History: Gonzaga has won this tournament four straight years and 20 times since 1999. The last time they didn’t appear in the title game was in 1997 when Saint Mary’s knocked off San Francisco. No team other than Saint Mary‘s or Gonzaga has won the title since San Diego defeated Gonzaga back in 2008.
Barring a strange outcome, the two superpowers will once again be the only teams moving on to the NCAA Tournament.
Returning Champion: Gonzaga. They defeated St. Mary’s by 26 in the title game after San Francisco gave them a mild 11-point scare in the semi-finals.
Format: All nine teams make the field. The format is one of my favorites: A “step ladder” where the top two teams advance automatically to the semi-finals. With the departure of BYU this season, the ladder is one rung shorter on the #2 seed side of the bracket.
Favorite: Gonzaga (24-6, 14-2)
For most of the season, St. Mary’s was the favorite but Gonzaga’s late-season push nudges them ahead of the Gaels. That said, this is not the same team you are accustomed to. They won only three Quad 1 games and were firmly on the bubble until they defeated Kentucky on the road late in the year. One thing that hasn’t changed is their ability to score, as they rank 6th in the nation with 85.6 points on 51.9% shooting.
Contenders: St. Mary’s (24-7, 15-1), San Francisco (22-9, 11-5), Santa Clara (19-12, 10-6)
Live Long Shot: San Diego (17-14, 7-9)
Preview:
It’s very hard to see the title game being anything other than Gonzaga – St. Mary’s. The tournament structure is set up to favor the top teams, and the top teams are by far the best in the league.
St. Mary’s is a top 50 offensive efficiency team but their calling card is on the defensive side of the ball (17th). They play at one of the slowest tempos in all of college basketball, which makes their ability to play defense even more devastating. Essentially, they limit possessions and suffocate you during those possessions. Teams score only 58.5 points (2nd lowest in the nation) on 39.1% shooting. For a team to play like Princeton, they need all players to be on the same page. St. Mary’s does that. Is this the year they broke through in the NCAA Tournament?
San Francisco has proven to be the third-best team, but they went 0-4 against St. Mary’s and Gonzaga. Those losses were their only league losses until Santa Clara beat them in the season finale. The Dons are a good team and Gonzaga should not take them lightly in the semifinals. Their average margin of victory is 12 points.
Santa Clara is on the St. Mary’s side of the bracket. The Broncos have a win over Gonzaga and defeated Washington State on a neutral court (in addition to losing to Utah State by two at home). They are middling, but are dangerous. It would be crazy, though also highly unlikely if Santa Clara took on San Francisco in the title game. Bubble teams across the country just cringed.
San Diego is Santa Clara’s potential opponent in the quarterfinals. This is significant because they split with Santa Clara (both teams won on the road). I won’t try to sugarcoat that they are 255th in the NET. Essentially, someone has to be the live long shot and they are as good of a choice as any.
Bottom Line:
Gonzaga or St. Mary’s? Gonzaga has more momentum, but St. Mary’s may just be able to put an end to their run of conference titles.
Winner: St. Mary’s