Category: College Basketball

My final field of 68 is below. Teams in bold and italics are the bubble squads.

If you don’t want to go through all of it, here is my bubble:
In: Dayton, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Texas A&M, TCU, Seton Hall
Out: St. John’s, Oklahoma, Virginia, Indiana State

This is not an easy bubble to sort through. You can find points and counterpoints for every team above. Seton Hall has a high NET. The Pirates also beat UConn and Marquette, went 2-1 against St. John’s, and played a 3-OT game against Creighton that had its share of controversy.
So, what works against them?  They didn’t play well in the non-conference. So, how do you weigh neutral court losses to Iowa and USC against going 13-7 in the Big East? Like every team, they could only play DePaul and Georgetown twice. Their other nine wins are quality.

Meanwhile, St. John’s has a better NET and a non-conference win over Utah. However, when it came to playing UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, they went 1-5 on top of their 1-2 mark against Seton Hall.  This is a case where Seton Hall, by a whisker, outshines St. John’s despite the Red Storm’s better NET.

Oklahoma and TCU required a similar scrub. Neither team played a strong non-conference slate. TCU has an extra Quad 1 win, a slightly better NET, and nine neutral/road wins (Oklahoma has six). Both teams could be in, but Oklahoma’s resume is not quite there.

Indiana State, in many years, would get heavy consideration. I don’t see them surviving all the weekend chaos. Dayton and Florida Atlantic? Let’s say that Florida Atlantic should thank the basketball gods for that win over Arizona. However, the Owls also defeated Texas A&M, a team that improved their resume late.

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Full field:

Atlantic Sun (1):
Auto: Stetson

America East (1):
Auto: Vermont

AAC (2):
Auto: UAB
In: Florida Atlantic
Out: South Florida

A-10 (2):
Auto: Duquesne
In: Dayton 

Atlantic Coast (4):
Auto: North Carolina State
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Out: Virginia, Wake Forest, Pitt

Big 12 (8)
Auto: Iowa State
In; Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas, Texas, TCU 
Out: Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Kansas State

Big East (4)
Auto: UConn
In: Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall
Out: St. John’s, Providence, Villanova, Butler

Big Sky (1)
Auto: Montana State

Big South (1)
Auto: Longwood

Big Ten (6)
Auto: Illinois
In: Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State
Out: Iowa, Ohio State

Big West (1)
Auto: Long Beach State

CAA (1)
Auto: Charleston

Conference USA (1)
Auto: Western Kentucky

Horizon (1)
Auto: Oakland

Ivy League (1)
Auto: Yale
Out: Princeton

Metro (1)
Auto: St. Peter’s

Mid-American (1)
Auto: Akron

MEAC (1)
Auto: Howard

Missouri Valley (1)
Auto: Drake
Out: Indiana State

Mountain West (6)
Auto: New Mexico
In: San Diego State, Nevada, Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State

Northeast (1)
Auto: Wagner

Ohio Valley (1)
Auto: Morehead State

Pac-12 (4)
Auto: Oregon
In: Arizona, Washington State, Colorado
Out: Utah

Patriot (1)
Auto: Colgate

SEC (8)
Auto: Auburn
In: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M 

Southern (1)
Auto: Samford

Southland (1)
Auto: McNeese

SWAC (1)
Auto: Grambling

Summit (1)
Auto: South Dakota State

Sun Belt (1)
Auto: James Madison

West Coast (2)
Auto: Saint Mary’s
In: Gonzaga

WAC (1)
Auto: Grand Canyon

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#1 seeds (in order):
UConn, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina

North Carolina over Arizona because:
– Nine Quad 1 wins (Arizona has eight)
– Zero Quad 3/4 losses (Arizona has one)

Arizona’s counterpoint:
– Better NET (4th vs. 7th)
– Better KenPom (6th vs. 9th)
– Better non-conference schedule

Arizona gets neutralized because one of their most impressive non-conference wins (road against Duke) is counteracted by North Carolina going 2-0 against Duke.

North Carolina over Iowa State because:
– The non-conference schedule ranking is absurd. No matter which computer you use, North Carolina’s non-conference schedule is approximately 300 places better than Iowa State’s. It’s a testament to how well Iowa State played in the Big 12 (plus winning the tournament) that they are even in a #1 seed conversation.

Iowa State’s counterpoint:
– 16 Quad 1 games (10-6). North Carolina had 12 (9-3)
– Won the Big 12 conference tournament. The Big 12 has widely been considered the best conference in basketball.
– Their two wins over Houston were of higher difficulty than North Carolina’s two wins over Duke.

The NET and KenPom rankings are close, with North Carolina a hair better in the NET and Iowa State a few hairs better in the KenPom.

This all comes down to whether the committee values a tougher non-conference schedule vs. the team that won the toughest conference.

I am going with the former.

 

 

 

History: Until 2017, the Ivy League awarded their automatic bid to the regular-season champions. In the five tournaments played starting in 2017 (remember, the 2020 and 2021 tournaments were canceled), Princeton and Yale have won two apiece. The other title went to Penn. Three champions entered the tournament as the #2 seed, while two entered as the #1 seed.

While the Ivy League has some history in the NCAA Tournament, last year’s Princeton squad was the first to win an NCAA Tournament game in the Ivy League Tournament Era. Cornell has never won the tournament, but their 2010 regular-season title catapulted them to the Sweet 16 as a #12 seed.

Returning Champion: Princeton

Losing the tie-breaker to Yale, the Tigers entered the tournament as the #2 seed. They defeated the Bulldogs by nine before pulling off a major NCAA Tournament upset, defeating Arizona in the 15-vs-2 game.

Format:  Four of the eight teams make the compressed field. With Brown earning the #4 seed this year, only two teams have never qualified: Dartmouth (at least they can unionize), and Columbia.

Favorite:  Princeton (24-3, 12-2)

The Tigers were in the early bubble discussion, but a pair of in-conference road losses shattered those dreams. However, their #48 NET ranking is better than South Carolina, Northwestern, Virginia, Utah, Ohio State, and Seton Hall. The KenPom ranks them 56th, and they have the 28th most efficient offense in the nation.

They didn’t play any Quad 1 games, though they did defeat Rutgers on a neutral court and Hofstra/Duquesne on the road. You may laugh at those two wins, but they are in Quad 2, while the Rutgers win sits in Quad 3. Two sophomores lead the way, as guard Xaivian Lee averages 17.7 points/5.9 rebounds/3.7 assists while forward Caden Pierce averages 16.3/9.3/3.2. They commit only 8.1 turnovers (362nd) and try to kill you with volume 3-point shooting (their 10.5 makes per game rank 9th).

If they are in the lead late, fouling them is nearly fruitless as they shoot 81.3% from the line, the second-best number in the nation.

Contenders: Cornell (22-6, 11-3), Yale (20-9, 11-3), Brown (12-17, 8-6)

Live Long Shot:  None, as only four teams make it.

Preview:

As dominant as Princeton may appear, Cornell and Yale each came within a game of matching them. The three top teams all split with each other. The tie-breaker for the #2 seed came down to computer rankings. Does it matter? No, as the tournament is played on a neutral court (Columbia). The tiebreaker is all about which team gets to wear their home uniforms.

Cornell played Syracuse within 11 on the road and defeated Patriot League juggernaut Colgate by 13 at home. Their win over Princeton (83-68) easily outshines their loss (79-77). While Princeton is as efficient as any team in the country, Cornell piles up the points (83.0; 16th). The Big Red has an incredible 62.7% rate from 2-point range, the top number in the nation. While only two players average double-digits, six players average 8.8+ points. Instead of a star, they are a collection of solid players. You can see why they are tough to beat.

Yale was pesky in the non-conference. One may not brag about a pair of 15-point losses, but they came on the road against Gonzaga and Kansas. The 2-vs-3 game against Cornell promises to be good, as they defeated Cornell by two and lost to them by three. Five players average between 10.0 and 14.4 points. 7’0″ sophomore forward Danny Wolf averages 14.4 points/9.7 rebounds. Additionally, the big guy shoots 35.7% from three.

Brown is the misfit in the field, but don’t tell them that. Percentage-wise, they have the third-worst record in the conference, but they cruised to the #4 seed by three games over Harvard.  They finished the regular season on a 6-game winning streak. They defeated Cornell and Yale on the road during the streak. Yes, one of the reasons why Cornell and Yale couldn’t keep up with Princeton was because they lost to Brown.  Kino Lilly is an Ivy League scoring machine, averaging 18.4 points. He relies on volume, as he shoots 38.6% from the field.

Bottom Line:

Brown is hot but didn’t fare well against their first-round opponent (Princeton). The hard way to choose the winner would be to “guess” who wins the Cornell-Yale game and pick them to dethrone Princeton.

Winner: Why not be daring? I pick Cornell to defeat Yale and Princeton to take the title.

History: The history is strong but will never be the same and is likely dead after this season. Only two teams (Washington State and Oregon State) were left behind during a mass exodus. Both schools will be affiliate members of the WCC next season, adding extra competition for St. Mary’s and Gonzaga.

The Pac-12 ran four tournaments between 1987 and 1990 but didn’t return to a tournament format until 2002.  Arizona has the most titles (9) while four schools have never cut down the nets (Utah, Arizona State, Washington State, and California). No team has won the Pac-12 and NCAA tournaments in the same season.

Returning Champion: Arizona

In a mostly chalk tournament, the #2 Wildcats took down #1 UCLA, 61-59, in the championship. Looking like a potential Final Four contender, they tumbled against Princeton in a 15-vs-2 game. I cringe when people mention that being the #1 or #2 seed out West doesn’t matter. The way #15 seeds have routinely won in recent years should tell us that it does matter.

Format:  All 12 teams make the field, with teams seeded 1-4 automatically placed into the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Arizona (24-7, 15-5)

In a battle for the top seed out west with Tennessee and (maybe) North Carolina, the Wildcats’ biggest failure was losing five games in a not-so-deep power conference. Outside the conference, they showed their worth by beating Duke (road), Michigan State (neutral), Alabama (neutral), and Wisconsin (home).

Their top-flight offense (#8 in efficiency and #3 in scoring (89.5)) is what drives them. They shoot 49.2% from the field (14th) and 37.4% from three (23rd). They distribute and rebound well, ranking first in assists and second in rebounding. 7’0″ center Oumar Ballo averages a double-double (13.1 points/10.0 rebounds) while senior guard Caleb Love averages 18.7 points. Their combination of experience and explosiveness makes me wonder why they aren’t better. Not that a potential #1 seed is “bad,” but a team with this talent level shouldn’t lose five Pac-12 games.

Contenders: Washington State (23-8, 14-6), Colorado (22-9, 13-7), Oregon (20-11, 12-8)

Live Long Shot:  USC (14-17, 8-12)

Preview:

Washington State had a chance to shock the college basketball world. The Cougars swept Arizona (shocking in its own right) and seemed poised to take the regular-season title. However, weird losses to California, Arizona State, and Washington (home) derailed their plan. This is still a success story, however. They are ranked 45th in the KenPom, with an offense that ranks 53rd and a 29th-ranked defense. Four players average double-digits, including freshman Myles Rice (15.3) and senior forward Isaac Jones (15.4). They won six Quadrant 1 games, including a neutral-court win over Boise State. It’s not a “National Champions” profile, but a sneaky run to the Elite Eight seems possible.

Colorado needed to get hot to keep their at-large chances alive, and they did just that. The Buffaloes finished 6-0, including wins against fellow bubblers Utah and Oregon (road). Junior guard KJ Simpson is a handful, averaging 19.6 points/5.5 rebounds/4.9 assists. He shoots at a 45.1% clip from three-point range. In his first two years, he shot 25.4% and 27.6%. If they want to feel safe in their at-large quest, they cannot afford to lose to the winner of the Utah-Arizona State game.

Oregon is on the list because they received a bye. It is hard to envision the #4 seed getting past Arizona in a potential semi-final matchup, especially since Oregon‘s play hasn’t been inspiring. After starting 5-0 in conference play, they have been unable to get into a consistent groove.

USC has talent to burn, including top freshman Isaiah Collier (16.6 points/4.2 assists), who missed a chunk of time from mid-January into February. Bronny James, the son of Lebron, didn’t come out firing in his freshman year, averaging 4.8 points/2.8 rebounds/2.3 assists as mainly a bench piece. The Trojans ended the season on a 5-2 run, including wins over Utah and Arizona. The losses were to Colorado (double overtime) and Washington State (by three on the road). Usually, I discount highly talented teams that didn’t win, but the Pac-12 isn’t exceptionally strong, opening up a potential path. If they get past Washington (no easy feat) in the 8-9 game, a return date with Arizona commences.

Bottom Line:

I badly want to pick USC. I should do it since nobody would remember the silliness a week from now. Can they piece everything together for four more games and steal an NCAA Tournament bid? Or will they flame out against a good Washington team that has its sights set on making a run?

Winner: I’m not that big of a risk taker, but I open up the possibility that Arizona could be upset early in this tournament.  Washington State is my pick.

History: The AAC is in constant churn. In the first year of the league (2013-2014), UConn gave the league instant credibility, using a second-place finish in the conference tournament to catapult them to winning the NCAA Tournament. UConn has since left for the Big East, while Louisville (who won the inaugural tournament – later vacated) is now in the ACC.

Raiding by bigger conferences has hit the AAC hard, as Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati bolted for the Big 12, while SMU is on its way to the ACC starting next season.

That said, what is leftover is still a good basketball league – albeit, not one that will ever be in the upper tier anymore.

Returning Champion: Memphis

The Tigers stood up to the 10,000-pound gorilla, beating heavily favored Houston in the title game. In their other two games, Houston allowed only 94 points. Memphis scored 75 in the championship.

That didn’t get them far, as they lost to Florida Atlantic in an 8-vs-9 heartbreaker in the first round. We all know what Florida Atlantic did from there.

Format:  All 14 squads make the field, with teams seeded 1-4 automatically advancing to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Florida Atlantic (24-7, 14-4)

The Owls made a strong impression in their first year. They earned quality wins when they swept through the ESPN Invitational (Butler, Texas A&M, and Virginia Tech). However, their biggest win was a monster, as they defeated Arizona in double overtime on a neutral court. A few weird losses (Bryant, Florida-Gulf Coast) suppressed their NET. Both losses are in Quadrant 4. I think they are safely in the NCAA Tournament. They just made it harder on themselves.

Four juniors lead the way, with 6’4″ guard Johnell Davis (18.2 points/6.3 rebounds/3.1 assists) and 7’1″ forward Vladislav Goldin (15.2 points/6.8 rebounds/1.6 blocks) playing a solid two-man game.  Their offense ranks 14th in efficiency and 15th in points (83.0). Defense can be their downfall at times.

Contenders: South Florida (23-6, 16-2), Charlotte (19-11, 13-5), UAB (20-11, 12-6), Memphis (22-9, 11-7), SMU (20-11, 11-7)

Live Long Shot:  North Texas (17-13, 10-8)

Preview:

While Florida Atlantic is the best team, South Florida was the surprise conference champion. While their overall resume doesn’t scream “at-large,” the Bulls used a 15-game winning streak (which included wins over every contender listed above) to take down the title. They are a solid defensive team that allows 68.6 points and 30.9% shooting from three-point range (31st lowest). While their one Quad 1 win and three Quad 3/4 losses will keep them out of the Big Dance at-large discussion, they are dangerous enough to earn their way there.

Charlotte and UAB are lumped together. I didn’t list them initially as contenders, but how can I leave out two teams who are a win away from being in the semifinals? That’s the advantage of earning the #3 and #4 seeds. Charlotte has a win over Florida Atlantic, the team they could face in that semifinal. That win was the start of an 8-game winning streak. However, they slumped to a 5-4 finish. The 49ers rank 356th in adjusted tempo, averaging only 69.2 points (they allow 65.9).  There are many ways to win – Charlotte chooses the “limit possessions” method. UAB has six Quadrant 2 wins, including an overtime conquest of Florida Atlantic. The Blazers are 77th in offensive efficiency, averaging 77.3 points. 6’9″ junior forward Yaxel Lendeborg averages a double-double (13.7 points/10.4 rebounds) while junior guard Eric Gaines dishes out 5.4 assists. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, but at least they know their limitations as they don’t attempt many of them.

Memphis looks like an NCAA Tournament team, but their profile says differently. Their non-conference wins over Michigan and Arkansas in the Battle 4 Atlantis lost their luster when those schools died on the vine. During a 4-game stretch in the non-conference, the Tigers defeated VCU (road), Texas A&M (road), Clemson, and Virginia. However, they own three Quad 3/4 losses and a middling NET (69). There are stars on this high-scoring (81.0) squad, starting with junior forward David Jones (21.7 points/7.6 rebounds). They like to wear down teams by playing a high-tempo style that can get them into trouble. Bottom line? They are reckless, which makes them scary.

SMU couldn’t get over the Quad 1 hump (0-4). Until a 1-4 finish that included a bad loss to UTSA, the Mustangs were still on the fringes of the bubble discussion. Now? They need to win this tournament. As the #6 seed, they will take on the Temple-UTSA winner for a shot at Charlotte. They defeated Charlotte by 12 in their only meeting. They are a top 50 team in defensive efficiency, allowing 67.6 points. Shooting isn’t their forte, but volume is. Thanks to being the 4th best offensive-rebounding team in the nation, they put up 63.5 attempts (19th).

North Texas is a copout pick for the long shot. The Mean Green played St. John’s within a point and Boise State within five during non-conference play. Their NET is decent, and their low-tempo, defensive style can give anyone fits. They play for the three (37.5%), and if they get hot, watch out. They are not a team you want to fall behind against.

Bottom Line:

Florida Atlantic is the best team. However, they are a team that feels vulnerable. The way this league gets multiple bids is with a Florida Atlantic loss. I am going to pick for that to happen.

Winner: Memphis

History: The league that produced UNLV‘s dominant squads from 1989-1991 is now a collection of California schools + Hawaii.

UNLV leads the way with seven conference titles. Amongst current schools, Long Beach State and UC Santa Barbara have the most titles (5). Their last NCAA Tournament win was in 2019 when UC Irvine defeated Kansas State in a 13-vs-4 matchup. In 2016, Hawaii conquered a 13-vs-4 matchup when they knocked off California.

Returning Champion: UC Santa Barbara

The #2 seeded Gauchos defeated #4 Cal State Fullerton, 72-62, to take the championship. In the NCAA Tournament, as a #14 seed, they lost to Baylor by 18.

Format:  Eight of the 11 schools make it. Cal State Fullerton (14-18, 7-13) and Cal Poly (4-28, 0-20) missed the cut. UC San Diego is in their Division I transition period and is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. While many conferences allow ineligible NCAA Tournament teams to play in the conference tournament, that isn’t the case here. Despite their 15-5 conference mark (which would have been good enough for the #2 seed), UC San Diego won’t play. The tournament is played stepladder style, with the top two seeds automatically in the semifinals.

Favorite:  UC Irvine (24-8, 17-3)

The Anteaters are a respectable #73 in the NET and KenPom. They are ranked 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency and played a decent non-conference slate, where they secured a road win over USC. Additionally, they lost to San Diego State by one on the road and Utah State by ten. While efficiency isn’t their offensive strength, they use volume to score (77.7 points; 73rd in the country).

Contenders: UC Davis (19-12, 14-6), Hawaii (19-13, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  UC Santa Barbara (16-14, 9-11)

Preview:

With the Pac-12 going away, the Big West is the “conference of California.”

Most conferences allow ineligible NCAA Tournament teams to compete in their conference tournament. That is not the case in the Big West. Despite their 15-5 conference mark, UC San Diego is not eligible to play.

UC Davis is looking for their second NCAA Tournament bid. The Aggies won their final three games (Hawaii, UC San Diego (road), and Long Beach State (road)). Senior guard Elijah Pepper and junior guard Ty Johnson are mid-major monsters, averaging 20.5 and 17.6 points respectively.

Hawaii finished the season on a 7-3 run, earning themselves a first-round bye. The Rainbow Warriors lost to Nevada by six in non-conference play They are a strong premier defensive team, allowing only 4.6 made threes per contest (best in the country).

UC Santa Barbara will play Cal State Northridge in the first round, with the winner facing Hawaii. The Gauchos defeated the Rainbow Warriors twice this season. They average 75.1 points, with four players averaging double digits. At 49.4%, their field goal percentage is 8th in the country.

Bottom Line:

UC Irvine is a good team with solid metrics. However, I like UC Davis‘s star power. I will lean there in 2024.

Winner: UC Davis

History: Kentucky has 32 titles. The rest of the conference has 31. The Wildcats haven’t won since 2018.

No team has pulled off the SEC Tournament/NCAA Tournament double since 2007 when Florida accomplished the feat for the second straight year.

Returning Champion: Alabama

The Crimson Tide won their eighth championship. As the #1 seed, they won three games by a combined 63 points. In the final, they mauled #2 Texas A&M, 82-63. As the #1 seed in the South Region, they continued their dominance with back-to-back slaughters of Texas A&M – Corpus Christi and Maryland. However, in the Sweet 16, they ran into upstart San Diego State, who beat them by seven.

Format:  All 14 teams make the field (yes, including 0-18 Missouri). The top four teams are automatically placed in the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Tennessee (24-7, 14-4)

The Volunteers are in the running for the 4th #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Before losing to Kentucky in the season finale, they were on a 7-game winning streak that featured wins over Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina. 

Ranked #5 in the KenPom, Tennessee is third in adjusted defensive efficiency. On offense, they average 80.2 points, thanks to senior guard Dalton Knecht, who averages 21.4 points on 47.4% shooting (40.5% from three).

Contenders: Kentucky (23-8, 13-5), Alabama (21-10, 13-5), Auburn (24-7, 13-5), South Carolina (25-6, 13-5), Florida (21-10, 11-7)

Live Long Shot:  Arkansas (15-16, 6-12)

Preview:

Kentucky is flying. After losing a road game to LSU on 2/21, the Wildcats finished with five straight wins. Amongst those wins are conquests of Alabama, Mississippi State (road), and Tennessee (road). For most of the season, Kentucky was all about their offense. Their 89.5 average is second in the nation and their 3-point shooting percentage (41.2%) is the country’s top number. While their defense won’t be their calling card, they played better down the stretch. When you score like the Wildcats, you don’t need a top defense – you need a competent one. If they keep up their recent play, they have a competent one.

Alabama doesn’t know what defense is. The nation’s top-scoring team (90.8), their defense allows 80.4 (352nd). Despite how awful that is, their defensive efficiency is just outside the Top 100 (hardly great). The Crimson Tide is paced by senior guard Mark Sears (21.1 points (50.6% FG)/4.1 assists/4.0 rebounds). The key is to force teams to play at their frantic pace. They struggled to win against the top competition on their non-conference schedule, with a 102-80 win over Indiana State ranking as their best.

Auburn had a strange season. The Tigers, consistently a Top 10 NET squad, won only one Quad 1 game – a home conquest of Alabama. However, they went 9-0 in Quad 2. Like Kentucky and Alabama, the Tigers like to score (83.5; 13th in the country). In addition, they ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, allowing them to rank 4th in the KenPom. Essentially, Auburn is a Final Four threat that couldn’t get over the Quad 1 hump. We’ll see if they can turn that around.

South Carolina is one of the country’s most surprising teams. Their poor non-conference schedule hid how good they were early in the season. The Gamecocks were the first team to beat Tennessee on the road and they finished the season on a 4-1 run that included wins over Ole Miss (road), Texas A&M (road), Florida, and Mississippi State (road). In-conference road wins are gold, and they piled up an impressive array of them. They are likely on the second tier (the KenPom and NET aren’t fond of them), but they have proven the doubters wrong all year.

Florida finished their season with a 79-78 loss to Vanderbilt. It was their first Quad 3/4 loss, but it doesn’t damage their profile much. With a balanced offensive attack, the Gators average 84.9 points (7th) as they like to play at a high tempo. They rank first in the country in field goal attempts (65.6), shooting 45.7%. This is all made possible by being the country’s second-best offensive-rebounding squad (15.2).

Arkansas is supposed to be an NCAA Tournament team. An early-season win over Duke likely had them dreaming of Final Four possibilities. It wasn’t meant to be, as they struggled inside the conference. Maybe a “nothing to lose” attitude can catapult them to a run. If they beat Vanderbilt, their path includes upstart South Carolina and Quad 1-challenged Auburn. At the very least, you can see a path to a run.

Bottom Line:

According to the NET, the SEC has three top teams and a 4th (Kentucky) that is in the top 20. This tournament has the makings of a good one.

Winner: Kentucky

History: The SWAC is traditionally fodder in the NCAA Tournament, but their conference tournament is filled with history. Texas Southern has three straight championships and seven in the last nine years. Their streak of success has allowed them to overtake Southern for the most titles in history (11-9).

In 2013, Southern played Gonzaga within six in a 16-vs-1 contest. The last time a SWAC team won a main-bracket game (not a First Four game) was in 1993, when Southern defeated Georgia Tech in a 13-vs-4 matchup, setting up a rare 12-vs-13 second-round game. George Washington won that game.

Returning Champion: Texas Southern

Despite their dominance in recent conference tournaments, the 2023 squad was seeded 8th (last). They knocked off #1 Alcorn State, #5 Alabama A&M, and #2 Grambling State to punch their NCAA Tournament ticket. As a 20-loss team, they went to the First Four, where they lost to the FDU squad that went on to beat Purdue.

Format:  Eight of the 12 schools make the field. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Prairie View A&M, Florida A&M, and Mississippi Valley State missed the cut.

Favorite:  Grambling State (17-14, 14-4)

Many teams in this conference have less-than-inspiring W-L records. The reason is they tend to play tough non-conference slates. In the case of Grambling State, they lost to Colorado, Iowa State, Dayton, Washington State, Florida, and Drake.  Their world improved when they got to conference play, where they finished the season on a 6-1 run to catapult themselves to an outright championship. The offense is not their thing, but they are decent defensively. They are shooting for their first NCAA Tournament appearance.

Contenders: Alcorn State (14-17, 13-5), Texas Southern (14-15, 12-6), Southern (18-13, 12-6)

Live Long Shot:  Alabama A&M (10-21, 9-9)

Preview:

I limit the number of contenders, but any of these eight teams should feel as if they can win this.

Alcorn State enters the tournament on a 9-game winning streak, though they did lose their only matchup with Grambling State. Their last NCAA appearance was in 2002. While Grambling is about defense, the Braves are better offensively. They average 72.2 points, with senior forward Jeremiah Kendall contributing 16 points and 6.7 rebounds.

Texas Southern will never be counted out. The Tigers’ top four scorers are seniors, with PJ Henry averaging 15.3 points. Most of their non-conference losses were by colossal margins, but they did play Drake within six on the road. They picked up the pace late, going 5-1 in their last six games.

Southern earned some credibility in the non-conference, defeating UNLV and Mississippi State on the road. Perhaps seen as a favorite to win the title after those wins, the Jaguars slipped late. They went 2-4 in their last six games. That slump followed a 7-game winning streak. Part of their slump was due to the loss of guard Tai’reon Joseph, who averaged 20.5 points in 19 games. Suffice it to say, a mid-major losing this level of a star will struggle.

Alabama A&M will play Alcorn State in the 7-vs-2 matchup. They played once this season, a 74-71 win for Alcorn State.

Bottom Line:

This tournament can go in any direction. Southern would be my team with Joseph, but they won’t have him. I think a team earning their first NCAA Tournament bid is fun.

Winner: Grambling State

History: Several teams have left the Mountain West through the years, but San Diego State is a constant and the all-time leader in titles (7) and title-game appearances (15). They have been in the championship game for six straight years.

Returning Champion: San Diego State 

It wasn’t easy, but the Aztecs (as the #1 seed) defeated Colorado State, San Jose State, and Utah State to take the crown. They used their title to make a run to the NCAA Tournament championship game, where they succumbed to UConn. Given the recent poor performance of this multi-bid league, their run to the championship was a welcome sight for the league’s defenders.

Format:  All 11 schools make the field. Teams seeded 1-5 automatically advance to the second round.

Favorite:  Utah State (26-5, 14-4)

There are a lot of possibilities for the “favorite” spot. I am choosing the one who won the regular-season title outright.

The Aggies closed the season with five straight wins. A Top 50 squad in offensive and defensive efficiency, they average 79.9 points while allowing 69.6. Junior forward Great Osobor is a beast, averaging 17.6 points/9.0 rebounds/1.5 blocks. Overall, they are one of the sharpest shooting schools in the country (49.8%; 6th). They were not projected to have a great season, but here they are.

Contenders: Nevada (26-6, 13-5), Boise State (22-9, 13-5), UNLV (19-11, 12-6), San Diego State (22-9, 11-7), New Mexico (22-9, 10-8), Colorado State (22-9, 10-8)

Live Long Shot:  Wyoming (15-16, 8-10)

Preview:

I try to pare down the number of contenders, but how can one differentiate one from the other? Every contender above (other than UNLV) is at least on the bubble (all six are likely getting into the tournament).

Nevada won seven Quad 1 games and finished the season on a 9-1 run that included road wins against Utah State and Colorado State. Senior guard Jarod Lucas averages 17.8 points and shoots 40.1% from beyond the arc. It took a few years but Steve Alford has the program on the right track. This will be their second consecutive NCAA Tournament bid.

Boise State secured six Quad 1 wins and finished the season on a 6-1 run, including a bid-stamping road win over San Diego State in the finale. The Broncos played a tough non-conference slate, including a neutral-court win over St. Mary’s. They lost by five to Washington State. Balance is a good way to describe this squad, as four players average between 12.5 and 16.8 points.

UNLV finished fourth in a league that is looking at six bids. However, they aren’t projected to be one of them, thanks to three Quadrant 4 losses. Their advantage here is that the tournament is played on their home floor. Far removed from the days of high-scoring, must-see entertainment, the Rebels run one of the slowest offenses in the country (312th in adjusted tempo). They finished the year on an impressive 9-2 run and will play San Diego State in the quarterfinal.

While Utah State is my favorite, San Diego State may be the best team. The Aztecs defeated St. Mary’s on a neutral court and Gonzaga on the road in the non-conference (they played one of the toughest non-conference slates). Forward Jaedon Ledee paces the offense with 20.5 points (best in the conference) on 55.7% shooting. His offense supports the defense, which ranks 8th in defensive efficiency. As good as they are, playing UNLV on their home court is not a fun opening matchup.

New Mexico slipped onto the bubble late in the season, thanks to a 4-6 finish that included a horrible loss to Air Force. A top-40 team in offensive and defensive efficiency, the Lobos average 82.6 points. Three players average 15+ points, including Jamal Mashburn Jr., the son of former NBA player Jamal Mashburn. Donovan Dent adds 5.5 assists to his 15.0 scoring average. This team is high-tempo, averaging 45.4 two-point attempts (#1 in the country).

Colorado State knocked off Creighton (neutral), Washington (neutral), and Colorado (home) in the non-conference. The Rams struggled down the stretch and haven’t defeated a top team since their February 17th conquest of Utah State.  They are safely in the tournament unless they lose to San Jose State in the first round. They are a senior-laden team (five top scorers) that will be dangerous once March Madness begins.

Wyoming did something hard to do: The Cowboys went 0-10 in Quadrant 1 games. I am not declaring them as a legitimate threat, because nobody beyond the top seven are legitimate threats. They shoot 36.8% from three (34th in the country), so an upset is possible if they get hot.

Bottom Line:

Your guess is as good as mine. This is a deep and talented field with no obvious favorite. I want to pick Nevada, but they have a potential quarterfinal battle with Colorado State. I would easily go with San Diego State, but they are playing a road game against UNLV. 

Winner: Boise State

History: The Big Ten has produced five straight different conference champions. In the 25 years this tournament has been played, the #1 seed has won ten times.

Michigan State has the most titles, with six. Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana (wow), Rutgers, Nebraska, Maryland, and Northwestern have never cut down the nets. The only team to ever win this tournament and the NCAA Tournament in the same year was Michigan State in 2000. That is the last time a Big Ten school won the championship.

Returning Champion: Purdue. As the #1 seed, the Boilermakers struggled, beating Rutgers by five in the quarterfinals and Penn State by two in the championship. I don’t think anyone thought their performance would foreshadow a loss to FDU in a 16-vs-1 game, but that happened.

Format:  All 14 schools make the field. The top four squads automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Favorite:  Purdue (28-3, 17-3)

Three schools are in contention for the #1 overall seed: UConn, Houston, and Purdue. Some would argue that the #1 overall seed isn’t too important in 2024, since the three contenders are all locked into their regions anyway. However, your path to the Final Four should be slightly easier.

The Boilermakers are having a big season. Their various rankings:  NET: 2, RPI: 1, SOR: 1, SOS: 2, Non-conference SOS: 1. They are 11-3 in Quadrant 1 with non-conference wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Alabama, Arizona, and Xavier.

Zach Edey is one of the best players in the country, averaging 24.2 points and 11.7 rebounds.

Contenders: Illinois (23-8, 14-6), Nebraska (22-9, 12-8), Northwestern (21-10, 12-8), Wisconsin (19-12, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  Indiana (18-13, 10-10)

Preview:

Are there contenders to win this title? If Purdue is playing anywhere in the vicinity of their best, doubtful. But nothing is impossible.

Illinois went 0-2 against Purdue this season, but both games were played within single digits. Ranked #15 in the NET and 10th in the KenPom, the Fighting Illini is a legitimate (and under-the-radar) Final Four caliber team. They are an offensive juggernaut that ranks #4 in offensive efficiency and 12th in points (83.9). Senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. has 15 20+ point efforts in 24 games, averaging 21.6 points. Four seniors average double digits and are one of the top rebounding teams in the country. They are vulnerable on the defensive side, so that is a storyline.

Nebraska finished the season on a 6-1 run and own the most impressive win over Purdue (88-72). The Cornhuskers are a three-point-heavy offense, averaging 26.2 attempts (33rd). After an impressive road win over Kansas State on December 17th, they didn’t win another road game until their February 21st win over Indiana. This is a good team on the opposite side of the bracket from Purdue so one can see them in the championship.

Northwestern is Purdue’s nemesis. The two squads split their season series, with both games going to overtime. Their methodical pace is efficient, and the Wildcats are a top 3-point shooting squad (39.6%; 7th). Their status on the bubble is due to a bad non-conference schedule, though they did defeat Dayton. As the #4 seed, the chalk would put them in the semi-finals against Purdue.

The chalk would place Wisconsin in that quarterfinal game with Northwestern. The Badgers defeated Virginia by 24 and Marquette by 11 in the non-conference and looked like one of the top teams in the nation when they started 13-3. The second half of the season didn’t go quite as well, as they compiled a 6-9 mark down the stretch. They defeated Northwestern in their only matchup this year. The question is: Can they bounce back in time to make noise here?

Indiana went 4-0 down the stretch, including wins over Michigan State and Wisconsin. 7’0″ sophomore center Kel’el Ware averages 16.1 points and 9.8 rebounds. The Hoosiers are a terrible shooting team from the perimeter, but their size can cause issues. After playing the winner of Penn State-Michigan, they should find themselves in the quarterfinals against Nebraska, a team that beat them twice by double digits.

Bottom Line:

I want to find a team that can shock the world, but it isn’t easy. A semi-finals matchup between Purdue and Northwestern will at least make Boilermakers’ fans sweat. But will the result be in serious doubt?

Winner: Purdue

History: The remaining league members are happy New Mexico State has moved on. From 2010-2023, the Aggies won this tournament nine times, including stretches where they won four and three in a row. The new king of the hill is Grand Canyon, who has won the crown in two of the last three years. The Antelopes are the only current league member who has ever won this title.

Returning Champion: Grand Canyon, the #5 seed, defeated top-seeded Sam Houston and #3 Southern Utah to take the title. They played Gonzaga tough in a 14-vs-3 matchup, losing 82-70.

Format:  Eight of the 11 schools make the field. Utah Tech, Southern Utah, and UT Rio Grande Valley didn’t make it. Given that they are in their last year of transitioning to Division I, Utah Tech wouldn’t have been eligible for the NCAA Tournament. Also ineligible is the #2 seed Tarleton State. The tournament is played stepladder style, with the top two seeds automatically placed into the semi-finals.

Favorite:  Grand Canyon (27-4, 17-3)

At one point this season, Grand Canyon was an NCAA Tournament bubble team that received Top 25 votes in the AP poll. Back-to-back road losses to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian ended their at-large dreams, but they are still the heavy favorites to win the tournament. They own a Quad 1 win (home over San Diego State) and lost to South Carolina by only seven points. After their 2-game stumble, they finished the season with three wins by 82 points.

Ranked 55th in the KenPom, they are 63rd in offensive efficiency and 56th in defensive efficiency. They average 79.5 points (allow 66.5). The no-doubt leader is senior guard Tyon Grant-Foster, who averages 19.4 points and 5.9 rebounds.

Contenders: Tarleton State (23-8, 16-4), UT Arlington (18-13, 13-7), Seattle (18-13, 11-9)

Live Long Shot:  Abilene Christian (15-16, 10-10)

Preview:

Grand Canyon is in the driver’s seat, as the second-best team in the conference isn’t eligible to go to the NCAA Tournament. Given the tournament structure, they may only need one win to earn the automatic bid (if Tarleton State wins their semi-final game, they will be playing for bragging rights in the title game).

Speaking of Tarleton, they own that win over Grand Canyon and are 11-1 in their last 12 games. In the non-conference, there isn’t usually anything to brag about when you lose by 19. However, they did that at Tennessee, which qualifies as a confidence builder. Their balanced attack includes four players who average between 12.2 and 15.8 points. This is their first winning season in four years of Division I play. They can be a threat for years to come.

UT Arlington lost by only two on the road against New Mexico and 11 to Texas Tech in the non-conference. Like Tarleton, the Mavericks are rolling as of late, winning their final six games. By challenging themselves in the non-conference, they built up their confidence to the point where they are a threat to spoil the party.

Seattle was the first team to beat Grand Canyon in conference play. An 0-3 finish left them with the #4 seed, meaning they could see Grand Canyon again in the semifinals. The Redhawks rely on a solid defense (70th according to the KenPom). In the non-conference, they held VCU to 60 points and San Francisco to 62. Additionally, in a home game, they lost to Washington by a 100-99 margin in two overtimes. They have not reached the NCAA Tournament since 1969, spending several seasons (1981-2008) outside of Division I.

Abilene Christian gets the nod as a longshot due to that win over Grand Canyon. In the season opener, they announced their presence when they defeated Oklahoma State by five on the road. Also enhancing their resume is a 7-1 finish to the season, including a win over their first-round opponent (Stephen F. Austin).

Bottom Line:

Grand Canyon is the favorite, but other teams finished the season on high notes. The stepladder format and Tarleton State‘s ineligibility make their job much easier.

Winner: Grand Canyon