Category: College Basketball

History: In a world of constant flux, the Big Sky Conference has remained mostly intact. Southern Utah left the league in 2022, but that is a rarity (and they were only in the conference for ten years).  Montana and Weber State have traditionally dominated this league, with Montana winning 11 titles while Weber State has ten. However, Montana hasn’t won since 2019 while Weber State’s drought goes back to 2016.

In the NCAA Tournament, this league has had mild success. Their last win came in 2006 when Montana defeated Nevada in a 12-vs-5 contest. Weber State won two 14-vs-3 games, both against traditional powerhouses. In 1995, they defeated Michigan State 79-72. In 1999, they knocked off North Carolina by a 76-74 margin before losing to Florida in overtime.

Returning Champion: Montana State repeated its 2022 run with another win in 2023. Last year, as the #2 seed, they beat upstart #9 seed Northern Arizona. As the #1 seed in 2022, they destroyed Northern Colorado by 21. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, they played a respectable game against #3 seed Kansas State, losing by 12.

Format:  All ten schools make the tournament, with seeds 7-10 playing in the first round.

Favorite:  Eastern Washington (21-10, 15-3)

The Eagles enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak. They challenged themselves in the non-conference, going 0-7 in Quad 1/2 games. Their closest loss was a 7-point loss to Washington, but they also played tough games against Mississippi, Cincinnati, and Washington State. 

Five players, all of whom are juniors or seniors, averaged 10+ points per game. Their top four scorers are all listed as forwards, two of which stand 6’10”. Despite their size, both Ethan Price and Dane Erikstrup love to shoot the three and the team as a whole is at 36.9% (37th in the nation). They rank 71st in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 81.2 points.

Contenders: Northern Colorado (19-12, 12-6), Montana (21-10, 12-6), Weber State (20-11, 11-7)

Live Long Shot: Northern Arizona (14-18, 7-11)

Preview:

I love the Big Sky Conference Tournament. It’s played late at night (the title game is at 9:30 PM MT) and can be a rather fun tournament.

Northern Colorado lost a pair of close games to Eastern Washington this season. The Bears earned the #2 seed in the field, keeping them away from Eastern Washington until a potential title game. Like Eastern Washington, they like to score, averaging 80.4 points. They have a star junior forward: 6’7″ Saint Thomas averages a double-double (20 points/10 rebounds) and can distribute as well (4.0 assists). As a team, their 49.1% mark from the field is 16th in the country. They are one of the worst defensive squads in the nation, so their offense must show up.

Montana is always in the mix, aren’t they? The Grizzlies haven’t had a losing season since their 2007-2008 campaign, and this is their 9th 20+ win season since. They finished the year on a 5-1 run and played Nevada within 11 in the non-conference. You don’t want to fall behind this squad late, as their 80% free-throw percentage ranks 4th in the country. It’s a well-balanced team with senior leadership (five of their top six scorers are seniors).

Weber State is 8-2 in their last ten games. The Wildcats have a Quad 1 win on their resume (at St Mary’s) and are 2-0 in Quad 2 games (Yale on a neutral court and Eastern Washington on the road). Like Northern Colorado, the Wildcats have a player who averages a double-double: Junior forward Dillon Jones averages 20.8 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. He can put the team on his back and win the three games they need to take the title.

Northern Arizona has a win over Eastern Washington and earned a Quad 2 win by beating Seattle on the road. That said, there is no hiding that they aren’t especially good offensively or defensively, and winning the 7-8 game over Idaho State won’t be simple.

Bottom Line:

This conference is a bit top-heavy, as Montana and Weber State try to reestablish themselves as the kings of the Big Sky. Eastern Washington had a great year, but I think Dillon Jones will be the difference-maker. There’s a chance he can match up with Northern Colorado‘s Saint Thomas in the championship.

Winner: Weber State

History: Formerly known as the Colonial Athletic Association, the Coastal Athletic Association has some history of NCAA Tournament success, though their last conquest was in 2012 when former member VCU upset Wichita State in a 12-vs-5 matchup. One year earlier, as an at-large team, VCU made it to the Final Four, where they lost to Butler by eight. On their way to the Final Four, Butler defeated Old Dominion by only two in the first round (an 8-9 matchup).

Of the teams still in the league, UNC-Wilmington has the most titles (6), though they haven’t won it since 2017.

Returning Champion: Charleston. At 31-4, they weren’t even the top seed (Hofstra had the same conference record at 16-2). Hofstra was upset in the semi-finals by UNC Wilmington.

In the NCAA Tournament, Charleston gave eventual national runner-up San Diego State a fight in the first round, before losing 63-57.

Format: All 14 schools make the field. In the first round (already completed), the #11 seed faces the #14 seed while the #12 seed takes on the #13 seed. Teams seeded 1-4 automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Charleston (24-7, 15-3)

While last year’s squad would have firmly been on the bubble if they didn’t win the conference tournament, this year’s squad doesn’t have that luxury. The Cougars enter the tournament on an impressive 9-game winning streak that includes wins over many of the other top schools. This team wants to play at a fast pace and score. They average 81 points (30th in the nation) on the strength of pure volume. They hoist up 65.1 field goal attempts (7th) and 31.1 three-point attempts (3rd). They rely a lot on upperclassman balance, as no one player averages more than 12.7 points.

Contenders: Drexel (20-11, 13-5), Hofstra (19-12, 12-6), UNC Wilmington (21-9, 12-6), Towson (18-13, 11-7), Delaware (18-13, 10-8)

Live Long Shot: Northeastern (12-19, 7-11)

Preview:

Not only is this league balanced, it is dangerous. Three teams pulled off a Quadrant 1 win this year and four teams have a NET in the 103-122 range. That isn’t bad for a one-bid mid-major league.

Drexel defeated Villanova on a neutral court in the non-conference and lost by 11 at Princeton. Unlike Charleston, the Dragons want to play at a methodical pace and limit possessions. While they score only 72.8 points, they allow only 65.8 (28th best). Senior forward Amari Williams is a handful. The 6’10”, 227-pounder averages 12.3 points and 7.8 rebounds. They are 5-1 in their last six games but lost their only game against Charleston.

Hofstra has a pair of Quad 2 wins, including a home conquest of AAC beast South Florida. The Pride played St. John’s within five on the road as well. They enter the tournament 8-2 in their last ten games, though they lost their season finale to Charleston by 11 (road). They connect on an impressive 37.4% of their three-point attempts and have a bonafide senior guard star duo (Tyler Thomas averages 22.3 points, while Darlinstone Dubar averages 18.1).

UNC Wilmington pulled off one of the most impressive mid-major wins this season, as they went on the road to knock off Kentucky. After an impressive 10-1 stretch in conference play, they finished 2-3 to cost themselves a shot at the conference title. Like Charleston, they like to score (80.2; 52nd in adjusted offensive efficiency). They grabbed the #4 seed, giving them the coveted auto-bye to the quarterfinals.

Towson didn’t shy away from competition and played respectably against Houston, losing by 16. The #5 seed defeated Charleston and Delaware on the road this year (though they lost their home games to both). There exists a variety of styles in this league, and Towson is the anti-tempo squad. They score a minuscule 68 points, though they allow only 64.2 (15th). They haven’t made it to the NCAA Tournament since 1991.

Delaware‘s Quadrant 1 win came at Xavier. The Blue Hens are struggling heading into the tournament, going 2-4 in their last six games. This squad is middle-of-the-pack in the NCAA in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and tempo. Junior forward Jyare Davis is a handful for every team. He scored 19 points against Xavier and had a stretch of four straight double-double performances. They will take on Hampton in the second round, with a game against Hofstra awaiting in the quarterfinals. They only met up once, a 5-point home win for Hofstra.

Northeastern lost to Seton Hall by 13 and Virginia by two in road contests. In this field, it is hard to endorse anyone above the top teams – but at least Northeastern has shown the ability to play good teams and not embarrass themselves. They will take on Stony Brook (a 7th seed with a 17-14 record).

Bottom Line:

This one is hard. Charleston is hot, but one can make an argument for 7-8 teams in this tournament. I haven’t even mentioned Monmouth, a team that went 17-14 and 10-8 in the league. They are the 8th seed.

Winner: Hofstra

History: While South Dakota State (6 titles) and North Dakota State (4) have dominated this tournament since 2012, Oral Roberts has taken home the crown two of the past three years.

In 2021, Oral Roberts rode the wave of winning this tournament to make it to the Sweet 16 as a #15 seed (where they lost to Alabama by two).

Returning Champion: Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles went 15-0 in conference play and 30-5 overall. As a #12 seed, they were a popular pick to beat Duke but didn’t show up in a 74-51 loss.

Format: All nine teams make the field (the #8 and #9 seeds play in the opening round). St. Thomas is eligible to win the tournament but not for the NCAA Tournament (transition period).

Favorite:  South Dakota State (19-12, 12-4)

The Jackrabbits are back at the top. They have been one of the most consistent mid-major winners going back a decade, though they have yet to get over the hump in the NCAA Tournament (0-6).

Their balanced attack (four players average between 11.5 and 19.3 points) is led by junior guard Zeke Mayo, who averages 19.3 points/5.9 rebounds/3.6 assists. In the non-conference, they played tough against UCF (83-80 loss) and George Mason (73-71). They enter the tournament on a five-game winning streak.

Contenders: Kansas City (16-15, 10-6), North Dakota (18-13, 10-6), St. Thomas (19-12, 9-7)

Live Long Shot: Denver (15-16, 6-10)

Preview:

As you can tell, this league is highly competitive. While South Dakota State ran away with the league title late, the teams are bunched up with several squads having a legitimate chance to cut down the nets.

Kansas City has never made it to the NCAA Tournament. The Roos enter this tournament on a 6-game winning streak that includes a win over South Dakota State. They didn’t do much winning in the non-conference, but they did challenge themselves with games against Baylor, Kansas, and Colorado State. Losing senior guard Anderson Kopp (13.1 PPG) was a major blow in December, but they seem to have adjusted to his loss.

North Dakota has one NCAA Tournament appearance (2017). The Fighting Hawks played Nebraska within eight on the road. They are boosted by the return of Tyree Ihenacho, who averages 14.8 points. They aren’t a high-tempo or efficient squad, but they score (75.4) and crash the offensive boards (11.6; 80th in the country). They take on Omaha in the 3-vs-6 contest.

St. Thomas can create some havoc if they win the tournament. The Tommies rise in the conference has been remarkable, given it is only their third year in Division I. Two years ago, they finished 10-20. They are 38-26 since and are a decent 143rd in the KenPom rankings this year (155th in the NET). They split with their first-round opponent (North Dakota State, who finished 15-16). They played a tough game at Marquette earlier this season, losing by an 84-79 margin. They are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, allowing them to hold opponents to 65.3 points.

Denver plays Kansas City in the first round. Like Kansas City, the Pioneers have never played in the NCAA Tournament. They are an exciting team that scores 82.6 points (while allowing 81.9, 359th in the nation). As you may suspect, they play at a high pace (and having home games in Denver likely makes it tough on their opponents).  Tommy Bruner is a college basketball star, who leads the nation in scoring (24.5) while dishing out 4.4 assists. They showed off their scoring chops in the non-conference, where they lost to Colorado State 90-80 and BYU 90-74. Despite their accolades, they enter this tournament on a 3-game losing streak, where they are averaging only 65.7 points.

Bottom Line:

This is a wide-open field, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any team winning it. That said, the team that wins this tournament is typically a team close to the top of the league.

Winner: Why not go with some chaos and pick St. Thomas to cut down the nets?

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Wednesday, March 6th.

The bubble comes down to four things, if you want to simplify your life:

1. Win some Quad 1 games;
2. Don’t lose Quad 3/4 games;
3. Beat a few good opponents on the road/neutral court;
4. Play a respectable non-conference schedule.

If you are on the bubble, you don’t want the committee to look at your schedule and ding you. If you play in a major conference, there is zero excuse to play a poor non-conference schedule. The committee isn’t impressed by TCU going 11-2 in the non-conference when the only two good teams they played (Clemson, and Nevada) beat them. The committee will be happy to see that they have zero bad losses, but the Horned Frogs are giving the committee a reason to, at the very least, deflate their seeding.

You don’t need to dominate in Quad 1. Not every team is Houston, UConn, Purdue, etc. The committee is fine with something like 5-9 in Quad 1. You just have to win some games to impress. This is where a school like Wake Forest (2-6) loses ground.

Teams don’t need to be perfect in Quad 3/4, but they can’t afford many losses. This is where UNLV is having trouble boosting its resume. The Rebels are an impressive 5-3 in Quad 1, but are 7-3 in Quad 4. Losing three games in the worst quadrant is hard to overcome.

Finally, the NCAA Tournament isn’t played on a home court so the committee wants you to prove that you can win outside your friendly confines. South Carolina being the only team to defeat Tennessee on the Volunteers’ home court is going to be weighed significantly in their favor. It makes sense.

ACC

In:
Duke [24-6 (15-4), Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 9]
North Carolina [24-6 (16-3), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Clemson [21-9 (11-8); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 24]

Bubble:
Wake Forest [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 42]
Pittsburgh [20-10 (11-8); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 44]
Virginia [21-9 (12-7); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 50]
Virginia Tech [17-13 (9-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 54]

The nightmare is real: The ACC can be looking at only three bids this season. The fact that Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, and Virginia are 6-18 combined in Quadrant 1 is not instilling confidence.

Virginia can point to zero bad losses to enhance their resume. Furthermore, they have a neutral-court win over Florida and home win over struggling Texas A&M. Their win over Clemson stands out as a true road win.

I included Virginia Tech in this update because they have that extra Quad 1 win + they played a tough non-conference schedule, with wins over Iowa State and Boise State (plus a two-point neutral court loss to South Carolina).  However, they are 2-9 on the road, beating only Louisville and North Carolina State. The latter is at least a decent road win.

Pittsburgh has seven road wins, including a huge one over Duke. The Panthers are 8-2 in their last ten games, so at least they are trying to stay relevant.

Bottom line? The four bubble teams need runs in the ACC Tournament. One of them likely will make that run and give the ACC a legitimate chance at a 4th bid. Your guess is as good as mine as to which team that will be.

American Athletic

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [23-7 (13-4); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 34]
SMU [19-10 (11-6); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 55]
Memphis [22-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 70]
South Florida [23-5 (16-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 74]

South Florida has won 15 straight games but is no closer to an at-large bid than they were a week ago. At one point, their NET was three digits, so a lot of credit to them to put themselves in this position. However, they are going to likely need to win the conference tournament to get their bid. They can point to Quad 4 losses to Central Michigan and Maine as the source of their misery.

The only team with a legitimate claim to an at-large remains Florida Atlantic. The Owls have that super win over Arizona + their neutral court win over Texas A&M has been upgraded to Quad 1.  Five of their Quad 2 wins are in “Quad 2A,” including wins over Virginia Tech and Butler. The only reason why they aren’t locked in is two incredibly weird losses to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast.

For the most part, you can forget about SMU (zero Quad 1 wins) and Memphis (their late surge is likely not enough, though they can complete a sweep of Florida Atlantic on Saturday).

This is one league that bubble teams should watch in the next two weeks. If I am correct that Florida Atlantic is close to being locked in, there is a solid chance at some other team will win the tournament and steal a second bid.

Atlantic 10

Bubble:
Dayton [23-6 (13-4), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]

Just like the American, the Atlantic 10 has bid-stealing possibilities. Dayton being just outside the Top 20 NET makes them as close to a lock as a mid-major can be. VCU is a tough upcoming matchup, so they won’t want to lose that game.

Richmond is 23-7 (15-2) and has won six in a row while Loyola Chicago is 21-8 (14-3) and winners of nine of their last ten. With teams like these and VCU, UMass, Saint Bonaventure, Duquesne, George Mason, and St. Joseph‘s, the odds that a team will steal a second bid from this league are high. The good news for bubble teams is that none of these squads are strong enough to give this league three bids.

Big 12

In:
Houston [27-3 (14-3), Quad 1: 12-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [24-6 (13-4); Quad 1: 7-5; NET: 8]
BYU [21-9 (9-8), Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 12]
Baylor [21-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 8-6; NET: 13]
Kansas [22-8 (10-7); Quad 1: 7-6; NET: 15]
Texas [19-11 (8-9); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 28]

Bubble
Texas Tech [21-9 (10-7); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 37]
TCU [20-10 (9-8); Quad 1: 2-10; NET: 38]
Oklahoma [20-10 (8-9); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 41]
Cincinnati [17-13 (6-11); Quad 1: 3-10; NET: 45]

Texas is the 6th Big 12 squad to lock themselves into the tournament. My only trepidation is their non-conference slate which includes losses to UConn and Marquette. However, they have (mostly) won the games they were supposed to win while winning just enough tough games to separate themselves from other teams. It’s not a perfect resume – it’s a “good enough” resume.

Texas Tech has zero bad losses but defeated nobody of consequence in the non-conference. If the Red Raiders can beat Baylor on Saturday, that might be enough to promote them into a lock position.

TCU’s problem is their schedule. I have stated it all season – if you play nobody, you deserve to get dinged. Their supporters will point to their zero losses outside of Quadrant 1. When I look at teams I project to make the NCAA Tournament, TCU has defeated none of them since their January 30th win over Texas. I expect them to get a bid, but I don’t think it’s going to come without a sweat (or a long run in the Big 12 Tournament).

Oklahoma has similar issues, but the Sooners can at least point to decent non-conference wins over Iowa, Providence, and Arkansas. The Sooners haven’t won a game over a projected NCAA Tournament team since defeating BYU on February 6th. They pretty much only lose to good teams, but I would love to see more wins against good teams.

Cincinnati’s NET keeps them around, but just barely. In a tough league like this one, a good team will get lost in the shuffle. This season, that team is probably Cincinnati, a team that is only 6-11 since the calendar turned to 2024 (yes, their entire in-conference schedule).

Big East

In:
UConn [27-3 (17-2); Quad 1: 11-3; NET: 3]
Creighton [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 7-6; NET: 11]
Marquette [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 8-7; NET: 14]

Bubble:
Villanova [17-13 (10-9); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 29]
St. John’s [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 5-9; NET: 36]
Providence [19-11 (10-9); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 61]
Seton Hall [19-11 (12-7); Quad 1: 6-7; NET: 63]
Butler [18-13 (9-11); Quad 1: 4-11; NET: 65]

This league is looking at the possibility of six bids. Maybe even seven if everything works out in their favor. Five is the floor.

I will start with this: Throw out Seton Hall‘s NET. If the committee is going to punish the Pirates, a team that will have 20 wins (13 in-conference), because they lost a home game to Rutgers back in December, they need to look hard in the mirror. Yes, I wish they won a big non-conference game. But they have done more than enough inside the conference, including wins over UConn, Marquette, Villanova, St. John’s (2), Butler (2), and Providence. Yes, they have wins over everyone listed above other than Creighton, and one of those losses was a 3-OT thriller.

Villanova lost to Penn, Saint Joseph’s, and Drexel. They counteracted that with wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. It’s a strange resume that could end up with 15 losses if they lose to Creighton on Saturday and at some point in the Big East Tournament. In other words, they should make life easy on themselves and just beat Creighton.

St. John‘s earned two much-needed Quad 1 wins when their conquests of Utah and Villanova were elevated. Both wins can still slip back into Quad 2, so they are hoping both teams finish strong. Their path to the tournament looks like this: Don’t dare lose to Georgetown. Then, beat a good team in the Big East Tournament. Depending on how the bracket shakes out, that team might be one of the big three.

Providence has some of the same challenges as St. John‘s without a solid NET to fall back on. Unlike St. John’s, they can still improve their resume in the regular season as they play UConn on Saturday.

In case you do wonder why St. John’s and Providence have wildly different NET rankings despite some similar W-L metrics, some of it can be the offensive/defensive efficiency that is baked into the program. St. John’s is a Top 40 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency (KenPom), while Providence’s offensive efficiency is 125th. Plus, St. John’s played a better non-conference schedule, though Providence has the more impressive win (its best win is over Wisconsin, while St. John’s best win was over Utah). Anyway, when everything is added together, you end up the Red Storm having a better profile. However, as you have seen, the two teams continue to teeter on the bubble line. It’s very close. The committee doesn’t just rank by NET and choose teams.

Butler’s regular season is over, as they earned a win over Xavier in the season finale. The Bulldogs have zero bad losses but will likely require a significant Big East Tournament run to earn consideration.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [27-3 (16-3); Quad 1: 11-3; NET: 2]
Illinois [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 16]
Michigan State [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 22]
Wisconsin [18-11 (10-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 23]

Bubble:
Nebraska [21-9 (11-8); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 43]
Northwestern [20-10 (11-8); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 53]
Iowa [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 57]
Ohio State [18-12 (8-11); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 59]

Wisconsin is 2-7 in their last nine games, but their NET hasn’t fallen off the map. This is the advantage of playing a strong non-conference schedule + zero bad losses + a couple of strong in-conference road wins. That said, as impressive as five Quad 1 wins are, does anyone have any confidence in this school once the NCAA Tournament begins?

As for the bubble, it is a mess. Northwestern had a shot at a bid-clinching win over Michigan State but came up short. Still, they have five Quadrant 1 wins, including a non-conference win over Dayton. Their resume is dinged significantly by a non-conference slate that was pretty much Dayton and nobody else. “Nobody else” includes Division I independent Chicago State, who defeated Northwestern by a pair earlier this season. That was a devastating Quad 4 loss.

Nebraska went on the road in the non-conference to pull off a decent win over Kansas State. That win is important because it is one of only two road victories for the Cornhuskers (Indiana is the other). There’s work to do here, including securing a third road win over Michigan in the season finale.

Iowa’s non-conference slate was middle-of-the-road and included a neutral-court win over Seton Hall. Their best argument is four road wins, including conquests of Michigan State and Northwestern. It would serve them well to beat Illinois on Sunday + make a run in the Big Ten Tournament.

Ohio State is a late edition who has recent wins over Purdue, Michigan State (road), and Nebraska. Is their win over Alabama enough to overcome other flaws? Not likely. The Buckeyes have a tricky road game against Rutgers to close out their campaign.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [26-5 (17-3); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 30]
Drake [25-6 (16-4); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 48]

By all appearances, both schools belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even though Drake didn’t play a power conference school in the non-conference, their schedule was still solid and included a neutral court win over Nevada. They split with Indiana State and swept third-place Bradley. They wish they could erase that bad 24-point neutral court loss to Stephen F. Austin. 

Indiana State‘s Quadrant 4 loss to Illinois State stings but doesn’t need to be season-ending. They didn’t play nearly the same schedule as Drake, though they did play against power conference schools (102-80 loss to Alabama and 87-75 loss to Michigan State). Just like Drake, Indiana State swept third-place Bradley. 

For this league to receive two bids, Indiana State and Drake must face each other in the title game.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [22-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 19]

Bubble:
Boise State [21-9 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 25]
New Mexico [22-8 (10-7); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 26]
Utah State [25-5 (13-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 32]
Nevada [25-6 (12-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 33]
Colorado State [21-9 (9-8); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 35]
UNLV [19-10 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 76]

This is the craziest league in the country, bar none. San Diego State is locked in. While its hard to lock in anyone else, the odds are better that six of these teams are in than it is that any one of them will be left out (other than UNLV).

Just breaking it down, you have Nevada with six Quad 1 wins (and 11 Quad 1 games) and only one bad loss (on the road to Wyoming). They have earned six straight wins heading into their season finale against UNLV, a game that could help determine who wins the conference title.

Speaking of the conference title, Utah State is firmly in the driver’s seat. If they beat New Mexico this weekend, they will win the outright championship. The Aggies played a good non-conference schedule, though they beat quality mid-major schools over playing bigger-name squads. The Cayman Islands Classic was a battle of mid-majors and it was Utah State that emerged as the winners. They haven’t suffered a bad loss this season.

I always say that the Mountain West teams know how to play the game, and Boise State is no different. The Broncos defeated St. Mary’s and VCU in the non-conference while losing to Washington State by five. Their 8-8 Quad 1/2 record is impressive, and they only have one bad loss (a home loss to UNLV, which is turning out to be not-so-bad).

Of every team in this league, none has a better non-conference win than Colorado State‘s destruction of Creighton. Their strong non-conference slate also includes wins over Colorado and Washington (neutral) + a 3-point loss to St. Mary’s. The Rams finished cold (2-4), though one of the wins was a 20-point victory over Utah State.

UNLV has five straight wins, including conquests of San Diego State and Colorado State. They have a shot at a 6th Quad 1 win when they travel to play Nevada in the season closer. Like Colorado State, they beat Creighton and played a close game against St. Mary’s (2-OT loss). They are done in by three Quad 4 losses + the fact that their early-season game at Dayton was canceled. What happens if they at least get to the finals of the Mountain West Tournament? We’ll see.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [23-6 (14-4); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 4]
Washington State [23-7 (14-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 40]

Bubble:
Colorado [20-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 31]
Utah [18-11 (9-9); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 46]
Oregon [19-10 (11-7); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 66]

At the top, the big question is whether Arizona has done enough to earn a #1 seed out West. If not, they will be the #2 team out West. That may seem like no big deal, but remember that the Wildcats lost a 2-15 game to Princeton last year.

Colorado has only that one Quad 1 win but does boast seven Quad 2 wins and zero bad losses. The Buffaloes will need to sweep their way through Oregon on Thursday/Saturday + win a Quad 1 game during the Pac-12 Tournament to feel somewhat safe.

Utah‘s resume has gained some traction. The Utes are haunted by a 3-OT home loss to Arizona and a couple of close calls in the non-conference (76-66 loss to Houston + 91-82 loss to St. John’s). To help counteract that, they own wins over BYU and St. Mary’s (road). Like with Colorado, it would be beneficial to sweep through Oregon on Thursday and Sunday.

Speaking of Oregon, they should be happy to welcome two bubble teams into their gym to close out their season. For now, the Ducks’ resume falls short, so a sweep of Colorado and Utah + two wins (I guess) in the Pac-12 Tournament would enhance their profile considerably. Failing that, the NIT is looking good.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [24-6 (14-3), Quad 1: 8-5; NET: 5]
Auburn [23-7 (12-5); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 6]
Alabama [20-10 (12-5); Quad 1: 4-9; NET: 7]
Kentucky [22-8 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 20]
Florida [21-9 (11-6); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 27]

Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-11 (8-9); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 39]
South Carolina [24-6 (12-5); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 47]
Texas A&M [17-13 (8-9); Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 49]
Ole Miss [20-10 (7-10); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 78]

How does a good team play a full season in the SEC and only compile one Quad 1 win? That said, Auburn is 8-0 in Quadrant 2 and 14-0 in Quad 3/4. This is an excellent team that just hasn’t been able to earn many top-top wins (except for their win over Alabama). Even their home win over South Carolina is Quad 2.

I have officially locked Florida in. Nobody is leaving them out at this point.

Mississippi State played a top 100 non-conference schedule that included wins over Washington State and Northwestern to take home the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. It also includes losses to Georgia Tech (road) and Southern. The Bulldogs ran into a gauntlet at the end of the season and haven’t responded well (0-3 against Kentucky, Auburn, and Texas A&M with a game against South Carolina to close out the season). I would place them in the “safe” category – just not locked in.

South Carolina played a terrible non-conference schedule, which is why their NET has been middling most of the year despite their 24-6 record. The Gamecocks have seven road wins this year, including one of the most impressive in all of college basketball (Tennessee). I would be shocked if they are left out.

Texas A&M has the weirdest resume in the group. You can’t ignore splitting 12 Quad 1 games, but you also can’t ignore four Quadrant 3 losses. In the non-conference, they beat Ohio State and Iowa State (neutral) while losing to Houston by four on a neutral court. If they beat Ole Miss in the finale and lose their first tournament game, would 18-14 be enough? It’s not a record that instills confidence, but it is one with a lot of quality included.

Ole Miss is 15-0 in Quad 3/4. Their lack of bad losses is impressive, but their overall resume is just not solid enough. Their only two wins since February 1st are against Missouri, and both games were close.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [28-3 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 52]

James Madison finished their regular season on a 10-game winning streak and will enter the Sun Belt Tournament as the #2 seed behind Appalachian State, the team that has given the Dukes nightmares all season (two of their three losses). I don’t think they are earning an at-large, but if they want a chance they need to get to the title game.

West Coast

In:

Gonzaga [24-6 (14-2); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 17]
St. Mary’s [24-7 (15-1); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 18]

Bubble:

None.

Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are safely in the tournament and nobody else has a shot.

History: The Northeast Conference was never known for its NCAA Tournament accolades until last season when FDU defeated Purdue in a 16-vs-1 contest. More on that in a second. Robert Morris, no longer in the league, is the all-time Northeast Conference Tournament winner with nine titles. In the last six years, the league has produced six different champions.

Returning Champion: Merrimack. Say what? In case you didn’t remember, FDU did not win the tournament last year. That distinction went to Merrimack, a school that was still ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.  FDU went to the NCAA Tournament as the league runner-up.

Format: Eight of the nine teams make the field. This year, Stonehill (who isn’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament) came in 9th place and is left out. This doesn’t mean that shenanigans are impossible yet again, as 4th-seeded Le Moyne is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

Favorite:  Merrimack (19-11, 13-3)

Merrimack is no longer in their transition period and is eligible for the NCAA Tournament in 2024. The Warriors have no shame in announcing themselves as a defensive squad, ranking 78th in the country in defensive efficiency. They allow only 66.3 points per game and did a decent job holding Ohio State and Florida in the 70s this season. They were riding high on a 10-game winning streak until losing to Sacred Heart on the final day of the season.

Contenders: Central Connecticut (19-10, 13-3), Sacred Heart (16-15, 10-6), FDU (15-16, 9-7)

Live Long Shot: Wagner (13-15, 7-9)

Preview:

While I installed Merrimack as the favorite, it is a 1A/1B situation with Central Connecticut State. The Blue Devils are the #1 seed since they had a better record against #3 Sacred Heart in the regular season. They finished the season with four straight wins, including what turned out to be the most important game for seeding: A 1-point road victory over Sacred Heart. While they are good at suppressing scoring (66.7), they are not nearly as efficient defensively as Merrimack.

Sacred Heart finished the season on a mini 4-1 run. The Pioneers are 45th in the nation in 3-point percentage (36.6%), though they take few three-point attempts per game (20.5; 244th). They defeated Merrimack on the last day of the season, and that is a potential semi-final matchup.

FDU will need a miracle to replicate last year’s miracle. There isn’t anything in their profile that suggests they can win this tournament, but it is always fair to respect the returning champions. They have two wins this year over teams that finished above .500 (Sacred Heart, St. Peter’s).  The Knights will take on Le Moyne in the 4-vs-5 game.

Wagner will play Sacred Heart in the opening round, a team they played tough in two losses. The Seahawks are one of the worst offensive teams in college, averaging only 63.9 points. Their very slow, methodical pace doesn’t allow for much scoring on the other end of the floor either (63.0). They will go as far as Melvin Council Jr. will take them. He has ten straight double-digit scoring efforts and is the only player on the squad averaging double digits.

Bottom Line:

This is typically how the Northeast Conference goes. While many smaller conferences tend to have wacky tournaments, the Northeast Conference has played mostly to the chalk, as a team near the top of the league usually cuts down the nets. No team with a conference record below .500 has ever won this tournament, which dates back to 1982.

Winner: I won’t expect that to happen in 2024, either. While it would seemingly be “fair” for Merrimack to get to the NCAA Tournament one year after missing on a technicality alone, I think Central Connecticut State will be your winner when the dust settles.