Tom's Sports Blog

1. Auburn (27-2) (1) – Any team that wins ten Quadrant 1 games should be taken seriously. The Tigers have 16.
2. Duke (26-3) (2) – Since their loss to Clemson, Duke has won 6 straight by an average of 31.7.
3. Houston (25-4) (4) – Meanwhile, Houston has won eight in a row. Three of their four losses occurred in overtime.
4. Tennessee (24-5) (5) – Their conquest of Alabama was their 10th Quadrant 1 win. Their offensive rating does scare me, however.
5. Florida (25-4) (3) – In a conference filled with Quad 1 opportunities, the Gators are only 6-4. Some of that is tied into their non-conference slate. The Gators are one of three teams in the top ten offensively and defensively (Duke, Houston).
6. Alabama (23-6) (6) – Have they fallen off the pace for a #1 seed? Perhaps, but they finish with Florida and Auburn.
7. Michigan State (24-5) (8) – The surge continues, as the Spartans are 10-3 in Quadrant 1 and are nearly guaranteed the #1 seed in the Big Ten. I hate to say that a Tom Izzo team is a “sneaky” Final Four contender, but given the hype of the SEC and Duke, it fits.
8. St. John’s (26-4) (7) – The Final Four isn’t an impossible dream, but the offense will need to steal a game at some point.
9. Texas Tech (22-7) (9) – A slow-tempo team with a strong offensive efficiency will drive opponents crazy. Houston and Duke are the same, but their defenses are better.
10. Wisconsin (22-7) (10) – The Badgers have a solid upper-tier resume. They should have Elite Eight dreams.
11. Missouri (21-8) (15) – Like Alabama, their offense will carry them. Comfortably in the second tier within the SEC, the Tigers are 6-8 in Quad 1.
12. Clemson (24-5) (16) – The 3-OT loss at home to Georgia Tech keeps them from the top seed in the ACC. This senior-laden squad made a surprise run to the Elite Eight in 2024. The relative weakness of the ACC doesn’t mean you should ignore them.
13. Maryland (22-7) (11) – 6 Quad 1 wins, no bad losses, and a soul-crushing loss to Michigan State. Their non-conference schedule is the biggest knock.
14. Iowa State (22-7) (12) – The Cyclones had #1 seed dreams at one point. A big win over Arizona stopped a 4-5 slide.
15. Saint Mary’s (27-4) (17) – Some squads with slow tempos aren’t as good defensively as you think. The Gaels are different, as they are methodical offensively and tough defensively. They cruised to the WCC title and will be the #1 seed.
16. Marquette (22-7) (19) – It is easy to forget that the Golden Eagles went 4-0 against the Big Ten/SEC (Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Georgia). They get a second crack at UConn and St. John’s to close the season.
17. Louisville (23-6) (20) – Like Clemson, the Cardinals are kicking themselves for losing to Georgia Tech. It’s their only loss after losing to Kentucky on 12/14.
18. Michigan (22-7) (13) – The Wolverines were smoked at home by Illinois, likely ending their Big Ten title dreams. Positives? 8-4 in Quad 1 and only two Quad 4 games.
19. Kentucky (19-10) (18) – The Wildcats are 9-9 in Quadrant 1. The unbalanced league schedule meant two games against Tennessee (sweep) and Alabama (swept). Like Missouri, a top offense and not-so-great defense.
20. Oregon (21-8) (22) – Four straight wins after a 1-6 stretch destroyed their Big Ten dreams.
21. BYU (21-8) (24) – Incredible how a team that was going nowhere (15-8 without any big wins) has three Quad 1 wins in their last four games. Can they keep it going against Iowa State?
22. Purdue (20-9) (NR) – The Boilermakers stopped a 4-game losing streak by knocking off UCLA. They have eight Quad 1 wins (16 Quad 1 games)
23. Arizona (19-10) (21) – A weird season for the Wildcats. The computers love them (top 20 offense and defense; 7 Quad 1 wins; zero bad losses), but they are 2-4 in their last six games. It’s no wonder they are considered one of the unluckiest teams in the nation.
24. Texas A&M (20-9) (14) – The Aggies struggle against the top of the SEC and have four straight losses. Their defense remains strong, however, and they proved they can beat good teams in the non-conference.
25. Memphis (23-5) (NR) – I’ll finally give in and rank them, but I am still skeptical. Nice road win over UAB.

Dropped Out:

Mississippi State (20-9) (23) – I said it before conference play began: Once the SEC schedule begins, we will see separation. Being 20-9 and 8-8 within the conference isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but the top of the conference has exposed some weaknesses.
Mississippi (20-9) (25) – Nice bounceback over bubble squad Oklahoma, but Auburn torched them. The Rebels are over .500 within the conference (9-7) and own zero losses outside Quadrant 1. They finish with Tennessee and Florida.

Just Missed:

UC San Diego (26-4) – The Tritons are suddenly 34th in the NET and are legitimate at-large contenders if they were to lose in the conference championship game (I don’t think they make it with a loss before that). The Quad 4 home loss to Seattle is a dagger, though it borders on Quad 3.
VCU (24-5) – The Rams are cruising and looking strong for an at-large. Tip: Don’t lose at Duquesne this week.
Illinois (19-11) – Their spot in the NCAA Tournament was never in doubt, but they needed that road destruction of Michigan.
Vanderbilt (20-9) – Michigan, Louisville, and Missouri get a lot of press for their turnaround seasons. Vanderbilt was 9-23 last season and hasn’t sniffed the NCAA Tournament since 2017. First-year coach Mark Byington (32-4 for James Madison last season) has authored the resurgence.

1. Auburn (25-2) (1) – Given the depth of the SEC, it is shocking how well Auburn is playing. They finish the season with four Quad 1 opponents, with Kentucky and Texas A&M on the road. If they win all those games…
2. Duke (24-3) (2) – When I watch a college basketball game, I know that almost every team has a “run” in them. Guess what? Illinois had zero answers for Duke for the entire 40 minutes. Destruction.
3. Florida (24-3) (3) – Since an embarrassing 64-44 loss to Tennessee, the Gators are 6-0. Only one of those games was within single digits, a 9-point conquest at Auburn. Watch out.
4. Houston (23-4) (4) – It’s too bad Iowa State wasn’t at full strength, but no guarantee they beat Houston even if they were. The Cougars put their perfect road record on the line against Texas Tech tonight.
5. Tennessee (22-5) (6) – 9 Quad 1 wins. 5-4 record on the road. Their only concern is that their offense can go into slumps. The Volunteers are #1 in adjusted defense (KenPom).
6. Alabama (22-5) (5) – Bounced back from back-to-back losses with a win over Kentucky, completing the sweep. The run-and-gun Crimson Tide will go as far as their offense takes them.
7. St. John’s (24-4) (10) – While I rank the Red Storm high, they are not a threat for a #1 seed. The computers aren’t in love (thanks, Big East) but the conference is 99.9% clinched. What if they win the Big East Tournament and end the season 30-4? Can they rise to a #2?
8. Michigan State (22-5) (16) – The Spartans surged into the #1 slot in the Big Ten with huge wins over Purdue and Michigan. How often does a Tom Izzo squad feel underappreciated? They may not be “sexy” but they are good.
9. Texas Tech (21-6) (9) – The Red Raiders suffered a tough loss at TCU but bounced back against West Virginia. Can they complete the sweep of Houston?
10. Wisconsin (21-6) (8) – It looked like the Badgers would remain a game behind Michigan State, but Oregon put together one of the most impressive comebacks this season. They travel to Michigan State this weekend.
11. Maryland (21-6) (13) – Their weak non-conference schedule (best win: Villanova) forced them to prove themselves within the Big Ten. The Terrapins have six Quadrant 1 wins and zero bad losses. Additionally, they are a top-20 offense and defense (KenPom). They are tricky to evaluate, but we can’t underestimate their strength.
12. Iowa State (21-6) (11) – How much can you punish the Cyclones? They played Houston within nine despite being shorthanded, as their defense kept them in the game.
13. Michigan (20-6) (12) – Although still tied for the conference lead in the loss column, they blew a golden opportunity to take control with their home loss to Michigan State. They feel like a matchup problem once the tournament begins, but the guards need to be on top of their game.
14. Texas A&M (20-7) (7) – Their issues on offense are problematic. While they have been up and down within the SEC, I will point out that they defeated Purdue, Texas Tech, Creighton, and Ohio State in non-conference play.
15. Missouri (20-7) (18) – Reminder that the Tigers 8-24 (0-18) in the SEC last season. While the new transfer rules make it easier to turn things around, they had to turn things around while playing within the nation’s top conference. It doesn’t matter how the story ends because there is no ruining what they have accomplished.
16. Clemson (22-5) (17) – If the Tigers can sweep their final four games (they should be favored in all of them), they can steal the conference title from Duke (tougher schedule). That would be amazing, even if it doesn’t reflect the strength of the teams.
17. Saint Mary’s (25-4) (23) – I won’t dig into the formulas, but there is zero doubt in my mind that the Gaels are better than Gonzaga, regardless of what computers spit out. They have clinched the #1 seed in the WCC tournament and are an NCAA Tournament threat.
18. Kentucky (18-9) (19) – The Wildcats are 8-8 in Quad 1. Inconsistency is an issue (4-6 in their last ten) but they can beat anyone.
19. Marquette (20-7) (14) – The Golden Eagles haven’t been themselves since an 8-0 start and have fallen out of the Big East race. Their tough non-conference schedule should help them come tournament time.
20. Louisville (21-6) (25) – The Cardinals are 15-1 in their last 16 games with a realistic shot to finish on a 19-1 run.
21. Arizona (18-9) (20) – Like Kentucky, Arizona is 8-8 in Quad 1 contests. They have taken a step back (1-3 in their last four games) but every game was winnable.
22. Oregon (20-8) (NR) – Are the Ducks back on track? Four straight wins and nine Quad 1 conquests, more than any team outside the SEC.
23. Mississippi State (19-8) (21) – The Bulldogs are 7-7 in conference and Quad 1 play. It’s not an insane profile, but it is solid.
24. BYU (19-8) (NR) – The Cougars have won four in a row, including a big road conquest (even if it was controversial) over Arizona. Their bad non-conference slate resonates, but I think they deserve recognition this week.
25. Ole Miss (19-8) (22) – The Rebels have zero losses outside of Quad 1. They barely hang on to their Top 25 spot after back-to-back losses to Mississippi State and Vanderbilt.

Dropped Out:

Purdue (19-9) (15) – The Boilermakers are fading down the stretch, losing four straight games. Their chance to win the Big Ten is likely gone. They will use their final three games to get back on track for the Big Ten Tournament.
Kansas (18-9) (24) – A needed blowout win over Oklahoma State on Saturday. It doesn’t hide that the Jayhawks are struggling to find their groove.

Just Missed:

Memphis (22-5) – I appreciate their willingness to play a top non-conference slate. They are in my Top 25 mix every week, though I haven’t been able to squeeze them in.
VCU (22-5) – The Rams mauled George Mason to take over first place in the Atlantic 10. Their issue? Zero Quad 1 wins (only one Quad 1 game) and a Quad 4 loss (11-1).
UCLA (20-8) – The Bruins would be in my Top 25, but that home loss to Minnesota last week was disqualifying.
UC San Diego (24-4) – The Tritons have nine straight wins and a non-conference victory over Utah State. Can they make it as an at-large if they win their remaining regular season games, only to lose in the conference tournament final? They would at least need to be discussed.

A look at the resumes of some of the intriguing mid-major schools. I am not including VCU, St. Mary’s or any of the Mountain West schools. Rather, I am looking at deep sleepers.

UC-San Diego (Big West; 22-4, NET: 43) – The term “dangerous team” is overused on Selection Sunday, but nobody wants to see the Tritons as their first-round matchup. They split road games against two strong Mountain West teams (Utah State, San Diego State) and are in the Top 50 range in the KenPom offense and defense ratings. What else is fun? This is their first year of NCAA Tournament eligibility.
UC Irvine (Big West; 22-4, NET: 63) – If the Tritons don’t win the conference tournament, the Anteaters can fill the void as a dangerous tournament team. Their overall profile isn’t as strong (their toughest non-conference game is at Oregon State, which they lost by 12). 54-year-old coach Russ Turner deserves a “step up” job.
Drake (MVC; 23-3, NET: 56) – The Bulldogs won the Charleston Classic, knocking off Vanderbilt by 11 in the title game. Even with that and a potentially gaudy record, an at-large bid is not likely in the cards, given their three conference losses. If they make the tournament, their ability to control tempo (very slow) could cause a headache for their first-round opponent.
Yale (Ivy; 16-6, NET: 66) – The Bulldogs have emerged as the Ivy League favorites, and they are fresh off of a first-round shocker in 2024 (defeated Auburn in a 13-vs-4 game). While they don’t own Quadrant 1 wins, they played Purdue within eight on the road early in the season.
McNeese (Southland; 20-6, NET: 70) – Never afraid to challenge themselves, the Cowboys lost to Alabama by eight and Mississippi State by three in the non-conference. Owners of one of the best non-conference schedules in the country have predictably dominated within their conference. They were 30-3 heading into the NCAA Tournament last year but drew Gonzaga. I would love to see if they can get over the hump this year. Head coach Will Wade had a controversial tenure at LSU but will that be forgiven with the new NIL/transfer rules?
Liberty (Conference USA; 21-5, NET: 68) – I love it when strong mid-major schools face off. That happened earlier this year when Liberty knocked off McNeese in the Paradise Jam championship (after knocking off Kansas State in the semi-finals). Unlike McNeese, Liberty’s non-conference slate wasn’t impressive, but their ability to knock down a high percentage of three-pointers makes them a dangerous opponent.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (23-2) (1) – As strong as the SEC is, no other team is in the neighborhood of Auburn’s 14 Quadrant 1 wins. Defeating Alabama on the road further cements their greatness.
2. Duke (22-3) (3) – The Blue Devils need to be careful with Clemson only one game back. The relatively weak ACC makes it hard for them to improve their #1 seed resume, so beating Illinois this weekend would be big towards that effort.
3. Florida (22-3) (4) – The Gators, a top-ten offense and defense, have a stronger overall schedule than Duke – however, Duke played a tougher non-conference slate. The race for the #1 seeds will be fascinating.
4. Houston (21-4) (5) – The Cougars continue to be the nation’s lone unbeaten road squad, adding Arizona to their list of victims.
5. Alabama (21-4) (2) – It’s tough to find that spot where you want to “drop” a team sometimes. This ranking is appropriate, though you can argue them ahead of Houston. It’s razor-thin.
6. Tennessee (21-5) (6) – Avenged their earlier loss to Vanderbilt. This followed their road loss to Kentucky, who swept the Volunteers. “Holding serve” with their ranking is appropriate.
7. Texas A&M (20-5) (8) – Winners of five in a row, four of their next five games are against Mississippi State (road), Tennessee, Florida (road), and Auburn. That schedule keeps them in the #1 seed conversation.
8. Wisconsin (20-5) (10) – On December 10th, the Badgers lost their third straight game, causing some nervousness in Madison. They are 11-2 since, including their road conquest of Purdue. Please don’t sleep on their resume.
9. Texas Tech (20-5) (12) – Their 111-106 double-overtime win over Arizona State was entertaining. When margins are slim, losing to St. Joseph’s (neutral) and UCF (home) will impact your seed.
10. St. John’s (22-4) (9) – Their loss to Villanova was rough, but the follow-up (win over Creighton) was more important. The Red Storm will need to collapse to lose the regular-season title.
11. Iowa State (20-5) (14) – The conference title is out of reach, but if they can beat Houston on the road this weekend…
12. Michigan (20-5) (15) – Even with the hiring of Dusty May, nobody’s bingo card included a 20-5, Big Ten-leading Michigan squad. They are off until Friday when they welcome Michigan State to Ann Arbor.
13. Maryland (20-6) (17) – I have picked on their non-conference schedule all year, but the Terrapins have six Quadrant 1 wins, no bad losses, and are a top 20 offensive and defensive squad.
14. Marquette (19-6) (16) – Not much to say about the Golden Eagles this week.
15. Purdue (19-7) (7) – The computers still like Purdue, and for good reason: 21 of their 26 games are in Quadrant 1/2. They are 14-7. The Boilermakers are in a little slump, which isn’t unexpected.
16. Michigan State (20-5) (13) – Congrats to Tom Izzo on breaking Bobby Knight’s Big Ten record. The Spartans are in the Big Ten race, with two huge games this week (Purdue, and Michigan).
17. Clemson (21-5) (20) – It’s hard to get a read on the Tigers, but they followed up their win over Duke with a 20-point win over North Carolina and a 26-point road win over Florida State. They are in the Top 25 in the KenPom.
18. Missouri (19-6) (22) – The Tigers survived their gauntlet before having things ease up a bit last week (blowout wins over Oklahoma and Georgia (road)). For an SEC squad, the rest of their schedule is manageable – though a big game against Alabama awaits this week.
19. Kentucky (17-8) (23) – The Wildcats have wins over Tennessee (2), Florida, Texas A&M, and Duke. Their defense escapes them at times, but they have established that they can beat anyone.
20. Arizona (17-8) (11) – The Wildcats lost a pair last week, but there is no denying their overall strength. With expectations lower, will they “surprise” during the Big Dance?
21. Mississippi State (18-7) (19) – The Bulldogs are 6-6 within the SEC, struggling somewhat against the upper tier. That said, they completed a sweep of Ole Miss last week.
22. Ole Miss (19-7) (18)—Despite being swept by Mississippi State, the computers like the Rebels more. This can be tough to understand, but don’t overanalyze things.
23. Saint Mary’s (23-4) (25) – The Gaels are 9-4 in Quadrant 1/2. The NCAA Tournament hasn’t been nice to them, but it only takes one run…
24. Kansas (17-8) (21) – Road games are an issue for the Jayhawks. Their only in-conference road wins are against Central Florida, Cincinnati (solid), and TCU. It’s tough to dismiss a team with their talent level, but where are the results?
25. Louisville (20-6) (NR) – Their early-season loss to Duke hurts their shot at winning the regular-season title, though they did defeat Clemson, which could impact a 3-way tie for the title.

Dropped Out:

Creighton (18-8) (24) – The Blue Jays are good, but they blew their shot at taking over the conference lead by losing two games last week.

Just Missed:

Memphis (21-5) – The AAC is so mediocre that it’s hard for me to justify their struggles. Sure, they are 11-2 within the conference, but too many wins are close, and losing to Wichita State is bad.
New Mexico (22-4) – The Lobos have won eight in a row, including two wins over Utah State and a conquest of Boise State. The clear leaders of the Mountain West pack, a solid non-conference slate will help their at-large cause if it comes to that.
UCLA (19-7) – The Bruins kept it close against Illinois on the road, following it up with a win over Indiana.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (21-2) (1) – How good are the Tigers? I would have debated whether they should stay at #1 even if Duke won their game.
2. Alabama (20-3) (3) – Auburn’s loss allowed Alabama to tie them atop the SEC. They still play each other twice. The first game is this weekend. Defense won’t be their calling card, but they are now in the Top 40 in defensive efficiency.
3. Duke (20-3) (2) – The Blue Devils proved one thing: It is hard to go unbeaten in conference play, no matter how much better you are than the competition. They are still the lone team in the top five offensively and defensively.
4. Florida (20-3) (6) – The lone knock on the Gators is a mediocre non-conference schedule. A win at Auburn erases a little of that.
5. Houston (19-4) (4) – The Cougars are the only power conference school without a road loss.
6. Tennessee (20-4) (5) – Beat Missouri and Oklahoma (road game) and move down a spot? It comes down to rewarding Florida for their win.
7. Purdue (19-5) (7) – The Boilermakers are 11-1 in their last 12 games and 14-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 contests.
8. Texas A&M (18-5) (10) – The Aggies have four SEC road wins (Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri).
9. St. John’s (21-3) (12) – The Red Storm needed to prove themselves last week and passed the test. Villanova (road) and red-hot Creighton will try to humble them.
10. Wisconsin (19-5) (14) – The Badgers are 9th best in OFFENSIVE efficiency and their tempo rating is mid-tier. That isn’t their typical style (304th in Adjusted Tempo last season)
11. Arizona (17-6) (17) – One of the hottest teams in the country, the Wildcats – Houston game on Saturday may determine the Big 12 champion.
12. Texas Tech (18-5) (9) – Played Arizona within nine on the road and are the only team to beat the Wildcats since December 14th.
13. Michigan State (19-4) (11) – The Spartans lost a pair on the West Coast but bounced back with a home win over Oregon. Their one game against Purdue is coming soon.
14. Iowa State (18-5) (8) – TCU isn’t very good, but the Cyclones needed that blowout to stop the bleeding. No longer a #1 seed contender.
15. Michigan (18-5) (22) – Only one blowout loss and one game in Quadrant 4. The Cardiac Wolverines’ have outscored their opponents by 18 in their last five wins.
16. Marquette (18-6) (13) – This may be too high for the slumping Golden Eagles, but it’s still a solid profile. Their schedule eases up before revenge games against UConn and St. John’s to close the season.
17. Maryland (18-6) (15) – Their poor non-conference slate knocks them down, but they are 2-3 in Quadrant 1A games, all within in the Big Ten. All three losses were close road games (Purdue, Ohio State, Oregon)
18. Ole Miss (18-6) (NR) – The Rebels didn’t play a great non-conference schedule. However, the strength of the SEC has pushed their overall SOS to one of the toughest. Does it get easier? That’s funny, as their remaining schedule includes Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida.
19. Mississippi State (17-6) (25) – The Bulldogs received a much-needed break, playing only one game last week (a road win over Georgia). Their next three games? Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M.
20. Clemson (19-5) (20) – The Tigers put pressure on Duke with their Saturday win, as they own the conference tiebreaker. The profile is middling but (obviously) tournament-worthy.
21. Kansas (16-7) (16) – The computers still love the Jayhawks, thanks to a strong non-conference schedule and only six Quad 3/Quad 4 games. That said, they aren’t playing near expectations, following up a quality win over Iowa State with a loss to Kansas State.
22. Missouri (17-6) (18) – The Tigers lost two games last week by a combined seven points against Tennessee (road) and Texas A&M. They’ll live.
23. Kentucky (16-7) (19) – Their profile is up-and-down but the Wildcats are 7-6 in Quadrant 1. They are a mid-tier SEC team, which is nothing to be ashamed about.
24. Creighton (18-6) (NR) – The Blue Jays are (suddenly) the only threat to a St. John’s conference championship. If they defeat UConn and St. John’s this week, they will be in the driver’s seat.
25. Saint Mary’s (21-4) (21) – An 8-4 record in Quadrant 1/2. Their loss to San Francisco isn’t damaging, as their NET is in the Top 25.

Dropped Out:

UConn (16-7) (23) – Their defense is not championship caliber. Can they flip the switch? Certainly. But they have to prove it.
Oregon (16-8) (24) – The Ducks are 40th in the KenPom and 35th in the NET. Their strength of schedule + Quad 1 wins will impress the committee but the bleeding must stop.

Just Missed:

Memphis (20-4) – Plenty of wins, a middling computer profile. I feel like the outlier by keeping them out of the Top 25.
New Mexico (20-4) – The Lobos have taken over the Mountain West, courtesy of six straight wins. The committee will appreciate their strong schedule, though they will be docked for that awful home loss to New Mexico State (Quadrant 4).
UCLA (18-6) – After a strong start to their campaign, the Bruins fell off the radar during a 1-5 stretch. Now? They have won seven straight since that stretch, including wins over Wisconsin, Oregon, and Michigan State.
Louisville (18-6) – Their profile includes zero bad losses ane enough quality wins to keep them on the edge.