History:
The storied Sun Belt had at-large credentials in the past but hasn’t sent multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament since 2013. The conference has many transformations over the years and six current squads have won the tournament.
Last season, James Madison became the first squad since Little Rock in 2016 to win an NCAA Tournament game.
Returning Champion:
James Madison was special last season, compiling a 32-4 record and being ranked in the AP poll eight times. Interestingly, despite their big year, the Dukes were the #2 seed in the conference tournament behind Appalachian State, a squad that handed them two of their four losses. In the NCAA Tournament, they upset Wisconsin in a 12-vs-5 upset before losing to Duke.
Format:
All 14 squads make this unique “step ladder” tournament, where the top two seeds automatically advance to the semi-finals. That is important this season, as I will outline below.
Contenders:
Wow. Four teams went 13-5 while a fifth (Marshall) went 12-6. Various tiebreakers were needed to create the bracket, with South Alabama and James Madison earning the coveted #1 and #2 seeds. The tiebreaker losers (Troy and Arkansas State) will automatically advance to the quarterfinals.
Arkansas State is in the NET Top 100. The Red Wolves own a massive win at Memphis and played Alabama within nine on the road. Additionally, they defeated Mid-American champion Akron and AAC 3rd place squad UAB. They are a slow-tempo squad with a solid team defense.
Despite those credentials, they are the #4 seed, as they went 1-4 against South Alabama/James Madison/Troy.
Like Arkansas State, South Alabama plays a slow style (352nd in tempo!) and strong defense (99th). They allow only 64.3 points per game.
James Madison isn’t the same team this year. They couldn’t win a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game (0-4) and their lone matchup against South Alabama was a disaster (77-49 loss). However, we must respect them as they only need two wins to cut down the nets.
Fitting the theme, Troy is also slow-paced and defensive. They held Houston to 62 points (but scored only 42) and Arkansas to 65 (only scored 49). They went 5-1 in February, including an impressive win at Arkansas State.
Sleeper:
Texas State plays a different style, averaging 76.7 points. Late in the season, they played three overtime games against South Alabama (split) and James Madison (win).
How it should play out:
This is a fun tournament with the format I prefer. Allowing your best teams to go straight to the semifinals won’t tire them out heading into a potential NCAA Tournament game, and it rewards great regular-season play.
Arkansas State stands out, though it isn’t a slam dunk. If there aren’t any upsets, they will play Marshall in a tough quarterfinal matchup. Marshall won their only meeting this season.
Winner:
This is a bunched-up league that could avoid a dreaded #16 seed. Picking a name out of a hat, I will take Troy. James Madison isn’t a scary #2 seed, and they are on Troy’s side of the bracket.