Category: College Basketball

NCAA Basketball: My Field of 68

A-Sun (1)
Auto:  Lipscomb
Bubble  None

America East (1)
Auto: Bryant
Bubble: None

AAC (1)
Auto: Memphis
Bubble: None

Atlantic-10 (1)
Auto: VCU
Bubble (In): None
Bubble (Out): Dayton, George Mason

Dayton won three Quadrant 1 games and lost to North Carolina by two and Iowa State by five. Win one of those games and we would have a different conversation.
George Mason wasn’t competitive against Marquette or Duke and went 0-2 against VCU. It’s a fun team with a fun player, but the resume doesn’t add up.

ACC (4)
Auto: Duke 
In: Louisville, Clemson
Bubble (In): North Carolina
Bubble (Out): Wake Forest

It pains me to include North Carolina. However, their scrubbed resume shows:
SOR: 38th
NET: 36th
WAB: 43
Non-Conf SOS: 4th
Quad 1: 1-11
Quad 2: 8-0

Their resume is not good. But this bubble is filled with questionable resumes. North Carolina is my final team in the field.

Wake Forest has two Quad 1 wins and two Quad 3 losses. If they completed a sweep of North Carolina, I may have switched them. Their 44th-ranked SOR is there with squads like Arkansas and West Virginia, but their win over Michigan isn’t enough to put them over the top.

Big 12 (8)
Auto: Houston
In: Arizona, Texas Tech, BYU, Iowa State, Kansas
Bubble (In): Baylor, West Virginia
Bubble (Out): None

Baylor is closer to the edge than it should be. They are 19-14 and lost most of their tough in-conference games. Their strong non-conference schedule includes wins over St. John’s and Arkansas, which squeaks them into the field. If that St. John’s game goes the other way, this could be a different discussion.
West Virginia is all over the place, but the final product is enough for inclusion. Wins over Gonzaga and Arizona resonate, and their loss to Louisville was in overtime. Furthermore, they avoided a bad loss.
(FYI: I point out the Arizona win because, while they play in the same conference, the game was played in the Battle 4 Atlantis, which helps their non-conference resume)

Big East (4)
Auto: St. John’s
In: Creighton, UConn, Marquette
Bubble (In): None
Bubble (Out): Xavier

See my analysis under the Big Ten for Xavier.

Big Sky (1)
Auto: Montana
Bubble: None

Big South (1)
Auto: High Point
Bubble: None

Big Ten (9)
Auto: Michigan
In: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Maryland, Purdue, UCLA, Illinois, Oregon
Bubble (In): Indiana
Bubble (Out): Ohio State

Let’s scrub the resumes of Xavier, Indiana, and Ohio State:

Xavier:  SOR: 42; Non-Conf SOS: 79; WAB: 49; KenPom: 43;  NET: 45; Quad 1: 1-9; Bad Losses: 0
Indiana: SOR: 50; Non-Conf SOS: 61; WAB: 48; KenPom: 48; NET: 54; Quad 1: 4-13; Bad Losses: 0
Ohio State: SOR: 56; Non-Conf SOS: 42; WAB: 55; KenPom: 39; NET: 41; Quad 1: 6-11; Bad Losses: 0

Like Texas, Ohio State has 15 losses. Their non-conference schedule, however, is stronger, keeping them in the mix.
Xavier would be a no-brainer with a few more Quad 1 wins.
Indiana blends the two extremes, but they have the worst NET.

I am picking Indiana.

Big West (1)
Auto: UC San Diego
Bubble (In): None
Bubble (Out): UC Irvine

UC Irvine can win an NCAA Tournament game. However, their resume isn’t in the same league as UC San Diego’s, and UC San Diego was a bubble team if they lost the title game.

CAA (1)
Auto: UNC-Wilmington
Bubble: None

Conference USA (1)
Auto: Liberty
Bubble: None

Horizon League (1)
Auto: Robert Morris
Bubble: None

Ivy League (1)
Auto: Yale
Bubble: None

MAAC (1)
Auto: Mount St. Mary’s (16)
Bubble: None

MAC (1)
Auto: Akron
Bubble: None

MEAC (1)
Auto: Norfolk State
Bubble: None

Missouri Valley (1)
Auto: Drake
Bubble: None

Mountain West (4)
Auto: Colorado State
In: New Mexico
Bubble (In): Utah State, San Diego State
Bubble (Out): Boise State

San Diego State:  SOR: 47; Non-Conf SOS: 17; WAB: 44; KenPom: 46; NET: 52
Utah State: SOR: 37; Non-Conf SOS: 73; WAB: 38; KenPom: 51; NET: 37
Boise State: SOR: 55; Non-Conf SOS: 54; WAB: 53; KenPom: 50; NET: 44

In typical fashion, the Mountain West is bunched up with similar resumes. Boise State beat Clemson and St. Mary’s. They lost to Washington State (Quad 3) and Boston College (Quad 4).  San Diego State has one Quad 3 loss, while Utah State has zero bad losses.

It’s razor-thin, and I can see the quintet being selected. However, Boise State’s resume comes up just short of the others – including squads in other conferences.

Northeast (1)
Auto: St. Francis (PA) (16)
Bubble: None

Ohio Valley (1)
Auto: SIU Edwardsville
Bubble: None

Patriot League (1)
Auto: American
Bubble: None

SEC (13)
Auto: Florida
In: Tennessee, Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Missouri, Mississippi State, Georgia
Bubble (In): Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
Bubble (Out): Texas

Texas lost 15 games. Their non-conference schedule was terrible. The two good teams they played (Ohio State and UConn) beat them. I am impressed by their seven Quad 1 wins, though four of them are in the bottom half of Quad 1. Their SOR falls short of Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Arkansas. It’s my tiebreaker.

Southern (1)
Auto: Wofford
Bubble: None

Southland (1)
Auto: McNeese
Bubble: None

SWAC (1)
Auto: Alabama State
Bubble: None

Summit (1)
Auto: Omaha
Bubble: None

Sun Belt (1)
Auto: Troy
Bubble: None

WCC (2)
Auto: Gonzaga
In: St. Mary’s
Bubble (In): None
Bubble (Out): San Francisco

San Francisco has zero bad losses and a Quad 1 win, but it isn’t enough. Their profile would have been interesting if they defeated Gonzaga in the semi-finals.

WAC (1)
Auto: Grand Canyon
Bubble: None

 

 

 

 

College Basketball: A Look at the NCAA Tournament

The race for the #1 seeds

Can Auburn, Duke, or Houston blow a #1 seed this week? Not likely. Duke has done enough to keep their position, though a loss to the Georgia Tech/Virginia winner could drop them. Auburn has 16 Quadrant 1 wins and ranks #1 in Wins Above Bubble, which the committee looks at. Their likely opponent in the quarterfinals will be either Ole Miss or Arkansas. Would losing to either team hurt them? Maybe it could hurt their shot at being the #1 overall, but that’s it. Houston will likely take on TCU or West Virginia. West Virginia is a “giant killer” this year and is 6-10 in Quadrant 1. The problem for other #1 hopefuls? Losing to them is not likely to move the needle much.

This leaves us with Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, and latecomer Michigan State. 

Florida’s weakness is its non-conference schedule. Their best opponent was North Carolina (win, neutral court). The Tar Heels are a bubble team. Beating Alabama and Auburn on the road will carry a lot of weight.

Alabama is second to Auburn in Wins Above Bubble. The Crimson Tide has one of the best non-conference schedules with wins over tournament-bound Illinois, Houston, and Creighton. Like Florida, they beat North Carolina (road, while Florida beat them on a neutral court). Working against them? They played Tennessee and Florida once and lost those games. Their argument becomes clear if they can beat Florida in a potential semi-final matchup.

Tennessee is one spot behind Florida in the KenPom, NET, and Wins Above Bubble. They split a pair of blowouts with the Gators but played a tougher non-conference schedule that includes wins over Louisville (road), Baylor (neutral), and Illinois (road). Their resume will be hard to ignore if they beat Auburn in a potential semi-final matchup.

In other words, good luck to the committee when dissecting those resumes. But what about a 4th possibility? Michigan State is coming on fast and has the second-most Quadrant 1 wins (12). The Spartans rank 7th in Wins Above Bubble. Something that holds them back is big non-conference wins. Like Florida, their biggest conquest is North Carolina on a neutral court. They lost neutral court contests to Kansas and Memphis. Their surge is courtesy of a season-ending 7-game winning streak that includes juicy wins over Michigan (twice), Illinois, Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin. 

It will come down to the SEC Tournament, with Michigan State settling for a #2 seed regardless of the Big Ten Tournament. The margins are thin enough that a slip-up by Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee in the SEC Tournament can make it interesting.

Meanwhile, Duke (playing in the weakest conference among the contenders) will try to protect their #1 seed in the East. A fall to the #4 overall seed could send them out west for the second weekend.

How about St. John’s?

The Big East’s weakness makes a #1 seed unattainable. Can they rise to a #2? Possibly.

I listed three #1 seeds with four teams vying for the fourth spot. It’s been a while since I took high school math, but that leaves one slot for everyone else.

The Red Storm have four Quad 1 wins, far below the other contenders:
Kentucky: 10
Texas A&M: 8
Texas Tech: 8
Iowa State: 7

Their Wins Above Bubble, however, keeps them in the race. While below Texas A&M and Kentucky, they are 10th in this valuable metric with a better chance to win their conference title than their competition.

As long as they don’t fumble the ball against a weak Big East team, their seed won’t matter. They will be a protected Sweet 16 seed that will likely find themselves in Providence for the first two rounds. They would love to feed into Newark for the Sweet 16 and beyond, but bracket rules and seed rankings will determine that.

The final #2 seed will be as intriguing as the last #1 seed. Kentucky and Texas A&M have the juicy SEC Tournament to make their statements. Iowa State is merely the #5 seed in the Big 12, though they defeated Texas Tech on the road in their only matchup.

Rising and Falling

Oregon started 5-8 in the Big Ten. While falling below the cut line for the Big Ten Tournament was improbable, the bleeding needed to stop. It did, as they won their final seven games. Meanwhile, Nebraska started 7-8 in the Big Ten with NCAA Tournament dreams. The Cornhuskers lost their final five games, including an ugly 49-46 game to Michigan and a crazy 116-114 double-overtime loss at Ohio State. Their string of poor play/bad luck knocked them out of the Big Ten Tournament. It was a shocking development for a team with wins over Illinois, Oregon, UCLA, and Creighton. 

Winning the Conference Tournament

How often do we see excuses about a team failing in the NCAA Tournament due to a “grueling” conference tournament?

It’s fiction. Last year, half of the final four (UConn, North Carolina State) won their conference tournaments. Purdue went to the semi-finals in the Big Ten, where they lost a “grueling” overtime game to Wisconsin. Alabama was the only Final Four squad knocked out early in their conference tournament (yes, Auburn won the SEC title and was subsequently bounced by Yale in the first round).

It is possible that conference tournaments impact teams in different ways. However, there is no advantage to losing early or disadvantage to making a run. The goal is to play your best basketball leading into the Big Dance.

What about the bubble?

More people care about the bubble than how the top teams are sorted.  SEC schools (Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma) have the most opportunities to improve their resumes. ACC schools (North Carolina, Wake Forest) have few opportunities to enhance theirs.

Three non-SEC schools that define the 2025 bubble are Baylor, Ohio State, and Xavier. Xavier has a juicy opportunity against Marquette in the 4-vs-5 game. Winning that could create a second opportunity against St. John‘s. The Musketeers control their destiny. Ohio State, meanwhile, is on the bubble despite a #10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament (and people want the NCAA Tournament to expand?). If they can avoid an upset against Iowa, the Buckeyes will get their chance against Illinois. Lose that, and I think they are out. Baylor will play the winner of Kansas State/Arizona State in the second round in the Big 12. They need to win that game to feel somewhat comfortable.

Bubble teams rejoiced on Sunday afternoon when Drake knocked off Bradley in the Missouri Valley title game. While Drake’s at-large hopes were “iffy,” they were in the conversation. Not anymore.

What other mid-major conferences should you pay attention to?

Big West: Not typically your source of an at-large school, UC San Diego is making their case to have their resume scrubbed by the committee. Projected in the 11-13 seed range if they win the Big West Tournament, a loss in the title game to UC Irvine (if they both make it) would place them in an interesting spot. Their biggest issue would be a loss to Seattle (Quad 3) which could offset their road win over Utah State (Quad 1). By the way, if UC San Diego or UC Irvine wins the conference tournament, they will be a dangerous first-round opponent.

Atlantic 10: While a 1-bid outcome is possible, bubble teams do not want to see VCU lose. They are the only squad in the NET Top 50, though the WAB metric isn’t in love (54th). Like UC San Diego, they have a soul-crushing loss (Seton Hall is a Quad 4! Ouch!). Dayton is making a late charge after a non-conference run that included wins over UConn and Marquette and close losses to North Carolina and Iowa State. They have accomplished a lot and a run to the A-10 title game could get them in the conversation.

WCC: This one is simple: If you are a bubble team, Gonzaga or St. Mary’s must win. Working in their favor is that Gonzaga or St. Mary’s always wins. The last time neither won was in 2008 when San Diego cut down the nets. That is crazy. San Francisco is a capable team and Pepperdine is making a miracle run, but I think bubble teams feel comfortable.

Mountain West: This conference will receive multiple bids. Whether it is two or three will be determined. If you are a bubble team, you are rooting for New Mexico, the only definite team. Others (Utah State, San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State) are firmly on the bubble, with Utah State being the safest. I would be hesitant to rule out San Diego State, however. The committee will like that the Aztecs challenged themselves. Furthermore, the neutral court win over Houston is gold. Hence, if I were a bubble team, I would root for New Mexico, accept Utah State or San Diego State, and start sweating hard if it is anyone else.

AAC: Memphis. What more do I need to say? Bubble teams will be watching the AAC Tournament closer than most others. The Tigers are the only team with a Quad 1 win (6). They are 25th in WAB, which will negate their borderline NET. While North Texas is a good team, they are no threat for an at-large.  The problem bubble teams have is that Memphis has played down to the competition. While their non-conference resume is impressive, they lost a home game to Arkansas State. They lost to Temple and Wichita State. They have close calls against East Carolina, Charlotte, Rice, and Texas-San Antonio. What should be a slam dunk tournament win is anything but, and that is scary if you are Xavier, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.

Bubble teams always have to worry about big conference upsets (ie, North Carolina State in 2024). Is there a team out there capable of something similar? You would be looking at teams like Rutgers (path isn’t terrible), Villanova, Pittsburgh (would need to find their early-season form), North Carolina (the talent is there, even if the results aren’t), and Kansas State (five Quadrant 1 wins). I won’t include the SEC in this analysis as the most likely outcome is bubble teams eating other bubble teams. Do I see South Carolina or LSU making a run to the title? No.

Conference Tournament Preview: CAA

History:

The CAA has changed through the years and last won an NCAA Tournament game 13 years ago (VCU).

William & Mary has never received a bid to the NCAA Tournament. They are one of three “original” Division I schools with that distinction (Army, the Citadel). Elon has also never made it to the Big Dance.

Returning Champion:

Charleston has won two in a row. Last year’s squad needed overtime to defeat Stony Brook. In the NCAA Tournament, they went toe-to-toe with super-paced Alabama, losing by a reasonable 109-96 score. In 2023, they lost to San Diego State (who made a run to the title game) by six.

Format:

The CAA has 14 squads, and it invites all of them. The top four squads get byes to the quarterfinals, while seeds 5-10 get byes to the second round.

Contenders:

Towson (21-10, 16-2) is cruising into this tournament, winning 15 of their last 16 games.  The Tigers play a low-tempo game, averaging only 69.5 PPG (they allow 65.9, 33rd in the nation). A team that plays within margins this small is ripe for an upset, but they keep winning.

UNC Wilmington (24-7, 14-4) is the league’s highest-scoring team (79.9 PPG) and ranks 79th in efficiency. The Seahawks feature a balanced attack. Only one player has started every game (Donovan Newby) and 11 players average 10+ minutes. When you average nearly 80 points per game and nobody scores 15, that is balance.

The CAA plays its share of Quadrant 1 games, but only one team has a win. That team is Charleston. It isn’t the most impressive Quad 1 win (St. Joseph’s), but it qualifies. 6’10” senior forward Ante Brzovic averages 18.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 2.9 APG.

Sleeper:

Hampton (16-15, 8-10) didn’t have a good season but their ending is intriguing. Down the stretch, they defeated UNC Wilmington and lost on the road to Drexel by one and Towson by three. As the #10 seed, they must defeat Northeastern to get another shot at Wilmington. They split with Northeastern during the season.

How it should play out:

14 teams. Many of them bunched together. While Monmouth went 12-19, the Hawks are 10-8 in league play. The top seed plays a lot of close games. The only two teams that would shock me if they win this tournament are Stony Brook and North Carolina A&T.

Winner:

I could toss a 14-sided coin and be nearly as accurate as a more data-driven approach. I didn’t feature them, but can this be the year for William & Mary? They are a fun squad that tosses up a bunch of three-point shots (29.9, 8th in the nation).

William & Mary makes their first NCAA Tournament.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: WCC

History:

The West Coast Conference is all about Gonzaga and (to a lesser extent) St. Mary’s. They have won every title since 2009, with Gonzaga winning 12 and St. Mary’s winning four. Additionally, the only other school to participate in the finals during this timeframe is BYU, which made it there four times.

Returning Champion:

St. Mary’s stopped Gonzaga’s latest run at four. They defeated the Bulldogs, 69-60, in the championship game. As a #5 seed, the Gaels were upset by #12 seed Grand Canyon. As a #5 seed, Gonzaga made it to the Sweet 16, where they lost to Purdue. 

Format:

Every team (11) makes the field. This tournament is played stepladder-style, with the #1 and #2 seeds automatically placed in the semi-finals.  Newcomers Oregon State and Washington State add some intrigue to the proceedings.

Contenders:

St. Mary’s (27-4, 14-1) and Gonzaga (23-8, 14-4) are in their familiar “favorite” positions. Both teams are guaranteed spots in the NCAA Tournament. St. Mary’s swept Gonzaga and is on a 7-game winning streak. Their (extremely) slow, defensive style makes them a matchup nightmare for teams who haven’t faced them. They aren’t a very good shooting team, but they make up for that with volume and strong offensive rebounding. Imagine having to play defense for 27 seconds, only for this squad to miss a shot and grab the offensive rebound. That is how they wear you down.

The computers love Gonzaga, but this was not a typical season. The Bulldogs are only 3-6 in Quadrant 1 and their four conference losses are their most since the 1997-1998 season (crazy). That was the last time they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament, though they have no such fears this year. Unlike St. Mary’s, they like to push the tempo and have one of the nation’s best offenses (87.6 PPG). All 14 conference wins are by double digits, so don’t underestimate their power.

Can anyone else contend? San Francisco was on the bubble for a while (I don’t see it now). They are 23-8 and are the only team to defeat St. Mary’s in conference play. As a #3 seed, however, they wouldn’t get another shot at the Gaels unless they make the title game. Santa Clara (20-11, 12-6) has a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, including a road conquest of Gonzaga. They challenged themselves in the non-conference and had decent wins (McNeese on the road and TCU/Bradley on a neutral court).

Sleeper:

There isn’t one in this league. Oregon State is too good to be a “sleeper” (they are in the NET Top 100) and Washington State hasn’t played well recently (though they won two in a row to end the campaign).

Loyola Marymount could make a run to the quarterfinals, where they would play San Francisco, a squad they recently lost to by six. Additionally, they ended their season with a 3-point loss to St. Mary’s.

How it should play out:

It would be shocking if Gonzaga – St. Mary’s isn’t our championship game (again). Gonzaga has lost some focus at times and St. Mary’s style could lead to a shocking 52-51 loss. However, neither outcome seems likely.

Winner:

Can St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga three times?  Yes. But I think Gonzaga takes the championship.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Missouri Valley

History:

Once a multi-bid league, the Missouri Valley has become a 1-bid conference in recent years. In 2024, an argument was made for Indiana State to earn an at-large, but they were amongst the first four teams excluded. The last time they received an at-large bid was Drake in 2021.

Drake has won back-to-back championships and has made the finals four straight years.

Former member Loyola Chicago is the last team to win an NCAA Tournament game (Sweet 16 in 2021). Their run to the Final Four in 2018 is forever legendary.

Returning Champion:

Drake squeaked past Indiana State by four in the championship. The Bulldogs played in a 7-vs-10 game, which they lost to Washington State by five.

Format:

Every team (12) makes the field, with the top four seeds earning byes to the second round.

Contenders:

Drake (27-3, 17-3) was supposed to have a down year this year, given a new coach and the transfer of most of their roster. Star player Tucker DeVries took his talents to West Virginia. Ranked 60th in the NET, the Bulldogs won the Charleston Classic, defeating Vanderbilt in the title game. Unfortunately, that was their only Quad 1 game (their road conquest of Kansas State is Quad 2) and they own three Quad 3 losses, which hampers their shot at an at-large bid. One fun feature of this squad is they are last in the country in adjusted tempo, which can throw impatient opponents off their game. They are 61st in defensive efficiency and allow a paltry 59.2 PPG (3rd in the nation).

Bradley (24-7, 15-5) shouldn’t be taken lightly. The Braves own a Quad 1 win (Drake on the road) and knocked out San Francisco in a home Quad 2 game. Like Drake, Bradley doesn’t like to play fast, though they average a decent 78.2 PPG. Their 41% success rate from 3-point range leads the nation, making them dangerous to everyone in their path.

The third team in the NET Top 100 is Northern Iowa (20-11, 14-6). Decent offensively and defensively, the Panthers try to beat you with their frontcourt, where 6’6″ forward Tytan Anderson (15.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and 6’10” center Jacob Hutson (11.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG) reside.

Belmont goes against the grain of the top three, as they play an uptempo style that has allowed them to score 80.4 PPG. The Bruins love to heave 3-point attempts (27.7 per game) and are successful in converting them (9th best rate in the nation). Their uptempo style leaves them vulnerable on defense. When they faced Drake this season, the Bulldogs forced their style on Belmont, winning 65-46.

Sleeper:

Illinois – Chicago (17-13, 10-10) in dangerous as a #6 seed. The Flames won four Quadrant 2 games (Bradley, Drake, Yale, Illinois State) and played Northwestern within nine in a Quad 1 contest.

How it should play out:

The Missouri Valley Tournament is an anticipated event every year. Nicknamed “Arch Madness,” bracket mavens across the country await their NCAA Tournament pairing. This year, Drake and Bradley look good for a championship run, though Belmont’s different style could cause problems.

Winner:

Drake wins their third straight conference title.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Summit League

History:

South Dakota State (7), North Dakota State (4), and Oral Roberts (2) are the only winners of this tournament from 2012 – 2024.

Oral Roberts was the talk of the town in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The Golden Eagles, as a #15 seed, knocked off Ohio State and Florida on their way to the Sweet 16. In the Sweet 16, they lost to Arkansas by two, missing a 3-pointer at the buzzer. In 2014, in a 12-vs-5 matchup, North Dakota State defeated Oklahoma in overtime.

In other words, while winning in the NCAA Tournament is uncommon, don’t underestimate the team that emerges.

Returning Champion:

South Dakota State defeated upstart Denver (7 seed) to win another title. They lost to Iowa State in a 15-vs-2 matchup.

Format:

All nine squads make the field, with #8 playing #9 in the first round. Saint Thomas, one of the league’s top squads, is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament as their transition from Division III continues.

Contenders:

Omaha (19-12, 13-3) will attempt to add some uniqueness to the wall of champions. However, despite being the top seed, they are only the fourth-best team according to the NET. They trail Saint Thomas (22-9, 12-4), South Dakota State (20-11, 11-5), and North Dakota State (21-10, 10-6).  The team “in the middle” is South Dakota (18-13, 9-7).

North Dakota State is strong offensively, ranking 52nd in efficiency (KenPom). They average 81 points per game and feature two top scorers (Jackson Moni (20.6 PPG) and Jacari White (17.1)). The Bison shoot a lot of 3-pointers (30.1) and hit on an impressive 39.6% (4th in the nation).

Omaha is a vulnerable #1 seed. They don’t have a top attribute, though they can hit 3-pointers (36.7%). This squad of juniors and seniors is looking for its first NCAA Tournament bid. Before this season, they hadn’t won more than half of their conference games since 2012-2013.

For St. Thomas to win, their offense has to be shooting on all cylinders. Ranked 64th in efficiency and 14th in PPG, the Tommies can light it up from 3-point range (a trend in this league) and shoot 49.4% overall (7th in the nation). Defensively? The less said about that, the better.

South Dakota State defeated McNeese in a battle of top mid-major schools earlier this season. Additionally, they lost to Boise State by one in a Quad 1 contest. The league’s most dominant squad over the last several years isn’t quite up to previous standards, but they are dangerous.

Like Omaha, South Dakota has yet to make the NCAA Tournament. The Coyotes play one of the fastest tempos in the country (3rd), scoring a crazy 85.5 PPG. Despite their pace, they aren’t efficient and rely on volume to score. Defensively, they allow 83.2 PPG. In other words, expect a track meet when they are on the other side of the court.

Sleeper:

North Dakota (11-20, 5-11) is the best I can come up with. The Summit League is a league of haves and have-nots. The top five teams won 18 – 22 games, while the bottom four squads lost 19 – 22.

How it should play out:

If you like scoring, this is your league. Three teams average 80+ points per game (a 4th averages 79.9). Only Kansas City (67.5) gives up less than 70 PPG. If a top team gets to the NCAA Tournament, they should earn a seed that gives them an outside shot at a win.

St. Thomas winning this tournament would be a feat, though if that happens, the loser would go to the NCAA Tournament.

Winner:

St. Thomas. I think they are the best team, though it should be a fun ride.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Northeast Conference

History:

The Northeast Conference and #16 seeds go hand-in-hand. That isn’t always bad, as Fairleigh Dickinson pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history when they knocked off #1 Purdue in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. My favorite fun fact from that season is that FDU didn’t even win the conference tournament. That honor went to Merrimack, who was ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

In 2010, Robert Morris took Villanova to overtime in a 15-vs-2 matchup. The Colonials have the most league titles (9) but are no longer members.

Returning Champion:

Wagner pulled off the upset as a #6 seed, knocking off the #3, #2, and #1 seeds to take it home. They defeated Howard in a battle of #16 seeds but couldn’t replicate what FDU pulled off. They lost to North Carolina, 90-62.

Format:

Eight of the nine league members make the field. Mercyhurst (9-7) is ineligible for the conference tournament as they transition from Division II. However, Le Moyne (9-22, 4-12) and Stonehill (15-16, 7-9) are eligible despite not being eligible for the NCAA Tournament. The reason? The NEC has a new rule where you must be in your third year of transitioning to make the field. Le Moyne and Stonehill were “grandfathered” in under the old rules.

Teams are re-seeded after the first round.

Contenders:

Central Connecticut dominated regular-season play, going 14-2. In the non-conference, they pulled off a Quad 2 win over Saint Joseph’s and lost to Providence by four. Providence isn’t great, but a NEC team getting that close to a Big East squad is noteworthy. The Blue Devils are a Top 100 defense in the NET and enter this tournament on a 12-game winning streak, the top current streak in the nation. Additionally, they are the only squad in the conference with a winning record against Division I opponents (Long Island is 16-15, but two of those wins are outside Division I).

Speaking of Long Island, they enter the tournament on a 6-game winning streak  Like Central Connecticut, they play decent defense. However, their offense is one of the worst in the country. The Sharks are one of the two teams that beat Central Connecticut in conference play (Wagner was the other).

Sleeper:

Can Wagner rise from the #6 seed to win the tournament again? In the NEC, anything can (and does) happen. I don’t see lightning striking again, but the win over Central Connecticut should give them confidence.

How it should play out:

Let’s be realistic: Only one team is in the NET 200 (Central Connecticut is 157th). Only one other team is in the NET 300 (Long Island is 276th). Everyone else is battling it out with the worst teams in the country. It’s hard to see any team avoiding a #16 seed, but maybe Central Connecticut can avoid a “First Four” contest.

Winner:

Central Connecticut deserves it.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Ohio Valley

History:

The days of Murray State (18 titles) battling it out with Belmont (3) are long gone. The only current squad with more than two championships is Morehead State, a 6-time winner with an NCAA Tournament upset over Louisville in 2011.

While this conference has produced plenty of good teams, this year’s edition doesn’t have a dominant team that would avoid a #16 seed.

Returning Champion:

Morehead State, as a #3 seed in a bunched-up conference, won their second title in three years. As a 14-seed, they played fairly well in a 85-69 loss to Illinois.

Format:

Eight of the 11 teams make the field. Eastern Illinois, Western Illinois, and Southern Indiana missed the cut. This is a stepladder tournament, where the #1 and #2 seeds automatically advance to the semi-finals.

Two teams haven’t completed their probationary period and are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. One is Southern Indiana (missed the field). The other is Lindenwood, who will enter the tournament as the #6 seed.

Contenders:

The top two seeds have a huge advantage in this format, so Southeast Missouri State (20-11, 15-5) and SIU Edwardsville (20-11, 13-7) are heavy favorites. Southeast Missouri State was on a 10-game winning streak before losing their season finale to one of the worst teams in Division 1 (Eastern Illinois). Edwardsville, which has never made the NCAA Tournament field, has risen slowly since it transitioned from Division II.  This is their first 20+ win season, and they lost 21 games in 2021-2022.

Southeast Missouri State is a defensive squad that prevents 3-pointers (28.5%; 6th in the nation). Edwardsville also leans defense, though they have a premiere scorer (Ray’Sean Taylor averages 19.2 PPG, best in the conference).  Defensively, they are good at defending 2-point shots (44.9%; 8th in the nation).

It’s hard to find another contender, though Tennessee State took Colorado State to overtime in the non-conference (Quadrant 1). However, they were swept by Edwardsville (their potential semi-final opponent).

Sleeper:

Nothing indicates Morehead State can win this title, but they have won two of the last three and should be taken seriously.

How it should play out:

I would be surprised if it isn’t a #1 vs. #2 game for the title. While the NET hates the conference and paints a picture of parity, Southeast Missouri State and Edwardsville stand out. Little Rock (18-13, 12-8) and Tennessee State (16-15, 12-8; 7-3 in their last ten) can be disruptive.

Winner:

Why not give SIU-Edwardsville their first taste of the NCAA Tournament?

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Big South

History:

Winthrop has won 33% of the Big South’s conference championships (13 of 39). The Eagles are also the last team to win an NCAA Tournament game (2007, when they defeated Notre Dame in an 11-vs-6 game). Traditionally, this isn’t a conference you look to for an NCAA Tournament upset, though their 2025 NET conference ranking (18th) isn’t so bad.

Returning Champion:

Longwood won its second title in three years. Despite finishing 6-10 in conference play, the #5 seed knocked off top-seeded High Point in the semi-finals before destroying #2 seed UNC-Asheville in the championship.

Format:

All nine teams make the field. The first round is an 8-vs-9 game. After that, the tournament plays out normally.

Contenders:

One team can avoid a bad NCAA Tournament seed, and that squad is High Point. Ranked in the Top 100 in the NET, the Panthers have won 11 straight. Furthermore, while they didn’t play a Quad 1 game, they own a decent Quad 2 victory over North Texas. They went 2-0 against the AAC, also knocking off UAB. It is an offense you don’t want to mess with, as they are ranked 26th in offensive efficiency and 20th in PPG (82.4). If they have a lead late, they are amongst the best free-throw shooting squads (76.7%). The issue? Their defense. While it doesn’t look so bad on the surface (68.8 PPG), the KenPom ranks them 225th.

One of the teams High Point lost to in conference play is UNC-Asheville, who will enter this tournament as the #2 seed. Like High Point, the Bulldogs like to score (82.5 PPG) with bad defense. Not to be outdone, Winthrop is one of the nation’s highest-scoring squads (85.0). Their top four scorers are seniors, and they ended the season with a 103-90 triumph over UNC-Asheville.

Sleeper:

Presbyterian enters the tournament on a three-game winning streak, including road wins over Radford (19-12, 9-7) and UNC-Asheville.

How it should play out:

High Point entered the 2024 tournament as the favorite and lost. They have yet to make it to the NCAA Tournament. While it shouldn’t be a cakewalk (it never is), their team is far better than the rest of the league.

Winner:

Expect High Point to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance, where they will likely receive a “chance to win” seed.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Sun Belt

History:

The storied Sun Belt had at-large credentials in the past but hasn’t sent multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament since 2013. The conference has many transformations over the years and six current squads have won the tournament.

Last season, James Madison became the first squad since Little Rock in 2016 to win an NCAA Tournament game.

Returning Champion:

James Madison was special last season, compiling a 32-4 record and being ranked in the AP poll eight times. Interestingly, despite their big year, the Dukes were the #2 seed in the conference tournament behind Appalachian State, a squad that handed them two of their four losses. In the NCAA Tournament, they upset Wisconsin in a 12-vs-5 upset before losing to Duke. 

Format:

All 14 squads make this unique “step ladder” tournament, where the top two seeds automatically advance to the semi-finals. That is important this season, as I will outline below.

Contenders:

Wow. Four teams went 13-5 while a fifth (Marshall) went 12-6. Various tiebreakers were needed to create the bracket, with South Alabama and James Madison earning the coveted #1 and #2 seeds. The tiebreaker losers (Troy and Arkansas State) will automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Arkansas State is in the NET Top 100. The Red Wolves own a massive win at Memphis and played Alabama within nine on the road. Additionally, they defeated Mid-American champion Akron and AAC 3rd place squad UAB. They are a slow-tempo squad with a solid team defense.

Despite those credentials, they are the #4 seed, as they went 1-4 against South Alabama/James Madison/Troy.

Like Arkansas State, South Alabama plays a slow style (352nd in tempo!) and strong defense (99th). They allow only 64.3 points per game.

James Madison isn’t the same team this year. They couldn’t win a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game (0-4) and their lone matchup against South Alabama was a disaster (77-49 loss). However, we must respect them as they only need two wins to cut down the nets.

Fitting the theme, Troy is also slow-paced and defensive. They held Houston to 62 points (but scored only 42) and Arkansas to 65 (only scored 49). They went 5-1 in February, including an impressive win at Arkansas State.

Sleeper:

Texas State plays a different style, averaging 76.7 points. Late in the season, they played three overtime games against South Alabama (split) and James Madison (win).

How it should play out:

This is a fun tournament with the format I prefer. Allowing your best teams to go straight to the semifinals won’t tire them out heading into a potential NCAA Tournament game, and it rewards great regular-season play.

Arkansas State stands out, though it isn’t a slam dunk. If there aren’t any upsets, they will play Marshall in a tough quarterfinal matchup. Marshall won their only meeting this season.

Winner:

This is a bunched-up league that could avoid a dreaded #16 seed. Picking a name out of a hat, I will take Troy. James Madison isn’t a scary #2 seed, and they are on Troy’s side of the bracket.