History: “Arch Madness” has been one of the most anticipated mid-major tournaments. With teams like Creighton (12 titles), Tulsa (4), Wichita State (4), and Loyola-Chicago (3) no longer around, it has lost some of its luster but remains an event to look forward to.
Despite its reputation, the Missouri Valley has received multiple bids once since 2016 (2021).
Returning Champion: Drake. As the #2 seed, the Bulldogs dominated the field last season, winning all games by double digits. In the final, they scorched top-seeded Bradley, 77-51. Seen as a possible bracket-buster in a 12-vs-5 game, they lost to eventual Final Four team Miami, 63-56.
Format: All 12 schools make the field. The top four teams advance to the quarterfinals automatically.
Favorite: Indiana State (26-5, 17-3)
The Sycamores, who haven’t reached the tournament since 2011, are an at-large threat, ranked #30 in the NET. Coach Josh Schertz has turned the program around in only three years. He went 11-20 in his debut season and is 49-18 since. They average 84.5 points (10th in the nation; 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency), thanks to a balanced attack that includes five players who average 10+ points. They are third in FG% (50.4), 2nd in 2-point% (62.4), 10th in 3-point% (38.4%), and 5th from the line (79.7%).
Contenders: Drake (25-6, 16-4), Bradley (21-10, 13-7), Belmont (19-12, 12-8), Northern Iowa (18-13, 12-8)
Live Long Shot: Illinois State (15-16, 9-11)
Preview:
As good as Indiana State is, this is far from a slam dunk.
Drake split with the Sycamores this year. The Bulldogs like to score as well (80.7) and rank 38th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Guard Tucker DeVries is the conference’s second-leading scorer, averaging 21.9 points. In the non-conference, they mauled Nevada 72-53 on a neutral court. They struggled a bit late, including a 3-OT win over a UIC squad that lost 20 games.
Bradley went 0-4 against Indiana State and Drake. A decent squad on both sides of the ball (they are in the Top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency), the Braves’ big issue is that they can’t quite keep up with the offenses that Indiana State and Drake put on the court. That said, they are experienced and well-balanced. It would not be surprising if they turned around that 0-4 record in this tourney.
Belmont finished the regular season on a 7-1 run, though the “one” was a 15-point loss to Drake. That said, the Bruins beat Drake by 22 earlier in the season. While many teams rely on experience, Belmont relies on a trio of sophomores who average between 16.7 and 17.5 points. Cade Tyson is second in the country in 3-point percentage (47.9%).
Northern Iowa always finds its way into the conversation. They enter the tournament on a 3-game winning streak that includes a win over Drake. The Panthers challenged themselves, playing in 13 Quad 1/2 games (5-8, with the five wins all happening in Quad 2). Sometimes, playing road games against North Texas and South Florida (plus neutral court games against North Carolina and Texas Tech (2-point loss)) can set you up well in March. That is what Northern Iowa is hoping for.
Illinois State defeated Indiana State on the road and Northern Iowa at home. Unlike the best teams in this league, they play at a methodical pace, as they will try to put faster teams to sleep. Their road isn’t easy, but I can bet that Drake wants nothing to do with their style in the quarterfinals.
Bottom Line:
If Indiana State and Drake make it to the title games, it is a 50/50 proposition that this conference will receive two bids. That is more likely if Drake wins that game. Anyway, it is hard to bet against either one. They have proven to be the best this conference has to offer even though other teams are certainly dangerous enough to pull off an upset.
Winner: Indiana State