Category: College Basketball

I don’t have any thoughts this week, so I will get straight to the Top 25:

1. Purdue (22-2) (1) – In addition to their inside play, the Boilermakers are third in the country in 3-point percentage (40%).
2. UConn (22-2) (2) – The tiebreaker between the Huskies and Boilermakers is Quad 4 wins (Purdue is 3-0 while UConn is 8-0)
3. Houston (21-3) (5) – The Cougars lead the nation with an 18.9 average margin of victory.
4. Tennessee (17-6) (3) – Their loss to Texas A&M was their first double-digit loss this season.
5. Marquette (18-5) (6) – Their 7-game winning streak includes five by double digits.
6. North Carolina (19-5) (4) – Their 2-2 stretch has allowed Virginia and Duke to hang around in the conference title race.
7. Arizona (19-5) (8) – The Wildcats want the top seed in the West. They are 7-3 in Quad 1 and are ranked #3 in the NET and #4 in the KenPom.
8. Kansas (19-5) (7) – The Jayhawks are 6-4 in their last ten games. One of the wins was a double-digit effort over Houston, though.
9. Iowa State (18-5) (13) – It’s all about defense for the Cyclones (3rd in adjusted defense/5th in points allowed per game)
10. Auburn (19-5) (9) – The Tigers had zero Quadrant 1 wins for much of the season but now have two.
11. Illinois (17-6) (10) – The Fighting Illini fell 2.5 games behind Purdue this week, which likely ends their dream of a regular-season conference championship.
12. Duke (18-5) (17) – It isn’t always pretty, but the Blue Devils are 13-2 in their last 15 games.
13. Baylor (17-6) (14) – A 3-point loss at Kansas is no reason for concern. Their offense is strong (4th in 3-point percentage, for example) but the defense is shaky.
14. BYU (17-6) (15) – The Cougars are solid, but own only two road wins (UCF and West Virginia). That said, they are in every game they play.
15. Creighton (17-7) (11) – The Blue Jays are better than the underperforming middle of the Big East but haven’t sustained much momentum.
16. Alabama (17-7) (16) – Their motto is “catch us if you can” – Auburn did (99-81), LSU didn’t (109-92).
17. Saint Mary’s (20-6) (21) – The Gaels play slow and aren’t efficient offensively. Defense? No team has scored 80+ on them this season.
18. South Carolina (21-3) (23) – The computers remain skeptical, but the Gamecocks keep winning.
19. Wisconsin (16-8) (12) – After three close losses in a row, the Badgers hit rock bottom in a 22-point loss to Rutgers—time to wake up.
20. Colorado State (19-5) (NR) – It’s the story of the Mountain West – every week, you can interchange who the best team in the conference is.
21. San Diego State (18-6) (24) – While they have struggled against the top of the conference in road contests, the games are close.
22. Florida Atlantic (19-5) (19) – They came within a whisker of back-to-back losses to UAB and Wichita State. They lost the former in OT but won the latter in OT.
23. Dayton (19-4) (22) – No bad losses and a strong schedule keep them ranked. The rest of the schedule isn’t so good, so they need to take advantage of that.
24. Kentucky (16-7) (18) – Their defense is bad and there may not be enough time left to fix it.
25. Indiana State (22-3) (NR) – The beasts of the Missouri Valley lack a huge win and a bad loss. Very clean resume that needs to stay that way for at-large consideration.

Dropped Out:

New Mexico (19-5) (20) – They are 1-2 in their last two games, with both losses at home.
Utah State (20-4) (25) – Honestly, it came down to Indiana State/New Mexico/Utah State for that #25 slot.

Just Missed:

Gonzaga (18-6) – The Zags had zero Quadrant 1 wins before defeating Kentucky on the road this weekend.
Virginia (19-5) – We have been waiting for a team other than Duke/North Carolina/Clemson to establish themselves as an NCAA Tournament contender. The Cavaliers are up to #32 in the NET.
Nevada (19-5) – Recent wins over Utah State and San Diego State. Can they complete the trifecta against New Mexico on Tuesday?

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/9.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [18-5 (10-2), Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 10]
Duke [17-5 (8-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 20]

Bubble:
Clemson [15-7 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 29]
Wake Forest [15-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 33]
Virginia [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 34]
Virginia Tech [13-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 54]
Pittsburgh [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 61]

North Carolina beat Duke but is 1-2 in their last three games, opening up the conference title race…
Clemson is 4-4 in road games with wins over Alabama and North Carolina. The Tigers are 3-0 in neutral court games, including a win over TCU. This is gold for the committee.
Wake Forest has six Quadrant 2 wins but has a 0-3 Quadrant 1 record. The Demon Deacons have Duke and Virginia upcoming.
Virginia is one game behind North Carolina thanks to a 7-game winning streak. The road win over Clemson helps, but I still need to see more.
Ten Quadrant 1 games bolster Virginia Tech’s resume, though they are only 3-7. Neutral court wins over Boise State and Iowa State stand out.
Pittsburgh is new to the list, as a 5-1 stretch that includes wins over Duke and Wake Forest warrants a look. They have more Quad 3 losses (2) than Quad 1 wins (1).

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [18-5 (8-2); Quad 1: 2-1; NET: 28]
SMU [15-7 (7-3); Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 45]
Memphis [17-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 77]

Florida Atlantic didn’t do themselves any favors with their loss to UAB, and their NET is going in the wrong direction. The Owls are a game behind South Florida (not a bubble team) in the AAC but own two impressive non-conference neutral court wins (Butler, Virginia Tech). For now, those games are strong Quadrant 2 wins instead of weaker Quadrant 1 wins.
SMU‘s best win is a road conquest of Florida State. Their 2/22 game at Florida Atlantic will likely make or break the Mustangs.
Memphis stopped the bleeding with wins over Wichita State and Temple. The Tigers will need to do more than that. For example, sweeping Florida Atlantic later this season.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [19-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 18]

Richmond‘s undefeated conference run came to an end, which also took them off my bubble. The Spiders lack a resume-boosting opportunity for the rest of the season, as they only played Dayton once. As for the Flyers, a NET of 16, three Quadrant 1 wins and a strong strength of schedule places them close to lock status. However, Friday night’s ugly loss to VCU exposed their vulnerability: They have little to gain but much to lose with their remaining schedule. Losing at VCU is a Quad 1 loss, so it won’t kill them. Some of their future games, however, can be damaging.

Big 12

In:
Houston [20-3 (7-3), Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 1]
BYU [16-6 (4-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 8]
Iowa State [17-5 (6-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 9]
Kansas [17-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 12]
Baylor [16-5 (6-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 14]

Bubble:
Oklahoma [17-6 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 27]
Cincinnati [15-7 (4-5); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 32]
TCU [16-6 (5-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 35]
Texas Tech [16-6 (5-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 37]
Texas [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 39]
UCF [13-8 (4-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 66]
Kansas State [15-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 78]

Six teams have three or four conference losses in the rowdy Big 12, which is one of the most competitive and impressive conferences you will ever find…Recent losses to Texas, Texas Tech, and UCF were missing opportunities for Oklahoma. Did they remedy the damage with the win over BYU?
I am not sure what to think about Cincinnati. Here comes clarity, however: Back-to-back home games against Houston at Iowa State
Butler’s recent solid play has boosted Texas Tech‘s out-of-conference schedule, even though they lost to the Bulldogs in overtime. Wins over Villanova and Michigan in the Battle 4 Atlantis were supposed to be impressive resume boosters.
If I am offended by Texas Tech’s out-of-conference schedule, my eyes should be bleeding over TCU‘s. We have a situation where their resume would be better if they were 13-9 with a strong out-of-conference slate instead of 16-6 with one of the worst non-conference schedules in college basketball.
Texas has four Quad 1 wins, three of which have come on the road (TCU, Oklahoma, Cincinnati). As stated, the committee will drool over that.
UCF and Kansas State are new additions. UCF gains some trust with the three Quadrant 1 wins but owns an awful Quad 4 loss to Stenson. The rest of their schedule is predictably brutal. Kansas State enters the conversation with their win over Kansas. That win broke a 4-game losing streak. The Wildcats have two non-conference losses (USC and Miami) which didn’t seem to be resume killers at the time. However, both teams have underachieved.

Big East

In:
UConn [21-2 (11-1); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [17-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 11]
Creighton [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 19]

Bubble:
Saint John’s [14-9 (6-6); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 43]
Villanova [12-11 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 48]
Xavier [13-10 (7-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 50]
Butler [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 51]
Providence [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [15-8 (8-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 67]

By now, I was thinking I would have at least five teams in the “In” column. Instead, the bubble is a jumbled mess. The Big East has not lived up to expectations.
Saint John‘s is running in quicksand. Their resume is clean beyond a home loss to Michigan, but they are 1-6 in Quadrant 1 conference games. For now, the win over Utah isn’t enough.
Villanova is only 1-6 in their last seven games and was swept by Saint John’s this season. A 5-2 finish gets them to 17-13 (10-9) heading into the conference tournament, where they may need to do more to get in.
Death, taxes, and Xavier making a run at an NCAA Tournament bid. The Musketeers have three straight wins and start a stretch of games against Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. Can they at least split those games?
Butler was able to play UConn within nine on the road. The Bulldogs earned home wins over Marquette and Creighton plus a home non-conference victory over Texas Tech. Like with Xavier, we will learn more soon as they play a 6-game gauntlet against Providence, Marquette, Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Saint John’s.
Providence has only one impressive road win (Seton Hall), which will be held against them in the committee room. They are 6-8 in Quadrant 1/2. The lack of bad losses helps keep them afloat.
Seton Hall couldn’t help themselves in their last two games, but they could have severely hurt themselves. They took care of business by beating DePaul and Georgetown.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [21-2 (10-2); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [17-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [16-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Michigan State [14-9 (6-6); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 24]
Northwestern [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 55]
Nebraska [16-8 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 57]
Iowa [13-10 (5-7); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 64]

The top three should feel safe, even if Wisconsin lost to Michigan. 17 of their 23 games are in Quadrant 1/2 and they own a 10-7 mark in those games.
Once you think Michigan State is putting everything together, they lose to Minnesota. The Spartans own a massive 24-point win over Baylor and a solid NET that is bolstered by a difficult schedule.
In recent weeks, Northwestern has had an overtime win over Illinois and an overtime loss to Purdue. Their final eight games are manageable, which is a double-edged sword as they likely want to win at least six of them to feel good about their resume.
In a key bubble matchup, Nebraska lost to Northwestern on the road, which followed their road overtime loss to Illinois. The Cornhuskers are 1-7 in true road games with none of those games within the Big Ten (Kansas State).
Iowa sticks around while I remove Maryland. The Buckeyes are hanging on by a string after their loss to Penn State. They must start winning some Quadrant 1 games and their two Quadrant 3 losses don’t help either.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [21-3 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 22]
Drake [18-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-1; NET: 53]
Bradley [16-7 (9-4); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 59]

There is no question that Indiana State is likely the only team that will get serious consideration for an at-large. But I want to continue to evaluate two other squads.
Indiana State is doing what they need to do. Last Saturday, they avenged their earlier loss to Drake. Now for something equally tough: Winning their final seven games. The competition isn’t good so any loss can be damaging. I am looking closely at that February 17th road game against Southern Illinois.
Drake‘s neutral court win over Nevada recently moved into the Quadrant 1 bucket, which is a nice boost.
Bradley is 11-2 in their last 13 games. The key loss during this streak was an overtime loss to Indiana State. The Braves and Drake play each other twice down the stretch.

Mountain West

Bubble:
New Mexico [19-4 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 17]
San Diego State [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 21]
Colorado State [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 26]
Utah State [19-4 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 30]
Boise State [16-7 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 40]
Nevada [19-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 46]

Can the Mountain West earn six bids? It isn’t impossible, though they will continue to eat each other. One team that isn’t listed (UNLV) has three Quadrant 1 wins but is predictably being weighed down by three Quadrant 4 losses.

New Mexico is 8-3 in road/neutral games and their current 6-1 stretch includes wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada. The Lobos are closing in on being a lock.
San Diego State played a strong non-conference slate and has kept their noses clean most of the year. One blemish is having a tough time winning road games against strong teams (Gonzaga being an exception).
Colorado State has won four in a row after a 2-4 stretch. Their next three games are San Diego State (road), Utah State (home), and New Mexico (road). These games will have major conference title and bubble ramifications.
Utah State will try to get back on track after back-to-back double-digit losses to San Diego State and Nevada. They need to prevent falling into a trap when they play road games against Wyoming, Fresno State, and San Jose State down the stretch.
You cannot overlook a team with five Quadrant 1 wins, and two Mountain West squads have accomplished that. The first team is Boise State. The Broncos played a tough non-conference schedule. After their game at Utah State on Saturday, they go through a four-game stretch where they play Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Air Force. They need to sweep those games.
Nevada, the other squad with five Quad 1 wins, beat Utah State and San Diego State back-to-back this week. The Wolf Pack play their third consecutive big game against New Mexico on Tuesday. Not many teams in the country have improved their stock more recently.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 1-4; NET: 31]
Utah [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 36]
Washington State [17-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 41]
Oregon [16-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 58]

While Arizona plays for a #1 seed out West, the rest of the conference is fighting for crumbs.
Colorado owns a top 75 out-of-conference schedule but their best wins were neutral-court triumphs over Richmond and Miami. The Buffaloes are 1-6 on the road, with their lone win over Washington. That said, they are 13-0 with a huge potential resume booster against Arizona on Saturday.
Utah also has only one road win, though it is an impressive victory against St. Mary’s. Their big chance at boosting their resume resulted in a 3-overtime home loss to Arizona on Thursday. Their remaining schedule offers an opportunity to end the regular season with a gaudy record.
Washington State is 4-3 in conference road games. They will get a shot at another one against Oregon on Saturday.
Speaking of Oregon, they cannot afford to lose that game. The winner will stay in the regular-season conference title race. Like Washington State, the Ducks own four road wins (though one of them was a random non-conference game against Florida A&M). One of their road wins was over Washington State earlier this season.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [17-5 (7-2), Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 5]
Alabama [16-7 (8-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 6]
Auburn [19-4 (8-2); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 7]

Bubble:
Kentucky [16-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 23]
Florida [15-7 (5-4); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 39]
South Carolina [20-3 (8-2); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 42]
Mississippi State [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 44]
Texas A&M [14-8 (5-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 47]
Ole Miss [18-5 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 60]

Auburn went from zero Quad 1 wins last weekend to two this weekend. As one small negative, their road loss to Appalachian State has slipped from Quadrant 1 to Quadrant 2.  Regardless, they are safely in.

Kentucky is 6-3 in road/neutral games, including a win over North Carolina. The Wildcats are 1-3 in their last four games as they welcome Gonzaga to their gym in a rare February non-conference game.
Florida was on a 4-game winning streak before their one-point loss to Texas A&M. The Gators don’t own a bad loss but there is nothing to brag about when you have a 1-7 record in Quadrant 1 games.
South Carolina is playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to prove that their gaudy record isn’t a fluke. Their 6-game winning streak includes wins over Kentucky, Tennessee (road), Georgia (road), and Ole Miss. The rest of their schedule is rough, but it’s nice to have 20 wins in your bank account heading into mid-February.
Mississippi State is 0-6 on the road but 6-0 on neutral courts. Their home wins include wins over Tennessee and Auburn. On neutral courts, they defeated fellow bubblers Northwestern and Washington State as they won the Hall of Fame Classic. It’s not a sexy or clean resume (they lost to Southern, after all), but it’s one that many teams would love to have.
Texas A&M went on the road early in the season to take on Ohio State and SMU and defeated both. Both wins bolster their Quad 1 record, which is why I implore all teams to schedule good teams in the non-conference. Ohio State and SMU may not even get to the NCAA Tournament, but the Quad 1 formula allows you to gain momentum by beating them on the road.
Ole Miss entered conference play with a 13-0 record and Top 25 ranking. Life hasn’t been as easy in the SEC, as three of their losses are by double digits. In their most recent outing, they did play a tough game at South Carolina. Now, it’s off to Kentucky for a big potential resume booster.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [20-3 (9-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 69]

How are all games intertwined? VCU’s win over Dayton on Friday helped McNeese, as their win over VCU is now a Quad 1 win. How long will that last? We’ll see as it is on the very bottom of Quad 1.
This can all be semantics, as their brutal loss at Southeastern Louisiana (Quad 4) was likely one of the final nails in the coffin.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [21-3 (9-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 62]
Appalachian State [19-5 (10-2); Quad 1: 2-0; NET: 81]

James Madison is 21-1 against teams not named “Appalachian State” including a win over Michigan State. If they didn’t lose to Southern Miss and split with Appalachian State, their resume would be tempting. But it is fair to ask if a Sun Belt team with three conference losses deserves an at-large.
Appalachian State barely stays on the list after their road loss to Texas State. It is impressive to have a pair of Quad 1 wins, but they also own two Quadrant 4 losses.

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [19-6 (10-0); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 16]
Gonzaga [17-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 25]
San Francisco [19-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 63]

St. Mary’s owns 11 straight wins, including San Francisco and Gonzaga road conquests. They own a strong non-conference schedule, winning games against New Mexico and Colorado State (road). There are six games left on the schedule. Even if they lose at home to San Francisco and Gonzaga, they should feel comfortable if they win their other four games. Those four games are against Portland, Pepperdine (twice), and San Diego. No excuses for losing any of those games.
Gonzaga had a shot at a Quad 1 win but lost at home to St. Mary’s. The Bulldogs have three Quad 1 games left, all on the road: Kentucky, San Francisco, and St. Mary’s.
San Francisco has fallen short of earning that one big win all season. They will need to sweep the rest of their games if they want any chance to get in. Included in those six games are rematches with St. Mary’s and Gonzaga plus both games against Santa Clara. The road game should fall into Quadrant 2.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [21-2 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 49]

Grand Canyon’s only hope is sweeping their remaining eight games and getting to the conference final. They defeated San Diego State (home) and San Francisco (neutral) in the non-conference, with a loss to South Carolina (neutral) looking better by the day (the loss was by eight points). It’s a fun resume as their NET is right in line with bubble teams in bigger conferences, bolstered by a solid non-conference schedule and no bad losses (the loss to Seattle is in Quadrant 2, where the Lopes are 2-1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Is Duke “finished”?

“Don’t ever count out Duke” is a familiar refrain when the NCAA Tournament starts. The Blue Devils are overflowed with talent but continue to underwhelm. During the game against North Carolina, you never felt that the Tar Heels were in trouble. In a series that rarely disappoints, Saturday’s game felt flat mostly because Duke never appeared to be in it.

Teams can turn it on during tournament time. UConn went 13-7 in Big East play last season, losing to Marquette in the semifinals of the tournament. In 2022, North Carolina was a #8 seed that fought their way to the title game. I would never count any talented team out, and it is easily forgotten that Duke is 11-2 in their last 13 games. That said, most of the wins (beyond Baylor) won’t go into the “impressive” bucket. The weakness of the ACC allows you to see a path where Duke has a shot at the conference title when North Carolina visits at the end of the season, but they have to play better to make that game meaningful.

2. The value of Quadrant 1

Only 103 schools have won a Quadrant 1 game this season (28.5%). Of those 103 schools, only ten have won at least five. That is why when you see teams winning multiple Quad 1 games, you take notice.

Some oddities/interesting facts:

UNLV has the same Quad 1 record (3-4) as NCAA Tournament locks/bubble teams Alabama, Iowa State, Illinois, Texas Tech, Clemson, and Providence.  However, the Rebels are 3-3 in Quadrant 4, losing to Loyola Marymount, Southern, and Air Force. Win those games, and they are 15-6 (6-3) and likely somewhere on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Gonzaga’s loss to St. Mary’s dropped their Quadrant 1 record to 0-5. Historically, their Quad 1 records: 2021 (12-1); 2022 (11-4); 2023: 8-5. They will get two more shots during the regular season: February 10th at Kentucky and March 2nd at St. Mary’s.

Only three teams in college basketball have zero Quad 1/Quad 2 games: Western Kentucky, Marist, and Little Rock. Meanwhile, there is one “big conference” school with zero wins outside of Quadrant 4: DePaul. The Blue Demons are 3-19 (3-3 in Quadrant 4).

Top 25:

1. Purdue (21-2) (1) – Will the Boilermakers own a 27-2 record heading into their final two games (Illinois, Wisconsin)?
2. UConn (20-2) (2) – You hadn’t yet received your Christmas gifts the last time the Huskies lost.
3. Tennessee (16-5) (5) – 14 of their 21 games in Quad 1/2 (9-5). 12-2 in the last 14 games.
4. North Carolina (18-4) (3) – Random loss to Georgia Tech aside, the Tar Heels are in firm control of the ACC after beating Duke.
5. Houston (19-3) (4) – Did Kansas find a weakness in the Cougars’ defense, or was it just a random game? Kansas Shot 68.9% from the field.
6. Marquette (17-5) (7) – We are still two weeks away from the first UConn – Marquette showdown.
7. Kansas (18-4) (15) –  The Jayhawks own wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, UConn, and Houston.
8. Arizona (17-5) (9) – A team this good shouldn’t have three losses in the watered-down Pac-12. Maybe they are bored?
9. Auburn (18-4) (12) – The Tigers finally earn their first Quad 1 win by knocking off Ole Miss. Five of their six remaining February games offer Quad 1 opportunities.
10. Illinois (17-5) (10) – The best way to describe Illinois this season is “holding steady.”
11. Creighton (16-6) (6) – One way to lose a conference title is by losing home games (Villanova, Butler).
12. Wisconsin (16-6) (8) – So close to beating Nebraska and Purdue this week. Both coin flips went the other way. Impressive 10-6 mark in Quad 1/2.
13. Iowa State (16-5) (14) – Losing by two at Baylor doesn’t hurt, especially when it follows up a stretch where you beat Houston and Kansas.
14. Baylor (16-5) (22) – Strong schedule + 6 Quadrant 1 wins. There will continue to be ebbs and flows in the Big 12.
15. BYU (16-5) (20) – Why do the NET and KenPom love them so much? Even when they lose, the games are close.
16. Alabama (16-6) (24) – The nation’s best offense is 10-1 in their last 11 games. Clocked a good Mississippi State team by 32.
17. Duke (16-5) (13) – The Blue Devils are only 5-5 in Quad 1/2. There seems to be something “missing” with this squad.
18. Kentucky (15-6) (11) – Their adjusted defense ranking is now 101st in the nation. That won’t cut it.
19. Florida Atlantic (18-4) (16) – The opportunities for big wins aren’t plentiful, so they need to do their best to avoid bad losses.
20. New Mexico (18-4) (17) – Their dominant 5-game winning streak came to an end at home against Boise State.
21. Saint Mary’s (18-6) (25) – Their win over Gonzaga gives them a clear path to the WCC title.
22. Dayton (18-3) (21) – Plenty of chances for resume-boosting Quad 2 wins remain.
23. South Carolina (19-3) (NR) – A 5-game winning streak that includes a home win over Kentucky and (especially) a road win over Tennessee makes them deserving.
24. San Diego State (17-5) (23) – The Aztecs have alternated wins and losses going back to January 9th.  The win over Utah State on Saturday keeps them ranked.
25. Utah State (19-3) (18) – 7-3 in Quad 1/2 games.

Dropped Out:

Texas Tech (16-5) (19) – Their non-conference SOS will continue to weigh them down when they lose games. They are 3-5 in Quad 1/2 and 13-0 elsewhere.

Just Missed:

Indiana State (20-3) – Seven straight wins. Avenged their only conference loss (Drake) on Saturday.
Texas (15-7) – 4-4 in Quadrant 1 games. After losing to Houston in overtime at home, they knocked down TCU on the road.
Colorado State (17-5)/Boise State (16-6) – In a complex Mountain West, it is Boise State (5) and Colorado State (4) who own the most Quadrant 1 wins.

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/2.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [17-4 (9-1), Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 9]
Duke [16-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 4-1; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Clemson [14-6 (4-5), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 33]
Virginia [16-5 (7-3), Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 44]
Virginia Tech [13-8 (5-5), Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 49]
Wake Forest [13-7 (5-4), Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 50]

Clemson doesn’t have enough capital to survive a fall into a deep abyss, but their strong non-conference schedule (which included wins over Alabama and TCU) will be held in high regard by the committee. If they win the games they are supposed to win, they will be in…Virginia has five straight wins but none of them are going to move the needle much. Their best asset is a remaining schedule that includes Clemson, Duke, and North Carolina…Wake Forest‘s NET keeps them on the fringes of contention, as does their five wins in Quadrant 2. They will need to at least split with Duke to be taken seriously…Virginia Tech has impressive wins over Boise State and (especially) Iowa State in the non-conference. They also beat Clemson at home, which currently sits in the Quad 2 bucket.

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [17-4 (7-1), Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 28]
SMU [13-7 (5-3), Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 42]
Memphis [15-6 (4-4), Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 77]

In early February, my criteria for “In” is strict. Florida Atlantic likely has nothing to worry about, however. The win over Arizona + winning the ESPN Invitational will weigh heavily in the room. However, they can’t go into an extended in-conference slump…Thanks to a solid NET, SMU has snuck into the conversation, but they are 1-6 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games. The committee will not overlook that…Memphis has lost four straight games with NET rankings of 100+, each one worse than the last one. They recently lost to Rice, who has a ranking over 200. A once solid resume has fallen into an abyss.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [18-3 (8-1), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 18]
Richmond [16-5 (8-0), Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 68]

The Atlantic 10 isn’t necessarily strong, but it does offer decent opportunities for good wins. Dayton owns three top 40 NET victories and their loss to Richmond isn’t going to hurt them. As for Richmond, they did what they needed to do by taking care of Dayton. Their issue is that they don’t play Dayton a second time. Five of their final ten games are against teams in the current NET Top 100. It would serve them well to sweep those games. Nobody said life on the bubble is easy.

Big 12

In:
Houston [19-2 (6-2), Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 1]
BYU [15-5 (3-4), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 6]
Iowa State [16-4 (5-2); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 10]
Kansas [16-4 (5-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 13]
Baylor [14-5 (4-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Oklahoma [16-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 27]
Texas Tech [16-4 (5-2); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 29]
TCU [16-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 30]
Cincinnati [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 35]
Texas [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 39]

For now, I am leaving Kansas State and UCF off the list, but they can easily enter it with some quality future wins.  I will admit that Baylor is a borderline “in” instead of “bubble,” but a 16th-ranked NET is not going to be left out. Their margin for error is simply smaller than that of a team like Houston…Oklahoma is hurt by a bad non-conference slate and a 2-4 recent record that could be suggesting a deep dive from their red-hot start. The Big 12 will continue to offer them opportunities for improvement…Texas Tech‘s non-conference slate was abysmal and they lost to a pair of Big East schools (Butler, Villanova). That said, they recently completed a tough stretch in their Big 12 slate with a 2-2 record. The wins were over BYU and Oklahoma. The loss to Houston was ugly…Sensing a theme? Oklahoma and Texas Tech are being dinged by their non-conference. Their schedule looks like a gauntlet compared to TCU, who played one of the worst non-conference slates in the country. I think the Horned Frogs have potential as a surprise exclusion without a big finish to their season…After beating BYU on 1/6, Cincinnati is 2-5. Things are about to become very dicey as their next three games are against Texas Tech, Houston, and Iowa State…Texas had two big chances at a big non-conference win and lost both (UConn and Marquette). The Longhorns are 3-5 in their last eight games. While I recognize that the committee doesn’t put much (if any) weight in that, it does show me a trend with an unforgiving month of February.

Big East

In:
UConn [19-2 (9-1); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 14]
Creighton [16-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Saint John’s [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 38]
Butler [14-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 45]
Xavier [11-10 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 48]
Villanova [11-10 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 53]
Providence [14-7 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 55]
Seton Hall [14-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 66]

The Big East was supposed to be stronger than this. They are a solid 4th in the NET, but the middle of the league isn’t nearly as strong as I thought it would be. Who will separate from the pack? St. John’s owns one good non-conference win (Utah) and lost to Michigan, Dayton (good loss), and Boston College. Their best conference win thus far was a road victory over Villanova. There is work to do…Butler is on a 4-game winning streak and owns a win over Texas Tech in the non-conference. Their biggest conquests, however, are impressive road wins over Marquette and Creighton…One of the strongest schedules in the nation is what keeps Xavier around despite the pedestrian record. That said, they are 1-2 in Quadrant 3 and desperately need to pull off big wins in February…Villanova struggled in the Big 5 Classic (0-3), which was eye-popping given their past in those games. That said, they won the Battle 4 Atlantis by defeating Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. Will the real Wildcats please stand up?… Providence has a non-conference win over Wisconsin and a few solid Big East wins (at Seton Hall, Marquette). That’s nice and all, but their 5-7 Quad 1/Quad 2 record needs some work…Seton Hall‘s season has been up and down and is currently down. They own wins over UConn and Marquette and a crazy 3-overtime loss to Creighton. Their loss to USC in the non-conference didn’t seem like a huge deal at the time, but USC’s unexpectedly poor season is hurting their resume.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [20-2 (9-2); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 2]
Wisconsin [16-5 (8-2); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 11]
Illinois [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 12]

Bubble:
Michigan State [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 22]
Nebraska [16-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 57]
Northwestern [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 58]
Iowa [13-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 62]
Maryland [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 78]

What a difference between the top three and the middle tier. I almost crossed off Iowa and Maryland, but then my alarm bells started to go off: If not them, then who? Yes, I am saying I placed them on the bubble because someone has to be there…Michigan State doesn’t have a bad loss on their resume (9-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4) but they are struggling badly against strong competition. Their two best wins are outside the Big Ten: Baylor and Indiana State (you can laugh, but the Sycamores are 24th in the NET). Within the Big Ten? Maryland (79th)…Nebraska just scored a big home comeback victory over Wisconsin, giving them a much-needed third Quadrant 1 win. They also own wins over Purdue and Northwestern. If they do the unlikely and beat Illinois on the road, it’s going to be very hard to say “no” to them…Northwestern is the other team to knock off Purdue and their four Quadrant 1 wins place them in a good position. Their major blemish was their inexcusable home loss to Chicago State…I already spoke about Iowa and Maryland. Iowa needs some Quadrant 1 conquests to even be considered. Maryland has a few of those but is only 4-6 within Quad 1/Quad 2. Work is needed.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [19-3 (10-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 24]
Drake [17-4 (9-2); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 52]
Bradley [15-6 (8-3); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 60]

When you are a mid-major, you have to take care of any chances you get to make an impression. Indiana State‘s profile is solid, but it would look better if they could have pulled an upset over Alabama or Michigan State. Their best non-conference win is over Toledo, which clinched the Big Dawgs Classic tournament. If they put together a 26-5 regular season and lose late in the conference tournament, their resume will be a debated one…Drake defeated Indiana State and plays them again this weekend. They pulled off a solid win over Nevada in the non-conference…Bradley owns one of the conference’s biggest wins, knocking off Utah State in the non-conference to go along with Vermont, a team that traditionally dominates the America East. That said, they own both a Quad 3 and Quad 4 loss.
If the season ended today, only Indiana State would get serious consideration.

Mountain West

Bubble:
New Mexico [18-4 (6-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 19]
Utah State [19-2 (7-1); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 20]
San Diego State [16-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 23]
Colorado State [16-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 32]
Boise State [15-6 (6-2); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 43]
Nevada [17-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 56]

The wacky Mountain West should get four bids with a possibility of five. New Mexico was on a 5-game winning streak that included wins over San Diego State and Utah State before succumbing to Nevada. The best way to sum up their profile is “clean.”…Utah State only has that singular Quad 1 win but is 6-0 in Quad 2. Five of their next six games are resume-boosting opportunities…San Diego State will be bolstered in that selection room by their third-best non-conference strength of schedule. They own wins over Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. In conference play, however, they have won the games they are supposed to win while struggling in tougher games…Colorado State sent out an early warning shot when they defeated Creighton. The Rams played a tough non-conference schedule which also included a win over Colorado and a close loss to St. Mary’s…Boise State‘s four Quadrant 1 wins set them up nicely for the rest of the season. The Broncos are 7-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2. They have a road trip next week to Colorado State and Utah State…Nevada picked a bad time to start losing, as they are 1-4 in their last five games. One positive is that the win is over Colorado State. The one negative is that one of the losses was against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack defeated TCU on their road to the Diamond Head Classic title.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 31]
Utah [14-7 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 34]
Washington State [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 40]
Oregon [15-6 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 51]

The Pac-12 has been Arizona and the rest, though Oregon is currently tied at the top of the conference. Colorado‘s neutral court win over Miami has taken a hit, as the Hurricanes haven’t lived up to early-season expectations. However, their win over Richmond has gained some steam as Richmond continues to play well…Utah is another team that took advantage of St. Mary’s early season struggles, as they beat them on the road. BYU was another big early-season feather in their cap. They were swept when they took a trip through Washington last week. Now, they have a three-game home stretch that includes games against Colorado and Arizona…Washington State is in the middle of a 5-1 stretch that includes wins over Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. For now, beating Utah and Colorado at home are strong Quad 2 victories instead of Quad 1 wins…Oregon beat Georgia in Las Vegas and lost by eight to Alabama in Florida. They defeated Washington State earlier in the season and can complete a sweep next week.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [15-5 (5-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 5]
Alabama [15-6 (7-1); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 7]
Auburn [17-4 (6-2); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 8]

Bubble:
Kentucky [15-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 25]
Florida [15-6 (5-3); Quad 1: 1-6; NET: 36]
Mississippi State [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 37]
South Carolina [18-3 (6-2); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 41]
Texas A&M [12-8 (3-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 46]
Ole Miss [18-3 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 59]

Let me start with Auburn. The committee loves Quad 1 wins, and they don’t have any. The committee will also see the 8th place ranking in the NET combined with the 5th place ranking in the KenPom. It’s a situation where they don’t have that big win but they are unbeaten in every other quadrant…It would take a massive crash for Kentucky to be left out. They own a neutral-court win over North Carolina but are looking for that difference-making conference win…Like Auburn, Florida struggles in Quad 1 but has piled up wins everywhere else. They have four straight wins, including their only Quad 1 win (at Kentucky) last time out…Mississippi State won the Hall of Fame Tip-off against two solid bubble teams (Washington State, and Northwestern). Within the conference, they have defeated Tennessee and Auburn. The NET will always be impacted if you lose in Quad 4, and they did just that (Southern)…South Carolina checks a lot of boxes. The 4-2 record in Quad 1 stands out. What holds them back? A poor non-conference schedule. Eight of their 18 wins are in Quad 4, and they own a loss in Quad 3. All this said they have won four in a row – including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee (on the road)…

Texas A&M has four Quad 1 wins and played a tough non-conference schedule. The committee will love that, even if they finish 18-13 in the regular season. Their home loss to Memphis didn’t look so bad until Memphis turned into a pumpkin…Ole Miss has the combination of a gaudy record and a meh non-conference slate. They have played 14 games in Quad 3/Quad 4 (14-0) and seven games in Quad 1/Quad 2 (4-3). Their remaining schedule is tough beyond two games against Missouri.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [19-2 (8-0); Quad 1: 0-1; NET: 65]

There shouldn’t be any illusion that McNeese has a great chance to get in. Their Quad 1 loss was to Louisiana Tech, a team that will not be on the bubble. They are an impressive 3-1 in Quadrant 2, the most impressive win being a road win over VCU. So, why are their chances slim (to be kind about it)? Because their best remaining opponent is Texas A&M-Corpus Christie, a team that is ranked 202nd in the NET. It’s going to be hard to improve on their current standing, but it will be rather easy to crush their resume. One conference loss will likely do them in.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [19-3 (7-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 63]
Appalachian State [18-4 (9-1); Quad 1: 2-0; NET: 73]

James Madison was the “big hope” in the mid-major world earlier in the season. Their 14-0 start included a win at Michigan State. However, they have lost three in-conference games, putting them in a place where they may be briefly discussed with little chance to make it…Appalachian State swept James Madison already and has a mightily impressive home win over Auburn (that’s right – the Tigers played a game on a mid-majors court!). Their resume would be more impressive if they didn’t lose their first two Division I gams this season (Northern Illinois and Oregon State).

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [17-6 (8-0); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]
Gonzaga [16-5 (7-1); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 26]
San Francisco [17-6 (6-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 61]

Interestingly, other than St. Mary’s, the only other team in the conference with Quad 1 wins is Santa Clara (they have two). However, their overall resume leaves them short of the bubble…St. Mary’s started slow. After their first eight games, they were 3-5 (and one of the wins was outside of Division 1). Luckily for them, most of the losses weren’t killers, as they own the 19th-best non-conference schedule that includes wins over New Mexico and Colorado State (road). The Mountain West is a good conference to target if you want a juicy non-conference ranking, and St. Mary’s scheduled five games against the league…It isn’t normal to see Gonzaga entering February without a Quad 1 win. They have won five straight games and get a chance at their first Quad 1 win on Saturday when they welcome St. Mary’s to their gym…San Francisco has to be frustrated. Their non-conference losses include Boise State (road by 5), Grand Canyon (neutral by 4), and Utah State (neutral by 1 – but it was played in Salt Lake City). Within the conference, they lost at Gonzaga by five. They desperately needed to win a few of those games, as they are 13-0 in Quadrant 4, which won’t impress anyone.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [20-2 (10-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 47]

Grand Canyon’s in-conference loss to Seattle (12-9; NET: 123) stings. In the non-conference, they are elevated by a win over San Diego State and a close (75-68) loss to South Carolina. The Lopes are 3-1 in Quadrant 2, including a win over San Francisco on a neutral court. Luckily for them, the Seattle loss falls in this quadrant, allowing them to claim that they have a clean resume. Is there any hope for them to make it? If they go 29-2 in the regular season and make it to the conference title game, would that be enough? It is very hard to say. The first step to that isn’t necessarily easy – winning nine in a row down the stretch against conference opponents isn’t easy for anyone. However, when you play in the WAC, a gaudy record and doing something of significance in the non-conference is a prerequisite for at-large consideration.

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Are any mid-majors at-large contenders?

The answer is simplistic if you include the Mountain West as a mid-major conference: Of course, there will be at-large mid-major teams!

However, most basketball fans wouldn’t consider the Mountain West as a true mid-major. Amongst conferences that traditionally only receive one bid, you can look towards the Ivy League (Princeton) and Missouri Valley (Indiana State) as two possibilities. Early-season darling James Madison still owns a gaudy record (18-3) but has lost both of their games to in-conference rival Appalachian State (17-4, 8-1). The Mountaineers could have found themselves in the conversation if not for a loss to Troy. That said, they own a non-conference win over Auburn. Their big problem is that James Madison is the only team that gives them any kind of in-conference resume boost. Grand Canyon could become the first Division 1 school to reach 20 wins this season (the WCC school is 19-2). The Lopes have a win over San Diego State but lost a game to Seattle inside the conference.

I guess if I am going to include those teams, I should at least mention McNeese out of the Southland. The Cowboys are 18-2 and are ranked 64th in the NET. They own the longest current winning streak in the nation. However, they own four wins outside of Division I, and their wins over VCU and Michigan (both having down years) are decent Quad 2 wins instead of Quad 1 conquests.

2. The KenPom Top 20

No team in the nation currently owns a Top 10 ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. It isn’t a wild take to say that teams that rank highly in both categories tend to be dangerous when the NCAA Tournament comes around.

How many teams are in the top 20 in both categories? A handful:
Purdue (2nd ranked offense, 13th ranked defense)
Arizona (5th, 16th)
Houston (14th, 1st)
North Carolina (15th, 4th)
Tennessee (18th, 2nd)
Auburn (19th, 5th)

As dominant as UConn is showing to be, you may be surprised not to see them on the list. The Huskies are 3rd offensively and 23rd defensively.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (19-2) (1) – Toughest strength of schedule, second-best adjusted offense, survived a trip to Rutgers (they usually don’t).
2. UConn (18-2) (2) – Like Purdue, 7-2 in Quad 1 games. I find Purdue’s overall resume to be stronger.
3. North Carolina (17-3) (3) – Longest winning streak amongst power conference schools (10). Only trail McNeese (13) for the longest in Division 1.
4. Houston (18-2) (4) – The Cougars continue to suffocate opponents. The move to the Big 12 hasn’t changed that.
5. Tennessee (15-4) (5) – Are we starting to see the best-of-the-best separate from the pack? Of course, it is just as likely that the Top 5 will all lose this week.
6. Creighton (16-5) (10) – Losses to Marquette & UConn were on the road. They will get a chance at home revenge in the second half.
7. Marquette (15-5) (13) – One of my preseason favorites is playing better. Have yet to play UConn this season.
8. Wisconsin (16-4) (14) – Six Quad 1 wins and 10-4 in Quad 1/2. Only Purdue has more wins in Quad 1/2 (11).
9. Arizona (15-5) (6) – Only 7-5 since 8-0 start but their resume remains solid. Need to stop losing games in a mediocre (at best) Pac-12.
10.  Illinois (15-5) (9) – Solid-but-not-spectacular resume has only one major blemish (home loss to Maryland).
11. Kentucky (15-4) (8) – The defense, maligned most of the year, showed up against Arkansas.
12. Auburn (16-4) (7) – They are getting a few opportunities but remain winless in Quadrant 1 (0-3). The Tigers have the most Quadrant 2 wins (6) in the nation, however.
13. Duke (15-4) (12) – Quadrant 2 is their roadblock (0-3). 10-1 in their last 11 games, even if it doesn’t feel that way.
14. Iowa State (16-4) (NR) – Big jump feels deserved after adding Kansas to their conquest of Houston.
15. Kansas (16-4) (11) – Struggling in conference road games. Losing at Iowa State isn’t so bad, but Central Florida and West Virginia are bothersome.
16. Florida Atlantic (17-4) (18) – The Owls have lost one game in each of the four quadrants. The AAC is tough at the top, and I think they will emerge from the pack.
17. New Mexico (18-3) (22) – In their last five games, their average margin of victory is 20.8 (91.2 points per game)
18. Utah State (18-2) (20) – They aren’t quite as hot as New Mexico, but the Aggies remain at the top of the Mountain West.
19. Texas Tech (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back wins over ranked opponents ease some of my concerns.
20. BYU (15-5) (16) – The Cougars have split their ten Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2 games.
21. Dayton (16-3) (19) – The Flyers haven’t lost outside of Quadrant 1 (3-3). The A-10 has a load of Top 100 NET teams, but only Dayton is in the Top 50 (16th).
22. Baylor (14-5) (16) – Three straight losses to unranked teams, though all three could have gone either way. 5-5 in last ten games.
23. San Diego State (16-4) (NR) – 20th ranked schedule. Would like to see them improve on their 2-4 Quadrant 1 mark.
24. Alabama (14-6) (NR) – An insanely tough schedule and the nation’s top adjusted offense makes them a legitimate Top 25 squad at this stage.
25. Saint Mary’s (16-6) (NR) – Eight straight wins and 7-0 in the WCC. To love them means overlooking two Quadrant 3 losses (3-2 in Quadrant 1)

Dropped Out:

Oklahoma (15-5) (17) – 2-4 in their last six games and 5-5 in their last ten games. 318th non-conference schedule doesn’t help, either.
Seton Hall (13-8) (21) – That crazy three overtime loss to Creighton has manifested into a 3-game losing streak.
Colorado State (15-5) (23) – The Rams started hot but are now 3-4 in conference play. The Mountain West is not for the faint of heart.
Memphis (15-5) (24) – The Tigers have lost three in a row in a conference that is pretty good but hardly good enough to justify losing three in a row.
Princeton (15-2) (25) – If they want at-large consideration, their road loss to Cornell should be their only loss until the conference tournament.

Just Missed:

TCU (15-5) – The Horned Frogs won a 3-OT thriller at Baylor and have a win over Houston. It was a very close call.
Indiana State (18-3) – Is it time to pay attention to the Missouri Valley power? The Sycamores have zero losses outside of Quadrant 1 and boast a strong offense. Defense is a bugaboo.
South Carolina (17-3) – Are they as good as the gaudy record? We will find out as their remaining schedule is brutal (both Tennessee games, both Ole Miss games, Auburn…)

1. Computers!

I love it when there is a debate over the computer rankings. I don’t agree with some of the rankings either. However, the committee has always said that computers only paint a part of the picture. I look heavily at the KenPom and NET because they do. If I am going to justify a ranking, statistical output is the best way to do it. That said, anyone can just list teams 1-25 based on the NET and call it their “ballot.”

There are so many moving parts that it seems worthless to try to make sense of everything. Gonzaga surging in the NET after wins over Pepperdine and San Diego doesn’t pass our eye test and for good reason. However, computers try to dig deeper than that. Their win over Syracuse gains value when the Orange beat Miami later in the season. As humans, most of us likely forgot that Gonzaga even played Syracuse this year, never mind trying to apply a formula that elevates that win later.

Seton Hall also falls into this trap – every time Rutgers or USC continues to lose and underachieve, it kills the Pirates because they lost to both teams. However, the committee will reward them for strong play in a strong conference.

2. Is there anything Grand Canyon/James Madison/etc. can do to enhance their resumes?

The answer is no, unfortunately. Grand Canyon losing to Seattle is a nightmare. James Madison losing two conference games may as well be a nail in the coffin. This goes back to the computer debate: These teams gain if their big upset victims play well. For Grand Canyon, that is San Diego State (and San Francisco, to an extent). For James Madison, that’s Michigan State.

I am a believer in the mid-majors, as they continue to prove through their tournament play that the best mid-majors are at least on par with the middle-of-the-pack big conference schools. In some cases, they are much better. The problem is that an at-large bid for these schools requires big non-conference wins, a strong schedule, and a gaudy record. The lack of a gaudy record, despite big non-conference wins, likely kept Monmouth (27-7 before the NIT) out of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. The committee’s mantra is to schedule tough games and win a few of them. However, you better not lose games to in-conference rivals!

3. How good is Princeton?

We may find out this week. There are three Ivy League schools in the NET Top 100: Princeton (31), Cornell (89). and Yale (96). Cornell is on a 3-game winning streak and is 4-0 at home. Yale is on a 5-game winning streak and played Gonzaga and Kansas within 15 points on the road. That may not impress you, but those are decent showings for an Ivy League squad.

Princeton’s next two games are road games against…

Cornell and Yale.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (17-2) (1) – 8-2 in road/neutral games.
2. UConn (17-2) (2) – 6-2 in Quad 1. They are behind Purdue because the Boilermakers have played only three Quad 4 games, while UConn has played eight.
3. North Carolina (15-3) (3) – Remain on cruise control. Their defense has stepped up.
4. Houston (16-2) (6) – Their two losses are by a combined five points on the road.
5. Tennessee (14-4) (7) – Doing more than enough against one of the toughest schedules in the country.
6. Arizona (14-4) (8) – The only shock is how they have lost two games in a weak Pac-12.
7. Auburn (16-2) (14) – The only thing holding them back is the lack of Quad 1 games (0-2). Their 6-0 record in Quad 2 is tied for best in the land (Memphis).
8. Kentucky (14-3) (9) – The Wildcats lead the nation in scoring (91.6) and are 4th in offensive efficiency.
9. Illinois (14-4) (13) – Rutgers is a bad offensive team but a solid defensive squad. The Illini torched them with an 86-point effort.
10. Creighton (14-5) (16) – Five road victories. Amongst power conference squads, no other team has more than three (Memphis, out of the AAC, also has five)
11. Kansas (15-3) (4) – 2-2 in last four. The two losses were to Central Florida (67th in the NET) and West Virginia (154th).
12. Duke (13-4) (5) – If you are missing players and lose to North Carolina, that is forgivable. But Pitt at home?
13. Marquette (13-5) (17) – Earned their second Quad 1 road win by defeating St. John’s. 4th toughest schedule after Purdue, Tennessee, Arizona.
14. Wisconsin (14-4) (12) – Bad loss at Penn State has the potential to drop into Quad 3. Their resume is more steady than it is overwhelming.
15. BYU (14-4) (19) – The Cougars continue to rise to the challenge of their new conference. The Iowa State win was a top-ten Quad 1 victory.
16. Baylor (14-4) (10) – A pair of road losses by a combined six points isn’t so bad. I also can’t overlook it completely.
17. Oklahoma (15-3) (23) – Earned their first road win of the season (Cincinnati), a game that also qualified as a Quad 1 victory.
18. Florida Atlantic (15-4) (20) – UTSA lost to Memphis 107-101 two weeks ago and 112-103 to Florida Atlantic last week. They aren’t good, but they are fun.
19. Dayton (15-2) (24) – 6-2 in Quadrant 1/2 (all games on the road or neutral courts).
20. Utah State (17-2) (15) – The Aggies remain unbeaten outside Quadrant 1, but are only 1-2 in Quadrant 1.
21. Seton Hall (13-6) (21) – 29th SOS, 4-4 in Quadrant 1. That was a brutal loss to Creighton – the Pirates would be in my top 15 if the coin flip went the other way.
22. New Mexico (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back Quadrant 1 wins are enough to convince me. The Mountain West is chaos.
23. Colorado State (15-3) (22) – Two wins, but a ding for needing overtime to beat Air Force at home. The non-conference destruction of Creighton carries weight.
24. Memphis (15-4) (11) – I ding somewhat even if a team loses to good squads. South Florida and Tulane? Yikes.
25. Princeton (15-1) (NR) – Correct: Zero games in Quad 1. Also correct: They are passing most of their tests beyond the 4-point loss to St. Joseph’s.

Dropped Out:

TCU (13-5) (18) – 2-3 in a tough stretch against Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, Cincinnati, Iowa State. 2-5 in Quadrant 1/2 games.
San Diego State (15-4) (25) – I will forever applaud their strength of schedule. More games in Quad 1/2 (10) than in Quad 3/4 (7).

Just Missed:

Texas Tech (15-3) – The Big 12 has helped improve their SOS. We’ll see where they are at after tough road games against TCU and Oklahoma.
Utah (14-5) – The Utes are 5-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games, including 2-2 in Top 25 Quad 1 games. Wins over Saint Mary’s and BYU bolstered their non-conference resume.
Iowa State (14-4) – Quad 1 road wins are gold, and they finally earned one. The computers have loved them all season – I still find their overall resume to be light.

1. Sorting out the Mountain West

It’s too early to conclude anything about the MWC, but the chaos we expected is coming to fruition. Colorado State, who looked like the best team during non-conference play, lost to the two remaining unbeaten conference squads last week (Utah State and Boise State). Speaking of Utah State, the Aggies pushed their winning streak to 15 games with their exciting road win over UNLV. Their 15-game winning streak with Samford for tops in the country. The Bulldogs started 0-2 (including a loss to Purdue) before going on their run. Their high-tempo style (only Kennesaw State has a better Adjusted Tempo) has allowed them to score a country-leading 91.5 points per game.

Back to the Mountain West: Six of the conference’s 11 squads are ranked between 20 (Utah State) and 44 (Boise State) in the NET. Will all six make the Big Dance?  Last year, four teams made it and I would guess we’ll end up around that number again.

2. A new mid-major threat?

For years, New Mexico State ruled the Western Athletic Conference. The Aggies, who canceled their season last year, have moved on to Conference USA. It looks like Grand Canyon wants to become the new bully. Off to an impressive 16-1 start that includes a win over San Diego State, the Lopes will try to make it to their third NCAA Tournament in the last four years. In 2021, they lost to #2 seed Iowa by 12. They repeated that feat two years later, losing to #2 Gonzaga by the same margin. Under the leadership of one-time NCAA Tournament hero Bryce Drew, they are 80-28.

While I wouldn’t consider them an at-large threat, their #39 NET ranking would give them a better NCAA Tournament seed if you want to look into the deep future. For now, they need to keep winning while hanging around the fringes of the Top 25.

3. Is Gonzaga in trouble?

The Bulldogs are barely hanging on to a Top 50 ranking in the NET after their loss at Santa Clara. They are 0-4 in Quadrant 1 and have zero high-quality Quadrant 2 wins (the wins over Syracuse and USC were bottom-half Quad 2 conquests). When was the last time two other teams in the WCC had a better NET ranking than Gonzaga? That is where we are at, as red-hot St. Mary’s (five straight wins; 31st) and San Francisco (six straight wins; 41st) both rank higher.

I won’t say they are in danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament if they lose in the conference tournament, but they can’t afford too many stumbles. It is their worst position in decades.

4. The crazy week behind us

This was one of those weeks where my Top 25 will have a lot of movement. However, it was so crazy that you find yourself placing most teams in roughly the same positions.

In the big multi-bid leagues, two teams have 9-game winning streaks (Texas Tech and Auburn) though I would argue that nobody is playing better than North Carolina, owners of six consecutive double-digit wins.

Top 25

1. Purdue (15-2) (1) – Overall resume still rules the day…

2. UConn (15-2) (5) – One of the few to go unscathed last week.

3. North Carolina (13-3) (7) – Is any big conference school playing better?

4. Kansas (14-2) (2) – Nice bounceback win over Oklahoma following the UCF loss.

5. Duke (13-3) (8) – The Blue Devils have sneakily won eight in a row.

6. Houston (14-2) (3) – The computers love them and, to be fair, both losses this week were close road contests.

7. Tennessee (12-4) (4) – No bad losses, but only 2-4 in Quadrant 1.

8. Arizona (12-4) (9) – 4-3 in their last seven games, but still are second to Purdue in Quadrant 1 wins (five)

9. Kentucky (12-3) (6) – 8th ranked adjusted offense. 54th-ranked adjusted defense. That sums it up.

10. Baylor (14-2) (13) – They’ve awakened since the back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Duke.

11. Memphis (15-2) (14) – Ten straight wins is worth something nowadays. Their win over UTSA was crazy.

12. Wisconsin (13-3) (18) – Death, taxes, and the Badgers exceeding expectations.

13. Illinois (12-4) (10) – The top five was staring them in the face…then they lost to Maryland. Oy very.

14. Auburn (14-2) (25) – 0-2 in Quadrant 1, but metrically a top ten offense and defense.

15. Utah State (16-1) (19) – A fun squad will try to end their 10-game NCAA Tournament losing streak in 2024.

16. Creighton (13-4) (20) – The Blue Jays have four straight wins after a 1-3 stretch.

17. Marquette (11-5) (11) – The Golden Eagles are in a slump – can they grind their way out of it like Creighton did?

18. TCU (13-3) (NR) – Last 3 games: 2-point loss at Kansas, 9-point win over Oklahoma, 1-point win over Houston. That works.

19. BYU (13-3) (12) – San Diego State remains their signature win this season.

20. Florida Atlantic (13-4) (21) – Survived Tulane to keep their spot in the Top 25.

21. Seton Hall (12-5) (NR) – It’s a chaotic resume, but one that includes a 4-2 Quadrant 1 record.

22. Colorado State (13-3) (17) – Road games are tough in the MWC. Hard to fault losses to Utah State and Boise State but they will need to protect their home court.

23. Oklahoma (13-3) (15) – No bad losses, but only one win in Quadrant 1 (three losses).

24. Dayton (13-2) (NR) – Ten straight wins + three Quadrant 1 wins. Much the best in the A-10, but two others are also unbeaten (Richmond, Rhode Island)

25. San Diego State (14-3) (16) – Tight for the last spot but their SOS keeps them in.

Dropped Out:

Cincinnati (12-4) (22) – No shame in back-to-back losses to Texas and Baylor (especially Baylor, since it was a 3-point road loss)

Clemson (12-4) (23) – Resume is still solid (zero losses outside Quadrant 1) but only 3-4 after 9-0 start.

South Carolina (14-2) (24) – Hard to keep them in after a brutal 74-47 loss to Alabama.

Just Missed:

Princeton (13-1) – My original rankings had them leaping over San Diego State. The Tigers are 4-1 in Quadrant 2.

Grand Canyon (16-1) – It’s that time of the year when you compare a win-heavy mid-major school to bigger schools that eat each other. Tough to balance.

Texas Tech (14-2) – Dinged for a horrid schedule. TCU had a bad non-conference slate as well, but can’t ignore what they are doing in the conference. The Red Raiders have some work to do.

 

 

Top 25

1. Purdue (14-1) (1) – Illinois has emerged as a top team in the Big Ten. Purdue beat them by five last week. They don’t play a currently ranked team for a while, but an in-state in-conference rivalry game at Indiana awaits on 1/16.

2. Kansas (13-1) (2) – As I keep saying, the computers are not in love. The KenPom ranks them as the 18th luckiest team in the country, and certainly held up against TCU on Saturday. They take on Oklahoma this coming weekend.

3. Houston (14-0) (3) – I was tempted to jump them over Kansas, but that is just semantics. For all the talk about their stellar defense, their offense ranks tenth in offensive efficiency. A tricky road trip against Iowa State and TCU is coming next.

4. Tennessee (11-3) (4) – The Volunteers extended their winning streak to seven by mauling the previously unbeaten Ole Miss squad by 26.

5. UConn (13-2) (5) – Road wins are precious inside conference play, and the Huskies needed all the offense they could muster to take care of Butler. Defense is where they can use some improvement. Offensively, they are as good as anyone.

6. Kentucky (11-2) (9) – It was a hard fought battle, but the Wildcats prevailed on the road against Florida. Underachieving Texas A&M is a part of their upcoming schedule.

7. North Carolina (11-3) (11) – The Tar Heels have played seven games in Quad 1 this season, tied for most in the NCAA. Only Purdue (6) and Arizona (5) have won more games in that quadrant.

8. Duke (11-3) (12) – The Blue Devils had to play the full 40 minutes to defeat Notre Dame. This week, they try to avenge their early-season loss to Georgia Tech.

9. Arizona (12-3) (13) – The Wildcats average 92.6 points per game, including recent slaughters of Colorado (97-50) and Utah (92-73).  A dangerous, dangerous squad.

10. Illinois (11-3) (8) – They destroyed Northwestern before hanging tough in a 6-point road loss to Purdue. Inconsistent Michigan State and down Maryland await next.

11. Marquette (11-4) (6) – The Golden Eagles remain one of my favorites to cut down the nets. Every loss is in Quadrant 1, where they also own three victories.

12. BYU (12-2) (7) – The Cougars’ first Big 12 test did not go well, as they lost a home game to Cincinnati (another new member of the conference). It doesn’t get much easier, as a trip to Baylor awaits.

13. Baylor (12-2) (15) – The Bears have followed up their losses to Michigan State and Duke with three straight wins against not-as-good competition. Their game against BYU may show us something about both schools.

14. Memphis (13-2) (17) – On one hand, the Tigers have eight straight wins and have yet to lose a game outside of Quadrant 1. On the other, their last few wins haven’t been impressive (78-75 over Tulsa and 62-59 over SMU).

15. Oklahoma (13-1) (18) – A nice win over computer darling Iowa State last week. This week? Two road games (TCU, Kansas) that will tell us more about the Sooners, who didn’t play a tough non-conference slate.

16. San Diego State (13-2) (19) – I don’t know what more they need to do to get the AP writers to put them in the Top 25. Two Quad 1 wins, zero bad losses, 14th-best non-conference schedule, etc.

17. Colorado State (13-2) (10) – This was the week of challenges for the Rams, and they ended up splitting the two games (win over New Mexico/loss to Utah State).

18. Wisconsin (11-3) (24) – The Badgers are the lone unbeaten squad (3-0) in the Big Ten. A tricky road game against Ohio State comes next.

19. Utah State (14-1) (NR) – Their win over Colorado State improved their Quad 1 record to 2-0. As expected, the Mountain West has started strong.

20. Creighton (11-4) (25) – The Blue Jays needed that win over Providence. They need to start stacking wins after a tough stretch that saw them go 1-3 with a loss to UNLV mixed in.

21. Florida Atlantic (11-4) (14) – Life as the hunted instead of the hunter can be a rough one. Their win over Arizona will forever be their biggest conquest. They cannot lose many games to teams like Charlotte (7-7) and expect to maintain a Sweet 16 seed in the Big Dance.

22. Cincinnati (12-2) (NR) – The Bearcats started their stretch of five ranked games in six games played with a win over BYU. Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas are a part of this crazy stretch.

23. Clemson (11-3) (16) – An 0-2 week (losses to Miami and North Carolina) drops the Tigers, who are entering the easier part of their conference slate. It is time to pile up the wins.

24. South Carolina (13-1) (NR) – The Gamecocks essentially take the place of Ole Miss as ranked teams who still have something to prove. Their game at Alabama this week can make things clearer.

25. Auburn (12-2) (NR) – Arkansas isn’t playing up to expectations, but Auburn beating them by 32 in a home game is eye-popping for both squads.

Dropped Out:

Colorado (11-4) (20) – Their trip through Arizona (Arizona State, Arizona) did not go well.

James Madison (14-1) (21) – They had trouble at Louisiana before losing to Southern Miss. Their margins aren’t wide, so they have to avoid losing too many in-conference games if they want any at-large consideration.

Ole Miss (13-1) (22) – I didn’t expect them to beat Tennessee on the road. I did need them to keep it close for me to keep ranking them.

Texas (11-3) (23) – When your non-conference schedule is ranked 319th, you better play well once tougher competition enters the arena.

Just Missed:

Nevada (14-1) – Seven straight wins as they attempt to join their Mountain West counterparts in the Top 25.

Princeton (13-1) – The Tigers just keep on winning…

Seton Hall (10-5) – They are putting together a nice array of Big East victories.

 

Top 25

1. Purdue (12-1) (1) – A dominant win over Eastern Kentucky was expected, but you never know what to expect in college basketball. It’s all conference play from here on out for the Boilermakers, owners of the 18th-best non-conference schedule.

2. Kansas (12-1) (2) – The computers don’t love the Jayhawks, though they defeated Kentucky, Tennessee, and UConn. A solid schedule and a top defense (4th in the nation in defensive efficiency) puts them in this position.

3. Houston (13-0) (3) – Unbeaten. Extraordinary defense. Not-so-hot schedule (9-0 in Quad 3/4 games). The Big 12 will provide plenty of tests, with a game at Iowa State (1/9) offering up such a challenge.

4. Tennessee (9-3) (5) – One more non-conference tilt (Norfolk State) before a game with unbeaten Ole Miss to begin conference play.

5. UConn (11-2) (6) – While the loss to Seton Hall may stand out, it was a Big East road game. Strange things happen in big conference road games sometimes. Their non-conference schedule is 251st in the nation, but that is mostly because they mixed a lot of strong opposition with some very weak opposition – not much in between the two extremes.

6. Marquette (11-3) (8) – Winning tough home games will be imperative in the Big East race – the Golden Eagles did that against Creighton. They take a road trip to Seton Hall this coming week.

7. BYU (12-1) (9) – Negative: 300th-ranked non-conference schedule. Positive: Top ten in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It is time to prove just how good they are as Big 12 play commences.

8. Illinois (10-2) (10) – If Michigan State can get rolling, they will factor into the Big Ten. However, for now, Purdue’s main competition appears to be Illinois. There will be a bunch of teams fighting for NCAA Tournament scraps in this league. Speaking of Purdue, Illinois takes on the Boilermakers’ nemesis (Northwestern) next.

9. Kentucky (10-2) (11) – Their resume is dinged by playing only four Quad 1/2 games (3-1) plus their Quad 3 loss to UNC-Wilmington. Plenty of difficult conference games are upcoming, though they don’t play a currently ranked AP Top 25 team until February.

10. Colorado State (12-1) (13) – The preliminaries are over. Now the Mountain West fun begins: The Rams take on New Mexico (12-1) and Utah State (12-1, road game) in their next two games.

11. North Carolina (9-3) (14) – The Tar Heels (9th in the country in offensive efficiency) play their next three conference games on the road: Pitt, Clemson, and North Carolina State.

12. Duke (9-3) (15) – Their January ACC schedule is not tough – it is their time to start stacking wins while building up the resume. The ACC is not deep, and the Blue Devils play Clemson and Miami only once apiece.

13. Arizona (10-3) (7) – Hopefully, for the Wildcats’ sake, Stanford going crazy from three was a fluke and not a sign of weakness. Even after that effort, they are in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

14. Florida Atlantic (10-3) (4) – They are 2-1 in Quadrant 1 games and 3-0 in Quadrant 2 games. However, those two Quad 4 losses (Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast) are killers.

15. Baylor (10-2) (12) – No games last week. The Bears have another non-conference warm-up (Cornell) before they travel to Oklahoma State to begin Big 12 play. Their offense is stellar – their defense is vulnerable.

16. Clemson (11-1) (17) – If you are skeptical about the Tigers, their next two games will either prove you wrong or right: at Miami and at home against North Carolina.

17. Memphis (11-2) (19) – I want to jump Memphis over Oklahoma thanks to their 25th-ranked non-conference slate. They are 7-2 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games and will be the main competition for Florida Atlantic in the AAC.

18. Oklahoma (12-1) (18) – The fact remains that the Sooners are 8-0 in Quadrant 4 games and have one of the weakest schedules in college basketball. The good thing about big conference teams is that you can’t hide forever.

19. San Diego State (11-2) (NR) – No bad losses and the 15th-ranked non-conference schedule in the nation. The win over Gonzaga iced their spot in the Top 20 for me.

20. Colorado (11-2) (20) – The two Washington schools visited Colorado last week. The games weren’t as easy as perhaps they should have been, but wins are wins. A huge game at Arizona awaits.

21. James Madison (13-0) (22) – As Michigan State tries to heat up, that only helps out the Dukes’ resume. Now comes the part of the season that is a nearly impossible situation: The Sun Belt, which is traditionally a decent mid-major league (the conference ranks 21st out of 33), has only one other team in the Top 100 in the NET (Appalachian State). Three of the teams are ranked in the 300s. They simply cannot afford to lose to those teams.

22. Ole Miss (13-0) (23) – Then you have Ole Miss. The Rebels are 10-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4 games. Unlike James Madison, however, they will have plenty of games to boost their resume. Of course, those games could also expose them. They start SEC play with a game at Tennessee. Good luck.

23. Texas (10-2) (24) – At least Ole Miss and James Madison own Quad 1 wins. Texas is 0-2 in Quad 1 games and a whopping 9-0 in Quadrant 4 games. The Longhorns need to have a strong Big 12 campaign or that will be held against them. If it isn’t, there is something wrong.

24. Wisconsin (9-3) (25) – The Badgers had the holiday week off. Their upcoming schedule isn’t daunting, though it does include a game at Ohio State.

25. Creighton (9-4) (16) – I will keep them in the Top 25 because their is better than that of a team like Providence. That said, the Blue Jays are 0-2 in the Big East while the Friars are 2-0. It is time to start winning.

Dropped Out:

Gonzaga (9-4) (21) – I don’t see the justification to keep the Zags ranked. They are 0-4 in Quadrant 1 games, and that is supposed to be their early-season bread and butter. Unless St. Mary’s wakes up, the WCC is going to likely be a breeze.

Just Missed:

New Mexico (12-1), Nevada (13-1), Utah State (12-1) – They remain in this spot for another week. The Mountain West will start sorting these teams out this week.

Providence (11-2) – I was within an eyelash of putting them in the Top 25 over Creighton.

Iowa State (11-2) – I am not extremely impressed, but every computer loves the Hawkeyes so I should give them some respect. They have played only one Quadrant 1 game (a loss) and are 8-0 in Quadrant 4.

Top 25

1. Purdue (11-1) (1) – After a tough schedule that included wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, and Arizona, the Boilermakers finally received a break in a 100-57 drubbing of Jacksonville. No team is more deserving of the top spot heading into 2024.

2. Kansas (11-1) (2) – The computers don’t love the Jayhawks (16th in the KenPom; 15th in the NET), but they still own three Quadrant 1 wins. Admittedly, they have their share of close wins against teams they should crush on paper.

3. Houston (12-0) (3) – The Cougars sit at the top of the computer rankings, and for good reason. My ding comes from a relatively mediocre schedule, though they are 4-0 in Quad 1 games.

4. Florida Atlantic (10-2) (8) – There is no other way to describe their non-conference slate as anything but a success – even with that weird loss to Bryant. After a game against Florida-Gulf Coast, the Owls begin conference play. Memphis will be their main competition on paper, but we will see how it shakes out.

5. Tennessee (9-3) (7) – The computers love the Vols, given that they have eight games in Quad 1/Quad 2 and only four games in Quad 3/Quad 4. They will play Norfolk State before starting their conference slate against Ole Miss.

6. UConn (11-2) (4) – While the Huskies continue their dominance against non-conference foes, Seton Hall proved to be a tough opponent. They did rebound with an impressive win over St. John’s, however.

7. Arizona (9-2) (5) – So, they had a stretch of games where they played Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Alabama, and Florida Atlantic. In those five games, the Wildcats went 3-2.  The rest of their schedule will be all in-conference foes.

8. Marquette (10-3) (6) – The Golden Knights struggled mightily at Providence (72-57), but bounced back by slaughtering Georgetown. Before the calendar starts to 2024, a tough matchup with Creighton awaits.

9. BYU (11-1) (9) – I am simply going to point to their 1/9 game at Baylor. They may not win that game, but we must see just how “real” the Cougars are.

10. Illinois (9-2) (12) – Their non-conference is essentially a win over Florida Atlantic and losses to Tennessee and Marquette. They have a huge game with Purdue coming up (1/5), assuming they can beat 2023 NCAA Tournament Bracket Buster FDU and Northwestern leading into it.

11. Kentucky (9-2) (13) – Maybe the Wildcats should apply to play in the ACC, given their 3-0 record against the conference this year (Miami, North Carolina, Louisville). They have regained some trust after that loss to UNC Wilmington.

12. Baylor (10-2) (10) – Those losses to Michigan State and Duke will raise some eyebrows, as their schedule was far from strong heading into those games. I might be over-ranking them, but there is still a lot to like here – especially on the offensive side of the ball.

13. Colorado State (11-1) (14) – The Rams only have one Quad 1 game (a win over Creighton) but are also 3-1 against Quad 2 opponents. While I have identified them as the best in the Mountain West, there is a lot of season to go and the league promises to be one of the most fun leagues to follow this season.

14. North Carolina (8-3) (15) – Oklahoma is no longer unbeaten thanks to the Tar Heels, who finished 4-3 in their gauntlet of seven games (OK, including Florida State on the list is dubious).

15. Duke (8-3) (21) – Their 110th-ranked schedule included a win over Michigan State but little else until they took care of business against Baylor at Madison Square Garden. They play Queens next, a team that just lost to Clemson by 30.

16. Creighton (9-3) (11) – A tough loss to Villanova to start off their conference slate – they will try to right their ship at Marquette on 12/30.

17. Clemson (10-1) (17) – The Tigers keep their ranking, as their only game last week was a non-conference tilt against Queens. Radford (10-4, 5-game winning streak) awaits. The Highlanders lost to James Madison by only three earlier this season.

18. Oklahoma (10-1) (16) – North Carolina put an end to the Sooners’ undefeated dreams. I have never ranked Oklahoma too high due to their 275th ranked schedule, but their defense ranks in the top ten in the nation (by defensive efficiency).

19. Memphis (10-2) (20) – Vanderbilt (4-8) played the Tigers very well, losing by only two. While that isn’t impressive, Memphis has won five in a row with three wins over strong competition (Texas A&M, Clemson, Virginia). They own a 7-2 record against Quad 1/Quad 2 competition.

20. Colorado (9-2) (22) – Colorado has won four straight games by a combined 101 points, though only one of those games was high quality (Miami).

21. Gonzaga (9-3) (23) – When was the last time Gonzaga was as low as 45th in the NET? An 0-3 record in Quad 1 games will do that to you. Their upcoming game against San Diego State may not be a Quadrant 1 game, but it would be a nice feather to add to their cap.

22. James Madison (12-0) (24) – The Dukes are doing what they need to do – win, win, win. If they want any shot at an at-large berth (if they don’t win the conference tournament), they will need a gaudy record for the committee to look at.

23. Ole Miss (12-0) (NR) – The Rebels have zero Quad 1 games, but it is time to recognize their undefeated record. The tests will come soon enough, starting with a 1/6 game against Tennessee.

24. Texas (9-2) (19) – I can excuse a team like James Madison having trouble finding opponents. The Longhorns have the nation’s 318th-ranked non-conference schedule and that is not acceptable.

25. Wisconsin (9-3) (25) – The Badgers didn’t fall into the same trap as Northwestern, as they were able to take care of business against Chicago State. The rest of their schedule is in-conference games only.

Dropped Out:

Virginia (9-2) (18) – A 23-point loss to Memphis is enough to knock that out of the Top 25. Their defense is, at times, great. Their offense is, most of the time, not good at all.

Just Missed:

New Mexico (11-1), Nevada (12-1), Utah State (12-1) – A trio of 1-loss Mountain West squads. According to the NET, they are ranked 34th, 36th, and 40th, respectively.

Princeton (11-1) – Ranked 24th in the NET, the Tigers have a resume issue as they are only 0-1 in Quadrant 1. They need Rutgers to improve to turn that win into a Quad 1 conquest.

Providence (11-2) – The Friars are stacking wins, including conquests of Wisconsin and Marquette.