Conference Tournament Preview: America East Conference

History: Vermont has ten conference tournament wins, all since 2003. They have won two in a row and three of the last four.

That said, the biggest story out of this conference happened in 2018 when UMBC took down the tournament as a #2 seed and went on to defeat Virginia in the first-ever 16-over-1. Despite their conference success and close calls in the NCAA Tournament, Vermont hasn’t won a main bracket game since 2005, when they defeated Syracuse in a 13-vs-4 matchup.

Returning Champion: Vermont. As a #15 seed, they lost to Marquette in the first round, 78-61. They weren’t even challenged in the conference tournament, winning three games by a combined 62 points.

Format:  Eight of the nine teams make the field (NJIT didn’t make it). After the first round, the tournament is reseeded for the semi-finals. Games are played on home courts.

Favorite:  Vermont (25-6, 15-1)

The sky is blue and Vermont is the overwhelming favorite to win the America East Tournament. They enter the tournament on a 7-game winning streak (believe it or not, their only conference loss was to the team that didn’t qualify – NJIT.)  Their best non-conference win was a home conquest of Yale, while they lost to Bradley by nine on the road. As is the case with all John Becker teams, the Catamounts like to control the pace and play defense. In his 13 years at the helm, Vermont has failed to win 20 games only once – and that was during a 15-game schedule in 2021.

Contenders: UMass Lowell (20-9, 11-5), Bryant (19-12, 11-5)

Live Long Shot:  Maine (15-16, 7-9)

Preview:

The America East is as straightforward as it gets. If you can’t win on the road, you are going to go home (unless you are the #1 seed). It’s a tough tournament to win, which is why I think there are so few contenders. Essentially, I choose teams on the opposite side of the bracket from Vermont.

UMass Lowell made it to the championship last year. In Quadrant 2 games this year, they earned a 3-point win over Georgia Tech while they lost to Arizona State by two. While the River Hawks haven’t been able to defeat Vermont, their style is different. They play at a high tempo and average 80.3 points. Five different players average between 10.2 and 14.8 points. They score inside the arc, as they only attempt 17.6 three-pointers per contest (329th) and use their defensive rebounding to spark their transition game.

Bryant can also put points on the board. Former Top 30 recruit Earl Timberlake transferred here and averages 14.6 points and 9.0 rebounds. Sherif Gross-Bullock is a fifth-year senior who averages 18.1 points. The Bulldogs own an impressive Quad 1 win over Florida Atlantic (road). They have one NCAA Tournament appearance (16 seed in 2022, when they were a member of the Northeast Conference).

Maine? Their season is nothing short of miraculous. The Black Bears are coming out of a year’s long hibernation under Chris Markwood, who has secured 28 wins in the last two years. That might not sound like much but remember that they won 28 games combined from the 2017-2018 season through the 2021-2022 season. This is the first year they have averaged more points scored than they have allowed since the 2011-2012 campaign. Maine owns a Quad 1 win (road against South Florida) They rely heavily on a slower tempo and strong defense. Even if they don’t win a game (they face Bryant in the first round), their ascension is a remarkable story.

Bottom Line:

UMBC proved years ago that Vermont can be defeated on their home court during the conference tournament. That said, Vermont hasn’t lost a home conference game since March 6, 2021when Hartford pulled off an upset in the semifinals.

Winner: Vermont isn’t a monster, but they are the overwhelmingly best team in this conference for several years running. I can’t pick against them. Vermont.