Category: College Basketball

History: The history is strong but will never be the same and is likely dead after this season. Only two teams (Washington State and Oregon State) were left behind during a mass exodus. Both schools will be affiliate members of the WCC next season, adding extra competition for St. Mary’s and Gonzaga.

The Pac-12 ran four tournaments between 1987 and 1990 but didn’t return to a tournament format until 2002.  Arizona has the most titles (9) while four schools have never cut down the nets (Utah, Arizona State, Washington State, and California). No team has won the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments in the same season.

Returning Champion: Arizona

In a mostly chalk tournament, the #2 Wildcats took down #1 UCLA, 61-59, in the championship. Looking like a potential Final Four contender, they tumbled against Princeton in a 15-vs-2 game. I cringe when people mention that being the #1 or #2 seed out West doesn’t matter. The way #15 seeds have routinely won in recent years should tell us that it does matter.

Format:  All 12 teams make the field, with teams seeded 1-4 automatically placed into the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Arizona (24-7, 15-5)

In a battle for the top seed out west with Tennessee and (maybe) North Carolina, the Wildcats’ biggest failure was losing five games in a not-so-deep power conference. Outside the conference, they showed their worth by beating Duke (road), Michigan State (neutral), Alabama (neutral), and Wisconsin (home).

Their top-flight offense (#8 in efficiency and #3 in scoring (89.5)) is what drives them. They shoot 49.2% from the field (14th) and 37.4% from three (23rd). They distribute and rebound well, ranking first in assists and second in rebounding. 7’0″ center Oumar Ballo averages a double-double (13.1 points/10.0 rebounds) while senior guard Caleb Love averages 18.7 points. Their combination of experience and explosiveness makes me wonder why they aren’t better. Not that a potential #1 seed is “bad,” but a team with this talent level shouldn’t lose five Pac-12 games.

Contenders: Washington State (23-8, 14-6), Colorado (22-9, 13-7), Oregon (20-11, 12-8)

Live Long Shot:  USC (14-17, 8-12)

Preview:

Washington State had a chance to shock the college basketball world. The Cougars swept Arizona (shocking in its own right) and seemed poised to take the regular-season title. However, weird losses to California, Arizona State, and Washington (home) derailed their plan. This is still a success story, however. They are ranked 45th in the KenPom, with an offense that ranks 53rd and a 29th-ranked defense. Four players average double-digits, including freshman Myles Rice (15.3) and senior forward Isaac Jones (15.4). They won six Quadrant 1 games, including a neutral-court win over Boise State. It’s not a “National Champions” profile, but a sneaky run to the Elite Eight seems possible.

Colorado needed to get hot to keep their at-large chances alive, and they did just that. The Buffaloes finished 6-0, including wins against fellow bubblers Utah and Oregon (road). Junior guard KJ Simpson is a handful, averaging 19.6 points/5.5 rebounds/4.9 assists. He shoots at a 45.1% clip from three-point range. In his first two years, he shot 25.4% and 27.6%. If they want to feel safe in their at-large quest, they cannot afford to lose to the winner of the Utah-Arizona State game.

Oregon is on the list because they received a bye. It is hard to envision the #4 seed getting past Arizona in a potential semi-final matchup, especially since Oregon‘s play hasn’t been inspiring. After starting 5-0 in conference play, they have been unable to get into a consistent groove.

USC has talent to burn, including top freshman Isaiah Collier (16.6 points/4.2 assists), who missed a chunk of time from mid-January into February. Bronny James, the son of Lebron, didn’t come out firing in his freshman year, averaging 4.8 points/2.8 rebounds/2.3 assists as mainly a bench piece. The Trojans ended the season on a 5-2 run, including wins over Utah and Arizona. The losses were to Colorado (double overtime) and Washington State (by three on the road). Usually, I discount highly talented teams that didn’t win, but the Pac-12 isn’t exceptionally strong, opening up a potential path. If they get past Washington (no easy feat) in the 8-9 game, a return date with Arizona commences.

Bottom Line:

I badly want to pick USC. I should do it since nobody would remember the silliness a week from now. Can they piece everything together for four more games and steal an NCAA Tournament bid? Or will they flame out against a good Washington team that has its sights set on making a run?

Winner: I’m not that big of a risk taker, but I open up the possibility that Arizona could be upset early in this tournament.  Washington State is my pick.

History: The AAC is in constant churn. In the first year of the league (2013-2014), UConn gave the league instant credibility, using a second-place finish in the conference tournament to catapult them to winning the NCAA Tournament. UConn has since left for the Big East, while Louisville (who won the inaugural tournament – later vacated) is now in the ACC.

Raiding by bigger conferences has hit the AAC hard, as Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati bolted for the Big 12, while SMU is on its way to the ACC starting next season.

That said, what is leftover is still a good basketball league – albeit, not one that will ever be in the upper tier anymore.

Returning Champion: Memphis

The Tigers stood up to the 10,000-pound gorilla, beating heavily favored Houston in the title game. In their other two games, Houston allowed only 94 points. Memphis scored 75 in the championship.

That didn’t get them far, as they lost to Florida Atlantic in an 8-vs-9 heartbreaker in the first round. We all know what Florida Atlantic did from there.

Format:  All 14 squads make the field, with teams seeded 1-4 automatically advancing to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Florida Atlantic (24-7, 14-4)

The Owls made a strong impression in their first year. They earned quality wins when they swept through the ESPN Invitational (Butler, Texas A&M, and Virginia Tech). However, their biggest win was a monster, as they defeated Arizona in double overtime on a neutral court. A few weird losses (Bryant, Florida-Gulf Coast) suppressed their NET. Both losses are in Quadrant 4. I think they are safely in the NCAA Tournament. They just made it harder on themselves.

Four juniors lead the way, with 6’4″ guard Johnell Davis (18.2 points/6.3 rebounds/3.1 assists) and 7’1″ forward Vladislav Goldin (15.2 points/6.8 rebounds/1.6 blocks) playing a solid two-man game.  Their offense ranks 14th in efficiency and 15th in points (83.0). Defense can be their downfall at times.

Contenders: South Florida (23-6, 16-2), Charlotte (19-11, 13-5), UAB (20-11, 12-6), Memphis (22-9, 11-7), SMU (20-11, 11-7)

Live Long Shot:  North Texas (17-13, 10-8)

Preview:

While Florida Atlantic is the best team, South Florida was the surprise conference champion. While their overall resume doesn’t scream “at-large,” the Bulls used a 15-game winning streak (which included wins over every contender listed above) to take down the title. They are a solid defensive team that allows 68.6 points and 30.9% shooting from three-point range (31st lowest). While their one Quad 1 win and three Quad 3/4 losses will keep them out of the Big Dance at-large discussion, they are dangerous enough to earn their way there.

Charlotte and UAB are lumped together. I didn’t list them initially as contenders, but how can I leave out two teams who are a win away from being in the semifinals? That’s the advantage of earning the #3 and #4 seeds. Charlotte has a win over Florida Atlantic, the team they could face in that semifinal. That win was the start of an 8-game winning streak. However, they slumped to a 5-4 finish. The 49ers rank 356th in adjusted tempo, averaging only 69.2 points (they allow 65.9).  There are many ways to win – Charlotte chooses the “limit possessions” method. UAB has six Quadrant 2 wins, including an overtime conquest of Florida Atlantic. The Blazers are 77th in offensive efficiency, averaging 77.3 points. 6’9″ junior forward Yaxel Lendeborg averages a double-double (13.7 points/10.4 rebounds) while junior guard Eric Gaines dishes out 5.4 assists. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, but at least they know their limitations as they don’t attempt many of them.

Memphis looks like an NCAA Tournament team, but their profile says differently. Their non-conference wins over Michigan and Arkansas in the Battle 4 Atlantis lost their luster when those schools died on the vine. During a 4-game stretch in the non-conference, the Tigers defeated VCU (road), Texas A&M (road), Clemson, and Virginia. However, they own three Quad 3/4 losses and a middling NET (69). There are stars on this high-scoring (81.0) squad, starting with junior forward David Jones (21.7 points/7.6 rebounds). They like to wear down teams by playing a high-tempo style that can get them into trouble. Bottom line? They are reckless, which makes them scary.

SMU couldn’t get over the Quad 1 hump (0-4). Until a 1-4 finish that included a bad loss to UTSA, the Mustangs were still on the fringes of the bubble discussion. Now? They need to win this tournament. As the #6 seed, they will take on the Temple-UTSA winner for a shot at Charlotte. They defeated Charlotte by 12 in their only meeting. They are a top 50 team in defensive efficiency, allowing 67.6 points. Shooting isn’t their forte, but volume is. Thanks to being the 4th best offensive-rebounding team in the nation, they put up 63.5 attempts (19th).

North Texas is a copout pick for the long shot. The Mean Green played St. John’s within a point and Boise State within five during non-conference play. Their NET is decent, and their low-tempo, defensive style can give anyone fits. They play for the three (37.5%), and if they get hot, watch out. They are not a team you want to fall behind against.

Bottom Line:

Florida Atlantic is the best team. However, they are a team that feels vulnerable. The way this league gets multiple bids is with a Florida Atlantic loss. I am going to pick for that to happen.

Winner: Memphis

History: The league that produced UNLV‘s dominant squads from 1989-1991 is now a collection of California schools + Hawaii.

UNLV leads the way with seven conference titles. Amongst current schools, Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara have the most titles (5). Their last NCAA Tournament win was in 2019 when UC Irvine defeated Kansas State in a 13-vs-4 matchup. In 2016, Hawaii conquered a 13-vs-4 matchup when they knocked off California.

Returning Champion: UC Santa Barbara

The #2 seeded Gauchos defeated #4 Cal State Fullerton, 72-62, to take the championship. In the NCAA Tournament, as a #14 seed, they lost to Baylor by 18.

Format:  Eight of the 11 schools make it. Cal State Fullerton (14-18, 7-13) and Cal Poly (4-28, 0-20) missed the cut. UC San Diego is in their Division I transition period and is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. While many conferences allow ineligible NCAA Tournament teams to play in the conference tournament, that isn’t the case here. Despite their 15-5 conference mark (which would have been good enough for the #2 seed), UC San Diego won’t play. The tournament is played stepladder style, with the top two seeds automatically in the semifinals.

Favorite:  UC Irvine (24-8, 17-3)

The Anteaters are a respectable #73 in the NET and KenPom. They are ranked 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency and played a decent non-conference slate, where they secured a road win over USC. Additionally, they lost to San Diego State by one on the road and Utah State by ten. While efficiency isn’t their offensive strength, they use volume to score (77.7 points; 73rd in the country).

Contenders: UC Davis (19-12, 14-6), Hawaii (19-13, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  UC Santa Barbara (16-14, 9-11)

Preview:

With the Pac-12 going away, the Big West is the “conference of California.”

Most conferences allow ineligible NCAA Tournament teams to compete in their conference tournament. That is not the case in the Big West. Despite their 15-5 conference mark, UC San Diego is not eligible to play.

UC Davis is looking for their second NCAA Tournament bid. The Aggies won their final three games (Hawaii, UC San Diego (road), and Long Beach State (road)). Senior guard Elijah Pepper and junior guard Ty Johnson are mid-major monsters, averaging 20.5 and 17.6 points respectively.

Hawaii finished the season on a 7-3 run, earning themselves a first-round bye. The Rainbow Warriors lost to Nevada by six in non-conference play They are a strong premier defensive team, allowing only 4.6 made threes per contest (best in the country).

UC Santa Barbara will play Cal State Northridge in the first round, with the winner facing Hawaii. The Gauchos defeated the Rainbow Warriors twice this season. They average 75.1 points, with four players averaging double digits. At 49.4%, their field goal percentage is 8th in the country.

Bottom Line:

UC Irvine is a good team with solid metrics. However, I like UC Davis‘s star power. I will lean there in 2024.

Winner: UC Davis

History: Kentucky has 32 titles. The rest of the conference has 31. The Wildcats haven’t won since 2018.

No team has pulled off the SEC Tournament/NCAA Tournament double since 2007 when Florida accomplished the feat for the second straight year.

Returning Champion: Alabama

The Crimson Tide won their eighth championship. As the #1 seed, they won three games by a combined 63 points. In the final, they mauled #2 Texas A&M, 82-63. As the #1 seed in the South Region, they continued their dominance with back-to-back slaughters of Texas A&M – Corpus Christi and Maryland. However, in the Sweet 16, they ran into upstart San Diego State, who beat them by seven.

Format:  All 14 teams make the field (yes, including 0-18 Missouri). The top four teams are automatically placed in the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Tennessee (24-7, 14-4)

The Volunteers are in the running for the 4th #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Before losing to Kentucky in the season finale, they were on a 7-game winning streak that featured wins over Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina. 

Ranked #5 in the KenPom, Tennessee is third in adjusted defensive efficiency. On offense, they average 80.2 points, thanks to senior guard Dalton Knecht, who averages 21.4 points on 47.4% shooting (40.5% from three).

Contenders: Kentucky (23-8, 13-5), Alabama (21-10, 13-5), Auburn (24-7, 13-5), South Carolina (25-6, 13-5), Florida (21-10, 11-7)

Live Long Shot:  Arkansas (15-16, 6-12)

Preview:

Kentucky is flying. After losing a road game to LSU on 2/21, the Wildcats finished with five straight wins. Amongst those wins are conquests of Alabama, Mississippi State (road), and Tennessee (road). For most of the season, Kentucky was all about their offense. Their 89.5 average is second in the nation and their 3-point shooting percentage (41.2%) is the country’s top number. While their defense won’t be their calling card, they played better down the stretch. When you score like the Wildcats, you don’t need a top defense – you need a competent one. If they keep up their recent play, they have a competent one.

Alabama doesn’t know what defense is. The nation’s top-scoring team (90.8), their defense allows 80.4 (352nd). Despite how awful that is, their defensive efficiency is just outside the Top 100 (hardly great). The Crimson Tide is paced by senior guard Mark Sears (21.1 points (50.6% FG)/4.1 assists/4.0 rebounds). The key is to force teams to play at their frantic pace. They struggled to win against the top competition on their non-conference schedule, with a 102-80 win over Indiana State ranking as their best.

Auburn had a strange season. The Tigers, consistently a Top 10 NET squad, won only one Quad 1 game – a home conquest of Alabama. However, they went 9-0 in Quad 2. Like Kentucky and Alabama, the Tigers like to score (83.5; 13th in the country). In addition, they ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, allowing them to rank 4th in the KenPom. Essentially, Auburn is a Final Four threat that couldn’t get over the Quad 1 hump. We’ll see if they can turn that around.

South Carolina is one of the country’s most surprising teams. Their poor non-conference schedule hid how good they were early in the season. The Gamecocks were the first team to beat Tennessee on the road and they finished the season on a 4-1 run that included wins over Ole Miss (road), Texas A&M (road), Florida, and Mississippi State (road). In-conference road wins are gold, and they piled up an impressive array of them. They are likely on the second tier (the KenPom and NET aren’t fond of them), but they have proven the doubters wrong all year.

Florida finished their season with a 79-78 loss to Vanderbilt. It was their first Quad 3/4 loss, but it doesn’t damage their profile much. With a balanced offensive attack, the Gators average 84.9 points (7th) as they like to play at a high tempo. They rank first in the country in field goal attempts (65.6), shooting 45.7%. This is all made possible by being the country’s second-best offensive-rebounding squad (15.2).

Arkansas is supposed to be an NCAA Tournament team. An early-season win over Duke likely had them dreaming of Final Four possibilities. It wasn’t meant to be, as they struggled inside the conference. Maybe a “nothing to lose” attitude can catapult them to a run. If they beat Vanderbilt, their path includes upstart South Carolina and Quad 1-challenged Auburn. At the very least, you can see a path to a run.

Bottom Line:

According to the NET, the SEC has three top teams and a 4th (Kentucky) that is in the top 20. This tournament has the makings of a good one.

Winner: Kentucky

History: The SWAC is traditionally fodder in the NCAA Tournament, but their conference tournament is filled with history. Texas Southern has three straight championships and seven in the last nine years. Their streak of success has allowed them to overtake Southern for the most titles in history (11-9).

In 2013, Southern played Gonzaga within six in a 16-vs-1 contest. The last time a SWAC team won a main-bracket game (not a First Four game) was in 1993, when Southern defeated Georgia Tech in a 13-vs-4 matchup, setting up a rare 12-vs-13 second-round game. George Washington won that game.

Returning Champion: Texas Southern

Despite their dominance in recent conference tournaments, the 2023 squad was seeded 8th (last). They knocked off #1 Alcorn State, #5 Alabama A&M, and #2 Grambling State to punch their NCAA Tournament ticket. As a 20-loss team, they went to the First Four, where they lost to the FDU squad that went on to beat Purdue.

Format:  Eight of the 12 schools make the field. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Prairie View A&M, Florida A&M, and Mississippi Valley State missed the cut.

Favorite:  Grambling State (17-14, 14-4)

Many teams in this conference have less-than-inspiring W-L records. The reason is they tend to play tough non-conference slates. In the case of Grambling State, they lost to Colorado, Iowa State, Dayton, Washington State, Florida, and Drake.  Their world improved when they got to conference play, where they finished the season on a 6-1 run to catapult themselves to an outright championship. The offense is not their thing, but they are decent defensively. They are shooting for their first NCAA Tournament appearance.

Contenders: Alcorn State (14-17, 13-5), Texas Southern (14-15, 12-6), Southern (18-13, 12-6)

Live Long Shot:  Alabama A&M (10-21, 9-9)

Preview:

I limit the number of contenders, but any of these eight teams should feel as if they can win this.

Alcorn State enters the tournament on a 9-game winning streak, though they did lose their only matchup with Grambling State. Their last NCAA appearance was in 2002. While Grambling is about defense, the Braves are better offensively. They average 72.2 points, with senior forward Jeremiah Kendall contributing 16 points and 6.7 rebounds.

Texas Southern will never be counted out. The Tigers’ top four scorers are seniors, with PJ Henry averaging 15.3 points. Most of their non-conference losses were by colossal margins, but they did play Drake within six on the road. They picked up the pace late, going 5-1 in their last six games.

Southern earned some credibility in the non-conference, defeating UNLV and Mississippi State on the road. Perhaps seen as a favorite to win the title after those wins, the Jaguars slipped late. They went 2-4 in their last six games. That slump followed a 7-game winning streak. Part of their slump was due to the loss of guard Tai’reon Joseph, who averaged 20.5 points in 19 games. Suffice it to say, a mid-major losing this level of a star will struggle.

Alabama A&M will play Alcorn State in the 7-vs-2 matchup. They played once this season, a 74-71 win for Alcorn State.

Bottom Line:

This tournament can go in any direction. Southern would be my team with Joseph, but they won’t have him. I think a team earning their first NCAA Tournament bid is fun.

Winner: Grambling State

History: Several teams have left the Mountain West through the years, but San Diego State is a constant and the all-time leader in titles (7) and title-game appearances (15). They have been in the championship game for six straight years.

Returning Champion: San Diego State 

It wasn’t easy, but the Aztecs (as the #1 seed) defeated Colorado State, San Jose State, and Utah State to take the crown. They used their title to make a run to the NCAA Tournament championship game, where they succumbed to UConn. Given the recent poor performance of this multi-bid league, their run to the championship was a welcome sight for the league’s defenders.

Format:  All 11 schools make the field. Teams seeded 1-5 automatically advance to the second round.

Favorite:  Utah State (26-5, 14-4)

There are a lot of possibilities for the “favorite” spot. I am choosing the one who won the regular-season title outright.

The Aggies closed the season with five straight wins. A Top 50 squad in offensive and defensive efficiency, they average 79.9 points while allowing 69.6. Junior forward Great Osobor is a beast, averaging 17.6 points/9.0 rebounds/1.5 blocks. Overall, they are one of the sharpest shooting schools in the country (49.8%; 6th). They were not projected to have a great season, but here they are.

Contenders: Nevada (26-6, 13-5), Boise State (22-9, 13-5), UNLV (19-11, 12-6), San Diego State (22-9, 11-7), New Mexico (22-9, 10-8), Colorado State (22-9, 10-8)

Live Long Shot:  Wyoming (15-16, 8-10)

Preview:

I try to pare down the number of contenders, but how can one differentiate one from the other? Every contender above (other than UNLV) is at least on the bubble (all six are likely getting into the tournament).

Nevada won seven Quad 1 games and finished the season on a 9-1 run that included road wins against Utah State and Colorado State. Senior guard Jarod Lucas averages 17.8 points and shoots 40.1% from beyond the arc. It took a few years but Steve Alford has the program on the right track. This will be their second consecutive NCAA Tournament bid.

Boise State secured six Quad 1 wins and finished the season on a 6-1 run, including a bid-stamping road win over San Diego State in the finale. The Broncos played a tough non-conference slate, including a neutral-court win over St. Mary’s. They lost by five to Washington State. Balance is a good way to describe this squad, as four players average between 12.5 and 16.8 points.

UNLV finished fourth in a league that is looking at six bids. However, they aren’t projected to be one of them, thanks to three Quadrant 4 losses. Their advantage here is that the tournament is played on their home floor. Far removed from the days of high-scoring, must-see entertainment, the Rebels run one of the slowest offenses in the country (312th in adjusted tempo). They finished the year on an impressive 9-2 run and will play San Diego State in the quarterfinal.

While Utah State is my favorite, San Diego State may be the best team. The Aztecs defeated St. Mary’s on a neutral court and Gonzaga on the road in the non-conference (they played one of the toughest non-conference slates). Forward Jaedon Ledee paces the offense with 20.5 points (best in the conference) on 55.7% shooting. His offense supports the defense, which ranks 8th in defensive efficiency. As good as they are, playing UNLV on their home court is not a fun opening matchup.

New Mexico slipped onto the bubble late in the season, thanks to a 4-6 finish that included a horrible loss to Air Force. A top-40 team in offensive and defensive efficiency, the Lobos average 82.6 points. Three players average 15+ points, including Jamal Mashburn Jr., the son of former NBA player Jamal Mashburn. Donovan Dent adds 5.5 assists to his 15.0 scoring average. This team is high-tempo, averaging 45.4 two-point attempts (#1 in the country).

Colorado State knocked off Creighton (neutral), Washington (neutral), and Colorado (home) in the non-conference. The Rams struggled down the stretch and haven’t defeated a top team since their February 17th conquest of Utah State.  They are safely in the tournament unless they lose to San Jose State in the first round. They are a senior-laden team (five top scorers) that will be dangerous once March Madness begins.

Wyoming did something hard to do: The Cowboys went 0-10 in Quadrant 1 games. I am not declaring them as a legitimate threat, because nobody beyond the top seven are legitimate threats. They shoot 36.8% from three (34th in the country), so an upset is possible if they get hot.

Bottom Line:

Your guess is as good as mine. This is a deep and talented field with no obvious favorite. I want to pick Nevada, but they have a potential quarterfinal battle with Colorado State. I would easily go with San Diego State, but they are playing a road game against UNLV. 

Winner: Boise State

History: The Big Ten has produced five straight different conference champions. In the 25 years this tournament has been played, the #1 seed has won ten times.

Michigan State has the most titles, with six. Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana (wow), Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland, and Northwestern have never cut down the nets. The only team to ever win this tournament and the NCAA Tournament in the same year was Michigan State in 2000. That is the last time a Big Ten school won the championship.

Returning Champion: Purdue. As the #1 seed, the Boilermakers struggled, beating Rutgers by five in the quarterfinals and Penn State by two in the championship. I don’t think anyone thought their performance would foreshadow a loss to FDU in a 16-vs-1 game, but that happened.

Format:  All 14 schools make the field. The top four squads automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Purdue (28-3, 17-3)

Three schools are in contention for the #1 overall seed: UConn, Houston, and Purdue. Some would argue that the #1 overall seed isn’t too important in 2024, since the three contenders are all locked into their regions anyway. However, your path to the Final Four should be slightly easier.

The Boilermakers are having a big season. Their various rankings:  NET: 2, RPI: 1, SOR: 1, SOS: 2, Non-conference SOS: 1. They are 11-3 in Quadrant 1 with non-conference wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, Arizona, and Xavier.

Zach Edey is one of the best players in the country, averaging 24.2 points and 11.7 rebounds.

Contenders: Illinois (23-8, 14-6), Nebraska (22-9, 12-8), Northwestern (21-10, 12-8), Wisconsin (19-12, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  Indiana (18-13, 10-10)

Preview:

Are there contenders to win this title? If Purdue is playing anywhere in the vicinity of their best, doubtful. But nothing is impossible.

Illinois went 0-2 against Purdue this season, but both games were played within single digits. Ranked #15 in the NET and 10th in the KenPom, the Fighting Illini is a legitimate (and under-the-radar) Final Four caliber team. They are an offensive juggernaut that ranks #4 in offensive efficiency and 12th in points (83.9). Senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. has 15 20+ point efforts in 24 games, averaging 21.6 points. Four seniors average double digits and are one of the top rebounding teams in the country. They are vulnerable on the defensive side, so that is a storyline.

Nebraska finished the season on a 6-1 run and own the most impressive win over Purdue (88-72). The Cornhuskers are a three-point-heavy offense, averaging 26.2 attempts (33rd). After an impressive road win over Kansas State on December 17th, they didn’t win another road game until their February 21st win over Indiana. This is a good team on the opposite side of the bracket from Purdue so one can see them in the championship.

Northwestern is Purdue’s nemesis. The two squads split their season series, with both games going to overtime. Their methodical pace is efficient, and the Wildcats are a top 3-point shooting squad (39.6%; 7th). Their status on the bubble is due to a bad non-conference schedule, though they did defeat Dayton. As the #4 seed, the chalk would put them in the semi-finals against Purdue.

The chalk would place Wisconsin in that quarterfinal game with Northwestern. The Badgers defeated Virginia by 24 and Marquette by 11 in the non-conference and looked like one of the top teams in the nation when they started 13-3. The second half of the season didn’t go quite as well, as they compiled a 6-9 mark down the stretch. They defeated Northwestern in their only matchup this year. The question is: Can they bounce back in time to make noise here?

Indiana went 4-0 down the stretch, including wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. 7’0″ sophomore center Kel’el Ware averages 16.1 points and 9.8 rebounds. The Hoosiers are a terrible shooting team from the perimeter, but their size can cause issues. After playing the winner of Penn State-Michigan, they should find themselves in the quarterfinals against Nebraska, a team that beat them twice by double digits.

Bottom Line:

I want to find a team that can shock the world, but it isn’t easy. A semi-finals matchup between Purdue and Northwestern will at least make Boilermakers’ fans sweat. But will the result be in serious doubt?

Winner: Purdue

History: The remaining league members are happy New Mexico State has moved on. From 2010-2023, the Aggies won this tournament nine times, including stretches where they won four and three in a row. The new king of the hill is Grand Canyon, who has won the crown in two of the last three years. The Antelopes are the only current league member who has ever won this title.

Returning Champion: Grand Canyon, the #5 seed, defeated top-seeded Sam Houston and #3 Southern Utah to take the title. They played Gonzaga tough in a 14-vs-3 matchup, losing 82-70.

Format:  Eight of the 11 schools make the field. Utah Tech, Southern Utah, and UT Rio Grande Valley didn’t make it. Given that they are in their last year of transitioning to Division I, Utah Tech wouldn’t have been eligible for the NCAA Tournament. Also ineligible is the #2 seed Tarleton State. The tournament is played stepladder style, with the top two seeds automatically placed into the semi-finals.

Favorite:  Grand Canyon (27-4, 17-3)

At one point this season, Grand Canyon was an NCAA Tournament bubble team that received Top 25 votes in the AP poll. Back-to-back road losses to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian ended their at-large dreams, but they are still the heavy favorites to win the tournament. They own a Quad 1 win (home over San Diego State) and lost to South Carolina by only seven points. After their 2-game stumble, they finished the season with three wins by 82 points.

Ranked 55th in the KenPom, they are 63rd in offensive efficiency and 56th in defensive efficiency. They average 79.5 points (allow 66.5). The no-doubt leader is senior guard Tyon Grant-Foster, who averages 19.4 points and 5.9 rebounds.

Contenders: Tarleton State (23-8, 16-4), UT Arlington (18-13, 13-7), Seattle (18-13, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  Abilene Christian (15-16, 10-10)

Preview:

Grand Canyon is in the driver’s seat, as the second-best team in the conference isn’t eligible to go to the NCAA Tournament. Given the tournament structure, they may only need one win to earn the automatic bid (if Tarleton State wins their semi-final game, they will be playing for bragging rights in the title game).

Speaking of Tarleton, they own that win over Grand Canyon and are 11-1 in their last 12 games. In the non-conference, there isn’t usually anything to brag about when you lose by 19. However, they did that at Tennessee, which qualifies as a confidence builder. Their balanced attack includes four players who average between 12.2 and 15.8 points. This is their first winning season in four years of Division I play. They can be a threat for years to come.

UT Arlington lost by only two on the road against New Mexico and 11 to Texas Tech in the non-conference. Like Tarleton, the Mavericks are rolling as of late, winning their final six games. By challenging themselves in the non-conference, they built up their confidence to the point where they are a threat to spoil the party.

Seattle was the first team to beat Grand Canyon in conference play. An 0-3 finish left them with the #4 seed, meaning they could see Grand Canyon again in the semifinals. The Redhawks rely on a solid defense (70th according to the KenPom). In the non-conference, they held VCU to 60 points and San Francisco to 62. Additionally, in a home game, they lost to Washington by a 100-99 margin in two overtimes. They have not reached the NCAA Tournament since 1969, spending several seasons (1981-2008) outside of Division I.

Abilene Christian gets the nod as a longshot due to that win over Grand Canyon. In the season opener, they announced their presence when they defeated Oklahoma State by five on the road. Also enhancing their resume is a 7-1 finish to the season, including a win over their first-round opponent (Stephen F. Austin).

Bottom Line:

Grand Canyon is the favorite, but other teams finished the season on high notes. The stepladder format and Tarleton State‘s ineligibility make their job much easier.

Winner: Grand Canyon

History: The last ten tournaments have been won by Kansas (4), Iowa State (4), and Texas (2). Only six schools have won this tournament, which started in 1997. One of those schools (Missouri) has since moved on to the SEC. Historically, Kansas is the team everyone else chases. They own a 47-12 record in Big 12 Tournament games, including a 12-4 mark in the title game.

Returning Champion: Texas. The #2 seed mauled top-seeded Kansas in the title game by 20. They used the win to catapult them to the Elite Eight, where they lost to Miami by seven.

Format:  With four new schools, the tournament has expanded to include all 14 teams. The top four seeds automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Houston (28-3, 15-3)

“Yes, they dominated the AAC – but how will they fare in the Big 12?” The answer? Quite well, as the Cougars won the regular-season conference title and are a favorite to be the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. No team in the country is in the top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency, but Houston is close. They are 11th in offense and 1st in defense. Despite playing in the toughest conference and a non-conference slate that included Dayton, Utah, Xavier, and Texas A&M, the Cougars allowed only 56.9 points. It takes a special commitment for top college players to be this tenacious on defense.

While they score enough and are efficient offensively, they are prone to shooting slumps. That is likely the only way for 95% of the country to beat them – on a cold shooting day.

Contenders: Iowa State (24-7, 13-5), Baylor (22-9, 11-7), Texas Tech (22-9, 11-7), BYU (22-9, 10-8), Texas (20-11, 9-9)

Live Long Shot:  UCF (17-14, 7-11)

Preview:

The nation’s toughest league has a tournament where one team shines well above the rest. If you are wondering where Kansas is, they lost Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson for the duration of the Big 12 Tournament. It is hard to list them as a contender without them.

Iowa State was a hidden power early in the season. The Cyclones didn’t play a great non-conference schedule and lost games to Virginia Tech and Texas A&M. After losing their conference opener to Oklahoma, they shocked the basketball world with a win over Houston. Now they are sitting on eight Quad 1 wins and a 9-2 finish to the year. They rank second in the nation (to Houston) in defensive efficiency and they allowed only 62.1 points. Their offense can get in the way of their success, and that is a storyline to follow.

Baylor jumped out to a 9-0 start that included wins over Auburn, Florida, and Seton Hall. The winner of nine Quad 1 games, they predictably weren’t as solid inside the conference as they were outside it. While Houston and Iowa State like to smother you on defense, the Bears want to beat you with their offense. They are 5th in offensive efficiency, shoot 39.8% from three (5th), and score 81.5 points (24th). Six players average double-digits per game.

Texas Tech played two good teams in the non-conference and lost both of them (Villanova and Butler). That left them in the danger zone entering conference play, but they hung tough with wins over Texas (road), Kansas State, BYU, Kansas, and Baylor. Offensively, sophomore guard Pop Isaacs is tough to contain, averaging 16 points and 3.6 assists.

Like Houston, BYU is a newcomer to the league. Like Houston, the Cougars proved that they can win games in tougher surroundings. This is an offense-first team that plays at a quicker tempo than most in the Big 12. They average 82.2 points, hitting on 11.3 three-pointers (2nd in the nation). This team likes to shoot and distribute, as evidenced by their 18.7 assists (3rd). They own ten Quad 1/2 wins, including a non-conference victory over San Diego State. That was a big win, as their non-conference schedule was not strong.

Texas wasn’t on my original contenders list, but I figured the best conference deserves an extra team. A senior guard/forward combo (Max Abmas and Dylan Disu) are the team leaders. If Abmas’ name sounds familiar, he wowed us in the NCAA Tournament in 2021, when he scored 80 points in three NCAA Tournament games for Oral Roberts. His move to a larger school predictably lowered his scoring average, but he still averages 16.8 points and 4.3 assists.

UCF was on the tournament bubble for a while this year. They finished the season with a victory on the road over TCU, and they played a pair of tough games against BYU, their potential 2nd round opponent (they first need to get past Oklahoma State). I picked them as the sleeper because I think BYU and Texas Tech are beatable. This is a good team that got swallowed up in a crazy-good conference.

Bottom Line:

Kansas is decimated, but I am not sure if they would be a massive threat to Houston either way. I like to find ways to beat the favorite, but the Cougars are too good right now.

Winner: Houston

History: Over the last seven years, seven different teams have won the Atlantic-10 Tournament (the tournament wasn’t played in 2020. If it was played, Dayton likely makes it eight different teams in eight years). Temple, who left the league years ago, leads the way with nine tournament wins. Amongst teams still in the conference, UMass leads the way with five. Those five were won consecutively between 1992-1996.

The A-10 has produced multiple bids in the past, but it is unlikely in 2024 unless Dayton loses in the tournament.

Returning Champion: VCU. Hardly anyone challenged the Rams, who won their three games by a combined 42 points. They played an ugly game against St. Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament. St. Mary’s won the game, 63-51.

Format:  All 15 schools make it. The top four schools automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Dayton (24-6, 14-4)

The Flyers are guaranteed an NCAA Tournament spot, despite being the #3 seed in the tournament. A strong non-conference strength of schedule that featured wins over St. John’s (neutral), SMU (road), and Cincinnati (neutral) helped their resume immensely, as did playing Northwestern (5-point loss) and Houston (14-point loss). They are 7-6 in Quad 1/2 games and have zero bad losses.

While their 66.3 points against would suggest they are a defense-first team, the facts seem to point to them being better on the offensive side of the ball. They shoot 48.2% from the field (27th) and 40.7% from three (3rd). DaRon Holmes is a legitimate college basketball star, averaging 20.2 points and 8.3 rebounds. The 6’10” forward improved his three-point shooting this season, hitting 38.7% of his long-range jumpers.

Contenders: Richmond (23-8, 15-3), Loyola-Chicago (23-8, 15-3), UMass (20-10, 11-7), VCU (19-12, 11-7)

Live Long Shot:  La Salle (15-16, 6-12)

Preview:

I have a limit on the number of “Contenders” to list, otherwise, these previews can go on forever. However, this conference has a lot of contenders I did not list. It wouldn’t surprise me if George Mason (20 wins), St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph’s, or Duquesne (20 wins) won this tournament. St. Joseph’s defeated Villanova on their way to winning the Big 5 Classic and lost by eight to Kentucky in overtime. George Mason has a win over Dayton and beat Richmond by 18 in the season finale. If they can win the 8-9 game over St. Joseph’s, they would play Richmond in the quarterfinals. Duquesne went 0-3 in Quadrant 1 but won six games in Quadrant 2. They enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak. St. Bonaventure is a 7 seed who could match up with Loyola-Chicago in the quarterfinals. The Bonnies defeated the Ramblers in their only meeting this year.

I am open to picking any of those teams to win, but let’s take a closer look at the contenders I chose:

Richmond is the surprise #1 seed. The Spiders destroyed UNLV on a neutral court and ended the season on a 6-1 run that clinched them a piece of the conference title. The senior-laden squad received a big season out of guard Jordan King (18.5 points) and has a top 30 defensive squad in the nation (KenPom). They allow only 66.1 points.

Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 in their first year in the Atlantic-10, perhaps leading to whispers that they will never be the same team they were in the Missouri Valley. They silenced any critics this season. Like Richmond, defense is their strength (24th in defensive efficiency) and they enter the tournament on a 10-1 run that includes a win over Dayton. Unlike Richmond, they don’t have a big star who can take over games. However, their balanced attack averages 73.4 points, mid-pack in the country.

UMass has been dormant forever. Other than their 8-7 record during the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season, they hadn’t put together a winning season since 2014-2015, when they went 17-15. They have had one NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998. Frank Martin, who turned around the South Carolina program (including a Final Four appearance in 2017), is taking his third team (he also coached at Kansas State) on a magic carpet ride. They defeated South Florida in the non-conference and knocked off VCU (their potential quarterfinals opponent) in their only meeting this season.

VCU shouldn’t be ignored. The Rams had trouble getting over the hump in the non-conference but they had several close calls. They lost to Iowa State by four, Boise State by four, and Memphis by five in overtime. They lost their final three games, including road losses to Richmond (by three) and Dayton (overtime). In other words, if some of these coin flips went their way, we would have a bubble conversation. Now, they need to prove they are better than a team that keeps coming up short.

If La Salle survives this gauntlet, it would be a miracle. The Explorers went 4-2 down the stretch, including wins over UMass and Duquesne. They were chosen as the sleeper because they play in a 10-vs-15 game that feeds into #7 seed St. Bonaventure. One can see a faint path for them to make some noise.

Bottom Line:

You can make a case for most of the teams in this conference. Like the Mountain West, this league is deep and unpredictable. While the Mountain West could get six teams in the tournament, the A-10 is looking at two at the most. I feel as if taking a team at random is as good as any analysis.

Winner: Loyola-Chicago