The trade:
The Yankees acquired outfielders Juan Soto and Trent Grisham from the Padres for C Kyle Higashioka and right-handed pitchers Michael King, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, and Drew Thorpe
This is one of those blockbusters that will be talked about for as long as baseball exists. It is the second blockbuster that Soto has been involved in over the last two years. If you asked the Padres last winter if they would be dealing Soto in the winter of 2023, they would have laughed at you. This was not a part of their plan.
From the Yankees’ perspective:
They are acquiring a player who is amongst the best hitters in history through age 25. 25-year-old players aren’t supposed to have a .284/.421/.524 career triple slash through 779 games with a higher walk rate (19%) than strikeout rate (17.1%). Sometimes, the word “unicorn” is thrown out too often when it comes to a professional athlete. In the case of Soto, he is a unicorn – a hitter who can define a generation. That isn’t hyperbole.
The 2023 Yankees were stale and boring. I watch a lot of baseball and can tell you that it was a rare season where the game felt like “background noise” to everything else going on around me. With one trade, the Yankees have livened up the fanbase again.
Are there flaws with Soto? Yes. He isn’t a good defensive player and while he did steal 12 bases in 2023, his BSR was -4.3. Those flaws are probably not as significant as his contract status, as he only has one year of control. During his time in Washington, when he was far away from free agency, he turned down an offer north of $400 million to stay. There is little doubt that he is going to seek $500 million for 2025 and beyond, which would dwarf Aaron Judge‘s $360 million pact. There is no doubt that Soto will beat that, and Judge would have to live with not being the highest-paid player on the squad if Soto is retained. Is that a problem? I doubt it. Judge understands the business – his contract helped set the tone for the classes that follow him.
Soto is not a dead pull hitter who is “made” for the short porch. That doesn’t concern me. He set a new career-best with 35 home runs in 2023 and I would expect the same level of power in 2024. If you are digging around for flaws in his offensive game, you are wasting your time. Those flaws don’t exist.
As for Grisham, he is a left-handed bat known for his solid defensive work and ability to steal some bags. His bat is not his calling card, but his 13.5% BB rate (2023) was well above league average. Additionally, he can provide some pop (13 home runs) and his pull percentage is above MLB average which suggests he might be able to take advantage of the porch. His reverse split makes him an appealing option to play over Alex Verdugo against left-handed pitching. Beyond that, he will be a cheap backup option who can pinch-run and be used as a defensive replacement. He has two more seasons of team control.
In the span of two nights, the Yankees solved one of their most pressing issues: The outfield. They went from Judge and a group of question marks (especially with Jasson Dominguez‘s injury) to a versatile strong group of four who should be well above league average. If they give Oswaldo Cabrera another chance to fill a super-utility role, he will provide additional depth. Everson Pereira didn’t hit much after his promotion and could spend time in Triple-A, ready to come up at a moment’s notice. Brandon Lockridge survived another Rule 5 and has a speed/defense profile – a profile I liken to former Yankee Tim Locastro.
If you are going to acquire a generational type of talent, you should feel some pain regardless of team control. I don’t think the Yankees were posturing with their reluctance to include King, who leaves a gaping hole in the pitching staff for the time being. I do think that the rumors that they wouldn’t include King or Thorpe were posturing as that was never going to fly. In the end, they ended up giving up both pitchers + two swingmen who figured to play roles in swallowing up some innings.
The three MLB pitchers they gave up will need to be replaced, whether that is internally or externally. Internally, expect to see a lot of Will Warren next spring as they ready him for his big league debut. Clayton Beeter was added to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft. He has an electric arm that I think is better suited for short relief, but he is stretched out to start. Yoendrys Gomez received a cup of coffee late in 2023. He is a 40-man roster guy with limited mileage, due to injuries. He reminds me of Jonathan Loaisiga as a kid with good stuff with health concerns. A move to the bullpen didn’t help Loaisiga much with the injuries, but perhaps that will help Gomez.
You will hear a lot about Chase Hampton, who can have a role late in the season. Some experts think he has more upside than Thorpe, though he did struggle in his first taste of Double-A (4.37 ERA and a K% that dropped from 40.5% in High-A to 27.4% in Double-A). Brendan Beck missed a lot of time due to injury but is already Rule 5 eligible after the 2024 season. If healthy, he has the polish (he was a polished arm coming out of college) that can get him to the big leagues sometime in the second half of the season. Matt Sauer, lost in the Rule 5 draft to the Royals, is not guaranteed to stick and could be further depth. From the left side, they have Edgar Barclay, who was dominant in Somerset before getting lit up in Scranton, which isn’t too concerning given the offensive environment. It should be noted that all ten of his appearances after his promotion were starts. Expect some minor league signings to add extra depth.
All that is nice, but the main focus will shift to pitchers who can be difference makers immediately, with the big fish being Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a pitcher with so much intrigue that Hal Steinbrenner reportedly is willing to go over $300 million (both in 2024 team salaries and total contract for Yamamoto). If that doesn’t work out, secondary targets would include Jordan Montgomery and Frankie Montas. It is easy to forget just how good Montas can be when healthy, and the Yankees could be interested in him even if they sign Yamamoto. I am not sure if the Yankees would shift to Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga. He doesn’t “fit” as the type of player they typically target internationally (Kei Igawa was a reactionary move).
I want Yamamoto. If you are going all-in with Soto, get the 25-year-old pitcher who will cost you nothing but money. The competition will be fierce for his services.
We take for granted how good the Yankees are at building bullpens because they rarely have a bad one. That is not the norm across baseball, as other organizations have trouble figuring out the right formula. The Yankees have several arms that should be ready sometime in 2024. I do not advise going big on relief pitching. Josh Hader is a waste of their resources, no matter how good he is.
From the Padres’ perspective:
They needed to clear money quickly, and Soto’s $30M+ was a quick and simple solution to that problem. Grisham provides additional relief, but this was all about clearing the salary of a player they had no hope of keeping.
You would think that would lead to desperation and a lesser prospect package. That is not what they received here, as they were able to use the Yankees’ desperation to make a splash to extract as much talent as possible. Given the mass pitching exodus and an elbow injury to Yu Darvish, the Padres needed pitching help. They received that in droves.
The immediate headliner is King, who pitched to a 2.23 ERA in nine starts after the Yankees moved him into the rotation. While his 4-seam fastball velocity was down from his 2022 heights, King didn’t miss a beat beyond a rough June that may have just been a dead arm period for a pitcher coming off of an injury. He is a strikeout machine with impressive command and control of four pitches, all of which he deploys in any count in any situation. There are durability concerns, and 2023 was the first time King cleared 100 innings in the big leagues. He will be 29 in May and comes with two years of control. If the Padres are bad in the first several months of 2024, he may become an attractive flip candidate to help with a rebuild/retool around the stars who remain.
From a prospect perspective, the headliner is Thorpe, who is coming off of a season where he was named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year. While that award doesn’t make him the best pitching prospect in baseball, he is still well-regarded in the industry after a season where he struck out 32.4% of batters at High-A Hudson Valley – only to follow that up with a 40% rate in 30.1 innings for Somerset. While he may dazzle in spring training and force the Padres’ hand, he is likely a second-half-of-the-season rotation candidate. His calling card is a dazzling changeup that continued to be effective against advanced hitters in Double-A. Will it translate as high as MLB? Until proven otherwise, we have to assume it can.
Brito and Vasquez both made their debuts for the 2023 Yankees and figured to have roles on the 2024 squad as depth starter/middle reliever types. Now, they have a clear opportunity to be full-time starters for the Padres. Brito (who will be 26 at the start of next season) pitched to a 4.28 ERA (4.74 FIP) over 90.1 innings with a 19.4% K and 7.5% BB. As he was coming up the Yankees chain, there were concerns about whether he had a true strikeout pitch. While his fading changeup has devastating action that can lead to some swing-and-miss, it is more of a pitch that induces ground balls when he is on his game.
Vasquez (who just turned 25) tossed 37.2 MLB innings in 2023, compiling a 2.87 ERA (4.98 FIP) with a 10.8% BB and 19.9% K. Known for the spin rate on his breaking ball, there is likely more swing-and-miss to come as he gains experience. Injuries are a part of his profile, and the Yankees have treated him very carefully over the years. In 42 minor league starts between 2022 and 2023, Vasquez didn’t average five innings per start. One could look at him as a modern type of pitcher – he won’t be asked to give you a ton of innings, but you hope the innings he does provide are high-quality.
As the last piece of the deal, the Yankees relieved some of their catching logjam by including Kyle Higashioka. Higashioka is quite a story – a player the Yankees could have lost to minor league free agency years ago who instead stuck it out and is now a proud owner of a 314-game MLB career. In that career (where he was mostly the backup catcher), Higashioka has 40 home runs in 923 plate appearances, making it his clear offensive calling card. He is a classic overachiever – a non-descript 7th-round pick out of high school back in 2008 who put in a lot of work, reached his dream, and can now forever brag that he was the only position player the Padres acquired from the Yankees for Juan Soto. He will be an asset for a staff that figures to be in flux in 2024. It would be funny if the Padres brought back Gary Sanchez as their primary catcher. If reports are accurate, Sanchez has been linked to San Diego.
The Bottom Line:
The pressure to win the World Series in 2024 starts now. That’s the nature of the beast in pinstripes, and it shouldn’t be underestimated just how good Soto was during the Nationals’ 2019 championship run. The bright lights didn’t faze him and he played like the superstar that he is.
The Yankees needed offense and acquired one of the best hitters in the game to help fix that. I can’t quibble with what they gave up to acquire such a player. Could they have held firm that they wouldn’t give up both King and Thorpe? Could they have insisted that the Padres take one of Brito/Vasquez but not both? Sure. But who in their right mind would allow that to hold up a trade like this? It wouldn’t make much sense. They have options to sure up the pitching. There weren’t many options to help out the offense. Hence, this deal makes perfect sense for both organizations. One needed young pitching, the other needed a big bat. They came together and magic was made.