Tom's Sports Blog

A look at the resumes of some of the intriguing mid-major schools. I am not including VCU, St. Mary’s or any of the Mountain West schools. Rather, I am looking at deep sleepers.

UC-San Diego (Big West; 22-4, NET: 43) – The term “dangerous team” is overused on Selection Sunday, but nobody wants to see the Tritons as their first-round matchup. They split road games against two strong Mountain West teams (Utah State, San Diego State) and are in the Top 50 range in the KenPom offense and defense ratings. What else is fun? This is their first year of NCAA Tournament eligibility.
UC Irvine (Big West; 22-4, NET: 63) – If the Tritons don’t win the conference tournament, the Anteaters can fill the void as a dangerous tournament team. Their overall profile isn’t as strong (their toughest non-conference game is at Oregon State, which they lost by 12). 54-year-old coach Russ Turner deserves a “step up” job.
Drake (MVC; 23-3, NET: 56) – The Bulldogs won the Charleston Classic, knocking off Vanderbilt by 11 in the title game. Even with that and a potentially gaudy record, an at-large bid is not likely in the cards, given their three conference losses. If they make the tournament, their ability to control tempo (very slow) could cause a headache for their first-round opponent.
Yale (Ivy; 16-6, NET: 66) – The Bulldogs have emerged as the Ivy League favorites, and they are fresh off of a first-round shocker in 2024 (defeated Auburn in a 13-vs-4 game). While they don’t own Quadrant 1 wins, they played Purdue within eight on the road early in the season.
McNeese (Southland; 20-6, NET: 70) – Never afraid to challenge themselves, the Cowboys lost to Alabama by eight and Mississippi State by three in the non-conference. Owners of one of the best non-conference schedules in the country have predictably dominated within their conference. They were 30-3 heading into the NCAA Tournament last year but drew Gonzaga. I would love to see if they can get over the hump this year. Head coach Will Wade had a controversial tenure at LSU but will that be forgiven with the new NIL/transfer rules?
Liberty (Conference USA; 21-5, NET: 68) – I love it when strong mid-major schools face off. That happened earlier this year when Liberty knocked off McNeese in the Paradise Jam championship (after knocking off Kansas State in the semi-finals). Unlike McNeese, Liberty’s non-conference slate wasn’t impressive, but their ability to knock down a high percentage of three-pointers makes them a dangerous opponent.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (23-2) (1) – As strong as the SEC is, no other team is in the neighborhood of Auburn’s 14 Quadrant 1 wins. Defeating Alabama on the road further cements their greatness.
2. Duke (22-3) (3) – The Blue Devils need to be careful with Clemson only one game back. The relatively weak ACC makes it hard for them to improve their #1 seed resume, so beating Illinois this weekend would be big towards that effort.
3. Florida (22-3) (4) – The Gators, a top-ten offense and defense, have a stronger overall schedule than Duke – however, Duke played a tougher non-conference slate. The race for the #1 seeds will be fascinating.
4. Houston (21-4) (5) – The Cougars continue to be the nation’s lone unbeaten road squad, adding Arizona to their list of victims.
5. Alabama (21-4) (2) – It’s tough to find that spot where you want to “drop” a team sometimes. This ranking is appropriate, though you can argue them ahead of Houston. It’s razor-thin.
6. Tennessee (21-5) (6) – Avenged their earlier loss to Vanderbilt. This followed their road loss to Kentucky, who swept the Volunteers. “Holding serve” with their ranking is appropriate.
7. Texas A&M (20-5) (8) – Winners of five in a row, four of their next five games are against Mississippi State (road), Tennessee, Florida (road), and Auburn. That schedule keeps them in the #1 seed conversation.
8. Wisconsin (20-5) (10) – On December 10th, the Badgers lost their third straight game, causing some nervousness in Madison. They are 11-2 since, including their road conquest of Purdue. Please don’t sleep on their resume.
9. Texas Tech (20-5) (12) – Their 111-106 double-overtime win over Arizona State was entertaining. When margins are slim, losing to St. Joseph’s (neutral) and UCF (home) will impact your seed.
10. St. John’s (22-4) (9) – Their loss to Villanova was rough, but the follow-up (win over Creighton) was more important. The Red Storm will need to collapse to lose the regular-season title.
11. Iowa State (20-5) (14) – The conference title is out of reach, but if they can beat Houston on the road this weekend…
12. Michigan (20-5) (15) – Even with the hiring of Dusty May, nobody’s bingo card included a 20-5, Big Ten-leading Michigan squad. They are off until Friday when they welcome Michigan State to Ann Arbor.
13. Maryland (20-6) (17) – I have picked on their non-conference schedule all year, but the Terrapins have six Quadrant 1 wins, no bad losses, and are a top 20 offensive and defensive squad.
14. Marquette (19-6) (16) – Not much to say about the Golden Eagles this week.
15. Purdue (19-7) (7) – The computers still like Purdue, and for good reason: 21 of their 26 games are in Quadrant 1/2. They are 14-7. The Boilermakers are in a little slump, which isn’t unexpected.
16. Michigan State (20-5) (13) – Congrats to Tom Izzo on breaking Bobby Knight’s Big Ten record. The Spartans are in the Big Ten race, with two huge games this week (Purdue, and Michigan).
17. Clemson (21-5) (20) – It’s hard to get a read on the Tigers, but they followed up their win over Duke with a 20-point win over North Carolina and a 26-point road win over Florida State. They are in the Top 25 in the KenPom.
18. Missouri (19-6) (22) – The Tigers survived their gauntlet before having things ease up a bit last week (blowout wins over Oklahoma and Georgia (road)). For an SEC squad, the rest of their schedule is manageable – though a big game against Alabama awaits this week.
19. Kentucky (17-8) (23) – The Wildcats have wins over Tennessee (2), Florida, Texas A&M, and Duke. Their defense escapes them at times, but they have established that they can beat anyone.
20. Arizona (17-8) (11) – The Wildcats lost a pair last week, but there is no denying their overall strength. With expectations lower, will they “surprise” during the Big Dance?
21. Mississippi State (18-7) (19) – The Bulldogs are 6-6 within the SEC, struggling somewhat against the upper tier. That said, they completed a sweep of Ole Miss last week.
22. Ole Miss (19-7) (18)—Despite being swept by Mississippi State, the computers like the Rebels more. This can be tough to understand, but don’t overanalyze things.
23. Saint Mary’s (23-4) (25) – The Gaels are 9-4 in Quadrant 1/2. The NCAA Tournament hasn’t been nice to them, but it only takes one run…
24. Kansas (17-8) (21) – Road games are an issue for the Jayhawks. Their only in-conference road wins are against Central Florida, Cincinnati (solid), and TCU. It’s tough to dismiss a team with their talent level, but where are the results?
25. Louisville (20-6) (NR) – Their early-season loss to Duke hurts their shot at winning the regular-season title, though they did defeat Clemson, which could impact a 3-way tie for the title.

Dropped Out:

Creighton (18-8) (24) – The Blue Jays are good, but they blew their shot at taking over the conference lead by losing two games last week.

Just Missed:

Memphis (21-5) – The AAC is so mediocre that it’s hard for me to justify their struggles. Sure, they are 11-2 within the conference, but too many wins are close, and losing to Wichita State is bad.
New Mexico (22-4) – The Lobos have won eight in a row, including two wins over Utah State and a conquest of Boise State. The clear leaders of the Mountain West pack, a solid non-conference slate will help their at-large cause if it comes to that.
UCLA (19-7) – The Bruins kept it close against Illinois on the road, following it up with a win over Indiana.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (21-2) (1) – How good are the Tigers? I would have debated whether they should stay at #1 even if Duke won their game.
2. Alabama (20-3) (3) – Auburn’s loss allowed Alabama to tie them atop the SEC. They still play each other twice. The first game is this weekend. Defense won’t be their calling card, but they are now in the Top 40 in defensive efficiency.
3. Duke (20-3) (2) – The Blue Devils proved one thing: It is hard to go unbeaten in conference play, no matter how much better you are than the competition. They are still the lone team in the top five offensively and defensively.
4. Florida (20-3) (6) – The lone knock on the Gators is a mediocre non-conference schedule. A win at Auburn erases a little of that.
5. Houston (19-4) (4) – The Cougars are the only power conference school without a road loss.
6. Tennessee (20-4) (5) – Beat Missouri and Oklahoma (road game) and move down a spot? It comes down to rewarding Florida for their win.
7. Purdue (19-5) (7) – The Boilermakers are 11-1 in their last 12 games and 14-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 contests.
8. Texas A&M (18-5) (10) – The Aggies have four SEC road wins (Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri).
9. St. John’s (21-3) (12) – The Red Storm needed to prove themselves last week and passed the test. Villanova (road) and red-hot Creighton will try to humble them.
10. Wisconsin (19-5) (14) – The Badgers are 9th best in OFFENSIVE efficiency and their tempo rating is mid-tier. That isn’t their typical style (304th in Adjusted Tempo last season)
11. Arizona (17-6) (17) – One of the hottest teams in the country, the Wildcats – Houston game on Saturday may determine the Big 12 champion.
12. Texas Tech (18-5) (9) – Played Arizona within nine on the road and are the only team to beat the Wildcats since December 14th.
13. Michigan State (19-4) (11) – The Spartans lost a pair on the West Coast but bounced back with a home win over Oregon. Their one game against Purdue is coming soon.
14. Iowa State (18-5) (8) – TCU isn’t very good, but the Cyclones needed that blowout to stop the bleeding. No longer a #1 seed contender.
15. Michigan (18-5) (22) – Only one blowout loss and one game in Quadrant 4. The Cardiac Wolverines’ have outscored their opponents by 18 in their last five wins.
16. Marquette (18-6) (13) – This may be too high for the slumping Golden Eagles, but it’s still a solid profile. Their schedule eases up before revenge games against UConn and St. John’s to close the season.
17. Maryland (18-6) (15) – Their poor non-conference slate knocks them down, but they are 2-3 in Quadrant 1A games, all within in the Big Ten. All three losses were close road games (Purdue, Ohio State, Oregon)
18. Ole Miss (18-6) (NR) – The Rebels didn’t play a great non-conference schedule. However, the strength of the SEC has pushed their overall SOS to one of the toughest. Does it get easier? That’s funny, as their remaining schedule includes Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida.
19. Mississippi State (17-6) (25) – The Bulldogs received a much-needed break, playing only one game last week (a road win over Georgia). Their next three games? Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M.
20. Clemson (19-5) (20) – The Tigers put pressure on Duke with their Saturday win, as they own the conference tiebreaker. The profile is middling but (obviously) tournament-worthy.
21. Kansas (16-7) (16) – The computers still love the Jayhawks, thanks to a strong non-conference schedule and only six Quad 3/Quad 4 games. That said, they aren’t playing near expectations, following up a quality win over Iowa State with a loss to Kansas State.
22. Missouri (17-6) (18) – The Tigers lost two games last week by a combined seven points against Tennessee (road) and Texas A&M. They’ll live.
23. Kentucky (16-7) (19) – Their profile is up-and-down but the Wildcats are 7-6 in Quadrant 1. They are a mid-tier SEC team, which is nothing to be ashamed about.
24. Creighton (18-6) (NR) – The Blue Jays are (suddenly) the only threat to a St. John’s conference championship. If they defeat UConn and St. John’s this week, they will be in the driver’s seat.
25. Saint Mary’s (21-4) (21) – An 8-4 record in Quadrant 1/2. Their loss to San Francisco isn’t damaging, as their NET is in the Top 25.

Dropped Out:

UConn (16-7) (23) – Their defense is not championship caliber. Can they flip the switch? Certainly. But they have to prove it.
Oregon (16-8) (24) – The Ducks are 40th in the KenPom and 35th in the NET. Their strength of schedule + Quad 1 wins will impress the committee but the bleeding must stop.

Just Missed:

Memphis (20-4) – Plenty of wins, a middling computer profile. I feel like the outlier by keeping them out of the Top 25.
New Mexico (20-4) – The Lobos have taken over the Mountain West, courtesy of six straight wins. The committee will appreciate their strong schedule, though they will be docked for that awful home loss to New Mexico State (Quadrant 4).
UCLA (18-6) – After a strong start to their campaign, the Bruins fell off the radar during a 1-5 stretch. Now? They have won seven straight since that stretch, including wins over Wisconsin, Oregon, and Michigan State.
Louisville (18-6) – Their profile includes zero bad losses ane enough quality wins to keep them on the edge.

Most disappointing teams, by conference:
Big East:
Seton Hall (6-15, 1-10; NET: 193) – Nobody expected the Pirates to contend for a Big East title, but the reigning NIT champions should be better than this.

Big Ten:
Rutgers (11-11, 4-7; NET: 76) – It was a tough call between the Scarlett Knights and Indiana (14-8; NET: 65). However, everyone wanted to see their top freshman compete in the NCAA Tournament. That seems like a faraway dream.

Big 12:
Cincinnati (12-9, 2-8; NET: 48) – The Bearcats maintain a solid NET despite their 0-6 record in Quadrant 1 and seven Quadrant 4 wins. The good news is that their NET gives them a launching point if they were to wake up.

ACC:
North Carolina (13-10, 6-5; NET: 44) – Like Cincinnati, their NET (likely bolstered by a strong schedule and lack of bad losses) is within the at-large range. However, they are a brutal 1-9 in Quadrant 1 and it is hard to justify them being in contention.

SEC:
Arkansas (13-8, 2-6; NET: 47) – Another squad with a middling NET, Arkansas is bolstered by their conference and neutral court win over Michigan. However, they are 2-7 in Quadrant 1. How will the committee treat the bottom of the nation’s top league?

The race for the top seeds:

Auburn and Duke are in great shape to enter the NCAA Tournament as #1 seeds. Both have potential roadblocks. For Auburn, the Tigers plan in a tough conference, which has pros (plenty of Quadrant 1 games!) and cons (the potential for an extended cold stretch). Duke is the opposite – they play in a weaker conference, giving them little margin for error. For example, Auburn losing to South Carolina would be less damaging (by a long shot) than Duke losing to Miami.

The NET isn’t the only tool used to determine #1 seeds, but it is the NCAA’s official ranking system so it needs to be taken seriously. The teams that appear to be in contention for the other #1 seeds are Houston, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, and Iowa State. Three squads play in the SEC, while the other two are in the Big 12. Can a team from another conference sneak in? I don’t see it. The Big Ten has six teams in the NET Top 20, but the highest-ranked team (Purdue) is 10th in the NET and 8th in the KenPom. Expect the league to have a steady stream of squads on the 2-5 lines.

The Mountain West watch:

Once again, this conference is bunching up, which will cause a headache for the committee. Four teams are in the NETT Top 50, though only Utah State (19-3; NET: 39) is in the Top 40. It looks like a 2-bid league with the potential for three if we get an upset in the conference tournament. I do not see it falling to a 1-bid league.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (20-1) (1) – The Tigers are 12-1 (!!) in Quadrant 1.  One of the most remarkable regular seasons in recent history, but no one remembers if you don’t finish it.
2. Duke (19-2) (2) – 15 straight wins, including an annihilation of North Carolina. That said, the Blue Devils have been unable to put away the ACC, as Clemson is hanging in there.
3. Alabama (19-3) (7) – Their win over Georgia was their 11th 90+ point game. Still have two games with Auburn.
4. Houston (17-4) (5) – The Cougars are 1-3 in overtime games (their other loss was by five against Auburn on a neutral court)
5. Tennessee (18-4) (6) – Talk about revenge: They lost to Florida by 30 on 1/7. They defeated Florida by 20 on 2/1, holding one of the country’s best offenses to 44 points.
6. Florida (18-3) (4) – Brutal loss, but they remain one of three teams with a Top 10 offense and defense (KenPom). The other teams are Duke and Houston (Auburn misses by a nose).
7. Purdue (17-5) (9) – The Boilermakers lost one of college’s biggest stars this season and continue to motor along. Impressive.
8. Iowa State (17-4) (3) – Their loss to Kansas State, for now, falls into Quadrant 3. That won’t impact their tournament status but can eventually impact their tournament seed.
9. Texas Tech (17-4) (17) – Though their non-conference schedule was bad, the Red Raiders have still shut people like me up. They are 5-0 in conference road games, including their conquest of Houston.
10. Texas A&M (17-5) (13) – The Aggies are 12-5 in Quad 1/2 (7-5 in Quad 1). They have offensive struggles but their defense is elite.
11. Michigan State (18-3) (8) – The computers will hate you for losing to USC, but the road game still falls into Quadrant 1 (barely).
12. Saint John’s (19-3) (15) – The Red Storm is jumping up in the NET, but continues to be suppressed by their conference. We will find out how good they are (games vs. Marquette and UConn this week).
13. Marquette (18-4) (10) – Their loss to UConn falls into Quadrant 2 (for now). That said, they are an impressive 11-4 in Quad 1/2.
14. Wisconsin (17-5) (11) – Their loss at Maryland helps the Terrapins more than it hurts the Badgers.
15. Maryland (17-5) (19) – A squad with plenty of question marks most of the season is on a 4-game winning streak that includes wins vs. Illinois (road), Indiana (road), and Wisconsin (home). They have yet to lose a game by more than six.
16. Kansas (15-6) (12) – I’ve hinted at it for a month: There is something off with the ultra-talented Jayhawks. They need to flip that switch.
17. Arizona (15-6) (NR) – The hot Wildcats put a stamp on their revival with their win over Iowa State. The win over Arizona State was “chippy,” to put it mildly.
18. Missouri (17-4) (24) – If you want to get someone’s attention, win an SEC road game by 27 points.
19. Kentucky (15-6) (16) – A win over Tennessee on Wednesday primed them for a climb. Their home loss to Arkansas on Saturday knocked them back down a peg or two.
20. Clemson (18-4) (21) – The Tigers can shock the world by taking over the ACC lead with a win over Duke this weekend.
21. Saint Mary’s (20-3) (23) – Just like that, the Gaels go from zero Quad 1 wins to two, as they beat Santa Clara (road) and Gonzaga. Additionally, their loss to Boise State has climbed into Quadrant 1.
22. Michigan (16-5) (25) – Rutgers is underachieving, but beating them in New Brunswick is still an achievement. Their profile is amplified by having only one Quadrant 4 game.
23. UConn (16-6) (NR) – For their own confidence, they badly needed that win over Marquette. Now, it’s about the follow-up.
24. Oregon (16-5) (18) – The Ducks are hanging on by a thread, but I remain impressed by their eight Quad 1 wins.
25. Mississippi State (16-6) (14) – The Bulldogs were handed an 8-game gauntlet. They went 3-5. The schedule doesn’t ease up, and they need to start winning these games.

Dropped Out:

Illinois (15-7) (20) – The computers remain in love, which makes sense since they have split 12 Quadrant 1 games. I believe results matter, and the Fighting Illini are 2-4 in their last six games.
Louisville (16-6) (22) – The lack of power in the ACC impacts the league’s top teams any time they lose. Losing to Georgia Tech on the road was, at one time, nothing to be ashamed about.

Just Missed:

Creighton (16-6) – Work is needed, but the Blue Jays have won seven in a row and are 2-1 against St. John’s/Marquette/UConn. They play the three squads again, in succession between 2/8 and 2/16.
Ole Miss (16-6) – It’s been a rough stretch for the Rebels, but they are playing close road games in the SEC (including a win over Alabama).
Memphis (18-4) – What hurts Memphis? The losses to Arkansas State and Temple stand out (though Arkansas State is a sneaky Top 100 NET team). However, when you play in a middling conference, you will be hurt by winning close games against Rice, Wichita State, and East Carolina. The Tigers’ standout wins likely = a bid if they lose the conference tournament, but their margin for error isn’t wide.

A look at some of the mid-major/smaller leagues. The chances for multiple bids from these leagues are small.

In the Missouri Valley, a 2-team race is developing between Drake (18-2, 8-2; NET: 66) and Bradley (18-3, 9-1; NET: 64). They are iffy at-large candidates. Drake won their first meeting this season. Maybe a sweep and an appearance in the conference title game will earn them some respect in the war room.

The Mountain West should earn multiple bids, but it won’t be like recent seasons. Utah State (18-2, 8-1; NET: 31) and San Diego State (13-5, 6-3; NET: 43) are the likeliest candidates and the committee would likely look hard at New Mexico (17-4, 9-1; NET: 56) if they win the regular-season crown.

The usual suspects in the West Coast Conference (St. Mary’s and Gonzaga) are looking good. While neither is a serious threat for an at-large bid, Oregon State and Washington State are boosting the conference’s profile. Over half the conference is in the NET Top 100. Last season, only three of nine teams had that distinction.

The A-10 is going to struggle to earn a second bid. VCU (16-4, 6-1; NET: 45) would be their best hope at an at-large bid if they don’t win the conference tournament. Dayton (14-6, 4-3; NET: 69) turned some heads by playing North Carolina and Iowa State close before beating UConn and Marquette. A 3-game conference losing streak halted their momentum.

Memphis (16-4, 6-1; NET: 43) and North Texas (15-4, 6-1; NET: 48) may intrigue the committee out of the AAC but the rest of the conference is dreadful. Memphis’ five Quadrant 1 wins will help them. While all three of their Quadrant 1 games were close, North Texas couldn’t win any of them. That would hurt their resume.

The Big West’s UC-Irvine (18-3, 8-1; NET: 50) and the Southland’s McNeese (15-5, 9-0; NET: 59) are likely on the bubble of the bubble. UC-Irvine has a Quadrant 1 win (over San Diego) and three Quad 2 conquests. Meanwhile, McNeese lost to Alabama by eight and Mississippi State by four.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (18-1) (1) – You show strength by how often you blow teams out. You show heart when you win a close, defensive struggle.
2. Duke (17-2) (2) – See Auburn.
3. Iowa State (17-2) (3) – The Cyclones own six Quad 1 wins and are 6-2 in road/neutral contests.
4. Florida (18-2) (4) – The Gators are an 18-2 SEC squad floating under the radar. How does that happen?
5. Houston (16-3) (6) – I can watch highlights every day for the next five years and still not understand how they won that game against Kansas. By the way, for those wondering how the team that dominated the AAC would do in the Big 12: Houston is now 23-3 in regular-season Big 12 play over the last two seasons.
6. Tennessee (17-3) (5) – It is justified to say that their occasional offense struggles are scary.
7. Alabama (17-3) (7) – It is justified to say that their occasional (?) defensive struggles are scary. But what a fun team to watch.
8. Michigan State (17-2) (8) – It isn’t the most mesmerizing 12-game winning streak in history, but wins are wins.
9. Purdue (16-5) (10) – How they manhandled Michigan after that loss to Ohio State was impressive. No bad losses, strong schedule.
10. Marquette (17-3) (11) – Five Quadrant 1 victories, including wins over Purdue and Wisconsin (both in double digits)
11. Wisconsin (16-4) (15) – I can forgive a 2-point road loss on the West Coast (UCLA). They mauled Nebraska upon going home.
12. Kansas (14-5) (9) – It’s a Top 10 resume on the KenPom and NET – however, it feels like something is missing. That said, 99 times out of 100, they win that game against Houston.
13. Texas A&M (15-5) (13) – The 6-5 Quad 1 record (10-5 Quad 1/2) is a separator. Their defense is the calling card.
14. Mississippi State (16-4) (14) – If ranking teams feels like a chore, you aren’t alone. The Bulldogs are 2-3 in their last five games, but those losses are to Kentucky, Auburn, and Tennessee. Comfortably mid-pack in the SEC.
15. St. John’s (17-3) (22) – They are a Top 25 NET squad despite a 1-3 record in Quadrant 1 and a whopping 12 wins in Quad 3/4. The Big East isn’t helping their cause, but they are winning the games.
16. Kentucky (14-5) (12) – Like Texas A&M, they own a 6-5 Quad 1 record. However, they are 0-0 in Quad 2. Wins over Duke and Florida enhance their resume.
17. Texas Tech (15-4) (NR) – Their non-conference SOS is bad. That said, the Red Raiders are 6-1 in their last seven games (the loss was an overtime thriller to Iowa State).
18. Oregon (16-4) (17) – The Ducks aren’t the team they were earlier in the season, but the 8-2 Quad 1 record can’t be ignored. Is that slightly misleading? Yes, as five of those wins are in Quad 1B. Could they have peaked early?
19. Maryland (16-5) (NR) – Their week consisted of back-to-back road wins over Illinois (by 21) and Indiana. Like Texas Tech, there are serious questions over their non-conference SOS (one of the worst in the country).
20. Illinois (14-6) (19) – Every team is entitled to a blowout loss from time to time. They had no answers for red-hot Maryland.
21. Clemson (17-4) (24) – The Tigers are flying through the underbelly of a weakened ACC. Big home game against Duke on 2/8.
22. Louisville (15-5) (NR) – The Cardinals are an impressive 5-5 in Quadrant 1, though only one of those wins is in the upper half. Unfortunately, they don’t get a second shot at Duke.
23. Saint Mary’s (18-3) (25) – It’s a fun resume, but trust that I realize they are 0-0 in Quadrant 1.
24. Missouri (16-4) (21) – Like Maryland, they own one of the worst non-conference SOS. However, they have piled up some impressive wins in the SEC.
25. Michigan (14-5) (16) – The Purdue loss was the first time they were non-competitive this season.

Dropped Out:

Ole Miss (15-5) (18) – How do you rate three consecutive SEC losses, all of which were by small margins? That’s the tricky part about ranking SEC squads.
West Virginia (13-6) (20) – The Mountaineers haven’t been computer darlings, and losing to Arizona State and Kansas State doesn’t help their cause. This year’s Jekyll and Hyde squad?
UConn (14-6) (23) – The Huskies aren’t in any tournament danger, but their computer ranking is falling fast. Their defense is 132nd in the KenPom. Ouch.

Just Missed:

Vanderbilt (16-4) – Close call between them and Michigan for #25. Their bad non-conference slate was the difference maker (other teams with bad non-conference slates have better overall resumes)
Arizona (13-6) – 9-1 in their last ten games + a solid schedule. Dangerous.
Creighton (14-6) – A few weeks ago, I commented on how the Big East was a 3-team league. The Blue Jays are starting to change that, as the KenPom ranks them better than UConn.

“How many true National Championship contenders are there?”

I like to look at teams in the Top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. According to KenPom, seven teams currently fit that criteria:
Duke
Auburn
Houston
Iowa State
Florida
Illinois
Arizona (20th in both!)

Teams that fall just outside the criterion are Tennessee (22nd offense), Purdue (21st defense), Michigan (24th defense), and Michigan State (21st offense).

It isn’t shocking that the top five teams listed above are the top five in the KenPom.

If you were filling out your bracket today, you would do well having those 11 teams win at least a game or two. You will lose a few to the inevitable upsets, but your gains should outweigh that.

Thankfully for everyone, we aren’t filling out brackets today.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (17-1) (1) – The Tigers are passing tests, as they mauled Mississippi State before grinding out at Georgia. They are now 10-1 (that isn’t a misprint) in Quad 1 games.
2. Duke (16-2) (2) – The KenPom ranks them third in offense and second in defense. They don’t play until Saturday, a tricky road game against Wake Forest.
3. Iowa State (15-2) (3) – The “Giant Killers” known as West Virginia humbled the Hawkeyes, who maintain their position at number 3 anyway.
4. Florida (16-2) (4) – “They lost to Missouri at home and maintain their position?!?!”  Would you be shocked if losing to Missouri at home falls into Quadrant 1?
5. Tennessee (16-2) (5) – If you haven’t figured it out yet, there is no such thing as a “bad” loss in the SEC. Their one-point road loss against Vanderbilt barely moves the needle.
6. Houston (14-3) (10) – Two of their three losses are in overtime. The third was a neutral court loss to Auburn. They go to Kansas this weekend.
7. Alabama (15-3) (6) – The closest thing to the old-school Oklahoma and Loyola Marymount squads (they average 90.2 PPG). That said, they couldn’t survive a defensive battle against Ole Miss.
8. Michigan State (16-2) (12) – One of the few top teams to survive the week unscathed, the Spartans have won 11 in a row (7-0 in Big Ten play)
9. Kansas (13-4) (8) – Maybe they are the victims of expectations, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to call them underachievers.
10. Purdue (15-4) (19) – The Boilermakers are a computer’s dream, thanks to four road and Quadrant 1 triumphs. It doesn’t hurt that the KenPom ranks their schedule as the third toughest.
11. Marquette (15-3) (7) – It will cost you if you lose games outside of the top tier in the Big East. The Golden Eagles are the only conference squad in the NET Top 25.
12. Kentucky (14-4) (11) – It’s hard to win a shootout against Alabama, but Kentucky played them within five (102-97). The Wildcats own six Quadrant 1 triumphs, the third-highest total in the nation.
13. Texas A&M (14-4) (9)—Their defense, much-heralded early in the season, is now 11th in the KenPom. Of course, that is still a top defensive squad.
14. Mississippi State (15-3) (14) – No match for Auburn, but bounced back nicely to take an overtime game over in-state rival Mississippi.
15. Wisconsin (15-3) (20) – They aren’t beating the best in the Big Ten, but they are piling up wins.
16. Michigan (14-4) (13) – The metrics are solid, and the Wolverines have yet to suffer a multi-possession loss. Essentially, this squad isn’t good for your heart. Last year’s disaster wasn’t good for your soul.
17. Oregon (15-3) (15) – The Ducks have lost some of their edge, but their eight Quadrant 1 wins trail only Auburn. By the way, yes – it is crazy that their three losses are home games.
18. Ole Miss (15-3) (21) – I will reward a team that splits road games against Alabama and Mississippi State.
19. Illinois (13-5) (16) – Another computer darling, the Fighting Illini lost a tough one on the road to Michigan State on Sunday. They own a Top 20 offense and defense (KenPom)
20. West Virginia (13-4) (NR) – The Mountaineers have wins over Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas (road), and Iowa State. Their resume doesn’t impress the computers much, but it impresses me.
21. Missouri (15-3) (NR) – We have a new intriguing SEC team in town, as the Tigers knocked off Florida on the road. Their biggest issue is an awful non-conference slate, though they did knock off Kansas.
22. St. John’s (16-3) (NR) – You can only beat what is on your schedule. I still don’t love the singular Quadrant 1 win and 12 Quad 3/4 triumphs. The Red Storm don’t play Marquette or UConn until February.
23. UConn (13-5) (17) – Liam McNeeley’s injury doesn’t help, but where’s the depth?
24. Clemson (15-4) (NR) – To their credit, the Tigers were one of the few teams to win during the ACC-SEC Challenge (Kentucky). Can they give Duke a run? We will find out in a few weeks.
25. Saint Mary’s (16-3) (NR) – The winners of six straight, the Gaels are making their case for a potential at-large bid.

Dropped Out:

Gonzaga (14-6) (18) – A random road loss to a decent Oregon State squad wasn’t alarming. A home loss to Santa Clara, who torched the Bulldogs with a 103-point effort, is alarming.
Memphis (14-4) (22) – Is it unfair to expect a team to win every conference game? Yes. The Tigers own an impressive five Quadrant 1 wins but their losses can be exasperating. Given their history, they’ll be back in the Top 25 soon enough.
Arizona (11-6) (23) – The Wildcats don’t have to do much to make the Big Dance. I almost kept them in the Top 25 over Saint Mary’s.
Utah State (16-2) (24) – Losing in the Mountain West won’t be as forgiving this season. They are 41st in the NET and 3-0 in Quadrant 1, both impressive metrics.
Georgia (14-4) (25) – Back-to-back games against Tennessee and Auburn set them up for failure. To their credit, they hung tough with Auburn.

Just Missed:

Maryland (14-5) – The Terrapins are interesting, but their 0-4 Quadrant 1 record sticks out. That said, a 4-1 mark in Quadrant 2 keeps them afloat.
Louisville (14-5) – Michigan gets a lot of press for their turnaround, but Louisville’s is also impressive. The Cardinals have eight straight wins and three Quadrant 1 triumphs to fall back on.
Texas Tech (13-4) – The KenPom loves the Red Raiders, ranking them 12th despite a poor non-conference slate. While that is alarming, they have a win over Arizona and took Iowa State to overtime.
Vanderbilt (15-3) – I am including a fourth team this week for evaluation purposes. The Commodores’ win over Tennessee elevates their profile, but they must do more. The good news is that there are opportunities: Their next four games are against Alabama, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Florida. Three of those four games are on the road.

I have asked this question a few times, and it feels appropriate now:

What happens when the SEC starts to eat each other?

The idea that nearly the entire conference will get into the NCAA Tournament is still valid. Mid-major leagues aren’t loading up with potential at-large bids, and the ACC/Big East aren’t juicy bid leagues either. Someone has to grab those bids, and the SEC/Big Ten/Big 12 figure to grab most of them.

But how do we justify teams with bad conference records? Potential tournament teams Oklahoma, Arkansas, LSU, Texas, and South Carolina have started 0-3. A tough conference doesn’t mean everyone will finish between 10-8 and 8-10. Good teams will likely finish 6-12 or 5-13. How do you handle them? This is a story that will evolve as the season goes on.

The Big Ten will have a similar storyline, though their teams figure to be more tightly bunched. The Big 12 is top-heavy (and that top is impressive!). Cincinnati, like Rutgers in the Big Ten, is one of the nation’s most disappointing teams.

As for the mid-majors, it isn’t promising for the “little guys” this season. The WCC features Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, two teams hardly seen as mid-major programs. If we look beyond them and the Mountain West teams, the highest-ranked team (NET) is San Diego, currently 53rd thanks to an impressive road win over Utah State. It won’t end up being a resume for at-large dreams, however. The A-10 is a dead zone, as Dayton’s slump has dropped them to 61st.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (15-1) (1) – The Tigers have yet to play the best of the SEC, but they won two conference road games last week.
2. Duke (14-2) (4) – Imagine combining an elite defense with a super freshman scorer. The Blue Devils are a problem.
3. Iowa State (14-1) (3) – A miracle win on Saturday. The Cyclones are the only team besides Duke with a top-ten offensive and defensive rating.
4. Florida (15-1) (6) – Individual games shouldn’t influence rankings much because you will spin in circles. However, their win over Tennessee is impossible to ignore.
5. Tennessee (15-1) (2) – Did their loss to Florida unmask a less-than-ideal offense? Or should we understand that elite teams sometimes have bad days?
6. Alabama (14-2) (5) – Texas A&M’s defense is legit. The Crimson Tide scored 94 points against the Aggies. Alabama is averaging 96.3 PPG in three SEC contests.
7. Marquette (14-2) (8) – The only Big East squad with a top 20 offense and defense.
8. Kansas (12-3) (12) – It’s been over a month since the Jayhawks allowed an opponent to score more than 62 points.
9. Texas A&M (13-3) (7) – Their trademark defense faltered against Alabama. To their credit, the offense mostly kept up.
10. Houston (12-3) (15) – The ranking systems love them, and rightfully so. However, they remain 0-3 in Quadrant 1.
11.  Kentucky (13-3) (10) – Fun with college basketball: The Wildcats have conference wins over Florida and Mississippi State but weren’t competitive against Georgia.
12. Michigan State (14-2) (16) – Their 5-0 Big Ten start includes three road wins.
13. Michigan (13-3) (18) – UCLA is slumping, but beating the Bruins by 19 on the road is wildly impressive. The Wolverines have yet to lose a game by more than two points.
14. Mississippi State (14-2) (13) – Definition of a 6-game gauntlet: Kentucky (loss), Auburn (road), Mississippi (home), Tennessee (road), South Carolina (road), Alabama (home).
15. Oregon (15-2) (11) – Back-to-back conference road wins = dropping four spots? One of my favorite sayings is that a drop in my rankings often isn’t a reflection of anything you did wrong.
16. Illinois (12-4) (9) – “Didn’t they beat Oregon by a zillion on the road?” Yes. “Didn’t you say you Florida’s destruction of Tennessee is why they are ahead of them?” As I said, spin yourself in circles.
17. UConn (13-4) (14) – The Huskies are 111th in adjusted defense. I know they are dealing with an injury to a significant player, but their defense wasn’t spectacular with him either.
18. Gonzaga (14-4) (20) – The Bulldogs will remain loved by the computers. The schedule likely offers only one more Quadrant 1 opportunity (St. Mary’s on the road. The home game might fall into Quadrant 2.
19. Purdue (13-4) (NR) – Their six Big Ten games have been decided by double digits (5-1). The Boilermakers own two wins over the big, bad SEC (Alabama (home) and Ole Miss (neutral)).
20. Wisconsin (13-3) (23) – They have put their 3-game losing streak to Michigan, Marquette, and Illinois in the rearview mirror.
21.  Ole Miss (14-2) (NR) – Have I been too harsh? I don’t love their schedule, but they are 4-2 in Quadrant 1 and are off to a 3-0 start in the SEC.
22. Memphis (13-3) (22) – I won’t move them up or down this week. The Tigers have impressive wins and a horrible loss. They defeated East Carolina by only four at home.
23. Arizona (10-5) (NR) – A team needs to be special for me to rank them at 10-5. The Wildcats are better than you think, though I won’t ignore the 2-5 mark in Quadrant 1.
24. Utah State (16-1) (NR) – The Mountain West isn’t at last year’s level, but is still the top-ranked conference (NET) outside the “Big 5.” The Aggies’ 2-point loss to the University of San Diego suppresses their computer numbers.
25. Georgia (14-2) (NR) – Their SEC schedule is front-loaded. So far, the Bulldogs are holding their own (road loss to Ole Miss, home wins over Kentucky and Oklahoma). Their reward for good effort? Games this week against Tennessee (road) and Auburn (home). Yikes.

Dropped Out:

Oklahoma (13-3) (17) – Three straight losses after their 13-0 start. The computers weren’t in love with them at 13-0. At 13-3, they approach bubble status.
UCLA (11-5) (19) – The Bruins are 1-4 in their last five games. They have lost by a combined 37 points in their last two games.
Pittsburgh (12-4) (21) – Competiton for Duke? A 76-47 loss (followed by a home loss to Louisville) says otherwise.
Nebraska (12-4) (24) – The margins in a competitive Big Ten are small. Losing to Iowa in overtime on the road isn’t horrible. Losing by 36 at Purdue? That’s enough for a demotion.
West Virginia (12-3) (25) – As long as they don’t collapse, those wins over Gonzaga (neutral), Arizona (neutral), and Kansas (road) will carry a lot of weight in the committee room.

Just Missed:

Baylor (11-4) – The Bears have an interesting resume. Their 3-4 Quad 1 record includes a 0-4 mark in Top 25 games. They are firmly on the Top 25 bubble.
St. John’s (14-3) – The Big East has an obvious leader (Marquette) with two teams in the “second tier” (UConn and St. John’s). The Red Storm lacks a bad loss but has a singular Quad 1 victory.
Maryland (13-4) – Firmly in the Big Ten conversation, the Terrapins have run into bad luck: Their four losses are by a combined 19 points. Three of those games were against top competition (Marquette, Purdue, Oregon).

Top 25:

1. Auburn (13-1) (1) – The Tigers are on cruise control. Only two of their 13 wins were within single digits.
2. Tennessee (14-0) (2) – Only one of their 14 wins (Illinois) was within single digits.
3. Iowa State (12-1) (4) – Their 19-point romp over Baylor was a statement win.
4. Duke (12-2) (5) – It is safe to ask if there is any competition for the Blue Devils in the ACC.
5. Alabama (12-2) (6) – The Crimson Tide have four 100+ point efforts (Illinois and Oklahoma are amongst the victims)
6. Florida (13-1) (3) – The 5th highest-scoring squad in the nation was on the losing end of a 105-100 thriller against Kentucky. A style clash with Tennessee is next.
7. Texas A&M (12-2) (9) – Texas wasn’t much of a rival, as the Aggies torched them by 20. Scary good defensively.
8. Marquette (13-2) (10) – The metrics show they are the Big East’s best team.
9. Illinois (11-3) (22) – The Illini went to the West Coast and destroyed Oregon before squeaking past Washington.
10. Kentucky (12-2) (13) – Their high-octane offense outlasted Florida’s. The SEC is insanely strong, and the contrasting styles should make for some fun games.
11. Oregon (13-2) (8) – The Ducks tanked in the KenPom after that awful loss to Illinois, but I will stay bullish.
12. Kansas (10-3) (7) – The Jayhawks are losing annoying games and it is fair to ask why.
13. Mississippi State (13-1) (18) – How exactly did they lose to Butler in the non-conference?
14. UConn (12-3) (14) – The Huskies haven’t lost since Maui, but oof, you need to ignore many things to place them in the top ten.
15. Houston (10-3) (15) – I still want to see a signature win to move them up.
16. Michigan State (12-2) (17) – Road conference wins are gold, and the Spartans earned an impressive one over Ohio State.
17. Oklahoma (13-1) (11) – There were many questions about Oklahoma. Getting annihilated by Alabama doesn’t give them a favorable answer.
18. Michigan (11-3) (21) – Only two Big Ten squads are unbeaten in conference play (Michigan State and Michigan). Their three losses are by a combined five points.
19. UCLA (11-3) (12) – They have a win over Gonzaga but losses to North Carolina and Nebraska in their last three games.
20. Gonzaga (12-4) (20) – Pepperdine gave them a fight, but *yawn*.
21. Pittsburgh (12-2) (25) – The Panthers may be good enough to scare Duke.
22. Memphis (12-3) (NR)—Two weeks ago, I said I would never rank them again. I am a glutton for punishment.
23. Wisconsin (11-3) (NR) – Their wins over Arizona (starting to get their act together) and Pitt are looking more impressive.
24. Nebraska (12-2) (NR) – The Cornhuskers have a sneaky top-ten defense.
25. West Virginia (11-2) (NR) – Don’t look now, but the Mountaineers have wins over Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kansas. Their losses to Pitt and Louisville aren’t looking so bad.

Dropped Out:

Cincinnati (10-3) (16) – A bad non-conference schedule followed with back-to-back losses to Kansas State and Arizona to start Big 12 play. Ouch.
St. John’s (12-3) (19) – If you haven’t figured it out, signature wins are high on my list for team strength. The Red Storm continues to search for theirs.
Dayton (11-4) (23) – The Flyers will have to lick their wounds after a 20-point loss to George Washington.
Maryland (11-4) (24) – The games were close, but they lost to Washington and Oregon on the road.

Just Missed:

Mississippi (12-2) – I have yet to rank the Rebels because of schedule concerns.
Clemson (12-3) – Nice win over Kentucky and a 4-0 conference start. They don’t play Duke until February.
Utah State (14-1) – They are off to a big start in the Mountain West.

This was the last “quiet” week. Conference play goes into full gear this week, and it should be entertaining in this age of super conferences. There is a lot of talk that the SEC will get nearly the entire conference into the tournament, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. We know a few of the teams will struggle in conference play. How would the committee view an 18-14 SEC team vs. a 28-5 Drake squad?  I think they will lean towards the former, but the debates will be strong.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (11-1) (1) – The Tigers seemingly have zero weaknesses. If they do, the SEC competition will find it and exploit it.
2. Tennessee (12-0) (2) – We could circle that 1/7 “battle of the unbeaten” against Florida, but they have to get past Arkansas first.
3. Florida (13-0) (3) – For Florida to hold up their part of the bargain, they will need to beat Kentucky on the road.
4. Iowa State (10-1) (4) – A scheduling quirk has them playing Colorado three times (they played a “non-conference” tilt in Maui).
5. Duke (10-2) (5) – Their offense has climbed to 10th in efficiency, making the Blue Devils the only squad with a top-10 offense and defense.
6. Alabama (11-2) (6) – They will go as far as their explosive offense will take them.
7. Kansas (9-2) (7) – Played well against a good non-conference schedule. Iowa State is the conference’s best team, but Kansas isn’t far behind.
8. Oregon (12-1) (8) – None of the teams in my Top 10 are as surprising as the Ducks.
9. Texas A&M (11-2) (9) – A Top 20 non-conference schedule and a 6th-ranked defense is enough for me.
10. Marquette (11-2) (10) – As good as the Golden Eagles have been in recent years, their last Elite Eight appearance was in 2013. Is this the year that changes?
11. Oklahoma (13-0) (11) – The KenPom remains unconvinced (37th). They can prove how good they are in SEC play as they begin conference play with a game at Alabama followed by a home game against Texas A&M.
12. UCLA (11-2) (20)—Although their non-conference SOS was mediocre, they defeated Gonzaga and Arizona. Their conference road win over Oregon is as impressive as any this season.
13. Kentucky (10-2) (12) – They remain a mysterious SEC squad. Their resume is fine, but I wonder if their defense holds up.
14. UConn (10-3) (13) – Their defense is questionable, but their conference is more forgiving than Kentucky’s.
15. Houston (8-3) (14) – The KenPom is in love and I can see why (their offensive + defensive rankings = 14, behind only Duke and Auburn).
16. Cincinnati (10-1) (17) – Great defense, questionable schedule. Their vibe is similar to UCLA’s, but UCLA has bigger wins.
17. Michigan State (10-2) (18) – The Spartans want North Carolina to start rolling, as it would represent their only big non-conference conquest.
18. Mississippi State (11-1) (19) – Can the Bulldogs rise to the top of this most difficult conference?
19. St. John’s (11-2) (21) – Where would they be ranked if they hung on to defeat Baylor? Their two losses are by a combined four points.
20. Gonzaga (9-4) (16) – Final tally against the non-conference: Wins over Baylor, Arizona State, San Diego State, Indiana. Losses to West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn, and UCLA. The rest of their schedule is against a weakened WCC (St. Mary’s is the conference’s second-best squad according to the KenPom, ranked 48th)
21. Michigan (10-3) (22) – Western Kentucky was the unfortunate “next game” after that devastating loss to Oklahoma. They are a matchup nightmare.
22. Illinois (9-3) (23) – Massive showdown with Oregon to begin the new year.
23. Dayton (10-3) (24) – It will be interesting to see how the A-10 plays out this season. Dayton will be battle-tested (they own a Top 50 non-conference schedule). The next-best non-conference schedule is owned by St. Louis, at 188th.
24. Maryland (11-2) (25) – Given their dreadful non-conference slate, a big in-conference performance is required.
25. Pittsburgh (10-2) (NR) – We will find out how serious of a contender Pitt is when they visit Duke on January 7th.

Dropped Out:

San Diego State (8-3) (15) – They had the game against Utah State under control, only to lose it by a point. The Mountain West will be ultra-competitive.

Just Missed:

Arkansas (10-2) – They are close. They may jump into the Top 15 if they beat Tennessee on the road this week (they also play Ole Miss and Florida to open up SEC play – crazy)
Baylor (8-3) – Speaking of jumping into the Top 15, the Bears begin Big 12 play at Iowa State.
Memphis (10-3) – Their roller coaster non-conference is complete. They have the nation’s 4th strongest non-conference schedule, defeating UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, and Mississippi. Meanwhile, they lost a home game to Arkansas State.

What is going on in Piscataway?

Rutgers, with two of the best freshmen in the college game, is having trouble converting talent into wins. It isn’t the fault of those freshmen, as Dylan Harper averages 23.3 points per game while Airious (Ace) Bailey is at 17.6 points and 7.6 rebounds. Yet, they have losses to Kennesaw State and Princeton. They struggled with Seton Hall, a 5-7 squad ranked 136th in the KenPom. While it is justified to say that in-state rivalry games can be close regardless of strength, it stands out.

According to KenPom, the Scarlet Knights are a mediocre 67th offensively and an even-worse 107th defensively.

Is this a squad that is having trouble gelling? If so, expect them to be a dangerous Big Ten team as they figure that out. However, if they don’t figure it out, they will have nothing to show for having two potential lottery picks on their team. Not only is that bad for Rutgers basketball, it would be bad for the sport. This is the type of talent you want in the NCAA Tournament.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (11-1) (2) – The Tigers played a Top Ten non-conference schedule and romped. Their destruction of Purdue cemented their rise back to the top.
2. Tennessee (11-0) (1) – I say this often: Sometimes, a team does nothing to warrant a move down. It’s other teams that did something to warrant a move up. Will their 1/7 game against Florida be a battle of the unbeaten?
3. Florida (12-0) (3) – I won’t claim they played a strong non-conference schedule, but back-to-back wins over Virginia, Arizona State, and North Carolina aren’t so bad.
4. Iowa State (10-1) (4) – Their lone loss remains the 2-point thriller against Auburn.
5. Duke (10-2) (6) – I discussed their insane defense last week, saying their offense will improve. This week? Their offensive efficiency is up to 11th. Can anyone challenge them in the ACC?
6. Alabama (10-2) (7) – North Dakota exploited the Crimson Tide’s less-than-ideal defense. It won’t be a top-tier defense, but it needs to improve.
7. Kansas (9-2) (8) – While the Missouri and Creighton losses stand out, the Jayhawks defeated Duke, Michigan State, and North Carolina during a solid non-conference slate.
8. Oregon (11-1) (10) – While many teams had issues against the SEC, the Ducks went 2-0 against the nation’s top conference.
9. Texas A&M (10-2) (9) – Head-to-head isn’t everything (see: Duke ahead of Kansas), but I felt I needed to correct placing them ahead of Oregon last week. Their profiles don’t support it.
10. Marquette (11-2) (13) – In the top 20 in offense and defense, the Golden Eagles are currently the class of the Big East.
11. Oklahoma (12-0) (14) – Everyone knows I place value in SOS, and Oklahoma’s is not good. Their luck factor should have jumped to #1 after that win over Michigan.
12. Kentucky (10-2) (5) – Their defense is exploitable, and did Ohio State ever exploit it.
13. UConn (10-3) (12) – Speaking of exploitable defense, the Huskies are 98th in the KenPom. It explains why they are winning, but not convincingly. Still dangerous.
14. Houston (8-3) (18) – If you want my criticism, it is simple: Losing close games to good teams while destroying not-so-good teams. Further complicating my evaluation is their early-season Big 12 schedule isn’t strong.
15. San Diego State (8-2) (19) – Some metrics aren’t encouraging, but the Aztecs have played well against tough competition.
16. Gonzaga (9-3) (20) – One more game (UCLA) before they enter the part of their schedule where they can’t win the minds of fans (dominating the WCC again? Ho hum)
17. Cincinnati (10-1) (21) – Completed an Ohio sweep (Xavier, Dayton). Teams are scoring 59.5 PPG against the tough Bearcats defense.
18. Michigan State (10-2) (22) – Like many teams, the Spartans are on cruise control heading into 2025.
19. Mississippi State (11-1) (24) – The loss to Butler is weird, but it’s college basketball. I feel as if we are all underrating them.
20. UCLA (10-2) (11) – When the dust clears, North Carolina benefits more from the win than UCLA will be hurt by the loss.
21. St. John’s (10-2) (NR) – The metrics like them despite the lack of a defining win. I weigh both of those factors to place them 21st this week.
22. Michigan (9-3) (16) – The Wolverines are kicking themselves. Their three losses are by a combined five points. Trouble finishing close games, or just dumb basketball luck?
23. Illinois (8-3) (25) – Their win over Missouri (in St. Louis) was as good of a basketball game as you will find.
24. Dayton (10-3) (15) – The Flyers went 2-3 against non-conference heavyweights (North Carolina, Iowa State, UConn, Marquette, Cincinnati). The Atlantic-10 is a solid mid-major conference, and Dayton is well-positioned for an at-large come March.
25. Maryland (10-2) (NR) – I have been teasing the Terrapins for a few weeks, and it’s time to pull the trigger. Metrically, they are as good as anyone in the conference. That said, the schedule is terrible. Considering all factors, this feels appropriate.

Dropped Out:

Purdue (8-4) (17) – Unlike Maryland, Purdue has played a strong schedule. How do you balance a strong schedule vs. results? It’s always enough to fry your brain.
Memphis (9-3) (23) – I may never rank them again. No, not this year. Ever. I can’t figure them out, so why should I bother?

Just Missed:

Drake (11-0) – Three SEC schools and Drake are our final unbeaten. They survived an obstacle against Kansas State. Are they this year’s Indiana State?
Arkansas (10-2) – While Maryland and St. John’s were promoted from “Just Missed” to “In,” Arkansas continues to wait for their turn. One thing we know: The SEC will offer opportunities.
Pittsburgh (10-2) – That loss to Mississippi State resonates in my brain, but their overall profile is impressive. It’s early and things will change, but the NET has them solidly placed behind Duke as the ACC’s second-best squad.