History:
The days of Murray State (18 titles) battling it out with Belmont (3) are long gone. The only current squad with more than two championships is Morehead State, a 6-time winner with an NCAA Tournament upset over Louisville in 2011.
While this conference has produced plenty of good teams, this year’s edition doesn’t have a dominant team that would avoid a #16 seed.
Returning Champion:
Morehead State, as a #3 seed in a bunched-up conference, won their second title in three years. As a 14-seed, they played fairly well in a 85-69 loss to Illinois.
Format:
Eight of the 11 teams make the field. Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Southern Indiana missed the cut. This is a stepladder tournament, where the #1 and #2 seeds automatically advance to the semi-finals.
Two teams haven’t completed their probationary period and are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. One is Southern Indiana (missed the field). The other is Lindenwood, who will enter the tournament as the #6 seed.
Contenders:
The top two seeds have a huge advantage in this format, so Southeast Missouri State (20-11, 15-5) and SIU Edwardsville (20-11, 13-7) are heavy favorites. Southeast Missouri State was on a 10-game winning streak before losing their season finale to one of the worst teams in Division 1 (Eastern Illinois). Edwardsville, which has never made the NCAA Tournament field, has risen slowly since it transitioned from Division II. This is their first 20+ win season, and they lost 21 games in 2021-2022.
Southeast Missouri State is a defensive squad that prevents 3-pointers (28.5%; 6th in the nation). Edwardsville also leans defense, though they have a premiere scorer (Ray’Sean Taylor averages 19.2 PPG, best in the conference). Defensively, they are good at defending 2-point shots (44.9%; 8th in the nation).
It’s hard to find another contender, though Tennessee State took Colorado State to overtime in the non-conference (Quadrant 1). However, they were swept by Edwardsville (their potential semi-final opponent).
Sleeper:
Nothing indicates Morehead State can win this title, but they have won two of the last three and should be taken seriously.
How it should play out:
I would be surprised if it isn’t a #1 vs. #2 game for the title. While the NET hates the conference and paints a picture of parity, Southeast Missouri State and Edwardsville stand out. Little Rock (18-13, 12-8) and Tennessee State (16-15, 12-8; 7-3 in their last ten) can be disruptive.
Winner:
Why not give SIU-Edwardsville their first taste of the NCAA Tournament?