Conference Tournament Preview: Horizon League

History: Even though they both left the league eons ago, Butler (7) and Xavier (6) are the top two in conference tournament titles. The active leaders are Milwaukee and Northern Kentucky (4). Nobody from this league has won an NCAA Tournament game since 2011, when Butler made it to the National Championship game.

Returning Champion: Northern Kentucky, as the #4 seed, knocked off Oakland (5), Youngstown State (1), and Cleveland State (3) to take the championship. As a #16 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Norse played Houston tough, losing by only 11.

Format: All 11 teams make the field, with the top five advancing automatically to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Oakland (20-11, 15-5) – One of the most balanced conferences in college basketball, the Horizon had eight teams between 15-5 and 11-9. The overall records of those teams ranged between 17-14 and 22-9.

Amongst those teams, Oakland still stands out a tad above the rest. The Grizzles played six Quadrant 1 games, defeating Xavier on the road. In other games, they hung tough with Ohio State (79-73), and Illinois (64-53). They are paced by 6’6″ forward Trey Townsend, who averages 16.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. They enter the tournament on a 7-3 run.

Contenders: Youngstown State (22-9, 14-6), Green Bay (18-13, 13-7), Wright State (18-13, 13-7), Northern Kentucky (17-14, 12-8), Milwaukee (17-14, 12-8), Cleveland State (18-13, 11-9), Purdue-Ft. Wayne (20-11, 11-9)

Live Long Shot: None

Preview:

I normally like to pare down the number of contenders, but how does one do that with these teams? The top eight teams all have legitimate title aspirations. The bottom three teams? Not so much, as they are a combined 17-76 (and Robert Morris has ten of those 17 wins). At the very bottom is Detroit Mercy, a 1-30 squad who happens to have the league’s best scorer (Jayden Stone, at 20.5 ppg).

Youngstown State can score (81.5) and rebound (40.2, 12th in the nation). Coming off the bench, 7’3″ freshman center Gabe Davis averages 2.3 blocks per game, despite only averaging 13.8 minutes. The top five scorers are all seniors, with forward D.J. Burns averaging a double-double (12.9 points/10.8 rebounds). This is a flexible, dangerous squad who lost to Dayton by eight in a road game.

Green Bay doesn’t care so much about the offense, averaging 68.5 points. The Phoenix play around the margins, with an average margin of victory of only 0.4 points. They can win for as long as Noah Reynolds (19.7 points/4.4 assists) wishes to carry them. The problem? He hasn’t played since mid-February, and the squad has been losing by large margins since.

If offense is your thing, you want to root for Wright State, the country’s fifth-best offensive team by points per game (86.1). The Raiders shoot 53.1% from the field, the top number in the nation, and 38.3% from three (11th). Their top two scorers are a pair of senior guards: Trey Calvin (19.6/4.3 assists) and Tanner Holden (16.1/6.3 rebounds).

Northern Kentucky played well down the stretch and split a pair of overtimes games with Oakland. Their quarterfinals opponent is Wright State in the 4/5 game, a team they lost to twice by a combined 13 points. They don’t have Wright State’s explosiveness, but they have an explosive player: 6’2″ senior guard Marques Warrick, who averages 19.9 points per game  Their biggest issue is that Sam Vinson has been out since December.

Milwaukee won three straight to close the season, including a 21-point walloping of Green Bay. Dominated by junior guards, the Panthers have a star in guard BJ Freeman, who averages 20.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. Those numbers lead the team. This is a high-tempo school that loves to shoot (62.9 field goal attempts), though they aren’t very good at doing so (44.1%).

Like Oakland, Cleveland State won a Quad 1 game this season, defeating Bradley on the road. They have been alternating wins and losses going back to February 1st (5-4). Senior guard Tristan Enaruna, a former Top 100 recruit for Kansas, has become a big fish in a smaller pond, averaging 20.2 points per game.

Purdue Fort Wayne has four players averaging between 13.3 and 16.2 points per game. The Mastodons piled up wins against bad competition (one of the worst schedules in the country), though they can at least claim they beat a big-conference school (3-26 DePaul). They hit 9.6 three-pointers per game, while averaging 9.5 steals. They are 4-1 in their last five games, and split their games with Oakland (their potential quarterfinal opponent). They do need to be careful, however, as they are in an 8-9 matchup with Robert Morris, who pulled off a split against the Mastodons.

Bottom Line:

Any of the top eight teams can win. Green Bay is probably towards the bottom of the eight, thanks to an injury to their best player. The league ranks 20th best (by NET) in the country, meaning that the winner should be able to avoid the First Four at the very least.

Winner: I am going with the highest-octane offense. Wright State.