Category: College Basketball

History: The last ten tournaments have been won by Kansas (4), Iowa State (4), and Texas (2). Only six schools have won this tournament, which started in 1997. One of those schools (Missouri) has since moved on to the SEC. Historically, Kansas is the team everyone else chases. They own a 47-12 record in Big 12 Tournament games, including a 12-4 mark in the title game.

Returning Champion: Texas. The #2 seed mauled top-seeded Kansas in the title game by 20. They used the win to catapult them to the Elite Eight, where they lost to Miami by seven.

Format:  With four new schools, the tournament has expanded to include all 14 teams. The top four seeds automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Houston (28-3, 15-3)

“Yes, they dominated the AAC – but how will they fare in the Big 12?” The answer? Quite well, as the Cougars won the regular-season conference title and are a favorite to be the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. No team in the country is in the top ten in offensive and defensive efficiency, but Houston is close. They are 11th in offense and 1st in defense. Despite playing in the toughest conference and a non-conference slate that included Dayton, Utah, Xavier, and Texas A&M, the Cougars allowed only 56.9 points. It takes a special commitment for top college players to be this tenacious on defense.

While they score enough and are efficient offensively, they are prone to shooting slumps. That is likely the only way for 95% of the country to beat them – on a cold shooting day.

Contenders: Iowa State (24-7, 13-5), Baylor (22-9, 11-7), Texas Tech (22-9, 11-7), BYU (22-9, 10-8), Texas (20-11, 9-9)

Live Long Shot:  UCF (17-14, 7-11)

Preview:

The nation’s toughest league has a tournament where one team shines well above the rest. If you are wondering where Kansas is, they lost Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson for the duration of the Big 12 Tournament. It is hard to list them as a contender without them.

Iowa State was a hidden power early in the season. The Cyclones didn’t play a great non-conference schedule and lost games to Virginia Tech and Texas A&M. After losing their conference opener to Oklahoma, they shocked the basketball world with a win over Houston. Now they are sitting on eight Quad 1 wins and a 9-2 finish to the year. They rank second in the nation (to Houston) in defensive efficiency and they allowed only 62.1 points. Their offense can get in the way of their success, and that is a storyline to follow.

Baylor jumped out to a 9-0 start that included wins over Auburn, Florida, and Seton Hall. The winner of nine Quad 1 games, they predictably weren’t as solid inside the conference as they were outside it. While Houston and Iowa State like to smother you on defense, the Bears want to beat you with their offense. They are 5th in offensive efficiency, shoot 39.8% from three (5th), and score 81.5 points (24th). Six players average double-digits per game.

Texas Tech played two good teams in the non-conference and lost both of them (Villanova and Butler). That left them in the danger zone entering conference play, but they hung tough with wins over Texas (road), Kansas State, BYU, Kansas, and Baylor. Offensively, sophomore guard Pop Isaacs is tough to contain, averaging 16 points and 3.6 assists.

Like Houston, BYU is a newcomer to the league. Like Houston, the Cougars proved that they can win games in tougher surroundings. This is an offense-first team that plays at a quicker tempo than most in the Big 12. They average 82.2 points, hitting on 11.3 three-pointers (2nd in the nation). This team likes to shoot and distribute, as evidenced by their 18.7 assists (3rd). They own ten Quad 1/2 wins, including a non-conference victory over San Diego State. That was a big win, as their non-conference schedule was not strong.

Texas wasn’t on my original contenders list, but I figured the best conference deserves an extra team. A senior guard/forward combo (Max Abmas and Dylan Disu) are the team leaders. If Abmas’ name sounds familiar, he wowed us in the NCAA Tournament in 2021, when he scored 80 points in three NCAA Tournament games for Oral Roberts. His move to a larger school predictably lowered his scoring average, but he still averages 16.8 points and 4.3 assists.

UCF was on the tournament bubble for a while this year. They finished the season with a victory on the road over TCU, and they played a pair of tough games against BYU, their potential 2nd round opponent (they first need to get past Oklahoma State). I picked them as the sleeper because I think BYU and Texas Tech are beatable. This is a good team that got swallowed up in a crazy-good conference.

Bottom Line:

Kansas is decimated, but I am not sure if they would be a massive threat to Houston either way. I like to find ways to beat the favorite, but the Cougars are too good right now.

Winner: Houston

History: Over the last seven years, seven different teams have won the Atlantic-10 Tournament (the tournament wasn’t played in 2020. If it was played, Dayton likely makes it eight different teams in eight years). Temple, who left the league years ago, leads the way with nine tournament wins. Amongst teams still in the conference, UMass leads the way with five. Those five were won consecutively between 1992-1996.

The A-10 has produced multiple bids in the past, but it is unlikely in 2024 unless Dayton loses in the tournament.

Returning Champion: VCU. Hardly anyone challenged the Rams, who won their three games by a combined 42 points. They played an ugly game against St. Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament. St. Mary’s won the game, 63-51.

Format:  All 15 schools make it. The top four schools automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Dayton (24-6, 14-4)

The Flyers are guaranteed an NCAA Tournament spot, despite being the #3 seed in the tournament. A strong non-conference strength of schedule that featured wins over St. John’s (neutral), SMU (road), and Cincinnati (neutral) helped their resume immensely, as did playing Northwestern (5-point loss) and Houston (14-point loss). They are 7-6 in Quad 1/2 games and have zero bad losses.

While their 66.3 points against would suggest they are a defense-first team, the facts seem to point to them being better on the offensive side of the ball. They shoot 48.2% from the field (27th) and 40.7% from three (3rd). DaRon Holmes is a legitimate college basketball star, averaging 20.2 points and 8.3 rebounds. The 6’10” forward improved his three-point shooting this season, hitting 38.7% of his long-range jumpers.

Contenders: Richmond (23-8, 15-3), Loyola-Chicago (23-8, 15-3), UMass (20-10, 11-7), VCU (19-12, 11-7)

Live Long Shot:  La Salle (15-16, 6-12)

Preview:

I have a limit on the number of “Contenders” to list, otherwise, these previews can go on forever. However, this conference has a lot of contenders I did not list. It wouldn’t surprise me if George Mason (20 wins), St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph’s, or Duquesne (20 wins) won this tournament. St. Joseph’s defeated Villanova on their way to winning the Big 5 Classic and lost by eight to Kentucky in overtime. George Mason has a win over Dayton and beat Richmond by 18 in the season finale. If they can win the 8-9 game over St. Joseph’s, they would play Richmond in the quarterfinals. Duquesne went 0-3 in Quadrant 1 but won six games in Quadrant 2. They enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak. St. Bonaventure is a 7 seed who could match up with Loyola-Chicago in the quarterfinals. The Bonnies defeated the Ramblers in their only meeting this year.

I am open to picking any of those teams to win, but let’s take a closer look at the contenders I chose:

Richmond is the surprise #1 seed. The Spiders destroyed UNLV on a neutral court and ended the season on a 6-1 run that clinched them a piece of the conference title. The senior-laden squad received a big season out of guard Jordan King (18.5 points) and has a top 30 defensive squad in the nation (KenPom). They allow only 66.1 points.

Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 in their first year in the Atlantic-10, perhaps leading to whispers that they will never be the same team they were in the Missouri Valley. They silenced any critics this season. Like Richmond, defense is their strength (24th in defensive efficiency) and they enter the tournament on a 10-1 run that includes a win over Dayton. Unlike Richmond, they don’t have a big star who can take over games. However, their balanced attack averages 73.4 points, mid-pack in the country.

UMass has been dormant forever. Other than their 8-7 record during the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season, they hadn’t put together a winning season since 2014-2015, when they went 17-15. They have had one NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998. Frank Martin, who turned around the South Carolina program (including a Final Four appearance in 2017), is taking his third team (he also coached at Kansas State) on a magic carpet ride. They defeated South Florida in the non-conference and knocked off VCU (their potential quarterfinals opponent) in their only meeting this season.

VCU shouldn’t be ignored. The Rams had trouble getting over the hump in the non-conference but they had several close calls. They lost to Iowa State by four, Boise State by four, and Memphis by five in overtime. They lost their final three games, including road losses to Richmond (by three) and Dayton (overtime). In other words, if some of these coin flips went their way, we would have a bubble conversation. Now, they need to prove they are better than a team that keeps coming up short.

If La Salle survives this gauntlet, it would be a miracle. The Explorers went 4-2 down the stretch, including wins over UMass and Duquesne. They were chosen as the sleeper because they play in a 10-vs-15 game that feeds into #7 seed St. Bonaventure. One can see a faint path for them to make some noise.

Bottom Line:

You can make a case for most of the teams in this conference. Like the Mountain West, this league is deep and unpredictable. While the Mountain West could get six teams in the tournament, the A-10 is looking at two at the most. I feel as if taking a team at random is as good as any analysis.

Winner: Loyola-Chicago

History: A conference loaded with history has three teams with 10+ tournament titles (Duke (22), North Carolina (18), and North Carolina State (10)). North Carolina State hasn’t won since 1987, however. It might surprise some that Syracuse and Louisville haven’t won a title since joining the league. Clemson, a league member since 1953, is also without a title.

The last team to pull off the ACC Tournament/NCAA Tournament double was Duke in 2010.

Returning Champion: Duke. The Blue Devils, as the #4 seed, took out top-seeded Miami in the semi-finals and second-seeded Virginia in the title game. In the NCAA Tournament, as a #5 seed, they lost to #4 seed Tennessee in the Round of 32.

Format:  All 15 schools make the tournament. Teams seeded 1-4 automatically go through to the quarterfinals. In the first round, #12 takes on #13, #10 takes on #15, and #11 takes on #14.

Favorite:  North Carolina (25-6, 17-3)

A 2-3 stretch from late January into early February left the Tar Heels vulnerable to losing the conference title. They followed that up with six straight wins to end the season.

While a #1 seed is unlikely, they can point to a head-to-head win over Tennessee in the ACC/SEC Challenge (the game was at home) as a reason they should be considered if they were to win the ACC Tournament.

One of the things that differentiates this North Carolina squad from past ones is their ability to play defense. They rank 5th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. Offensively, they average 81.6 points (23rd in the nation).

Contenders: Duke (24-7, 15-5), Virginia (22-9, 13-7, Clemson (21-10, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  Miami (15-16, 6-14)

Preview:

Duke struggled against North Carolina this season. However, it would be a mistake to discount a team that went 11-1 in games not played against the Tar Heels down the stretch. Their side of the bracket includes Virginia, Clemson, Syracuse, North Carolina State, Boston College, Miami, and Louisville. The Blue Devils went 8-0 against those teams this season, with only one game (Clemson) in doubt. In the non-conference, they lost to Arizona by five but defeated Baylor by eight. Despite being swept by North Carolina, they are one spot higher than them in the KenPom and their offense remains elite (7th in the KenPom; 80.2 points per game).

Virginia can’t score. This isn’t a case of an efficient team. They are 189th in offense (KenPom) and average only 63.5 points. In their final three losses, they scored 41 points against Virginia Tech, 44 points against North Carolina, and 48 points against Duke. Their saving grace is a 36.7% three-point percentage, though they don’t attempt many three-pointers per game. Defensively, they are one of the best in the nation in both defensive efficiency and points allowed (59.1). This keeps them in many games, but elite teams have mostly clobbered them.

Clemson made their presence known early in the season when they started 9-0 with wins over Boise State, Alabama, South Carolina, and TCU. Conference play wasn’t as friendly to them, though they did earn a win at North Carolina and a 1-point loss at Duke. Though they lost to Virginia at home, that is their path to the semifinals, where another date with Duke could await. Senior guard/forward trio Joseph Girard (15.7 points/2.9 assists), Chase Hunter (12.6 points/2.9 assists), and PJ Hall (18.8 points/6.6 rebounds) are what makes this team dangerous.

Miami was a preseason Top 25 team that fell apart. After a 5-0 start that included a win over Kansas State to take the Bahamas Championship, things started going haywire after blowout losses to Kentucky (22 points) and Colorado (27). The Hurricanes were still in the at-large conversation until they finished the season with nine straight losses. The Hurricanes can hit three-pointers (36.6%; 45th in the nation) and have the experience and star player (Norchard Omier) to surprise a few teams. Their path does not include Duke or North Carolina, so a minor run doesn’t seem impossible.

While I don’t see Wake Forest or Pittsburgh as major threats to win the tournament, their potential quarterfinal matchup could be an elimination game for the NCAA Tournament Bubble picture.

Bottom Line:

Duke and North Carolina have the upper hand. However, maybe it is time for a long drought to end.

Winner: Clemson cuts down the nets.

The conference tournaments are in full swing, and there are a few storylines to follow – notably, bid stealers.

All of the power conferences have the potential for bid stealing. If Rutgers gets hot and wins the Big Ten Tournament, someone loses their bid. As for the smaller conferences, there is potential for some bid-stealers. Teams on the tournament bubble want to pay attention to the Atlantic-10 (Dayton is in), AAC (Florida Atlantic is likely in), WCC (Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are safely in), and Mountain West (several teams are in, but the team to watch is UNLV).

One potential bid stealer won on Sunday when Drake knocked off Indiana State in the MVC final. Indiana State is on the bubble.

ACC

In:
North Carolina [25-6 (17-3), Quad 1: 7-4; NET: 7]
Duke [24-7 (15-5), Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 10]
Clemson [21-10 (11-9); Quad 1: 5-5; NET: 26]

Bubble:
Wake Forest [19-12 (11-9); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 38]
Pittsburgh [21-10 (12-8); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 44]
Virginia [22-9 (13-7); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 51]
Virginia Tech [18-13 (10-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 56]

Wake Forest did their job when they knocked off Clemson in the finale. In their final six games, they defeated Duke, Pittsburgh, and Clemson while losing to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech. If anything sums up a middling bubble team, that should do it.

Essentially, North Carolina will be a #2 seed while Duke is likely a #3 with the potential to move up to a #2. Clemson is in, while the four bubble teams all need to do something in the ACC Tournament. If everything goes by the chalk, Wake Forest will take on Pittsburgh in the quarterfinals, while Virginia could be looking at a date with Clemson. Virginia Tech will need to get by Georgia Tech to get a shot at North Carolina.  I think one of the four teams will do enough to earn a bid, with the Pitt-Wake Forest game essentially an elimination game.

Yes, it speaks to the state of the ACC when Virginia, as a #3 seed, needs help to get to the NCAA Tournament. I can’t think of a weaker #3 seed in the history of the tournament.

American Athletic

In:

Florida Atlantic [24-7 (14-4); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 34]

Bubble:
Memphis [22-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 69]
South Florida [23-6 (16-2); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 78]

Florida Atlantic defeated Memphis in the season finale, and that should be enough.

As for the rest, I have taken SMU off the list. Their NET is solid (55), but they didn’t win a Quad 1 game. Memphis would have a better case if they had completed the sweep of Florida Atlantic, but they failed. South Florida was relying on a major winning streak that was snapped in the season finale.

Essentially, this is a one-bid league that bubble teams have to watch carefully. If Florida Atlantic doesn’t win the crown, a bid will be stolen.

Atlantic 10

In:
Dayton [24-6 (14-4), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]

Bubble:
None

Like Florida Atlantic, Dayton is not the top seed despite being the best team. The Flyers are in, but the tournament is one of the most wide-open in the country. Eight teams are in the NET Top 100, and nine teams have at least one Quadrant 1 victory. While I would give Florida Atlantic a 60% or so chance of winning the AAC, the strength and balance of the A-10 places Dayton under the 50% barrier – I would give them a 40% shot at cutting down the nets. As I stated last week, the only saving grace for bubble teams is that there is no chance for three bids here. Richmond, Loyola-Chicago, and VCU didn’t do enough to get into the at-large conversation.

Big 12

In:
Houston [28-3 (15-3), Quad 1: 13-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [24-7 (13-5); Quad 1: 8-6; NET: 9]
BYU [22-9 (10-8), Quad 1: 6-7; NET: 12]
Baylor [22-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 9-8; NET: 14]
Kansas [22-9 (10-8); Quad 1: 7-8; NET: 18]
Texas [20-11 (9-9); Quad 1: 5-9; NET: 24]
Texas Tech [22-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 30]

Bubble
TCU [20-11 (9-9); Quad 1: 4-10; NET: 40]
Cincinnati [18-13 (7-11); Quad 1: 3-10; NET: 41]
Oklahoma [20-11 (8-10); Quad 1: 4-11; NET: 43]
Kansas State [18-13 (8-10); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 70]

Texas Tech is the 7th team from the Big 12 to earn a lock status.

This conference will not receive 11 bids. The most likely scenario puts them at nine, with TCU and Oklahoma the most likely other two squads. However, the two squads match up in the 8-vs-9 matchup in the second round, with the winner going on to face Houston. Their matchup may be an elimination matchup. Both teams didn’t play strong non-conference schedules, and their combined 8-21 mark in Quad 1 is hardly convincing. Both rely more on the lack of bad losses (Oklahoma didn’t lose outside of Quad 1, while TCU has a Quad 2 loss) than they do high-quality wins.

At the very least, Cincinnati would need to defeat Kansas in the second round while Kansas State may just need to beat both Texas and Iowa State to re-enter the conversation.

Big East

In:
UConn [28-3 (18-2); Quad 1: 11-3; NET: 3]
Creighton [23-8 (14-6); Quad 1: 8-5; NET: 11]
Marquette [23-8 (14-6); Quad 1: 8-7; NET: 13]

Bubble:
Villanova [17-14 (10-10); Quad 1: 4-10; NET: 33]
St. John’s [19-12 (11-9); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 39]
Seton Hall [20-11 (13-7); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 62]
Providence [19-12 (10-10); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 64]
Butler [18-13 (9-11); Quad 1: 4-11; NET: 66]

It took a while to get some clarity, but we are getting closer to having this conference sort itself out. The first-round game between St. John’s and Seton Hall is fascinating, and probably more important for St. John’s. The Red Storm lost two Quad 1 wins when their victories over Villanova and Utah slipped back down to Quad 2. They are teetering on the Last Four In/First Four Out line, so beating Seton Hall is their way of feeling safer on Selection Sunday. The teams that need to do something significant are Villanova and Providence. Providence beating Georgetown and Villanova beating DePaul will do nothing to enhance their chances (lose those games, and they are done). It’s those juicy second-round matchups that will make or break them: Villanova would play Marquette while Providence would take on Creighton. When you look at all the big conference tournaments, those two games could have the most significant impact on where the bubble tilts. As for Butler, when you are in desperation mode, you want to play the best (UConn). That is what will happen if they can first get past Xavier.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [28-3 (17-3); Quad 1: 12-3; NET: 2]
Illinois [23-8 (14-6); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 15]
Wisconsin [19-12 (11-9); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 22]
Michigan State [18-13 (10-10); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 25]

Bubble:
Nebraska [22-9 (12-8); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 37]
Northwestern [21-10 (12-8); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 50]
Ohio State [19-12 (9-11); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 54]
Iowa [18-13 (10-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 60]

Like the Big East, the Big Ten has been a conference of haves and have not most of the year. While the Big East has a little more clarity now, the Big Ten does not. Northwestern has the advantage with those Quad 1 wins. Seriously, their loss to Chicago State (what the heck?) was so damaging to their resume. Without that loss, they would be unbeaten in Quad 3/4 with flashy wins over Dayton, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, and Nebraska. The Wildcats can also brag about taking Purdue to overtime on the road. It’s a combination of a not-so-good non-conference schedule (beyond Dayton) and a singular bad loss that keeps them sweating.

Does Michigan State deserve to slip back to the bubble? For now, I am saying no. Their NET remains strong enough to be considered “safe,” though they better not lose that 8-vs-9 game against Minnesota (18-13, 9-11).

Iowa and Ohio State face off in the 7-vs-10 contest. The winner is not guaranteed to go to the NCAA Tournament (they will likely need to defeat Illinois in the quarterfinals). However, the loser will be eliminated from consideration.

Missouri Valley

In:
Drake won the conference tournament.

Bubble:
Indiana State [28-6 (17-3); Quad 1: 1-4; NET: 29]

A frantic comeback came up short for Indiana State and they will now sweat out Selection Sunday. The Sycamores have a strong NET and good KenPom (43rd, better than Utah State, Washington State, Pittsburgh, and South Carolina). Their lack of Quad 1 wins will hold them back, but they are 4-1 in Quadrant 2. It’s a solid resume – one that should be enough for one of the nation’s best mid-major teams.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [22-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 20]
Boise State [22-9 (13-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 23]
Nevada [26-6 (13-5); Quad 1: 7-5; NET: 31]
Utah State [26-5 (14-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 32]

Bubble:
New Mexico [22-9 (10-8); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 28]
Colorado State [22-9 (10-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 36]
UNLV [19-11 (12-6); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 75]

It’s time to lock in three more teams. Boise State has six Quad 1 wins and Nevada has seven. Utah State won a tough conference outright and has one loss outside of Quad 1 (a Quad 2 loss to Bradley).

New Mexico has a better NET than Nevada and Utah State, but their resume isn’t as strong. The Lobos have as many Quad 1 wins as they do Quad 3/4 losses (2). They will get a first-round matchup against Air Force. Lose that game and they will be sweating profusely on Sunday. I don’t think they will need to follow that up with a win over Boise State.  Colorado State earned huge non-conference wins (Creighton, Colorado). In their case, they can’t afford to lose to San Jose State in the first round.

UNLV gets the Mountain West Tournament on their home floor. Their only path to the NCAA Tournament is winning the conference tourney. They were indeed missing a key player earlier this season, but it doesn’t excuse three Quad 4 losses.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [24-7 (15-5); Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 4]
Washington State [23-8 (14-6); Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 45]

Bubble:
Colorado [22-9 (13-7); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 27]
Utah [18-13 (9-11); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 52]
Oregon [20-11 (12-8); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 68]

Arizona may have blown their chance at a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament when they lost to USC. It still isn’t out of the question, though. You may be curious about Washington State, whose NET is not heading in a good direction. The Cougars are sitting on six Quad 1 wins, including a sweep of Arizona and a neutral-court win over Boise State. Yeah, they don’t want to lose to the winner of the California-Stanford game, but they are a safe team.

Colorado (KenPom: 27) benefited the most this weekend when they swept through Oregon. Their 6-game winning streak includes wins over Oregon and Utah and they haven’t lost a Quad 3/4 game. They get the winner of Utah-Arizona State in the second round.

While Colorado helped themselves in Oregon, Utah hurt themselves as they lost both games. The Utes will want the committee to look at their solid non-conference schedule (which includes a home win over BYU, a neutral court win over Wake Forest and a road win over St. Mary’s). They likely will need to beat Arizona State and Colorado to get back into the “Last four in” mix.

Oregon is nearly dead. Their saving grace is that they earned a first-round bye and a potential semi-final date with Arizona.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [24-7 (14-4), Quad 1: 7-6; NET: 5]
Auburn [24-7 (13-5); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 6]
Alabama [21-10 (13-5); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 8]
Kentucky [23-8 (13-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 19]
Florida [21-10 (11-7); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 35]
South Carolina [25-6 (13-5); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 49]

Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-12 (8-10); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 42]
Texas A&M [18-13 (9-9); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 46]

Tennessee had a chance to stamp their ticket to the #1 seed in the West but lost to Kentucky at home. While it is possible that North Carolina can enter the discussion, this is likely to come down to how Arizona and Tennessee fare in their conference tournaments. For Arizona, the difference between #1 and #2 isn’t much, as they will be out West regardless.

I am locking South Carolina in (finally). How many SEC teams with 25 regular-season wins (and 13 conference wins) are going to be left out? While their non-conference wasn’t great, they earned eight road wins this season (including Tennessee, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State). As for Florida, losing to Vanderbilt was a bad loss. They should still feel good about themselves.

Mississippi State is the pure definition of a bubble team. On the good side, they have several solid wins. They lost their final four regular-season games, but all were against top-notch competition and three of the four games were close. Texas A&M is relying on their five Quad 1 wins. Here’s their big chance to improve their resume: If they get past Ole Miss in the first round, they’ll get a shot at Kentucky. What more can a bubble team ask for?

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [30-3 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 55]

James Madison is in the title game of the Sun Belt Conference, where they will face off with Arkansas State, who upset top-seeded Appalachian State in the semi-finals. How crazy was that win? Appalachian State beat Arkansas State by 23 nine days earlier. The bad news for James Madison is that any shot at an at-large likely required losing to Appalachian State in the championship. A loss to Arkansas State does nothing for them.

West Coast

In:

Gonzaga [24-6 (14-2); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 16]
St. Mary’s [24-7 (15-1); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 17]

Bubble:

None.

Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are safely in the tournament and nobody else has a shot. Bubble teams need one or the other to take this title.

History: Iona has dominated this tournament over the last several years, winning six of the last seven competitions. In the other year (2022), Saint Peter’s won the championship and became the first #15 seed to make it to the Elite Eight.

Overall, Iona has 14 championships. Manhattan and Siena are tied for second-most with five titles.

Returning Champion: Iona. In his final year as head coach, Rick Pitino‘s squad won three straight games by double-digits. In the title game, the Gaels defeated upstart Marist (the #11 seed) by 21. In the NCAA Tournament, as a #13 seed, they fought UConn hard for a half before the Huskies ran away from them and the entire NCAA Tournament field.

Format:  All 11 schools make the field. The top five schools automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Quinnipiac (23-8, 15-5)

The Bobcats have never made it to the NCAA Tournament. This year’s squad scores 78.4 points (62nd in the nation), with senior guard Matt Balanc leading the way (18.5 points/4.8 rebounds). They played one Quad 1 game (a road loss to Florida) and enter this tournament on a 4-game winning streak.

Contenders: Fairfield (20-11, 14-6), Marist (17-12, 12-8), Rider (15-16, 12-8)

Live Long Shot:  Mount St. Mary’s (13-18, 9-11)

Preview:

Fairfield has the league’s best NET (163rd) but didn’t play a Quad 1 game. However, the Stags defeated Yale on the road in a Quad 2 game. They finished the season on a 5-1 run. Three senior guards lead the way, with Jalen Leach (16.4 points/4.1 rebounds/3.1 assists), Caleb Fields (16.1 points/3.8 rebounds), and Brycen Goodine (14.6 points). Goodine was a Top 100 recruit for Syracuse years back and also played a few years for Providence. 

Marist is not about scoring. The Red Foxes rank 6th in the nation in defensive scoring (62.2) on 41% shooting. This is a young team, with the three top scorers either freshmen or sophomores. In the non-conference, they lost to Notre Dame by four.

Rider was 5-8 in conference play at one point, before they ended the season on a seven-game winning streak that places them squarely amongst the favorites. The Broncs challenged themselves in the non-conference, though they weren’t particularly close to pulling off an upset. The five leading scorers on this squad are seniors, led by forward Marvin James, who averages 19.0 points and 6.0 rebounds. This university hasn’t made it to the NCAA Tournament since 1994.

Mount St. Mary’s played Maryland within 15 and Ole Miss within nine in non-conference road games. If they win their 8-vs-9 game against Canisius, they will get a shot at top-seeded Quinnipiac. The two schools split their games this year (both were blowouts), with Mount St. Mary’s putting up 96 points back on February 10th. The Mountaineers are 2-5 since.

Bottom Line:

Pick out of a hat. Iona is no longer the beast school here, which opens up a lot of possibilities for a team destined to be a #16 seed.

Winner: Rider is the hot team with the star player.

History: Conference USA often feels like the island of misfit toys. The last time a current league member won the championship was in 2017 when Middle Tennessee cut down the nets. The Blue Raiders are the only current league member who has ever won this championship. Since 2017, Marshall, Old Dominion, North Texas, UAB, and Florida Atlantic have won.

Returning Champion: Florida Atlantic. The Owls, 18-2 in conference play, won the title by 22 over UAB. That catapulted them to the Final Four in the NCAA Tournament, where they lost a heartbreaker to San Diego State.

Format:  All nine schools make the field. The #8 and #9 seeds play in the first round for the right to take on the #1 seed.

Favorite:  Sam Houston (20-11, 13-3)

This was Sam Houston’s first year in Conference USA, and they made it count. The Bearkats won their final seven games.

Nothing stands out about them. They didn’t win any big games in the non-conference and are mid-pack in most categories. That said, the roster is loaded with juniors and seniors, and they swept the league’s second-best team (Louisiana Tech) during the regular season.

Contenders: Louisiana Tech (22-9, 12-4), Western Kentucky (19-11, 8-8), Liberty (18-13, 7-9)

Live Long Shot:  New Mexico State (13-18, 7-9)

Preview:

Louisiana Tech is a Top 100 team in the NET. In the non-conference, they own an impressive win over fellow mid-major McNeese, a team that lost three games. They finished the season on a 6-1 run, though the one less was to Sam Houston. The Bulldogs, a constant presence in the NCAA Tournament between 1984 and 1991, haven’t played in the Big Dance since. This squad is one of the top defensive teams in the country. They allow only 64.4 points on 39.1% shooting. Offensively, they are a decent 3-point shooting squad led by Isaiah Crawford (16.5 points/41.1% from three) and Tahlik Chavez (13.8 points/40.8% from three).

Western Kentucky is the highest-scoring squad in the conference, averaging 80.2 points on 46.7% shooting. When the Hilltoppers were a member of the Sun Belt, they were dominant, making the NCAA Tournament 12 times in 28 years. They were consistently in the Top 25 during this period and won several NCAA Tournament games. They enter the tournament on a 4-game losing streak.

Liberty continues to put up solid campaigns. This was their first year in Conference USA after winning 20+ games in seven straight seasons while playing in the Big South/Atlantic Sun. This sharpshooting squad ranks 12th in 3-pointers made (10.2), 18th in attempts (27.7), and 43rd in percentage (36.6%). The Flames won the mid-major laden Mrtyle Beach Invitational, where they defeated Furman, Wichita State, and Vermont. 

New Mexico State was a WAC beast for many years. Their first year in Conference USA didn’t go quite as well, as a recent 2-8 stretch buried them in the league standings. As the #6 seed, they will take on Western Kentucky in the first round, a squad they split with. The Aggies played a strong non-conference slate but didn’t come close to any significant wins.

Bottom Line:

Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech are the two best teams, though Western Kentucky‘s ability to score and Liberty‘s ability to shoot are scary.

Winner: Louisiana Tech doesn’t lose for a third time, defeating Sam Houston in the championship game.

History: Georgetown has fallen on hard times, but they have the most tournament tiles (8). It can be hard to believe that the Hoyas won the title as recently as 2021. Syracuse, long gone from the conference, has reached the title game the most often (15).

Winning the Big East Tournament doesn’t typically equate to NCAA Tournament success. Villanova is the last team to pull off the Big East/NCAA Tournament double when they won both in 2018. Two of the last three champions didn’t make it out of the first weekend (2021 Georgetown lost their first game, while 2023 champion Marquette lost in the second round).

Returning Champion: Marquette. The Golden Eagles won the regular-season and tournament crowns. It was their first Big East Tournament title. As stated above, they lost to Michigan State in a 2-vs-7 game in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

Format:  All 11 schools make the field, with the top five seeds automatically advancing to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  UConn (28-3, 18-2)

The Huskies pulled off one of the most dominant Big East regular seasons you will ever find. Only six of their 18 conference wins were within single digits, and two of those games were 9-point margins. Amongst their 11 Quad 1 wins are non-conference conquests of Texas, North Carolina, and Gonzaga. Every win was by double digits.

The Huskies score (3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency) and defend (13th in adjusted defensive efficiency). Despite their offensive prowess, nobody averages more than 15 points. Pick your poison on who you want to stop and hope the others have cold nights.

Contenders: Creighton (23-8, 14-6), Marquette (23-8, 14-6), Seton Hall (20-11, 13-7), St. John’s (19-12, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  Providence (19-12, 10-10)

Preview:

Can anyone stop UConn? Of course. No team is unstoppable. While I wouldn’t expect miracles, both games against Butler this year were decided by single digits, while Xavier did the same in one of their two matchups. Whoever wins the Butler – Xavier game will play UConn.

Creighton enters the tournament on a 7-1 run, including a win over UConn. The Blue Jays have eight Quad 1 wins and are 15-8 in Quad 1/2. They average 80.8 points with three players averaging over 17 points (Guard Baylor Scheierman averages 18.5 points/8.8 rebounds/4.1 assists). UConn gets a lot of press, and for good reason. However, Creighton is a legitimate Final Four contender.

Marquette played a tough non-conference slate that included wins over Illinois, Kansas, and Texas. In a stacked Maui Jim Invitational, they lost the title game to Purdue by three. The big question for the Golden Eagles is the status of senior guard Tyler Kolek (15.0 points, 7.6 assists). He missed the final two games of the season due to an oblique injury. If he’s healthy, Marquette is the third Final Four threat from the Big East. If not, he is going to be tough to replace.

Seton Hall won at least one game against every team in the Big East other than Creighton. One of their losses to the Blue Jays was a 3-overtime thriller. The top five scorers are all seniors. While Kadary Richmond (16.2 points/6.6 rebounds/4.8 assists) is a legit offensive star, the Pirates rely heavily on their defense. In their win over UConn, they held the high-scoring Huskies to 60 points, one of nine times they held a Big East opponent under 70 (they had three other games where they held opponents to exactly 70). The Pirates didn’t do much in the non-conference, losing to Iowa, USC, Baylor, and Rutgers. Their best win was a neutral-court triumph of Missouri, hardly a major win.

St. John’s enters the tournament on a five-game winning streak that saved their season. While three of those wins were over Georgetown and DePaul, they also defeated Creighton and Butler by double digits. Like Seton Hall, the Red Storm relies heavily on seniors. Four of their top five scorers are seniors. 6’11” forward Joel Soriano is a beast, averaging 14.1 points and 9.4 rebounds. The Seton Hall – St. John’s winner will likely get UConn in the semifinals.

Providence needs a run to receive an at-large bid. If they get past Georgetown, they will face off with Creighton, a team they split with this season. Junior guard Devin Carter averages 19.4 points and 8.6 rebounds. The Friars earned some credibility when they knocked off Wisconsin by 13 in the Gavitt Tipoff Games. It was a home game. They finished the season with a 5-6 mark in their last 11 games, dropping them to borderline bubble status.

Bottom Line:

If UConn is on top of their game, it will be very hard to beat them. However, there are roadblocks. Butler or Xavier can put a scare into them, as can St. John‘s or Seton Hall. For a #1 seed, their road isn’t paved in gold. The Huskies will have to earn it.

Winner: Creighton. Marquette broke through with their first Big East title in 2023. In 2024, Creighton will try to repeat that feat. They are 0-4 all-time in Big East title games, including back-to-back losses in 2021 and 2022.

History: The wacky MAC typically produces a winner that teams don’t wish to see in the NCAA Tournament. Their most recent conquest was in 2021 when Ohio (who has a history of NCAA Tournament upsets) knocked off Virginia in a 13-vs-4 game. The past two years have produced close calls: Akron lost by four to UCLA in 2022 while Kent State lost to Indiana by 11 in 2023.

Three squads are tied for the most tournament titles (Ball State, Ohio, and Kent State have seven titles).  Bowling Green is the only current league member to never win the tournament.

Despite the NCAA Tournament success stories, the MAC consistently receives only one NCAA Tournament bid. That won’t change in 2024.

Returning Champion: Kent State became the 4th different champion in the last four tournaments. As the #2 seed, they topped #1 Toledo by 15 in the championship.

Format:  Only eight of the league’s 12 squads qualify. This year, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Buffalo didn’t make the field. The tournament is straightforward.

Favorite:  Akron (21-10, 13-5)

The Zips are the #2 seed, but I think they are the best team. In the non-conference (where they played one of the toughest schedules), they lost by three to Utah State on a neutral court and two to UNLV on the road. That said, despite installing them as the favorites, it should be noted that they are only 5-5 in their last ten games, including losing their final two games to squads who rank 321st and 285th in the NET.

This is a senior-laden team with one of the best players amongst all mid-majors: Forward Enrique Freeman averages 18.1 points and 12.8 rebounds, the top number in the country. Going back to the 1999-2000 season, he is 6th in defensive rebounds (954).

Can they get back to what they were earlier in the year? If not, there are plenty of others who can take this title.

Contenders: Toledo (20-11, 14-4), Ohio (19-12, 13-5), Central Michigan (18-13, 12-6), Bowling Green (19-12, 10-8)

Live Long Shot:  Kent State (15-16, 8-10)

Preview:

The MAC is a fun league. I make it a point to watch this tournament (especially the championship).

Toledo played in the Big Dawgs Classic, a tournament with solid mid-majors. They went 0-3, but the games were close: New Mexico (8), UC-Irvine (6), and Indiana State (2). In a late-season game against Southland champion Appalachian State, they lost 109-104 in two overtimes. While defense isn’t their game, the Rockets can score (80.7 points; 63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency). They don’t love to shoot three-pointers (336th in attempts per game), but they are accurate when they do so (37.9%; 15th). They are a dangerous squad looking to break a long slump, as they haven’t reached the NCAA Tournament since 1980. This is despite having some good teams. This is their 4th straight 20+ win campaign and sixth in their last seven years.

As stated above, Ohio is a menace whenever they get to the NCAA Tournament. The last three times they have appeared in the Big Dance (2010, 2012, 2021), they have won at least one game (two in 2012). This is a well-balanced squad, with three players averaging between 12.4 – 13.9 points and 4.3 – 4.5 rebounds. There’s nothing “sexy” here and they didn’t challenge themselves much in the non-conference. However, they won six straight games to close the season, including wins over Akron and Bowling Green.

Central Michigan is the only team in the league with a Quad 1 win, as they defeated South Florida on the road (the Bulls lost on Saturday, which could drop that win to Quad 2). If the Chippewas face off with Toledo in the semi-finals, they should have some confidence as they beat the Rockets in their only meeting this season. Their biggest issue is that they are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, so they have to try to win ugly.

Bowling Green is a good story. The Falcons haven’t made it to the NCAA Tournament since 1968. This season was a nice turnaround for a squad that went 11-20 last year. Junior guard Marcus Hill is the star of the show, averaging 20.6 points and five rebounds. He is the definition of a volume scorer, as he launches 17 shots per game (44.5%).

Kent State was one of the preseason favorites, but they barely hung on to make the tournament. They didn’t do much in their two games against Toledo this season, but this is an experienced team that just couldn’t get much going after an early-season two-overtime loss to James Madison.

Bottom Line:

This is going to be fun. I think it is time for Toledo to end their NCAA Tournament drought.

Winner: Toledo

History: North Carolina A&T has 16 conference titles, or 31.4% of all titles combined. However, they have won only once since their 1995 title (2013).

The MEAC traditionally doesn’t do well in the NCAA Tournament, but there are a few notable upsets in its history. In 2012, #15 Norfolk State knocked off #2 Missouri. In 2001, Hampton pulled off the 15-vs-2 upset when they knocked off Iowa State. At the time, they were the 4th #15 seed in history to win an NCAA Tournament game. Who was the third team to do it? Coppin State, who knocked off South Carolina in the opening round. The Eagles were nearly the first #15 seed to make it to the Sweet 16, losing by one to Texas. So, of the 11 all-time #15 seeds who pulled off the 15-vs-2 upset, three of them came from the MEAC.

Returning Champion: Howard. As the #1 seed, they cruised into the championship, defeating Norfolk State by a point. They avoided a “First Four” game but lost to Kansas by 28 in a 16-vs-1 matchup.

Format:  This tournament is as straightforward as it gets. All eight teams make it, and they play a basic tournament format to determine the champion.

Favorite:  Norfolk State (21-10, 11-3)

One of only two teams with an overall winning record, the Spartans own an impressive Quad 2 road win over VCU. Head coach Robert Jones is 209-147 at the helm with five 20+ win seasons (including three in a row). Junior guard Jamarii Thomas is the star of the show, averaging 17.5 points and 3.8 assists.

Contenders: North Carolina Central (17-12, 9-5), South Carolina State (14-17, 9-5), Howard (15-16, 9-5)

Live Long Shot:  Maryland Eastern Shore (9-19, 4-10)

Preview:

The MEAC is a battle-tested league, as many of its members take the cash to go on the road in the non-conference against top-caliber competition. The eight teams combined to play 15 Quad 1 games (0-15).

North Carolina Central won three straight titles between 2017 and 2019. This year, they are a legitimate threat to Norfolk State. Little (5’9″) senior guard Fred Cleveland is their best player, averaging 15.1 points and 5.4 assists. They enter the tournament with four wins in their last five games.

South Carolina State was on a five-game winning streak before losing to North Carolina Central in the season finale. This is a deep squad with 11 players who average between 14.2 and 21.1 minutes. Because of the constant rotating of players, nobody averages more than 8.5 points.

Howard rotates ten players but relies heavily on a trio. Bryce Harris (16.3 points/7.6 rebounds), Seth Towns (14.4 points/6.3 rebounds), and Marcus Dockery (13.5 points) each play 30+ minutes. The Bison lost to Georgia Tech by three and Cincinnati by five (overtime) in the non-conference.

Maryland Eastern Shore is the live longshot because they have a win over Norfolk State, though they wouldn’t get another crack at them unless both squads are in the title game.

Bottom Line:

This conference is not typically won by an under-the-radar team. Most winners are at or near the top of the conference standings. I don’t expect that to change, as the top four teams have drawn away from the rest of the field.

Winner: Howard

History: Unlike other conferences, no one team has dominated this league. The leader in tournament titles is Northeast Louisiana, who won six titles between 1986 and 1996. Now known as Louisiana-Monroe, they left the conference after the 2006 season. Lamar is the active leader in titles, with four (none since 2012). In 2021, little Abilene Christian pulled off a massive upset when they defeated Texas in a 14-vs-3 matchup. They have since moved on to the WAC.

Returning Champion: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won their second straight championship in 2023. They were forced into the First Four, where they defeated Southeast Missouri State before losing to Alabama by 21 in a 16-vs-1 matchup.

Format:  Eight of the ten teams make the field (this year, Houston Christian and Incarnate Word missed the cut). It’s a stepladder format, with the top two seeds automatically advanced to the semifinals. #7 seed Texas A&M-Commerce is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament if they win. They are still in their Division I transition period.

Favorite:  McNeese State (28-3, 17-1)

The Cowboys are 58th in the NET and were on the bubble’s bubble for a large chunk of the season. During the season, they ranked in the Top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They earned three Quad 2 wins, including a road win over VCU in the season opener. Their at-large hopes were dashed by a Quad 4 loss to Southeastern Louisiana.

Their rise to this level is rather amazing. Before this season, they hadn’t accomplished a winning season since 2011-2012. Former LSU coach Will Wade is the catalyst.

Their average margin of victory is an impressive 19 points, as they average 80.2 points (44th) while allowing only 61.2 (4th). They rank 9th in the nation in 3-point shooting at 38.6%/

Contenders: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (21-10, 14-4), Nicholls (18-13, 13-5), Lamar (18-13, 12-6)

Live Long Shot:  Northwestern State (9-22, 7-11)

Preview:

McNeese is dominant. Is there anyone who can challenge them?

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is the #2 seed. They lost both games to McNeese by a combined eight points and finished the season on a 7-game winning streak. They played Texas Tech within nine back in November. The Islanders are in the Top 100 in defensive efficiency and allowed only 66 points per game. This is a team that McNeese wouldn’t want to see in the title game.

Nicholls went 5-1 down the stretch. However, they played McNeese twice in their final seven games, losing by a combined 48 points. They have four players who average double-digits and they are on the opposite side of the bracket, but it is hard to see them winning this tournament.

Lamar played a tough game against Nicholls on 2/26, losing by only two (58-56). They are a pretty good offensive team with plenty of depth (ten players average 10+ minutes). At their best, they can offer Nicholls a tough game. Given that they are on the same side of the bracket, they will need to slay the beast.

Northwestern State went 0-11 in the non-conference and didn’t win a game all season outside of Quadrant 4. However, if they can survive the 6-vs-7 game (not guaranteed), it should be noted that they played Nicholls within single digits twice this year. All but one of their conference wins this year came against squads that ended up losing 20+ games, making them more of a “best of the rest” than a true giant killer.

Bottom Line:

McNeese is the team you want if you want a team that can do a little damage in the NCAA Tournament. They are by far the best team here.

Winner: McNeese.