History:
The West Coast Conference is all about Gonzaga and (to a lesser extent) St. Mary’s. They have won every title since 2009, with Gonzaga winning 12 and St. Mary’s winning four. Additionally, the only other school to participate in the finals during this timeframe is BYU, which made it there four times.
Returning Champion:
St. Mary’s stopped Gonzaga’s latest run at four. They defeated the Bulldogs, 69-60, in the championship game. As a #5 seed, the Gaels were upset by #12 seed Grand Canyon. As a #5 seed, Gonzaga made it to the Sweet 16, where they lost to Purdue.
Format:
Every team (11) makes the field. This tournament is played stepladder-style, with the #1 and #2 seeds automatically placed in the semi-finals. Newcomers Oregon State and Washington State add some intrigue to the proceedings.
Contenders:
St. Mary’s (27-4, 14-1) and Gonzaga (23-8, 14-4) are in their familiar “favorite” positions. Both teams are guaranteed spots in the NCAA Tournament. St. Mary’s swept Gonzaga and is on a 7-game winning streak. Their (extremely) slow, defensive style makes them a matchup nightmare for teams who haven’t faced them. They aren’t a very good shooting team, but they make up for that with volume and strong offensive rebounding. Imagine having to play defense for 27 seconds, only for this squad to miss a shot and grab the offensive rebound. That is how they wear you down.
The computers love Gonzaga, but this was not a typical season. The Bulldogs are only 3-6 in Quadrant 1 and their four conference losses are their most since the 1997-1998 season (crazy). That was the last time they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament, though they have no such fears this year. Unlike St. Mary’s, they like to push the tempo and have one of the nation’s best offenses (87.6 PPG). All 14 conference wins are by double digits, so don’t underestimate their power.
Can anyone else contend? San Francisco was on the bubble for a while (I don’t see it now). They are 23-8 and are the only team to defeat St. Mary’s in conference play. As a #3 seed, however, they wouldn’t get another shot at the Gaels unless they make the title game. Santa Clara (20-11, 12-6) has a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, including a road conquest of Gonzaga. They challenged themselves in the non-conference and had decent wins (McNeese on the road and TCU/Bradley on a neutral court).
Sleeper:
There isn’t one in this league. Oregon State is too good to be a “sleeper” (they are in the NET Top 100) and Washington State hasn’t played well recently (though they won two in a row to end the campaign).
Loyola Marymount could make a run to the quarterfinals, where they would play San Francisco, a squad they recently lost to by six. Additionally, they ended their season with a 3-point loss to St. Mary’s.
How it should play out:
It would be shocking if Gonzaga – St. Mary’s isn’t our championship game (again). Gonzaga has lost some focus at times and St. Mary’s style could lead to a shocking 52-51 loss. However, neither outcome seems likely.
Winner:
Can St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga three times? Yes. But I think Gonzaga takes the championship.