Category: College Basketball

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/16

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [19-6 (11-3), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 11]
Duke [19-5 (10-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Clemson [17-7 (7-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 25]
Wake Forest [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 37]
Virginia [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 41]
Pittsburgh [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 54]
Virginia Tech [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 61]

Clemson is close to lock status and is closer to being a Sweet 16 seed than to being on the outside looking in. Their remaining schedule includes zero games against North Carolina, Duke, or Virginia. The Tigers simply need to avoid a string of bad losses.
I can’t get around Wake Forest‘s lack of Quad 1 wins. At some point, you have to beat the best of the best, and the Demon Deacons have yet to do that. There are still opportunities remaining on their schedule.
Virginia is the only team that can spoil the North Carolina/Duke regular-season champion party. Their game against Wake Forest on Saturday has major bubble implications.
Pittsburgh‘s four-game surge (which includes wins over Wake Forest and Virginia (road)) places them squarely in the bubble picture. Don’t you dare lose your Saturday home game against Louisville. By the way, the Panthers are hurt by a non-conference schedule that was one of the worst in the country.
Virginia Tech is in trouble but there is a way out: Their next three games are against North Carolina (road), Virginia, and Pittsburgh (road).

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [20-5 (10-2); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 29]
SMU [17-7 (9-3); Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 40]
Memphis [18-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 80]

Florida Atlantic has the tough schedule and the impressive wins (Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Arizona all on neutral courts) to place them in a good spot. Their Quad 4 loss to Florida-Gulf Coast and Quad 3 loss to Bryant stand out, but would the committee leave them out for those losses alone? Seems doubtful.
SMU has a clean resume (13-1 in Quad 3/4) but hasn’t earned that coveted Quad 1 win. Furthermore, their Thursday game at Florida Atlantic is their last shot at earning one.
Memphis has a worse NET than North Texas (73) but is 5-5 in Quad 1/2 while North Texas is 1-7 in similar games. Regardless, neither team is likely at this point.

South Florida leads the conference race at 11-1 and has ten straight wins. They aren’t on my tournament bubble because of their #100 NET ranking. and two Quad 4 losses. The Bulls are kicking themselves over their 2-4 start.

Atlantic 10

Bubble:
Dayton [20-4 (10-2), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 19]

Dayton hasn’t stumbled this year (12-0 in Quad 3/4) and has probably done enough to get into the tournament.

Big 12

In:
Houston [21-3 (8-3), Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [19-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 8]
BYU [18-6 (6-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 9]
Baylor [17-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 12]
Kansas [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Texas Tech [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 26]
Texas [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 31]
Oklahoma [18-7 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 33]
Cincinnati [15-9 (4-7); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 38]
TCU [17-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 39]
UCF [13-10 (4-7); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 66]
Kansas State [15-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 77]

A conference with 14 members having 12 teams with tournament aspirations is crazy. You can still draw a line underneath TCU above, but I can’t completely cross off UCF or Kansas State as of now.

Texas Tech scored a big win over Kansas on Monday. Can they follow that up with a win at Iowa State? Because, if they do, they likely lock themselves in.
Texas is 2-3 in his last five games with a crazy schedule upcoming (Houston (road), Kansas State, Kansas (road), Texas Tech (road)). A free-fall is not impossible.
Oklahoma is 3-4 in their last seven games though two of the wins are over Kansas State (road) and BYU. Three of their next four games are against Kansas, Iowa State (road), and Houston.
Cincinnati has a solid NET to fall back on. The Bearcats lost back-to-back home games to Houston and Iowa State and are 2-5 in their last seven games. How much relief do they feel over pulling out that early-season game against Howard in overtime? That would have been a bad Quad 4 loss.
TCU has back-to-back road games against Kansas State and Texas Tech coming up. The committee *will* hold their terrible non-conference schedule against them. There is no way around that. Hence, they have to continue to add on big conference wins to feel safe.
UCF has banked a handful of solid wins but the Knights are only 1-6 in the toughest of Quad 1 games.
Kansas State started a tough stretch of games with a 1-point loss to Texas Tech and a 4-point win over Baylor. Since then, they are 2-5 (though one of the wins was over Kansas). Beat TCU on Saturday and Texas on Tuesday and we can start talking again. Currently, they are behind UC-Irvine according to NET, so that tells you something.

Big East

In:
UConn [23-2 (13-1); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Creighton [18-7 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 18]

Bubble:
Villanova [14-11 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 34]
Saint John’s [14-11 (6-8); Quad 1: 2-9; NET: 46]
Butler [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 49]
Xavier [13-12 (7-7); Quad 1: 2-9; NET: 55]
Providence [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [16-9 (9-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 68]

The Big East has to be disappointed in their overall performance. The conference is ranked 5th according to NET, with only the Pac-12 below them amongst the power conferences.

Villanova is only 2-3 in Quad 3 games and is relying heavily on their Battle 4 Atlantis championship. Their remaining schedule offers up some opportunities, but they could easily enter the Big East Tournament with a 16-15 type of record.
Saint John‘s playing 11 Quad 1 games is impressive – but you must win more than two of them. The Red Storm have only two road wins this season, one of which was over West Virginia. Simply beating their remaining weak opponents (Georgetown twice and DePaul) won’t be nearly enough.
Butler has played in 12 Quad 1 games with four wins while not losing one game in Quad 3/4 (8-0). The committee will like the road wins over Marquette and Creighton. Can they complete a season sweep of Creighton on Sautrday?
Xavier has a decent NET but is in danger of falling to .500 or below heading into the Big East Tournament. That would knock them out, barring a strong showing in said tournament. I applaud tough schedules (7th best non-conference) but you have to stack wins.
Providence hasn’t played one Quad 3 game this season, which is more of an interesting tidbit than anything (the Friars are 9-0 in Quad 4). They have road games against Xavier and Marquette coming up.
Seton Hall has nine conference victories and four Quad 1 wins. If Rutgers keeps winning, their loss to the Scarlett Knights has the potential to rise into Quad 2 territory, which will help. What will help more? Surviving their upcoming gauntlet (Saint John’s (road), Butler, Creighton (road), UConn (road), and Villanova). Going 2-3 in those games + defeating DePaul will place them at 19-12 (12-8) heading into the conference tournament. Easier said than done, but I believe that is their bare minimum.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [23-2 (12-2); Quad 1: 9-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [18-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [17-8 (9-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 20]

Bubble:
Michigan State [16-9 (8-6); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 21]
Nebraska [17-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 53]
Northwestern [17-8 (8-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 59]

Purdue has this conference wrapped up.

Michigan State could slide into the “in” category soon. Their NET is too strong to ignore regardless of any warts (and there aren’t many, given that they are 7-9 in Quad 1/2 and unbeaten beyond that)
Nebraska‘s poor non-conference schedule is catching up to them. Their resume is annoying and the rest of their schedule doesn’t offer Quad 1 opportunities. Hence, they must go 5-1 if not 6-0.
Northwestern played an even worse non-conference slate than Nebraska, but one difference is that they defeated Dayton. The Wildcats were so close to sweeping Purdue. Like Nebraska, a strong finish is a necessity.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [22-4 (13-2); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 28]
Drake [21-5 (12-3); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 51]

Why don’t I lock in teams like Indiana State? Because a clean resume can turn dirty with one bad conference loss. That happened to them on Tuesday when they lost a Quad 4 game against Illinois State. Their NET is still strong but that is likely the last big hit they can take with five regular season games remaining.
Drake hangs around on the fringes of the bubble, though their three Quad 3 losses will continue to haunt them. Can a trip to the conference championship be enough? Maybe, if they face Indiana State in that game.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [20-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 15]

Bubble:
New Mexico [20-6 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 23]
Utah State [21-4 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 27]
Colorado State [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 30]
Boise State [16-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 45]
Nevada [19-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 47]
UNLV [14-9 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 90]

It’s time to lock in San Diego State. Going on an extended winning streak in the Mountain West is hard, but I can’t imagine the Aztecs missing out at this point.

New Mexico took home an impressive road win over Nevada earlier in the week but lost on the road to San Diego State on Friday. Their big blemish is being swept by UNLV.
Utah State hasn’t lost in Quad 3/4 this season (12-0) and is an impressive 5-1 in Quad 2. While they lost a few games recently (San Diego State, Nevada), they rebounded to defeat Boise State. I circle three upcoming games (Fresno State (road), Air Force, San Jose State (road)) because losing those games would be their only ticket out of the NCAA Tournament.
Colorado State has a lot going for them: A strong non-conference slate and a 7-5 Quad 1/2 record. Their big black mark is their road loss (in overtime) to Wyoming.
Boise State has five Quad 1 wins, which is impossible to ignore. Equally impossible to ignore is a strong non-conference schedule with a neutral court win over St. Mary’s. The Broncos are 4-3 against likely/bubble NCAA Tournament teams within the conference.
Nevada is also the proud owner of five Quad 1 wins. Their non-conference schedule wasn’t nearly as strong as Boise State’s, even with a tournament title (Diamond Head Classic, where they defeated TCU in the semifinals). They couldn’t beat New Mexico this year but have wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Colorado State.
UNLV is not really a bubble team but they merit a scrub based on four Quad 1 wins with the opportunity for more. The Rebels are on a five-game winning streak, though only the win over New Mexico (on the road) was impactful.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Washington State [19-6 (10-4); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 36]
Colorado [16-9 (7-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 42]
Utah [15-10 (6-8); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 48]
Oregon [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 63]

Arizona continues to push for a #1 seed, while four teams scramble for 1-3 additional bids.

Washington State is the only threat to Arizona’s Pac-12 title dreams. The Cougars have six straight wins and have a chance to complete a season sweep of Arizona on Thursday. Win that road contest and they lock themselves in.
Colorado doesn’t have a bad loss but Quad 1 wins have been hard to come by. UCLA is making some noise late, but the Buffaloes road loss to the Bruins didn’t help their cause. The committee will not like the 1-7 road record.
Utah had some momentum going and nearly knocked off Arizona (overtime loss). However, they have since lost to Arizona State (dreadful home loss) and USC. That doesn’t cut it.
Oregon is 1-4 against Colorado, Utah, Washington State, and Arizona. Looking ahead a few weeks, they close their season with Arizona (road), Colorado, and Utah. The Ducks may be in a position where they need to sweep those games.

SEC

In:
Alabama [17-7 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 5]
Auburn [20-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 6]
Tennessee [18-6 (8-3), Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 7]

Bubble:
Kentucky [17-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 24]
Florida [17-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 32]
Mississippi State [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 35]
Texas A&M [15-9 (6-5); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 43]
South Carolina [21-4 (9-3); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 50]
Ole Miss [18-6 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 62]

The top three schools in this conference stay strong in the top ten, while the rest try to move away from the pack.

Kentucky losing to Gonzaga hurt their shot to lock themselves into the tournament. They followed that up with a win over struggling Ole Miss. What will they do on the road against Auburn on Saturday?
Florida has snuck under the radar most of the season, and it is easy to see why. They have zero losses outside Quad 1 but have only two Quad 1 wins. The Gators need to keep their resume clean (don’t lose to Georgia on Saturday) while picking up a few more impressive wins along the way. They still play Alabama twice.
Mississippi State has losses in Quad 3 and Quad 4 and hasn’t been great against the other strong SEC schools (2-6). They are only 1-6 on the road (6-0 on neutral courts). The Bulldogs did defeat Tennessee and Auburn, however.
Texas A&M won three straight games, including conquests of Florida and Tennessee. They followed up those wins with a loss…at Vanderbilt? In a big conference, that is “only” a Quad 3 loss, but it is not a good look. Logic says they will beat Alabama on Saturday.
South Carolina has a big record in a big conference but the computers are not in love. Their non-conference schedule (285th) is one reason for that but the Gamecocks have several nice wins (most notably a road win over Tennessee). Despite the NET, I see them as a probable NCAA Tournament squad, but they can’t be losing by 40 – even if it was a road game against Auburn.
Ole Miss looks dead. The Rebels have three straight losses and their non-conference win over Memphis has lost steam. They must stop the bleeding against Missouri on Saturday.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [22-3 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 58]

It’s the same story every time I write this – win out and lose in the conference title game and maybe your resume is looked at. Their season opening win at VCU has looked better lately (it represents their Quad 1 win)

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [23-3 (10-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 52]

The Dukes have done their job lately, including a nice win over Akron in the MAC-SBC Challenge last Saturday. Their 2-OT win over Kent State earlier this year was supposed to be a decent resume booster but Kent State hasn’t played well.

West Coast

In:

St. Mary’s [21-6 (12-0); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 14]

Bubble:

Gonzaga [19-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 22]
San Francisco [20-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 65]

There’s something wrong with the world if St. Mary’s doesn’t get in at this point.

Gonzaga needed that win over Kentucky but has to do more to secure their spot. Stay away from a devastating loss and they should be OK. They close their season against Santa Clara, San Francisco (road), and St. Mary’s (road)
San Francisco‘s season is nothing but a bunch of annoying losses and 18-0 record in Quad 3/4 games. It is hard to make a case when your best win is a neutral court conquest of Minnesota.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [23-2 (13-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 44]

Simply put: Don’t lose, let the committee be impressed by the San Diego State win, and see what happens. This squad deserves to show what they can do in the NCAA Tournament but the margin for error is very small.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Monday, 2/12.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [19-5 (11-2), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Duke [19-5 (10-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Clemson [16-7 (6-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 30]
Virginia [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 32]
Wake Forest [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 39]
Pittsburgh [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 60]
Virginia Tech [13-10 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 63]

The ACC looks like a 4-5 bid league.
Clemson is impressing on the road. In their last four road contests, they have wins over Florida State, North Carolina, and Syracuse to go along with a one-point loss to Duke. Remember that their non-conference schedule was one of the best in the country and they beat Boise State, Alabama (road), South Carolina, and TCU (neutral). Only a crash keeps them out.
Virginia’s impressive run landed them in the Top 25 this week. Their remaining schedule gives them opportunities to add more Quad 1 opportunities.
Wake Forest had a shot at a Quadrant 1 win on Monday but lost to Duke. The Demon Deacons are 5-4 in Quadrant 2, including a pair of wins that are right on the edge of Quadrant 1 (Florida, Virginia).
Pittsburgh is 3-6 in Quadrant 1/2 and 6-2 in Quadrant 3. That isn’t impressive, but they are 5-2 in road games.
Virginia Tech has three Quadrant 1 wins but their recent loss to Notre Dame was damaging. They are barely hanging on to relevance.

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [19-5 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 27]
SMU [16-7 (8-3); Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 43]
Memphis [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 75]

Florida Atlantic escaped Wichita State with an overtime win, raising their record to 10-4 in road/neutral games. I don’t need to keep reminding you about some of their impressive non-conference conquests. The Owls will dance this year, but remember that their remaining conference schedule has land mines.
SMU is one of those land mines, and the Mustangs are desperate for a Quadrant 1 win. Unlike Wake Forest, SMU struggles in Quadrant 2 as well (1-3), which is why their decent NET may not earn them much consideration.
After losing four straight games to teams with a NET rating of 100+, Memphis has won three in a row against teams that meet the same criteria. The Tigers must sweep Florida Atlantic.

If you wonder about South Florida, they lead the conference and have won nine straight. However, they are 14-3 in Quad 3/Quad 4 with some brutal losses mixed in. Their NET is too high (103). Perhaps they can be looked into if they beat Florida Atlantic and SMU (both home games) down the stretch.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [19-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 18]

What does Dayton need to do to lock in a bid? Avoid multiple bad losses. The Flyers are 8-4 in Quad 1/2 and haven’t lost a game outside of Quadrant 1. They scheduled well in the non-conference and won several resume boosters (SMU (road), Saint John’s (neutral), Cincinnati (neutral)). They’re close.

Big 12

In:
Houston [21-3 (8-3), Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 1]
BYU [17-6 (5-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 8]
Iowa State [18-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 9]
Baylor [16-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 12]
Kansas [19-6 (7-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Texas Tech [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 26]
Oklahoma [18-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 31]
Texas [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 34]
Cincinnati [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 35]
TCU [17-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 42]
UCF [13-9 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 67]
Kansas State [15-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 77]

Can the Big 12 receive ten bids? It isn’t only possible, it’s probable (at this point, I don’t think UCF/Kansas State will make it 11 or 12). However, the bubble squads aren’t perfect and the schedules are harsh.

Texas Tech annihilated Kansas on Monday night, earning a needed 4th Quadrant 1 win. They jumped significantly in the NET rankings as they continue to overcome a bad non-conference slate.
Oklahoma couldn’t afford to lose to in-state rival Oklahoma State. Luckily for the Sooners, they won by four. Their remaining schedule is crazy. Beyond the rematch with Oklahoma State, they play Baylor (road), Kansas, Iowa State (road), Houston, Cincinnati, and Texas (road). This is why I would bet on ten bids from this conference but wouldn’t put my life savings on it.
Texas plays a lot of tough road games down the stretch (Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, Baylor). So far, the Longhorns have played well on opposing courts (beat Cincinnati, Oklahoma, and TCU).
Cincinnati is nearing the end of an 11-game gauntlet with a 3-6 mark, including a loss to West Virginia. Iowa State and UCF (road) are the two remaining opponents before they get a 1-game breather against Oklahoma State.
TCU has zero excuses to play a schedule that ranks 341st in the non-conference. It’s embarrassing and their NCAA Tournament seed will (hopefully) reflect that. The Horned Frogs have played as many games in Quad 3/4 as they have played in Quad 1/2 (12).
If you don’t understand by now, the Big 12 schedule is the best asset that some bubble teams have. UCF and Kansas State are not tournament teams, but both will have plenty of opportunities to get into the conversation. Kansas State is only 1-5 in their last six games, but the win is over Kansas.

Big East

In:
UConn [22-2 (12-1); Quad 1: 8-1; NET: 4]
Marquette [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 11]
Creighton [17-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Villanova [13-11 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 41]
Saint John’s [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 46]
Butler [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 50]
Xavier [13-11 (7-6); Quad 1: 2-8; NET: 52]
Providence [15-9 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 58]
Seton Hall [15-9 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 76]

The regular season chase is down to two teams, as UConn and Marquette have separated themselves from the pack. The two squads have yet to play this year. Those games (2/17, 3/6) are must-see.

As for everyone else, I don’t think the Big East is a 3-bid league, but nobody on the bubble is making this easy.

Villanova has three Quadrant 1 wins and three Quadrant 3 losses. Their win over Seton Hall on Sunday helps their argument, but they are 3-7 in their last ten games.
Saint John’s is in trouble. It feels like it was five years ago when they had a 6-1 stretch that included wins over fellow bubblers Xavier, Butler, Villanova, and Providence. The only loss was a 4-point road loss to UConn. The momentum wasn’t sustained.
Seton Hall‘s slump hurts Butler, as their home loss to the Pirates is now in Quadrant 3. The road wins over Marquette and Creighton will stand out as they select the field.
Xavier‘s late-season surge hit a minor speed bump in their loss to Creighton. Their home losses to Delaware and Oakland crush their resume, but both are safely outside Quadrant 4 at least.
Providence had a signature win over Marquette on December 19th. The Friars are 5-7 since. It hasn’t been an easy schedule, but you can’t just rely on schedule strength alone.
We have seen teams with elevated NET rankings get in, and Seton Hall‘s wins over UConn and Marquette are huge. However, you can’t be losing to Villanova by 26, even if it was a road game. If they can beat Creighton or UConn on the road, they will be in good shape. Good luck.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [22-2 (11-2); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [17-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 21]

Bubble:
Michigan State [15-9 (7-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 23]
Nebraska [17-8 (7-7); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 53]
Northwestern [17-7 (8-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 56]
Iowa [14-10 (6-7); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 66]

I am not pulling Wisconsin from their “In” status, but they better wake up. The Badgers don’t have any bad losses (not even the Michigan loss qualifies) and are 10-8 in Quad 1/Quad 2. It will take a complete meltdown to make that stuff not matter.

Michigan State is two slots behind Wisconsin after their win over Illinois. The Spartans only have one road win this season (by two points over Maryland) and have back-to-back road contests against non-bubble teams Penn State and Michigan next. You don’t want to give the committee a reason to question your profile.
Nebraska is holding serve at home (15-1) but has struggled in road games (the only win is over Kansas State). Their remaining six games are against teams not projected to make the field, so the opportunity is there to fatten up their record.
Northwestern also lacks that big road win, but they did take Purdue to overtime in West Lafayette. That Quadrant 4 loss to Chicago State follows them around. Like Nebraska, their remaining schedule is light on NCAA Tournament squads, though they do play Iowa and Michigan State.
Iowa is close to death, but their best quality is their tough schedule. They need the Quad 1 wins, so having games remaining with Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois (2), and Northwestern gives them hope for a late-season surge.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [22-3 (13-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 20]
Drake [20-5 (11-3); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 51]

With a NET of 20, it will be tough for the committee to keep Indiana State off the bracket. That said, it is a mid-major conference, where losses can quickly destroy your NET. Hence, impossible to lock them in.
Drake went into Bradley’s home gym on Saturday and beat them by seven. That earned them an important third Quadrant 1 win, but they do have a pair of Quadrant 3 losses. If the Bulldogs want to be taken seriously, they need to sweep their remaining games and get to the conference tournament final.
Bradley is off my list after back-to-back home losses, one of which was to Evansville (Quadrant 4).

Mountain West

Bubble:
San Diego State [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 19]
New Mexico [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 22]
Colorado State [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 28]
Utah State [20-4 (8-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 29]
Nevada [19-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 47]
Boise State [16-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 48]
UNLV [13-9 (6-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 87]

The top four teams have the best NET. The next three teams have the most Quadrant 1 wins. This nutty conference won’t get seven bids. Six is a stretch but not impossible.

San Diego State hasn’t lost outside of Quadrant 1 and is 7-6 in Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2. Other than Utah State, their toughest remaining games are at home. They should be able to get to the finish line.
New Mexico lost a home game to UNLV on Saturday and now must travel to play Nevada and San Diego State. Their status as an NCAA Tournament team is solid enough to overcome losses there.
Colorado State is on a 4-game winning streak which includes wins over San Diego State and Boise State. The Rams have been up-and-down following their sizzling 9-0 start but may be steadying the ship.
Utah State, meanwhile, has struggled lately (3-3 in their last six games). They don’t want to lose to Wyoming this week (road game) leading into back-to-back showdowns with Colorado State and San Diego State.
Nevada has banked five impressive Quadrant 1 wins. The Wolf Pack are dinged because of their Quadrant 3 loss not-so-great out-of-conference slate. Can they add a third straight Quadrant 1 win on Tuesday night (New Mexico)?
Boise State has played an impressive 11 Quadrant 1 games, winning five of them. They played a strong out-of-conference schedule, defeating St. Mary’s along the way. Did I mention road conference wins over Nevada and New Mexico? All that said, the Broncos have back-to-back road losses to Colorado State and Utah State by a combined 32 points.
UNLV is not a bubble team at this juncture, even with those four Quadrant 1 wins. While they played a strong non-conference schedule, they own three Quadrant 4 losses. The Rebels will need to win most of their remaining Quadrant 1 games to even get their resume in the room.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [19-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [16-8 (7-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 38]
Washington State [18-6 (9-4); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 40]
Utah [15-9 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 49]
Oregon [16-8 (8-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 62]

Washington’s NET is not far off from Oregon’s, but I don’t yet see them as a bubble team. Can they beat Arizona and Washington State (both on the road) down the stretch?

Colorado is stuck on one Quad 1 victory (Washington on the road) but they are 5-3 in Quad 2. The Buffaloes lost both games to Arizona (by a combined 67 points!) and own only one road victory. Essentially, their resume is a solid non-conference schedule and zero bad losses.
Washington State‘s 5-game winning streak includes wins over Utah, Colorado, Washington (road), and Oregon (road). Additionally, the Cougars beat Arizona earlier this season. The rest of their schedule isn’t difficult, beyond playing Arizona on the road. I consider their resume as better than Colorado’s.
Utah followed up their 3-overtime loss to Arizona with a bad loss against Arizona State. Five of their last seven games are on the road, where the Utes are 1-5.
Oregon is 1-5 against potential NCAA Tournament teams (road win over Washington State). A lot of work is needed.

SEC

In:
Alabama [17-7 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 5]
Tennessee [17-6 (7-3), Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 6]
Auburn [19-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 7]

Bubble:
Kentucky [16-7 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 25]
Florida [16-7 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 33]
Mississippi State [16-8 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 36]
Texas A&M [15-8 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 37]
South Carolina [21-3 (9-2); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 45]
Ole Miss [18-5 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 59]

Kentucky has lost three straight home games and their remaining schedule isn’t easy. It is hard to imagine them being left out, but the bleeding must stop.
Florida is 14-0 in non-Quad 1 games and has recent victories over Mississippi State, Kentucky (road), and Auburn. The Gators have both games against Alabama as they try to better their Quad 1 resume.
Mississippi State won their first road game on Saturday, but it was over Missouri. The Bulldogs will continue to rely on their 6-0 neutral court mark. Their remaining schedule is tough.
Texas A&M has what many teams envy: Five Quad 1 wins. The Aggies mauled Tennesse by 16 on Saturday.
South Carolina looks like a lock on paper. It is February 13th and the Gamecocks lead the SEC and have 21 wins. Additionally, they are 5-2 on the road including a win over Tennessee. A bad non-conference schedule and a home loss to Georiga drag them down.
Ole Miss has work to do, and it starts tonight against Kentucky. After a home game against Missouri, they have a gauntlet against Mississippi State (road), South Carolina, and Alabama to get through.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [22-3 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 57]

McNeese’s NET has jumped. They need to win out and maybe they would get consideration if they lost in the conference title game. The Cowboys are 3-2 in Quad 1/2, with every game on the road.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [22-3 (9-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 54]

I have removed Appalachian State from consideration. As for James Madison, their resume is all about beating Michigan State, as their non-conference schedule beyond the Spartans was not good.

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [20-6 (11-0); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 14]
Gonzaga [18-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 24]
San Francisco [20-6 (9-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 65]

What more does St. Mary’s need to do? Nothing. It’s as close to a lock as a mid-major can be.
Gonzaga desperately needed a Quad 1 win and finally earned it at Kentucky. The Bulldogs have work to do – namely, avoid big upsets and beat San Francisco and St. Mary’s on the road.
San Francisco is taking care of business lately (five straight wins), but only the victory over Santa Clara is somewhat solid. The Dons still have a road game against St. Mary’s remaining. If the conference tournament goes as currently planned, they would get Gonzaga in the semi-finals.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [22-2 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 44]

The WAC is the nation’s 14th strongest conference, which isn’t so bad when you have 33 conferences. The Lopes have to win their remaining seven conference games to even have a shot at an at-large bid. We shouldn’t forget that they played a decent non-conference schedule that included wins over San Francisco and San Diego State + a 7-point loss to South Carolina that looks stronger by the day. If they lose in the conference tournament, they will be a much-talked-about squad by mid-major enjoyers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don’t have any thoughts this week, so I will get straight to the Top 25:

1. Purdue (22-2) (1) – In addition to their inside play, the Boilermakers are third in the country in 3-point percentage (40%).
2. UConn (22-2) (2) – The tiebreaker between the Huskies and Boilermakers is Quad 4 wins (Purdue is 3-0 while UConn is 8-0)
3. Houston (21-3) (5) – The Cougars lead the nation with an 18.9 average margin of victory.
4. Tennessee (17-6) (3) – Their loss to Texas A&M was their first double-digit loss this season.
5. Marquette (18-5) (6) – Their 7-game winning streak includes five by double digits.
6. North Carolina (19-5) (4) – Their 2-2 stretch has allowed Virginia and Duke to hang around in the conference title race.
7. Arizona (19-5) (8) – The Wildcats want the top seed in the West. They are 7-3 in Quad 1 and are ranked #3 in the NET and #4 in the KenPom.
8. Kansas (19-5) (7) – The Jayhawks are 6-4 in their last ten games. One of the wins was a double-digit effort over Houston, though.
9. Iowa State (18-5) (13) – It’s all about defense for the Cyclones (3rd in adjusted defense/5th in points allowed per game)
10. Auburn (19-5) (9) – The Tigers had zero Quadrant 1 wins for much of the season but now have two.
11. Illinois (17-6) (10) – The Fighting Illini fell 2.5 games behind Purdue this week, which likely ends their dream of a regular-season conference championship.
12. Duke (18-5) (17) – It isn’t always pretty, but the Blue Devils are 13-2 in their last 15 games.
13. Baylor (17-6) (14) – A 3-point loss at Kansas is no reason for concern. Their offense is strong (4th in 3-point percentage, for example) but the defense is shaky.
14. BYU (17-6) (15) – The Cougars are solid, but own only two road wins (UCF and West Virginia). That said, they are in every game they play.
15. Creighton (17-7) (11) – The Blue Jays are better than the underperforming middle of the Big East but haven’t sustained much momentum.
16. Alabama (17-7) (16) – Their motto is “catch us if you can” – Auburn did (99-81), LSU didn’t (109-92).
17. Saint Mary’s (20-6) (21) – The Gaels play slow and aren’t efficient offensively. Defense? No team has scored 80+ on them this season.
18. South Carolina (21-3) (23) – The computers remain skeptical, but the Gamecocks keep winning.
19. Wisconsin (16-8) (12) – After three close losses in a row, the Badgers hit rock bottom in a 22-point loss to Rutgers—time to wake up.
20. Colorado State (19-5) (NR) – It’s the story of the Mountain West – every week, you can interchange who the best team in the conference is.
21. San Diego State (18-6) (24) – While they have struggled against the top of the conference in road contests, the games are close.
22. Florida Atlantic (19-5) (19) – They came within a whisker of back-to-back losses to UAB and Wichita State. They lost the former in OT but won the latter in OT.
23. Dayton (19-4) (22) – No bad losses and a strong schedule keep them ranked. The rest of the schedule isn’t so good, so they need to take advantage of that.
24. Kentucky (16-7) (18) – Their defense is bad and there may not be enough time left to fix it.
25. Indiana State (22-3) (NR) – The beasts of the Missouri Valley lack a huge win and a bad loss. Very clean resume that needs to stay that way for at-large consideration.

Dropped Out:

New Mexico (19-5) (20) – They are 1-2 in their last two games, with both losses at home.
Utah State (20-4) (25) – Honestly, it came down to Indiana State/New Mexico/Utah State for that #25 slot.

Just Missed:

Gonzaga (18-6) – The Zags had zero Quadrant 1 wins before defeating Kentucky on the road this weekend.
Virginia (19-5) – We have been waiting for a team other than Duke/North Carolina/Clemson to establish themselves as an NCAA Tournament contender. The Cavaliers are up to #32 in the NET.
Nevada (19-5) – Recent wins over Utah State and San Diego State. Can they complete the trifecta against New Mexico on Tuesday?

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/9.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [18-5 (10-2), Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 10]
Duke [17-5 (8-3), Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 20]

Bubble:
Clemson [15-7 (5-6); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 29]
Wake Forest [15-7 (7-4); Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 33]
Virginia [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 34]
Virginia Tech [13-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 54]
Pittsburgh [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 61]

North Carolina beat Duke but is 1-2 in their last three games, opening up the conference title race…
Clemson is 4-4 in road games with wins over Alabama and North Carolina. The Tigers are 3-0 in neutral court games, including a win over TCU. This is gold for the committee.
Wake Forest has six Quadrant 2 wins but has a 0-3 Quadrant 1 record. The Demon Deacons have Duke and Virginia upcoming.
Virginia is one game behind North Carolina thanks to a 7-game winning streak. The road win over Clemson helps, but I still need to see more.
Ten Quadrant 1 games bolster Virginia Tech’s resume, though they are only 3-7. Neutral court wins over Boise State and Iowa State stand out.
Pittsburgh is new to the list, as a 5-1 stretch that includes wins over Duke and Wake Forest warrants a look. They have more Quad 3 losses (2) than Quad 1 wins (1).

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [18-5 (8-2); Quad 1: 2-1; NET: 28]
SMU [15-7 (7-3); Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 45]
Memphis [17-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 77]

Florida Atlantic didn’t do themselves any favors with their loss to UAB, and their NET is going in the wrong direction. The Owls are a game behind South Florida (not a bubble team) in the AAC but own two impressive non-conference neutral court wins (Butler, Virginia Tech). For now, those games are strong Quadrant 2 wins instead of weaker Quadrant 1 wins.
SMU‘s best win is a road conquest of Florida State. Their 2/22 game at Florida Atlantic will likely make or break the Mustangs.
Memphis stopped the bleeding with wins over Wichita State and Temple. The Tigers will need to do more than that. For example, sweeping Florida Atlantic later this season.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [19-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 18]

Richmond‘s undefeated conference run came to an end, which also took them off my bubble. The Spiders lack a resume-boosting opportunity for the rest of the season, as they only played Dayton once. As for the Flyers, a NET of 16, three Quadrant 1 wins and a strong strength of schedule places them close to lock status. However, Friday night’s ugly loss to VCU exposed their vulnerability: They have little to gain but much to lose with their remaining schedule. Losing at VCU is a Quad 1 loss, so it won’t kill them. Some of their future games, however, can be damaging.

Big 12

In:
Houston [20-3 (7-3), Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 1]
BYU [16-6 (4-5), Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 8]
Iowa State [17-5 (6-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 9]
Kansas [17-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 12]
Baylor [16-5 (6-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 14]

Bubble:
Oklahoma [17-6 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 27]
Cincinnati [15-7 (4-5); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 32]
TCU [16-6 (5-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 35]
Texas Tech [16-6 (5-4); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 37]
Texas [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 39]
UCF [13-8 (4-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 66]
Kansas State [15-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 78]

Six teams have three or four conference losses in the rowdy Big 12, which is one of the most competitive and impressive conferences you will ever find…Recent losses to Texas, Texas Tech, and UCF were missing opportunities for Oklahoma. Did they remedy the damage with the win over BYU?
I am not sure what to think about Cincinnati. Here comes clarity, however: Back-to-back home games against Houston at Iowa State
Butler’s recent solid play has boosted Texas Tech‘s out-of-conference schedule, even though they lost to the Bulldogs in overtime. Wins over Villanova and Michigan in the Battle 4 Atlantis were supposed to be impressive resume boosters.
If I am offended by Texas Tech’s out-of-conference schedule, my eyes should be bleeding over TCU‘s. We have a situation where their resume would be better if they were 13-9 with a strong out-of-conference slate instead of 16-6 with one of the worst non-conference schedules in college basketball.
Texas has four Quad 1 wins, three of which have come on the road (TCU, Oklahoma, Cincinnati). As stated, the committee will drool over that.
UCF and Kansas State are new additions. UCF gains some trust with the three Quadrant 1 wins but owns an awful Quad 4 loss to Stenson. The rest of their schedule is predictably brutal. Kansas State enters the conversation with their win over Kansas. That win broke a 4-game losing streak. The Wildcats have two non-conference losses (USC and Miami) which didn’t seem to be resume killers at the time. However, both teams have underachieved.

Big East

In:
UConn [21-2 (11-1); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [17-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 11]
Creighton [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 19]

Bubble:
Saint John’s [14-9 (6-6); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 43]
Villanova [12-11 (5-7); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 48]
Xavier [13-10 (7-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 50]
Butler [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 51]
Providence [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [15-8 (8-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 67]

By now, I was thinking I would have at least five teams in the “In” column. Instead, the bubble is a jumbled mess. The Big East has not lived up to expectations.
Saint John‘s is running in quicksand. Their resume is clean beyond a home loss to Michigan, but they are 1-6 in Quadrant 1 conference games. For now, the win over Utah isn’t enough.
Villanova is only 1-6 in their last seven games and was swept by Saint John’s this season. A 5-2 finish gets them to 17-13 (10-9) heading into the conference tournament, where they may need to do more to get in.
Death, taxes, and Xavier making a run at an NCAA Tournament bid. The Musketeers have three straight wins and start a stretch of games against Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. Can they at least split those games?
Butler was able to play UConn within nine on the road. The Bulldogs earned home wins over Marquette and Creighton plus a home non-conference victory over Texas Tech. Like with Xavier, we will learn more soon as they play a 6-game gauntlet against Providence, Marquette, Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Saint John’s.
Providence has only one impressive road win (Seton Hall), which will be held against them in the committee room. They are 6-8 in Quadrant 1/2. The lack of bad losses helps keep them afloat.
Seton Hall couldn’t help themselves in their last two games, but they could have severely hurt themselves. They took care of business by beating DePaul and Georgetown.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [21-2 (10-2); Quad 1: 8-2; NET: 2]
Illinois [17-5 (8-3); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 13]
Wisconsin [16-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Michigan State [14-9 (6-6); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 24]
Northwestern [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 55]
Nebraska [16-8 (6-7); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 57]
Iowa [13-10 (5-7); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 64]

The top three should feel safe, even if Wisconsin lost to Michigan. 17 of their 23 games are in Quadrant 1/2 and they own a 10-7 mark in those games.
Once you think Michigan State is putting everything together, they lose to Minnesota. The Spartans own a massive 24-point win over Baylor and a solid NET that is bolstered by a difficult schedule.
In recent weeks, Northwestern has had an overtime win over Illinois and an overtime loss to Purdue. Their final eight games are manageable, which is a double-edged sword as they likely want to win at least six of them to feel good about their resume.
In a key bubble matchup, Nebraska lost to Northwestern on the road, which followed their road overtime loss to Illinois. The Cornhuskers are 1-7 in true road games with none of those games within the Big Ten (Kansas State).
Iowa sticks around while I remove Maryland. The Buckeyes are hanging on by a string after their loss to Penn State. They must start winning some Quadrant 1 games and their two Quadrant 3 losses don’t help either.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [21-3 (12-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 22]
Drake [18-5 (10-3); Quad 1: 2-1; NET: 53]
Bradley [16-7 (9-4); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 59]

There is no question that Indiana State is likely the only team that will get serious consideration for an at-large. But I want to continue to evaluate two other squads.
Indiana State is doing what they need to do. Last Saturday, they avenged their earlier loss to Drake. Now for something equally tough: Winning their final seven games. The competition isn’t good so any loss can be damaging. I am looking closely at that February 17th road game against Southern Illinois.
Drake‘s neutral court win over Nevada recently moved into the Quadrant 1 bucket, which is a nice boost.
Bradley is 11-2 in their last 13 games. The key loss during this streak was an overtime loss to Indiana State. The Braves and Drake play each other twice down the stretch.

Mountain West

Bubble:
New Mexico [19-4 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 17]
San Diego State [18-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 21]
Colorado State [19-5 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 26]
Utah State [19-4 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 30]
Boise State [16-7 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 40]
Nevada [19-5 (6-4); Quad 1: 5-2; NET: 46]

Can the Mountain West earn six bids? It isn’t impossible, though they will continue to eat each other. One team that isn’t listed (UNLV) has three Quadrant 1 wins but is predictably being weighed down by three Quadrant 4 losses.

New Mexico is 8-3 in road/neutral games and their current 6-1 stretch includes wins over San Diego State, Utah State, and Nevada. The Lobos are closing in on being a lock.
San Diego State played a strong non-conference slate and has kept their noses clean most of the year. One blemish is having a tough time winning road games against strong teams (Gonzaga being an exception).
Colorado State has won four in a row after a 2-4 stretch. Their next three games are San Diego State (road), Utah State (home), and New Mexico (road). These games will have major conference title and bubble ramifications.
Utah State will try to get back on track after back-to-back double-digit losses to San Diego State and Nevada. They need to prevent falling into a trap when they play road games against Wyoming, Fresno State, and San Jose State down the stretch.
You cannot overlook a team with five Quadrant 1 wins, and two Mountain West squads have accomplished that. The first team is Boise State. The Broncos played a tough non-conference schedule. After their game at Utah State on Saturday, they go through a four-game stretch where they play Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Air Force. They need to sweep those games.
Nevada, the other squad with five Quad 1 wins, beat Utah State and San Diego State back-to-back this week. The Wolf Pack play their third consecutive big game against New Mexico on Tuesday. Not many teams in the country have improved their stock more recently.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [18-5 (9-3); Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [16-7 (7-5); Quad 1: 1-4; NET: 31]
Utah [15-8 (6-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 36]
Washington State [17-6 (8-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 41]
Oregon [16-7 (8-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 58]

While Arizona plays for a #1 seed out West, the rest of the conference is fighting for crumbs.
Colorado owns a top 75 out-of-conference schedule but their best wins were neutral-court triumphs over Richmond and Miami. The Buffaloes are 1-6 on the road, with their lone win over Washington. That said, they are 13-0 with a huge potential resume booster against Arizona on Saturday.
Utah also has only one road win, though it is an impressive victory against St. Mary’s. Their big chance at boosting their resume resulted in a 3-overtime home loss to Arizona on Thursday. Their remaining schedule offers an opportunity to end the regular season with a gaudy record.
Washington State is 4-3 in conference road games. They will get a shot at another one against Oregon on Saturday.
Speaking of Oregon, they cannot afford to lose that game. The winner will stay in the regular-season conference title race. Like Washington State, the Ducks own four road wins (though one of them was a random non-conference game against Florida A&M). One of their road wins was over Washington State earlier this season.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [17-5 (7-2), Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 5]
Alabama [16-7 (8-2); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 6]
Auburn [19-4 (8-2); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 7]

Bubble:
Kentucky [16-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 23]
Florida [15-7 (5-4); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 39]
South Carolina [20-3 (8-2); Quad 1: 3-2; NET: 42]
Mississippi State [15-8 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 44]
Texas A&M [14-8 (5-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 47]
Ole Miss [18-5 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 60]

Auburn went from zero Quad 1 wins last weekend to two this weekend. As one small negative, their road loss to Appalachian State has slipped from Quadrant 1 to Quadrant 2.  Regardless, they are safely in.

Kentucky is 6-3 in road/neutral games, including a win over North Carolina. The Wildcats are 1-3 in their last four games as they welcome Gonzaga to their gym in a rare February non-conference game.
Florida was on a 4-game winning streak before their one-point loss to Texas A&M. The Gators don’t own a bad loss but there is nothing to brag about when you have a 1-7 record in Quadrant 1 games.
South Carolina is playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to prove that their gaudy record isn’t a fluke. Their 6-game winning streak includes wins over Kentucky, Tennessee (road), Georgia (road), and Ole Miss. The rest of their schedule is rough, but it’s nice to have 20 wins in your bank account heading into mid-February.
Mississippi State is 0-6 on the road but 6-0 on neutral courts. Their home wins include wins over Tennessee and Auburn. On neutral courts, they defeated fellow bubblers Northwestern and Washington State as they won the Hall of Fame Classic. It’s not a sexy or clean resume (they lost to Southern, after all), but it’s one that many teams would love to have.
Texas A&M went on the road early in the season to take on Ohio State and SMU and defeated both. Both wins bolster their Quad 1 record, which is why I implore all teams to schedule good teams in the non-conference. Ohio State and SMU may not even get to the NCAA Tournament, but the Quad 1 formula allows you to gain momentum by beating them on the road.
Ole Miss entered conference play with a 13-0 record and Top 25 ranking. Life hasn’t been as easy in the SEC, as three of their losses are by double digits. In their most recent outing, they did play a tough game at South Carolina. Now, it’s off to Kentucky for a big potential resume booster.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [20-3 (9-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 69]

How are all games intertwined? VCU’s win over Dayton on Friday helped McNeese, as their win over VCU is now a Quad 1 win. How long will that last? We’ll see as it is on the very bottom of Quad 1.
This can all be semantics, as their brutal loss at Southeastern Louisiana (Quad 4) was likely one of the final nails in the coffin.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [21-3 (9-3); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 62]
Appalachian State [19-5 (10-2); Quad 1: 2-0; NET: 81]

James Madison is 21-1 against teams not named “Appalachian State” including a win over Michigan State. If they didn’t lose to Southern Miss and split with Appalachian State, their resume would be tempting. But it is fair to ask if a Sun Belt team with three conference losses deserves an at-large.
Appalachian State barely stays on the list after their road loss to Texas State. It is impressive to have a pair of Quad 1 wins, but they also own two Quadrant 4 losses.

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [19-6 (10-0); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 16]
Gonzaga [17-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 25]
San Francisco [19-6 (8-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 63]

St. Mary’s owns 11 straight wins, including San Francisco and Gonzaga road conquests. They own a strong non-conference schedule, winning games against New Mexico and Colorado State (road). There are six games left on the schedule. Even if they lose at home to San Francisco and Gonzaga, they should feel comfortable if they win their other four games. Those four games are against Portland, Pepperdine (twice), and San Diego. No excuses for losing any of those games.
Gonzaga had a shot at a Quad 1 win but lost at home to St. Mary’s. The Bulldogs have three Quad 1 games left, all on the road: Kentucky, San Francisco, and St. Mary’s.
San Francisco has fallen short of earning that one big win all season. They will need to sweep the rest of their games if they want any chance to get in. Included in those six games are rematches with St. Mary’s and Gonzaga plus both games against Santa Clara. The road game should fall into Quadrant 2.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [21-2 (11-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 49]

Grand Canyon’s only hope is sweeping their remaining eight games and getting to the conference final. They defeated San Diego State (home) and San Francisco (neutral) in the non-conference, with a loss to South Carolina (neutral) looking better by the day (the loss was by eight points). It’s a fun resume as their NET is right in line with bubble teams in bigger conferences, bolstered by a solid non-conference schedule and no bad losses (the loss to Seattle is in Quadrant 2, where the Lopes are 2-1)

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Is Duke “finished”?

“Don’t ever count out Duke” is a familiar refrain when the NCAA Tournament starts. The Blue Devils are overflowed with talent but continue to underwhelm. During the game against North Carolina, you never felt that the Tar Heels were in trouble. In a series that rarely disappoints, Saturday’s game felt flat mostly because Duke never appeared to be in it.

Teams can turn it on during tournament time. UConn went 13-7 in Big East play last season, losing to Marquette in the semifinals of the tournament. In 2022, North Carolina was a #8 seed that fought their way to the title game. I would never count any talented team out, and it is easily forgotten that Duke is 11-2 in their last 13 games. That said, most of the wins (beyond Baylor) won’t go into the “impressive” bucket. The weakness of the ACC allows you to see a path where Duke has a shot at the conference title when North Carolina visits at the end of the season, but they have to play better to make that game meaningful.

2. The value of Quadrant 1

Only 103 schools have won a Quadrant 1 game this season (28.5%). Of those 103 schools, only ten have won at least five. That is why when you see teams winning multiple Quad 1 games, you take notice.

Some oddities/interesting facts:

UNLV has the same Quad 1 record (3-4) as NCAA Tournament locks/bubble teams Alabama, Iowa State, Illinois, Texas Tech, Clemson, and Providence.  However, the Rebels are 3-3 in Quadrant 4, losing to Loyola Marymount, Southern, and Air Force. Win those games, and they are 15-6 (6-3) and likely somewhere on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Gonzaga’s loss to St. Mary’s dropped their Quadrant 1 record to 0-5. Historically, their Quad 1 records: 2021 (12-1); 2022 (11-4); 2023: 8-5. They will get two more shots during the regular season: February 10th at Kentucky and March 2nd at St. Mary’s.

Only three teams in college basketball have zero Quad 1/Quad 2 games: Western Kentucky, Marist, and Little Rock. Meanwhile, there is one “big conference” school with zero wins outside of Quadrant 4: DePaul. The Blue Demons are 3-19 (3-3 in Quadrant 4).

Top 25:

1. Purdue (21-2) (1) – Will the Boilermakers own a 27-2 record heading into their final two games (Illinois, Wisconsin)?
2. UConn (20-2) (2) – You hadn’t yet received your Christmas gifts the last time the Huskies lost.
3. Tennessee (16-5) (5) – 14 of their 21 games in Quad 1/2 (9-5). 12-2 in the last 14 games.
4. North Carolina (18-4) (3) – Random loss to Georgia Tech aside, the Tar Heels are in firm control of the ACC after beating Duke.
5. Houston (19-3) (4) – Did Kansas find a weakness in the Cougars’ defense, or was it just a random game? Kansas Shot 68.9% from the field.
6. Marquette (17-5) (7) – We are still two weeks away from the first UConn – Marquette showdown.
7. Kansas (18-4) (15) –  The Jayhawks own wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, UConn, and Houston.
8. Arizona (17-5) (9) – A team this good shouldn’t have three losses in the watered-down Pac-12. Maybe they are bored?
9. Auburn (18-4) (12) – The Tigers finally earn their first Quad 1 win by knocking off Ole Miss. Five of their six remaining February games offer Quad 1 opportunities.
10. Illinois (17-5) (10) – The best way to describe Illinois this season is “holding steady.”
11. Creighton (16-6) (6) – One way to lose a conference title is by losing home games (Villanova, Butler).
12. Wisconsin (16-6) (8) – So close to beating Nebraska and Purdue this week. Both coin flips went the other way. Impressive 10-6 mark in Quad 1/2.
13. Iowa State (16-5) (14) – Losing by two at Baylor doesn’t hurt, especially when it follows up a stretch where you beat Houston and Kansas.
14. Baylor (16-5) (22) – Strong schedule + 6 Quadrant 1 wins. There will continue to be ebbs and flows in the Big 12.
15. BYU (16-5) (20) – Why do the NET and KenPom love them so much? Even when they lose, the games are close.
16. Alabama (16-6) (24) – The nation’s best offense is 10-1 in their last 11 games. Clocked a good Mississippi State team by 32.
17. Duke (16-5) (13) – The Blue Devils are only 5-5 in Quad 1/2. There seems to be something “missing” with this squad.
18. Kentucky (15-6) (11) – Their adjusted defense ranking is now 101st in the nation. That won’t cut it.
19. Florida Atlantic (18-4) (16) – The opportunities for big wins aren’t plentiful, so they need to do their best to avoid bad losses.
20. New Mexico (18-4) (17) – Their dominant 5-game winning streak came to an end at home against Boise State.
21. Saint Mary’s (18-6) (25) – Their win over Gonzaga gives them a clear path to the WCC title.
22. Dayton (18-3) (21) – Plenty of chances for resume-boosting Quad 2 wins remain.
23. South Carolina (19-3) (NR) – A 5-game winning streak that includes a home win over Kentucky and (especially) a road win over Tennessee makes them deserving.
24. San Diego State (17-5) (23) – The Aztecs have alternated wins and losses going back to January 9th.  The win over Utah State on Saturday keeps them ranked.
25. Utah State (19-3) (18) – 7-3 in Quad 1/2 games.

Dropped Out:

Texas Tech (16-5) (19) – Their non-conference SOS will continue to weigh them down when they lose games. They are 3-5 in Quad 1/2 and 13-0 elsewhere.

Just Missed:

Indiana State (20-3) – Seven straight wins. Avenged their only conference loss (Drake) on Saturday.
Texas (15-7) – 4-4 in Quadrant 1 games. After losing to Houston in overtime at home, they knocked down TCU on the road.
Colorado State (17-5)/Boise State (16-6) – In a complex Mountain West, it is Boise State (5) and Colorado State (4) who own the most Quadrant 1 wins.

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games of Friday, 2/2.

ACC

In: 
North Carolina [17-4 (9-1), Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 9]
Duke [16-4 (9-2), Quad 1: 4-1; NET: 16]

Bubble:
Clemson [14-6 (4-5), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 33]
Virginia [16-5 (7-3), Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 44]
Virginia Tech [13-8 (5-5), Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 49]
Wake Forest [13-7 (5-4), Quad 1: 0-3; NET: 50]

Clemson doesn’t have enough capital to survive a fall into a deep abyss, but their strong non-conference schedule (which included wins over Alabama and TCU) will be held in high regard by the committee. If they win the games they are supposed to win, they will be in…Virginia has five straight wins but none of them are going to move the needle much. Their best asset is a remaining schedule that includes Clemson, Duke, and North Carolina…Wake Forest‘s NET keeps them on the fringes of contention, as does their five wins in Quadrant 2. They will need to at least split with Duke to be taken seriously…Virginia Tech has impressive wins over Boise State and (especially) Iowa State in the non-conference. They also beat Clemson at home, which currently sits in the Quad 2 bucket.

American Athletic

In:
None.

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [17-4 (7-1), Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 28]
SMU [13-7 (5-3), Quad 1: 0-2; NET: 42]
Memphis [15-6 (4-4), Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 77]

In early February, my criteria for “In” is strict. Florida Atlantic likely has nothing to worry about, however. The win over Arizona + winning the ESPN Invitational will weigh heavily in the room. However, they can’t go into an extended in-conference slump…Thanks to a solid NET, SMU has snuck into the conversation, but they are 1-6 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games. The committee will not overlook that…Memphis has lost four straight games with NET rankings of 100+, each one worse than the last one. They recently lost to Rice, who has a ranking over 200. A once solid resume has fallen into an abyss.

Atlantic 10

In:
None.

Bubble:
Dayton [18-3 (8-1), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 18]
Richmond [16-5 (8-0), Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 68]

The Atlantic 10 isn’t necessarily strong, but it does offer decent opportunities for good wins. Dayton owns three top 40 NET victories and their loss to Richmond isn’t going to hurt them. As for Richmond, they did what they needed to do by taking care of Dayton. Their issue is that they don’t play Dayton a second time. Five of their final ten games are against teams in the current NET Top 100. It would serve them well to sweep those games. Nobody said life on the bubble is easy.

Big 12

In:
Houston [19-2 (6-2), Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 1]
BYU [15-5 (3-4), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 6]
Iowa State [16-4 (5-2); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 10]
Kansas [16-4 (5-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 13]
Baylor [14-5 (4-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 15]

Bubble:
Oklahoma [16-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 27]
Texas Tech [16-4 (5-2); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 29]
TCU [16-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 30]
Cincinnati [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 35]
Texas [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 39]

For now, I am leaving Kansas State and UCF off the list, but they can easily enter it with some quality future wins.  I will admit that Baylor is a borderline “in” instead of “bubble,” but a 16th-ranked NET is not going to be left out. Their margin for error is simply smaller than that of a team like Houston…Oklahoma is hurt by a bad non-conference slate and a 2-4 recent record that could be suggesting a deep dive from their red-hot start. The Big 12 will continue to offer them opportunities for improvement…Texas Tech‘s non-conference slate was abysmal and they lost to a pair of Big East schools (Butler, Villanova). That said, they recently completed a tough stretch in their Big 12 slate with a 2-2 record. The wins were over BYU and Oklahoma. The loss to Houston was ugly…Sensing a theme? Oklahoma and Texas Tech are being dinged by their non-conference. Their schedule looks like a gauntlet compared to TCU, who played one of the worst non-conference slates in the country. I think the Horned Frogs have potential as a surprise exclusion without a big finish to their season…After beating BYU on 1/6, Cincinnati is 2-5. Things are about to become very dicey as their next three games are against Texas Tech, Houston, and Iowa State…Texas had two big chances at a big non-conference win and lost both (UConn and Marquette). The Longhorns are 3-5 in their last eight games. While I recognize that the committee doesn’t put much (if any) weight in that, it does show me a trend with an unforgiving month of February.

Big East

In:
UConn [19-2 (9-1); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 4]
Marquette [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 14]
Creighton [16-6 (7-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 17]

Bubble:
Saint John’s [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 38]
Butler [14-7 (6-5); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 45]
Xavier [11-10 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 48]
Villanova [11-10 (4-6); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 53]
Providence [14-7 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 55]
Seton Hall [14-8 (7-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 66]

The Big East was supposed to be stronger than this. They are a solid 4th in the NET, but the middle of the league isn’t nearly as strong as I thought it would be. Who will separate from the pack? St. John’s owns one good non-conference win (Utah) and lost to Michigan, Dayton (good loss), and Boston College. Their best conference win thus far was a road victory over Villanova. There is work to do…Butler is on a 4-game winning streak and owns a win over Texas Tech in the non-conference. Their biggest conquests, however, are impressive road wins over Marquette and Creighton…One of the strongest schedules in the nation is what keeps Xavier around despite the pedestrian record. That said, they are 1-2 in Quadrant 3 and desperately need to pull off big wins in February…Villanova struggled in the Big 5 Classic (0-3), which was eye-popping given their past in those games. That said, they won the Battle 4 Atlantis by defeating Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. Will the real Wildcats please stand up?… Providence has a non-conference win over Wisconsin and a few solid Big East wins (at Seton Hall, Marquette). That’s nice and all, but their 5-7 Quad 1/Quad 2 record needs some work…Seton Hall‘s season has been up and down and is currently down. They own wins over UConn and Marquette and a crazy 3-overtime loss to Creighton. Their loss to USC in the non-conference didn’t seem like a huge deal at the time, but USC’s unexpectedly poor season is hurting their resume.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [20-2 (9-2); Quad 1: 7-2; NET: 2]
Wisconsin [16-5 (8-2); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 11]
Illinois [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 12]

Bubble:
Michigan State [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 22]
Nebraska [16-6 (6-5); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 57]
Northwestern [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 58]
Iowa [13-9 (5-6); Quad 1: 0-6; NET: 62]
Maryland [13-8 (5-5); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 78]

What a difference between the top three and the middle tier. I almost crossed off Iowa and Maryland, but then my alarm bells started to go off: If not them, then who? Yes, I am saying I placed them on the bubble because someone has to be there…Michigan State doesn’t have a bad loss on their resume (9-0 in Quad 3/Quad 4) but they are struggling badly against strong competition. Their two best wins are outside the Big Ten: Baylor and Indiana State (you can laugh, but the Sycamores are 24th in the NET). Within the Big Ten? Maryland (79th)…Nebraska just scored a big home comeback victory over Wisconsin, giving them a much-needed third Quadrant 1 win. They also own wins over Purdue and Northwestern. If they do the unlikely and beat Illinois on the road, it’s going to be very hard to say “no” to them…Northwestern is the other team to knock off Purdue and their four Quadrant 1 wins place them in a good position. Their major blemish was their inexcusable home loss to Chicago State…I already spoke about Iowa and Maryland. Iowa needs some Quadrant 1 conquests to even be considered. Maryland has a few of those but is only 4-6 within Quad 1/Quad 2. Work is needed.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [19-3 (10-1); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 24]
Drake [17-4 (9-2); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 52]
Bradley [15-6 (8-3); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 60]

When you are a mid-major, you have to take care of any chances you get to make an impression. Indiana State‘s profile is solid, but it would look better if they could have pulled an upset over Alabama or Michigan State. Their best non-conference win is over Toledo, which clinched the Big Dawgs Classic tournament. If they put together a 26-5 regular season and lose late in the conference tournament, their resume will be a debated one…Drake defeated Indiana State and plays them again this weekend. They pulled off a solid win over Nevada in the non-conference…Bradley owns one of the conference’s biggest wins, knocking off Utah State in the non-conference to go along with Vermont, a team that traditionally dominates the America East. That said, they own both a Quad 3 and Quad 4 loss.
If the season ended today, only Indiana State would get serious consideration.

Mountain West

Bubble:
New Mexico [18-4 (6-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 19]
Utah State [19-2 (7-1); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 20]
San Diego State [16-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 23]
Colorado State [16-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 32]
Boise State [15-6 (6-2); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 43]
Nevada [17-5 (4-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 56]

The wacky Mountain West should get four bids with a possibility of five. New Mexico was on a 5-game winning streak that included wins over San Diego State and Utah State before succumbing to Nevada. The best way to sum up their profile is “clean.”…Utah State only has that singular Quad 1 win but is 6-0 in Quad 2. Five of their next six games are resume-boosting opportunities…San Diego State will be bolstered in that selection room by their third-best non-conference strength of schedule. They own wins over Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga. In conference play, however, they have won the games they are supposed to win while struggling in tougher games…Colorado State sent out an early warning shot when they defeated Creighton. The Rams played a tough non-conference schedule which also included a win over Colorado and a close loss to St. Mary’s…Boise State‘s four Quadrant 1 wins set them up nicely for the rest of the season. The Broncos are 7-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2. They have a road trip next week to Colorado State and Utah State…Nevada picked a bad time to start losing, as they are 1-4 in their last five games. One positive is that the win is over Colorado State. The one negative is that one of the losses was against Wyoming. The Wolf Pack defeated TCU on their road to the Diamond Head Classic title.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [16-5 (7-3); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 3]

Bubble:
Colorado [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 31]
Utah [14-7 (5-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 34]
Washington State [15-6 (6-4); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 40]
Oregon [15-6 (7-3); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 51]

The Pac-12 has been Arizona and the rest, though Oregon is currently tied at the top of the conference. Colorado‘s neutral court win over Miami has taken a hit, as the Hurricanes haven’t lived up to early-season expectations. However, their win over Richmond has gained some steam as Richmond continues to play well…Utah is another team that took advantage of St. Mary’s early season struggles, as they beat them on the road. BYU was another big early-season feather in their cap. They were swept when they took a trip through Washington last week. Now, they have a three-game home stretch that includes games against Colorado and Arizona…Washington State is in the middle of a 5-1 stretch that includes wins over Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. For now, beating Utah and Colorado at home are strong Quad 2 victories instead of Quad 1 wins…Oregon beat Georgia in Las Vegas and lost by eight to Alabama in Florida. They defeated Washington State earlier in the season and can complete a sweep next week.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [15-5 (5-2), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 5]
Alabama [15-6 (7-1); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 7]
Auburn [17-4 (6-2); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 8]

Bubble:
Kentucky [15-5 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 25]
Florida [15-6 (5-3); Quad 1: 1-6; NET: 36]
Mississippi State [14-7 (3-5); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 37]
South Carolina [18-3 (6-2); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 41]
Texas A&M [12-8 (3-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 46]
Ole Miss [18-3 (5-3); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 59]

Let me start with Auburn. The committee loves Quad 1 wins, and they don’t have any. The committee will also see the 8th place ranking in the NET combined with the 5th place ranking in the KenPom. It’s a situation where they don’t have that big win but they are unbeaten in every other quadrant…It would take a massive crash for Kentucky to be left out. They own a neutral-court win over North Carolina but are looking for that difference-making conference win…Like Auburn, Florida struggles in Quad 1 but has piled up wins everywhere else. They have four straight wins, including their only Quad 1 win (at Kentucky) last time out…Mississippi State won the Hall of Fame Tip-off against two solid bubble teams (Washington State, and Northwestern). Within the conference, they have defeated Tennessee and Auburn. The NET will always be impacted if you lose in Quad 4, and they did just that (Southern)…South Carolina checks a lot of boxes. The 4-2 record in Quad 1 stands out. What holds them back? A poor non-conference schedule. Eight of their 18 wins are in Quad 4, and they own a loss in Quad 3. All this said they have won four in a row – including wins over Kentucky and Tennessee (on the road)…

Texas A&M has four Quad 1 wins and played a tough non-conference schedule. The committee will love that, even if they finish 18-13 in the regular season. Their home loss to Memphis didn’t look so bad until Memphis turned into a pumpkin…Ole Miss has the combination of a gaudy record and a meh non-conference slate. They have played 14 games in Quad 3/Quad 4 (14-0) and seven games in Quad 1/Quad 2 (4-3). Their remaining schedule is tough beyond two games against Missouri.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [19-2 (8-0); Quad 1: 0-1; NET: 65]

There shouldn’t be any illusion that McNeese has a great chance to get in. Their Quad 1 loss was to Louisiana Tech, a team that will not be on the bubble. They are an impressive 3-1 in Quadrant 2, the most impressive win being a road win over VCU. So, why are their chances slim (to be kind about it)? Because their best remaining opponent is Texas A&M-Corpus Christie, a team that is ranked 202nd in the NET. It’s going to be hard to improve on their current standing, but it will be rather easy to crush their resume. One conference loss will likely do them in.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [19-3 (7-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 63]
Appalachian State [18-4 (9-1); Quad 1: 2-0; NET: 73]

James Madison was the “big hope” in the mid-major world earlier in the season. Their 14-0 start included a win at Michigan State. However, they have lost three in-conference games, putting them in a place where they may be briefly discussed with little chance to make it…Appalachian State swept James Madison already and has a mightily impressive home win over Auburn (that’s right – the Tigers played a game on a mid-majors court!). Their resume would be more impressive if they didn’t lose their first two Division I gams this season (Northern Illinois and Oregon State).

West Coast

Bubble:

St. Mary’s [17-6 (8-0); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]
Gonzaga [16-5 (7-1); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 26]
San Francisco [17-6 (6-2); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 61]

Interestingly, other than St. Mary’s, the only other team in the conference with Quad 1 wins is Santa Clara (they have two). However, their overall resume leaves them short of the bubble…St. Mary’s started slow. After their first eight games, they were 3-5 (and one of the wins was outside of Division 1). Luckily for them, most of the losses weren’t killers, as they own the 19th-best non-conference schedule that includes wins over New Mexico and Colorado State (road). The Mountain West is a good conference to target if you want a juicy non-conference ranking, and St. Mary’s scheduled five games against the league…It isn’t normal to see Gonzaga entering February without a Quad 1 win. They have won five straight games and get a chance at their first Quad 1 win on Saturday when they welcome St. Mary’s to their gym…San Francisco has to be frustrated. Their non-conference losses include Boise State (road by 5), Grand Canyon (neutral by 4), and Utah State (neutral by 1 – but it was played in Salt Lake City). Within the conference, they lost at Gonzaga by five. They desperately needed to win a few of those games, as they are 13-0 in Quadrant 4, which won’t impress anyone.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [20-2 (10-1); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 47]

Grand Canyon’s in-conference loss to Seattle (12-9; NET: 123) stings. In the non-conference, they are elevated by a win over San Diego State and a close (75-68) loss to South Carolina. The Lopes are 3-1 in Quadrant 2, including a win over San Francisco on a neutral court. Luckily for them, the Seattle loss falls in this quadrant, allowing them to claim that they have a clean resume. Is there any hope for them to make it? If they go 29-2 in the regular season and make it to the conference title game, would that be enough? It is very hard to say. The first step to that isn’t necessarily easy – winning nine in a row down the stretch against conference opponents isn’t easy for anyone. However, when you play in the WAC, a gaudy record and doing something of significance in the non-conference is a prerequisite for at-large consideration.

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. Are any mid-majors at-large contenders?

The answer is simplistic if you include the Mountain West as a mid-major conference: Of course, there will be at-large mid-major teams!

However, most basketball fans wouldn’t consider the Mountain West as a true mid-major. Amongst conferences that traditionally only receive one bid, you can look towards the Ivy League (Princeton) and Missouri Valley (Indiana State) as two possibilities. Early-season darling James Madison still owns a gaudy record (18-3) but has lost both of their games to in-conference rival Appalachian State (17-4, 8-1). The Mountaineers could have found themselves in the conversation if not for a loss to Troy. That said, they own a non-conference win over Auburn. Their big problem is that James Madison is the only team that gives them any kind of in-conference resume boost. Grand Canyon could become the first Division 1 school to reach 20 wins this season (the WCC school is 19-2). The Lopes have a win over San Diego State but lost a game to Seattle inside the conference.

I guess if I am going to include those teams, I should at least mention McNeese out of the Southland. The Cowboys are 18-2 and are ranked 64th in the NET. They own the longest current winning streak in the nation. However, they own four wins outside of Division I, and their wins over VCU and Michigan (both having down years) are decent Quad 2 wins instead of Quad 1 conquests.

2. The KenPom Top 20

No team in the nation currently owns a Top 10 ranking in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. It isn’t a wild take to say that teams that rank highly in both categories tend to be dangerous when the NCAA Tournament comes around.

How many teams are in the top 20 in both categories? A handful:
Purdue (2nd ranked offense, 13th ranked defense)
Arizona (5th, 16th)
Houston (14th, 1st)
North Carolina (15th, 4th)
Tennessee (18th, 2nd)
Auburn (19th, 5th)

As dominant as UConn is showing to be, you may be surprised not to see them on the list. The Huskies are 3rd offensively and 23rd defensively.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (19-2) (1) – Toughest strength of schedule, second-best adjusted offense, survived a trip to Rutgers (they usually don’t).
2. UConn (18-2) (2) – Like Purdue, 7-2 in Quad 1 games. I find Purdue’s overall resume to be stronger.
3. North Carolina (17-3) (3) – Longest winning streak amongst power conference schools (10). Only trail McNeese (13) for the longest in Division 1.
4. Houston (18-2) (4) – The Cougars continue to suffocate opponents. The move to the Big 12 hasn’t changed that.
5. Tennessee (15-4) (5) – Are we starting to see the best-of-the-best separate from the pack? Of course, it is just as likely that the Top 5 will all lose this week.
6. Creighton (16-5) (10) – Losses to Marquette & UConn were on the road. They will get a chance at home revenge in the second half.
7. Marquette (15-5) (13) – One of my preseason favorites is playing better. Have yet to play UConn this season.
8. Wisconsin (16-4) (14) – Six Quad 1 wins and 10-4 in Quad 1/2. Only Purdue has more wins in Quad 1/2 (11).
9. Arizona (15-5) (6) – Only 7-5 since 8-0 start but their resume remains solid. Need to stop losing games in a mediocre (at best) Pac-12.
10.  Illinois (15-5) (9) – Solid-but-not-spectacular resume has only one major blemish (home loss to Maryland).
11. Kentucky (15-4) (8) – The defense, maligned most of the year, showed up against Arkansas.
12. Auburn (16-4) (7) – They are getting a few opportunities but remain winless in Quadrant 1 (0-3). The Tigers have the most Quadrant 2 wins (6) in the nation, however.
13. Duke (15-4) (12) – Quadrant 2 is their roadblock (0-3). 10-1 in their last 11 games, even if it doesn’t feel that way.
14. Iowa State (16-4) (NR) – Big jump feels deserved after adding Kansas to their conquest of Houston.
15. Kansas (16-4) (11) – Struggling in conference road games. Losing at Iowa State isn’t so bad, but Central Florida and West Virginia are bothersome.
16. Florida Atlantic (17-4) (18) – The Owls have lost one game in each of the four quadrants. The AAC is tough at the top, and I think they will emerge from the pack.
17. New Mexico (18-3) (22) – In their last five games, their average margin of victory is 20.8 (91.2 points per game)
18. Utah State (18-2) (20) – They aren’t quite as hot as New Mexico, but the Aggies remain at the top of the Mountain West.
19. Texas Tech (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back wins over ranked opponents ease some of my concerns.
20. BYU (15-5) (16) – The Cougars have split their ten Quadrant 1/Quadrant 2 games.
21. Dayton (16-3) (19) – The Flyers haven’t lost outside of Quadrant 1 (3-3). The A-10 has a load of Top 100 NET teams, but only Dayton is in the Top 50 (16th).
22. Baylor (14-5) (16) – Three straight losses to unranked teams, though all three could have gone either way. 5-5 in last ten games.
23. San Diego State (16-4) (NR) – 20th ranked schedule. Would like to see them improve on their 2-4 Quadrant 1 mark.
24. Alabama (14-6) (NR) – An insanely tough schedule and the nation’s top adjusted offense makes them a legitimate Top 25 squad at this stage.
25. Saint Mary’s (16-6) (NR) – Eight straight wins and 7-0 in the WCC. To love them means overlooking two Quadrant 3 losses (3-2 in Quadrant 1)

Dropped Out:

Oklahoma (15-5) (17) – 2-4 in their last six games and 5-5 in their last ten games. 318th non-conference schedule doesn’t help, either.
Seton Hall (13-8) (21) – That crazy three overtime loss to Creighton has manifested into a 3-game losing streak.
Colorado State (15-5) (23) – The Rams started hot but are now 3-4 in conference play. The Mountain West is not for the faint of heart.
Memphis (15-5) (24) – The Tigers have lost three in a row in a conference that is pretty good but hardly good enough to justify losing three in a row.
Princeton (15-2) (25) – If they want at-large consideration, their road loss to Cornell should be their only loss until the conference tournament.

Just Missed:

TCU (15-5) – The Horned Frogs won a 3-OT thriller at Baylor and have a win over Houston. It was a very close call.
Indiana State (18-3) – Is it time to pay attention to the Missouri Valley power? The Sycamores have zero losses outside of Quadrant 1 and boast a strong offense. Defense is a bugaboo.
South Carolina (17-3) – Are they as good as the gaudy record? We will find out as their remaining schedule is brutal (both Tennessee games, both Ole Miss games, Auburn…)

1. Computers!

I love it when there is a debate over the computer rankings. I don’t agree with some of the rankings either. However, the committee has always said that computers only paint a part of the picture. I look heavily at the KenPom and NET because they do. If I am going to justify a ranking, statistical output is the best way to do it. That said, anyone can just list teams 1-25 based on the NET and call it their “ballot.”

There are so many moving parts that it seems worthless to try to make sense of everything. Gonzaga surging in the NET after wins over Pepperdine and San Diego doesn’t pass our eye test and for good reason. However, computers try to dig deeper than that. Their win over Syracuse gains value when the Orange beat Miami later in the season. As humans, most of us likely forgot that Gonzaga even played Syracuse this year, never mind trying to apply a formula that elevates that win later.

Seton Hall also falls into this trap – every time Rutgers or USC continues to lose and underachieve, it kills the Pirates because they lost to both teams. However, the committee will reward them for strong play in a strong conference.

2. Is there anything Grand Canyon/James Madison/etc. can do to enhance their resumes?

The answer is no, unfortunately. Grand Canyon losing to Seattle is a nightmare. James Madison losing two conference games may as well be a nail in the coffin. This goes back to the computer debate: These teams gain if their big upset victims play well. For Grand Canyon, that is San Diego State (and San Francisco, to an extent). For James Madison, that’s Michigan State.

I am a believer in the mid-majors, as they continue to prove through their tournament play that the best mid-majors are at least on par with the middle-of-the-pack big conference schools. In some cases, they are much better. The problem is that an at-large bid for these schools requires big non-conference wins, a strong schedule, and a gaudy record. The lack of a gaudy record, despite big non-conference wins, likely kept Monmouth (27-7 before the NIT) out of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. The committee’s mantra is to schedule tough games and win a few of them. However, you better not lose games to in-conference rivals!

3. How good is Princeton?

We may find out this week. There are three Ivy League schools in the NET Top 100: Princeton (31), Cornell (89). and Yale (96). Cornell is on a 3-game winning streak and is 4-0 at home. Yale is on a 5-game winning streak and played Gonzaga and Kansas within 15 points on the road. That may not impress you, but those are decent showings for an Ivy League squad.

Princeton’s next two games are road games against…

Cornell and Yale.

Top 25:

1. Purdue (17-2) (1) – 8-2 in road/neutral games.
2. UConn (17-2) (2) – 6-2 in Quad 1. They are behind Purdue because the Boilermakers have played only three Quad 4 games, while UConn has played eight.
3. North Carolina (15-3) (3) – Remain on cruise control. Their defense has stepped up.
4. Houston (16-2) (6) – Their two losses are by a combined five points on the road.
5. Tennessee (14-4) (7) – Doing more than enough against one of the toughest schedules in the country.
6. Arizona (14-4) (8) – The only shock is how they have lost two games in a weak Pac-12.
7. Auburn (16-2) (14) – The only thing holding them back is the lack of Quad 1 games (0-2). Their 6-0 record in Quad 2 is tied for best in the land (Memphis).
8. Kentucky (14-3) (9) – The Wildcats lead the nation in scoring (91.6) and are 4th in offensive efficiency.
9. Illinois (14-4) (13) – Rutgers is a bad offensive team but a solid defensive squad. The Illini torched them with an 86-point effort.
10. Creighton (14-5) (16) – Five road victories. Amongst power conference squads, no other team has more than three (Memphis, out of the AAC, also has five)
11. Kansas (15-3) (4) – 2-2 in last four. The two losses were to Central Florida (67th in the NET) and West Virginia (154th).
12. Duke (13-4) (5) – If you are missing players and lose to North Carolina, that is forgivable. But Pitt at home?
13. Marquette (13-5) (17) – Earned their second Quad 1 road win by defeating St. John’s. 4th toughest schedule after Purdue, Tennessee, Arizona.
14. Wisconsin (14-4) (12) – Bad loss at Penn State has the potential to drop into Quad 3. Their resume is more steady than it is overwhelming.
15. BYU (14-4) (19) – The Cougars continue to rise to the challenge of their new conference. The Iowa State win was a top-ten Quad 1 victory.
16. Baylor (14-4) (10) – A pair of road losses by a combined six points isn’t so bad. I also can’t overlook it completely.
17. Oklahoma (15-3) (23) – Earned their first road win of the season (Cincinnati), a game that also qualified as a Quad 1 victory.
18. Florida Atlantic (15-4) (20) – UTSA lost to Memphis 107-101 two weeks ago and 112-103 to Florida Atlantic last week. They aren’t good, but they are fun.
19. Dayton (15-2) (24) – 6-2 in Quadrant 1/2 (all games on the road or neutral courts).
20. Utah State (17-2) (15) – The Aggies remain unbeaten outside Quadrant 1, but are only 1-2 in Quadrant 1.
21. Seton Hall (13-6) (21) – 29th SOS, 4-4 in Quadrant 1. That was a brutal loss to Creighton – the Pirates would be in my top 15 if the coin flip went the other way.
22. New Mexico (16-3) (NR) – Back-to-back Quadrant 1 wins are enough to convince me. The Mountain West is chaos.
23. Colorado State (15-3) (22) – Two wins, but a ding for needing overtime to beat Air Force at home. The non-conference destruction of Creighton carries weight.
24. Memphis (15-4) (11) – I ding somewhat even if a team loses to good squads. South Florida and Tulane? Yikes.
25. Princeton (15-1) (NR) – Correct: Zero games in Quad 1. Also correct: They are passing most of their tests beyond the 4-point loss to St. Joseph’s.

Dropped Out:

TCU (13-5) (18) – 2-3 in a tough stretch against Kansas, Oklahoma, Houston, Cincinnati, Iowa State. 2-5 in Quadrant 1/2 games.
San Diego State (15-4) (25) – I will forever applaud their strength of schedule. More games in Quad 1/2 (10) than in Quad 3/4 (7).

Just Missed:

Texas Tech (15-3) – The Big 12 has helped improve their SOS. We’ll see where they are at after tough road games against TCU and Oklahoma.
Utah (14-5) – The Utes are 5-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 games, including 2-2 in Top 25 Quad 1 games. Wins over Saint Mary’s and BYU bolstered their non-conference resume.
Iowa State (14-4) – Quad 1 road wins are gold, and they finally earned one. The computers have loved them all season – I still find their overall resume to be light.

1. Sorting out the Mountain West

It’s too early to conclude anything about the MWC, but the chaos we expected is coming to fruition. Colorado State, who looked like the best team during non-conference play, lost to the two remaining unbeaten conference squads last week (Utah State and Boise State). Speaking of Utah State, the Aggies pushed their winning streak to 15 games with their exciting road win over UNLV. Their 15-game winning streak with Samford for tops in the country. The Bulldogs started 0-2 (including a loss to Purdue) before going on their run. Their high-tempo style (only Kennesaw State has a better Adjusted Tempo) has allowed them to score a country-leading 91.5 points per game.

Back to the Mountain West: Six of the conference’s 11 squads are ranked between 20 (Utah State) and 44 (Boise State) in the NET. Will all six make the Big Dance?  Last year, four teams made it and I would guess we’ll end up around that number again.

2. A new mid-major threat?

For years, New Mexico State ruled the Western Athletic Conference. The Aggies, who canceled their season last year, have moved on to Conference USA. It looks like Grand Canyon wants to become the new bully. Off to an impressive 16-1 start that includes a win over San Diego State, the Lopes will try to make it to their third NCAA Tournament in the last four years. In 2021, they lost to #2 seed Iowa by 12. They repeated that feat two years later, losing to #2 Gonzaga by the same margin. Under the leadership of one-time NCAA Tournament hero Bryce Drew, they are 80-28.

While I wouldn’t consider them an at-large threat, their #39 NET ranking would give them a better NCAA Tournament seed if you want to look into the deep future. For now, they need to keep winning while hanging around the fringes of the Top 25.

3. Is Gonzaga in trouble?

The Bulldogs are barely hanging on to a Top 50 ranking in the NET after their loss at Santa Clara. They are 0-4 in Quadrant 1 and have zero high-quality Quadrant 2 wins (the wins over Syracuse and USC were bottom-half Quad 2 conquests). When was the last time two other teams in the WCC had a better NET ranking than Gonzaga? That is where we are at, as red-hot St. Mary’s (five straight wins; 31st) and San Francisco (six straight wins; 41st) both rank higher.

I won’t say they are in danger of missing out on the NCAA Tournament if they lose in the conference tournament, but they can’t afford too many stumbles. It is their worst position in decades.

4. The crazy week behind us

This was one of those weeks where my Top 25 will have a lot of movement. However, it was so crazy that you find yourself placing most teams in roughly the same positions.

In the big multi-bid leagues, two teams have 9-game winning streaks (Texas Tech and Auburn) though I would argue that nobody is playing better than North Carolina, owners of six consecutive double-digit wins.

Top 25

1. Purdue (15-2) (1) – Overall resume still rules the day…

2. UConn (15-2) (5) – One of the few to go unscathed last week.

3. North Carolina (13-3) (7) – Is any big conference school playing better?

4. Kansas (14-2) (2) – Nice bounceback win over Oklahoma following the UCF loss.

5. Duke (13-3) (8) – The Blue Devils have sneakily won eight in a row.

6. Houston (14-2) (3) – The computers love them and, to be fair, both losses this week were close road contests.

7. Tennessee (12-4) (4) – No bad losses, but only 2-4 in Quadrant 1.

8. Arizona (12-4) (9) – 4-3 in their last seven games, but still are second to Purdue in Quadrant 1 wins (five)

9. Kentucky (12-3) (6) – 8th ranked adjusted offense. 54th-ranked adjusted defense. That sums it up.

10. Baylor (14-2) (13) – They’ve awakened since the back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Duke.

11. Memphis (15-2) (14) – Ten straight wins is worth something nowadays. Their win over UTSA was crazy.

12. Wisconsin (13-3) (18) – Death, taxes, and the Badgers exceeding expectations.

13. Illinois (12-4) (10) – The top five was staring them in the face…then they lost to Maryland. Oy very.

14. Auburn (14-2) (25) – 0-2 in Quadrant 1, but metrically a top ten offense and defense.

15. Utah State (16-1) (19) – A fun squad will try to end their 10-game NCAA Tournament losing streak in 2024.

16. Creighton (13-4) (20) – The Blue Jays have four straight wins after a 1-3 stretch.

17. Marquette (11-5) (11) – The Golden Eagles are in a slump – can they grind their way out of it like Creighton did?

18. TCU (13-3) (NR) – Last 3 games: 2-point loss at Kansas, 9-point win over Oklahoma, 1-point win over Houston. That works.

19. BYU (13-3) (12) – San Diego State remains their signature win this season.

20. Florida Atlantic (13-4) (21) – Survived Tulane to keep their spot in the Top 25.

21. Seton Hall (12-5) (NR) – It’s a chaotic resume, but one that includes a 4-2 Quadrant 1 record.

22. Colorado State (13-3) (17) – Road games are tough in the MWC. Hard to fault losses to Utah State and Boise State but they will need to protect their home court.

23. Oklahoma (13-3) (15) – No bad losses, but only one win in Quadrant 1 (three losses).

24. Dayton (13-2) (NR) – Ten straight wins + three Quadrant 1 wins. Much the best in the A-10, but two others are also unbeaten (Richmond, Rhode Island)

25. San Diego State (14-3) (16) – Tight for the last spot but their SOS keeps them in.

Dropped Out:

Cincinnati (12-4) (22) – No shame in back-to-back losses to Texas and Baylor (especially Baylor, since it was a 3-point road loss)

Clemson (12-4) (23) – Resume is still solid (zero losses outside Quadrant 1) but only 3-4 after 9-0 start.

South Carolina (14-2) (24) – Hard to keep them in after a brutal 74-47 loss to Alabama.

Just Missed:

Princeton (13-1) – My original rankings had them leaping over San Diego State. The Tigers are 4-1 in Quadrant 2.

Grand Canyon (16-1) – It’s that time of the year when you compare a win-heavy mid-major school to bigger schools that eat each other. Tough to balance.

Texas Tech (14-2) – Dinged for a horrid schedule. TCU had a bad non-conference slate as well, but can’t ignore what they are doing in the conference. The Red Raiders have some work to do.

 

 

Top 25

1. Purdue (14-1) (1) – Illinois has emerged as a top team in the Big Ten. Purdue beat them by five last week. They don’t play a currently ranked team for a while, but an in-state in-conference rivalry game at Indiana awaits on 1/16.

2. Kansas (13-1) (2) – As I keep saying, the computers are not in love. The KenPom ranks them as the 18th luckiest team in the country, and certainly held up against TCU on Saturday. They take on Oklahoma this coming weekend.

3. Houston (14-0) (3) – I was tempted to jump them over Kansas, but that is just semantics. For all the talk about their stellar defense, their offense ranks tenth in offensive efficiency. A tricky road trip against Iowa State and TCU is coming next.

4. Tennessee (11-3) (4) – The Volunteers extended their winning streak to seven by mauling the previously unbeaten Ole Miss squad by 26.

5. UConn (13-2) (5) – Road wins are precious inside conference play, and the Huskies needed all the offense they could muster to take care of Butler. Defense is where they can use some improvement. Offensively, they are as good as anyone.

6. Kentucky (11-2) (9) – It was a hard fought battle, but the Wildcats prevailed on the road against Florida. Underachieving Texas A&M is a part of their upcoming schedule.

7. North Carolina (11-3) (11) – The Tar Heels have played seven games in Quad 1 this season, tied for most in the NCAA. Only Purdue (6) and Arizona (5) have won more games in that quadrant.

8. Duke (11-3) (12) – The Blue Devils had to play the full 40 minutes to defeat Notre Dame. This week, they try to avenge their early-season loss to Georgia Tech.

9. Arizona (12-3) (13) – The Wildcats average 92.6 points per game, including recent slaughters of Colorado (97-50) and Utah (92-73).  A dangerous, dangerous squad.

10. Illinois (11-3) (8) – They destroyed Northwestern before hanging tough in a 6-point road loss to Purdue. Inconsistent Michigan State and down Maryland await next.

11. Marquette (11-4) (6) – The Golden Eagles remain one of my favorites to cut down the nets. Every loss is in Quadrant 1, where they also own three victories.

12. BYU (12-2) (7) – The Cougars’ first Big 12 test did not go well, as they lost a home game to Cincinnati (another new member of the conference). It doesn’t get much easier, as a trip to Baylor awaits.

13. Baylor (12-2) (15) – The Bears have followed up their losses to Michigan State and Duke with three straight wins against not-as-good competition. Their game against BYU may show us something about both schools.

14. Memphis (13-2) (17) – On one hand, the Tigers have eight straight wins and have yet to lose a game outside of Quadrant 1. On the other, their last few wins haven’t been impressive (78-75 over Tulsa and 62-59 over SMU).

15. Oklahoma (13-1) (18) – A nice win over computer darling Iowa State last week. This week? Two road games (TCU, Kansas) that will tell us more about the Sooners, who didn’t play a tough non-conference slate.

16. San Diego State (13-2) (19) – I don’t know what more they need to do to get the AP writers to put them in the Top 25. Two Quad 1 wins, zero bad losses, 14th-best non-conference schedule, etc.

17. Colorado State (13-2) (10) – This was the week of challenges for the Rams, and they ended up splitting the two games (win over New Mexico/loss to Utah State).

18. Wisconsin (11-3) (24) – The Badgers are the lone unbeaten squad (3-0) in the Big Ten. A tricky road game against Ohio State comes next.

19. Utah State (14-1) (NR) – Their win over Colorado State improved their Quad 1 record to 2-0. As expected, the Mountain West has started strong.

20. Creighton (11-4) (25) – The Blue Jays needed that win over Providence. They need to start stacking wins after a tough stretch that saw them go 1-3 with a loss to UNLV mixed in.

21. Florida Atlantic (11-4) (14) – Life as the hunted instead of the hunter can be a rough one. Their win over Arizona will forever be their biggest conquest. They cannot lose many games to teams like Charlotte (7-7) and expect to maintain a Sweet 16 seed in the Big Dance.

22. Cincinnati (12-2) (NR) – The Bearcats started their stretch of five ranked games in six games played with a win over BYU. Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas are a part of this crazy stretch.

23. Clemson (11-3) (16) – An 0-2 week (losses to Miami and North Carolina) drops the Tigers, who are entering the easier part of their conference slate. It is time to pile up the wins.

24. South Carolina (13-1) (NR) – The Gamecocks essentially take the place of Ole Miss as ranked teams who still have something to prove. Their game at Alabama this week can make things clearer.

25. Auburn (12-2) (NR) – Arkansas isn’t playing up to expectations, but Auburn beating them by 32 in a home game is eye-popping for both squads.

Dropped Out:

Colorado (11-4) (20) – Their trip through Arizona (Arizona State, Arizona) did not go well.

James Madison (14-1) (21) – They had trouble at Louisiana before losing to Southern Miss. Their margins aren’t wide, so they have to avoid losing too many in-conference games if they want any at-large consideration.

Ole Miss (13-1) (22) – I didn’t expect them to beat Tennessee on the road. I did need them to keep it close for me to keep ranking them.

Texas (11-3) (23) – When your non-conference schedule is ranked 319th, you better play well once tougher competition enters the arena.

Just Missed:

Nevada (14-1) – Seven straight wins as they attempt to join their Mountain West counterparts in the Top 25.

Princeton (13-1) – The Tigers just keep on winning…

Seton Hall (10-5) – They are putting together a nice array of Big East victories.