College Basketball Top 25: 12/18/23

Top 25:

1. Purdue (10-1) (2) – Non-conference wins: Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and Arizona. I don’t care what the NET rankings say – how can this squad not be the best in the country?

2. Kansas (10-1) (3) – Their non-conference conquests include Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn with a solid win over Indiana. Before the 2023 calendar runs out, an in-state rivalry game with Wichita State will need to be conquered.

3. Houston (11-0) (4) – At first glance, you may not love Houston’s schedule (204th non-conference strength of schedule). However, they do own four Quadrant 1 wins (only Purdue has more) and their defense is the most suffocating in the nation. The should get through 2023 unbeaten, as their final two games are against Texas State and Penn.

4. UConn (10-1) (5) – Their non-conference slate ends with a win over Gonzaga, adding the Bulldogs to their conquests of Texas and North Carolina. Every win has been by double digits.

5. Arizona (8-1) (1) – Technically, they lost a neutral-court game against Purdue – but it was played in Indianapolis. Their schedule has been light (only three games since November 23rd) but that now change as they have four games before the calendar changes to 2024, including matchups with Alabama and Florida Altantic. By the way, the Wildcats are the only team in the country that is in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

6. Marquette (9-2) (6) – The Golden Eagles had a major scare against a hot shooting St. Thomas (MN) squad last week. In a season filled with fun early-season upsets, that one would have ranked near the top. Anyway, they survived it and will hope for less drama in their conference game at Providence on Tuesday.

7. Tennessee (8-3) (11) – They have turned things around after a 3-game losing streak, as they are the owners of a 4-mgae winning streak (including a win over Illinois). I am giving them extra credit for their tough schedule, though they will need to improve on their 2-3 mark aganinst Quadrant 1 competition.

8. Florida Atlantic (9-2) (10) – The Owls needed to grind one out against St. Bonaventure – but they did end up winning by double-digits. They are 5-1 against Quad 1/Quad 2 competition, though they get dinged for their Quadrant 4 loss to Bryant. They got a shot at Arizona next before ending their 2023 slate with a game at Florida Gulf-Coast.

9. BYU (10-1) (14) – Am I turned off by their 8-0 mark in Quad 3/Quad 4 games? Yes. Their schedule is weak and 2023 doesn’t end with a bang (Bellarmine and Wyoming).

10. Baylor (9-1) (8) – Every team is going to lose at some point. Every team is going to get destroyed at some point. Baylor’s first loss certainly met that criteria, as Michigan State finally woke up to beat them by 24 (and it didn’t even feel that close). The Bears have yet to play a true road game, and that won’t change against Duke (Madison Square Garden).

11. Creighton (9-2) (7) – UNLV (a 4-5 squad that is the only Mountain West team under .500) somehow beat the Blue Jays by 15. They bounced back to knock off Alabama, which just shows you how crazy of a game college basketball is.

12. Illinois (8-2) (13) – Sometimes, the best way to improve your ranking is by having a quiet week (a win over Colgate).

13. Kentucky (8-2) (17) – The Wildcats are loving their games against the ACC in the non-conference, beating Miami and North Carolina. They can add a third win by beating Louisville this week.

14. Colorado State (10-1) (16) – Predictable demolition of Colorado – St. Pueblo. The Rams have another non-Division I game coming up (Adams State). The beginning of 2024, however, promises to be much tougher: Back-to-back conference games against one-loss New Mexico and Utah State.

15. North Carolina (7-3) (9) – Back-to-back losses against UConn and Kentucky heading into a game against unbeaten Oklahoma. One can’t deny their relatively tough schedule, but you still want to see better than 1-3 record in Quad 1.

16. Oklahoma (10-0) (20) – On one hand, it isn’t their fault that USC and Arkansas have faltered (neither win is a Quad 1 win). On the other hand, they are 0-0 in Quad 1 games and have yet to play a true road game. Let’s see what the Sooners do against North Carolina on Wednesday.

17. Clemson (9-1) (15) – The Tigers played only one game this week, a 2-point loss at Memphis. It dropped their Quad 1 record to a still impressive 3-1.

18. Virginia (9-1) (18) – Northeastern (a 4-7 Colonial school) played Virginia to the wire on Saturday before succumbing by two. The Cavaliers have no offense to speak of but remain one of the strongest defensive schools in the country.

19. Texas (8-2) (19) – Computer rankings can be wacky early in the season, but it should be noted that the Longhorns are 57th in the NET. Why is that? They are 0-2 in Quad 1 games and 7-0 in Quad 4 games. They have a game coming up against UNC-Greensboro, the squad that knocked off Arkansas earlier this season.

20. Memphis (8-2) (25) – After losses to Villanova (neutral) and Ole Miss (road), Memphis has won three in a row, including wins over Texas A&M and Clemson. Their non-conference strength of schedule ranks 10th, and they have enough solid wins over big-time schools to justify this ranking. They aren’t done yet, as they play Virginia next.

21. Duke (7-3) (22) – It’s been a strange season for the Blue Devils. Typically the owner of one of the toughest schedules in the nation, Duke has only two Quadrant 1 games (a loss to Arizona and a win over Michigan State). It would serve them well to beat Baylor on Wednesday.

22. Colorado (8-2) (21) – For now, their neutral court demolition of Miami is “only” a Quadrant 2 conquest while their loss to Florida State is a Quadrant 3 loss. That leaves a resume that is light but solid. The new year brings three straight conference road games, including one against Arizona.

23. Gonzaga (8-3) (12) – Where’s the big resume-boosting win this year? They are 0-3 in Quadrant 1 games and their 2-0 record in Quadrant 2 is not great (USC and Syracuse). They get a crack at San Diego State as their last big non-conference game.

24. James Madison (10-0) (23) – Beating Michigan State looks better after the Spartans crushed Baylor. It’s hard for the Dukes to earn big wins the rest of the way, though Appalachian State is helping boost the Sun Belt.

25. Wisconsin (8-3) (24) – Chicago State, who just defeated Northwestern (the only team to beat Purdue) is up next for the Badgers, a team that has its share of big wins (Virginia, Marquette, Michigan State) and forgivable losses (Arizona (though it was a blowout), Tennessee).

Dropped Out:

None.

Just Missed:

Ole Miss (10-0) – Their win over Memphis remains their best conquest, though it was a home game (which puts it just below the Quad 1 line). As one of the remaining unbeaten teams in the country, they still deserve respect.

Princeton (10-1) – It seems crazy that their Quadrant 1 win is their road win over Duquesne instead of their neutral court win over Rutgers (Quad 2). Like with many similar schools, they will need a gaudy record to have a shot at an at-large if they were to lose in the Ivy League tournament.

New Mexico (10-1) – It is nearly time for the Mountain West to start sorting itself out. As of now, four teams are in the NET Top 30 (Colorado State, San Diego State, New Mexico, Utah State) with one other team in the Top 50 (Nevada). It will be a fun ride and many of these teams will receive NCAA Tournament bids.

My Take: Yankees Complete Trade with Dodgers

The trade:

The Yankees acquired LHP Victor Gonzalez and IF Jorbit Vivas from the Dodgers for IF Trey Sweeney

The suspense is over. After 24 hours of speculating over who was involved in this trade, we received an official announcement today. While relatively minor, it isn’t a throwaway deal.

The Dodgers needed roster space. The Yankees had roster space to spare. Mix those and you have the ingredients for a trade.

With Wandy Peralta on the free agent market, the Yankees needed left-handed relief help. Gonzalez, who won’t be a free agent until after the 2026 campaign, owns a 3.22 ERA (3.35 FIP) over 89.1 career innings with a 23.2% K, 8.4% BB, and 58.1% GB. In almost three seasons with the Yankees, Peralta pitched to a 2.82 ERA (4.06 FIP) over 153 innings with a 21% K, 10.3% BB and 56.5% BB. As you may suspect, Gonzalez is a sinker-heavy pitcher (63.7% usage). While Peralta has a sinker in his profile, his most used pitch is a changeup.

Also important: The Yankees will save money if they replace Peralta with Gonzalez. Gonzalez is projected to make around $1 million while Peralta earned just over $3 million in 2023. It is possible that the Yankees still have interest in Peralta, but do they need two ground ball heavy left-handed relievers?

The prospect swap is intriguing.

Sweeney, a shortstop who was chosen in the first round of the 2021 draft out of Eastern Illinois, is coming off a season where he hit .252//367/.411 (118 wRC+) in Double-A Somerset with 13 home runs and 20 stolen bases. Impressively, he compiled a strikeout rate below 20% (19.1) while walking at a 13.8% clip. There have been questions in the past about whether he can stick at shortstop or move to another defensive position. If third base is his ultimate destination, the offensive bar goes up. Just like with the Yankees, it is hard to crack the Dodgers’ 40-man roster. Sweeney is Rule 5 eligible after the 2024 season, so this may not be his final destination over the next several months.

Vivas, a left-handed bat who signed for $300,000 back in 2017,  has started 318 games at second base and 112 games at third base in his minor league career. From his Pipeline profile, his MLB position would likely be second base. In 2023, he was solid at Double-A Tulsa (.280/.391/.436 (123 wRC+) in 109 games) before struggling upon his promotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City (.226/.339/.294 (63 wRC+) in 26 games). He will start 2024 in Scranton, with an opportunity to make it to MLB at some point during the season. Can he rise to the point where he can be a replacement for Gleyber Torres in 2025? Maybe. A lot can happen between now and then. As this is his final option year, he will need to prove that he is worthy of a 26-man roster slot in 2025 and beyond before we even dream of him becoming an everyday player.

Bottom Line:

The Yankees had the leverage, as the Dodgers needed space. They used that leverage to extract an intriguing reliever while swapping out a 2024 Rule 5 eligible infielder for a 40-man roster infielder with one option remaining. I must wonder if the Dodgers asked for a pitcher but the Yankees were able to get them off that ask. From that perspective, it is a win for the Yankees. However, the Dodgers accomplished their goal as well.

While it is expected that your first-round picks will eventually gain value, we can still say that this is a win for player development.

The Yankees have been busy this winter. They are improving the team at the margins (Alex Verdugo, Trent Grisham, Gonzalez) while adding the superstar outfielder (Juan Soto). There is still work to be done, especially with the rotation.

If you are a Yankees fan, you have to be excited about the direction they are taking for 2024.

College Basketball Top 25: 12/11/23

Top 25:

1. Arizona (8-0) (1) – It wasn’t a busy week, but it was a productive one as the Wildcats mauled Wisconsin by 25. The crazy end to their non-conference schedule has three more games: Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic.

2. Purdue (9-1) (2) – Purdue is pouring it on offensively, including a 92-point effort against Alabama. Coming up next is a big game against Arizona – it is one of those games that the committee could look at when determining the #1 overall seed, etc.

3. Kansas (9-1) (3) – Their offensive efficiency is concerning for a top-tier school, but only Marquette has registered a win over the Jayhawks. A tricky road game against Indiana awaits.

4. Houston (10-0) (4) – One of two Division I schools with double-digit wins (Purdue-Fort Wayne is the other), the Cougars’ defense remains elite even if the competition hasn’t been. Texas A&M isn having an up-and-down start, but they should provide some competition for Houston.

5. UConn (9-1) (5) – The Huskies added North Carolina to their list of non-conference conquests (including Texas and Indiana). Every win has been by double-digits – can they keep that up against Gonzaga this week?

6. Marquette (8-2) (6) –  The Golden Eagles, who own the 15th-best non-conference schedule in the country, avenged their loss to Wisconsin by destroying Texas. They own wins over Illinois, Kansas, and Texas this season – their final non-conference game will bring down the strength (St. Thomas), but they have earned their stripes.

7. Creighton (8-1) (9) – There is a certain top-heaviness to the Big East, and it should be fun watching them battle for the league title. The Blue Jays haven’t flashed great schedule strength, but they are on the cusp of being a top ten school in both offense (11th) and defense (8th).

8. Baylor (9-0) (11) – The Bears finally enter my Top 10. Will they be 11-0 following their games against Michigan State and Duke?

9. North Carolina (7-2) (7) – Their 7-game gauntlet is going as well as it reasonably can for the Tar Heels, as they are 3-2. The final two games are against Kentucky and unbeaten Oklahoma.

10. Florida Atlantic (7-2) (10) – The Owls only played one game this week, a competitive loss to Illinois. As their non-conference gets closer to conclusion, the Owls’ resume includes a strong win over Texas A&M, a decent win over Virginia Tech, a good loss to Illinois, and a bad loss to Bryant. They have one more big test: Arizona.

11. Tennessee (6-3) (NR) – I am always willing to admit a mistake: Unranking Tennessee last week was stupid. While they did own a three-game losing streak, those losses were to Purdue (4 points), Kansas (9), and North Carolina (8). They made up for that somewhat with a win over Illinois. The rest of their non-conference isn’t nearly as difficult.

12. Gonzaga (7-2) (8) – Life hasn’t been so easy for the Bulldogs, who lost a non-conference game to in-state rival Washington. They have played only one game against a ranked opponent, a loss to Purdue by ten. A huge game looms against UConn.

13. Illinois (7-2) (16) – A mixed-bag week for the Fighting Illini, who took care of Florida Atlantic before losing to Tennessee. The KenPom continues to like them, as they are in the top 25 both offensively (24th) and defensively (14th).

14. BYU (8-1) (14) – Their run to an undefeated non-conference slate came to an abrupt end in a 4-point loss to Utah (road).

15. Clemson (9-0) (24) –  A decent non-conference schedule (55th) that features a solid win on Alabama’s home court. In a battle of unbeaten squads this week, they knocked off TCU. The Tigers have a path to enter 2024 undefeated, but a roadblock is coming up next (a true road game against Memphis).

16. Colorado State (9-1) (12) – The Rams take a loss to St. Mary’s, a team that is hoping to right their ship after uneven early-season results. The rest of the month should offer little resistance before a big conference opener against New Mexico (9-1).

17. Kentucky (7-2) (18) – A predictable rebound win over Penn after their loss UNC Wilmington. Now let’s see what happens in their game against North Carolina this week.

18. Virginia (8-1) (20) – Their biggest feather is a win over Texas A&M while they are still licking their wounds after that bad loss to Wisconsin. On 12/19, they travel to Memphis for what promises to be a tricky contest.

19. Texas (7-2) (13) – The Longhorns aren’t instilling a lot of confidence. They were destroyed by Marquette this past week to add to their 10-point loss to UConn earlier this season. Essentially, they are winning the games they should win but have yet to pull off an impressive victory. I don’t think LSU provides that opportunity, but they better avoid a loss.

20. Oklahoma (9-0) (NR) – It is time to rank the Sooners, who own wins over USC and Arkansas. Intrigued to see what they do against North Carolina (12/20).

21. Colorado (7-2) (NR) – The Buffaloes outscored Miami, 53-27, in the second half in one of the most dominating performances you will find this season. Things ease up the rest of the year before they start the new year with a conference game against Arizona.

22. Duke (6-3) (21) – Charlotte provided little resistance. Hofstra may be a tougher contest leading into their game against Baylor. The Blue Devils have their share of critics thus far in 2023 – a win over the Bears (12/20) will shut those concerns down a tad.

23. James Madison (9-0) (23) – They started off conference play with a 15-point win over Old Dominion. If they want at-large consideration in March, the Dukes will need a gaudy record. Using the KenPom, the only other Sun Belt school in the top 100 is Appalachian State (7-2 with a win over Auburn).

24. Wisconsin (7-3) (17) – The Badgers own three impressive double-digit wins (Virginia, Marquette, Michigan State). However, they lost by 25 to Arizona, showing the world they are not in that class. They should win their final two games in 2023.

25. Memphis (7-2) (NR) – The Tigers own wins over Texas A&M and Arkansas, with losses to Villanova (16 points) and Ole Miss (3). Ole Miss is still undefeated (their overall resume just isn’t yet worthy of my Top 25). Tough games with Clemson and Virginia await.

 

Dropped Out:

Miami (7-2) (15) – The loss to Colorado was alarming, as is their #55 ranking in the KenPom (likely due to a bad defensive ranking).

Texas A&M (7-3) (19) – The Aggies are  2-3 after a 5-0 start. Regardless, they play Houston on Saturday – win that game, and their free-fall in my rankings will turn into a surge upward.

Ohio State (8-2) (22) – The Buckeyes were cruising along until a weird loss to Penn State, though at least it was a road game.

San Diego State (8-2) (25) – I give them credit for playing Grand Canyon on the road, but they did end up losing the game. The Aztecs followed that up with an uninspiring 1-point win over UC Irvine.

Just Missed:

Northwestern (7-1) – That win over Purdue keeps them just on the cusp of entering the Top 25.

Mississippi (9-0) – The win over Memphis is impressive, but they are currently ranked 90th in the KenPom without any metric favoring an argument that they deserve a top 25 spot. Why do I list them at all? Undefeated teams from power conferences should always earn attention for as long as they stay unbeaten.

New Mexico (9-1) – The Mountain West promises to be competitive once again. The head-to-head matchups will weed out the NCAA Tournament contenders from the pretenders. For now, New Mexico should be firmly in the contenders column.

My Take: Yankees Acquire OF Juan Soto

The trade:

The Yankees acquired outfielders Juan Soto and Trent Grisham from the Padres for C Kyle Higashioka and right-handed pitchers Michael King, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, and Drew Thorpe

This is one of those blockbusters that will be talked about for as long as baseball exists. It is the second blockbuster that Soto has been involved in over the last two years. If you asked the Padres last winter if they would be dealing Soto in the winter of 2023, they would have laughed at you. This was not a part of their plan.

From the Yankees’ perspective:

They are acquiring a player who is amongst the best hitters in history through age 25. 25-year-old players aren’t supposed to have a .284/.421/.524 career triple slash through 779 games with a higher walk rate (19%) than strikeout rate (17.1%). Sometimes, the word “unicorn” is thrown out too often when it comes to a professional athlete. In the case of Soto, he is a unicorn – a hitter who can define a generation. That isn’t hyperbole.

The 2023 Yankees were stale and boring. I watch a lot of baseball and can tell you that it was a rare season where the game felt like “background noise” to everything else going on around me. With one trade, the Yankees have livened up the fanbase again.

Are there flaws with Soto? Yes. He isn’t a good defensive player and while he did steal 12 bases in 2023, his BSR was -4.3. Those flaws are probably not as significant as his contract status, as he only has one year of control. During his time in Washington, when he was far away from free agency, he turned down an offer north of $400 million to stay. There is little doubt that he is going to seek $500 million for 2025 and beyond, which would dwarf Aaron Judge‘s $360 million pact. There is no doubt that Soto will beat that, and Judge would have to live with not being the highest-paid player on the squad if Soto is retained. Is that a problem? I doubt it. Judge understands the business – his contract helped set the tone for the classes that follow him.

Soto is not a dead pull hitter who is “made” for the short porch. That doesn’t concern me. He set a new career-best with 35 home runs in 2023 and I would expect the same level of power in 2024. If you are digging around for flaws in his offensive game, you are wasting your time. Those flaws don’t exist.

As for Grisham, he is a left-handed bat known for his solid defensive work and ability to steal some bags. His bat is not his calling card, but his 13.5% BB rate (2023) was well above league average. Additionally, he can provide some pop (13 home runs) and his pull percentage is above MLB average which suggests he might be able to take advantage of the porch. His reverse split makes him an appealing option to play over Alex Verdugo against left-handed pitching. Beyond that, he will be a cheap backup option who can pinch-run and be used as a defensive replacement.  He has two more seasons of team control.

In the span of two nights, the Yankees solved one of their most pressing issues: The outfield. They went from Judge and a group of question marks (especially with Jasson Dominguez‘s injury) to a versatile strong group of four who should be well above league average. If they give Oswaldo Cabrera another chance to fill a super-utility role, he will provide additional depth. Everson Pereira didn’t hit much after his promotion and could spend time in Triple-A, ready to come up at a moment’s notice. Brandon Lockridge survived another Rule 5 and has a speed/defense profile – a profile I liken to former Yankee Tim Locastro.

If you are going to acquire a generational type of talent, you should feel some pain regardless of team control. I don’t think the Yankees were posturing with their reluctance to include King, who leaves a gaping hole in the pitching staff for the time being. I do think that the rumors that they wouldn’t include King or Thorpe were posturing as that was never going to fly. In the end, they ended up giving up both pitchers + two swingmen who figured to play roles in swallowing up some innings.

The three MLB pitchers they gave up will need to be replaced, whether that is internally or externally. Internally, expect to see a lot of Will Warren next spring as they ready him for his big league debut. Clayton Beeter was added to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft. He has an electric arm that I think is better suited for short relief, but he is stretched out to start. Yoendrys Gomez received a cup of coffee late in 2023. He is a 40-man roster guy with limited mileage, due to injuries. He reminds me of Jonathan Loaisiga as a kid with good stuff with health concerns. A move to the bullpen didn’t help Loaisiga much with the injuries, but perhaps that will help Gomez.

You will hear a lot about Chase Hampton, who can have a role late in the season. Some experts think he has more upside than Thorpe, though he did struggle in his first taste of Double-A (4.37 ERA and a K% that dropped from 40.5% in High-A to 27.4% in Double-A).  Brendan Beck missed a lot of time due to injury but is already Rule 5 eligible after the 2024 season. If healthy, he has the polish (he was a polished arm coming out of college) that can get him to the big leagues sometime in the second half of the season. Matt Sauer, lost in the Rule 5 draft to the Royals, is not guaranteed to stick and could be further depth. From the left side, they have Edgar Barclay, who was dominant in Somerset before getting lit up in Scranton, which isn’t too concerning given the offensive environment. It should be noted that all ten of his appearances after his promotion were starts. Expect some minor league signings to add extra depth.

All that is nice, but the main focus will shift to pitchers who can be difference makers immediately, with the big fish being Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a pitcher with so much intrigue that Hal Steinbrenner reportedly is willing to go over $300 million (both in 2024 team salaries and total contract for Yamamoto). If that doesn’t work out, secondary targets would include Jordan Montgomery and Frankie Montas. It is easy to forget just how good Montas can be when healthy, and the Yankees could be interested in him even if they sign Yamamoto. I am not sure if the Yankees would shift to Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga. He doesn’t “fit” as the type of player they typically target internationally (Kei Igawa was a reactionary move).

I want Yamamoto. If you are going all-in with Soto, get the 25-year-old pitcher who will cost you nothing but money. The competition will be fierce for his services.

We take for granted how good the Yankees are at building bullpens because they rarely have a bad one. That is not the norm across baseball, as other organizations have trouble figuring out the right formula. The Yankees have several arms that should be ready sometime in 2024. I do not advise going big on relief pitching. Josh Hader is a waste of their resources, no matter how good he is.

From the Padres’ perspective:

They needed to clear money quickly, and Soto’s $30M+ was a quick and simple solution to that problem. Grisham provides additional relief, but this was all about clearing the salary of a player they had no hope of keeping.

You would think that would lead to desperation and a lesser prospect package. That is not what they received here, as they were able to use the Yankees’ desperation to make a splash to extract as much talent as possible. Given the mass pitching exodus and an elbow injury to Yu Darvish, the Padres needed pitching help. They received that in droves.

The immediate headliner is King, who pitched to a 2.23 ERA in nine starts after the Yankees moved him into the rotation. While his 4-seam fastball velocity was down from his 2022 heights, King didn’t miss a beat beyond a rough June that may have just been a dead arm period for a pitcher coming off of an injury. He is a strikeout machine with impressive command and control of four pitches, all of which he deploys in any count in any situation. There are durability concerns, and 2023 was the first time King cleared 100 innings in the big leagues. He will be 29 in May and comes with two years of control. If the Padres are bad in the first several months of 2024, he may become an attractive flip candidate to help with a rebuild/retool around the stars who remain.

From a prospect perspective, the headliner is Thorpe, who is coming off of a season where he was named the Minor League Pitcher of the Year. While that award doesn’t make him the best pitching prospect in baseball, he is still well-regarded in the industry after a season where he struck out 32.4% of batters at High-A Hudson Valley – only to follow that up with a 40% rate in 30.1 innings for Somerset. While he may dazzle in spring training and force the Padres’ hand, he is likely a second-half-of-the-season rotation candidate. His calling card is a dazzling changeup that continued to be effective against advanced hitters in Double-A. Will it translate as high as MLB? Until proven otherwise, we have to assume it can.

Brito and Vasquez both made their debuts for the 2023 Yankees and figured to have roles on the 2024 squad as depth starter/middle reliever types. Now, they have a clear opportunity to be full-time starters for the Padres. Brito (who will be 26 at the start of next season) pitched to a 4.28 ERA (4.74 FIP) over 90.1 innings with a 19.4% K and 7.5% BB. As he was coming up the Yankees chain, there were concerns about whether he had a true strikeout pitch. While his fading changeup has devastating action that can lead to some swing-and-miss, it is more of a pitch that induces ground balls when he is on his game.

Vasquez (who just turned 25) tossed 37.2 MLB innings in 2023, compiling a 2.87 ERA (4.98 FIP) with a 10.8% BB and 19.9% K. Known for the spin rate on his breaking ball, there is likely more swing-and-miss to come as he gains experience. Injuries are a part of his profile, and the Yankees have treated him very carefully over the years. In 42 minor league starts between 2022 and 2023, Vasquez didn’t average five innings per start. One could look at him as a modern type of pitcher – he won’t be asked to give you a ton of innings, but you hope the innings he does provide are high-quality.

As the last piece of the deal, the Yankees relieved some of their catching logjam by including Kyle Higashioka. Higashioka is quite a story – a player the Yankees could have lost to minor league free agency years ago who instead stuck it out and is now a proud owner of a 314-game MLB career. In that career (where he was mostly the backup catcher), Higashioka has 40 home runs in 923 plate appearances, making it his clear offensive calling card. He is a classic overachiever – a non-descript 7th-round pick out of high school back in 2008 who put in a lot of work, reached his dream, and can now forever brag that he was the only position player the Padres acquired from the Yankees for Juan Soto. He will be an asset for a staff that figures to be in flux in 2024. It would be funny if the Padres brought back Gary Sanchez as their primary catcher. If reports are accurate, Sanchez has been linked to San Diego.

The Bottom Line:

The pressure to win the World Series in 2024 starts now. That’s the nature of the beast in pinstripes, and it shouldn’t be underestimated just how good Soto was during the Nationals’ 2019 championship run. The bright lights didn’t faze him and he played like the superstar that he is.

The Yankees needed offense and acquired one of the best hitters in the game to help fix that. I can’t quibble with what they gave up to acquire such a player. Could they have held firm that they wouldn’t give up both King and Thorpe? Could they have insisted that the Padres take one of Brito/Vasquez but not both? Sure. But who in their right mind would allow that to hold up a trade like this? It wouldn’t make much sense. They have options to sure up the pitching. There weren’t many options to help out the offense. Hence, this deal makes perfect sense for both organizations. One needed young pitching, the other needed a big bat. They came together and magic was made.

 

 

My Take: Yankees Acquire OF Alex Verdugo

The trade:

Yankees acquire OF Alex Verdugo from the Boston Red Sox for RHP Greg Weissert, RHP Richard Fitts, RHP Nicholas Judice

It isn’t often that the Yankees and Red Sox make a trade. While we have seen significant swaps in the past that go beyond the purchase of Babe Ruth (Don Baylor for Mike Easler, as one example), most of their deals are minor.

This trade is far from a blockbuster, but is isn’t insignificant. Brian Cashman talked about wanting two left-handed hitting outfielders, and Verdugo fits. His position doesn’t fit quite as easily, however. Defensive metrics like Verdugo as a corner outfielder – as a center fielder, however, he is below average.

The bat is a potential fit as a complementary lineup piece more than a main lineup piece. In 2019-2020, Verdugo hit a rather impressive .300/.351/476 (117 OPS+) in 598 plate appearances with 38 doubles, 18 home runs, and 59 runs batted in.  His production has fallen off a bit in his last three seasons, however, as he owns a .278/.334/.417 (103 OPS+) line over 1,850 plate appearances. The Yankees acquired an average-ish MLB corner outfielder, which is better than what they trotted out there in 2023. However, the bar should not be the 2023 Yankees outfield as many players can clear that. The true bar is Verdugo himself when you think about it. Verdugo is pretty good, but teams should strive to acquire players better than him.

Two publicized benchings by Alex Cora during the 2023 season also raises eyebrows. One suspension was due to a lack of hustle, while the other was due to arriving late at the ballpark.

As for what the Yankees gave up, Fitts is the most intriguing of the bunch. In 27 starts for Double-A Somerset, Fitts pitched to a 3.48 ERA (3.92 FIP) over 152.2 IP with a 6.8% BB and 25.9% K. The innings were the third highest in all of minor league baseball. His ceiling is probably in the neighborhood of a modern-day innings eater. His most probable outcome, however, may be as a spot starter/long reliever type. While he has impeccable control, he lacks command which makes him vulnerable to the long ball (22 in 2023). A move to the pen can lead to an uptick in velocity, which makes it easier to get around command issues. Fitts was never linked to the Soto talks as he isn’t at the level of Drew Thorpe/Chase Hampton in prospect circles. However, that doesn’t mean he is without value. He’ll probably make it to MLB in some capacity.

We have seen Weissert in MLB over the last two seasons. Thus far, he hasn’t been able to translate minor league success to MLB success, as he owns a 4.60 ERA (4.29 FIP) over 31.1 innings with a 9.6% BB and 24.4% K. Weissert’s stuff can be mesmerizing, but he has trouble controlling it. So far, despite his funkiness, he hasn’t shown any special ability to get right-handed hitters out. To be exact, right-handed batters hit him better than left-handed ones. The sample size is still on the small size.

Judice has yet to make his professional debut. Drafted in the 8th round in the 2023 draft out of Louisiana-Monroe, it should come as no surprise that he stands at 6’8″. The Yankees love to draft tall pitchers, and Judice is that. Judice will turn 23 in April, so he is on the older side for a player who has yet to make his debut. He is older than a typical “lottery ticket” but that is still the best way to describe him. If he can start pumping out 98 MPH fastballs consistently, he has a chance. That is true of approximately 328,923 pitchers across minor league baseball.

Bottom Line:

If your first thought is that the Yankees gave up little in this trade, I will ask you this: What exactly could Boston ask for in a deal for a mid-level corner outfielder in his last year of arbitration? This move is a salary dump for the Red Sox, which lowers the prospect ask.

Verdugo is a player that Yankees fans love to hate. But we need to look past that and ask ourselves if he is a good baseball player. The answer to that is Yes. Nobody can deny that Verdugo is a capable MLB player who does many things pretty well, even if he doesn’t own a plus-plus offensive tool. However, you can fairly ask how he fits with the 2024 Yankees, especially if Juan Soto is acquired. He isn’t a center fielder (he can fake it out there a few times a week, perhaps) and it is dangerous to rely on Aaron Judge to be the everyday center fielder. An acquisition of Soto gives the Yankees three corner outfielders, no true center fielder, and Giancarlo Stanton in the designated hitter spot. Jasson Dominguez (who probably profiles as a corner outfielder himself down the road) will be back sometime in 2024. However, it is foolish to think we can rely on him to be above average once he returns. It took Bryce Harper, one of the best baseball players in the league, a few months to find his power coming off of a similar injury.

The Yankees entered this offseason with glaring holes. The squad was boring as they plodded their way through an 82-80 season. Verdugo doesn’t make the roster any more exciting, but we have to be fair and admit that he is an upgrade. If they keep him (I think they will), it is only a 1-year commitment at between $9-10M. That doesn’t seem significant enough to keep the Yankees away from Soto and/or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

In the end, if this is the biggest move we are talking about when camp opens, the Yankees are in trouble. As of now, I am optimistic that won’t be the case.

College Basketball Top 25: 12/4/23

We are down to 12 unbeaten teams (half of them reside in the Big 12). It is hard to project a big conference team as the potential “last team standing” so I will look elsewhere. Here is how I rank those who are unbeaten, based solely on their potential to be the last unbeaten team:

12. Oklahoma – Their schedule to date is light – that changes with Providence, Arkansas, and North Carolina before the calendar changes to 2024.

11. Clemson – Their next two games are against fellow unbeaten squads South Carolina and TCU. Win those, and a date with Memphis awaits.

10. Cincinatti – Not that Xavier has impressed early, but a trip to their gym is never fun for the Bearcats.

9. South Carolina – I could  have ranked them 12th (given that the game against Clemson is on the road), but their schedule after that is so light that I give them a shot to reach 2024 without a loss.

8. Baylor – Their next three games are against power conference schools (Seton Hall, Michigan State, Duke). Those three teams are far from perfect, but it is going to be tough to get through it unscathed.

7. TCU – First, they need to get past Clemson. Do that, and they have a chance to enter 2024 unbeaten – once there, however, they begin their conference journey with games at Kansas, vs. Oklahoma, and vs. Houston.

6. Princeton – They beat Rutgers and squeaked past Furman. Their next two games are against Drexel (recently beat Villanova) and Saint Joseph’s (just won the first-ever Big Five Classic championship game). If they can win those games, they could be the #1 team on this list.

5. BYU – They won’t be favored this week at Utah in all likelihood. However, I rank them here because a win there gives them a big chance to enter conference play 13-0.

4. Houston – The early portion of their Big 12 schedule isn’t tough – but they have Texas A&M to get through first.

3. Colorado State – To me, it is all about St. Mary’s. If that squad wakes up, they can beat the Rams. If not, they should get to 2024 unbeaten – where New Mexico would await in their first conference game.

2. Nevada – Nobody is paying attention to the Wolf Pack, which is due to their crazy easy schedule. Can a trip to Hawai’i be their downfall? A game against Temple? Hard to say because it is hard to read this team.

1. James Madison – Old Dominion isn’t off to a good start, but James Madison has to face them on the road. The Sun Belt isn’t an easy conference, and they will run into roadblocks. Based on the current schedule, however, I still give them the best shot to be the last of the unbeaten teams.

Top 25:

1. Arizona (7-0) (2) – The Wildcats took it easy this week, knocking off Colgate by 27 in their only game. Now, life gets tougher: Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic between now and December 23rd.

2. Purdue (7-1) (1) – The Maui Tournament win >>>> road loss to Northwestern.

3. Kansas (7-1) (5) – A less-than-inspiring win over Eastern Illinois was erased by a victory over a stubborn UConn squad that had a chance to win it late. The rest of the month features five games, including three in-state contests (Kansas City, Missouri, Wichita State)

4. Houston (8-0) (6) – The KenPom ranks the Cougars as the nation’s best team, despite a schedule that is light on stiff competition. Houston has the nation’s best Adjusted Defense Efficiency and allows only 50.4 points per contest. They will finally get a test on 12/16 against in-state rival Texas A&M.

5. UConn (7-1) (3) – Their streak of double-digit non-conference wins predictably came to an end at Kansas, but they kept it close (had a chance to take the lead with few seconds left in the game). Up next, they get to play in the Jimmy V Classic against North Carolina at Madison Square Garden.

6. Marquette (6-2) (4) – Tough road loss to in-state rival Wisconsin. They can ease the pain with a win over Texas this week.

7. North Carolina (7-1) (12) – In typical North Carolina fashion, they appeared on their way to a clunker against Florida State after knocking off Tennessee. However, they overcame a 14-point deficit to knock off the Seminoles. Their next three games: UConn, Kentucky, Oklahoma.

8. Gonzaga (6-1) (9) – USC isn’t playing well, and the Bulldogs knocked them down even further with a 13-point victory. They have a few tough non-conference games left (UConn, San Diego State) before we see if anyone is up to the challenge in conference play. Given that St. Mary’s is off to a stunning 3-5 start and BYU is no longer around, methinks Gonzaga will be once again in cruise control heading into March Madness.

9. Creighton (7-1) (11) – Forgotten in the Blue Jays’ big run in the NCAA Tournament was their early-season loss to Nebraska. They certainly avenged that on Saturday, destroying the previously unbeaten Cornhuskers by 29.

10. Florida Atlantic (7-1) (14) – The Owls are certainly making up for that loss to Bryant. This week, they knocked off Liberty (unbeaten entering the game) and Charleston (not the same team that went 31-4 last year). The rest of their non-conference features games against Illinois (Tuesday) and Arizona (12/23).

11. Baylor (8-0) (15) – Their non-conference slate includes wins over three power conference squads (Auburn, Oregon State, Florida), but their 252nd-ranked non-conference SOS likely reflects how mediocre those teams are. The Bears still have games with Michigan State and Duke before conference play begins.

12. Colorado State (8-0) (18) – The Rams are piling up wins, adding Colorado and Washington to their list of victims that includes Creighton. Their last major test before conference play begins is against St. Mary’s. Yes, the Gaels are off to a slow start but who knows when something might click?

13. Texas (6-1) (19) – Texas State is hardly a team that scares anyone, but in this crazy season, you take every win you can get. With that game out of the way, they can now concentrate on Marquette in the Big East-Big 12 Battle.

14. BYU (7-0) (20) – Their game this coming Saturday at Utah may be their last roadblock in their quest to enter conference play 13-0. The KenPom loves the Cougars, as they are ranked 8th based on being strong both offensively (14th in Adjusted offense efficiency) and defensively (13th).

15. Miami (6-1) (8) – Kentucky proved to be quite the test for the Hurricanes as the Wildcats didn’t hold back in a 95-73 drubbing. Miami did bounce back to beat Notre Dame in their ACC opener.

16. Illinois (6-1) (25) – The Fighting Illini suffocated Rutgers in a 76-58 trouncing in their Big Ten opener. Their only loss remains a respectable 7-point game against Marquette. How much higher can they go? We’ll find out this week, as they play Florida Atlantic (Jimmy V Classic) and Tennessee (road).

17. Wisconsin (6-2) (NR) – Boasting a 43rd-ranked non-conference schedule, the Badgers can brag about wins over Virginia and Marquette to balance out their losses to Tennessee and Providence. This week, they travel to Michigan State (Big Ten opener) and Arizona (final non-conference test).

18. Kentucky (6-2) (13) – College basketball, defined: Destroying Miami. Losing to UNC Wilmington.

19. Texas A&M (6-2) (16) – The Aggies have scored between 73-79 points five times this season. That is their “happy” zone, as they are 5-0 in those games and 1-2 in their other matchups (including an ugly 59-47 loss to Virginia last time out)

20. Virginia (7-1) (NR) – Their ugly 65-41 loss to Wisconsin was evened out by their 59-47 win over Texas A&M. This is your prototypical Virginia squad – win with defense and just enough offense. They have a tricky 12/19 game at Memphis coming up. They shouldn’t lose before then, but how can anyone say that with much confidence?

21. Duke (5-3) (7) – Duke went on the road this week and promptly lost to two unranked teams. The Blue Devils better hope that Michigan State picks things up, or their non-conference slate won’t be filled with many quality wins. They can rectify that with a win over Baylor on 12/20 in Madison Square Garden.

22. Ohio State (7-1) (NR) – Last week’s AP poll included only Purdue and Illinois from the Big Ten. That should change this week, courtesy of Wisconsin and maybe Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a quality win over Alabama and a 7-point loss to Texas A&M.

23. James Madison (8-0) (21) – Nobody is going to earn points by beating Keystone, but the Dukes continue to pile up wins after their Michigan State triumph to start the year. Their margin for error is not high and they can probably only lose 1-2 conference games if they want at-large consideration (if they don’t win their conference tournament).

24. Clemson (7-0) (NR) – It is tough to get a read on the Tigers. They are unbeaten (good) but some of their wins leave something to be desired (77-76 over UAB, 68-65 over Davidson). That said, they have a win over Alabama and will try to add to their non-conference resume with games against South Carolina, TCU, and Memphis coming up.

25. San Diego State (7-1) (NR) – With their loss to BYU looking “better” by the day, it is time to rank the Aztecs. However, it isn’t lost on me that they needed a buzzer-beater to defeat UC-San Diego this week.

Dropped Out:

Villanova (6-3) (10) – I ranked Villanova high in my first Top 25, dropped them out after their loss to Penn, jumped them considerably after they won the Battle 4 Atlantis, and will now take them out again after their losses to Saint Joseph’s and Drexel. In the first year of the “Big 5” competition in its new format, the Wildcats went 0-3.

Tennessee (4-3) (17) – The Volunteers receive a lot of bonus points for their tough schedule. They have lost three in a row – the opponents were Purdue, Kansas, and North Carolina. The win over Wisconsin is looking better, at least and will get another shot at a quality win against Illinois this week.

Mississippi State (6-2) (22) – Losing at Georgia Tech may not be so bad (Duke did the same, after all). However, losing to Southern is more than enough to get you bounced from the rankings.

Alabama (5-2) (23) – The Crimson Tide don’t own any bad losses (Ohio State, Clemson) but they also do not own any quality wins.

Memphis (5-2) (24) – The Tigers have lost two in a row after a 5-game winning streak (Villanova, at Ole Miss).

Just Missed:

Oklahoma (7-0) – They remain on my radar but their 353rd-ranked non-conference schedule is just a tad off-putting.

Arkansas (5-3) – The Duke win is their early-season resume maker. Their upcoming game with Oklahoma is a nice test for both teams.

Northwestern (6-1) – A nice mid-tier win (Dayton) and a top-tier win (Purdue) place the Wildcats in Top 25 contention.

College Basketball Top 25: 11/27/23

Thanksgiving Week never seems to disappoint, and 2023 was no different. The Maui Invitational was one of the most loaded fields in recent history, with Purdue emerging from the pack. The Battle 4 Atlantis was a great platform for Villanova to jump from, and Florida Atlantic bounced back strongly from their loss to Bryant to take the ESPN Invitational. UConn continued its streak of double-digit non-conference victories by winning two more to take home the Empire Classic.

Once again, Purdue’s season will come down to their guard play. If this is the year that their guards are able to carry some momentum into the NCAA Tournament, watch out. However, it is tough to get past that they lost to St. Peter’s in 2022 and FDU in 2023.

“Are the tournaments over with?” No. There is one more big tournament (Diamond Head Classic, which starts on 12/21), though it doesn’t feature any currently ranked teams. The Big 5 Classic (the annual games that involve all schools in the Philadelphia area) is finishing up its preliminary games this week, with the championship on Saturday. As it stands right now, Villanova won’t be in that title game. If they beat St. Joseph’s this week, however, the three Pod 2 schools will finish 1-1. I don’t know how they will determine the winner of the pod if that happens. Pod 1 is much easier: Whoever wins the LaSalle-Temple game on Wednesday goes to the championship game.

In case you are wondering why it is called the “Big 5” when there are six schools in the field, this is the first year that Drexel is involved. It is also the first year where they will determine the winner through a championship game. In the past, it was simply best record in a round-robin format.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (6-0) (2) – Gonzaga. Tennessee. Marquette. The Boilermakers ran through a gauntlet to win the Maui and should garner every first-place vote amongst the writers and the coaches.

2. Arizona (6-0) (4) – The Wildcats closed out their November schedule with a win over Michigan State. They own non-conference wins over Duke (road) and Michigan State (neutral) and still have non-conference games remaining with Wisconsin (home), Purdue (neutral, but in Purdue’s home state), Alabama (neutral), and Florida Atlantic (neutral, but in Arizona’s home state). Those four games are consecutive and begin on December 9th.

3. UConn (6-0) (3) – Defeating Texas by ten is considered a close win by the Huskies’ current standards. A road game at Kansas awaits them on Friday night.

4. Marquette (5-1) (5) – Before losing to Purdue in the title game, the Golden Eagles dismantled Kansas by 14 in the semifinals. A well-deserved break comes to an end on Tuesday, when they take on 1-5 Southern. That’s a tune-up for the in-state rivalry game with Wisconsin on Saturday.

5. Kansas (5-1) (1) – The Jayhawks went 2-1 in Maui (one of the wins was over the host Chaminade, but we will excuse that as they beat Kentucky prior to taking a trip over the Pacific). Next is a tune-up game with Eastern Illinois before their big game against UConn.

6. Houston (7-0) (7) – There are 362 Division 1 schools this season, and Houston’s non-conference schedule is currently 257th (KenPom). They won the Charleston title with a win over Dayton and have won every game by double-digits, but their non-conference slate is mostly non-existent and doesn’t get much better (they have a true road game against Xavier and a home game against Texas A&M).

7. Duke (5-1) (8) – The Blue Devil Challenge (a round-robin event against mid-majors) went as expected. The Blue Devils take a trip to Arkansas on Wednesday in the inaugural ACC-SEC Challenge.

8. Miami (5-0) (9) – It’s been over a week since the Hurricanes defeated Kansas State to win the Bahamas Championship. Their break ends with a huge game at Kentucky on Tuesday in the ACC-SEC Challenge. As much as I like this squad, they are currently only 37th in the early season according to KenPom (yes, it is still too early to read much into that)

9. Gonzaga (4-1) (14) – The Bulldogs went 2-1 in Maui, though the way the tournament played out meant games against Purdue-Syracuse-UCLA, allowing them to avoid Kansas, Marquette, and Tennessee. Their remaining non-conference slate includes games against USC, Washington (road), UConn, and San Diego State.

10. Villanova (6-1) (NR) – The loss to Penn stands out, but they made up for that by defeating Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis to take the Battle 4 Atlantis crown. I should have stuck to my guns and kept them ranked even after the Penn loss, but I can’t take that back now. St. Joseph’s, who took Kentucky to overtime and is a local rival, is next on the slate.

11. Creighton (5-1) (6) – The Hall of Fame Classic, where the Blue Jays were heavily favored, didn’t quite go their way as Colorado State destroyed them by 21 points in the title game. Their next two games are true road games against Oklahoma State and in-state rival Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are currently unbeaten (poor schedule, however)

12. North Carolina (5-1) (12) – In one of the best games thus far this season, the Tar Heels lost by two to Villanova in the Battle 4 Atlantis before knocking off Arkansas in the third-place game.

13, Kentucky (5-1) (13) – The Wildcats lost their only difficult game (Kansas by five) to date. They averaged over 100 points per game during the round-robin Wildcat Challenge, though St. Joseph’s took them to overtime. It is hard to get a good read on them – their upcoming games against Miami and North Carolina should provide more clarity.

14. Florida Atlantic (5-1) (19) – There may have been questions about the Owls after their crazy loss to Bryant, but they put those fears to rest by winning the ESPN Events Invitational (wins over Texas A&M and Virginia Tech). Future games against Illinois and Arizona will provide a challenge, but they shouldn’t overlook their next opponent (Liberty).

15. Baylor (6-0) (17) – The NIT Season Tip-Off went the Bears’ way, as they knocked off Oregon State and Florida to take the title. Three of their six victories are over big-name schools (though none are ranked). They still have games with Michigan State and Duke remaining.

16. Texas A&M (6-1) (11) – Considered as the co-favorites to win the ESPN Events Invitational, they lost to Florida Atlantic in the semi-finals. That said, they avenged last year’s NCAA Tournament loss to Penn State and took home third place with their win over Iowa State.

17. Tennessee (4-2) (10) – A top team was destined to lose twice in Maui, and the Volunteers ended up being that team (lost to Purdue by four and Kansas by nine). It doesn’t get easier, as they close out their November with a road game against North Carolina. Their strong defensive play remains their calling card (first in adjusted defense according to KenPom)

18. Colorado State (6-0) (NR) – The Rams didn’t just beat Creighton – they suffocated Creighton. The Mountain West may be San Diego State’s to lose, but Colorado State has placed itself on the list of contenders. An in-state battle with Colorado is coming up on Wednesday.

19. Texas (5-1) (16) – The Longhorns played UConn about as tight as anyone over the last several months, but still came up short by ten. Their upcoming game against Texas State serves as a warm-up heading into their matchup against another Big East power: Marquette in the Big East-Big 12 Battle.

20. BYU (6-0) (NR) – The move to the Big 12 figures to provide the Cougars with a massive challenge. They are tuning up for that challenge in grand fashion by winning the Vegas Showdown (wins over Arizona State and North Carolina State). The rest of their non-conference slate isn’t difficult (a road game against Utah is a roadblock) and they can easily enter Big 12 play with a 13-0 record.

21. James Madison (6-0) (20) – The Cancun Challenge was a battle of mid-majors, and the Dukes took it home with wins over Southern Illinois and Fresno State (a 95-64 demolition). One never knows what will happen in conference play, but this squad at least has a shot to put together a gaudy record (the rest of their non-conference slate isn’t difficult on paper).

22. Mississippi State (6-0) (15) – Obviously, the Bulldogs did nothing wrong and they have an early-season tournament win to fall back on. That said, the schedule is mostly atrocious and other teams jumped over them. The ACC-SEC Challenge doesn’t even give them a big opponent, as they take on Georgia Tech on Tuesday.

23. Alabama (5-1) (21) – The high-flying Crimson Tide (97.8 points per game, tops in the nation) lost to Ohio State by 11 before bouncing back with an 8-point win over Oregon. As mentioned last week, their schedule is one of the toughest in the nation: Unbeaten Clemson in the ACC-SEC Challenge and games against Purdue, Creighton, and Arizona.

24. Memphis (5-1) (18) – The Tigers ran away from Michigan and earned a win over Arkansas before losing to Villanova in the title game of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Their next three games are true road games (Mississippi, VCU, Texas A&M) before a date with Clemson.

25. Illinois (5-1) (25) – Their only quality game is a respectable 7-point loss to Marquette. If they want to truly be the second dog in the Big Ten, they should start with quality performances in their next three games (Rutgers (road), Florida Atlantic, and Tennessee).

Dropped out:

Arkansas (4-3) (22) – The Razorbacks are 1-3 in their last four games (including a loss to UNC Greensboro) with their only win a 3-point triumph over Stanford. They can right the ship with a win over Duke in a home game this week.

Virginia (5-1) (23) – When the Cavaliers have an off-night, it can be ugly. That is what happened in a 65-41 loss to Wisconsin (4-2). The Badgers went on to win the Fort Myers Tip-Off. As for Virginia, Texas A&M is their opponent in the ACC-SEC Challenge.

Liberty (6-0) (24) – I think the Flames are a legit mid-major, but other teams simply surpassed them this week. If they can beat Florida Atlantic on Thursday, the Top 25 will welcome them again.

Just Missed:

Oklahoma (6-0) – The Rady Children’s Invitational was a wide-open affair and it was the Sooners that came through with wins over Iowa and USC to take the championship.

San Diego State (5-1) – Their loss to BYU looks to be more excusable now than it did then (especially since it was a road game). The Aztecs will next play Point Loma Nazarene University (Division II). The Sea Lions went 29-4 last season, winning a pair of games in the Division II Tournament.

Colorado (5-1) – The Buffaloes lost a tough overtime game to Florida State in the Sunshine Slam title game. We’ll see what they do at Colorado State this week as they try to establish themselves as the second-best team behind Arizona in the Pac-12.

Ohio State (5-1) – The Buckeyes have four straight wins after their 7-point loss to Texas A&M. That includes taking out Alabama in the Emerald Coast Classic. It is not easy to differentiate several Big Ten schools at the moment, and this squad is right in the mix.

 

College Basketball Top 25: 11/20/23

The early season has its usual collection of madness games, including Penn outclassing Villanova, Bryant knocking off Florida Atlantic, UC Irvine defeating USC,  and Greensboro taking care of business against Arkansas in this past week alone.

Do these games mean anything? In the long run, not really – though it continues to prove that parity in college basketball is getting more pronounced, not less. The games above (and others that didn’t involve Top 25 schools, such as Long Beach State – Michigan and Jackson State – Missouri) were not the type of games you saw regularly 20 years ago. What was once truly shocking is becoming more commonplace.

The early-season tournaments are in full swing, with all eyes on the ultra-competitive Maui Invitational. Barring an upset winner, it is probable that the winner will be the #1 team in the country when the dust settles. Kansas, Purdue, Marquette, Tennessee, and Gonzaga all have Final Four aspirations this season.

Top 25:

1. Kansas (3-0) (2) – A big win over Kentucky moves them ahead of Purdue in my rankings. Now it is off to Maui.

2. Purdue (3-0) (1) – A quiet week for the Boilermakers, who knocked off Xavier in a Gavitt Tipoff game (essentially, a Big Ten – Big East challenge). A very strong Maui is next – their opener is against Gonzaga.

3. UConn (4-0) (3) – The 4-team Empire Classic features squads from the Big East, Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12.  In the Opening Round, the Huskies dismantled Indiana and will now take on Texas on Monday Night for the championship. It’s only four games and the competition hasn’t been great, but UConn is continuing its momentum which started in the NCAA Tournament.

4. Arizona (5-0) (4) – A sluggish start against UT-Arlington was quickly erased as the Wildcats used a 58-19 second-half run to maul the Mavericks. Next up is a date with Michigan State on Thanksgiving in the inaugural “Acrisure Classic.” While this is a one-and-done game (multiple teams participated in the preliminaries, but it wasn’t a tournament) in the newly constructed arena, expect this Classic to become a premier tournament in the future.

5. Marquette (3-0) (5) – The Golden Eagles will start their Maui journey against UCLA. They took down Illinois by seven in last week’s Gavitt Tipoff game.

6. Creighton (4-0) (6) – As expected, Iowa – Creighton was a high-scoring affair. The Blue Jays pulled away in the second half and will now concentrate on the Hall of Fame Classic, where they are the heavy favorites in a field of four (Creighton vs Loyola Chicago, Boston College vs Colorado State).

7. Houston (6-0) (7) – The Cougars finished off their four-win week with a victory over Dayton in the Charleston Classic final. Their schedule becomes scattered for a while, as they only have one more game this month (Friday against Montana).

8. Duke (3-1) (8) – The Blue Devils had a nice bounceback win over Michigan State. The “Blue Devil Challenge” offers some mid-major schools some national TV coverage. They defeated Bucknell and have two more games (La Salle, Southern Indiana) before a date with Arkansas on the road in the inaugural ACC/SEC Challenge.

9. Miami (5-0) (13) – Perhaps looking forward to their trip to the Bahamas, Miami had to hold off a stubborn Florida International squad, 86-80, on Monday. That didn’t impact their trip at all as they defeated Georgia and Kansas State to cruise to the title. The Hurricanes will take Thanksgiving week off before a date with Kentucky next Tuesday.

10. Tennessee (3-0) (9) – It feels as if Tennessee is lost in the Maui Invitational crowd, which is indicative of the strength of the tournament more than anything. The tournament starts a stretch of tough games for the Volunteers. Immediately following the tournament, they go on the road to take on North Carolina.

11. Texas A&M (4-0) (10) – Oral Roberts played them tough, but the Aggies were able to pull off an 8-point win. The 8-team ESPN Invitational starts on Thanksgiving, where they will try to avenge their loss to Penn State from the NCAA Tournament. If they win that, a semifinal matchup against Florida Atlantic may await.

12. North Carolina (3-0) (15) – The Tar Heels haven’t challenged themselves yet, but the Battle 4 Atlantis will show them where they stand in the early going. They start their journey with Northern Iowa. Other teams in the field include Memphis, Villanova, Arkansas, and Michigan. Three of those four teams (all but Memphis) suffered losses to mid-major squads earlier this week.

13. Kentucky (3-1) (17) – Saint Joseph’s and Marshall shouldn’t provide much competition. The game I have circled is on 11/28 against Miami in the ACC/SEC Challenge.

14. Gonzaga (2-0) (19) – Business has been slow but it is about to pick up in Maui. Beyond that crazy tournament, they have dates with USC, UConn, and San Diego State before the conference season begins. How good are they? We are about to find out.

15. Mississippi State (5-0) (NR) – Maybe the Hall of Fame Tipoff wasn’t the deepest of fields, but the Bulldogs took care of business with wins over Washington State and Northwestern. That said, the rest of their non-conference schedule is lacking and they will probably move down from here as other teams play stronger competition leading into the conference schedule (it is possible that they will be 13-0 heading into conference play, though North Texas and Rutgers should provide competition)

16. Texas (4-0) (24) – Louisville provided them a massive scare and probably should have won the game. As expected, they will play in the title game against UConn. A win there and a massive jump in the rankings awaits.

17. Baylor (4-0) (25) – They haven’t played strong competition after their season-opening win over Auburn. The Bears are solid favorites to take down the NIT Tip-off, where they start off with a game against Oregon State (if they win that, they play the winner of Florida – Pittsburgh).

18. Memphis (3-0) (22) – The Jackson State win over Missouri brings down Memphis’ signature win to date. That said, the Tigers will have a chance to pile up some quality wins in the Battle 4 Atlantis (they start their journey against Michigan).

19. Florida Atlantic (2-1) (11) – Losing to Bryant certainly raises eyebrows (it was Bryant’s first win over a ranked opponent), but the Bulldogs aren’t necessarily an awful squad (they entered this season 54-29 over the last three years). It comes down to how the Owls respond to that loss. A date with Butler in the ESPN Invitational is next.

20. James Madison (4-0) (23) – Radford did their best to spoil the party, but the Dukes held on for a 76-73 victory. That was a campus game in the Cancun Challenge, a tournament that features a wide assortment of mid-major squads. James Madison plays Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley) in the first round on Tuesday.

21. Alabama (4-0) (NR) – On Friday, Mercer was the first team to hold the Crimson Tide under 100 points (98). They are a part of the Emerald Classic, where they will play Ohio State in the first round. A win there sets up a championship game against either Oregon or Santa Clara. While their schedule hasn’t been strong to date, they have upcoming games against Clemson, Purdue, Creighton, and Arizona. Wow.

22. Arkansas (3-1) (16) – Greensboro went on the road and lost to Vanderbilt by four. They followed that up with a 78-72 win over Arkansas. The Spartans won 20 games last season, losing to Arkansas by only seven in the process. Anyway, back to the Razorbacks: They can certainly make up for that loss in the coming weeks, as they are in the competitive Battle 4 Atlantis before a home game against Duke.

23. Virginia (4-0) (NR) – The Cavaliers suffocated poor Texas Southern, allowing only 33 points. They should be considered the favorites to win the Fort Myers Tip-Off, with an opening-round game against Wisconsin. That could be ugly.

24. Liberty (5-0) (NR) – The Myrtle Beach Invitational featured a group of traditionally solid mid-major teams and it was the Flames who defeated  Furman, Wichita State, and Vermont to take home the crown. All five of their wins have been by double digits. A date with Florida Atlantic awaits at the end of the month.

25. Illinois (4-1) (21) – A 7-point loss to Marquette is certainly not a bad loss, but it would have been a nice feather in their early-season cap (especially since it was a home game). The Big Ten underneath Purdue (and perhaps Michigan State if they get rolling) is going to be fun to watch. The committee loves to give the conference a lot of bids and it is hard to figure out where those bids will come from at this moment.

Dropped out:

Michigan State (12) – The Spartans mauled Bulter and Alcorn State after losing to Duke. They can jump back into the Top 25 with a win over Arizona on Thursday.
Villanova (14) – I likely overrated the Wildcats a bit last week. That said, I still expect them to have a bounce-back season.
USC (18) – A bad loss against UC Irvine followed up with an uninspiring win over Brown. I considered them the favorites to win the Rady Children’s Invitational, but the tournament (which features Seton Hall, Iowa, and Oklahoma) appears to be wide open now.
St. John’s (20) – I give them credit for their win over Utah, but it was a tough week overall for St. John’s (losses to Michigan and Dayton). The top of the Big East is strong – which team is going to be the best of the rest?

Just Missed:

San Diego State (4-1) – It was a toss-up between the Aztecs and Illinois for the 25th spot in my rankings. San Diego State completed its run to a Continental Tire Main Event with a thrilling 100-97 overtime victory over Washington.

BYU (4-0) – Moving to the Big 12 from the West Coast Conference may be a bit of a culture shock for the Cougars, who are the only team to knock off San Diego State thus far.

Colorado (3-0) – I am trying to figure out which team will present any kind of challenge to Arizona this year. The Buffaloes have the potential to be near the top of the conference, but I can say that about a handful of teams.

 

College Basketball Top 25: 11/12/2023

The 2022-2023 college basketball season ended with one of the craziest tournaments in history. For the first time ever, a 15-seed and a 16-seed both won in the first round (15th-seeded Princeton won a second-round game as well) while a #9 seed (Florida Atlantic) made a run to the Final Four, where they were eliminated on a buzzer-beater by San Diego State.

Before we get to see how the 2024 tournament will unfold, we first have to get through what promises to be a fun regular season.  James Madison owns the biggest early upset with their win over Michigan State (that isn’t the only mid-major win over a power conference school) while Arizona-Duke was a high-profile matchup that met expectations.

Speaking of high-profile matchups, if you are a true college basketball fan, you can’t possibly miss the upcoming Maui Invitational, which starts next Monday. Some of the top teams in the country (Kansas, Purdue, Tennessee, Marquette, Gonzaga) are competing in the 8-team tournament. And one should never discount Syracuse or UCLA, though both will be underdogs in this loaded field. Given the madness of March, we are often “robbed” of some intriguing matchups due to major upsets. In this tournament, you will need to survive a gauntlet to take home the trophy. I will pick my winner in next week’s entry.

My first Top 25:

1. Purdue (2-0) – The Boilermakers will try to repeat the feat of the 2019 Virginia Cavaliers, a school that lost in the 2018 tournament to #16 UMBC before bouncing back to win the title in 2019. Purdue will need to break a long streak to make it happen: The Big Ten hasn’t won a title since Michigan State in 2000.

2. Kansas (2-0) – The Jayhawks “acquired” one of the nation’s biggest transfers this year when they pried Hunter Dickinson away from Michigan. With all the chaos in last year’s tournament, it is easy to forget that Kansas was a #1 seed that lost in the second round (Arkansas). Many top schools are trying to avenge poor showings.

3. UConn (2-0) – The defending champions lost a few important pieces in their quest to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since Florida. The Huskies will get their first test this coming Sunday when they take on Indiana in the first round of the Empire Classic. A win there likely means a date with Texas in the championship.

4. Arizona (2-0) – The final year of the current Pac-12 doesn’t appear to be strong on paper. The Wildcats’ big win over Duke can be the appetizer to a big season, though they have a tough non-conference schedule to get through (Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, Florida Atlantic)

5. Marquette (2-0) – The Big East is loaded at the top, and the Golden Eagles are another team trying to bounce back from an early NCAA Tournament exit. After a tough time down in Texas, Shaka Smart seems to have found his footing in Marquette, a team that is heavy on experience coming off of their Big East title.

6. Creighton (2-0) – I told you that the Big East is top-heavy. While UConn was destroying the competition in the NCAA Tournament, the Blue Jays made an impressive run of their own. They could have easily been UConn’s opponent in the title game. Creighton will be the heavy favorite to win the upcoming Hall of Fame Classic.

7. Houston (2-0) – This week’s Charleston Classic will provide a test for the Cougars. They will be the highest-ranked team in the field (and may be the only ranked team, depending on how one feels about St. John’s). We’ll see how they get through the Big 12 grind in their first year since moving on from the AAC.

8. Duke (1-1) – The Blue Devils lost a home game to Arizona, and that knocked them down a few pegs in the early going. They are uncharacteristically not playing in one of the big early-season tournaments (they host smaller schools in the Blue Devil Challenge), but their non-conference slate includes matchups against Michigan State, Arkansas, and Baylor.

9. Tennessee (2-0) – A victim of the Florida Atlantic Express in the Sweet 16, Tennessee will once again try to ride a strong defense to a deep NCAA Tournament run. Rick Barnes’ history isn’t a great one in the NCAA Tournament, but the Volunteers have a Final Four-capable roster.

10. Texas A&M (2-0) – The Aggies challenged themselves with a road game against Ohio State last week. They left with an impressive 73-66 victory that sets themselves up for the rest of the non-conference slate. That slate includes the ESPN Events Invitational, where they take on Penn State in the opening round (11/23). The Nittany Lions knocked off this squad in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

11. Florida Atlantic (1-0) – The Owls entered the 2023 Tournament with a gaudy 31-3 record. It was reasonable to wonder just how good they were, however. They lost a non-conference game to an Ole Miss squad that would go on to finish 12-21. Their win over Florida was great for in-state bragging rights, though the Gators would go on to finish under .500. They proved their mettle on the court, however, as their high-wire act took them to the Final Four, where they lost to San Diego State on a buzzer-beater. A shift from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference should be a step up in competition, even with former top-dog Houston now in the Big 12. Another step up is their involvement in the ESPN Invitational, where they take on Butler in the opening round.

12. Michigan State (1-1) – The Spartans have the look and feel of a top-five squad, but one can’t just ignore a loss to James Madison. They have plenty of time to make up for that, however, including their big game with Duke on Tuesday.

13. Miami (2-0) – Most “big” schools aren’t feel-good stories in the NCAA Tournament. The Hurricanes, however, certainly fit the bill in 2023 as their fun style of play made a run to the Final Four for likable coach Jim Larranaga. This year’s squad has a different look, as top guards Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller are now in the NBA while four other players transferred to other schools. Incoming transfer Matthew Cleveland (Florida State) should ease some of the pain,

14. Villanova (2-0) – The sudden departure of Jay Wright left a void for the Wildcats, who had to fight just to finish the season 17-16 (before losing in the first-round in the NIT). Second-year coach Kyle Neptune hopes for a less chaotic 2023-2024 season, and we will find out soon enough just how good they may be as they are a part of the Battle 4 Atlantis field that promises to be highly competitive (North Carolina and Arkansas are in the field, along with Michigan, Texas Tech, and Memphis)

15. North Carolina (2-0) – While some teams rose from the ashes last season, the Tar Heels crashed and burned. Coming off their miracle run to the championship game in 2022, they were considered a top-five team heading into 2023. They have a lot to prove this year, and an experienced squad to do it with.

16. Arkansas (2-0) – The SEC promises to be a tough conference top-to-near-bottom and Arkansas should be right in the mix. The Razorbacks have two Elite Eight appearances and one Sweet 16 appearance in their last three seasons, and their hodgepodge roster this season is capable of another run. Four players from last year’s team declared for the NBA draft, replaced mostly with a wide variety of transfers. It’s certainly become a popular way to rebuild a roster.

17. Kentucky (2-0) – While we think of the Wildcats as a prime example of NCAA Tournament success, they haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2019 and the Final Four since 2015. Many schools would see that as a success, but that is not the case for Kentucky. While there is experience on this team if you look deep enough (ie, transfer Tre Mitchell), the reality is that they will rely a lot on freshmen in an effort to reverse their fortunes. How good are they? Let’s see how they do against Kansas on Tuesday.

18. USC (2-0) – Arizona is the overwhelming favorite to win the Pac-12, but USC may have something to say about that. The Trojans have superstar recruit Isaiah Collier leading the charge, joined by positional top-ten recruits at center (Arrinten Page) and shooting guard (Bronny James). They participate in the four-team Rady Children’s Invitational over the Thanksgiving holiday – the tournament includes Seton Hall, Iowa, and Oklahoma.

19. Gonzaga (1-0) – The engine for this squad (Drew Timme) is gone, as are nine other players from the 2023 tournament squad. They are trying to make up for that by bringing in three transfers who have double-digit scoring pedigrees. As usual, the Bulldogs have several strong games on their non-conference schedule, including their inclusion in the ultra-tough Maui. It is there where they can show us if talk of their dominance fading is overstated.

20. St. John’s (1-0) – The arrival of Rick Pitino has created a buzz around the program that hasn’t been seen in several years. Now it is time for them to prove they belong amongst the nation’s elite in his first season. You may think the expectations are unfair, but I am of the mind that Pitino craves the expectations and we should hold him to the standard he wants. Their Monday game against a down Michigan program should still present a challenge, as should their participation in the Charleston Classic.

21. Illinois (2-0) – With Purdue and Michigan State at the top of the conference, the question is: Who is willing to step up underneath them?  Maryland is a wise-guy choice, but they crashed and burned in the Asheville Championship, where they lost two games. Can Illinois be that team? The Fighting Illini haven’t made a significant NCAA Tournament run since 2005, and they are going to try to break that spell with an experienced, transfer-laden squad.

22. Memphis (2-0) – While Florida Atlantic will take on the role as the preseason AAC favorites, Memphis should be right in the mix. An astonishing 14 players from last year are no longer with the team this year. However, they once again have a strong recruiting class to mix in with a group of transfers. The Tigers defeated Missouri this past week and are a part of the Battle 4 Atlantis, where they will take on Michigan in the opening round.

23. James Madison (3-0) – Do I expect James Madison to be in the Top 25 all year? No. Do I think a road win over Michigan State warrants them a shoutout in November? Yes. After all, they followed up that win by putting up 113 points against Kent State, a perennially good team out of the MAC (they are the defending champions). The Dukes are a part of the mid-major-laden Cancun Challenge.

24. Texas (2-0) – Texas is the likely championship opponent for UConn in the Empire Classic. Rodney Terry took over for Chris Beard after the latter was fired early last season, and promptly took his team to the Elite Eight. It was their first appearance since 2008. The Longhorns lost several players from last year’s team to graduation but scored big with transfer Max Abmas, the hyper-scoring guard from Oral Roberts (20.8 points per game in his career).

25. Baylor (3-0) – The Bears haven’t been able to repeat their 2021 NCAA Tournament success, but they continue to string together solid seasons under coach Scott Drew (399-222 since being hired). They are the favorites to take down the NIT Preseason Tip-Off and feature a solid recruiting class.

 

 

 

Yankees MILB: 2023 Pitching Review

A look at the Yankees’ pitching prospects in 2023, starting with the All-Star team.

The starters:

RHP Drew Thorpe, Hudson Valley/Somerset (14-2, 2.52 ERA (3.05 FIP); 139.1 IP, 34% K, 7.1% BB, 49.2% GB; Age: 23; Rule 5 Eligible: 2025)

In a surprising twist, Thorpe makes my list of top five pitchers in the organization. The second-round pick in 2022 dominated in his first professional season, though it didn’t start that way (in his first three starts, Thorpe allowed ten runs in 15.1 IP). His changeup passed a big test when he compiled a 1.48 ERA (2.15 FIP) over 30.1 innings for Somerset. For the most part, advanced hitters will eat mediocre changeups. That didn’t happen with Thorpe, who can be an MLB option as soon as 2024.

RHP Will Warren, Somerset/Scranton (10-4, 3.35 ERA (4.19 FIP); 129 IP, 27% K, 10.7% BB, 51.7% GB; Age: 24; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)

The numbers may not jump at you, but Triple-A is a haven for offense. In his first 13 Triple-A starts, Warren posted a 5.24 ERA in 55 innings, allowing 11 homers while compiling a 22.6% K and 11.5% BB. In his final six starts, he posted a 1.61 ERA over 44.2 innings, allowing four homers while compiling a 29.8% K and 10.1% BB. When Warren has his command, expect a lot of ground balls mixed with enough strikeouts to make him enticing. If the final six starts are an indicator that something has clicked, he can be a mid-rotation level starter. If not, a swingman role could be his future – much like former Yankee Adam Warren.

RHP Richard Fitts, Somerset (11-5, 3.48 ERA (3.92 FIP); 152.2 IP, 25.9% K, 6.8% BB, 39.5% GB; Age: 23; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)

Amongst all minor league pitchers, Fitts ranked third in innings (organization-mate Mitch Spence was the leader!). I look at Fitts as a modern-day bulldog type – a kid who isn’t afraid to pound the zone with his fastball/slider combination. This feature can, at times, turn into a bug as he is prone to long balls when he doesn’t locate his pitches well. Personally, I love pitchers who pound the zone, which elevates Fitts in my eyes. I say this while realizing that his GB% may not be ideal for a right-handed starter in Yankee Stadium.

RHP Chase Hampton, Hudson Valley/Somerset (4-3, 3.63 ERA (3.38 FIP); 106.2 IP, 33.1% K, 8.4% BB, 32.5% GB; Age: 22; Rule 5 Eligible: 2026)

When you combine age, level, and stuff, Hampton is the most tantalizing pitching prospect in the organization. He throws four pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change) and shows swing-and-miss with both the curve and slider. He wasn’t quite as dominant in Somerset as he was in Hudson Valley (not surprising for a 21-year-old in his debut season), as his K% dipped from 40.5% to 27.4%. Like with Fitts, one could be concerned by the ground ball rate, but if a pitcher keeps the K% elevated, that can offset that. Plus, a pitcher can “learn” to keep balls away from the porch.

LHP Brock Selvidge, Tampa/Hudson Valley (8-5, 3.45 ERA (2.98 FIP); 127.2 IP, 25.5% K, 6.5% BB, 50.1% GB; Age: 21; Rule 5 Eligible: 2026)

If it is a left-handed prospect you wish to drool over, Selvidge should be on your list. Amongst the Yankees’ prospects with 70+ innings, Selvidge had the lowest FIP (2.98), HR/9 (0.35), and BB% (6.5%). He dropped his walk rate from the 9.4% he compiled in the Complex League in 2022. What makes Selvidge fun is that he is not fully baked – his stuff is good as is, but it can get even better as he continues to gain experience and strength. He isn’t Rule 5 eligible for a long time and we should see him in Somerset sometime in 2024 (he tossed 50.1 innings in Hudson Valley, so I suspect he will start the season there before a relatively early promotion)

The relievers:

RHP Danny Watson, Hudson Valley/Somerset (1.58 ERA (3.66 FIP); 62.2 IP, 32.7% K, 10% BB, 37.6% GB; Age: 23; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)

The Yankees have a wide selection of tall relief prospects, and Watson (6’7″) is no exception. His 1.58 ERA was the best amongst Yankees’ prospects with 50+ innings. After making High-A hitters look silly (39% K), Watson found Double-A to be a little more challenging in the strikeout/home run department. The thing with prospects is that it sometimes is better for them to struggle a bit at an advanced level rather than continue to dissect hitters in the lower levels. The Yankees’ bullpen is often strong, and it could feel daunting for a prospect to break through. He should be in the mix for MLB innings sometime in 2024.

RHP Jack Neely, Hudson Valley/Somerset (2.17 ERA (2.90 FIP); 66.1 IP, 38.6% K, 7.7% BB, 35.1% GB; Age: 23; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)

Neely (6’8″) did a nice job maintaining his K% between Hudson Valley and Somerset while cutting his BB% by more than half (full disclosure: He only tossed 17.2 innings in Somerset). He reached 100 strikeouts out of the bullpen, which is always a fun number to report. Neely’s ascension pretty much matches Watson’s, and he should also be in the bullpen mix sometime in 2024. Healthy competition is good competition.

RHP Bailey Dees, Hudson Valley/Somerset (2.60 ERA (3.37 FIP); 62.1 IP, 30.3% K, 10.6% BB, 36.1% GB; Age: 24; Rule 5 Eligible: 2024)

Dees (6’8″) is in the same boat as Watson and Neely: Big right-handed relief pitchers who you are going to be hearing about in 2024. Any of the three have “Twitter favorite” potential when a big league reliever starts to struggle. Of the three, Dees experienced the biggest dip in strikeout rate between Hudson Valley and Somerset, while his BB% spiked. I don’t concern myself too much with small sample size noise, but it is something to monitor. Hopefully, all three of these kids are invited to spring training because it would be quite a sight to see three power forwards eating some early spring innings.

RHP Luis Velasquez, Tampa/Hudson Valley (1.74 ERA (3.44 FIP); 62 IP, 30.8% K, 13.2% BB, 63.6% GB; Age: 22; Rule 5 Eligible: Eligible)

“Are all the Yankees relief prospects Paul Bunyan types?”  The answer is no, as Velasquez packs a smaller size (5’10”) and a better ground ball profile (his 63.6% rate was 4th best in all the minors amongst pitchers with 60+ innings). Velasquez was crazy good down the stretch, posting a 0.89 ERA over his final 30.1 innings While his K rate remained steady during this stretch, he was able to reduce his walk rate (10.9%). Velasquez is Rule 5 eligible and you never know if a small market team would be willing to “bury” someone of his type at the end of their bullpen. I wouldn’t be scared off by that, however – he should be left unprotected and he should pitch for Somerset in 2024.

Honorable Mention:

Starters:

RHP Clayton Beeter (Rule 5 Eligible) – Beeter is essentially the 6th starter on my list above. I remain intrigued to see what he can do if the Yankees tell him to air it out for an inning or two, but there is zero harm in keeping him in the rotation for now. He will need to be protected, as there is zero doubt that a team will grab him and (at the very least) throw him into a relief role.

RHP Justin Lange (Rule 5 Eligible: 2024) – Lange’s potential remains huge, but he still has a lot to work on. His 33.2% strikeout rate jumps out at you, as he struck out exactly ten batters three times this season.  Lange was dominant in his first High-A start (5.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K) but struggled in his final two. The potential outcomes are wide-ranging, as he remains a lottery ticket.

RHP Matt Sauer (Rule 5 Eligible) – Sauer had a late start to his 2023 season but was able to squeeze in 74 innings of 3.41 ERA ball. He struck out 30.3% of the hitters he faced. Sauer has an intriguing profile and is a former second-round pick, but how much room do the Yankees have to protect him? He can be prime trade bait before the Rule 5 protection list deadline.

RHP Yoendrys Gomez (On 40-man) – Gomez pitched well for Somerset in 19 starts (3.58 ERA in only 65.1 innings), before being called up to the big leagues to get his feet wet. Gomez has always intrigued, but injuries have held him back. The 67.1 innings between Somerset/MLB represents his career best, which shows you just how much time he has missed through the years. If he can stay healthy, the Yankees have an arm with not much mileage on it. His best role may be out of the bullpen.

RHP Brendan Beck (Rule 5 Eligible: 2024) – It is amazing that Beck’s clock is already closing in on zero as we enter 2024, making the season huge for him. Due to injuries, his debut was in 2023, where he pitched only 34 innings over ten starts. The Yankees correctly placed him in High-A (after one start in the FCL) and will probably fast-track him in 2024. Yes, there is a good chance that people on social media will drool over Beck next year.

RHP Zach Messinger (Rule 5 Eligible: 2024) – Messinger is only 2-18 in his professional career, but that is misleading to an extreme. He has seldom been asked to throw more than 4-5 innings, which limits his win potential. Messinger pitched in 21 games (only four starts) for Virginia in 2021, so the Yankees are asking him to stretch back out as a starter in the minors. With that comes a lot of growing pains, and we are seeing that. The reward can be that of a mid-rotation starter, or a multi-inning reliever if they decide to move him back later.

Relievers/Swing guys

LHP Edgar Barclay (Rule 5 Eligible) – Barclay is another victim of Triple-A insanity. He was nearly unhittable in Somerset before getting lit up in Scranton (it should be noted that all 11 of his Somerset appearances were out of the bullpen, while his 10 appearances for Scranton were all starts). Barclay has enough to be a fixture in an MLB bullpen, and I bet he is selected if left unprotected.

RHP Yorlin Calderon (Rule 5 Eligible) – For a while, it looked like Calderon was going to become a permanent bullpen fixture. The Yankees threw a bit of a curveball at us when his final five appearances (three for Tampa, two for Hudson Valley) were all starts. He is unlikely to be chosen in the Rule 5, and it will be interesting to see which role the Yankees throw him in for 2024 and beyond.

LHP Ryan Anderson (Rule 5 Eligible) – Anderson was sneaky good in 2023, compiling a 2.17 ERA (2.90 FIP) over 58 innings with a 27.9% K. His calling card is his ability to keep the ball on the ground (57.1%) and if he can keep that up, there should be a job for him in the big leagues somewhere at some point. Interestingly, his most dominant stretch was at an advanced level (1.01 ERA in 26.2 Double-A innings)

RHP Harrison Cohen (Rule 5 Eligible: 2025) – The Yankees moved Cohen through three levels in 2023, as they gave him 3.1 Double-A innings down the stretch. Cohen pitched to a 3.86 ERA during his time in Hudson Valley, striking out 29.1% of the hitters he faced. Cohen will be 25 in May, and the Yankees will likely continue to push him.

The Future:

RHP Luis Serna – Now 19, it is time for Serna to make his way to a full-season league. It is possible he would have done that in 2023, if not for an injury that limited him to eight starts (19.1 IP). Serna was 23rd on the Fangraphs’ preseason list, praised for his advanced feel for pitching for a teenager.

RHP Carlos Lagrange – Lagrange was able to toss 41.2 FCL innings in 2023, putting up impressive 32.5% K and 51.2% ground ball rates. Lagrange is an imposing 6’7″, and he has to work on his control (not uncommon for a young kid of his size. Heck, older kids of his size have issues with control)

LHP Henry Lalane – Lalane is a 6’7″ 19-year-old who showed good control in 2023, walking only four batters in 21.2 innings (34 strikeouts). If he can keep that up, there may not be a sky-high enough for him to reach. However, we shall not get carried away before any kid (especially pitchers) gets out of the Complex League.

RHP Jackson Fristoe – Fristoe throws hard, but doesn’t always know where it is going. I wasn’t sure where to put him on this list as he actually made a playoff start as high as Hudson Valley this year. He feels like a project – but one who has made it to the point of being a step away from the critical Double-A level.

RHP Sebastian Keane – The 2022 draftee was impressive in 18 FCL games (1.71 ERA with a 35/16 K/BB over 26.1 innings). A starter in college, he pitched exclusively out of the pen in the FCL. That said, his final two appearances (covering only 5.1 innings) were starts for Tampa.

RHP Eric Reyzelman – The hard-throwing 2022 draftee was only able to get into five games down in the Complex League this season. He is a fastball-heavy reliever, and the Yankees are likely working on developing a solid secondary pitch. He is 100% a relief pitcher.

The 2023 draft:

LHP Kyle Carr may be our next Brock Selvidge. Carr is likely at a more advanced spot right now than Selvidge was when he was drafted (makes sense), but Yankees fans seem to like their left-handed pitching prospects. Put Carr on your list.

RHP Nicholas Judice is, you guessed it, a huge kid (6’8″) with fast-track relief potential. The Yankees simply love these kids – they likely feel as if their size makes them undervalued to teams who may not think their control will translate to professional ball. The big kid fascination also shows up in 20th-round pick Bryce Warrecker (6’8″).

The Yankees have a track record with their mid-round pitching prospects. Any one of them (including several I have not listed) can show up next year with a 95 MPH fastball.

The bottom line:

The pitching pipeline continues to be loaded with talent. There are arms I didn’t include above that probably deserve to be included (sorry,  Sean Hermann,  Matt Keating, Cam Schlittler, Osiel Rodriguez, Mason Vinyard, etc.). However, I didn’t plan on writing a 5,000-word essay.

When the Yankees make trades, it should surprise nobody that pitchers are often involved. Other franchises covet their arms. It proves itself over and over, even if not many of them have bitten the Yankees to date (pitching prospects are so hard to project that many people will tell you that they don’t even exist).

More good news? When you look at the list above, there is a lack of Rule 5 eligible kids. None of the starters or relievers on my “first team” are Rule 5 eligible. Other than Beeter, there is no guarantee that anyone else will be protected. They will give consideration to Sauer and Barclay.

While we wait to see if the position player pipeline can sustain itself, there is zero doubt that the pitching pipeline has. The arms just keep on coming.