Yankees MILB 4/4: Everson Pereira Goes Yard

News:

The Yankees released the Somerset/Hudson Valley/Tampa rosters this week. I don’t read too much into that, to be honest. The Yankees have their reasons for placing players at certain levels.

The biggest surprise, to me, was Keiner Delgado not being assigned to a full-season level. While it is true that George Lombard Jr. and Roderick Arias are occupying spots in Tampa, they could have found playing time for Delgado.

However, it isn’t a life sentence. Delgado will get to Tampa soon enough is my guess.

Tomorrow begins the insane portion of the season, as Somerset, Hudson Valley, and Tampa are scheduled for their openers. The weather looks chilly but fine for Somerset and Hudson Valley (road against Bowling Green (Kentucky)), while Tampa’s trip to Fort Myers should be met with plenty of sunshine.

RHP Zach Messinger is announced as the starter for Somerset, while RHP Sebastian Keane and LHP Cade Smith are listed as the scheduled starters for Hudson Valley and Tampa. For Smith, it will be the 2023 draftee’s professional debut. Keane pitched mostly out of the bullpen in 2023 but made a pair of starts for Low-A Tampa.

Scranton (2-2) (Lost an ugly game (especially in the 9th) to Syracuse, 5-4)

CF Greg Allen: 0-for-5, 4 K
2B Caleb Durbin: 4-for-5, 3B (1), RBI
Not known for his power, three of Durbin’s first eight hits have gone for extra bases (two doubles, one triple). 
DH Carlos Narvaez: 0-for-4, 3 K
RF Everson Pereira: 1-for-3, HR (2), RBI, 2 RS, BB, K
It is easy to toss a prospect out of your mind when their first taste of MLB doesn’t go well. I wouldn’t dismiss Pereira quickly, especially since many people weren’t surprised by his initial struggles. For now, he is MLB depth and a potential trade piece.
1B Jose Rojas: 1-for-4, K
C Luis Torrens: 1-for-3, SF, RBI, K
Torrens’ first official game back with the organization since September 5, 2016. Since he is on the 40-man, Narvaez is the default #3 catcher but Torrens (with his MLB experience) is also in the mix.
SS Jeter Downs: 2-for-4, 3B (1), HR (1), RBI, RS, 2 K
I can’t be the only one hoping that Downs earns at least a cup of coffee with the big club. This home run went an impressive 409 feet.
LF Luis Gonzalez: 1-for-4, K
3B Jordan Groshans: 1-for-4, 2B (2), RS

LHP Edgar Barclay: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
Barclay survived the Rule 5 over the winter. Last season, he pitched well as a reliever for Somerset before struggling as a starter for Scranton. Barclay doesn’t throw hard (topped out at 91.6 MPH tonight, averaged 89.8) so he relies more on commanding his stuff than overpowering you. He also featured a changeup (41%) and curve (16%) tonight. He generated nine whiffs amongst the 19 swings when he threw the changeup.
LHP Anthony Misiewicz: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K
RHP Duane Underwood Jr.: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K
Underwood threw a changeup that registered 91.3 on the gun. That could be an error.
RHP Yerry De Los Santos: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
De Los Santos threw a 94.9 MPH sinker – that is not likely an error.
LHP Clayton Andrews: (L, 0-1) 0.1 IP, 1 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 0 K
Ooph.
LHP Oddanier Mosqueda: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K
He had a chance to stop the bleeding, but couldn’t do it.

Somerset (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

Hudson Valley (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

Tampa (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

FCL (0-0)

The season starts on 5/4.

DSL (0-0)

It will be a while before their season starts!

Ex-Yankees Prospects: Where are they?

A look at the prospects the Yankees have traded/lost over the last several years. This list is comprehensive (in my opinion) but not complete.

The Jameson Taillon deal:

RHP Roansy Contreras – The “big fish” in the deal for Pittsburgh, Contreras has struggled to the point where the Pirates moved him to the bullpen.

RHP Miguel Yajure – Yajure compiled an 8.69 ERA in 39.1 innings for the Pirates before moving to the Giants’ organization. Last year, he pitched at three levels, compiling a 6.07 ERA in 65.2 innings. He elected free agency at the end of the campaign and signed with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. Many players have earned their way back to MLB using this route.

OF Canaan Smith-Njigba – Still a member of the Pirates organization, Smith-Njigba went 5-for-25 in spring training with three home runs. Designated for assignment at the end of spring training, he passed through waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A.

IF Maikol Escotto – Still only 21, Escotto has been unable to get on track after a big debut season for the Yankees DSL squad. At the very least, he is a cautionary tale about taking rookie league numbers too seriously.

The Pirates are hoping that Contreras salvages this deal for them by pitching well out of the bullpen.

The Joey Gallo deal:

RHP Glenn Otto – The Rangers designated Otto for assignment in September. The Padres claimed him and he made three late-season starts for their Triple-A ballclub in El Paso. He is on the injured list due to a “Right teres major strain.”

UTIL Ezequiel Duran – Duran seemingly was having a breakout to start 2023, but slowed down considerably to the point where he wasn’t included on the postseason roster (he was eventually added to the World Series roster when Adolis Garcia went down in Game 3). He made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster.

UTIL Josh H. Smith – Smith earned his World Series ring by playing a variety of positions for the Rangers in 2023. The bat wasn’t there (.185/.304/.328), but the Rangers’ offense was dominant enough to absorb it. This season, he has played two games at third base and an inning at shortstop so it appears his role will be similar.

UTIL Trevor Hauver – Hauver is now in Triple-A after hitting .260/.374/.429 in 107 games for Double-A Frisco in 2023. Hauver was Rule 5 eligible this past winter but went undrafted.

This isn’t a group of All-Stars, but the Rangers must be happy about the return.

The Anthony Rizzo deal:

RHP Alexander Vizcaino – After failing to report to the Cubs last year, Vizcaino resurfaced in the Dominican Winter League, where he pitched to a 2.70 ERA in five games. I have no idea what his plans are.

OF Kevin Alcantara – Alcantara is the #5 prospect in the Cubs organization (Pipeline). At 20 years old, he made it to Double-A in 2023 after posting a .286/.341/.466 line in 408 plate appearances for High-A South Bend. His ETA is in 2025, but he can push up that timetable. He is on the 40-man roster with a pair of options remaining.

The Andrew Heaney deal:

RHP Janson Junk – Junk has since moved on to the Brewers, where he made two appearances (one start) in 2023. His 2024 began in Triple-A Nashville.

RHP Elvis Peguero – After the Yankees traded Junk/Peguero to the Angels, the Angels packaged them again in a trade to the Brewers. Peguero made the team out of spring training and has picked up two wins in two relief appearances to start 2024. Nice pace.

The Yankees traded a pair of spare parts for Heaney. It is good to see that both have lived out their MLB dreams.

The Clay Holmes deal:

UTIL Hoy Park – Park hasn’t played in MLB since 2022. After signing with the Braves organization in 2023, he moved on to the Oakland Athletics in 2024. Park had an incredible spring training (21-for-44 with five doubles and a homer). On a team as bad as Oakland’s, that could have been enough to earn him the #3 spot in the lineup. However, they sent him off to Triple-A instead.

UTIL Diego Castillo – Castillo was briefly a property of the Yankees this spring after they claimed him off waivers. After being designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks, he took a mid-Atlantic tour, being claimed by the Mets, the Yankees, and the Phillies before settling in with the Orioles. The Orioles also designated him for assignment, but he passed through waivers and is in Triple-A.

This trade didn’t look like much, but the Yankees struck gold.

The Jose Trevino deal:

LHP Robby Ahlstrom – Ahlstrom (24) pitched in 40 games between High-A and Double-A in 2023. He compiled a 3.68 ERA in 58.1 innings with a 79/32 K/BB. Ahlstrom was traded to the Rangers before appearing in the Yankees organization.

The Andrew Benintendi deal:

RHP Beck Way – Way had a tough time in Double-A, pitching to a 6.67 ERA in 79.2 innings. With that, he was invited to Spring Training in 2024 where he appeared in two games.

RHP Chandler Champlain – Champlain is the #12 prospect in the Royals organization. After a dominant start in High-A, he was pushed to Double-A, where he pitched to a respectable 3.82 ERA in 73 innings with a 64/25 K/BB. He could profile as a bottom-of-the-rotation innings eater or multi-inning reliever.

LHP T.J. Sikkema – Sikkema has moved on to the Cincinnati Reds organization after being drafted in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. Sikkema was roughed up in Double-A last year, pitching to a 5.85 ERA in 72.1 innings.

This trade seems to be all about what happens with Champlain.

The Scott Effross deal:

RHP Hayden Wesneski – Wesneski received an extended look in 2023, pitching to a 4.63 ERA (5.48 FIP) in 34 games (11 starts) with a 21.9% K and 8.4% BB. His strikeout rate spiked to 25.6% as a reliever (however, his BB% spiked to 11.9%). He starts the season in Triple-A Iowa.

Wesneski will be back. His future role is to be determined.

The Frankie Montas deal:

LHP Ken Waldichuk – Waldichuk has a bullpen session coming after undergoing surgery in October to address a couple of arm issues (sprained UCL/damaged flexor tendon). He is on the 60-day injured list. Last season, Oakland forced him to battle through his struggles (5.36 ERA/5.30 FIP in 141 innings) and we’ll see if that pays off going forward.

RHP Luis Medina – Medina is on the 15-day injured list to address a right knee MCL sprain. Like Waldichuk, Oakland gave him the ball and told him to run with it in 2023. He finished the season with a 5.42 ERA (4.76 FIP) over 109.2 innings. The inconsistency that plagued him with the Yankees continued. In June, he owned a 25/21 K/BB over 26 innings. In July, he improved that to 27/5 over 22 innings. August/September? 30/21 over 34 innings. The tantalizing talent remains but can he harness it?

LHP JP Sears – Sears went 5-14 with a 4.54 ERA (5.15 FIP) in 172.1 innings last year, allowing 34 home runs. He didn’t fare well in his first outing in 2024. For a pitcher like Sears, Oakland seems like a good place to be. He is just good enough to continue to accumulate service time.

IF Cooper Bowman – Bowman went 5-for-16 in spring training following his .262/.358/.435 line in 319 Double-A plate appearances. He stole 35 bases in 38 attempts. Bowman played primarily second base with a handful of games at shortstop and a game in center.

The Athletics received three pitchers who ate considerable innings in 2023. Whether they become a part of their future remains to be seen. Bowman has MLB potential in some capacity.

The Greg Allen deal:

RHP Diego Hernandez – Hernandez spent 2023 on the injured list and has yet to pitch in the Red Sox organization. He is 19 years old.

The Keynan Middleton deal:

RHP Juan Carela – Between the Yankees and White Sox High-A affiliates, Carela pitched to a 3.58 ERA in 115.2 innings with a 136/43 K/BB. The Yankees likely traded him due to his Rule 5 status. However, he wasn’t protected by the White Sox and slipped through.

Carela isn’t an upside pitcher, but the White Sox did fine in acquiring him for a rental reliever.

The Alex Verdugo deal:

RHP Richard Fitts – Fitts, who has a bulldog mentality, had a solid season in Somerset, pitching to a 3.48 ERA in 152.2 innings. He is ranked 12th on the Red Sox prospects list (Pipeline). I would be surprised if Fitts doesn’t make it to MLB as he is a relatively “safe” pitching prospect.

RHP Nicholas Judice – The 22-year-old Judice hasn’t made his professional debut. He was drafted in the 8th round by the Yankees in the 2023 draft out of Louisiana-Monroe.

RHP Greg Weissert – Weissert is in the Red Sox bullpen, where he has tossed three scoreless innings with a 4/1 K/BB to start his campaign. If the walks remain low, he can be effective. Can he do that, though?

The Juan Soto deal:

RHP Drew Thorpe – Thorpe was flipped to the White Sox when the Padres acquired Dylan Cease in mid-March. Using his advanced changeup to his advantage, Thorpe went 14-2 with a 2.52 ERA and an 182/38 K/BB over 139.1 innings between Hudson Valley/Somerset in 2023. His performance was enough to earn him the Minor League Pitching Prospect of the Year award.

RHP Jhony Brito – Brito was a useful utility arm for the Yankees in 2023. His first four appearances for the Padres haven’t gone well (six runs in four innings).

RHP Randy Vasquez – Vasquez started the season in Triple-A after a decent showing for the Yankees last year (2.87 ERA/4.98 FIP in 37.2 innings).

RHP Michael King – I am including King because he was a part of the package, even though he is no longer a prospect. King is having trouble locating to begin this season (ten walks in 7.1 innings) but a pitcher with his talent (2.88 ERA (3.13 FIP) in 219 innings between 2021-2023) is unlikely to suddenly “lose” it). Whether or not he truly is a starter or better off in the multi-inning relief role is to be determined.

The Victor Gonzalez/Jorbit Vivas deal:

SS Trey Sweeney – The Yankees’ first-round pick in 2021 started the season in Triple-A Oklahoma City for the Dodgers. He is 3-for-15 with a homer and five walks. He went 6-for-20 in spring training. While there has been talk about moving Sweeney off of shortstop in the past, he has yet to play a professional game elsewhere.

The Caleb Ferguson deal:

RHP Christian Zazueta – The Yankees acquired two left-handed relievers from the Dodgers. In this deal, they gave up Matt Gage (since released by the Dodgers) and Zazueta. Zazueta has pitched the last two years in the DSL, compiling a 4.54 ERA and 75/22 K/BB over 73.1 innings.

The Jon Berti deal:

OF John Cruz – The intriguing teenager hit 15 home runs in 426 PA between the DSL/FCL in 2022-2023. Last season, his performance created a buzz, as he compiled a .907 OPS in 48 games. He is a good long-term “get” for the Marlins.

The Clayton Andrews deal:

RHP Joshua Quezada – This was your prototypical lottery ticket for a depth player move. Quezada is a teenager who pitched to a 3.69 ERA in 46.1 innings in the DSL in 2023. That was his professional debut.

The Cody Morris deal:

OF Estevan Florial – Florial, who was around the organization forever, won his freedom this winter. After an 8-for-52 spring, he made the Guardians’ Opening Day roster (it was either that or expose him to waivers). So far, he is 1-for-7 with a triple and stolen base.

Others:

RHP Mitch Spence – The Athletics chose Spence in the Rule 5 draft. Last year, he tossed the most innings in minor league baseball (163) while compiling a 4.47 ERA (5.21 FIP) and 21.8% K rate. Spence made the Athletics’ roster out of spring training (rather than returned to the Yankees) and has appeared in a pair of games.

RHP Matt Sauer – Another Rule 5 loss, Sauer was chosen by the Royals. So far, he has appeared in one game, tossing a scoreless inning. Sauer received some notariety on August 25, 2022, when he struck out 17 batters for the Somerset Patriots.

RHP Carson Coleman – The 25-year-old Coleman (also selected in the Rule 5 draft) had some buzz as a Yankees’ relief prospect after a solid 2022 campaign. However, a shoulder injury cost him all of 2023 and he is currently on the 60-day IL for the Rangers.

LHP Matt Krook – The groundball-heavy Krook had a rough time in his 2023 MLB debut. The Yankees traded him to Baltimore for cash this past winter and he is currently at Triple-A Norfolk.

UTIL Oliver Dunn – The Phillies went crazy in the minor league phase of the 2022 Rule 5 draft, selecting seven players. The seventh player was Dunn, an 11th-round pick by the Yankees in 2019.  Acquired by the Brewers from the Phillies over the winter, he made the roster out of spring training and is 3-for-12 with an RBI in four games. He is primarily a 2B/3B type, though he has played some SS and LF.

1B Eric Wagaman – Wagaman was chosen by the Angels in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. Now 26, he hit .320/.382/.500 in 35 games for Somerset in 2023.

C/1B Mickey Gasper – Taken by the Red Sox in the minor league phase, Gasper hit. 269/.388/.423 in 52 games for Somerset. He struggled in 22 games for Scranton. Gasper has hit for average and taken walks in the minors, setting himself up as someone with a real shot to make it.

RHP Michael Gomez – Taken by the Rays in the minor league phase, Gomez is at their Triple-A affiliate in Durham.

3B Marcos Cabrera – Taken by the Pirates in the minor league phase, Cabrera has 31 homers in 1,022 career plate appearances. While there might be some pop to tap into, the rest of his offensive game needs work. He is a .219/.328/.386 career hitter with a 30.4% K rate.

Yankees MILB 3/31: Brandon Lockridge: 2 Hits, BB, SB

News:

LHP Nick Ramirez was designated for assignment after the Yankees promoted LHP Tanner Tully to the big league club. Just in case you missed the news, Tully replaces Clayton Beeter, who will now get regular rotation turns in Scranton until he is needed again. While I think Beeter’s future might be in the bullpen, there isn’t a need to put him there permanently now. Plus, who says I’m right? I am wrong more than I am right. I am just not afraid to admit it.

“Why Tully?”

It’s simple: 1. He has a starter’s pedigree, so he can eat innings out of the bullpen as needed; 2. He is expendable. If he has to pitch four innings out of the bullpen, he can be designated for assignment the next day. That sounds harsh, but for many MLB players, this is their way to earn some paychecks.

Not that Will Warren was available anyway, but you aren’t going to add him to the 40-man roster for this purpose.

RHP Yorlin Calderon was added to the roster with the need for an arm in Scranton. He made an appearance in today’s game. Further information is in his blurb below.

Ramirez being designated for assignment may seem like a surprise. In 32 games (40.2 IP) for the big club last year, he compiled a solid 2.66 ERA and 2.94 FIP. With the need for relief arms throughout baseball, I will be surprised if he isn’t claimed. However, I’ve been surprised many times before.

Scranton (2-1) (Lost to Buffalo, 4-3)

RF Luis Gonzalez: 1-for-5, 3B (1), RBI, RS, 3 K
DH Caleb Durbin: 1-for-3, RBI, 2 BB, SB (2)
Durbin is off to a 4-for-12 start with a pair of doubles, 4 RBI, and two stolen bases.
1B Carlos Narvaez: 0-for-4, BB, K
The Yankees need first base depth. Narvaez played 16 games at the position last year and started a game today. As stated the other day, he is also the organization’s #3 catcher.
CF Everson Pereira: 1-for-4, K
2B Kevin Smith: 0-for-4, 2 K
3B Jordan Groshans: 2-for-4, 2B (1)
SS Jeter Downs: 1-for-3, RS, SAC
C Josh Breaux: 1-for-4, K
LF Brandon Lockridge: 2-for-3, 2B (2), RBI, RS, BB, SB (4)
Lockridge is off to a 3-for-6 start with a pair of doubles, three walks, and four stolen bases.

RHP Cody Morris: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 4 K
The Yankees acquired the 27-year-old Morris from Cleveland for Estevan Florial. He owns a 3.41 ERA in 31.2 career MLB innings (13 games/5 starts) with a 32/18 K/BB. As expected, Florial made the Guardians’ Opening Day roster (just like when he was with the Yankees, he would need to go through waivers if they decide to send him down). 
LHP Oddanier Mosqueda: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 1 K
RHP Yorlin Calderon: 3.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K, HR
Calderon is 22 years old and hadn’t pitched above High-A until today. In 2022, in his Low-A debut, Calderon tossed a 7-inning no-hitter. This could be a situation where Scranton needed an arm for a day, and he was readily available to provide that. Calderon doesn’t appear on many (if any) Top 30 lists, but he did receive a blurb on the Fangraphs list last year, where he was praised for his breaking ball and potential to add velocity.
LHP Clayton Andrews: (L, 0-1)  1.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
The organizational debut for Andrews, who the Yankees acquired for minor league RHP Joshua Quezada. He didn’t have any fun in his MLB debut last season (27.00 ERA in four games), but he pitched well for their Triple-A affiliate. Walks appear to be an issue, but he did touch 95.4 on the gun today. That’s valuable for an LHP if you can figure out everything else.
RHP Dennis Santana: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K
Santana allowed two inherited runners to score.

Somerset (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

Hudson Valley (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

Tampa (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

FCL (0-0)

The season starts on 5/4.

DSL (0-0)

It will be a while before their season starts!

Yankees MILB 3/30: Cody Poteet: 4 Scoreless Innings

News:

I have nothing interesting to report.

Scranton (2-0) (Defeated Buffalo, 4-3)

CF Greg Allen: 0-for-4, K
3B Caleb Durbin: 1-for-4, 2B (2), K
I mentioned Durbin’s speed and versatility yesterday. What did I leave out? His insane (in a good way) strikeout rate. In 22 games for Hudson Valley, he struck out at a 9.3% rate. “OK, so what did he do in the higher minors? Haha! Bet it wasn’t so great!” The answer: 4.6% in 47 games for Somerset. Amongst all minor leaguers with at least 250 PA, his 6.2% combined rate was second to 27-year-old Ernie Clement (Toronto).  FYI: I wrote that blurb before his fourth AB, where…of course, he struck out.
C Carlos Narvaez: 0-for-3, RS, BB, K
LF Everson Pereira: 1-for-3, RS, CS (1), BB, K
Pereira hit a 102.7 MPH bullet for an out. The hit? 30.2 MPH.
1B Jose Rojas: 1-for-2, 2B (1), 2 RBI, RS, 2 BB
  PR Brandon Lockridge: 0-for-0, RS, SB (3)
  1B Jordan Groshans: 0-for-0
SS Kevin Smith: 2-for-4, RBI, K
Game-winning RBI single in the 9th.
RF Luis Gonzalez: 1-for-3, 2B (1), SF, RBI, K
Is Brian Cashman trolling us by signing a player named Luis Gonzalez?
DH Josh Breaux: 0-for-3, 2 K
Breaux has 67 home runs in 316 minor league games. The power isn’t in question – the rest of his offensive game (plus his position) are questions. 
2B Josh VanMeter: 0-for-3, 2 K
VanMeter is a depth utility player. His bat hasn’t done much in his MLB career (.206/.293/.347 in 841 PA). His 39.00 ERA in three games doesn’t make him the ideal Isiah Kiner-Falefa replacement either.

RHP Cody Poteet: 4 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K
Poteet, signed as a free agent over the winter, is on the 40-man roster. The 29-year-old has 19 games of MLB experience (9 starts) between 2021-2022 with the Marlins. He posted a 4.45 ERA. Today, he featured his 4-seamer (27%), sinker (29%), and change (27%) while mixing in some curves (10%) and sweepers (6%).
RHP Duane Underwood Jr.:  2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 2 HR
Underwood is no stranger to professional baseball, given that his debut was in 2012. Players like him tend to bounce around, but the Yankees are only his third organization (Cubs, Pirates). He has 144 games of MLB experience between 2018-2023, compiling a 4.63 ERA (4.08 FIP) in 144 games. Not bad for a depth guy.
LHP Anthony Misiewicz: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K
If you hung around for the entire 2023 season (you are forgiven if you didn’t), you will recognize Misiewicz, who pitched in three games for the big club.
RHP Yerry De Los Santos: (W, 1-0) 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
De Los Santos was a dark horse to make the MLB roster at the beginning of spring training. He (typically) keeps the ball on the ground, which we know Matt Blake loves.

Somerset (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

Hudson Valley (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

Tampa (0-0)

The season starts on 4/5.

FCL (0-0)

The season starts on 5/4.

DSL (0-0)

It will be a while before their season starts!

Yankees MILB 3/29: Opening Day!

Notes:

C/1B Ben Rice appears to be starting his campaign in Somerset. The left-handed slugger hit .327/.401/.648 in 222 PA for Somerset last year, so hopefully this is temporary.

Scranton (1-0) (Defeated Buffalo, 12-8)

CF Greg Allen: 2-for-4, HR (1), RBI, 3 RS, 2 SB (2)
Allen starts the season off with a lead-off home run. If they need a player in a pinch, he will be on the list of early call-ups.
2B Caleb Durbin: 2-for-5, 2B (1), 3 RBI, RS, HBP, SB (1)
Durbin is somewhere on the MLB depth chart. He has speed and versatility. Last season, he stole 36 bases in 69 games (an injury kept him out of action for a while)
C Carlos Narvaez: 2-for-4, 2B (1), SF, 3 RBI, BB
Narvaez is often overlooked, but stop doing that. He is our #3 catcher, after all.
LF Everson Pereira: 2-for-6, HR (1), 2 RBI, RS, 3 K
Pereira didn’t have a great start to his MLB career but is in the #5 outfielder mix.
DH Jose Rojas: 1-for-4, HR (1), RBI, RS, 2 BB, 2 K
The veteran utility type hasn’t played in MLB since 2022. He is depth.
SS Kevin Smith: 1-for-5, BB, K
Smith has MLB experience but isn’t much of a bat.
1B Jordan Groshans: 0-for-4, RS, BB, 2 K
Groshans was a Pipeline and Prospectus Top 100 prospect as recently as 2022 (Baseball America listed him in 2021). In 17 games for the 2022 Marlins, he hit .262/.308/.311 with a homer. They are taking a flyer here.
3B Jeter Downs: 2-for-4, 2 RS, SB (1), BB, K
A main piece in the trade that sent Mookie Betts to the Dodgers, Downs has yet to live up to the hype. Like with Groshans, you take a flyer. If it doesn’t work out, you have some minor-league depth.
RF Brandon Lockridge: 1-for-3, 2B (1), 2 RBI,  2 RS, 2 BB, 2 SB (2)
I often talk about Lockridge having a Tim Locastro-like ceiling, and I still believe that. Will he ever be a Yankee? I don’t know – but, just like Oliver Dunn (former Yankees prospect who made the Brewers’ roster out of spring training), he can find opportunities elsewhere in the future.

RHP Will Warren: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, HR
A tough first outing, but we’ll let it slide given the weather. It would be a surprise if he didn’t make his MLB debut this season. He would require a 40-man roster move.
LHP Josh Maciejewski: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K
Maciejewski has been in the system since 2018, filling a variety of roles. Last year, however, he was a reliever for all 30 of his appearances.
LHP Oddanier Mosqueda: (W, 1-0)  1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
RHP Danny Santana: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
I don’t even need to describe who Santana is – this line does it for you.
RHP Ron Marinaccio: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K
It would be great if Marinaccio got back on track.
LHP Nick Ramirez: 2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
Ramirez is on the 40-man and could be on the shuttle this season.

Somerset (0-0)

Season starts on April 5th.

Hudson Valley (0-0)

Season starts on April 5th.

Tampa (0-0)

Season starts on April 5th.

FCL (0-0)

DSL (0-0)

NCAA Basketball: My Final Field of 68

My final field of 68 is below. Teams in bold and italics are the bubble squads.

If you don’t want to go through all of it, here is my bubble:
In: Dayton, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Texas A&M, TCU, Seton Hall
Out: St. John’s, Oklahoma, Virginia, Indiana State

This is not an easy bubble to sort through. You can find points and counterpoints for every team above. Seton Hall has a high NET. The Pirates also beat UConn and Marquette, went 2-1 against St. John’s, and played a 3-OT game against Creighton that had its share of controversy.
So, what works against them?  They didn’t play well in the non-conference. So, how do you weigh neutral court losses to Iowa and USC against going 13-7 in the Big East? Like every team, they could only play DePaul and Georgetown twice. Their other nine wins are quality.

Meanwhile, St. John’s has a better NET and a non-conference win over Utah. However, when it came to playing UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, they went 1-5 on top of their 1-2 mark against Seton Hall.  This is a case where Seton Hall, by a whisker, outshines St. John’s despite the Red Storm’s better NET.

Oklahoma and TCU required a similar scrub. Neither team played a strong non-conference slate. TCU has an extra Quad 1 win, a slightly better NET, and nine neutral/road wins (Oklahoma has six). Both teams could be in, but Oklahoma’s resume is not quite there.

Indiana State, in many years, would get heavy consideration. I don’t see them surviving all the weekend chaos. Dayton and Florida Atlantic? Let’s say that Florida Atlantic should thank the basketball gods for that win over Arizona. However, the Owls also defeated Texas A&M, a team that improved their resume late.

Full field:

Atlantic Sun (1):
Auto: Stetson

America East (1):
Auto: Vermont

AAC (2):
Auto: UAB
In: Florida Atlantic
Out: South Florida

A-10 (2):
Auto: Duquesne
In: Dayton 

Atlantic Coast (4):
Auto: North Carolina State
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Out: Virginia, Wake Forest, Pitt

Big 12 (8)
Auto: Iowa State
In; Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas, Texas, TCU 
Out: Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Kansas State

Big East (4)
Auto: UConn
In: Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall
Out: St. John’s, Providence, Villanova, Butler

Big Sky (1)
Auto: Montana State

Big South (1)
Auto: Longwood

Big Ten (6)
Auto: Illinois
In: Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State
Out: Iowa, Ohio State

Big West (1)
Auto: Long Beach State

CAA (1)
Auto: Charleston

Conference USA (1)
Auto: Western Kentucky

Horizon (1)
Auto: Oakland

Ivy League (1)
Auto: Yale
Out: Princeton

Metro (1)
Auto: St. Peter’s

Mid-American (1)
Auto: Akron

MEAC (1)
Auto: Howard

Missouri Valley (1)
Auto: Drake
Out: Indiana State

Mountain West (6)
Auto: New Mexico
In: San Diego State, Nevada, Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State

Northeast (1)
Auto: Wagner

Ohio Valley (1)
Auto: Morehead State

Pac-12 (4)
Auto: Oregon
In: Arizona, Washington State, Colorado
Out: Utah

Patriot (1)
Auto: Colgate

SEC (8)
Auto: Auburn
In: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M 

Southern (1)
Auto: Samford

Southland (1)
Auto: McNeese

SWAC (1)
Auto: Grambling

Summit (1)
Auto: South Dakota State

Sun Belt (1)
Auto: James Madison

West Coast (2)
Auto: Saint Mary’s
In: Gonzaga

WAC (1)
Auto: Grand Canyon

#1 seeds (in order):
UConn, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina

North Carolina over Arizona because:
– Nine Quad 1 wins (Arizona has eight)
– Zero Quad 3/4 losses (Arizona has one)

Arizona’s counterpoint:
– Better NET (4th vs. 7th)
– Better KenPom (6th vs. 9th)
– Better non-conference schedule

Arizona gets neutralized because one of their most impressive non-conference wins (road against Duke) is counteracted by North Carolina going 2-0 against Duke.

North Carolina over Iowa State because:
– The non-conference schedule ranking is absurd. No matter which computer you use, North Carolina’s non-conference schedule is approximately 300 places better than Iowa State’s. It’s a testament to how well Iowa State played in the Big 12 (plus winning the tournament) that they are even in a #1 seed conversation.

Iowa State’s counterpoint:
– 16 Quad 1 games (10-6). North Carolina had 12 (9-3)
– Won the Big 12 conference tournament. The Big 12 has widely been considered the best conference in basketball.
– Their two wins over Houston were of higher difficulty than North Carolina’s two wins over Duke.

The NET and KenPom rankings are close, with North Carolina a hair better in the NET and Iowa State a few hairs better in the KenPom.

This all comes down to whether the committee values a tougher non-conference schedule vs. the team that won the toughest conference.

I am going with the former.

 

 

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Ivy League

History: Until 2017, the Ivy League awarded their automatic bid to the regular-season champions. In the five tournaments played starting in 2017 (remember, the 2020 and 2021 tournaments were canceled), Princeton and Yale have won two apiece. The other title went to Penn. Three champions entered the tournament as the #2 seed, while two entered as the #1 seed.

While the Ivy League has some history in the NCAA Tournament, last year’s Princeton squad was the first to win an NCAA Tournament game in the Ivy League Tournament Era. Cornell has never won the tournament, but their 2010 regular-season title catapulted them to the Sweet 16 as a #12 seed.

Returning Champion: Princeton

Losing the tie-breaker to Yale, the Tigers entered the tournament as the #2 seed. They defeated the Bulldogs by nine before pulling off a major NCAA Tournament upset, defeating Arizona in the 15-vs-2 game.

Format:  Four of the eight teams make the compressed field. With Brown earning the #4 seed this year, only two teams have never qualified: Dartmouth (at least they can unionize), and Columbia.

Favorite:  Princeton (24-3, 12-2)

The Tigers were in the early bubble discussion, but a pair of in-conference road losses shattered those dreams. However, their #48 NET ranking is better than South Carolina, Northwestern, Virginia, Utah, Ohio State, and Seton Hall. The KenPom ranks them 56th, and they have the 28th most efficient offense in the nation.

They didn’t play any Quad 1 games, though they did defeat Rutgers on a neutral court and Hofstra/Duquesne on the road. You may laugh at those two wins, but they are in Quad 2, while the Rutgers win sits in Quad 3. Two sophomores lead the way, as guard Xaivian Lee averages 17.7 points/5.9 rebounds/3.7 assists while forward Caden Pierce averages 16.3/9.3/3.2. They commit only 8.1 turnovers (362nd) and try to kill you with volume 3-point shooting (their 10.5 makes per game rank 9th).

If they are in the lead late, fouling them is nearly fruitless as they shoot 81.3% from the line, the second-best number in the nation.

Contenders: Cornell (22-6, 11-3), Yale (20-9, 11-3), Brown (12-17, 8-6)

Live Long Shot:  None, as only four teams make it.

Preview:

As dominant as Princeton may appear, Cornell and Yale each came within a game of matching them. The three top teams all split with each other. The tie-breaker for the #2 seed came down to computer rankings. Does it matter? No, as the tournament is played on a neutral court (Columbia). The tiebreaker is all about which team gets to wear their home uniforms.

Cornell played Syracuse within 11 on the road and defeated Patriot League juggernaut Colgate by 13 at home. Their win over Princeton (83-68) easily outshines their loss (79-77). While Princeton is as efficient as any team in the country, Cornell piles up the points (83.0; 16th). The Big Red has an incredible 62.7% rate from 2-point range, the top number in the nation. While only two players average double-digits, six players average 8.8+ points. Instead of a star, they are a collection of solid players. You can see why they are tough to beat.

Yale was pesky in the non-conference. One may not brag about a pair of 15-point losses, but they came on the road against Gonzaga and Kansas. The 2-vs-3 game against Cornell promises to be good, as they defeated Cornell by two and lost to them by three. Five players average between 10.0 and 14.4 points. 7’0″ sophomore forward Danny Wolf averages 14.4 points/9.7 rebounds. Additionally, the big guy shoots 35.7% from three.

Brown is the misfit in the field, but don’t tell them that. Percentage-wise, they have the third-worst record in the conference, but they cruised to the #4 seed by three games over Harvard.  They finished the regular season on a 6-game winning streak. They defeated Cornell and Yale on the road during the streak. Yes, one of the reasons why Cornell and Yale couldn’t keep up with Princeton was because they lost to Brown.  Kino Lilly is an Ivy League scoring machine, averaging 18.4 points. He relies on volume, as he shoots 38.6% from the field.

Bottom Line:

Brown is hot but didn’t fare well against their first-round opponent (Princeton). The hard way to choose the winner would be to “guess” who wins the Cornell-Yale game and pick them to dethrone Princeton.

Winner: Why not be daring? I pick Cornell to defeat Yale and Princeton to take the title.

Conference Tournament Preview: Pac-12

History: The history is strong but will never be the same and is likely dead after this season. Only two teams (Washington State and Oregon State) were left behind during a mass exodus. Both schools will be affiliate members of the WCC next season, adding extra competition for St. Mary’s and Gonzaga.

The Pac-12 ran four tournaments between 1987 and 1990 but didn’t return to a tournament format until 2002.  Arizona has the most titles (9) while four schools have never cut down the nets (Utah, Arizona State, Washington State, and California). No team has won the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments in the same season.

Returning Champion: Arizona

In a mostly chalk tournament, the #2 Wildcats took down #1 UCLA, 61-59, in the championship. Looking like a potential Final Four contender, they tumbled against Princeton in a 15-vs-2 game. I cringe when people mention that being the #1 or #2 seed out West doesn’t matter. The way #15 seeds have routinely won in recent years should tell us that it does matter.

Format:  All 12 teams make the field, with teams seeded 1-4 automatically placed into the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Arizona (24-7, 15-5)

In a battle for the top seed out west with Tennessee and (maybe) North Carolina, the Wildcats’ biggest failure was losing five games in a not-so-deep power conference. Outside the conference, they showed their worth by beating Duke (road), Michigan State (neutral), Alabama (neutral), and Wisconsin (home).

Their top-flight offense (#8 in efficiency and #3 in scoring (89.5)) is what drives them. They shoot 49.2% from the field (14th) and 37.4% from three (23rd). They distribute and rebound well, ranking first in assists and second in rebounding. 7’0″ center Oumar Ballo averages a double-double (13.1 points/10.0 rebounds) while senior guard Caleb Love averages 18.7 points. Their combination of experience and explosiveness makes me wonder why they aren’t better. Not that a potential #1 seed is “bad,” but a team with this talent level shouldn’t lose five Pac-12 games.

Contenders: Washington State (23-8, 14-6), Colorado (22-9, 13-7), Oregon (20-11, 12-8)

Live Long Shot:  USC (14-17, 8-12)

Preview:

Washington State had a chance to shock the college basketball world. The Cougars swept Arizona (shocking in its own right) and seemed poised to take the regular-season title. However, weird losses to California, Arizona State, and Washington (home) derailed their plan. This is still a success story, however. They are ranked 45th in the KenPom, with an offense that ranks 53rd and a 29th-ranked defense. Four players average double-digits, including freshman Myles Rice (15.3) and senior forward Isaac Jones (15.4). They won six Quadrant 1 games, including a neutral-court win over Boise State. It’s not a “National Champions” profile, but a sneaky run to the Elite Eight seems possible.

Colorado needed to get hot to keep their at-large chances alive, and they did just that. The Buffaloes finished 6-0, including wins against fellow bubblers Utah and Oregon (road). Junior guard KJ Simpson is a handful, averaging 19.6 points/5.5 rebounds/4.9 assists. He shoots at a 45.1% clip from three-point range. In his first two years, he shot 25.4% and 27.6%. If they want to feel safe in their at-large quest, they cannot afford to lose to the winner of the Utah-Arizona State game.

Oregon is on the list because they received a bye. It is hard to envision the #4 seed getting past Arizona in a potential semi-final matchup, especially since Oregon‘s play hasn’t been inspiring. After starting 5-0 in conference play, they have been unable to get into a consistent groove.

USC has talent to burn, including top freshman Isaiah Collier (16.6 points/4.2 assists), who missed a chunk of time from mid-January into February. Bronny James, the son of Lebron, didn’t come out firing in his freshman year, averaging 4.8 points/2.8 rebounds/2.3 assists as mainly a bench piece. The Trojans ended the season on a 5-2 run, including wins over Utah and Arizona. The losses were to Colorado (double overtime) and Washington State (by three on the road). Usually, I discount highly talented teams that didn’t win, but the Pac-12 isn’t exceptionally strong, opening up a potential path. If they get past Washington (no easy feat) in the 8-9 game, a return date with Arizona commences.

Bottom Line:

I badly want to pick USC. I should do it since nobody would remember the silliness a week from now. Can they piece everything together for four more games and steal an NCAA Tournament bid? Or will they flame out against a good Washington team that has its sights set on making a run?

Winner: I’m not that big of a risk taker, but I open up the possibility that Arizona could be upset early in this tournament.  Washington State is my pick.

Conference Tournament Preview: AAC

History: The AAC is in constant churn. In the first year of the league (2013-2014), UConn gave the league instant credibility, using a second-place finish in the conference tournament to catapult them to winning the NCAA Tournament. UConn has since left for the Big East, while Louisville (who won the inaugural tournament – later vacated) is now in the ACC.

Raiding by bigger conferences has hit the AAC hard, as Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati bolted for the Big 12, while SMU is on its way to the ACC starting next season.

That said, what is leftover is still a good basketball league – albeit, not one that will ever be in the upper tier anymore.

Returning Champion: Memphis

The Tigers stood up to the 10,000-pound gorilla, beating heavily favored Houston in the title game. In their other two games, Houston allowed only 94 points. Memphis scored 75 in the championship.

That didn’t get them far, as they lost to Florida Atlantic in an 8-vs-9 heartbreaker in the first round. We all know what Florida Atlantic did from there.

Format:  All 14 squads make the field, with teams seeded 1-4 automatically advancing to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Florida Atlantic (24-7, 14-4)

The Owls made a strong impression in their first year. They earned quality wins when they swept through the ESPN Invitational (Butler, Texas A&M, and Virginia Tech). However, their biggest win was a monster, as they defeated Arizona in double overtime on a neutral court. A few weird losses (Bryant, Florida-Gulf Coast) suppressed their NET. Both losses are in Quadrant 4. I think they are safely in the NCAA Tournament. They just made it harder on themselves.

Four juniors lead the way, with 6’4″ guard Johnell Davis (18.2 points/6.3 rebounds/3.1 assists) and 7’1″ forward Vladislav Goldin (15.2 points/6.8 rebounds/1.6 blocks) playing a solid two-man game.  Their offense ranks 14th in efficiency and 15th in points (83.0). Defense can be their downfall at times.

Contenders: South Florida (23-6, 16-2), Charlotte (19-11, 13-5), UAB (20-11, 12-6), Memphis (22-9, 11-7), SMU (20-11, 11-7)

Live Long Shot:  North Texas (17-13, 10-8)

Preview:

While Florida Atlantic is the best team, South Florida was the surprise conference champion. While their overall resume doesn’t scream “at-large,” the Bulls used a 15-game winning streak (which included wins over every contender listed above) to take down the title. They are a solid defensive team that allows 68.6 points and 30.9% shooting from three-point range (31st lowest). While their one Quad 1 win and three Quad 3/4 losses will keep them out of the Big Dance at-large discussion, they are dangerous enough to earn their way there.

Charlotte and UAB are lumped together. I didn’t list them initially as contenders, but how can I leave out two teams who are a win away from being in the semifinals? That’s the advantage of earning the #3 and #4 seeds. Charlotte has a win over Florida Atlantic, the team they could face in that semifinal. That win was the start of an 8-game winning streak. However, they slumped to a 5-4 finish. The 49ers rank 356th in adjusted tempo, averaging only 69.2 points (they allow 65.9).  There are many ways to win – Charlotte chooses the “limit possessions” method. UAB has six Quadrant 2 wins, including an overtime conquest of Florida Atlantic. The Blazers are 77th in offensive efficiency, averaging 77.3 points. 6’9″ junior forward Yaxel Lendeborg averages a double-double (13.7 points/10.4 rebounds) while junior guard Eric Gaines dishes out 5.4 assists. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, but at least they know their limitations as they don’t attempt many of them.

Memphis looks like an NCAA Tournament team, but their profile says differently. Their non-conference wins over Michigan and Arkansas in the Battle 4 Atlantis lost their luster when those schools died on the vine. During a 4-game stretch in the non-conference, the Tigers defeated VCU (road), Texas A&M (road), Clemson, and Virginia. However, they own three Quad 3/4 losses and a middling NET (69). There are stars on this high-scoring (81.0) squad, starting with junior forward David Jones (21.7 points/7.6 rebounds). They like to wear down teams by playing a high-tempo style that can get them into trouble. Bottom line? They are reckless, which makes them scary.

SMU couldn’t get over the Quad 1 hump (0-4). Until a 1-4 finish that included a bad loss to UTSA, the Mustangs were still on the fringes of the bubble discussion. Now? They need to win this tournament. As the #6 seed, they will take on the Temple-UTSA winner for a shot at Charlotte. They defeated Charlotte by 12 in their only meeting. They are a top 50 team in defensive efficiency, allowing 67.6 points. Shooting isn’t their forte, but volume is. Thanks to being the 4th best offensive-rebounding team in the nation, they put up 63.5 attempts (19th).

North Texas is a copout pick for the long shot. The Mean Green played St. John’s within a point and Boise State within five during non-conference play. Their NET is decent, and their low-tempo, defensive style can give anyone fits. They play for the three (37.5%), and if they get hot, watch out. They are not a team you want to fall behind against.

Bottom Line:

Florida Atlantic is the best team. However, they are a team that feels vulnerable. The way this league gets multiple bids is with a Florida Atlantic loss. I am going to pick for that to happen.

Winner: Memphis

History: The league that produced UNLV‘s dominant squads from 1989-1991 is now a collection of California schools + Hawaii.

UNLV leads the way with seven conference titles. Amongst current schools, Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara have the most titles (5). Their last NCAA Tournament win was in 2019 when UC Irvine defeated Kansas State in a 13-vs-4 matchup. In 2016, Hawaii conquered a 13-vs-4 matchup when they knocked off California.

Returning Champion: UC Santa Barbara

The #2 seeded Gauchos defeated #4 Cal State Fullerton, 72-62, to take the championship. In the NCAA Tournament, as a #14 seed, they lost to Baylor by 18.

Format:  Eight of the 11 schools make it. Cal State Fullerton (14-18, 7-13) and Cal Poly (4-28, 0-20) missed the cut. UC San Diego is in their Division I transition period and is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. While many conferences allow ineligible NCAA Tournament teams to play in the conference tournament, that isn’t the case here. Despite their 15-5 conference mark (which would have been good enough for the #2 seed), UC San Diego won’t play. The tournament is played stepladder style, with the top two seeds automatically in the semifinals.

Favorite:  UC Irvine (24-8, 17-3)

The Anteaters are a respectable #73 in the NET and KenPom. They are ranked 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency and played a decent non-conference slate, where they secured a road win over USC. Additionally, they lost to San Diego State by one on the road and Utah State by ten. While efficiency isn’t their offensive strength, they use volume to score (77.7 points; 73rd in the country).

Contenders: UC Davis (19-12, 14-6), Hawaii (19-13, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  UC Santa Barbara (16-14, 9-11)

Preview:

With the Pac-12 going away, the Big West is the “conference of California.”

Most conferences allow ineligible NCAA Tournament teams to compete in their conference tournament. That is not the case in the Big West. Despite their 15-5 conference mark, UC San Diego is not eligible to play.

UC Davis is looking for their second NCAA Tournament bid. The Aggies won their final three games (Hawaii, UC San Diego (road), and Long Beach State (road)). Senior guard Elijah Pepper and junior guard Ty Johnson are mid-major monsters, averaging 20.5 and 17.6 points respectively.

Hawaii finished the season on a 7-3 run, earning themselves a first-round bye. The Rainbow Warriors lost to Nevada by six in non-conference play They are a strong premier defensive team, allowing only 4.6 made threes per contest (best in the country).

UC Santa Barbara will play Cal State Northridge in the first round, with the winner facing Hawaii. The Gauchos defeated the Rainbow Warriors twice this season. They average 75.1 points, with four players averaging double digits. At 49.4%, their field goal percentage is 8th in the country.

Bottom Line:

UC Irvine is a good team with solid metrics. However, I like UC Davis‘s star power. I will lean there in 2024.

Winner: UC Davis