Yankees: A Look at the Non-Roster Invitees

A quick look at the players invited to spring training.

Quick reminder: Players on the 40-man roster will not be included in spring training invites. One doesn’t need to ask where Agustin Ramirez is, for example.

RHP Nick Burdi – The 31-year-old Burdi has 19 games of MLB experience with the Pirates and Cubs, pitching to a 9.39 ERA (3.34 FIP). His very small sample size shows an incredible strikeout rate (36%) to go along with an elevated walk (13.3%) and flyball rate (55.3%).
RHP Yerry De Los Santos – Out of the Pirates organization, the 26-year-old pitched to a 3.33 ERA (4.04 FIP) in 22 games in 2023. The Yankees will love his groundball rate (54.9%/0.37 HR/9) though he doesn’t miss many bats. He throws his 95 MPH sinker often, but I bet Matt Blake will ask him to throw it even more.
RHP Joey Gerber – An 8th round pick out of Illinois back in 2018, Gerber has dealt with various injuries and has pitched in only one organized game since making his MLB debut in 2020. The Yankees signed Gerber to a 3-year minor league deal in 2022, as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery.
RHP Chase Hampton – Likely the top pitching prospect in the system, Hampton dazzled in High-A Hudson Valley in 2023 (2.68 ERA (2.86 FIP) with a 40.5% K rate). His numbers predictably dipped for Somerset (4.37 ERA/3.80 FIP/27.4% K). He won’t make the team this spring, but a mid-season debut shouldn’t be ruled out.
RHP Dennis Santana – Santana has made MLB appearances in each of the last six seasons, most recently with the Mets in 2023. His velocity is what allows him to keep cashing paychecks, but the results are far from spectacular (5.17 career ERA/4.26 FIP). I wouldn’t be surprised if people are dazzled by him in spring training, but his best role will be as Triple-A emergency depth.
RHP Duane Underwood Jr. – Like Santana, Underwood has appeared in games from 2018-2023. Between 2021-2022, he appeared in 94 games with the Pirates, compiling a 4.36 ERA (3.68 FIP), 45.7% GB, and 21.1% K. He was a second round pick in 2012 and had some prospect pedigree once upon a time.
RHP Art Warren – Like Gerber, Warren was signed to a multi-year minor league deal as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. He appeared in 39 games for the 2022 Reds, compiling a 6.50 ERA (5.06 FIP) over 36 innings.
RHP Will Warren – The more familiar Warren should make his MLB debut in 2024, perhaps as early as Opening Day (though I wouldn’t count on that). The 8th round pick in 2021 surged down the stretch for Triple-A Scranton to finish with a 3.61 ERA over 99.2 innings with a 25.6% K and 52.7% GB. If there was ever a modern Yankees pitcher profile, that would be it.
LHP Anthony Misiewicz – Misiewicz pitched for three teams in 2023, ending his season with the Yankees. He re-signed this winter to a minor league deal and figures to provide Triple-A depth.
LHP Oddanier Mosqueda – Mosqueda (Bob Sheppard would have had a blast pronouncing his name) has yet to appear in an MLB game. A long-time Red Sox prospect, he pitched in 196 games as a member of the organization, compiling a 4.21 ERA over 331.2 IP with a 410/167 K/BB. He will be the left-handed Garrett Whitlock. OK, maybe not.
LHP Tanner Tully – Tully figures to have the same role he had last year. He made 19 starts for Scranton, compiling a 5.64 ERA over 91 innings. Every minor league system needs a veteran to eat some innings. Tully did fulfill his MLB dream when he had a cup of coffee for the 2022 Guardians.
C Josh Breaux – The power prospect has 67 homers and a .461 SLG in 315 minor league games. The rest of his game has not developed, however.
C J.C. Escarra – The 28-year-old hasn’t played an inning of affiliated ball since 2021. The long-time Orioles prospect toiled around in the Independent leagues in 2023, hitting .267/.362/.422 in 93 games.
C Ben Rice – Rice has certainly turned heads with his left-handed power swing that appears to be perfect for Yankee Stadium. His future position is the big question mark. For those who have been around for a while, there could be some Brian Daubach in his profile. Daubach didn’t break into the big leagues until he was 26. From 1999-2002 (ages 27-30), he hit .266/.342/.492 (111 OPS+) as a first baseman for the Boston Red Sox.
C Luis Torrens – Welcome back! Torrens was a hot catching prospect years ago for the Yankees, until a shoulder injury knocked him out of commission for a year. In 2016, he returned to hit .230/.348/.317 in 40 High-A games. The Yankees felt safe in not protecting him in the Rule 5, only for the Padres to gobble him up. His best MLB season was back in 2021, when he hit .243/.299/.431 (101 wRC+) with 15 home runs for the Seattle Mariners. Depending on further transactions, Torrens could be as high as the #3 catcher on the depth chart, though Ben Rortvedt and Carlos Narvaez both occupy 40-man roster spots.
INF Jeter Downs – A story made for Hollywood (or at least an afterschool special), Downs was one of the prospects sent to the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. Once a Top 100 prospect in all of baseball, Downs has not lived up to his potential and figures to only be depth for the 2024 Yankees.
IF Caleb Durbin – Acquired from the Braves for Lucas Luetge, Durbin became a bit of a prospect celebrity early in 2023 (before an injury robbed him of several weeks of playing time). His ability to make contact (6.2% K) and steal bases (36) likely appealed to old men like me who once watched a sport that was once abundant in low strikeout rates and base stealers. Not your prototypical Yankees prospect (there is not going to be power to tap into), Durbin has the ability to make it to MLB in 2024.
IF Jose Rojas – And you thought the Yankees didn’t sign KBO players! Rojas spent 2023 in Korea, where he hit .253/.345/.474 (126 wRC+) over 464 plate appearances. The 30-year-old has 83 games of MLB experience, all with the Dodgers in 2021-2022. He has experience at every position other than catcher, shortstop, and center field (the three most important ones!)
IF T.J. Rumfield – Acquired from the Phillies before the 2022 season, Rumfield experienced a power surge in 2023 for Somerset. Before 2023, he hit four home runs in 84 career games. In 2023, he hit 17 in 82 games while in Somerset. As a left-handed bat, that grabs the attention of Yankees fans.
IF Kevin Smith – If you want playing time, signing with Oakland is not a bad idea. Smith appeared in 96 games for the 2022-2023 Athletics, hitting a meager .182/.218/.314 with seven homers. He plays shortstop and third base.
IF Josh VanMeter – VanMeter has a decent MLB sample size, appearing in 300 games with three different teams between 2019-2022. In those games, he has compiled a .206/.293/.347 line with 19 homers, 79 RBI, and 17 stolen bases. Positional versatility is where he shines, though he doesn’t play shortstop or center field.
OF Greg Allen – The Yankees seemingly love Allen. He made MLB appearances for them in 2022 and 2023. The Yankees went as far as sending a prospect to the Red Sox last year to reacquire his services. Allen’s entire game revolves around speed and his ability to play CF, which is why he will continue to sign contracts.
OF Luis Gonzalez – No, not that Luis Gonzalez. This Luis Gonzalez is a 28-year-old lefthanded bat with 107 games of MLB experience (Giants, White Sox). His MLB stat line isn’t so bad for a backup: .255/.328/.363 (99 wRC+) and  he can handle all three outfield positions though you likely wouldn’t want to overexpose him in center field.
OF Oscar Gonzalez – Claimed off waivers, earlier this winter, Gonzalez was sent back through waivers by the Yankees only to be unclaimed. Gonzalez looked like a legitimate MLB outfielder in 2022, when he hit .296/.327/.461 in 91 games for the Guardians. He didn’t come close to repeating that in 2023 (49 wRC+ in 54 games!). The Yankees are hoping for some magic.
OF Spencer Jones – Jones is one of the Yankees most highly-regarded prospects – a few sites even have him ranked first overall in the system. A big kid with big potential power, Jones will need to tap into that power while continuing to reduce his strikeout rates. Simply put, there is a lot of volatility in his profile. One can see a future All-Star while others may see someone who won’t be able to put the entire package together. His 2024 season will be fascinating.
OF Brandon Lockridge – If it feels as if Lockridge has been around forever, you aren’t wrong. He has appeared in 422 minor league games for the Yankees, sporting a .263/.334/.420 line with 43 homers and 101 stolen bases. Known for his speed and ability to play center field, I think Lockridge has some Tim Locastro in his profile. If that makes you laugh, remember that Locastro has played in 290 major league games.

College Basketball Thoughts/Top 25: 2/5/24

1. Is Duke “finished”?

“Don’t ever count out Duke” is a familiar refrain when the NCAA Tournament starts. The Blue Devils are overflowed with talent but continue to underwhelm. During the game against North Carolina, you never felt that the Tar Heels were in trouble. In a series that rarely disappoints, Saturday’s game felt flat mostly because Duke never appeared to be in it.

Teams can turn it on during tournament time. UConn went 13-7 in Big East play last season, losing to Marquette in the semifinals of the tournament. In 2022, North Carolina was a #8 seed that fought their way to the title game. I would never count any talented team out, and it is easily forgotten that Duke is 11-2 in their last 13 games. That said, most of the wins (beyond Baylor) won’t go into the “impressive” bucket. The weakness of the ACC allows you to see a path where Duke has a shot at the conference title when North Carolina visits at the end of the season, but they have to play better to make that game meaningful.

2. The value of Quadrant 1

Only 103 schools have won a Quadrant 1 game this season (28.5%). Of those 103 schools, only ten have won at least five. That is why when you see teams winning multiple Quad 1 games, you take notice.

Some oddities/interesting facts:

UNLV has the same Quad 1 record (3-4) as NCAA Tournament locks/bubble teams Alabama, Iowa State, Illinois, Texas Tech, Clemson, and Providence.  However, the Rebels are 3-3 in Quadrant 4, losing to Loyola Marymount, Southern, and Air Force. Win those games, and they are 15-6 (6-3) and likely somewhere on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Gonzaga’s loss to St. Mary’s dropped their Quadrant 1 record to 0-5. Historically, their Quad 1 records: 2021 (12-1); 2022 (11-4); 2023: 8-5. They will get two more shots during the regular season: February 10th at Kentucky and March 2nd at St. Mary’s.

Only three teams in college basketball have zero Quad 1/Quad 2 games: Western Kentucky, Marist, and Little Rock. Meanwhile, there is one “big conference” school with zero wins outside of Quadrant 4: DePaul. The Blue Demons are 3-19 (3-3 in Quadrant 4).

Top 25:

1. Purdue (21-2) (1) – Will the Boilermakers own a 27-2 record heading into their final two games (Illinois, Wisconsin)?
2. UConn (20-2) (2) – You hadn’t yet received your Christmas gifts the last time the Huskies lost.
3. Tennessee (16-5) (5) – 14 of their 21 games in Quad 1/2 (9-5). 12-2 in the last 14 games.
4. North Carolina (18-4) (3) – Random loss to Georgia Tech aside, the Tar Heels are in firm control of the ACC after beating Duke.
5. Houston (19-3) (4) – Did Kansas find a weakness in the Cougars’ defense, or was it just a random game? Kansas Shot 68.9% from the field.
6. Marquette (17-5) (7) – We are still two weeks away from the first UConn – Marquette showdown.
7. Kansas (18-4) (15) –  The Jayhawks own wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, UConn, and Houston.
8. Arizona (17-5) (9) – A team this good shouldn’t have three losses in the watered-down Pac-12. Maybe they are bored?
9. Auburn (18-4) (12) – The Tigers finally earn their first Quad 1 win by knocking off Ole Miss. Five of their six remaining February games offer Quad 1 opportunities.
10. Illinois (17-5) (10) – The best way to describe Illinois this season is “holding steady.”
11. Creighton (16-6) (6) – One way to lose a conference title is by losing home games (Villanova, Butler).
12. Wisconsin (16-6) (8) – So close to beating Nebraska and Purdue this week. Both coin flips went the other way. Impressive 10-6 mark in Quad 1/2.
13. Iowa State (16-5) (14) – Losing by two at Baylor doesn’t hurt, especially when it follows up a stretch where you beat Houston and Kansas.
14. Baylor (16-5) (22) – Strong schedule + 6 Quadrant 1 wins. There will continue to be ebbs and flows in the Big 12.
15. BYU (16-5) (20) – Why do the NET and KenPom love them so much? Even when they lose, the games are close.
16. Alabama (16-6) (24) – The nation’s best offense is 10-1 in their last 11 games. Clocked a good Mississippi State team by 32.
17. Duke (16-5) (13) – The Blue Devils are only 5-5 in Quad 1/2. There seems to be something “missing” with this squad.
18. Kentucky (15-6) (11) – Their adjusted defense ranking is now 101st in the nation. That won’t cut it.
19. Florida Atlantic (18-4) (16) – The opportunities for big wins aren’t plentiful, so they need to do their best to avoid bad losses.
20. New Mexico (18-4) (17) – Their dominant 5-game winning streak came to an end at home against Boise State.
21. Saint Mary’s (18-6) (25) – Their win over Gonzaga gives them a clear path to the WCC title.
22. Dayton (18-3) (21) – Plenty of chances for resume-boosting Quad 2 wins remain.
23. South Carolina (19-3) (NR) – A 5-game winning streak that includes a home win over Kentucky and (especially) a road win over Tennessee makes them deserving.
24. San Diego State (17-5) (23) – The Aztecs have alternated wins and losses going back to January 9th.  The win over Utah State on Saturday keeps them ranked.
25. Utah State (19-3) (18) – 7-3 in Quad 1/2 games.

Dropped Out:

Texas Tech (16-5) (19) – Their non-conference SOS will continue to weigh them down when they lose games. They are 3-5 in Quad 1/2 and 13-0 elsewhere.

Just Missed:

Indiana State (20-3) – Seven straight wins. Avenged their only conference loss (Drake) on Saturday.
Texas (15-7) – 4-4 in Quadrant 1 games. After losing to Houston in overtime at home, they knocked down TCU on the road.
Colorado State (17-5)/Boise State (16-6) – In a complex Mountain West, it is Boise State (5) and Colorado State (4) who own the most Quadrant 1 wins.

NCAA Basketball 2/3: The Bubble

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/2.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [17-4 (9-1), Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 9]
Duke [16-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 4-1; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Clemson [14-6 (4-5), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 33]
Virginia [16-5 (7-3), Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 44]
Virginia Tech [13-8 (5-5), Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 49]
Wake Forest [13-7 (5-4), Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 50]

Clemson doesn’t have enough capital to survive a fall into a deep abyss, but their strong non-conference schedule (which included wins over Alabama and TCU) will be held in high regard by the committee. If they win the games they are supposed to win, they will be in…Virginia has five straight wins but none of them are going to move the needle much. Their best asset is a remaining schedule that includes Clemson, Duke, and North Carolina…Wake Forest‘s NET keeps them on the fringes of contention, as does their five wins in Quadrant 2. They will need to at least split with Duke to be taken seriously…Virginia Tech has impressive wins over Boise State and (especially) Iowa State in the non-conference. They also beat Clemson at home, which currently sits in the Quad 2 bucket.

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [17-4 (7-1), Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 28]
SMU [13-7 (5-3), Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 42]
Memphis [15-6 (4-4), Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 77]

In early February, my criteria for “In” is strict. Florida Atlantic likely has nothing to worry about, however. The win over Arizona + winning the ESPN Invitational will weigh heavily in the room. However, they can’t go into an extended in-conference slump…Thanks to a solid NET, SMU has snuck into the conversation, but they are 1-6 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games. The committee will not overlook that…Memphis has lost four straight games with NET rankings of 100+, each one worse than the last one. They recently lost to Rice, who has a ranking over 200. A once solid resume has fallen into an abyss.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [18-3 (8-1), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 18]
Richmond [16-5 (8-0), Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 68]

The Atlantic 10 isn’t necessarily strong, but it does offer decent opportunities for good wins. Dayton owns three top 40 NET victories and their loss to Richmond isn’t going to hurt them. As for Richmond, they did what they needed to do by taking care of Dayton. Their issue is that they don’t play Dayton a second time. Five of their final ten games are against teams in the current NET Top 100. It would serve them well to sweep those games. Nobody said life on the bubble is easy.

Big 12

In:
Houston [19-2 (6-2), Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 1]
BYU [15-5 (3-4), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 6]
Iowa State [16-4 (5-2); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 10]
Kansas [16-4 (5-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 13]
Baylor [14-5 (4-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Oklahoma [16-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 27]
Texas Tech [16-4 (5-2); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 29]
TCU [16-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 30]
Cincinnati [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 35]
Texas [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 39]

For now, I am leaving Kansas State and UCF off the list, but they can easily enter it with some quality future wins.  I will admit that Baylor is a borderline “in” instead of “bubble,” but a 16th-ranked NET is not going to be left out. Their margin for error is simply smaller than that of a team like Houston…Oklahoma is hurt by a bad non-conference slate and a 2-4 recent record that could be suggesting a deep dive from their red-hot start. The Big 12 will continue to offer them opportunities for improvement…Texas Tech‘s non-conference slate was abysmal and they lost to a pair of Big East schools (Butler, Villanova). That said, they recently completed a tough stretch in their Big 12 slate with a 2-2 record. The wins were over BYU and Oklahoma. The loss to Houston was ugly…Sensing a theme? Oklahoma and Texas Tech are being dinged by their non-conference. Their schedule looks like a gauntlet compared to TCU, who played one of the worst non-conference slates in the country. I think the Horned Frogs have potential as a surprise exclusion without a big finish to their season…After beating BYU on 1/6, Cincinnati is 2-5. Things are about to become very dicey as their next three games are against Texas Tech, Houston, and Iowa State…Texas had two big chances at a big non-conference win and lost both (UConn and Marquette). The Longhorns are 3-5 in their last eight games. While I recognize that the committee doesn’t put much (if any) weight in that, it does show me a trend with an unforgiving month of February.

Big East

In:
UConn [19-2 (9-1); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 14]
Creighton [16-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Saint John’s [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 38]
Butler [14-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 45]
Xavier [11-10 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 48]
Villanova [11-10 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 53]
Providence [14-7 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 55]
Seton Hall [14-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 66]

The Big East was supposed to be stronger than this. They are a solid 4th in the NET, but the middle of the league isn’t nearly as strong as I thought it would be. Who will separate from the pack? St. John’s owns one good non-conference win (Utah) and lost to Michigan, Dayton (good loss), and Boston College. Their best conference win thus far was a road victory over Villanova. There is work to do…Butler is on a 4-game winning streak and owns a win over Texas Tech in the non-conference. Their biggest conquests, however, are impressive road wins over Marquette and Creighton…One of the strongest schedules in the nation is what keeps Xavier around despite the pedestrian record. That said, they are 1-2 in Quadrant 3 and desperately need to pull off big wins in February…Villanova struggled in the Big 5 Classic (0-3), which was eye-popping given their past in those games. That said, they won the Battle 4 Atlantis by defeating Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. Will the real Wildcats please stand up?… Providence has a non-conference win over Wisconsin and a few solid Big East wins (at Seton Hall, Marquette). That’s nice and all, but their 5-7 Quad 1/Quad 2 record needs some work…Seton Hall‘s season has been up and down and is currently down. They own wins over UConn and Marquette and a crazy 3-overtime loss to Creighton. Their loss to USC in the non-conference didn’t seem like a huge deal at the time, but USC’s unexpectedly poor season is hurting their resume.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [20-2 (9-2); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 2]
Wisconsin [16-5 (8-2); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 11]
Illinois [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 12]

Bubble:
Michigan State [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 22]
Nebraska [16-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 57]
Northwestern [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 58]
Iowa [13-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 62]
Maryland [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 78]

What a difference between the top three and the middle tier. I almost crossed off Iowa and Maryland, but then my alarm bells started to go off: If not them, then who? Yes, I am saying I placed them on the bubble because someone has to be there…Michigan State doesn’t have a bad loss on their resume (9-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4) but they are struggling badly against strong competition. Their two best wins are outside the Big Ten: Baylor and Indiana State (you can laugh, but the Sycamores are 24th in the NET). Within the Big Ten? Maryland (79th)…Nebraska just scored a big home comeback victory over Wisconsin, giving them a much-needed third Quadrant 1 win. They also own wins over Purdue and Northwestern. If they do the unlikely and beat Illinois on the road, it’s going to be very hard to say “no” to them…Northwestern is the other team to knock off Purdue and their four Quadrant 1 wins place them in a good position. Their major blemish was their inexcusable home loss to Chicago State…I already spoke about Iowa and Maryland. Iowa needs some Quadrant 1 conquests to even be considered. Maryland has a few of those but is only 4-6 within Quad 1/Quad 2. Work is needed.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [19-3 (10-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 24]
Drake [17-4 (9-2); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 52]
Bradley [15-6 (8-3); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 60]

When you are a mid-major, you have to take care of any chances you get to make an impression. Indiana State‘s profile is solid, but it would look better if they could have pulled an upset over Alabama or Michigan State. Their best non-conference win is over Toledo, which clinched the Big Dawgs Classic tournament. If they put together a 26-5 regular season and lose late in the conference tournament, their resume will be a debated one…Drake defeated Indiana State and plays them again this weekend. They pulled off a solid win over Nevada in the non-conference…Bradley owns one of the conference’s biggest wins, knocking off Utah State in the non-conference to go along with Vermont, a team that traditionally dominates the America East. That said, they own both a Quad 3 and Quad 4 loss.
If the season ended today, only Indiana State would get serious consideration.

Mountain West

Bubble:
New Mexico [18-4 (6-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 19]
Utah State [19-2 (7-1); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 20]
San Diego State [16-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 23]
Colorado State [16-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 32]
Boise State [15-6 (6-2); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 43]
Nevada [17-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 56]

The wacky Mountain West should get four bids with a possibility of five. New Mexico was on a 5-game winning streak that included wins over San Diego State and Utah State before succumbing to Nevada. The best way to sum up their profile is “clean.”…Utah State only has that singular Quad 1 win but is 6-0 in Quad 2. Five of their next six games are resume-boosting opportunities…San Diego State will be bolstered in that selection room by their third-best non-conference strength of schedule. They own wins over Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. In conference play, however, they have won the games they are supposed to win while struggling in tougher games…Colorado State sent out an early warning shot when they defeated Creighton. The Rams played a tough non-conference schedule which also included a win over Colorado and a close loss to St. Mary’s…Boise State‘s four Quadrant 1 wins set them up nicely for the rest of the season. The Broncos are 7-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2. They have a road trip next week to Colorado State and Utah State…Nevada picked a bad time to start losing, as they are 1-4 in their last five games. One positive is that the win is over Colorado State. The one negative is that one of the losses was against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack defeated TCU on their road to the Diamond Head Classic title.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 31]
Utah [14-7 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 34]
Washington State [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 40]
Oregon [15-6 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 51]

The Pac-12 has been Arizona and the rest, though Oregon is currently tied at the top of the conference. Colorado‘s neutral court win over Miami has taken a hit, as the Hurricanes haven’t lived up to early-season expectations. However, their win over Richmond has gained some steam as Richmond continues to play well…Utah is another team that took advantage of St. Mary’s early season struggles, as they beat them on the road. BYU was another big early-season feather in their cap. They were swept when they took a trip through Washington last week. Now, they have a three-game home stretch that includes games against Colorado and Arizona…Washington State is in the middle of a 5-1 stretch that includes wins over Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. For now, beating Utah and Colorado at home are strong Quad 2 victories instead of Quad 1 wins…Oregon beat Georgia in Las Vegas and lost by eight to Alabama in Florida. They defeated Washington State earlier in the season and can complete a sweep next week.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [15-5 (5-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 5]
Alabama [15-6 (7-1); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 7]
Auburn [17-4 (6-2); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 8]

Bubble:
Kentucky [15-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 25]
Florida [15-6 (5-3); Quad 1: 1-6; NET: 36]
Mississippi State [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 37]
South Carolina [18-3 (6-2); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 41]
Texas A&M [12-8 (3-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 46]
Ole Miss [18-3 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 59]

Let me start with Auburn. The committee loves Quad 1 wins, and they don’t have any. The committee will also see the 8th place ranking in the NET combined with the 5th place ranking in the KenPom. It’s a situation where they don’t have that big win but they are unbeaten in every other quadrant…It would take a massive crash for Kentucky to be left out. They own a neutral-court win over North Carolina but are looking for that difference-making conference win…Like Auburn, Florida struggles in Quad 1 but has piled up wins everywhere else. They have four straight wins, including their only Quad 1 win (at Kentucky) last time out…Mississippi State won the Hall of Fame Tip-off against two solid bubble teams (Washington State, and Northwestern). Within the conference, they have defeated Tennessee and Auburn. The NET will always be impacted if you lose in Quad 4, and they did just that (Southern)…South Carolina checks a lot of boxes. The 4-2 record in Quad 1 stands out. What holds them back? A poor non-conference schedule. Eight of their 18 wins are in Quad 4, and they own a loss in Quad 3. All this said they have won four in a row – including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee (on the road)…

Texas A&M has four Quad 1 wins and played a tough non-conference schedule. The committee will love that, even if they finish 18-13 in the regular season. Their home loss to Memphis didn’t look so bad until Memphis turned into a pumpkin…Ole Miss has the combination of a gaudy record and a meh non-conference slate. They have played 14 games in Quad 3/Quad 4 (14-0) and seven games in Quad 1/Quad 2 (4-3). Their remaining schedule is tough beyond two games against Missouri.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [19-2 (8-0); Quad 1: 0-1; NET: 65]

There shouldn’t be any illusion that McNeese has a great chance to get in. Their Quad 1 loss was to Louisiana Tech, a team that will not be on the bubble. They are an impressive 3-1 in Quadrant 2, the most impressive win being a road win over VCU. So, why are their chances slim (to be kind about it)? Because their best remaining opponent is Texas A&M-Corpus Christie, a team that is ranked 202nd in the NET. It’s going to be hard to improve on their current standing, but it will be rather easy to crush their resume. One conference loss will likely do them in.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [19-3 (7-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 63]
Appalachian State [18-4 (9-1); Quad 1: 2-0; NET: 73]

James Madison was the “big hope” in the mid-major world earlier in the season. Their 14-0 start included a win at Michigan State. However, they have lost three in-conference games, putting them in a place where they may be briefly discussed with little chance to make it…Appalachian State swept James Madison already and has a mightily impressive home win over Auburn (that’s right – the Tigers played a game on a mid-majors court!). Their resume would be more impressive if they didn’t lose their first two Division I gams this season (Northern Illinois and Oregon State).

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [17-6 (8-0); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]
Gonzaga [16-5 (7-1); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 26]
San Francisco [17-6 (6-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 61]

Interestingly, other than St. Mary’s, the only other team in the conference with Quad 1 wins is Santa Clara (they have two). However, their overall resume leaves them short of the bubble…St. Mary’s started slow. After their first eight games, they were 3-5 (and one of the wins was outside of Division 1). Luckily for them, most of the losses weren’t killers, as they own the 19th-best non-conference schedule that includes wins over New Mexico and Colorado State (road). The Mountain West is a good conference to target if you want a juicy non-conference ranking, and St. Mary’s scheduled five games against the league…It isn’t normal to see Gonzaga entering February without a Quad 1 win. They have won five straight games and get a chance at their first Quad 1 win on Saturday when they welcome St. Mary’s to their gym…San Francisco has to be frustrated. Their non-conference losses include Boise State (road by 5), Grand Canyon (neutral by 4), and Utah State (neutral by 1 – but it was played in Salt Lake City). Within the conference, they lost at Gonzaga by five. They desperately needed to win a few of those games, as they are 13-0 in Quadrant 4, which won’t impress anyone.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [20-2 (10-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 47]

Grand Canyon’s in-conference loss to Seattle (12-9; NET: 123) stings. In the non-conference, they are elevated by a win over San Diego State and a close (75-68) loss to South Carolina. The Lopes are 3-1 in Quadrant 2, including a win over San Francisco on a neutral court. Luckily for them, the Seattle loss falls in this quadrant, allowing them to claim that they have a clean resume. Is there any hope for them to make it? If they go 29-2 in the regular season and make it to the conference title game, would that be enough? It is very hard to say. The first step to that isn’t necessarily easy – winning nine in a row down the stretch against conference opponents isn’t easy for anyone. However, when you play in the WAC, a gaudy record and doing something of significance in the non-conference is a prerequisite for at-large consideration.

 

 

 

 

 

 

College Basketball Thoughts/Top 25: 1/29/24

1. Are any mid-majors at-large contenders?

The answer is simplistic if you include the Mountain West as a mid-major conference: Of course, there will be at-large mid-major teams!

However, most basketball fans wouldn’t consider the Mountain West as a true mid-major. Amongst conferences that traditionally only receive one bid, you can look towards the Ivy League (Princeton) and Missouri Valley (Indiana State) as two possibilities. Early-season darling James Madison still owns a gaudy record (18-3) but has lost both of their games to in-conference rival Appalachian State (17-4, 8-1). The Mountaineers could have found themselves in the conversation if not for a loss to Troy. That said, they own a non-conference win over Auburn. Their big problem is that James Madison is the only team that gives them any kind of in-conference resume boost. Grand Canyon could become the first Division 1 school to reach 20 wins this season (the WCC school is 19-2). The Lopes have a win over San Diego State but lost a game to Seattle inside the conference.

I guess if I am going to include those teams, I should at least mention McNeese out of the Southland. The Cowboys are 18-2 and are ranked 64th in the NET. They own the longest current winning streak in the nation. However, they own four wins outside of Division I, and their wins over VCU and Michigan (both having down years) are decent Quad 2 wins instead of Quad 1 conquests.

2. The KenPom Top 20

No team in the nation currently owns a Top 10 ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. It isn’t a wild take to say that teams that rank highly in both categories tend to be dangerous when the NCAA Tournament comes around.

How many teams are in the top 20 in both categories? A handful:
Purdue (2nd ranked offense, 13th ranked defense)
Arizona (5th, 16th)
Houston (14th, 1st)
North Carolina (15th, 4th)
Tennessee (18th, 2nd)
Auburn (19th, 5th)

As dominant as UConn is showing to be, you may be surprised not to see them on the list. The Huskies are 3rd offensively and 23rd defensively.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (19-2) (1) – Toughest strength of schedule, second-best adjusted offense, survived a trip to Rutgers (they usually don’t).
2. UConn (18-2) (2) – Like Purdue, 7-2 in Quad 1 games. I find Purdue’s overall resume to be stronger.
3. North Carolina (17-3) (3) – Longest winning streak amongst power conference schools (10). Only trail McNeese (13) for the longest in Division 1.
4. Houston (18-2) (4) – The Cougars continue to suffocate opponents. The move to the Big 12 hasn’t changed that.
5. Tennessee (15-4) (5) – Are we starting to see the best-of-the-best separate from the pack? Of course, it is just as likely that the Top 5 will all lose this week.
6. Creighton (16-5) (10) – Losses to Marquette & UConn were on the road. They will get a chance at home revenge in the second half.
7. Marquette (15-5) (13) – One of my preseason favorites is playing better. Have yet to play UConn this season.
8. Wisconsin (16-4) (14) – Six Quad 1 wins and 10-4 in Quad 1/2. Only Purdue has more wins in Quad 1/2 (11).
9. Arizona (15-5) (6) – Only 7-5 since 8-0 start but their resume remains solid. Need to stop losing games in a mediocre (at best) Pac-12.
10.  Illinois (15-5) (9) – Solid-but-not-spectacular resume has only one major blemish (home loss to Maryland).
11. Kentucky (15-4) (8) – The defense, maligned most of the year, showed up against Arkansas.
12. Auburn (16-4) (7) – They are getting a few opportunities but remain winless in Quadrant 1 (0-3). The Tigers have the most Quadrant 2 wins (6) in the nation, however.
13. Duke (15-4) (12) – Quadrant 2 is their roadblock (0-3). 10-1 in their last 11 games, even if it doesn’t feel that way.
14. Iowa State (16-4) (NR) – Big jump feels deserved after adding Kansas to their conquest of Houston.
15. Kansas (16-4) (11) – Struggling in conference road games. Losing at Iowa State isn’t so bad, but Central Florida and West Virginia are bothersome.
16. Florida Atlantic (17-4) (18) – The Owls have lost one game in each of the four quadrants. The AAC is tough at the top, and I think they will emerge from the pack.
17. New Mexico (18-3) (22) – In their last five games, their average margin of victory is 20.8 (91.2 points per game)
18. Utah State (18-2) (20) – They aren’t quite as hot as New Mexico, but the Aggies remain at the top of the Mountain West.
19. Texas Tech (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back wins over ranked opponents ease some of my concerns.
20. BYU (15-5) (16) – The Cougars have split their ten Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2 games.
21. Dayton (16-3) (19) – The Flyers haven’t lost outside of Quadrant 1 (3-3). The A-10 has a load of Top 100 NET teams, but only Dayton is in the Top 50 (16th).
22. Baylor (14-5) (16) – Three straight losses to unranked teams, though all three could have gone either way. 5-5 in last ten games.
23. San Diego State (16-4) (NR) – 20th ranked schedule. Would like to see them improve on their 2-4 Quadrant 1 mark.
24. Alabama (14-6) (NR) – An insanely tough schedule and the nation’s top adjusted offense makes them a legitimate Top 25 squad at this stage.
25. Saint Mary’s (16-6) (NR) – Eight straight wins and 7-0 in the WCC. To love them means overlooking two Quadrant 3 losses (3-2 in Quadrant 1)

Dropped Out:

Oklahoma (15-5) (17) – 2-4 in their last six games and 5-5 in their last ten games. 318th non-conference schedule doesn’t help, either.
Seton Hall (13-8) (21) – That crazy three overtime loss to Creighton has manifested into a 3-game losing streak.
Colorado State (15-5) (23) – The Rams started hot but are now 3-4 in conference play. The Mountain West is not for the faint of heart.
Memphis (15-5) (24) – The Tigers have lost three in a row in a conference that is pretty good but hardly good enough to justify losing three in a row.
Princeton (15-2) (25) – If they want at-large consideration, their road loss to Cornell should be their only loss until the conference tournament.

Just Missed:

TCU (15-5) – The Horned Frogs won a 3-OT thriller at Baylor and have a win over Houston. It was a very close call.
Indiana State (18-3) – Is it time to pay attention to the Missouri Valley power? The Sycamores have zero losses outside of Quadrant 1 and boast a strong offense. Defense is a bugaboo.
South Carolina (17-3) – Are they as good as the gaudy record? We will find out as their remaining schedule is brutal (both Tennessee games, both Ole Miss games, Auburn…)

College Basketball Thoughts/Top 25: 1/22/24

1. Computers!

I love it when there is a debate over the computer rankings. I don’t agree with some of the rankings either. However, the committee has always said that computers only paint a part of the picture. I look heavily at the KenPom and NET because they do. If I am going to justify a ranking, statistical output is the best way to do it. That said, anyone can just list teams 1-25 based on the NET and call it their “ballot.”

There are so many moving parts that it seems worthless to try to make sense of everything. Gonzaga surging in the NET after wins over Pepperdine and San Diego doesn’t pass our eye test and for good reason. However, computers try to dig deeper than that. Their win over Syracuse gains value when the Orange beat Miami later in the season. As humans, most of us likely forgot that Gonzaga even played Syracuse this year, never mind trying to apply a formula that elevates that win later.

Seton Hall also falls into this trap – every time Rutgers or USC continues to lose and underachieve, it kills the Pirates because they lost to both teams. However, the committee will reward them for strong play in a strong conference.

2. Is there anything Grand Canyon/James Madison/etc. can do to enhance their resumes?

The answer is no, unfortunately. Grand Canyon losing to Seattle is a nightmare. James Madison losing two conference games may as well be a nail in the coffin. This goes back to the computer debate: These teams gain if their big upset victims play well. For Grand Canyon, that is San Diego State (and San Francisco, to an extent). For James Madison, that’s Michigan State.

I am a believer in the mid-majors, as they continue to prove through their tournament play that the best mid-majors are at least on par with the middle-of-the-pack big conference schools. In some cases, they are much better. The problem is that an at-large bid for these schools requires big non-conference wins, a strong schedule, and a gaudy record. The lack of a gaudy record, despite big non-conference wins, likely kept Monmouth (27-7 before the NIT) out of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. The committee’s mantra is to schedule tough games and win a few of them. However, you better not lose games to in-conference rivals!

3. How good is Princeton?

We may find out this week. There are three Ivy League schools in the NET Top 100: Princeton (31), Cornell (89). and Yale (96). Cornell is on a 3-game winning streak and is 4-0 at home. Yale is on a 5-game winning streak and played Gonzaga and Kansas within 15 points on the road. That may not impress you, but those are decent showings for an Ivy League squad.

Princeton’s next two games are road games against…

Cornell and Yale.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (17-2) (1) – 8-2 in road/neutral games.
2. UConn (17-2) (2) – 6-2 in Quad 1. They are behind Purdue because the Boilermakers have played only three Quad 4 games, while UConn has played eight.
3. North Carolina (15-3) (3) – Remain on cruise control. Their defense has stepped up.
4. Houston (16-2) (6) – Their two losses are by a combined five points on the road.
5. Tennessee (14-4) (7) – Doing more than enough against one of the toughest schedules in the country.
6. Arizona (14-4) (8) – The only shock is how they have lost two games in a weak Pac-12.
7. Auburn (16-2) (14) – The only thing holding them back is the lack of Quad 1 games (0-2). Their 6-0 record in Quad 2 is tied for best in the land (Memphis).
8. Kentucky (14-3) (9) – The Wildcats lead the nation in scoring (91.6) and are 4th in offensive efficiency.
9. Illinois (14-4) (13) – Rutgers is a bad offensive team but a solid defensive squad. The Illini torched them with an 86-point effort.
10. Creighton (14-5) (16) – Five road victories. Amongst power conference squads, no other team has more than three (Memphis, out of the AAC, also has five)
11. Kansas (15-3) (4) – 2-2 in last four. The two losses were to Central Florida (67th in the NET) and West Virginia (154th).
12. Duke (13-4) (5) – If you are missing players and lose to North Carolina, that is forgivable. But Pitt at home?
13. Marquette (13-5) (17) – Earned their second Quad 1 road win by defeating St. John’s. 4th toughest schedule after Purdue, Tennessee, Arizona.
14. Wisconsin (14-4) (12) – Bad loss at Penn State has the potential to drop into Quad 3. Their resume is more steady than it is overwhelming.
15. BYU (14-4) (19) – The Cougars continue to rise to the challenge of their new conference. The Iowa State win was a top-ten Quad 1 victory.
16. Baylor (14-4) (10) – A pair of road losses by a combined six points isn’t so bad. I also can’t overlook it completely.
17. Oklahoma (15-3) (23) – Earned their first road win of the season (Cincinnati), a game that also qualified as a Quad 1 victory.
18. Florida Atlantic (15-4) (20) – UTSA lost to Memphis 107-101 two weeks ago and 112-103 to Florida Atlantic last week. They aren’t good, but they are fun.
19. Dayton (15-2) (24) – 6-2 in Quadrant 1/2 (all games on the road or neutral courts).
20. Utah State (17-2) (15) – The Aggies remain unbeaten outside Quadrant 1, but are only 1-2 in Quadrant 1.
21. Seton Hall (13-6) (21) – 29th SOS, 4-4 in Quadrant 1. That was a brutal loss to Creighton – the Pirates would be in my top 15 if the coin flip went the other way.
22. New Mexico (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back Quadrant 1 wins are enough to convince me. The Mountain West is chaos.
23. Colorado State (15-3) (22) – Two wins, but a ding for needing overtime to beat Air Force at home. The non-conference destruction of Creighton carries weight.
24. Memphis (15-4) (11) – I ding somewhat even if a team loses to good squads. South Florida and Tulane? Yikes.
25. Princeton (15-1) (NR) – Correct: Zero games in Quad 1. Also correct: They are passing most of their tests beyond the 4-point loss to St. Joseph’s.

Dropped Out:

TCU (13-5) (18) – 2-3 in a tough stretch against Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, Cincinnati, Iowa State. 2-5 in Quadrant 1/2 games.
San Diego State (15-4) (25) – I will forever applaud their strength of schedule. More games in Quad 1/2 (10) than in Quad 3/4 (7).

Just Missed:

Texas Tech (15-3) – The Big 12 has helped improve their SOS. We’ll see where they are at after tough road games against TCU and Oklahoma.
Utah (14-5) – The Utes are 5-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games, including 2-2 in Top 25 Quad 1 games. Wins over Saint Mary’s and BYU bolstered their non-conference resume.
Iowa State (14-4) – Quad 1 road wins are gold, and they finally earned one. The computers have loved them all season – I still find their overall resume to be light.

College Basketball Thoughts/Top 25: 1/15/24

1. Sorting out the Mountain West

It’s too early to conclude anything about the MWC, but the chaos we expected is coming to fruition. Colorado State, who looked like the best team during non-conference play, lost to the two remaining unbeaten conference squads last week (Utah State and Boise State). Speaking of Utah State, the Aggies pushed their winning streak to 15 games with their exciting road win over UNLV. Their 15-game winning streak with Samford for tops in the country. The Bulldogs started 0-2 (including a loss to Purdue) before going on their run. Their high-tempo style (only Kennesaw State has a better Adjusted Tempo) has allowed them to score a country-leading 91.5 points per game.

Back to the Mountain West: Six of the conference’s 11 squads are ranked between 20 (Utah State) and 44 (Boise State) in the NET. Will all six make the Big Dance?  Last year, four teams made it and I would guess we’ll end up around that number again.

2. A new mid-major threat?

For years, New Mexico State ruled the Western Athletic Conference. The Aggies, who canceled their season last year, have moved on to Conference USA. It looks like Grand Canyon wants to become the new bully. Off to an impressive 16-1 start that includes a win over San Diego State, the Lopes will try to make it to their third NCAA Tournament in the last four years. In 2021, they lost to #2 seed Iowa by 12. They repeated that feat two years later, losing to #2 Gonzaga by the same margin. Under the leadership of one-time NCAA Tournament hero Bryce Drew, they are 80-28.

While I wouldn’t consider them an at-large threat, their #39 NET ranking would give them a better NCAA Tournament seed if you want to look into the deep future. For now, they need to keep winning while hanging around the fringes of the Top 25.

3. Is Gonzaga in trouble?

The Bulldogs are barely hanging on to a Top 50 ranking in the NET after their loss at Santa Clara. They are 0-4 in Quadrant 1 and have zero high-quality Quadrant 2 wins (the wins over Syracuse and USC were bottom-half Quad 2 conquests). When was the last time two other teams in the WCC had a better NET ranking than Gonzaga? That is where we are at, as red-hot St. Mary’s (five straight wins; 31st) and San Francisco (six straight wins; 41st) both rank higher.

I won’t say they are in danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament if they lose in the conference tournament, but they can’t afford too many stumbles. It is their worst position in decades.

4. The crazy week behind us

This was one of those weeks where my Top 25 will have a lot of movement. However, it was so crazy that you find yourself placing most teams in roughly the same positions.

In the big multi-bid leagues, two teams have 9-game winning streaks (Texas Tech and Auburn) though I would argue that nobody is playing better than North Carolina, owners of six consecutive double-digit wins.

Top 25

1. Purdue (15-2) (1) – Overall resume still rules the day…

2. UConn (15-2) (5) – One of the few to go unscathed last week.

3. North Carolina (13-3) (7) – Is any big conference school playing better?

4. Kansas (14-2) (2) – Nice bounceback win over Oklahoma following the UCF loss.

5. Duke (13-3) (8) – The Blue Devils have sneakily won eight in a row.

6. Houston (14-2) (3) – The computers love them and, to be fair, both losses this week were close road contests.

7. Tennessee (12-4) (4) – No bad losses, but only 2-4 in Quadrant 1.

8. Arizona (12-4) (9) – 4-3 in their last seven games, but still are second to Purdue in Quadrant 1 wins (five)

9. Kentucky (12-3) (6) – 8th ranked adjusted offense. 54th-ranked adjusted defense. That sums it up.

10. Baylor (14-2) (13) – They’ve awakened since the back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Duke.

11. Memphis (15-2) (14) – Ten straight wins is worth something nowadays. Their win over UTSA was crazy.

12. Wisconsin (13-3) (18) – Death, taxes, and the Badgers exceeding expectations.

13. Illinois (12-4) (10) – The top five was staring them in the face…then they lost to Maryland. Oy very.

14. Auburn (14-2) (25) – 0-2 in Quadrant 1, but metrically a top ten offense and defense.

15. Utah State (16-1) (19) – A fun squad will try to end their 10-game NCAA Tournament losing streak in 2024.

16. Creighton (13-4) (20) – The Blue Jays have four straight wins after a 1-3 stretch.

17. Marquette (11-5) (11) – The Golden Eagles are in a slump – can they grind their way out of it like Creighton did?

18. TCU (13-3) (NR) – Last 3 games: 2-point loss at Kansas, 9-point win over Oklahoma, 1-point win over Houston. That works.

19. BYU (13-3) (12) – San Diego State remains their signature win this season.

20. Florida Atlantic (13-4) (21) – Survived Tulane to keep their spot in the Top 25.

21. Seton Hall (12-5) (NR) – It’s a chaotic resume, but one that includes a 4-2 Quadrant 1 record.

22. Colorado State (13-3) (17) – Road games are tough in the MWC. Hard to fault losses to Utah State and Boise State but they will need to protect their home court.

23. Oklahoma (13-3) (15) – No bad losses, but only one win in Quadrant 1 (three losses).

24. Dayton (13-2) (NR) – Ten straight wins + three Quadrant 1 wins. Much the best in the A-10, but two others are also unbeaten (Richmond, Rhode Island)

25. San Diego State (14-3) (16) – Tight for the last spot but their SOS keeps them in.

Dropped Out:

Cincinnati (12-4) (22) – No shame in back-to-back losses to Texas and Baylor (especially Baylor, since it was a 3-point road loss)

Clemson (12-4) (23) – Resume is still solid (zero losses outside Quadrant 1) but only 3-4 after 9-0 start.

South Carolina (14-2) (24) – Hard to keep them in after a brutal 74-47 loss to Alabama.

Just Missed:

Princeton (13-1) – My original rankings had them leaping over San Diego State. The Tigers are 4-1 in Quadrant 2.

Grand Canyon (16-1) – It’s that time of the year when you compare a win-heavy mid-major school to bigger schools that eat each other. Tough to balance.

Texas Tech (14-2) – Dinged for a horrid schedule. TCU had a bad non-conference slate as well, but can’t ignore what they are doing in the conference. The Red Raiders have some work to do.

 

 

College Basketball Top 25: 1/8/24

Top 25

1. Purdue (14-1) (1) – Illinois has emerged as a top team in the Big Ten. Purdue beat them by five last week. They don’t play a currently ranked team for a while, but an in-state in-conference rivalry game at Indiana awaits on 1/16.

2. Kansas (13-1) (2) – As I keep saying, the computers are not in love. The KenPom ranks them as the 18th luckiest team in the country, and certainly held up against TCU on Saturday. They take on Oklahoma this coming weekend.

3. Houston (14-0) (3) – I was tempted to jump them over Kansas, but that is just semantics. For all the talk about their stellar defense, their offense ranks tenth in offensive efficiency. A tricky road trip against Iowa State and TCU is coming next.

4. Tennessee (11-3) (4) – The Volunteers extended their winning streak to seven by mauling the previously unbeaten Ole Miss squad by 26.

5. UConn (13-2) (5) – Road wins are precious inside conference play, and the Huskies needed all the offense they could muster to take care of Butler. Defense is where they can use some improvement. Offensively, they are as good as anyone.

6. Kentucky (11-2) (9) – It was a hard fought battle, but the Wildcats prevailed on the road against Florida. Underachieving Texas A&M is a part of their upcoming schedule.

7. North Carolina (11-3) (11) – The Tar Heels have played seven games in Quad 1 this season, tied for most in the NCAA. Only Purdue (6) and Arizona (5) have won more games in that quadrant.

8. Duke (11-3) (12) – The Blue Devils had to play the full 40 minutes to defeat Notre Dame. This week, they try to avenge their early-season loss to Georgia Tech.

9. Arizona (12-3) (13) – The Wildcats average 92.6 points per game, including recent slaughters of Colorado (97-50) and Utah (92-73).  A dangerous, dangerous squad.

10. Illinois (11-3) (8) – They destroyed Northwestern before hanging tough in a 6-point road loss to Purdue. Inconsistent Michigan State and down Maryland await next.

11. Marquette (11-4) (6) – The Golden Eagles remain one of my favorites to cut down the nets. Every loss is in Quadrant 1, where they also own three victories.

12. BYU (12-2) (7) – The Cougars’ first Big 12 test did not go well, as they lost a home game to Cincinnati (another new member of the conference). It doesn’t get much easier, as a trip to Baylor awaits.

13. Baylor (12-2) (15) – The Bears have followed up their losses to Michigan State and Duke with three straight wins against not-as-good competition. Their game against BYU may show us something about both schools.

14. Memphis (13-2) (17) – On one hand, the Tigers have eight straight wins and have yet to lose a game outside of Quadrant 1. On the other, their last few wins haven’t been impressive (78-75 over Tulsa and 62-59 over SMU).

15. Oklahoma (13-1) (18) – A nice win over computer darling Iowa State last week. This week? Two road games (TCU, Kansas) that will tell us more about the Sooners, who didn’t play a tough non-conference slate.

16. San Diego State (13-2) (19) – I don’t know what more they need to do to get the AP writers to put them in the Top 25. Two Quad 1 wins, zero bad losses, 14th-best non-conference schedule, etc.

17. Colorado State (13-2) (10) – This was the week of challenges for the Rams, and they ended up splitting the two games (win over New Mexico/loss to Utah State).

18. Wisconsin (11-3) (24) – The Badgers are the lone unbeaten squad (3-0) in the Big Ten. A tricky road game against Ohio State comes next.

19. Utah State (14-1) (NR) – Their win over Colorado State improved their Quad 1 record to 2-0. As expected, the Mountain West has started strong.

20. Creighton (11-4) (25) – The Blue Jays needed that win over Providence. They need to start stacking wins after a tough stretch that saw them go 1-3 with a loss to UNLV mixed in.

21. Florida Atlantic (11-4) (14) – Life as the hunted instead of the hunter can be a rough one. Their win over Arizona will forever be their biggest conquest. They cannot lose many games to teams like Charlotte (7-7) and expect to maintain a Sweet 16 seed in the Big Dance.

22. Cincinnati (12-2) (NR) – The Bearcats started their stretch of five ranked games in six games played with a win over BYU. Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas are a part of this crazy stretch.

23. Clemson (11-3) (16) – An 0-2 week (losses to Miami and North Carolina) drops the Tigers, who are entering the easier part of their conference slate. It is time to pile up the wins.

24. South Carolina (13-1) (NR) – The Gamecocks essentially take the place of Ole Miss as ranked teams who still have something to prove. Their game at Alabama this week can make things clearer.

25. Auburn (12-2) (NR) – Arkansas isn’t playing up to expectations, but Auburn beating them by 32 in a home game is eye-popping for both squads.

Dropped Out:

Colorado (11-4) (20) – Their trip through Arizona (Arizona State, Arizona) did not go well.

James Madison (14-1) (21) – They had trouble at Louisiana before losing to Southern Miss. Their margins aren’t wide, so they have to avoid losing too many in-conference games if they want any at-large consideration.

Ole Miss (13-1) (22) – I didn’t expect them to beat Tennessee on the road. I did need them to keep it close for me to keep ranking them.

Texas (11-3) (23) – When your non-conference schedule is ranked 319th, you better play well once tougher competition enters the arena.

Just Missed:

Nevada (14-1) – Seven straight wins as they attempt to join their Mountain West counterparts in the Top 25.

Princeton (13-1) – The Tigers just keep on winning…

Seton Hall (10-5) – They are putting together a nice array of Big East victories.

 

College Basketball Top 25: 1/1/24

Top 25

1. Purdue (12-1) (1) – A dominant win over Eastern Kentucky was expected, but you never know what to expect in college basketball. It’s all conference play from here on out for the Boilermakers, owners of the 18th-best non-conference schedule.

2. Kansas (12-1) (2) – The computers don’t love the Jayhawks, though they defeated Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn. A solid schedule and a top defense (4th in the nation in defensive efficiency) puts them in this position.

3. Houston (13-0) (3) – Unbeaten. Extraordinary defense. Not-so-hot schedule (9-0 in Quad 3/4 games). The Big 12 will provide plenty of tests, with a game at Iowa State (1/9) offering up such a challenge.

4. Tennessee (9-3) (5) – One more non-conference tilt (Norfolk State) before a game with unbeaten Ole Miss to begin conference play.

5. UConn (11-2) (6) – While the loss to Seton Hall may stand out, it was a Big East road game. Strange things happen in big conference road games sometimes. Their non-conference schedule is 251st in the nation, but that is mostly because they mixed a lot of strong opposition with some very weak opposition – not much in between the two extremes.

6. Marquette (11-3) (8) – Winning tough home games will be imperative in the Big East race – the Golden Eagles did that against Creighton. They take a road trip to Seton Hall this coming week.

7. BYU (12-1) (9) – Negative: 300th-ranked non-conference schedule. Positive: Top ten in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It is time to prove just how good they are as Big 12 play commences.

8. Illinois (10-2) (10) – If Michigan State can get rolling, they will factor into the Big Ten. However, for now, Purdue’s main competition appears to be Illinois. There will be a bunch of teams fighting for NCAA Tournament scraps in this league. Speaking of Purdue, Illinois takes on the Boilermakers’ nemesis (Northwestern) next.

9. Kentucky (10-2) (11) – Their resume is dinged by playing only four Quad 1/2 games (3-1) plus their Quad 3 loss to UNC-Wilmington. Plenty of difficult conference games are upcoming, though they don’t play a currently ranked AP Top 25 team until February.

10. Colorado State (12-1) (13) – The preliminaries are over. Now the Mountain West fun begins: The Rams take on New Mexico (12-1) and Utah State (12-1, road game) in their next two games.

11. North Carolina (9-3) (14) – The Tar Heels (9th in the country in offensive efficiency) play their next three conference games on the road: Pitt, Clemson, and North Carolina State.

12. Duke (9-3) (15) – Their January ACC schedule is not tough – it is their time to start stacking wins while building up the resume. The ACC is not deep, and the Blue Devils play Clemson and Miami only once apiece.

13. Arizona (10-3) (7) – Hopefully, for the Wildcats’ sake, Stanford going crazy from three was a fluke and not a sign of weakness. Even after that effort, they are in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

14. Florida Atlantic (10-3) (4) – They are 2-1 in Quadrant 1 games and 3-0 in Quadrant 2 games. However, those two Quad 4 losses (Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast) are killers.

15. Baylor (10-2) (12) – No games last week. The Bears have another non-conference warm-up (Cornell) before they travel to Oklahoma State to begin Big 12 play. Their offense is stellar – their defense is vulnerable.

16. Clemson (11-1) (17) – If you are skeptical about the Tigers, their next two games will either prove you wrong or right: at Miami and at home against North Carolina.

17. Memphis (11-2) (19) – I want to jump Memphis over Oklahoma thanks to their 25th-ranked non-conference slate. They are 7-2 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games and will be the main competition for Florida Atlantic in the AAC.

18. Oklahoma (12-1) (18) – The fact remains that the Sooners are 8-0 in Quadrant 4 games and have one of the weakest schedules in college basketball. The good thing about big conference teams is that you can’t hide forever.

19. San Diego State (11-2) (NR) – No bad losses and the 15th-ranked non-conference schedule in the nation. The win over Gonzaga iced their spot in the Top 20 for me.

20. Colorado (11-2) (20) – The two Washington schools visited Colorado last week. The games weren’t as easy as perhaps they should have been, but wins are wins. A huge game at Arizona awaits.

21. James Madison (13-0) (22) – As Michigan State tries to heat up, that only helps out the Dukes’ resume. Now comes the part of the season that is a nearly impossible situation: The Sun Belt, which is traditionally a decent mid-major league (the conference ranks 21st out of 33), has only one other team in the Top 100 in the NET (Appalachian State). Three of the teams are ranked in the 300s. They simply cannot afford to lose to those teams.

22. Ole Miss (13-0) (23) – Then you have Ole Miss. The Rebels are 10-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4 games. Unlike James Madison, however, they will have plenty of games to boost their resume. Of course, those games could also expose them. They start SEC play with a game at Tennessee. Good luck.

23. Texas (10-2) (24) – At least Ole Miss and James Madison own Quad 1 wins. Texas is 0-2 in Quad 1 games and a whopping 9-0 in Quadrant 4 games. The Longhorns need to have a strong Big 12 campaign or that will be held against them. If it isn’t, there is something wrong.

24. Wisconsin (9-3) (25) – The Badgers had the holiday week off. Their upcoming schedule isn’t daunting, though it does include a game at Ohio State.

25. Creighton (9-4) (16) – I will keep them in the Top 25 because their is better than that of a team like Providence. That said, the Blue Jays are 0-2 in the Big East while the Friars are 2-0. It is time to start winning.

Dropped Out:

Gonzaga (9-4) (21) – I don’t see the justification to keep the Zags ranked. They are 0-4 in Quadrant 1 games, and that is supposed to be their early-season bread and butter. Unless St. Mary’s wakes up, the WCC is going to likely be a breeze.

Just Missed:

New Mexico (12-1), Nevada (13-1), Utah State (12-1) – They remain in this spot for another week. The Mountain West will start sorting these teams out this week.

Providence (11-2) – I was within an eyelash of putting them in the Top 25 over Creighton.

Iowa State (11-2) – I am not extremely impressed, but every computer loves the Hawkeyes so I should give them some respect. They have played only one Quadrant 1 game (a loss) and are 8-0 in Quadrant 4.

College Basketball Top 25: 12/26/23

Top 25

1. Purdue (11-1) (1) – After a tough schedule that included wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and Arizona, the Boilermakers finally received a break in a 100-57 drubbing of Jacksonville. No team is more deserving of the top spot heading into 2024.

2. Kansas (11-1) (2) – The computers don’t love the Jayhawks (16th in the KenPom; 15th in the NET), but they still own three Quadrant 1 wins. Admittedly, they have their share of close wins against teams they should crush on paper.

3. Houston (12-0) (3) – The Cougars sit at the top of the computer rankings, and for good reason. My ding comes from a relatively mediocre schedule, though they are 4-0 in Quad 1 games.

4. Florida Atlantic (10-2) (8) – There is no other way to describe their non-conference slate as anything but a success – even with that weird loss to Bryant. After a game against Florida-Gulf Coast, the Owls begin conference play. Memphis will be their main competition on paper, but we will see how it shakes out.

5. Tennessee (9-3) (7) – The computers love the Vols, given that they have eight games in Quad 1/Quad 2 and only four games in Quad 3/Quad 4. They will play Norfolk State before starting their conference slate against Ole Miss.

6. UConn (11-2) (4) – While the Huskies continue their dominance against non-conference foes, Seton Hall proved to be a tough opponent. They did rebound with an impressive win over St. John’s, however.

7. Arizona (9-2) (5) – So, they had a stretch of games where they played Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic. In those five games, the Wildcats went 3-2.  The rest of their schedule will be all in-conference foes.

8. Marquette (10-3) (6) – The Golden Knights struggled mightily at Providence (72-57), but bounced back by slaughtering Georgetown. Before the calendar starts to 2024, a tough matchup with Creighton awaits.

9. BYU (11-1) (9) – I am simply going to point to their 1/9 game at Baylor. They may not win that game, but we must see just how “real” the Cougars are.

10. Illinois (9-2) (12) – Their non-conference is essentially a win over Florida Atlantic and losses to Tennessee and Marquette. They have a huge game with Purdue coming up (1/5), assuming they can beat 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Buster FDU and Northwestern leading into it.

11. Kentucky (9-2) (13) – Maybe the Wildcats should apply to play in the ACC, given their 3-0 record against the conference this year (Miami, North Carolina, Louisville). They have regained some trust after that loss to UNC Wilmington.

12. Baylor (10-2) (10) – Those losses to Michigan State and Duke will raise some eyebrows, as their schedule was far from strong heading into those games. I might be over-ranking them, but there is still a lot to like here – especially on the offensive side of the ball.

13. Colorado State (11-1) (14) – The Rams only have one Quad 1 game (a win over Creighton) but are also 3-1 against Quad 2 opponents. While I have identified them as the best in the Mountain West, there is a lot of season to go and the league promises to be one of the most fun leagues to follow this season.

14. North Carolina (8-3) (15) – Oklahoma is no longer unbeaten thanks to the Tar Heels, who finished 4-3 in their gauntlet of seven games (OK, including Florida State on the list is dubious).

15. Duke (8-3) (21) – Their 110th-ranked schedule included a win over Michigan State but little else until they took care of business against Baylor at Madison Square Garden. They play Queens next, a team that just lost to Clemson by 30.

16. Creighton (9-3) (11) – A tough loss to Villanova to start off their conference slate – they will try to right their ship at Marquette on 12/30.

17. Clemson (10-1) (17) – The Tigers keep their ranking, as their only game last week was a non-conference tilt against Queens. Radford (10-4, 5-game winning streak) awaits. The Highlanders lost to James Madison by only three earlier this season.

18. Oklahoma (10-1) (16) – North Carolina put an end to the Sooners’ undefeated dreams. I have never ranked Oklahoma too high due to their 275th ranked schedule, but their defense ranks in the top ten in the nation (by defensive efficiency).

19. Memphis (10-2) (20) – Vanderbilt (4-8) played the Tigers very well, losing by only two. While that isn’t impressive, Memphis has won five in a row with three wins over strong competition (Texas A&M, Clemson, Virginia). They own a 7-2 record against Quad 1/Quad 2 competition.

20. Colorado (9-2) (22) – Colorado has won four straight games by a combined 101 points, though only one of those games was high quality (Miami).

21. Gonzaga (9-3) (23) – When was the last time Gonzaga was as low as 45th in the NET? An 0-3 record in Quad 1 games will do that to you. Their upcoming game against San Diego State may not be a Quadrant 1 game, but it would be a nice feather to add to their cap.

22. James Madison (12-0) (24) – The Dukes are doing what they need to do – win, win, win. If they want any shot at an at-large berth (if they don’t win the conference tournament), they will need a gaudy record for the committee to look at.

23. Ole Miss (12-0) (NR) – The Rebels have zero Quad 1 games, but it is time to recognize their undefeated record. The tests will come soon enough, starting with a 1/6 game against Tennessee.

24. Texas (9-2) (19) – I can excuse a team like James Madison having trouble finding opponents. The Longhorns have the nation’s 318th-ranked non-conference schedule and that is not acceptable.

25. Wisconsin (9-3) (25) – The Badgers didn’t fall into the same trap as Northwestern, as they were able to take care of business against Chicago State. The rest of their schedule is in-conference games only.

Dropped Out:

Virginia (9-2) (18) – A 23-point loss to Memphis is enough to knock that out of the Top 25. Their defense is, at times, great. Their offense is, most of the time, not good at all.

Just Missed:

New Mexico (11-1), Nevada (12-1), Utah State (12-1) – A trio of 1-loss Mountain West squads. According to the NET, they are ranked 34th, 36th, and 40th, respectively.

Princeton (11-1) – Ranked 24th in the NET, the Tigers have a resume issue as they are only 0-1 in Quadrant 1. They need Rutgers to improve to turn that win into a Quad 1 conquest.

Providence (11-2) – The Friars are stacking wins, including conquests of Wisconsin and Marquette.

My Take: The Yankees Miss Out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto

In a move that shook up the Yankees fanbase, Yoshinobu Yamamoto decided to join Shohei Ohtani in Los Angeles over taking his talents to New York. While it is easy to say that they lost Yamamoto over $25 million, that statement is only true if Yamamoto was coming to the Yankees if they simply matched or beat the top offer. Nothing I am seeing suggests that is true.

While it was disappointing (and still is), the Yankees have no choice but to move on. The question is: What do they move on to?

1. They can look within:

There are three starting pitchers to watch at the beginning of 2024: Will Warren, Yoendrys Gomez, and Clayton Beeter. Later in the season, you may see Chase Hampton‘s debut.  Edgar Barclay survived the Rule 5 draft and could give the Yankees some swingman innings as well. One sleeper that is on my radar is Brendan Beck, who has only 34 professional innings to his name but came out of college as a polished arm before going down to injury. I can see him rising quickly through Somerset in 2024.

Of the sextet, Warren is your best bet to give you quality out of the rotation early. While it is smart to keep Beeter in the rotation for as long as possible (value!), his long-term projection is still a relief pitcher to me. Gomez has a starter’s arsenal without the starter’s durability. I see him as a swingman/multi-inning reliever. Hampton is at least a half-season away from being a viable option. Warren adjusted to a tough Triple-A environment down the stretch in 2023, giving you hope that he can be ready as early as Opening Day. It would require a 40-man move.

There is little doubt that the Yankees depleted their depth in the Juan Soto trade. Michael King has injury concerns but proved that he can start in MLB. Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez would have filled in innings. Drew Thorpe is surging toward his MLB debut.

However, the Yankees didn’t have the luxury to see how the Yamamoto pursuit would end before they decided on a final package for Soto. If they knew that Yamamoto was going to slip through their fingers, would they try to attempt to alter the package for Soto? Maybe but that isn’t very meaningful. The deal for Soto was a good one.

Bottom line: The Yankees have depleted upper-level pitching depth. If these pitchers don’t excite you, I understand that. Not every pitcher comes up and dominates like Spencer Strider (that is very rare), so you would be dealing with growing pains while trying to win. Because of that, Warren should be a swingman type in 2024 – some work in the minors, some work in the bullpen, some MLB starts mixed in. I am not counting on their youngsters to be significant members of the rotation.

2. A trade:

I wish people would understand that the Yankees don’t operate within a bubble of one. Dylan Cease has years of control and is cheap. His 2023 season wasn’t great (4.58 ERA/3.72 FIP), which should bring down his value somewhat. However, if a team like the Orioles is in on him (and they should be), it’s over. They can offer a package that the Yankees won’t be able to match, even if they don’t include their top-top prospects. Are the Yankees offering Hampton/Warren + Peraza + more chips for him? And even if they do, would it be enough? I am not confident.

Corbin Burnes is a one-year rental who would also be in high demand amongst many teams. A Cy Young winner from 2021, Burnes has finished in the top ten in the vote four years in a row. There were subtle signs of decline in 2023, but he still managed to lead the National League in WHIP while finishing 6th in ERA. As a one-year rental, you don’t care about Burnes for 2025 and beyond – you care about whether he can still be well above average for 2024. If he does nothing more than replicate his 2023 season, he will be worth the cost. But you will have to deplete the depth even more than it already is.

Shane Bieber is a pitcher in much debate. I think there is reason to be skeptical, given that his FIP jumped by a full run in 2023, while his K% dropped below the league average. If Cleveland wants to essentially dump him for something before he becomes a free agent, the cost shouldn’t be exuberant. Bieber should be much cheaper than Cease with no guarantee that Cease will outperform him. That is what you call an opportunity cost – though it comes with risk. That’s a major issue with many of the options: They come with risk. Gerrit Cole 2.0 is not on this market – neither as a free agent nor via trade.

The Marlins may have an arm to spare in exchange for some lineup help. The most talked about name is Edward Cabrera, and for good reason. He has trouble with control (understatement). Despite that, he owns a 108 career ERA+, which makes you dream about what he can do if he can reduce the walk rate. That is easier said than done. I don’t see the Marlins putting Jesus Luzardo or Braxton Garrett on the market.  Perhaps you can entice the Mariners for an arm like Bryce Miller, but he doesn’t excite me.

The Yankees are known for being creative with trades in the past – but we have a situation where much of their upper-level bait is gone with teams who want instant help over what is buried deep in your system. We have to accept that there may not be a match to be made for a true long-term difference-maker. Short-term? Much easier to see.

The free agents:

Just like Yamamoto, some free agents only cost money. In the case of 2-time Cy Young Winner Blake Snell, he comes with draft implications. He is the most accomplished pitcher remaining, but I don’t see the Yankees dumping $200M+ on a pitcher who has regression written all over him. His 2.25 ERA came with a 3.44 FIP and an unsustainable 86.7% left-on-base rate. Snell is very good with moments of greatness mixed in. Is he worth the contract he is demanding? Debatable, at best.

Nobody increased their value more than Jordan Montgomery. If the Cardinals approached him with something in the neighborhood of a 6-year, $80M offer after they acquired him from the Yankees, he probably signs without hesitation. Now, he is potentially worth double that. With Montgomery, you wonder if the increased usage of the sinker will sustain itself throughout several more seasons. If his numbers revert to his days in Pinstripes, that’s a fine pitcher. I am not sure if it is a pitcher worth what he is demanding. The market is what it is, though.

Frankie Montas was the Yankees’ big deadline acquisition in 2022. Since that trade was completed, we haven’t seen much of him. When healthy, he has legitimate #2 stuff. The Yankees were right to target him at the time and I wouldn’t mind a pillow contract for his services.

Shota Imanaga unfairly gets Kei Igawa comparisons because he is the secondary Japanese pitcher on the market. He is not Igawa but he comes with major concerns over his flyball tendencies, suggesting that a change in approach could be in store for a pitcher who is already 30 years old. He strikes me as a fun pitcher to watch but also one who is likely to be hit around more often than you like. I am not heavily on his train, though he would provide some innings at least.

Lucas Giolito may have Matt Blake salivating at the thought of trying to get him back on track. Leaving out the COVID season, he has tossed 29+ starts for six straight seasons, though his high water mark for innings is only 184.1. The positives include an above-average strikeout rate. The negatives include an extreme home run rate (41 allowed in 2023) that comes with a below-average ability to keep the ball on the ground. This is not typically a Yankee Stadium profile for a RHP. He is an under-30 lottery ticket.

Brandon Woodruff would be a move with 2025 in mind, while Clayton Kershaw may entice as a mid-season target if he proves he is healthy. Does anyone really see him leaving Los Angeles, though?  Don’t even think about Marcus Stroman.

Bottom line: There is an interesting group of pitchers on this list. I don’t see the Yankees handing out a big long-term deal, however. They could look at the 1-year rentals, hope for magical seasons, and look at long-term pitching options for 2025. It may not sound like a great strategy, but what is?

The bullpen:

I hate the concept of a “super bullpen,” where the Yankees sign Josh Hader and Jordan Hicks and try to beat you for 5-6 innings so they can hand the game over to an embarrassingly rich lineup of arms. It is not a strategy that typically lives up to your expectations. Furthermore, the Yankees are so good at bullpen development that I am not sure if I want to spend resources there. Signing a pitcher like Hicks, Yariel Rodriguez, or Robert Stephenson would likely be a smart move. But the Yankees cannot and should not blow the budget on bullpen arms.

Bottom line: Going crazy on free-agent bullpen arms is something teams who struggle with bullpen construction do. The Yankees have proven that bullpen construction is a strength. Look into signing someone, but don’t make it a top priority.

The offense:

“Hey, the pitching options aren’t all that exciting – maybe we should just go all-in with offense!”

I am not going to spend much time on this one. The Yankees could call Matt Chapman, who isn’t exactly an offensive superstar. They could try to fit a square peg into a round hole with Cody Bellinger while moving Alex Verdugo to a backup role. Unless they have information that Anthony Rizzo is not healing well or whatever, it doesn’t feel like a smart usage of resources. They will go with what they have while hoping for improvement from Anthony Volpe and above-average catching production from Austin Wells, assuming he makes the team as a sidekick to Jose Trevino.

Bottom line: Building the strongest possible offense is desirable but it has to make sense. I haven’t seen anything that indicates that the Yankees have any interest in Bellinger, and it should probably stay that way.

The bottom line:

If you wonder why my optimism is low at the moment, this list should explain it to you. Yamamoto did not come with a guarantee of greatness, but he did come with that ceiling (in my mind, his floor is still a good MLB pitcher). Of the pitchers above, Burnes still owns that ceiling with Cease below that threshold unless he finds some consistency. Since they are not going to have an interest in Snell, the free agents are mostly underwhelming. Signing Montgomery gives you that boring middle-tier starter that everyone needs, but how much is the needle moving for the cost? At least he knows and understands the New York market. I am not sure if that is a good thing.

I have been consistent from the start; Yamamoto was the play. However, one has to conclude that New York wasn’t as appealing as he let on. It was certainly appealing from a negotiation standpoint. All agents dream of having the Yankees involved publicly with their free agents. It’s a gold mine for their clients.

People need to stop with their “the Yankees are simply not as desirable as they once were!” stuff. There is no basis for reality in that statement.

The Yankees pivot here isn’t easy to figure out. That frustrates me as I want to be able to say that Bieber/Giolito would be a sneaky, under-the-radar way to improve the team at a relatively low cost. I am having trouble stating that with conviction, though. The risks are high if your plan is a World Series run. That is a common theme this offseason: Pitchers who come with risk. You have to try to find the pitchers who defy that risk. Good luck.

Don’t focus on the next big things from Japan. As we are seeing, the East Coast is at a disadvantage for top players who appeal to West Coast squads. If Roki Sasaki is posted before age 25, every team in baseball will have the ability to sign him for peanuts. If he isn’t posted before 25, you have to wait several years just to have the opportunity to throw your vault at him. It’s not worth worrying about.

The Yankees have no choice. We can’t harp on Yamamoto forever, so we have to move on. I can guarantee you that no move is going to satisfy the majority of the fanbase. That guy is not there to acquire. That isn’t doom and gloom – it’s reality.

2024 is not a dead season because Yamamoto is in Los Angeles. That’s silly talk. However, it will take some creativity and a bounceback from Carlos Rodon for one to be comfortable with the 2024 rotation.I don’t think Rodon suddenly forgot how to be an ace-level pitcher but he has to prove it. His performance in 2023 was dreadful and a repeat of that would be devastating.

This wasn’t a blog post designed to sugarcoat or try to convince you that plans B/C/D are just as good as the potential star. You will need some luck for that to happen.

This is not the clean and easy offseason the Yankees brass likely wanted, but it is still an offseason with opportunities for roster improvement beyond the big fish they have already reeled in. That is the focus now.

Personally (and my thought process keeps evolving), I may lean towards the rental route. That can still get you to where you want to be while allowing you to reassess after the season for long-term goals. Don’t sign a pitcher to a long-term deal just because you can.