Tom's Sports Blog

History: Conference USA often feels like the island of misfit toys. The last time a current league member won the championship was in 2017 when Middle Tennessee cut down the nets. The Blue Raiders are the only current league member who has ever won this championship. Since 2017, Marshall, Old Dominion, North Texas, UAB, and Florida Atlantic have won.

Returning Champion: Florida Atlantic. The Owls, 18-2 in conference play, won the title by 22 over UAB. That catapulted them to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament, where they lost a heartbreaker to San Diego State.

Format:  All nine schools make the field. The #8 and #9 seeds play in the first round for the right to take on the #1 seed.

Favorite:  Sam Houston (20-11, 13-3)

This was Sam Houston’s first year in Conference USA, and they made it count. The Bearkats won their final seven games.

Nothing stands out about them. They didn’t win any big games in the non-conference and are mid-pack in most categories. That said, the roster is loaded with juniors and seniors, and they swept the league’s second-best team (Louisiana Tech) during the regular season.

Contenders: Louisiana Tech (22-9, 12-4), Western Kentucky (19-11, 8-8), Liberty (18-13, 7-9)

Live Long Shot:  New Mexico State (13-18, 7-9)

Preview:

Louisiana Tech is a Top 100 team in the NET. In the non-conference, they own an impressive win over fellow mid-major McNeese, a team that lost three games. They finished the season on a 6-1 run, though the one less was to Sam Houston. The Bulldogs, a constant presence in the NCAA Tournament between 1984 and 1991, haven’t played in the Big Dance since. This squad is one of the top defensive teams in the country. They allow only 64.4 points on 39.1% shooting. Offensively, they are a decent 3-point shooting squad led by Isaiah Crawford (16.5 points/41.1% from three) and Tahlik Chavez (13.8 points/40.8% from three).

Western Kentucky is the highest-scoring squad in the conference, averaging 80.2 points on 46.7% shooting. When the Hilltoppers were a member of the Sun Belt, they were dominant, making the NCAA Tournament 12 times in 28 years. They were consistently in the Top 25 during this period and won several NCAA Tournament games. They enter the tournament on a 4-game losing streak.

Liberty continues to put up solid campaigns. This was their first year in Conference USA after winning 20+ games in seven straight seasons while playing in the Big South/Atlantic Sun. This sharpshooting squad ranks 12th in 3-pointers made (10.2), 18th in attempts (27.7), and 43rd in percentage (36.6%). The Flames won the mid-major laden Mrtyle Beach Invitational, where they defeated Furman, Wichita State, and Vermont. 

New Mexico State was a WAC beast for many years. Their first year in Conference USA didn’t go quite as well, as a recent 2-8 stretch buried them in the league standings. As the #6 seed, they will take on Western Kentucky in the first round, a squad they split with. The Aggies played a strong non-conference slate but didn’t come close to any significant wins.

Bottom Line:

Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech are the two best teams, though Western Kentucky‘s ability to score and Liberty‘s ability to shoot are scary.

Winner: Louisiana Tech doesn’t lose for a third time, defeating Sam Houston in the championship game.

History: Georgetown has fallen on hard times, but they have the most tournament tiles (8). It can be hard to believe that the Hoyas won the title as recently as 2021. Syracuse, long gone from the conference, has reached the title game the most often (15).

Winning the Big East Tournament doesn’t typically equate to NCAA Tournament success. Villanova is the last team to pull off the Big East/NCAA Tournament double when they won both in 2018. Two of the last three champions didn’t make it out of the first weekend (2021 Georgetown lost their first game, while 2023 champion Marquette lost in the second round).

Returning Champion: Marquette. The Golden Eagles won the regular-season and tournament crowns. It was their first Big East Tournament title. As stated above, they lost to Michigan State in a 2-vs-7 game in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Format:  All 11 schools make the field, with the top five seeds automatically advancing to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  UConn (28-3, 18-2)

The Huskies pulled off one of the most dominant Big East regular seasons you will ever find. Only six of their 18 conference wins were within single digits, and two of those games were 9-point margins. Amongst their 11 Quad 1 wins are non-conference conquests of Texas, North Carolina, and Gonzaga. Every win was by double digits.

The Huskies score (3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency) and defend (13th in adjusted defensive efficiency). Despite their offensive prowess, nobody averages more than 15 points. Pick your poison on who you want to stop and hope the others have cold nights.

Contenders: Creighton (23-8, 14-6), Marquette (23-8, 14-6), Seton Hall (20-11, 13-7), St. John’s (19-12, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  Providence (19-12, 10-10)

Preview:

Can anyone stop UConn? Of course. No team is unstoppable. While I wouldn’t expect miracles, both games against Butler this year were decided by single digits, while Xavier did the same in one of their two matchups. Whoever wins the Butler – Xavier game will play UConn.

Creighton enters the tournament on a 7-1 run, including a win over UConn. The Blue Jays have eight Quad 1 wins and are 15-8 in Quad 1/2. They average 80.8 points with three players averaging over 17 points (Guard Baylor Scheierman averages 18.5 points/8.8 rebounds/4.1 assists). UConn gets a lot of press, and for good reason. However, Creighton is a legitimate Final Four contender.

Marquette played a tough non-conference slate that included wins over Illinois, Kansas, and Texas. In a stacked Maui Jim Invitational, they lost the title game to Purdue by three. The big question for the Golden Eagles is the status of senior guard Tyler Kolek (15.0 points, 7.6 assists). He missed the final two games of the season due to an oblique injury. If he’s healthy, Marquette is the third Final Four threat from the Big East. If not, he is going to be tough to replace.

Seton Hall won at least one game against every team in the Big East other than Creighton. One of their losses to the Blue Jays was a 3-overtime thriller. The top five scorers are all seniors. While Kadary Richmond (16.2 points/6.6 rebounds/4.8 assists) is a legit offensive star, the Pirates rely heavily on their defense. In their win over UConn, they held the high-scoring Huskies to 60 points, one of nine times they held a Big East opponent under 70 (they had three other games where they held opponents to exactly 70). The Pirates didn’t do much in the non-conference, losing to Iowa, USC, Baylor, and Rutgers. Their best win was a neutral-court triumph of Missouri, hardly a major win.

St. John’s enters the tournament on a five-game winning streak that saved their season. While three of those wins were over Georgetown and DePaul, they also defeated Creighton and Butler by double digits. Like Seton Hall, the Red Storm relies heavily on seniors. Four of their top five scorers are seniors. 6’11” forward Joel Soriano is a beast, averaging 14.1 points and 9.4 rebounds. The Seton Hall – St. John’s winner will likely get UConn in the semifinals.

Providence needs a run to receive an at-large bid. If they get past Georgetown, they will face off with Creighton, a team they split with this season. Junior guard Devin Carter averages 19.4 points and 8.6 rebounds. The Friars earned some credibility when they knocked off Wisconsin by 13 in the Gavitt Tipoff Games. It was a home game. They finished the season with a 5-6 mark in their last 11 games, dropping them to borderline bubble status.

Bottom Line:

If UConn is on top of their game, it will be very hard to beat them. However, there are roadblocks. Butler or Xavier can put a scare into them, as can St. John‘s or Seton Hall. For a #1 seed, their road isn’t paved in gold. The Huskies will have to earn it.

Winner: Creighton. Marquette broke through with their first Big East title in 2023. In 2024, Creighton will try to repeat that feat. They are 0-4 all-time in Big East title games, including back-to-back losses in 2021 and 2022.

History: The wacky MAC typically produces a winner that teams don’t wish to see in the NCAA Tournament. Their most recent conquest was in 2021 when Ohio (who has a history of NCAA Tournament upsets) knocked off Virginia in a 13-vs-4 game. The past two years have produced close calls: Akron lost by four to UCLA in 2022 while Kent State lost to Indiana by 11 in 2023.

Three squads are tied for the most tournament titles (Ball State, Ohio, and Kent State have seven titles).  Bowling Green is the only current league member to never win the tournament.

Despite the NCAA Tournament success stories, the MAC consistently receives only one NCAA Tournament bid. That won’t change in 2024.

Returning Champion: Kent State became the 4th different champion in the last four tournaments. As the #2 seed, they topped #1 Toledo by 15 in the championship.

Format:  Only eight of the league’s 12 squads qualify. This year, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Buffalo didn’t make the field. The tournament is straightforward.

Favorite:  Akron (21-10, 13-5)

The Zips are the #2 seed, but I think they are the best team. In the non-conference (where they played one of the toughest schedules), they lost by three to Utah State on a neutral court and two to UNLV on the road. That said, despite installing them as the favorites, it should be noted that they are only 5-5 in their last ten games, including losing their final two games to squads who rank 321st and 285th in the NET.

This is a senior-laden team with one of the best players amongst all mid-majors: Forward Enrique Freeman averages 18.1 points and 12.8 rebounds, the top number in the country. Going back to the 1999-2000 season, he is 6th in defensive rebounds (954).

Can they get back to what they were earlier in the year? If not, there are plenty of others who can take this title.

Contenders: Toledo (20-11, 14-4), Ohio (19-12, 13-5), Central Michigan (18-13, 12-6), Bowling Green (19-12, 10-8)

Live Long Shot:  Kent State (15-16, 8-10)

Preview:

The MAC is a fun league. I make it a point to watch this tournament (especially the championship).

Toledo played in the Big Dawgs Classic, a tournament with solid mid-majors. They went 0-3, but the games were close: New Mexico (8), UC-Irvine (6), and Indiana State (2). In a late-season game against Southland champion Appalachian State, they lost 109-104 in two overtimes. While defense isn’t their game, the Rockets can score (80.7 points; 63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency). They don’t love to shoot three-pointers (336th in attempts per game), but they are accurate when they do so (37.9%; 15th). They are a dangerous squad looking to break a long slump, as they haven’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 1980. This is despite having some good teams. This is their 4th straight 20+ win campaign and sixth in their last seven years.

As stated above, Ohio is a menace whenever they get to the NCAA Tournament. The last three times they have appeared in the Big Dance (2010, 2012, 2021), they have won at least one game (two in 2012). This is a well-balanced squad, with three players averaging between 12.4 – 13.9 points and 4.3 – 4.5 rebounds. There’s nothing “sexy” here and they didn’t challenge themselves much in the non-conference. However, they won six straight games to close the season, including wins over Akron and Bowling Green.

Central Michigan is the only team in the league with a Quad 1 win, as they defeated South Florida on the road (the Bulls lost on Saturday, which could drop that win to Quad 2). If the Chippewas face off with Toledo in the semi-finals, they should have some confidence as they beat the Rockets in their only meeting this season. Their biggest issue is that they are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, so they have to try to win ugly.

Bowling Green is a good story. The Falcons haven’t made it to the NCAA Tournament since 1968. This season was a nice turnaround for a squad that went 11-20 last year. Junior guard Marcus Hill is the star of the show, averaging 20.6 points and five rebounds. He is the definition of a volume scorer, as he launches 17 shots per game (44.5%).

Kent State was one of the preseason favorites, but they barely hung on to make the tournament. They didn’t do much in their two games against Toledo this season, but this is an experienced team that just couldn’t get much going after an early-season two-overtime loss to James Madison.

Bottom Line:

This is going to be fun. I think it is time for Toledo to end their NCAA Tournament drought.

Winner: Toledo

History: North Carolina A&T has 16 conference titles, or 31.4% of all titles combined. However, they have won only once since their 1995 title (2013).

The MEAC traditionally doesn’t do well in the NCAA Tournament, but there are a few notable upsets in its history. In 2012, #15 Norfolk State knocked off #2 Missouri. In 2001, Hampton pulled off the 15-vs-2 upset when they knocked off Iowa State. At the time, they were the 4th #15 seed in history to win an NCAA Tournament game. Who was the third team to do it? Coppin State, who knocked off South Carolina in the opening round. The Eagles were nearly the first #15 seed to make it to the Sweet 16, losing by one to Texas. So, of the 11 all-time #15 seeds who pulled off the 15-vs-2 upset, three of them came from the MEAC.

Returning Champion: Howard. As the #1 seed, they cruised into the championship, defeating Norfolk State by a point. They avoided a “First Four” game but lost to Kansas by 28 in a 16-vs-1 matchup.

Format:  This tournament is as straightforward as it gets. All eight teams make it, and they play a basic tournament format to determine the champion.

Favorite:  Norfolk State (21-10, 11-3)

One of only two teams with an overall winning record, the Spartans own an impressive Quad 2 road win over VCU. Head coach Robert Jones is 209-147 at the helm with five 20+ win seasons (including three in a row). Junior guard Jamarii Thomas is the star of the show, averaging 17.5 points and 3.8 assists.

Contenders: North Carolina Central (17-12, 9-5), South Carolina State (14-17, 9-5), Howard (15-16, 9-5)

Live Long Shot:  Maryland Eastern Shore (9-19, 4-10)

Preview:

The MEAC is a battle-tested league, as many of its members take the cash to go on the road in the non-conference against top-caliber competition. The eight teams combined to play 15 Quad 1 games (0-15).

North Carolina Central won three straight titles between 2017 and 2019. This year, they are a legitimate threat to Norfolk State. Little (5’9″) senior guard Fred Cleveland is their best player, averaging 15.1 points and 5.4 assists. They enter the tournament with four wins in their last five games.

South Carolina State was on a five-game winning streak before losing to North Carolina Central in the season finale. This is a deep squad with 11 players who average between 14.2 and 21.1 minutes. Because of the constant rotating of players, nobody averages more than 8.5 points.

Howard rotates ten players but relies heavily on a trio. Bryce Harris (16.3 points/7.6 rebounds), Seth Towns (14.4 points/6.3 rebounds), and Marcus Dockery (13.5 points) each play 30+ minutes. The Bison lost to Georgia Tech by three and Cincinnati by five (overtime) in the non-conference.

Maryland Eastern Shore is the live longshot because they have a win over Norfolk State, though they wouldn’t get another crack at them unless both squads are in the title game.

Bottom Line:

This conference is not typically won by an under-the-radar team. Most winners are at or near the top of the conference standings. I don’t expect that to change, as the top four teams have drawn away from the rest of the field.

Winner: Howard

History: Unlike other conferences, no one team has dominated this league. The leader in tournament titles is Northeast Louisiana, who won six titles between 1986 and 1996. Now known as Louisiana-Monroe, they left the conference after the 2006 season. Lamar is the active leader in titles, with four (none since 2012). In 2021, little Abilene Christian pulled off a massive upset when they defeated Texas in a 14-vs-3 matchup. They have since moved on to the WAC.

Returning Champion: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won their second straight championship in 2023. They were forced into the First Four, where they defeated Southeast Missouri State before losing to Alabama by 21 in a 16-vs-1 matchup.

Format:  Eight of the ten teams make the field (this year, Houston Christian and Incarnate Word missed the cut). It’s a stepladder format, with the top two seeds automatically advanced to the semifinals. #7 seed Texas A&M-Commerce is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament if they win. They are still in their Division I transition period.

Favorite:  McNeese State (28-3, 17-1)

The Cowboys are 58th in the NET and were on the bubble’s bubble for a large chunk of the season. During the season, they ranked in the Top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They earned three Quad 2 wins, including a road win over VCU in the season opener. Their at-large hopes were dashed by a Quad 4 loss to Southeastern Louisiana.

Their rise to this level is rather amazing. Before this season, they hadn’t accomplished a winning season since 2011-2012. Former LSU coach Will Wade is the catalyst.

Their average margin of victory is an impressive 19 points, as they average 80.2 points (44th) while allowing only 61.2 (4th). They rank 9th in the nation in 3-point shooting at 38.6%/

Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (21-10, 14-4), Nicholls (18-13, 13-5), Lamar (18-13, 12-6)

Live Long Shot:  Northwestern State (9-22, 7-11)

Preview:

McNeese is dominant. Is there anyone who can challenge them?

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is the #2 seed. They lost both games to McNeese by a combined eight points and finished the season on a 7-game winning streak. They played Texas Tech within nine back in November. The Islanders are in the Top 100 in defensive efficiency and allowed only 66 points per game. This is a team that McNeese wouldn’t want to see in the title game.

Nicholls went 5-1 down the stretch. However, they played McNeese twice in their final seven games, losing by a combined 48 points. They have four players who average double-digits and they are on the opposite side of the bracket, but it is hard to see them winning this tournament.

Lamar played a tough game against Nicholls on 2/26, losing by only two (58-56). They are a pretty good offensive team with plenty of depth (ten players average 10+ minutes). At their best, they can offer Nicholls a tough game. Given that they are on the same side of the bracket, they will need to slay the beast.

Northwestern State went 0-11 in the non-conference and didn’t win a game all season outside of Quadrant 4. However, if they can survive the 6-vs-7 game (not guaranteed), it should be noted that they played Nicholls within single digits twice this year. All but one of their conference wins this year came against squads that ended up losing 20+ games, making them more of a “best of the rest” than a true giant killer.

Bottom Line:

McNeese is the team you want if you want a team that can do a little damage in the NCAA Tournament. They are by far the best team here.

Winner: McNeese.

History: In a world of constant flux, the Big Sky Conference has remained mostly intact. Southern Utah left the league in 2022, but that is a rarity (and they were only in the conference for ten years).  Montana and Weber State have traditionally dominated this league, with Montana winning 11 titles while Weber State has ten. However, Montana hasn’t won since 2019 while Weber State’s drought goes back to 2016.

In the NCAA Tournament, this league has had mild success. Their last win came in 2006 when Montana defeated Nevada in a 12-vs-5 contest. Weber State won two 14-vs-3 games, both against traditional powerhouses. In 1995, they defeated Michigan State 79-72. In 1999, they knocked off North Carolina by a 76-74 margin before losing to Florida in overtime.

Returning Champion: Montana State repeated its 2022 run with another win in 2023. Last year, as the #2 seed, they beat upstart #9 seed Northern Arizona. As the #1 seed in 2022, they destroyed Northern Colorado by 21. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, they played a respectable game against #3 seed Kansas State, losing by 12.

Format:  All ten schools make the tournament, with seeds 7-10 playing in the first round.

Favorite:  Eastern Washington (21-10, 15-3)

The Eagles enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak. They challenged themselves in the non-conference, going 0-7 in Quad 1/2 games. Their closest loss was a 7-point loss to Washington, but they also played tough games against Mississippi, Cincinnati, and Washington State. 

Five players, all of whom are juniors or seniors, averaged 10+ points per game. Their top four scorers are all listed as forwards, two of which stand 6’10”. Despite their size, both Ethan Price and Dane Erikstrup love to shoot the three and the team as a whole is at 36.9% (37th in the nation). They rank 71st in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 81.2 points.

Contenders: Northern Colorado (19-12, 12-6), Montana (21-10, 12-6), Weber State (20-11, 11-7)

Live Long Shot: Northern Arizona (14-18, 7-11)

Preview:

I love the Big Sky Conference Tournament. It’s played late at night (the title game is at 9:30 PM MT) and can be a rather fun tournament.

Northern Colorado lost a pair of close games to Eastern Washington this season. The Bears earned the #2 seed in the field, keeping them away from Eastern Washington until a potential title game. Like Eastern Washington, they like to score, averaging 80.4 points. They have a star junior forward: 6’7″ Saint Thomas averages a double-double (20 points/10 rebounds) and can distribute as well (4.0 assists). As a team, their 49.1% mark from the field is 16th in the country. They are one of the worst defensive squads in the nation, so their offense must show up.

Montana is always in the mix, aren’t they? The Grizzlies haven’t had a losing season since their 2007-2008 campaign, and this is their 9th 20+ win season since. They finished the year on a 5-1 run and played Nevada within 11 in the non-conference. You don’t want to fall behind this squad late, as their 80% free-throw percentage ranks 4th in the country. It’s a well-balanced team with senior leadership (five of their top six scorers are seniors).

Weber State is 8-2 in their last ten games. The Wildcats have a Quad 1 win on their resume (at St Mary’s) and are 2-0 in Quad 2 games (Yale on a neutral court and Eastern Washington on the road). Like Northern Colorado, the Wildcats have a player who averages a double-double: Junior forward Dillon Jones averages 20.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. He can put the team on his back and win the three games they need to take the title.

Northern Arizona has a win over Eastern Washington and earned a Quad 2 win by beating Seattle on the road. That said, there is no hiding that they aren’t especially good offensively or defensively, and winning the 7-8 game over Idaho State won’t be simple.

Bottom Line:

This conference is a bit top-heavy, as Montana and Weber State try to reestablish themselves as the kings of the Big Sky. Eastern Washington had a great year, but I think Dillon Jones will be the difference-maker. There’s a chance he can match up with Northern Colorado‘s Saint Thomas in the championship.

Winner: Weber State

History: Formerly known as the Colonial Athletic Association, the Coastal Athletic Association has some history of NCAA Tournament success, though their last conquest was in 2012 when former member VCU upset Wichita State in a 12-vs-5 matchup. One year earlier, as an at-large team, VCU made it to the Final Four, where they lost to Butler by eight. On their way to the Final Four, Butler defeated Old Dominion by only two in the first round (an 8-9 matchup).

Of the teams still in the league, UNC-Wilmington has the most titles (6), though they haven’t won it since 2017.

Returning Champion: Charleston. At 31-4, they weren’t even the top seed (Hofstra had the same conference record at 16-2). Hofstra was upset in the semi-finals by UNC Wilmington.

In the NCAA Tournament, Charleston gave eventual national runner-up San Diego State a fight in the first round, before losing 63-57.

Format: All 14 schools make the field. In the first round (already completed), the #11 seed faces the #14 seed while the #12 seed takes on the #13 seed. Teams seeded 1-4 automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Charleston (24-7, 15-3)

While last year’s squad would have firmly been on the bubble if they didn’t win the conference tournament, this year’s squad doesn’t have that luxury. The Cougars enter the tournament on an impressive 9-game winning streak that includes wins over many of the other top schools. This team wants to play at a fast pace and score. They average 81 points (30th in the nation) on the strength of pure volume. They hoist up 65.1 field goal attempts (7th) and 31.1 three-point attempts (3rd). They rely a lot on upperclassman balance, as no one player averages more than 12.7 points.

Contenders: Drexel (20-11, 13-5), Hofstra (19-12, 12-6), UNC Wilmington (21-9, 12-6), Towson (18-13, 11-7), Delaware (18-13, 10-8)

Live Long Shot: Northeastern (12-19, 7-11)

Preview:

Not only is this league balanced, it is dangerous. Three teams pulled off a Quadrant 1 win this year and four teams have a NET in the 103-122 range. That isn’t bad for a one-bid mid-major league.

Drexel defeated Villanova on a neutral court in the non-conference and lost by 11 at Princeton. Unlike Charleston, the Dragons want to play at a methodical pace and limit possessions. While they score only 72.8 points, they allow only 65.8 (28th best). Senior forward Amari Williams is a handful. The 6’10”, 227-pounder averages 12.3 points and 7.8 rebounds. They are 5-1 in their last six games but lost their only game against Charleston.

Hofstra has a pair of Quad 2 wins, including a home conquest of AAC beast South Florida. The Pride played St. John’s within five on the road as well. They enter the tournament 8-2 in their last ten games, though they lost their season finale to Charleston by 11 (road). They connect on an impressive 37.4% of their three-point attempts and have a bonafide senior guard star duo (Tyler Thomas averages 22.3 points, while Darlinstone Dubar averages 18.1).

UNC Wilmington pulled off one of the most impressive mid-major wins this season, as they went on the road to knock off Kentucky. After an impressive 10-1 stretch in conference play, they finished 2-3 to cost themselves a shot at the conference title. Like Charleston, they like to score (80.2; 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency). They grabbed the #4 seed, giving them the coveted auto-bye to the quarterfinals.

Towson didn’t shy away from competition and played respectably against Houston, losing by 16. The #5 seed defeated Charleston and Delaware on the road this year (though they lost their home games to both). There exists a variety of styles in this league, and Towson is the anti-tempo squad. They score a minuscule 68 points, though they allow only 64.2 (15th). They haven’t made it to the NCAA Tournament since 1991.

Delaware‘s Quadrant 1 win came at Xavier. The Blue Hens are struggling heading into the tournament, going 2-4 in their last six games. This squad is middle-of-the-pack in the NCAA in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and tempo. Junior forward Jyare Davis is a handful for every team. He scored 19 points against Xavier and had a stretch of four straight double-double performances. They will take on Hampton in the second round, with a game against Hofstra awaiting in the quarterfinals. They only met up once, a 5-point home win for Hofstra.

Northeastern lost to Seton Hall by 13 and Virginia by two in road contests. In this field, it is hard to endorse anyone above the top teams – but at least Northeastern has shown the ability to play good teams and not embarrass themselves. They will take on Stony Brook (a 7th seed with a 17-14 record).

Bottom Line:

This one is hard. Charleston is hot, but one can make an argument for 7-8 teams in this tournament. I haven’t even mentioned Monmouth, a team that went 17-14 and 10-8 in the league. They are the 8th seed.

Winner: Hofstra

History: While South Dakota State (6 titles) and North Dakota State (4) have dominated this tournament since 2012, Oral Roberts has taken home the crown two of the past three years.

In 2021, Oral Roberts rode the wave of winning this tournament to make it to the Sweet 16 as a #15 seed (where they lost to Alabama by two).

Returning Champion: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles went 15-0 in conference play and 30-5 overall. As a #12 seed, they were a popular pick to beat Duke but didn’t show up in a 74-51 loss.

Format: All nine teams make the field (the #8 and #9 seeds play in the opening round). St. Thomas is eligible to win the tournament but not for the NCAA Tournament (transition period).

Favorite:  South Dakota State (19-12, 12-4)

The Jackrabbits are back at the top. They have been one of the most consistent mid-major winners going back a decade, though they have yet to get over the hump in the NCAA Tournament (0-6).

Their balanced attack (four players average between 11.5 and 19.3 points) is led by junior guard Zeke Mayo, who averages 19.3 points/5.9 rebounds/3.6 assists. In the non-conference, they played tough against UCF (83-80 loss) and George Mason (73-71). They enter the tournament on a five-game winning streak.

Contenders: Kansas City (16-15, 10-6), North Dakota (18-13, 10-6), St. Thomas (19-12, 9-7)

Live Long Shot: Denver (15-16, 6-10)

Preview:

As you can tell, this league is highly competitive. While South Dakota State ran away with the league title late, the teams are bunched up with several squads having a legitimate chance to cut down the nets.

Kansas City has never made it to the NCAA Tournament. The Roos enter this tournament on a 6-game winning streak that includes a win over South Dakota State. They didn’t do much winning in the non-conference, but they did challenge themselves with games against Baylor, Kansas, and Colorado State. Losing senior guard Anderson Kopp (13.1 PPG) was a major blow in December, but they seem to have adjusted to his loss.

North Dakota has one NCAA Tournament appearance (2017). The Fighting Hawks played Nebraska within eight on the road. They are boosted by the return of Tyree Ihenacho, who averages 14.8 points. They aren’t a high-tempo or efficient squad, but they score (75.4) and crash the offensive boards (11.6; 80th in the country). They take on Omaha in the 3-vs-6 contest.

St. Thomas can create some havoc if they win the tournament. The Tommies rise in the conference has been remarkable, given it is only their third year in Division I. Two years ago, they finished 10-20. They are 38-26 since and are a decent 143rd in the KenPom rankings this year (155th in the NET). They split with their first-round opponent (North Dakota State, who finished 15-16). They played a tough game at Marquette earlier this season, losing by an 84-79 margin. They are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, allowing them to hold opponents to 65.3 points.

Denver plays Kansas City in the first round. Like Kansas City, the Pioneers have never played in the NCAA Tournament. They are an exciting team that scores 82.6 points (while allowing 81.9, 359th in the nation). As you may suspect, they play at a high pace (and having home games in Denver likely makes it tough on their opponents).  Tommy Bruner is a college basketball star, who leads the nation in scoring (24.5) while dishing out 4.4 assists. They showed off their scoring chops in the non-conference, where they lost to Colorado State 90-80 and BYU 90-74. Despite their accolades, they enter this tournament on a 3-game losing streak, where they are averaging only 65.7 points.

Bottom Line:

This is a wide-open field, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any team winning it. That said, the team that wins this tournament is typically a team close to the top of the league.

Winner: Why not go with some chaos and pick St. Thomas to cut down the nets?