Tag: Lipscomb

Conference Tournament Preview: ASUN

History:

Most of the dominant schools are no longer members of this conference. 5-time tournament winner Belmont is now in the Missouri Valley, while Liberty (who won three straight titles between 2019 and 2021) is now in Conference USA.

The Atlantic Sun is not to be taken lightly in the NCAA Tournament. In 2023, Kennesaw State played Xavier within five in a 14-vs-3 matchup, while Liberty pulled off a 12-vs-5 upset in 2019. No team is more famous than the 2013 Florida Gulf Coast squad. The Eagles won a pair of games in the NCAA Tournament, becoming the first #15 seed to make it to the Sweet 16 despite finishing second in conference play.

Returning Champion:

Stetson earned their first NCAA Tournament bid, losing to eventual champion UConn by 39 in the first round.

Format:

10 of the 12 teams (sorry, West Georgia and Bellarmine) make the field. The top six teams earn a bye into the Quarterfinals. In the first round, the #7 seed plays the #8 seed while the #9 seed plays the #10 seed. Interesting.

Two teams (Queens, and West Georgia) are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to their transition to Division 1. If Queens wins the conference tournament, the bid goes to the runner-up.

Contenders:

This well-balanced league was won by Lipscomb, who edged out North Alabama on tiebreakers. Both teams went 22-9 (14-4) and split the regular-season series. Lipscomb is the lone squad in the NET Top 100 (87th). All other teams are likely looking at a #16 seed, depending on how other small conference tournaments play out.

None of the teams are on a big winning streak. Florida Gulf Coast (18-13, 13-5) is on a 4-game winning streak.

Eastern Kentucky (18-13, 12-6) played Lousiville within two and Clemson within 13.

Sleeper:

North Florida (15-16, 8-10) has a win over an SEC team. Sure, that team is South Carolina, but that still impresses. The Ospreys went 2-1 in Quadrant 2 games (defeated Georgia Tech on the road). They play a high-scoring style (83.3 PPG, though they also give up 84.6).

How it should play out:

Lipscomb is comfortably the best team in the league. Using KenPom Efficiency, they are in the top 100 in offense and defense. They boast the league’s top scorer (Jacob Ognacevic). Ognacevic averages 20.3 PPG (12th in the country) and his career 65.8% rate on 2-point shots is fifth in conference history. This is the type of player big schools don’t want to see on their side of the bracket. If Lipscomb earns a 12-14 seed, they won’t be an easy out.

However, they aren’t unbeatable. They were swept by Eastern Kentucky, who could be their opponent in the semi-finals. Six teams won 18-22 games, making this a competitive conference.

Winner:

I am sticking with Lipscomb. They would be a team that many will pick for a first-round upset, and they may pull it off. As stated above, this conference should never be taken lightly.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: A-SUN

One of the best parts of the college basketball season is the conference tournaments. I especially love watching the tournaments where only the winner goes to the NCAA Tournament. When Bobby Knight used to say that everyone should be invited to the NCAA Tournament, I always felt that the conference tournaments accomplish that (it is true that some conferences don’t invite all teams to the tournaments, but it is a very low percentage).

The first preview of 2024 will be the Atlantic Sun Conference.

History: In 2013, tournament champion Florida-Gulf Coast became the first #15 seed in history to make it to the Sweet 16. The very next year, #14 Mercer defeated #3 Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The most recent NCAA Tournament conquest came in 2019 when #12 Liberty defeated #5 Mississippi State.

Returning Champion: Kennesaw State, the #1 seed, won three games by a combined 11 points (including two 67-66 wins) to take the tournament. In the NCAA Tournament, they put a deep scare into Xavier before succumbing by five.

Format: Ten of the 12 teams are in the field (Bellarmine and Central Arkansas didn’t make it in 2024). When the tournament gets to the semifinals, they reseed the teams so that the best team remaining plays the 4th best team remaining.

Favorite:  Stetson (19-12, 11-5) – The only team in the conference with a Quad 1 win (at UCF), the Hatters will enter this field as the #2 seed. Junior guard Jalen Blackmon is a handful for any team trying to curtail their offense. He averages 21.1 points per game, connecting on just shy of 40% of his three-point attempts. If this team grabs a lead late, Blackmon is the perfect guard as he won’t give up the game on the free throw line (92.1% this year; 91.4% in his career). While they are a solid offensive squad, their defense is easily exposed. According to the KenPom, they are 323rd in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Contenders: Eastern Kentucky (17-13, 12-4), Lipscomb (20-11, 11-5), Austin Peay (17-14, 10-6)

Live Long Shot: Florida Gulf Coast (14-17, 8-8)

Preview:

Stetson has the star scorer and a big quality non-conference win, but does that mean the rest of the conference should go home?  Of course not.

Eastern Kentucky came out of the gates flying. The Colonels were 7-0 in conference play heading into February and 9-1 after games of February 7th. While they did enough to hang on for the title down the stretch, they finished with back-to-back losses. Unlike Stetson, Eastern Kentucky relies on a balanced offensive attack as three players average 14+ points per game. Offense is their key, as they average 81.3 points per game, good for 28th in the country.

Lipscomb has the conference’s best NET rating (160th), as they own a decent Quadrant 2 win at Florida State and a three-point loss at Arkansas. They enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak by a combined 62 points, including wins over Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay (road). For much of the season, they were paced by a trio of junior guards (Will Pruitt, A.J. McGinnis, and Derrin Boyd). However, Boyd hasn’t played since February 10th. If he was healthy, I likely install this squad as both the favorites and as a team to watch in the NCAA Tournament, given their ability to drain three-pointers (38.1%; 12th in the country). I have no idea if Boyd is coming back or not.

Austin Peay enters the tournament on a 7-1 run, placing them in contention to take the championship. The Governors are a senior-laden operation, as their four top scorers are all in their senior year. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but (like most of their league brethren), they rely on their offense more than their defense. They rank 33rd in the country in three-point shooting percentage (37.1%), while committing only nine turnovers per game.

Florida Gulf Coast defeated Florida Atlantic this season, a win that has fallen into Quad 2. If they get past Queens in the first round, a date with Stetson would await. During the regular season, the Eagles split with the Hatters, winning at home by 24 while losing on the road by a point.

Bottom Line:

This tournament promises to be close and fun, and I would never count the winner out in the NCAA Tournament. It just feels as if teams in this conference have a knack for driving teams crazy in the Big Dance. If Lipscomb was whole, I would be choosing them. However, I have no idea if they will be or not.

Winner: Stetson