Note: The first round of the Patriot League played out on March 5th. I missed it, but none of the contenders played.
History: Recent history has been all about Colgate, winners of three straight championships. Furthermore, the Raiders have played in the last six championship games, winning four of them. They are now tied with Bucknell and Holy Cross for the most championships in history, at six. Army and Loyola-Maryland have never won this tournament. Lehigh was the last team to win a main-bracket NCAA Tournament game when they defeated Duke in a 15-vs-2 upset back in 2012. The 2006 Bucknell squad defeated Arkansas in the 8-vs-9 game. The year before, the Bison defeated Kansas in a 14-vs-3 contest.
Returning Champion: Colgate. For the third straight season, Colgate dominated the tournament. They have played only one game within single digits in the past three years (a 77-69 win over Boston University in the 2021 quarterfinals).
Format: All ten schools make the tournament, with seeds 7-10 battling it out in the first round.
Favorite: Colgate (22-9, 16-2)
The only solace other teams can have is that perhaps Colgate hasn’t been quite as dominant this season as in years past. Both of their in-conference losses were at home, so opponents can look at that when they try to dethrone them (all tournament games are played at the site of the better-seeded team).
This is not an efficient or good offensive squad. They average 71.2 points on 46.6% shooting. Furthermore, they never get to the line and are putrid when they do (68.7%). If you watch a lot of college basketball, these metrics may surprise you as Colgate has been a solid offensive team in recent years. Last season, they shot 51.1% from the field while averaging 78.1 points.
They won a Quad 2 game this season when they went on the road to defeat Vermont in the non-conference.
Contenders: Boston University (15-16, 10-8), American (16-15, 10-8), Lafayette (11-20, 10-8)
Live Long Shot: Navy (13-17, 8-10)
Preview:
If Colgate didn’t exist, this would be a well-balanced league fighting it out for a #16 seed. Colgate is 131st in the NET. The next best school is Lehigh, ranked 274th. They enter the tournament 12-17 (9-9).
Boston University was able to secure the #2 seed, which is important as it keeps them away from Colgate until the last possible moment. The Terriers are one of the worst offensive teams in the NCAA (65.9 points) but they play at a slow tempo to try to win ugly. While the competition wasn’t great, they enter the tournament on a roll (five straight wins).
One of those five wins was over American, the only school besides Colgate with an overall winning record. The Eagles defeated Colgate on the road late in the season and would need to repeat that feat in a potential rematch in the semi-finals. Like other schools in this conference, they aren’t beating you with offense, though leading scorer Matt Rogers did average 16.4 points on 50.4% shooting.
Lafayette won ten of their 11 games within conference play (their only non-conference win was against a non-Division I school). They were hanging tough with Colgate at the top of the conference for a while before losing six of their last seven games. Just like (seemingly) everyone else in this league, they don’t score much and are in no rush on the court. It’s old-school basketball in a shot-clock world. A battle of patience.
Navy won their final four regular season games before knocking off Loyola-Maryland in the first round. Despite their less-than-stellar resume, they will next play #2 Boston College, a team they split with (62-60 win, 74-65 loss).
Bottom Line:
How can anyone bet against Colgate? Their only issue is their inability to get over the hump in the NCAA Tournament. There might be a few more holes to exploit this season than ever before, but who is good enough to exploit them?
Winner: Colgate.