One of the best parts of the college basketball season is the conference tournaments. I especially love watching the tournaments where only the winner goes to the NCAA Tournament. When Bobby Knight used to say that everyone should be invited to the NCAA Tournament, I always felt that the conference tournaments accomplish that (it is true that some conferences don’t invite all teams to the tournaments, but it is a very low percentage).
The first preview of 2024 will be the Atlantic Sun Conference.
History: In 2013, tournament champion Florida-Gulf Coast became the first #15 seed in history to make it to the Sweet 16. The very next year, #14 Mercer defeated #3 Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The most recent NCAA Tournament conquest came in 2019 when #12 Liberty defeated #5 Mississippi State.
Returning Champion: Kennesaw State, the #1 seed, won three games by a combined 11 points (including two 67-66 wins) to take the tournament. In the NCAA Tournament, they put a deep scare into Xavier before succumbing by five.
Format: Ten of the 12 teams are in the field (Bellarmine and Central Arkansas didn’t make it in 2024). When the tournament gets to the semifinals, they reseed the teams so that the best team remaining plays the 4th best team remaining.
Favorite: Stetson (19-12, 11-5) – The only team in the conference with a Quad 1 win (at UCF), the Hatters will enter this field as the #2 seed. Junior guard Jalen Blackmon is a handful for any team trying to curtail their offense. He averages 21.1 points per game, connecting on just shy of 40% of his three-point attempts. If this team grabs a lead late, Blackmon is the perfect guard as he won’t give up the game on the free throw line (92.1% this year; 91.4% in his career). While they are a solid offensive squad, their defense is easily exposed. According to the KenPom, they are 323rd in the nation in defensive efficiency.
Contenders: Eastern Kentucky (17-13, 12-4), Lipscomb (20-11, 11-5), Austin Peay (17-14, 10-6)
Live Long Shot: Florida Gulf Coast (14-17, 8-8)
Preview:
Stetson has the star scorer and a big quality non-conference win, but does that mean the rest of the conference should go home? Of course not.
Eastern Kentucky came out of the gates flying. The Colonels were 7-0 in conference play heading into February and 9-1 after games of February 7th. While they did enough to hang on for the title down the stretch, they finished with back-to-back losses. Unlike Stetson, Eastern Kentucky relies on a balanced offensive attack as three players average 14+ points per game. Offense is their key, as they average 81.3 points per game, good for 28th in the country.
Lipscomb has the conference’s best NET rating (160th), as they own a decent Quadrant 2 win at Florida State and a three-point loss at Arkansas. They enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak by a combined 62 points, including wins over Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay (road). For much of the season, they were paced by a trio of junior guards (Will Pruitt, A.J. McGinnis, and Derrin Boyd). However, Boyd hasn’t played since February 10th. If he was healthy, I likely install this squad as both the favorites and as a team to watch in the NCAA Tournament, given their ability to drain three-pointers (38.1%; 12th in the country). I have no idea if Boyd is coming back or not.
Austin Peay enters the tournament on a 7-1 run, placing them in contention to take the championship. The Governors are a senior-laden operation, as their four top scorers are all in their senior year. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but (like most of their league brethren), they rely on their offense more than their defense. They rank 33rd in the country in three-point shooting percentage (37.1%), while committing only nine turnovers per game.
Florida Gulf Coast defeated Florida Atlantic this season, a win that has fallen into Quad 2. If they get past Queens in the first round, a date with Stetson would await. During the regular season, the Eagles split with the Hatters, winning at home by 24 while losing on the road by a point.
Bottom Line:
This tournament promises to be close and fun, and I would never count the winner out in the NCAA Tournament. It just feels as if teams in this conference have a knack for driving teams crazy in the Big Dance. If Lipscomb was whole, I would be choosing them. However, I have no idea if they will be or not.
Winner: Stetson