1. Transactions

Not much is happening yet. The Yankees added Marco Luciano to their 40-man roster, while several players filed for minor league free agency. One player who “stands out” for the fun factor is outfielder Luis Durango. The slap-hitting outfielder hit .320/.377/.386 in 84 games between Tampa, Hudson Valley, and Somerset. The Double-A gauntlet didn’t bother him much, as he hit .294/.368/.333 in 25 games.

Durango has no power. Even as a left-handed bat, the Yankee Stadium porch wouldn’t help him. He rarely walks or strikes out but loves to run. He stole 46 bases in 2026.

Other free agents include Yanquiel Fernandez, who has MLB experience with Colorado; speedster Duke Ellis; former top prospect Jarred Kelenic; and DJ Gladney, who compiled a 20/20 campaign. Ellis is one of a handful of Yankees with a 1.000 career batting average. He went 1-for-1 in 2024.

Everyone I listed is an outfielder. The Yankees will replenish that outfield depth. A few of the players mentioned may re-sign. It’s not worth getting worked up over.

Additionally, the annual roster cleaning in the DSL is happening as the Yankees have released several prospects. None of them developed much, though outfielders Eddison Charles ($300,000), Eliezer Adames ($250,000) and Richard Meran ($100,000) received good bonuses. We talk about how high-profile signings flopped. Part of why the Yankees needed to change their international scouting is because mid-range guys like these never gave us any reason to think they could be useful even as trade bait.

By the way, while it isn’t canceled yet, the last time we had a work stoppage, the Rule 5 draft was cancelled.

2. MLB Trade Rumors Predictions

I have loved reading their predictions for as long as they have been doing them.

Their writers have listed Teruaki Sato, Brandon Lowe, David Bednar (unanimous), Luis Arraez, Carson Kelly, Paul Blackburn, and Jonathan Loaisiga as targets.

Let’s look at these players:

Bednar is easy. The Yankees haven’t spent big on a closer in a while, but I think they would have done so for Devin Williams if he had a strong 2025 campaign. Bednar feels like a no-brainer. There aren’t other options on the current roster. They could explore a deal for Mason Miller or look at other free-agent options, but why complicate it?

Sato must sign before the lockout (true for all posted players). He is a 1B/3B/LF/RF who won the Triple Crown in 2026, posting a .306/.383/.609 triple slash with 39 home runs and 106 RBI.

As a left-handed-hitting third baseman, Sato will make you drool. If he is an average-ish defensive third baseman, his offense (even if it won’t match his Japanese output) will put him somewhere in the top two tiers of MLB third basemen. His ability to play third comes with questions. As with Munetaka Murakami, he has swing-and-miss concerns. Additionally, scouts have questioned his ability to hit left-handed pitching.

While teams will be interested in playing him there, Sato never played first base in Japan.

Lowe and Arraez couldn’t be more different offensively. Arraez is a contact beast, while Lowe relies on power. He carries a .483 career SLG and has cleared 30 home runs three times. Arraez, meanwhile, is in the 100th percentile in Squared Up%, Whiff%, and K%.

One area where the players are similar is defense. Not previously known for their defensive prowess, both became above-average defensive second basemen in 2026. The Yankees may have faith in Anthony Volpe. I have no idea. If they don’t, Lowe and Arraez are obvious targets.

How would Kelly fit in with Austin Wells? A strict platoon situation likely wouldn’t satisfy Kelly, who hit .258/.336/.376 in 121 games for the Cubs in 2026. He fits the need for contact in the lineup. However, he doesn’t fit what the Yankees look for defensively, as he is an average-ish framer and poor at throwing out base stealers. His elite defensive skill is blocking. However, the Yankees are amazingly good at improving catching defense (I wrote that sentence on November 5).

Blackburn becoming a Top 50 free agent was not on my Spring Training bingo card. But the proof is in the performance, as he posted a remarkable 1.82 ERA in 82 innings over 60 games. That ERA ranked third among relievers, behind Louis Varland (1.27) and Bryan Baker (1.44).

I saved Loaisiga for last. Your first reaction may be, “Noooooooooo!” You won’t find a Yankees fan who dislikes Loaisiga, but injuries remain a concern. From 2023 to 2025, he appeared in 50 games, compiling a 3.51 ERA (5.13 FIP) over 51.1 innings. The Yankees showed no interest before 2026 (rightfully so), and he put together one of his best-ever campaigns. In 67 games for the Diamondbacks, he posted a 2.42 ERA (2.88 FIP) in 67 innings with a 54.3% GB. Like Blackburn, he doesn’t miss bats (18.4% K), though he is one of the best pitchers in baseball at limiting walks and hard contact.

Bottom Line

As I said, I love reading the predictions.

Arraez vs. Lowe is a fun debate. We keep waiting for his one elite skill (contact) to decline, but it hasn’t happened. His 46-game sample with the Phillies wasn’t inspiring (.278/.309/.369), though he struck out only seven times in 191 PA (3.7%). As you may suspect, BABIP played a role in that decline.

Lowe struck out at a 28.8% rate in 2026 but was fantastic otherwise, hitting .260/.331/.493. His defense helped his WAR (5.4 bWAR/4.9 fWAR). For comparison, Arraez was worth 2.9 bWAR and 4.1 fWAR. Both showed defensive improvement, but DRS wasn’t impressed with Arraez.

Sato is risky. If “contact” is your focus this winter, he is not for you. Given the questions about how his power will translate, he could be a watered-down Murakami. A watered-down version of a three-outcomes player is a human red flag. The question about hitting left-handed pitching means the Yankees would need a right-handed third-base bat.

Kelly makes sense in theory. However, he will have to accept less playing time if the Yankees keep Wells. In 2026, he hit .298/.375/.496 against LHP and .239/.318/.320 against RHP. The extreme split shows up throughout his career. His strong platoon split could earn him playing time at designated hitter or first base. The Cubs played him at first base four times in 2026. He hadn’t played there before.  I am intrigued, given Wells’ .122/.192/.244 line against LHP in 2026.

The bigger fish is Ryan Jeffers, though he would only sign if he is the full-time option.

3. Omar Minaya, Brian Sabean, Tanner Swanson and Shelley Duncan Leave

First: Omar Minaya did play professional baseball briefly after being drafted in the 14th round by the Athletics in 1978. He also played professionally in Italy. Baseball Reference, however, is linking to a two-way player who made his professional debut in 2026 for the unaffiliated New York Collegiate League. That’s your useless fact for the day.

I will start with Duncan. He has done things the “right way.” Call me old-fashioned, but I like it when coaches pay their dues in the minors before earning MLB jobs. Call me a hypocrite for loving Matt Blake. I accept that.

A fan favorite because of his size and WWE-like personality, Duncan won the International League Manager of the Year Award in 2025. Interestingly, he drew criticism in 2007 when he wrote “Red Sox Suck!” in a youngster’s autograph book. That 10-year-old is now a 29-year-old executive in the Red Sox organization. I made that last sentence up, but it would make for a fun D-movie plot.

I am not concerned about losing Duncan. He found a team that offered an MLB job, and he took it. The Yankees obviously liked the job he was doing but didn’t see him as an MLB coach.

Swanson receives a lot of credit for helping Yankees catchers improve defensively. Austin Wells was considered a bat-first (imagine that) prospect when he was called up but has developed into a reliable defensive catcher.

I think losing him hurts more than losing Duncan, though the Yankees’ catching pipeline is years away from contributing. He is young (44) and probably wants to manage someday. That opportunity could come with the Yankees, for all we know.

If Brad Ausmus earns a managerial opportunity (he interviewed with the Astros), he will need a replacement. The Yankees couldn’t ask Duncan or Swanson to hang around, just in case. If you want to argue that they should replace Ausmus regardless, who am I to argue?

As for the front office shake-up, whatever. Minaya and Sabean are old-school guys who didn’t change the bottom line. Call them scapegoats. I don’t care. They are relatively meaningless in the big picture.

4. Arizona Fall League All-Stars

SS Dax Kilby, 1B Kyle West, and RHP Chris Veach made the squad.

If you don’t know about Kilby, which of the infinite number of rocks on Earth have you been living under? The Yankees have worked on Kilby’s swing. If that makes you nervous, I understand. In 16 Arizona Fall League games, however, he is hitting .288/.347/.591 with 12 extra-base hits (6 doubles, 4 triples, 2 HR). As a comparison, he had 10 extra-base hits in 36 games for the FCL/Tampa in 2026.

West, a first baseman with less-than-ideal strikeout numbers, is launching bombs in Arizona. In 21 games, he is hitting .257/.361/.543 with 6 home runs and 17 RBI. The strikeouts are still there (23 in 83 plate appearances; 27.7%). I don’t view West as a big prospect, but most of his home runs aren’t cheapies.

Veach has a 3.38 ERA over 10.2 innings with 14 K and 5 BB. The undrafted 24-year-old owns a 2.30 ERA and 114/39 K/BB over 86 minor league innings. Most relief prospects are converted starters. That isn’t true of Veach, who never started a game during his 57-game collegiate career.

5. A bunch of plans – which is most important?

I would rank them:

1. Second base;
2. Third base;
3. Relief pitching;
4. Catcher

The Yankees don’t have a second baseman. While they love Volpe, I doubt they want Year 5 of the same old, same old. Maybe he can replace Amed Rosario.

The Yankees do have a third baseman under contract, but his offense is bad, and his defense has declined. What exactly is Ryan McMahon? An expensive paperweight?

I want power arms in the bullpen. While Bednar isn’t your traditional high-octane closer, I want the Yankees to re-sign him. Beyond that, the Yankees lack that strikeout arm.  Will they permanently move Carlos Lagrange into a relief role? Would they give up a draft pick to sign Adrian Morejon, who was offered the $20M+ qualifying offer? He will want a big long-term deal to turn that down.  Do they believe in Evan Phillips, an oft-injured reliever who was throwing 97 MPH down the stretch for the Dodgers? The market isn’t filled with sure things. That isn’t surprising, as teams tend to hold on tight to power arms. Trades are possible.

I talked about the catcher position above. I think the Yankees love Wells, which limits the free agents they can target. If Kelly is open to platooning, he could be a good target. I have no interest in former Yankee Gary Sanchez.