History: The conference that gave us the Belmont – Murray State rivalry for years (Murray State won this tournament 18 times before moving to the Missouri Valley) looks different nowadays. 11 teams compete in the conference, with Morehead State’s the current leader with five titles. Murray State won an NCAA Tournament game out of this conference in 2022, defeating San Francisco in the first round before losing to upstart St. Peter‘s in the Round of 32. Going back further, Morehead State defeated Louisville in a 13-vs-4 upset in 2011.
Returning Champion: Southeast Missouri State, as the #5 seed, knocked off #2 seed Tennessee Tech in overtime to take last year’s title. They lost to Texas A&M – Corpus Christi in the First Four.
Format: Eight of the 11 schools made the tournament (Tennessee Tech, Southeast Missouri State, and Lindenwood didn’t qualify). The tournament plays a stepladder format, where the top two schools go straight to the semifinals. In the first round, the #5 seed takes on the #8 seed while the #6 seed takes on the #7 seed.
Favorite: Little Rock (20-11, 14-4) – Three teams finished the season 14-4, while another finished 13-5. Given the stepladder format, it makes sense to list the #1 or #2 seed as the favorite. Little Rock wins the spot for me, as they closed the season with nine straight wins and 12 wins in their last 13 games.
Little Rock’s three top scorers are seniors, with Khalen Robinson‘s 15.8 leading the squad. Robinson was a Top 100 recruit for Arkansas back in 2020. He didn’t get much playing time for the Razorbacks or Texas A&M, so he transferred to Little Rock this year.
Contenders: UT-Martin (21-10, 14-4), Morehead State (23-8, 14-4), Western Illinois (20-11, 13-5)
Live Long Shot: Eastern Illinois (14-17, 8-10)
Preview:
The Ohio Valley is a top-heavy conference this season, with three teams tying for the regular-season title. None of the teams pulled off a Quad 1 win.
By the way, #8 seed Southern Indiana (8-23, 5-13) is in its transition period (year 2) and is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.
UT-Martin has never made it to the NCAA Tournament. The Skyhawks have won seven straight games, including a win over Morehead State. This is an offensive-minded squad that finished 24th in the country with 81.6 points. Furthermore, the Skyhawks averaged the most defensive rebounds in the country (31.1/game). They need good defensive rebounding because the overall team defense is not solid. Two standout guards lead the charge, with Jordan Spears averaging an impressive 21.2 points per game, while 6’7″ Jacob Crews averages 19.3 points and 8.2 rebounds.
Morehead State went through a lull recently when they lost three straight games. The Eagles followed that up by winning their final three games. They played a tough non-conference schedule that included blowout losses to Alabama and Purdue. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but Riley Minix was still able to average 20.5 points.
Western Illinois doesn’t score much, but they do keep opponents off of the scoreboard. The Leathernecks hold opponents to 40.4% shooting and only 29.6% from three-point territory. Against Division I opponents, they topped 80 points only twice. They are one of the best stories in the conference, as they have never made it to the NCAA Tournament and are rarely a top-tier team. Last season’s 16-14 mark was the first time they were over .500 since the 2012-2013 season.
Bottom Line:
I don’t think Western Illinois has the horses to pull off the tournament win, but that would be impressive. I am going with another first-time NCAA Tournament team.
Winner: UT-Martin