Tag: March Madness

Conference Tournament Preview: CAA

History:

The CAA has changed through the years and last won an NCAA Tournament game 13 years ago (VCU).

William & Mary has never received a bid to the NCAA Tournament. They are one of three “original” Division I schools with that distinction (Army, the Citadel). Elon has also never made it to the Big Dance.

Returning Champion:

Charleston has won two in a row. Last year’s squad needed overtime to defeat Stony Brook. In the NCAA Tournament, they went toe-to-toe with super-paced Alabama, losing by a reasonable 109-96 score. In 2023, they lost to San Diego State (who made a run to the title game) by six.

Format:

The CAA has 14 squads, and it invites all of them. The top four squads get byes to the quarterfinals, while seeds 5-10 get byes to the second round.

Contenders:

Towson (21-10, 16-2) is cruising into this tournament, winning 15 of their last 16 games.  The Tigers play a low-tempo game, averaging only 69.5 PPG (they allow 65.9, 33rd in the nation). A team that plays within margins this small is ripe for an upset, but they keep winning.

UNC Wilmington (24-7, 14-4) is the league’s highest-scoring team (79.9 PPG) and ranks 79th in efficiency. The Seahawks feature a balanced attack. Only one player has started every game (Donovan Newby) and 11 players average 10+ minutes. When you average nearly 80 points per game and nobody scores 15, that is balance.

The CAA plays its share of Quadrant 1 games, but only one team has a win. That team is Charleston. It isn’t the most impressive Quad 1 win (St. Joseph’s), but it qualifies. 6’10” senior forward Ante Brzovic averages 18.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 2.9 APG.

Sleeper:

Hampton (16-15, 8-10) didn’t have a good season but their ending is intriguing. Down the stretch, they defeated UNC Wilmington and lost on the road to Drexel by one and Towson by three. As the #10 seed, they must defeat Northeastern to get another shot at Wilmington. They split with Northeastern during the season.

How it should play out:

14 teams. Many of them bunched together. While Monmouth went 12-19, the Hawks are 10-8 in league play. The top seed plays a lot of close games. The only two teams that would shock me if they win this tournament are Stony Brook and North Carolina A&T.

Winner:

I could toss a 14-sided coin and be nearly as accurate as a more data-driven approach. I didn’t feature them, but can this be the year for William & Mary? They are a fun squad that tosses up a bunch of three-point shots (29.9, 8th in the nation).

William & Mary makes their first NCAA Tournament.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: WCC

History:

The West Coast Conference is all about Gonzaga and (to a lesser extent) St. Mary’s. They have won every title since 2009, with Gonzaga winning 12 and St. Mary’s winning four. Additionally, the only other school to participate in the finals during this timeframe is BYU, which made it there four times.

Returning Champion:

St. Mary’s stopped Gonzaga’s latest run at four. They defeated the Bulldogs, 69-60, in the championship game. As a #5 seed, the Gaels were upset by #12 seed Grand Canyon. As a #5 seed, Gonzaga made it to the Sweet 16, where they lost to Purdue. 

Format:

Every team (11) makes the field. This tournament is played stepladder-style, with the #1 and #2 seeds automatically placed in the semi-finals.  Newcomers Oregon State and Washington State add some intrigue to the proceedings.

Contenders:

St. Mary’s (27-4, 14-1) and Gonzaga (23-8, 14-4) are in their familiar “favorite” positions. Both teams are guaranteed spots in the NCAA Tournament. St. Mary’s swept Gonzaga and is on a 7-game winning streak. Their (extremely) slow, defensive style makes them a matchup nightmare for teams who haven’t faced them. They aren’t a very good shooting team, but they make up for that with volume and strong offensive rebounding. Imagine having to play defense for 27 seconds, only for this squad to miss a shot and grab the offensive rebound. That is how they wear you down.

The computers love Gonzaga, but this was not a typical season. The Bulldogs are only 3-6 in Quadrant 1 and their four conference losses are their most since the 1997-1998 season (crazy). That was the last time they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament, though they have no such fears this year. Unlike St. Mary’s, they like to push the tempo and have one of the nation’s best offenses (87.6 PPG). All 14 conference wins are by double digits, so don’t underestimate their power.

Can anyone else contend? San Francisco was on the bubble for a while (I don’t see it now). They are 23-8 and are the only team to defeat St. Mary’s in conference play. As a #3 seed, however, they wouldn’t get another shot at the Gaels unless they make the title game. Santa Clara (20-11, 12-6) has a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, including a road conquest of Gonzaga. They challenged themselves in the non-conference and had decent wins (McNeese on the road and TCU/Bradley on a neutral court).

Sleeper:

There isn’t one in this league. Oregon State is too good to be a “sleeper” (they are in the NET Top 100) and Washington State hasn’t played well recently (though they won two in a row to end the campaign).

Loyola Marymount could make a run to the quarterfinals, where they would play San Francisco, a squad they recently lost to by six. Additionally, they ended their season with a 3-point loss to St. Mary’s.

How it should play out:

It would be shocking if Gonzaga – St. Mary’s isn’t our championship game (again). Gonzaga has lost some focus at times and St. Mary’s style could lead to a shocking 52-51 loss. However, neither outcome seems likely.

Winner:

Can St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga three times?  Yes. But I think Gonzaga takes the championship.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Missouri Valley

History:

Once a multi-bid league, the Missouri Valley has become a 1-bid conference in recent years. In 2024, an argument was made for Indiana State to earn an at-large, but they were amongst the first four teams excluded. The last time they received an at-large bid was Drake in 2021.

Drake has won back-to-back championships and has made the finals four straight years.

Former member Loyola Chicago is the last team to win an NCAA Tournament game (Sweet 16 in 2021). Their run to the Final Four in 2018 is forever legendary.

Returning Champion:

Drake squeaked past Indiana State by four in the championship. The Bulldogs played in a 7-vs-10 game, which they lost to Washington State by five.

Format:

Every team (12) makes the field, with the top four seeds earning byes to the second round.

Contenders:

Drake (27-3, 17-3) was supposed to have a down year this year, given a new coach and the transfer of most of their roster. Star player Tucker DeVries took his talents to West Virginia. Ranked 60th in the NET, the Bulldogs won the Charleston Classic, defeating Vanderbilt in the title game. Unfortunately, that was their only Quad 1 game (their road conquest of Kansas State is Quad 2) and they own three Quad 3 losses, which hampers their shot at an at-large bid. One fun feature of this squad is they are last in the country in adjusted tempo, which can throw impatient opponents off their game. They are 61st in defensive efficiency and allow a paltry 59.2 PPG (3rd in the nation).

Bradley (24-7, 15-5) shouldn’t be taken lightly. The Braves own a Quad 1 win (Drake on the road) and knocked out San Francisco in a home Quad 2 game. Like Drake, Bradley doesn’t like to play fast, though they average a decent 78.2 PPG. Their 41% success rate from 3-point range leads the nation, making them dangerous to everyone in their path.

The third team in the NET Top 100 is Northern Iowa (20-11, 14-6). Decent offensively and defensively, the Panthers try to beat you with their frontcourt, where 6’6″ forward Tytan Anderson (15.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and 6’10” center Jacob Hutson (11.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG) reside.

Belmont goes against the grain of the top three, as they play an uptempo style that has allowed them to score 80.4 PPG. The Bruins love to heave 3-point attempts (27.7 per game) and are successful in converting them (9th best rate in the nation). Their uptempo style leaves them vulnerable on defense. When they faced Drake this season, the Bulldogs forced their style on Belmont, winning 65-46.

Sleeper:

Illinois – Chicago (17-13, 10-10) in dangerous as a #6 seed. The Flames won four Quadrant 2 games (Bradley, Drake, Yale, Illinois State) and played Northwestern within nine in a Quad 1 contest.

How it should play out:

The Missouri Valley Tournament is an anticipated event every year. Nicknamed “Arch Madness,” bracket mavens across the country await their NCAA Tournament pairing. This year, Drake and Bradley look good for a championship run, though Belmont’s different style could cause problems.

Winner:

Drake wins their third straight conference title.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Summit League

History:

South Dakota State (7), North Dakota State (4), and Oral Roberts (2) are the only winners of this tournament from 2012 – 2024.

Oral Roberts was the talk of the town in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The Golden Eagles, as a #15 seed, knocked off Ohio State and Florida on their way to the Sweet 16. In the Sweet 16, they lost to Arkansas by two, missing a 3-pointer at the buzzer. In 2014, in a 12-vs-5 matchup, North Dakota State defeated Oklahoma in overtime.

In other words, while winning in the NCAA Tournament is uncommon, don’t underestimate the team that emerges.

Returning Champion:

South Dakota State defeated upstart Denver (7 seed) to win another title. They lost to Iowa State in a 15-vs-2 matchup.

Format:

All nine squads make the field, with #8 playing #9 in the first round. Saint Thomas, one of the league’s top squads, is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament as their transition from Division III continues.

Contenders:

Omaha (19-12, 13-3) will attempt to add some uniqueness to the wall of champions. However, despite being the top seed, they are only the fourth-best team according to the NET. They trail Saint Thomas (22-9, 12-4), South Dakota State (20-11, 11-5), and North Dakota State (21-10, 10-6).  The team “in the middle” is South Dakota (18-13, 9-7).

North Dakota State is strong offensively, ranking 52nd in efficiency (KenPom). They average 81 points per game and feature two top scorers (Jackson Moni (20.6 PPG) and Jacari White (17.1)). The Bison shoot a lot of 3-pointers (30.1) and hit on an impressive 39.6% (4th in the nation).

Omaha is a vulnerable #1 seed. They don’t have a top attribute, though they can hit 3-pointers (36.7%). This squad of juniors and seniors is looking for its first NCAA Tournament bid. Before this season, they hadn’t won more than half of their conference games since 2012-2013.

For St. Thomas to win, their offense has to be shooting on all cylinders. Ranked 64th in efficiency and 14th in PPG, the Tommies can light it up from 3-point range (a trend in this league) and shoot 49.4% overall (7th in the nation). Defensively? The less said about that, the better.

South Dakota State defeated McNeese in a battle of top mid-major schools earlier this season. Additionally, they lost to Boise State by one in a Quad 1 contest. The league’s most dominant squad over the last several years isn’t quite up to previous standards, but they are dangerous.

Like Omaha, South Dakota has yet to make the NCAA Tournament. The Coyotes play one of the fastest tempos in the country (3rd), scoring a crazy 85.5 PPG. Despite their pace, they aren’t efficient and rely on volume to score. Defensively, they allow 83.2 PPG. In other words, expect a track meet when they are on the other side of the court.

Sleeper:

North Dakota (11-20, 5-11) is the best I can come up with. The Summit League is a league of haves and have-nots. The top five teams won 18 – 22 games, while the bottom four squads lost 19 – 22.

How it should play out:

If you like scoring, this is your league. Three teams average 80+ points per game (a 4th averages 79.9). Only Kansas City (67.5) gives up less than 70 PPG. If a top team gets to the NCAA Tournament, they should earn a seed that gives them an outside shot at a win.

St. Thomas winning this tournament would be a feat, though if that happens, the loser would go to the NCAA Tournament.

Winner:

St. Thomas. I think they are the best team, though it should be a fun ride.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Northeast Conference

History:

The Northeast Conference and #16 seeds go hand-in-hand. That isn’t always bad, as Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history when they knocked off #1 Purdue in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. My favorite fun fact from that season is that FDU didn’t even win the conference tournament. That honor went to Merrimack, who was ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

In 2010, Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime in a 15-vs-2 matchup. The Colonials have the most league titles (9) but are no longer members.

Returning Champion:

Wagner pulled off the upset as a #6 seed, knocking off the #3, #2, and #1 seeds to take it home. They defeated Howard in a battle of #16 seeds but couldn’t replicate what FDU pulled off. They lost to North Carolina, 90-62.

Format:

Eight of the nine league members make the field. Mercyhurst (9-7) is ineligible for the conference tournament as they transition from Division II. However, Le Moyne (9-22, 4-12) and Stonehill (15-16, 7-9) are eligible despite not being eligible for the NCAA Tournament. The reason? The NEC has a new rule where you must be in your third year of transitioning to make the field. Le Moyne and Stonehill were “grandfathered” in under the old rules.

Teams are re-seeded after the first round.

Contenders:

Central Connecticut dominated regular-season play, going 14-2. In the non-conference, they pulled off a Quad 2 win over Saint Joseph’s and lost to Providence by four. Providence isn’t great, but a NEC team getting that close to a Big East squad is noteworthy. The Blue Devils are a Top 100 defense in the NET and enter this tournament on a 12-game winning streak, the top current streak in the nation. Additionally, they are the only squad in the conference with a winning record against Division I opponents (Long Island is 16-15, but two of those wins are outside Division I).

Speaking of Long Island, they enter the tournament on a 6-game winning streak  Like Central Connecticut, they play decent defense. However, their offense is one of the worst in the country. The Sharks are one of the two teams that beat Central Connecticut in conference play (Wagner was the other).

Sleeper:

Can Wagner rise from the #6 seed to win the tournament again? In the NEC, anything can (and does) happen. I don’t see lightning striking again, but the win over Central Connecticut should give them confidence.

How it should play out:

Let’s be realistic: Only one team is in the NET 200 (Central Connecticut is 157th). Only one other team is in the NET 300 (Long Island is 276th). Everyone else is battling it out with the worst teams in the country. It’s hard to see any team avoiding a #16 seed, but maybe Central Connecticut can avoid a “First Four” contest.

Winner:

Central Connecticut deserves it.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Ohio Valley

History:

The days of Murray State (18 titles) battling it out with Belmont (3) are long gone. The only current squad with more than two championships is Morehead State, a 6-time winner with an NCAA Tournament upset over Louisville in 2011.

While this conference has produced plenty of good teams, this year’s edition doesn’t have a dominant team that would avoid a #16 seed.

Returning Champion:

Morehead State, as a #3 seed in a bunched-up conference, won their second title in three years. As a 14-seed, they played fairly well in a 85-69 loss to Illinois.

Format:

Eight of the 11 teams make the field. Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Southern Indiana missed the cut. This is a stepladder tournament, where the #1 and #2 seeds automatically advance to the semi-finals.

Two teams haven’t completed their probationary period and are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. One is Southern Indiana (missed the field). The other is Lindenwood, who will enter the tournament as the #6 seed.

Contenders:

The top two seeds have a huge advantage in this format, so Southeast Missouri State (20-11, 15-5) and SIU Edwardsville (20-11, 13-7) are heavy favorites. Southeast Missouri State was on a 10-game winning streak before losing their season finale to one of the worst teams in Division 1 (Eastern Illinois). Edwardsville, which has never made the NCAA Tournament field, has risen slowly since it transitioned from Division II.  This is their first 20+ win season, and they lost 21 games in 2021-2022.

Southeast Missouri State is a defensive squad that prevents 3-pointers (28.5%; 6th in the nation). Edwardsville also leans defense, though they have a premiere scorer (Ray’Sean Taylor averages 19.2 PPG, best in the conference).  Defensively, they are good at defending 2-point shots (44.9%; 8th in the nation).

It’s hard to find another contender, though Tennessee State took Colorado State to overtime in the non-conference (Quadrant 1). However, they were swept by Edwardsville (their potential semi-final opponent).

Sleeper:

Nothing indicates Morehead State can win this title, but they have won two of the last three and should be taken seriously.

How it should play out:

I would be surprised if it isn’t a #1 vs. #2 game for the title. While the NET hates the conference and paints a picture of parity, Southeast Missouri State and Edwardsville stand out. Little Rock (18-13, 12-8) and Tennessee State (16-15, 12-8; 7-3 in their last ten) can be disruptive.

Winner:

Why not give SIU-Edwardsville their first taste of the NCAA Tournament?

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Big South

History:

Winthrop has won 33% of the Big South’s conference championships (13 of 39). The Eagles are also the last team to win an NCAA Tournament game (2007, when they defeated Notre Dame in an 11-vs-6 game). Traditionally, this isn’t a conference you look to for an NCAA Tournament upset, though their 2025 NET conference ranking (18th) isn’t so bad.

Returning Champion:

Longwood won its second title in three years. Despite finishing 6-10 in conference play, the #5 seed knocked off top-seeded High Point in the semi-finals before destroying #2 seed UNC-Asheville in the championship.

Format:

All nine teams make the field. The first round is an 8-vs-9 game. After that, the tournament plays out normally.

Contenders:

One team can avoid a bad NCAA Tournament seed, and that squad is High Point. Ranked in the Top 100 in the NET, the Panthers have won 11 straight. Furthermore, while they didn’t play a Quad 1 game, they own a decent Quad 2 victory over North Texas. They went 2-0 against the AAC, also knocking off UAB. It is an offense you don’t want to mess with, as they are ranked 26th in offensive efficiency and 20th in PPG (82.4). If they have a lead late, they are amongst the best free-throw shooting squads (76.7%). The issue? Their defense. While it doesn’t look so bad on the surface (68.8 PPG), the KenPom ranks them 225th.

One of the teams High Point lost to in conference play is UNC-Asheville, who will enter this tournament as the #2 seed. Like High Point, the Bulldogs like to score (82.5 PPG) with bad defense. Not to be outdone, Winthrop is one of the nation’s highest-scoring squads (85.0). Their top four scorers are seniors, and they ended the season with a 103-90 triumph over UNC-Asheville.

Sleeper:

Presbyterian enters the tournament on a three-game winning streak, including road wins over Radford (19-12, 9-7) and UNC-Asheville.

How it should play out:

High Point entered the 2024 tournament as the favorite and lost. They have yet to make it to the NCAA Tournament. While it shouldn’t be a cakewalk (it never is), their team is far better than the rest of the league.

Winner:

Expect High Point to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance, where they will likely receive a “chance to win” seed.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Sun Belt

History:

The storied Sun Belt had at-large credentials in the past but hasn’t sent multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament since 2013. The conference has many transformations over the years and six current squads have won the tournament.

Last season, James Madison became the first squad since Little Rock in 2016 to win an NCAA Tournament game.

Returning Champion:

James Madison was special last season, compiling a 32-4 record and being ranked in the AP poll eight times. Interestingly, despite their big year, the Dukes were the #2 seed in the conference tournament behind Appalachian State, a squad that handed them two of their four losses. In the NCAA Tournament, they upset Wisconsin in a 12-vs-5 upset before losing to Duke. 

Format:

All 14 squads make this unique “step ladder” tournament, where the top two seeds automatically advance to the semi-finals. That is important this season, as I will outline below.

Contenders:

Wow. Four teams went 13-5 while a fifth (Marshall) went 12-6. Various tiebreakers were needed to create the bracket, with South Alabama and James Madison earning the coveted #1 and #2 seeds. The tiebreaker losers (Troy and Arkansas State) will automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Arkansas State is in the NET Top 100. The Red Wolves own a massive win at Memphis and played Alabama within nine on the road. Additionally, they defeated Mid-American champion Akron and AAC 3rd place squad UAB. They are a slow-tempo squad with a solid team defense.

Despite those credentials, they are the #4 seed, as they went 1-4 against South Alabama/James Madison/Troy.

Like Arkansas State, South Alabama plays a slow style (352nd in tempo!) and strong defense (99th). They allow only 64.3 points per game.

James Madison isn’t the same team this year. They couldn’t win a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game (0-4) and their lone matchup against South Alabama was a disaster (77-49 loss). However, we must respect them as they only need two wins to cut down the nets.

Fitting the theme, Troy is also slow-paced and defensive. They held Houston to 62 points (but scored only 42) and Arkansas to 65 (only scored 49). They went 5-1 in February, including an impressive win at Arkansas State.

Sleeper:

Texas State plays a different style, averaging 76.7 points. Late in the season, they played three overtime games against South Alabama (split) and James Madison (win).

How it should play out:

This is a fun tournament with the format I prefer. Allowing your best teams to go straight to the semifinals won’t tire them out heading into a potential NCAA Tournament game, and it rewards great regular-season play.

Arkansas State stands out, though it isn’t a slam dunk. If there aren’t any upsets, they will play Marshall in a tough quarterfinal matchup. Marshall won their only meeting this season.

Winner:

This is a bunched-up league that could avoid a dreaded #16 seed. Picking a name out of a hat, I will take Troy. James Madison isn’t a scary #2 seed, and they are on Troy’s side of the bracket.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Patriot League

History:

Colgate has romped through this conference, winning the last four titles by 66 points. Additionally, the Raiders have reached the title game for seven straight seasons. Unfortunately, their conference dominance hasn’t resulted in an NCAA Tournament win. The last Patriot League team to win a main bracket game was Lehigh in 2012, where they knocked off Duke in a 15-vs-2 contest.

Army and Loyola Maryland have never won the conference tournament. While Loyola has reached the NCAA Tournament twice (while playing for a different league), Army has zero NCAA Tournament appearances.

Returning Champion:

Colgate reached the NCAA Tournament as a #15 seed, succumbing to Baylor by 25.

Format:

All ten squads make the field, with the top six squads receiving a first-round bye.

Contenders:

Bucknell and American compiled the best seasons, with Bucknell making a late surge (6 straight wins) to take the #1 seed. Four teams (Boston University, Army, Colgate, Navy) went 10-8 in conference play, giving this tournament the most wide-open look in many years.

The widest average margin of victory is 1.0 (Bucknell) while the widest average margin of defeat is 2.3 (Holy Cross).

Sleeper:

Navy defeated American on the road late in the season, perhaps boosting their confidence heading into the conference tournament.

How it should play out:

The Patriot League was one of the easiest leagues to handicap in recent seasons, but that isn’t the case in 2025. Would it shock me if Colgate continued dominating, despite a down season? Nope. Matt Langel has coached them to four straight conference championships and it is hard to ignore that pedigree.

However, I won’t go in that direction. Army is the sentimental favorite, but they fell apart late.

Winner:

This one is tough. I will pick Navy, as they boast the league’s best scorer (Austin Benigni) and rebounder (Aidan Kehoe). 

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Horizon

History:

The Horizon League has a rich NCAA Tournament history, highlighted by Butler’s back-to-back appearances in the title game in 2010 and 2011. The 2011 squad was the last team to win an NCAA Tournament game until 2024, when Oakland pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the NCAA Tournament, defeating Kentucky by four in a 13-vs-4 game. They followed that up by taking the eventual Final Four squad of North Carolina State to overtime in the second round.

Returning Champion:

As I just mentioned, Oakland won the tournament as the #1 seed, avoiding a 1-vs-7 upset against Cleveland State by three.

Format:

All 11 teams make it, with seeds 1-5 receiving first-round byes. One unique feature is that the Horizon reseeds after every round. For example, for as long as Robert Morris is in the tournament, they will play the lowest remaining seed.

Contenders:

Robert Morris is the top seed after a 23-8 (15-5) regular season. According to the NET, the best squad is #3 seed Milwaukee (21-10, 14-6). Milwaukee owns a non-conference Quadrant 2 win over Akron. Also at the top are Cleveland State (20-11, 14-6) and Youngstown State (19-12, 13-7) to go along with high-scoring Purdue Fort Wayne (19-12, 12-8). It should come as no surprise that this is a wide-open conference.

The Horizon is the 19th-ranked conference and should be able to avoid a #16 seed unless there is a major upset winner.

Sleeper:

Oakland (14-17) challenged themselves in the non-conference, playing five Quadrant 1 games. In the Diamond Head Classic, they defeated Loyola-Chicago before losing to Oregon State in overtime in the title game. The Golden Grizzles swept Milwaukee but were swept by Robert Morris in close contests.

How it should play out:

Firstly, I won’t completely ignore the 4-27 campaign for broadcaster-turned-head coach Doug Gottlieb at Green Bay. The Phoenix aren’t traditional powers (they have 20+ losses in three of their last four campaigns), but they were coming off an 18-14 season.

I like Purdue Fort Wayne, though to pick them means I am confident they can beat Youngstown State on the road in the quarterfinals (the quarterfinals are played at campus sites). Hence, I have to scratch them.

I like Milwaukee’s path the best, but this is a crapshoot.

Winner:

Milwaukee.