A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Wednesday, March 6th.
The bubble comes down to four things, if you want to simplify your life:
- Win some Quad 1 games;
- Don’t lose Quad 3/4 games;
- Beat a few good opponents on the road/neutral court;
- Play a respectable non-conference schedule.
If you are on the bubble, you don’t want the committee to look at your schedule and ding you. If you play in a major conference, there is zero excuse to play a poor non-conference schedule. The committee isn’t impressed by TCU going 11-2 in the non-conference when the only two good teams they played (Clemson, and Nevada) beat them. The committee will be happy to see that they have zero bad losses, but the Horned Frogs are giving the committee a reason to, at the very least, deflate their seeding.
You don’t need to dominate in Quad 1. Not every team is Houston, UConn, Purdue, etc. The committee is fine with something like 5-9 in Quad 1. You just have to win some games to impress. This is where a school like Wake Forest (2-6) loses ground.
Teams don’t need to be perfect in Quad 3/4, but they can’t afford many losses. This is where UNLV is having trouble boosting its resume. The Rebels are an impressive 5-3 in Quad 1, but are 7-3 in Quad 4. Losing three games in the worst quadrant is hard to overcome.
Finally, the NCAA Tournament isn’t played on a home court so the committee wants you to prove that you can win outside your friendly confines. South Carolina being the only team to defeat Tennessee on the Volunteers’ home court is going to be weighed significantly in their favor. It makes sense.
ACC
In:
Duke [24-6 (15-4), Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 9]
North Carolina [24-6 (16-3), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Clemson [21-9 (11-8); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 24]
Bubble:
Wake Forest [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 42]
Pittsburgh [20-10 (11-8); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 44]
Virginia [21-9 (12-7); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 50]
Virginia Tech [17-13 (9-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 54]
The nightmare is real: The ACC can be looking at only three bids this season. The fact that Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, and Virginia are 6-18 combined in Quadrant 1 is not instilling confidence.
Virginia can point to zero bad losses to enhance their resume. Furthermore, they have a neutral-court win over Florida and home win over struggling Texas A&M. Their win over Clemson stands out as a true road win.
I included Virginia Tech in this update because they have that extra Quad 1 win + they played a tough non-conference schedule, with wins over Iowa State and Boise State (plus a two-point neutral court loss to South Carolina). However, they are 2-9 on the road, beating only Louisville and North Carolina State. The latter is at least a decent road win.
Pittsburgh has seven road wins, including a huge one over Duke. The Panthers are 8-2 in their last ten games, so at least they are trying to stay relevant.
Bottom line? The four bubble teams need runs in the ACC Tournament. One of them likely will make that run and give the ACC a legitimate chance at a 4th bid. Your guess is as good as mine as to which team that will be.
American Athletic
Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [23-7 (13-4); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 34]
SMU [19-10 (11-6); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 55]
Memphis [22-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 70]
South Florida [23-5 (16-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 74]
South Florida has won 15 straight games but is no closer to an at-large bid than they were a week ago. At one point, their NET was three digits, so a lot of credit to them to put themselves in this position. However, they are going to likely need to win the conference tournament to get their bid. They can point to Quad 4 losses to Central Michigan and Maine as the source of their misery.
The only team with a legitimate claim to an at-large remains Florida Atlantic. The Owls have that super win over Arizona + their neutral court win over Texas A&M has been upgraded to Quad 1. Five of their Quad 2 wins are in “Quad 2A,” including wins over Virginia Tech and Butler. The only reason why they aren’t locked in is two incredibly weird losses to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast.
For the most part, you can forget about SMU (zero Quad 1 wins) and Memphis (their late surge is likely not enough, though they can complete a sweep of Florida Atlantic on Saturday).
This is one league that bubble teams should watch in the next two weeks. If I am correct that Florida Atlantic is close to being locked in, there is a solid chance at some other team will win the tournament and steal a second bid.
Atlantic 10
Bubble:
Dayton [23-6 (13-4), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]
Just like the American, the Atlantic 10 has bid-stealing possibilities. Dayton being just outside the Top 20 NET makes them as close to a lock as a mid-major can be. VCU is a tough upcoming matchup, so they won’t want to lose that game.
Richmond is 23-7 (15-2) and has won six in a row while Loyola Chicago is 21-8 (14-3) and winners of nine of their last ten. With teams like these and VCU, UMass, Saint Bonaventure, Duquesne, George Mason, and St. Joseph‘s, the odds that a team will steal a second bid from this league are high. The good news for bubble teams is that none of these squads are strong enough to give this league three bids.
Big 12
In:
Houston [27-3 (14-3), Quad 1: 12-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [24-6 (13-4); Quad 1: 7-5; NET: 8]
BYU [21-9 (9-8), Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 12]
Baylor [21-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 8-6; NET: 13]
Kansas [22-8 (10-7); Quad 1: 7-6; NET: 15]
Texas [19-11 (8-9); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 28]
Bubble
Texas Tech [21-9 (10-7); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 37]
TCU [20-10 (9-8); Quad 1: 2-10; NET: 38]
Oklahoma [20-10 (8-9); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 41]
Cincinnati [17-13 (6-11); Quad 1: 3-10; NET: 45]
Texas is the 6th Big 12 squad to lock themselves into the tournament. My only trepidation is their non-conference slate which includes losses to UConn and Marquette. However, they have (mostly) won the games they were supposed to win while winning just enough tough games to separate themselves from other teams. It’s not a perfect resume – it’s a “good enough” resume.
Texas Tech has zero bad losses but defeated nobody of consequence in the non-conference. If the Red Raiders can beat Baylor on Saturday, that might be enough to promote them into a lock position.
TCU’s problem is their schedule. I have stated it all season – if you play nobody, you deserve to get dinged. Their supporters will point to their zero losses outside of Quadrant 1. When I look at teams I project to make the NCAA Tournament, TCU has defeated none of them since their January 30th win over Texas. I expect them to get a bid, but I don’t think it’s going to come without a sweat (or a long run in the Big 12 Tournament).
Oklahoma has similar issues, but the Sooners can at least point to decent non-conference wins over Iowa, Providence, and Arkansas. The Sooners haven’t won a game over a projected NCAA Tournament team since defeating BYU on February 6th. They pretty much only lose to good teams, but I would love to see more wins against good teams.
Cincinnati’s NET keeps them around, but just barely. In a tough league like this one, a good team will get lost in the shuffle. This season, that team is probably Cincinnati, a team that is only 6-11 since the calendar turned to 2024 (yes, their entire in-conference schedule).
Big East
In:
UConn [27-3 (17-2); Quad 1: 11-3; NET: 3]
Creighton [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 7-6; NET: 11]
Marquette [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 8-7; NET: 14]
Bubble:
Villanova [17-13 (10-9); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 29]
St. John’s [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 5-9; NET: 36]
Providence [19-11 (10-9); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 61]
Seton Hall [19-11 (12-7); Quad 1: 6-7; NET: 63]
Butler [18-13 (9-11); Quad 1: 4-11; NET: 65]
This league is looking at the possibility of six bids. Maybe even seven if everything works out in their favor. Five is the floor.
I will start with this: Throw out Seton Hall‘s NET. If the committee is going to punish the Pirates, a team that will have 20 wins (13 in-conference), because they lost a home game to Rutgers back in December, they need to look hard in the mirror. Yes, I wish they won a big non-conference game. But they have done more than enough inside the conference, including wins over UConn, Marquette, Villanova, St. John’s (2), Butler (2), and Providence. Yes, they have wins over everyone listed above other than Creighton, and one of those losses was a 3-OT thriller.
Villanova lost to Penn, Saint Joseph’s, and Drexel. They counteracted that with wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. It’s a strange resume that could end up with 15 losses if they lose to Creighton on Saturday and at some point in the Big East Tournament. In other words, they should make life easy on themselves and just beat Creighton.
St. John‘s earned two much-needed Quad 1 wins when their conquests of Utah and Villanova were elevated. Both wins can still slip back into Quad 2, so they are hoping both teams finish strong. Their path to the tournament looks like this: Don’t dare lose to Georgetown. Then, beat a good team in the Big East Tournament. Depending on how the bracket shakes out, that team might be one of the big three.
Providence has some of the same challenges as St. John‘s without a solid NET to fall back on. Unlike St. John’s, they can still improve their resume in the regular season as they play UConn on Saturday.
In case you do wonder why St. John’s and Providence have wildly different NET rankings despite some similar W-L metrics, some of it can be the offensive/defensive efficiency that is baked into the program. St. John’s is a Top 40 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency (KenPom), while Providence’s offensive efficiency is 125th. Plus, St. John’s played a better non-conference schedule, though Providence has the more impressive win (its best win is over Wisconsin, while St. John’s best win was over Utah). Anyway, when everything is added together, you end up the Red Storm having a better profile. However, as you have seen, the two teams continue to teeter on the bubble line. It’s very close. The committee doesn’t just rank by NET and choose teams.
Butler’s regular season is over, as they earned a win over Xavier in the season finale. The Bulldogs have zero bad losses but will likely require a significant Big East Tournament run to earn consideration.
Big Ten
In:
Purdue [27-3 (16-3); Quad 1: 11-3; NET: 2]
Illinois [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 16]
Michigan State [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 22]
Wisconsin [18-11 (10-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 23]
Bubble:
Nebraska [21-9 (11-8); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 43]
Northwestern [20-10 (11-8); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 53]
Iowa [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 57]
Ohio State [18-12 (8-11); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 59]
Wisconsin is 2-7 in their last nine games, but their NET hasn’t fallen off the map. This is the advantage of playing a strong non-conference schedule + zero bad losses + a couple of strong in-conference road wins. That said, as impressive as five Quad 1 wins are, does anyone have any confidence in this school once the NCAA Tournament begins?
As for the bubble, it is a mess. Northwestern had a shot at a bid-clinching win over Michigan State but came up short. Still, they have five Quadrant 1 wins, including a non-conference win over Dayton. Their resume is dinged significantly by a non-conference slate that was pretty much Dayton and nobody else. “Nobody else” includes Division I independent Chicago State, who defeated Northwestern by a pair earlier this season. That was a devastating Quad 4 loss.
Nebraska went on the road in the non-conference to pull off a decent win over Kansas State. That win is important because it is one of only two road victories for the Cornhuskers (Indiana is the other). There’s work to do here, including securing a third road win over Michigan in the season finale.
Iowa’s non-conference slate was middle-of-the-road and included a neutral-court win over Seton Hall. Their best argument is four road wins, including conquests of Michigan State and Northwestern. It would serve them well to beat Illinois on Sunday + make a run in the Big Ten Tournament.
Ohio State is a late edition who has recent wins over Purdue, Michigan State (road), and Nebraska. Is their win over Alabama enough to overcome other flaws? Not likely. The Buckeyes have a tricky road game against Rutgers to close out their campaign.
Missouri Valley
Bubble:
Indiana State [26-5 (17-3); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 30]
Drake [25-6 (16-4); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 48]
By all appearances, both schools belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even though Drake didn’t play a power conference school in the non-conference, their schedule was still solid and included a neutral court win over Nevada. They split with Indiana State and swept third-place Bradley. They wish they could erase that bad 24-point neutral court loss to Stephen F. Austin.
Indiana State‘s Quadrant 4 loss to Illinois State stings but doesn’t need to be season-ending. They didn’t play nearly the same schedule as Drake, though they did play against power conference schools (102-80 loss to Alabama and 87-75 loss to Michigan State). Just like Drake, Indiana State swept third-place Bradley.
For this league to receive two bids, Indiana State and Drake must face each other in the title game.
Mountain West
In:
San Diego State [22-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 19]
Bubble:
Boise State [21-9 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 25]
New Mexico [22-8 (10-7); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 26]
Utah State [25-5 (13-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 32]
Nevada [25-6 (12-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 33]
Colorado State [21-9 (9-8); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 35]
UNLV [19-10 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 76]
This is the craziest league in the country, bar none. San Diego State is locked in. While its hard to lock in anyone else, the odds are better that six of these teams are in than it is that any one of them will be left out (other than UNLV).
Just breaking it down, you have Nevada with six Quad 1 wins (and 11 Quad 1 games) and only one bad loss (on the road to Wyoming). They have earned six straight wins heading into their season finale against UNLV, a game that could help determine who wins the conference title.
Speaking of the conference title, Utah State is firmly in the driver’s seat. If they beat New Mexico this weekend, they will win the outright championship. The Aggies played a good non-conference schedule, though they beat quality mid-major schools over playing bigger-name squads. The Cayman Islands Classic was a battle of mid-majors and it was Utah State that emerged as the winners. They haven’t suffered a bad loss this season.
I always say that the Mountain West teams know how to play the game, and Boise State is no different. The Broncos defeated St. Mary’s and VCU in the non-conference while losing to Washington State by five. Their 8-8 Quad 1/2 record is impressive, and they only have one bad loss (a home loss to UNLV, which is turning out to be not-so-bad).
Of every team in this league, none has a better non-conference win than Colorado State‘s destruction of Creighton. Their strong non-conference slate also includes wins over Colorado and Washington (neutral) + a 3-point loss to St. Mary’s. The Rams finished cold (2-4), though one of the wins was a 20-point victory over Utah State.
UNLV has five straight wins, including conquests of San Diego State and Colorado State. They have a shot at a 6th Quad 1 win when they travel to play Nevada in the season closer. Like Colorado State, they beat Creighton and played a close game against St. Mary’s (2-OT loss). They are done in by three Quad 4 losses + the fact that their early-season game at Dayton was canceled. What happens if they at least get to the finals of the Mountain West Tournament? We’ll see.
Pac-12
In:
Arizona [23-6 (14-4); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 4]
Washington State [23-7 (14-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 40]
Bubble:
Colorado [20-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 31]
Utah [18-11 (9-9); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 46]
Oregon [19-10 (11-7); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 66]
At the top, the big question is whether Arizona has done enough to earn a #1 seed out West. If not, they will be the #2 team out West. That may seem like no big deal, but remember that the Wildcats lost a 2-15 game to Princeton last year.
Colorado has only that one Quad 1 win but does boast seven Quad 2 wins and zero bad losses. The Buffaloes will need to sweep their way through Oregon on Thursday/Saturday + win a Quad 1 game during the Pac-12 Tournament to feel somewhat safe.
Utah‘s resume has gained some traction. The Utes are haunted by a 3-OT home loss to Arizona and a couple of close calls in the non-conference (76-66 loss to Houston + 91-82 loss to St. John’s). To help counteract that, they own wins over BYU and St. Mary’s (road). Like with Colorado, it would be beneficial to sweep through Oregon on Thursday and Sunday.
Speaking of Oregon, they should be happy to welcome two bubble teams into their gym to close out their season. For now, the Ducks’ resume falls short, so a sweep of Colorado and Utah + two wins (I guess) in the Pac-12 Tournament would enhance their profile considerably. Failing that, the NIT is looking good.
SEC
In:
Tennessee [24-6 (14-3), Quad 1: 8-5; NET: 5]
Auburn [23-7 (12-5); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 6]
Alabama [20-10 (12-5); Quad 1: 4-9; NET: 7]
Kentucky [22-8 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 20]
Florida [21-9 (11-6); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 27]
Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-11 (8-9); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 39]
South Carolina [24-6 (12-5); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 47]
Texas A&M [17-13 (8-9); Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 49]
Ole Miss [20-10 (7-10); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 78]
How does a good team play a full season in the SEC and only compile one Quad 1 win? That said, Auburn is 8-0 in Quadrant 2 and 14-0 in Quad 3/4. This is an excellent team that just hasn’t been able to earn many top-top wins (except for their win over Alabama). Even their home win over South Carolina is Quad 2.
I have officially locked Florida in. Nobody is leaving them out at this point.
Mississippi State played a top 100 non-conference schedule that included wins over Washington State and Northwestern to take home the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. It also includes losses to Georgia Tech (road) and Southern. The Bulldogs ran into a gauntlet at the end of the season and haven’t responded well (0-3 against Kentucky, Auburn, and Texas A&M with a game against South Carolina to close out the season). I would place them in the “safe” category – just not locked in.
South Carolina played a terrible non-conference schedule, which is why their NET has been middling most of the year despite their 24-6 record. The Gamecocks have seven road wins this year, including one of the most impressive in all of college basketball (Tennessee). I would be shocked if they are left out.
Texas A&M has the weirdest resume in the group. You can’t ignore splitting 12 Quad 1 games, but you also can’t ignore four Quadrant 3 losses. In the non-conference, they beat Ohio State and Iowa State (neutral) while losing to Houston by four on a neutral court. If they beat Ole Miss in the finale and lose their first tournament game, would 18-14 be enough? It’s not a record that instills confidence, but it is one with a lot of quality included.
Ole Miss is 15-0 in Quad 3/4. Their lack of bad losses is impressive, but their overall resume is just not solid enough. Their only two wins since February 1st are against Missouri, and both games were close.
Sun Belt
Bubble:
James Madison [28-3 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 52]
James Madison finished their regular season on a 10-game winning streak and will enter the Sun Belt Tournament as the #2 seed behind Appalachian State, the team that has given the Dukes nightmares all season (two of their three losses). I don’t think they are earning an at-large, but if they want a chance they need to get to the title game.
West Coast
In:
Gonzaga [24-6 (14-2); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 17]
St. Mary’s [24-7 (15-1); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 18]
Bubble:
None.
Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are safely in the tournament and nobody else has a shot.