Category: College Basketball

I have asked this question a few times, and it feels appropriate now:

What happens when the SEC starts to eat each other?

The idea that nearly the entire conference will get into the NCAA Tournament is still valid. Mid-major leagues aren’t loading up with potential at-large bids, and the ACC/Big East aren’t juicy bid leagues either. Someone has to grab those bids, and the SEC/Big Ten/Big 12 figure to grab most of them.

But how do we justify teams with bad conference records? Potential tournament teams Oklahoma, Arkansas, LSU, Texas, and South Carolina have started 0-3. A tough conference doesn’t mean everyone will finish between 10-8 and 8-10. Good teams will likely finish 6-12 or 5-13. How do you handle them? This is a story that will evolve as the season goes on.

The Big Ten will have a similar storyline, though their teams figure to be more tightly bunched. The Big 12 is top-heavy (and that top is impressive!). Cincinnati, like Rutgers in the Big Ten, is one of the nation’s most disappointing teams.

As for the mid-majors, it isn’t promising for the “little guys” this season. The WCC features Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, two teams hardly seen as mid-major programs. If we look beyond them and the Mountain West teams, the highest-ranked team (NET) is San Diego, currently 53rd thanks to an impressive road win over Utah State. It won’t end up being a resume for at-large dreams, however. The A-10 is a dead zone, as Dayton’s slump has dropped them to 61st.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (15-1) (1) – The Tigers have yet to play the best of the SEC, but they won two conference road games last week.
2. Duke (14-2) (4) – Imagine combining an elite defense with a super freshman scorer. The Blue Devils are a problem.
3. Iowa State (14-1) (3) – A miracle win on Saturday. The Cyclones are the only team besides Duke with a top-ten offensive and defensive rating.
4. Florida (15-1) (6) – Individual games shouldn’t influence rankings much because you will spin in circles. However, their win over Tennessee is impossible to ignore.
5. Tennessee (15-1) (2) – Did their loss to Florida unmask a less-than-ideal offense? Or should we understand that elite teams sometimes have bad days?
6. Alabama (14-2) (5) – Texas A&M’s defense is legit. The Crimson Tide scored 94 points against the Aggies. Alabama is averaging 96.3 PPG in three SEC contests.
7. Marquette (14-2) (8) – The only Big East squad with a top 20 offense and defense.
8. Kansas (12-3) (12) – It’s been over a month since the Jayhawks allowed an opponent to score more than 62 points.
9. Texas A&M (13-3) (7) – Their trademark defense faltered against Alabama. To their credit, the offense mostly kept up.
10. Houston (12-3) (15) – The ranking systems love them, and rightfully so. However, they remain 0-3 in Quadrant 1.
11.  Kentucky (13-3) (10) – Fun with college basketball: The Wildcats have conference wins over Florida and Mississippi State but weren’t competitive against Georgia.
12. Michigan State (14-2) (16) – Their 5-0 Big Ten start includes three road wins.
13. Michigan (13-3) (18) – UCLA is slumping, but beating the Bruins by 19 on the road is wildly impressive. The Wolverines have yet to lose a game by more than two points.
14. Mississippi State (14-2) (13) – Definition of a 6-game gauntlet: Kentucky (loss), Auburn (road), Mississippi (home), Tennessee (road), South Carolina (road), Alabama (home).
15. Oregon (15-2) (11) – Back-to-back conference road wins = dropping four spots? One of my favorite sayings is that a drop in my rankings often isn’t a reflection of anything you did wrong.
16. Illinois (12-4) (9) – “Didn’t they beat Oregon by a zillion on the road?” Yes. “Didn’t you say you Florida’s destruction of Tennessee is why they are ahead of them?” As I said, spin yourself in circles.
17. UConn (13-4) (14) – The Huskies are 111th in adjusted defense. I know they are dealing with an injury to a significant player, but their defense wasn’t spectacular with him either.
18. Gonzaga (14-4) (20) – The Bulldogs will remain loved by the computers. The schedule likely offers only one more Quadrant 1 opportunity (St. Mary’s on the road. The home game might fall into Quadrant 2.
19. Purdue (13-4) (NR) – Their six Big Ten games have been decided by double digits (5-1). The Boilermakers own two wins over the big, bad SEC (Alabama (home) and Ole Miss (neutral)).
20. Wisconsin (13-3) (23) – They have put their 3-game losing streak to Michigan, Marquette, and Illinois in the rearview mirror.
21.  Ole Miss (14-2) (NR) – Have I been too harsh? I don’t love their schedule, but they are 4-2 in Quadrant 1 and are off to a 3-0 start in the SEC.
22. Memphis (13-3) (22) – I won’t move them up or down this week. The Tigers have impressive wins and a horrible loss. They defeated East Carolina by only four at home.
23. Arizona (10-5) (NR) – A team needs to be special for me to rank them at 10-5. The Wildcats are better than you think, though I won’t ignore the 2-5 mark in Quadrant 1.
24. Utah State (16-1) (NR) – The Mountain West isn’t at last year’s level, but is still the top-ranked conference (NET) outside the “Big 5.” The Aggies’ 2-point loss to the University of San Diego suppresses their computer numbers.
25. Georgia (14-2) (NR) – Their SEC schedule is front-loaded. So far, the Bulldogs are holding their own (road loss to Ole Miss, home wins over Kentucky and Oklahoma). Their reward for good effort? Games this week against Tennessee (road) and Auburn (home). Yikes.

Dropped Out:

Oklahoma (13-3) (17) – Three straight losses after their 13-0 start. The computers weren’t in love with them at 13-0. At 13-3, they approach bubble status.
UCLA (11-5) (19) – The Bruins are 1-4 in their last five games. They have lost by a combined 37 points in their last two games.
Pittsburgh (12-4) (21) – Competiton for Duke? A 76-47 loss (followed by a home loss to Louisville) says otherwise.
Nebraska (12-4) (24) – The margins in a competitive Big Ten are small. Losing to Iowa in overtime on the road isn’t horrible. Losing by 36 at Purdue? That’s enough for a demotion.
West Virginia (12-3) (25) – As long as they don’t collapse, those wins over Gonzaga (neutral), Arizona (neutral), and Kansas (road) will carry a lot of weight in the committee room.

Just Missed:

Baylor (11-4) – The Bears have an interesting resume. Their 3-4 Quad 1 record includes a 0-4 mark in Top 25 games. They are firmly on the Top 25 bubble.
St. John’s (14-3) – The Big East has an obvious leader (Marquette) with two teams in the “second tier” (UConn and St. John’s). The Red Storm lacks a bad loss but has a singular Quad 1 victory.
Maryland (13-4) – Firmly in the Big Ten conversation, the Terrapins have run into bad luck: Their four losses are by a combined 19 points. Three of those games were against top competition (Marquette, Purdue, Oregon).

Top 25:

1. Auburn (13-1) (1) – The Tigers are on cruise control. Only two of their 13 wins were within single digits.
2. Tennessee (14-0) (2) – Only one of their 14 wins (Illinois) was within single digits.
3. Iowa State (12-1) (4) – Their 19-point romp over Baylor was a statement win.
4. Duke (12-2) (5) – It is safe to ask if there is any competition for the Blue Devils in the ACC.
5. Alabama (12-2) (6) – The Crimson Tide have four 100+ point efforts (Illinois and Oklahoma are amongst the victims)
6. Florida (13-1) (3) – The 5th highest-scoring squad in the nation was on the losing end of a 105-100 thriller against Kentucky. A style clash with Tennessee is next.
7. Texas A&M (12-2) (9) – Texas wasn’t much of a rival, as the Aggies torched them by 20. Scary good defensively.
8. Marquette (13-2) (10) – The metrics show they are the Big East’s best team.
9. Illinois (11-3) (22) – The Illini went to the West Coast and destroyed Oregon before squeaking past Washington.
10. Kentucky (12-2) (13) – Their high-octane offense outlasted Florida’s. The SEC is insanely strong, and the contrasting styles should make for some fun games.
11. Oregon (13-2) (8) – The Ducks tanked in the KenPom after that awful loss to Illinois, but I will stay bullish.
12. Kansas (10-3) (7) – The Jayhawks are losing annoying games and it is fair to ask why.
13. Mississippi State (13-1) (18) – How exactly did they lose to Butler in the non-conference?
14. UConn (12-3) (14) – The Huskies haven’t lost since Maui, but oof, you need to ignore many things to place them in the top ten.
15. Houston (10-3) (15) – I still want to see a signature win to move them up.
16. Michigan State (12-2) (17) – Road conference wins are gold, and the Spartans earned an impressive one over Ohio State.
17. Oklahoma (13-1) (11) – There were many questions about Oklahoma. Getting annihilated by Alabama doesn’t give them a favorable answer.
18. Michigan (11-3) (21) – Only two Big Ten squads are unbeaten in conference play (Michigan State and Michigan). Their three losses are by a combined five points.
19. UCLA (11-3) (12) – They have a win over Gonzaga but losses to North Carolina and Nebraska in their last three games.
20. Gonzaga (12-4) (20) – Pepperdine gave them a fight, but *yawn*.
21. Pittsburgh (12-2) (25) – The Panthers may be good enough to scare Duke.
22. Memphis (12-3) (NR)—Two weeks ago, I said I would never rank them again. I am a glutton for punishment.
23. Wisconsin (11-3) (NR) – Their wins over Arizona (starting to get their act together) and Pitt are looking more impressive.
24. Nebraska (12-2) (NR) – The Cornhuskers have a sneaky top-ten defense.
25. West Virginia (11-2) (NR) – Don’t look now, but the Mountaineers have wins over Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kansas. Their losses to Pitt and Louisville aren’t looking so bad.

Dropped Out:

Cincinnati (10-3) (16) – A bad non-conference schedule followed with back-to-back losses to Kansas State and Arizona to start Big 12 play. Ouch.
St. John’s (12-3) (19) – If you haven’t figured it out, signature wins are high on my list for team strength. The Red Storm continues to search for theirs.
Dayton (11-4) (23) – The Flyers will have to lick their wounds after a 20-point loss to George Washington.
Maryland (11-4) (24) – The games were close, but they lost to Washington and Oregon on the road.

Just Missed:

Mississippi (12-2) – I have yet to rank the Rebels because of schedule concerns.
Clemson (12-3) – Nice win over Kentucky and a 4-0 conference start. They don’t play Duke until February.
Utah State (14-1) – They are off to a big start in the Mountain West.

This was the last “quiet” week. Conference play goes into full gear this week, and it should be entertaining in this age of super conferences. There is a lot of talk that the SEC will get nearly the entire conference into the tournament, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. We know a few of the teams will struggle in conference play. How would the committee view an 18-14 SEC team vs. a 28-5 Drake squad?  I think they will lean towards the former, but the debates will be strong.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (11-1) (1) – The Tigers seemingly have zero weaknesses. If they do, the SEC competition will find it and exploit it.
2. Tennessee (12-0) (2) – We could circle that 1/7 “battle of the unbeaten” against Florida, but they have to get past Arkansas first.
3. Florida (13-0) (3) – For Florida to hold up their part of the bargain, they will need to beat Kentucky on the road.
4. Iowa State (10-1) (4) – A scheduling quirk has them playing Colorado three times (they played a “non-conference” tilt in Maui).
5. Duke (10-2) (5) – Their offense has climbed to 10th in efficiency, making the Blue Devils the only squad with a top-10 offense and defense.
6. Alabama (11-2) (6) – They will go as far as their explosive offense will take them.
7. Kansas (9-2) (7) – Played well against a good non-conference schedule. Iowa State is the conference’s best team, but Kansas isn’t far behind.
8. Oregon (12-1) (8) – None of the teams in my Top 10 are as surprising as the Ducks.
9. Texas A&M (11-2) (9) – A Top 20 non-conference schedule and a 6th-ranked defense is enough for me.
10. Marquette (11-2) (10) – As good as the Golden Eagles have been in recent years, their last Elite Eight appearance was in 2013. Is this the year that changes?
11. Oklahoma (13-0) (11) – The KenPom remains unconvinced (37th). They can prove how good they are in SEC play as they begin conference play with a game at Alabama followed by a home game against Texas A&M.
12. UCLA (11-2) (20)—Although their non-conference SOS was mediocre, they defeated Gonzaga and Arizona. Their conference road win over Oregon is as impressive as any this season.
13. Kentucky (10-2) (12) – They remain a mysterious SEC squad. Their resume is fine, but I wonder if their defense holds up.
14. UConn (10-3) (13) – Their defense is questionable, but their conference is more forgiving than Kentucky’s.
15. Houston (8-3) (14) – The KenPom is in love and I can see why (their offensive + defensive rankings = 14, behind only Duke and Auburn).
16. Cincinnati (10-1) (17) – Great defense, questionable schedule. Their vibe is similar to UCLA’s, but UCLA has bigger wins.
17. Michigan State (10-2) (18) – The Spartans want North Carolina to start rolling, as it would represent their only big non-conference conquest.
18. Mississippi State (11-1) (19) – Can the Bulldogs rise to the top of this most difficult conference?
19. St. John’s (11-2) (21) – Where would they be ranked if they hung on to defeat Baylor? Their two losses are by a combined four points.
20. Gonzaga (9-4) (16) – Final tally against the non-conference: Wins over Baylor, Arizona State, San Diego State, Indiana. Losses to West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn, and UCLA. The rest of their schedule is against a weakened WCC (St. Mary’s is the conference’s second-best squad according to the KenPom, ranked 48th)
21. Michigan (10-3) (22) – Western Kentucky was the unfortunate “next game” after that devastating loss to Oklahoma. They are a matchup nightmare.
22. Illinois (9-3) (23) – Massive showdown with Oregon to begin the new year.
23. Dayton (10-3) (24) – It will be interesting to see how the A-10 plays out this season. Dayton will be battle-tested (they own a Top 50 non-conference schedule). The next-best non-conference schedule is owned by St. Louis, at 188th.
24. Maryland (11-2) (25) – Given their dreadful non-conference slate, a big in-conference performance is required.
25. Pittsburgh (10-2) (NR) – We will find out how serious of a contender Pitt is when they visit Duke on January 7th.

Dropped Out:

San Diego State (8-3) (15) – They had the game against Utah State under control, only to lose it by a point. The Mountain West will be ultra-competitive.

Just Missed:

Arkansas (10-2) – They are close. They may jump into the Top 15 if they beat Tennessee on the road this week (they also play Ole Miss and Florida to open up SEC play – crazy)
Baylor (8-3) – Speaking of jumping into the Top 15, the Bears begin Big 12 play at Iowa State.
Memphis (10-3) – Their roller coaster non-conference is complete. They have the nation’s 4th strongest non-conference schedule, defeating UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, and Mississippi. Meanwhile, they lost a home game to Arkansas State.

What is going on in Piscataway?

Rutgers, with two of the best freshmen in the college game, is having trouble converting talent into wins. It isn’t the fault of those freshmen, as Dylan Harper averages 23.3 points per game while Airious (Ace) Bailey is at 17.6 points and 7.6 rebounds. Yet, they have losses to Kennesaw State and Princeton. They struggled with Seton Hall, a 5-7 squad ranked 136th in the KenPom. While it is justified to say that in-state rivalry games can be close regardless of strength, it stands out.

According to KenPom, the Scarlet Knights are a mediocre 67th offensively and an even-worse 107th defensively.

Is this a squad that is having trouble gelling? If so, expect them to be a dangerous Big Ten team as they figure that out. However, if they don’t figure it out, they will have nothing to show for having two potential lottery picks on their team. Not only is that bad for Rutgers basketball, it would be bad for the sport. This is the type of talent you want in the NCAA Tournament.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (11-1) (2) – The Tigers played a Top Ten non-conference schedule and romped. Their destruction of Purdue cemented their rise back to the top.
2. Tennessee (11-0) (1) – I say this often: Sometimes, a team does nothing to warrant a move down. It’s other teams that did something to warrant a move up. Will their 1/7 game against Florida be a battle of the unbeaten?
3. Florida (12-0) (3) – I won’t claim they played a strong non-conference schedule, but back-to-back wins over Virginia, Arizona State, and North Carolina aren’t so bad.
4. Iowa State (10-1) (4) – Their lone loss remains the 2-point thriller against Auburn.
5. Duke (10-2) (6) – I discussed their insane defense last week, saying their offense will improve. This week? Their offensive efficiency is up to 11th. Can anyone challenge them in the ACC?
6. Alabama (10-2) (7) – North Dakota exploited the Crimson Tide’s less-than-ideal defense. It won’t be a top-tier defense, but it needs to improve.
7. Kansas (9-2) (8) – While the Missouri and Creighton losses stand out, the Jayhawks defeated Duke, Michigan State, and North Carolina during a solid non-conference slate.
8. Oregon (11-1) (10) – While many teams had issues against the SEC, the Ducks went 2-0 against the nation’s top conference.
9. Texas A&M (10-2) (9) – Head-to-head isn’t everything (see: Duke ahead of Kansas), but I felt I needed to correct placing them ahead of Oregon last week. Their profiles don’t support it.
10. Marquette (11-2) (13) – In the top 20 in offense and defense, the Golden Eagles are currently the class of the Big East.
11. Oklahoma (12-0) (14) – Everyone knows I place value in SOS, and Oklahoma’s is not good. Their luck factor should have jumped to #1 after that win over Michigan.
12. Kentucky (10-2) (5) – Their defense is exploitable, and did Ohio State ever exploit it.
13. UConn (10-3) (12) – Speaking of exploitable defense, the Huskies are 98th in the KenPom. It explains why they are winning, but not convincingly. Still dangerous.
14. Houston (8-3) (18) – If you want my criticism, it is simple: Losing close games to good teams while destroying not-so-good teams. Further complicating my evaluation is their early-season Big 12 schedule isn’t strong.
15. San Diego State (8-2) (19) – Some metrics aren’t encouraging, but the Aztecs have played well against tough competition.
16. Gonzaga (9-3) (20) – One more game (UCLA) before they enter the part of their schedule where they can’t win the minds of fans (dominating the WCC again? Ho hum)
17. Cincinnati (10-1) (21) – Completed an Ohio sweep (Xavier, Dayton). Teams are scoring 59.5 PPG against the tough Bearcats defense.
18. Michigan State (10-2) (22) – Like many teams, the Spartans are on cruise control heading into 2025.
19. Mississippi State (11-1) (24) – The loss to Butler is weird, but it’s college basketball. I feel as if we are all underrating them.
20. UCLA (10-2) (11) – When the dust clears, North Carolina benefits more from the win than UCLA will be hurt by the loss.
21. St. John’s (10-2) (NR) – The metrics like them despite the lack of a defining win. I weigh both of those factors to place them 21st this week.
22. Michigan (9-3) (16) – The Wolverines are kicking themselves. Their three losses are by a combined five points. Trouble finishing close games, or just dumb basketball luck?
23. Illinois (8-3) (25) – Their win over Missouri (in St. Louis) was as good of a basketball game as you will find.
24. Dayton (10-3) (15) – The Flyers went 2-3 against non-conference heavyweights (North Carolina, Iowa State, UConn, Marquette, Cincinnati). The Atlantic-10 is a solid mid-major conference, and Dayton is well-positioned for an at-large come March.
25. Maryland (10-2) (NR) – I have been teasing the Terrapins for a few weeks, and it’s time to pull the trigger. Metrically, they are as good as anyone in the conference. That said, the schedule is terrible. Considering all factors, this feels appropriate.

Dropped Out:

Purdue (8-4) (17) – Unlike Maryland, Purdue has played a strong schedule. How do you balance a strong schedule vs. results? It’s always enough to fry your brain.
Memphis (9-3) (23) – I may never rank them again. No, not this year. Ever. I can’t figure them out, so why should I bother?

Just Missed:

Drake (11-0) – Three SEC schools and Drake are our final unbeaten. They survived an obstacle against Kansas State. Are they this year’s Indiana State?
Arkansas (10-2) – While Maryland and St. John’s were promoted from “Just Missed” to “In,” Arkansas continues to wait for their turn. One thing we know: The SEC will offer opportunities.
Pittsburgh (10-2) – That loss to Mississippi State resonates in my brain, but their overall profile is impressive. It’s early and things will change, but the NET has them solidly placed behind Duke as the ACC’s second-best squad.

Finally, a week that stabilizes the Top 25. Only a few teams dropped out of the Top 25 for the first time this year. Both had a case to stay in.

The SEC has 20 combined losses (it’s a 16-team league). Conference play has yet to begin, but while every team plays its share of cupcakes, many SEC teams have played tough schedules. This will be a fun storyline come Selection Sunday, as an argument for up to 12 teams is possible. What will they do with the inevitable squad that falls apart but finishes 18-14 with a handful of high-quality wins?

The undefeated watch lost a few members, as Rhode Island, Loyola-Chicago, and UC Irvine walked off the court as losers for the first time. That leaves Tennessee, Florida, Oklahoma, Utah State, and Drake as our final five. Tennessee plays Florida on 1/7. Oklahoma has a matchup with Michigan on 12/18. Utah State has back-to-back road contests with St. Mary’s and San Diego State before the end of the calendar year. Drake takes on conference nemesis Bradley on 1/8 (road game). First, they will need to get past Kansas State.

Top 25:

1. Tennessee (10-0) (1) – If you were waiting for a big non-conference road win, you got it as they knocked off a pesky Illinois squad at the buzzer.7
2. Auburn (9-1) (2) – Ohio State hasn’t met preseason expectations. It was still a shock to see Auburn crush them by 38. I debated moving them back to #1.
3. Florida (10-0) (3) – The Gators have more to prove than Tennessee/Auburn, but they are crushing opponents by 21.1 points.
4. Iowa State (9-1) (4) – The Cyclones are the only team in the Top 10 offensively and defensively.
5. Kentucky (10-1) (5) – I don’t know what to think of Kentucky. However, what I do know is that they are stacking wins.
6. Duke (8-2) (7) – Their defense is top-notch. The scary thing is that the offense will likely get better.
7. Alabama (8-2) (8) – They will be dangerous if their defensive rating is in the Top 40 range (currently 35th).
8. Kansas (8-2) (9) – When a team ranked first in the preseason runs into a few bumps, they can easily become forgotten. Don’t do that.
9. Texas A&M (9-2) (14) – That season-opening loss to UCF will take a while to dissolve but they are playing well against a Top 20 schedule.
10. Oregon (10-1) (10) – Only one game since their 2-point loss to UCLA (a romp of Stephen F. Austin)
11. UCLA (9-1) (15) – The Big Ten appears to be a competitive conference. It’s two of the Pac-12 invaders who I believe stand apart (for now).
12. UConn (8-3) (17) – The bad news for the rest of the country is that it is time for Big East play. The conference looks less powerful than last year.
13. Marquette (9-2) (6) – A bit of a mixed bag, but the Golden Eagles own a Top 20 offense and defense.
14. Oklahoma (10-0) (16) – An unbeaten SEC squad deserves respect but there is a quality of opponent issue to overcome. Let’s see how they fare against Michigan.
15. Dayton (9-2) (19) – Given that I am often wrong, I will temporarily pat myself on the back for seeing their quality even after a 7th-place Maui finish.
16. Michigan (8-2) (12) – You won’t find a crazier game than their loss to Arkansas. Both teams looked like world-beaters at multiple times during the game.
17. Purdue (8-3) (13) – The Boilermakers are 2-1 against the SEC (and close to being 3-0).
18. Houston (6-3) (20) – While Iowa State is the only Top 10 offense & defense, the Cougars are close (11th offensively/3rd defensively).
19. San Diego State (7-2) (21) – The Mountain West is its typical “stacked” self. However, in 2024, that stacking is in the 40-55 range in the KenPom (four teams ranked in that area).
20. Gonzaga (7-3) (11) – The Kentucky and UConn losses were close and they are one of the unluckiest teams in the country. They have one more non-conference resume booster (UCLA).
21. Cincinnati (8-1) (23) – Their 312th-ranked schedule holds them down. A nice win over Xavier, however, with another Ohio rival coming up (Dayton).
22. Michigan State (8-2) (24) – Sometimes, one way to move up is by not playing. There isn’t much for the Spartans to worry about until the New Year (famous last words)
23. Memphis (8-2) (NR) – Anyone who bets on a Memphis Tigers game is a glutton for punishment. Home loss to Arkansas State followed by a road win over Clemson?
24. Mississippi State (9-1) (25) – It wasn’t pretty, but they hung on against McNeese. While McNeese is only 5-5, they have played Alabama and Mississippi State within single digits.
25. Illinois (7-3) (NR) – The Fighting Illini caused Tennessee to sweat.

Dropped Out:

Wisconsin (9-3) (18) – The Badgers stopped their 3-game losing streak with a win over Butler.
Clemson (9-2) (22) – Tough loss to Memphis. I was close to keeping them in the Top 25…

Just Missed:

Maryland (8-2) – The Terrapins didn’t play last week, making it hard for me to jump them into the Top 25.
Arkansas (9-2) – Another squad that just missed, the Razorbacks have a gauntlet to overcome once the calendar flips to 2025.
St. John’s (8-2) – The KenPom loves the Red Storm, which counts for something. I need to see a high-quality win.

We aren’t getting a clear picture yet of the “middle tier” of college basketball squads this year. That is why my Top 25 is ever-evolving.

Undefeated watch:

Even though we are relatively early in the season, we only have eight undefeated teams left:
Rhode Island (9-0)
Loyola-Chicago (8-0)
UC-Irvine (9-0)
Drake (8-0)
Utah State (9-0)
Florida (9-0)
Oklahoma (9-0)
Tennessee (8-0)

Let’s cross off the SEC squads (Florida, Oklahoma, Tennessee). There is zero chance those teams will remain unbeaten for long in that crazy league. While the Mountain West may be down this year, it is still competitive so cross Utah State off the list.

No team is going unbeaten, so I am trying to figure out who has the best chance to be the last unbeaten squad. UC-Irvine‘s schedule isn’t tough, but they must travel to Oregon State this week. Kansas State doesn’t stand out this year, but figures to be tough competition for Drake. 

The most fascinating options may be Rhode Island and Loyola-Chicago, neither of which has a rough road heading toward their 1/15 showdown. I don’t expect them both to be unbeaten, but it could be fun if one is.

Given the slates, I am predicting Loyola-Chicago to be the nation’s last undefeated team. Which means they won’t be.

Top 25:

1. Tennessee (8-0) (3) – One of only two teams in the top ten offensively and defensively, according to KenPom. While the schedule hasn’t been great, they are winning games by an average of 27 points.
2. Auburn (8-1) (1) – One of the top schedules amongst power schools, with the only blemish a 6-point road loss to Duke.
3. Florida (9-0) (4) – Those who want to see them play someone decent get their wish – the next two are against Arizona State and North Carolina.
4. Iowa State (7-1) (10) – The Cyclones are the other team with a top-ten offensive and defensive profile.
5. Kentucky (8-1) (5) – Being one of the few SEC teams to lose in the ACC – SEC Battle, they made up for it by beating Gonzaga.
6. Marquette (9-1) (6) – Like Kentucky, a 1-1 week against two good teams.
7. Duke (7-2) (15) – The top-ranked defensive squad owns a Top 20 schedule.
8. Alabama (7-2) (11) – They deserve a break in their schedule and will get one after their 12/14 game against Creighton.
9. Kansas (7-2) (2) – Securing road wins is hard. Kansas failed twice in this endeavor last week.
10. Oregon (9-1) (8) – Failed in their attempt to be the first to 10 wins.
11. Gonzaga (7-2) (7) – Brutal loss to Kentucky (blew an 18-point lead). Can they rebound against UConn?
12. Michigan (8-1) (18)—Coaching matters, as does having modern-day twin towers that can shoot from anywhere.
13. Purdue (8-2) (12) – Avoided a disastrous week with their comeback over Maryland. A solid schedule & offense. Defense needs work.
14. Texas A&M (8-2) (22) – The Aggies are stacking impressive early-season wins. The Central Florida loss is in the rearview mirror.
15. UCLA (8-1) (NR) – Last week, I said I wanted to see them against good competition. Beating Oregon qualifies.
16. Oklahoma (9-0) (19) – It’s too bad their ACC opponent was Georgia Tech, as it didn’t allow us to get more insight into how good they are. Their upcoming game with Michigan is fascinating.
17. UConn (7-3) (NR) – Nice wins over Baylor and Texas earn them a return to my Top 25. Gonzaga awaits. Elite offense, but the defense is barely in the Top 100.
18. Wisconsin (8-2) (9) – The Arizona and Pitt conquests have lost some luster.
19. Dayton (8-2) (23) – Fascinating squad. They knocked off one Big East power (UConn). Can they follow it up with a win over Marquette?
20. Houston (5-3) (20) – Their three losses (all to good competition) are by a combined 13 points.
21.  San Diego State (6-2) (NR) – One of those three losses was to San Diego State, who also owns a win over Creighton.
22. Clemson (9-1) (NR) – Who knew that the Tigers were going to be one of the teams to save the ACC from complete embarrassment in the ACC-SEC battle?
23. Cincinnati (7-1) (17) – The schedule is atrocious, but will improve.
24. Michigan State (8-2) (NR) – Began their Big Ten journey by beating Minnesota and Nebraska by a combined 55 points.
25. Mississippi State (8-1) (NR) – They didn’t just defeat Pittsburgh. They manhandled them.

Dropped Out:

Memphis (7-2) (13) – Impossible to ignore a home loss to Arkansas State.
Pittsburgh (8-2) (14) – That loss to Mississippi State was ugly. Perhaps I am being too harsh though…
Baylor (5-3) (16) – Their three losses are to good teams and they counteract that with some good wins. A lot of nitpicking in these rankings.
North Carolina (5-4) (21) – I am a firm believer in strong schedules. But you have to win some of those games.
Illinois (6-2) (24) – Like many of the others, I had to nitpick resumes near the bottom of the Top 25.
Drake (8-0) (25) – As I said last week, they were bound to fall out at some point as bigger schools started to rise.

Just Missed:

Creighton (7-3) – Outstanding win over Kansas places them back in the Top 25 discussion.
Arizona State (8-1) – A good week for the football squad. An unexpected hot start for the basketball squad.
Maryland (8-2) – The Terrapins were close to a massive road win over Purdue.

This time of year, there are two types of teams: those that played in a big non-conference tournament and those that didn’t. Separating the two is difficult, as the teams that decide not to play in one of the big tournaments have easier weeks than those who do. However, only one team can win the tournaments, so many good teams will suffer at least one loss. In the case of UConn, it was three losses.

I place major stock in the tournaments. It’s our early-season barometer. That doesn’t mean Oklahoma and Oregon jump to #1 and #2 in the country, but it does place them in my Top 25.

The Big East

After justified complaining over their NCAA Tournament representation last season, the Big East entered this season with high expectations. Thus far, only Marquette is living up to those expectations (DePaul is 7-0 but has played the second-worst schedule in the nation (only Missouri’s is worse). Seton Hall has losses to Fordham, Hofstra, and Monmouth. St. John’s has a solid computer profile but lost its highest-profile game (Baylor). The Red Storm has also fallen to Georgia. Only three squads reside in the KenPom Top 50, weakening the conference’s position come Selection Sunday if things don’t change. Without a solid mid-conference, high-profile wins are harder to come by. Further weakening their position is the ending of the Gavitt Tipoff games, eliminating the chance to get big wins over the Big Ten Conference. They will play the Big 12, however.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (7-0) (3) – Strong wins, top offense, top ten defense. What more can we ask for from the #1 squad?
2. Kansas (7-0) (1) – They did nothing wrong to deserve a demotion. Auburn just did more to receive a promotion.
3. Tennessee (7-0) (9) – One of the top teams not to play in a tournament, their 22-point road win over Louisville carries more weight now than it did then.
4. Florida (8-0) (15) – A massive boost for the Gators, who dominated the ESPN Invitational (admittedly, it wasn’t a strong field but we saw plenty of upsets elsewhere). Their average margin of victory is 22 points.
5. Kentucky (7-0) (6) – The Wildcats own that win over Duke, but it’s otherwise Cupcake City so far. Their SOS (KenPom) is 272.
6. Marquette (8-0) (14) – Georgia’s 7-1 start helps Marquette (Georgia’s only loss), and it doesn’t hurt that they mauled Purdue by 18.
7. Gonzaga (7-1) (4) – Tough loss to West Virginia but a combination of tough schedule, elite offense, and good defense keeps them in the Top 10.
8. Oregon (8-0) (NR) – The surprise winners of the inaugural Players Era Festival, Oregon didn’t take an easy path. They knocked off Texas A&M and Alabama to secure the crown.
9. Wisconsin (8-0) (13) – Who knew their win over Pitt would look better than beating Arizona?
10. Iowa State (5-1) (10) – Lost by only 2 to Auburn and won their final two games in Maui.
11. Alabama (6-2) (12) – I am giving them extra credit for their schedule, but the defense needs to improve.
12. Purdue (7-1) (18) – They bounced back from the 18-point loss to Marquette to take the Rady Children’s Invitational. Like Alabama, they are strong offensively but need defensive improvement.
13. Memphis (6-1) (20) – Ran into the buzzsaw known as Auburn in the title game in Maui. Before that, they knocked off UConn and Michigan State.
14. Pittsburgh (7-1) (NR) – There is a lot to like in their early-season profile. That true road win over Ohio State (on a miracle 3-pointer) will resonate later.
15. Duke (5-2) (7) – Kansas lost one of their best players due to a flagrant foul, but the Blue Devils couldn’t take advantage. They have played a solid Top 50 schedule and the KenPom ranks their defense as the best.  Can they conquer Auburn at home?
16. Baylor (5-2) (17) – Wins over St. John’s and Arkansas. Losses to Tennessee and Gonzaga. I think this is an appropriate ranking.
17. Cincinnati (6-0) (11) – How did an unbeaten team fall 6 spots? While others are challenging themselves, the Bearcats have one of the worst schedules in the country.
18. Michigan (6-1) (NR) – The Wolverines took care of business in the Fort Myers Tip-Off, knocking off previously-ranked Xavier.
19. Oklahoma (7-0) (NR) – The unexpected winners of the Battle 4 Atlantis, as they knocked off another surprising squad (Louisville) in the championship tilt.
20. Houston (4-3) (5) – The KenPom still loves them, as their “luck” ranking is amongst the worst in the country (5th unluckiest team in college basketball).
21. North Carolina (4-3) (8) – They survive in my Top 25 due to the closeness of their losses to tough competition. However, you have to start winning some of those contests.
22. Texas A&M (6-2) (NR) – The season-opening loss to UCF hurts them, but wins over Ohio State, Creighton, and Rutgers help their cause.
23. Dayton (6-2) (NR) – “How can you rank the 7th place team in Maui?” Easily. The Flyers could have easily been in the championship game (coulda, woulda, shoulda) before dismantling UConn in the 7th-place contest. This wasn’t your run-of-the-mill 7th-place finish.
24. Illinois (6-1) (NR) – The schedule leaves something to be desired, but they defeated Arkansas by 13 on a neutral court (lost to Alabama on a neutral court)
25. Drake (7-0) (23) – It will be hard for Drake to maintain a ranking unless they have a ridiculous season. Their schedule doesn’t support it. However, I will still give them credit for an early-season tournament win.

Dropped out:

UConn (5-3) (2) – The Huskies were handed the “easier” side of the bracket in Maui and fumbled the ball. Their schedule is awful, and Dan Hurley threatens to decline to play in these tournaments again. Grow up.
Indiana (5-2) (16) – Louisville might be a surprise team this season, but that is no excuse to lose by 28 on a neutral court. Indiana laid a giant egg in the Bahamas.
Arizona (3-4) (19)—The Battle 4 Atlantis tournament was wonky, and Arizona was a part of it, losing to Oklahoma and West Virginia.
Mississippi State (6-1) (21) – Losing to a Butler team that lost to Austin Peay is not a good look.
Xavier (7-1) (22) – They may not be ashamed of losing to Michigan, but the follow-up (3-point win over South Carolina State) raises questions.
Arkansas (5-2) (24) – Illinois humbled them and their offense has not clicked.
Creighton (5-3) (25) – Back-to-back-to-back losses to Nebraska, San Diego State, and Texas A&M knocks them out. They knocked off Notre Dame to finish 7th in the Players Era Festival.

Just Missed:

San Diego State (4-2) – Huge wins over Creighton and Houston place them on the cusp. Their losses are to Gonzaga and Oregon. As you may suspect, they have played one of the toughest schedules (3rd).
UCLA (6-1) – I had them ranked originally thanks to their incredible defensive ranking. However, I need to see them perform against tougher competition.
Arizona State (7-1) – Perhaps there is bias after hearing about Duke mauling them in a scrimmage. The Sun Devils lost to Gonzaga by only 8 in a true road game and defeated previously unbeaten St. Mary’s last time out.

This is always tough early in the season. You don’t want to penalize teams for random early-season losses, but you can’t ignore Rutgers losing to Kennesaw State.  Here is my first Top 25 of the season:

1. Kansas (5-0)
2. UConn (4-0)
3. Auburn (4-0) – Muscled up against Houston to beat them at their own game.
4. Gonzaga (5-0)
5. Houston (3-1)
6. Kentucky (5-0)
7. Duke (4-1) – Tough loss to Kentucky. Impressive win over Arizona. I am encouraged by their defensive effort.
8. North Carolina (3-1)—Their loss is better than Duke’s (Kansas), but they don’t have a win as impressive as Duke’s.
9. Tennessee (6-0) 
10. Iowa State (3-0)
11. Cincinnati (5-0)
12. Alabama (4-1)
13. Wisconsin (7-0) – Impressive comeback win over Pittsburgh to win the Greenbrier Tip-off.
14. Marquette (6-0)
15. Florida (6-0)
16. Indiana (4-0) – Is this the year where they establish Big Ten dominance? A big early test (the stacked Battle 4 Atlantis) may give us a clue.
17. Baylor (4-2) – The 38-point loss to Gonzaga in the season opener resonates for now. While it counts as much as any late-season game will, it shouldn’t define them.
18. Purdue (5-1)
19. Arizona (2-2)
20. Memphis (4-0) – They take their shot at UConn this afternoon.
21. Mississippi State (5-0)
22. Xavier (5-0)
23. Drake (6-0)—Early-season tournaments are fun, and winners should be rewarded. This Drake team has a new coaching staff and roster as they try to again be among the best in the Missouri Valley.
24. Arkansas (4-1)
25. Creighton (4-1)

Just Missed:

Nebraska (4-1) – Big in-state rivalry win over Creighton.
St. Mary’s (6-0): The Gaels defeated Nebraska. Nebraska beat Creighton. Yet, I rank Creighton ahead of both of them. Results matter, but I think Creighton is the best of the three.
Pitt (6-1) – Double-digit wins over West Virginia and LSU were impressive. They couldn’t hold the lead against Wisconsin.
Texas A&M (4-1) – Four straight wins (including over Ohio State) after an opening night loss to Central Florida.

Disappearing act:

No Mountain West team is listed above. This isn’t me protesting because they haven’t shown much (beyond San Diego State’s run to the title game) in recent NCAA Tournaments. Rather, no team has stood out early (Nevada is the conference’s best-ranked squad in the Pomroy, at 35th).  The Mountain West has five teams ranked 35th – 55th in the Pomroy, as the conference will again try to make it hard for the committee to separate them all when it is time to hand out bids.

 

 

My final field of 68 is below. Teams in bold and italics are the bubble squads.

If you don’t want to go through all of it, here is my bubble:
In: Dayton, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Texas A&M, TCU, Seton Hall
Out: St. John’s, Oklahoma, Virginia, Indiana State

This is not an easy bubble to sort through. You can find points and counterpoints for every team above. Seton Hall has a high NET. The Pirates also beat UConn and Marquette, went 2-1 against St. John’s, and played a 3-OT game against Creighton that had its share of controversy.
So, what works against them?  They didn’t play well in the non-conference. So, how do you weigh neutral court losses to Iowa and USC against going 13-7 in the Big East? Like every team, they could only play DePaul and Georgetown twice. Their other nine wins are quality.

Meanwhile, St. John’s has a better NET and a non-conference win over Utah. However, when it came to playing UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, they went 1-5 on top of their 1-2 mark against Seton Hall.  This is a case where Seton Hall, by a whisker, outshines St. John’s despite the Red Storm’s better NET.

Oklahoma and TCU required a similar scrub. Neither team played a strong non-conference slate. TCU has an extra Quad 1 win, a slightly better NET, and nine neutral/road wins (Oklahoma has six). Both teams could be in, but Oklahoma’s resume is not quite there.

Indiana State, in many years, would get heavy consideration. I don’t see them surviving all the weekend chaos. Dayton and Florida Atlantic? Let’s say that Florida Atlantic should thank the basketball gods for that win over Arizona. However, the Owls also defeated Texas A&M, a team that improved their resume late.

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Full field:

Atlantic Sun (1):
Auto: Stetson

America East (1):
Auto: Vermont

AAC (2):
Auto: UAB
In: Florida Atlantic
Out: South Florida

A-10 (2):
Auto: Duquesne
In: Dayton 

Atlantic Coast (4):
Auto: North Carolina State
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Out: Virginia, Wake Forest, Pitt

Big 12 (8)
Auto: Iowa State
In; Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas, Texas, TCU 
Out: Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Kansas State

Big East (4)
Auto: UConn
In: Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall
Out: St. John’s, Providence, Villanova, Butler

Big Sky (1)
Auto: Montana State

Big South (1)
Auto: Longwood

Big Ten (6)
Auto: Illinois
In: Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State
Out: Iowa, Ohio State

Big West (1)
Auto: Long Beach State

CAA (1)
Auto: Charleston

Conference USA (1)
Auto: Western Kentucky

Horizon (1)
Auto: Oakland

Ivy League (1)
Auto: Yale
Out: Princeton

Metro (1)
Auto: St. Peter’s

Mid-American (1)
Auto: Akron

MEAC (1)
Auto: Howard

Missouri Valley (1)
Auto: Drake
Out: Indiana State

Mountain West (6)
Auto: New Mexico
In: San Diego State, Nevada, Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State

Northeast (1)
Auto: Wagner

Ohio Valley (1)
Auto: Morehead State

Pac-12 (4)
Auto: Oregon
In: Arizona, Washington State, Colorado
Out: Utah

Patriot (1)
Auto: Colgate

SEC (8)
Auto: Auburn
In: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M 

Southern (1)
Auto: Samford

Southland (1)
Auto: McNeese

SWAC (1)
Auto: Grambling

Summit (1)
Auto: South Dakota State

Sun Belt (1)
Auto: James Madison

West Coast (2)
Auto: Saint Mary’s
In: Gonzaga

WAC (1)
Auto: Grand Canyon

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#1 seeds (in order):
UConn, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina

North Carolina over Arizona because:
– Nine Quad 1 wins (Arizona has eight)
– Zero Quad 3/4 losses (Arizona has one)

Arizona’s counterpoint:
– Better NET (4th vs. 7th)
– Better KenPom (6th vs. 9th)
– Better non-conference schedule

Arizona gets neutralized because one of their most impressive non-conference wins (road against Duke) is counteracted by North Carolina going 2-0 against Duke.

North Carolina over Iowa State because:
– The non-conference schedule ranking is absurd. No matter which computer you use, North Carolina’s non-conference schedule is approximately 300 places better than Iowa State’s. It’s a testament to how well Iowa State played in the Big 12 (plus winning the tournament) that they are even in a #1 seed conversation.

Iowa State’s counterpoint:
– 16 Quad 1 games (10-6). North Carolina had 12 (9-3)
– Won the Big 12 conference tournament. The Big 12 has widely been considered the best conference in basketball.
– Their two wins over Houston were of higher difficulty than North Carolina’s two wins over Duke.

The NET and KenPom rankings are close, with North Carolina a hair better in the NET and Iowa State a few hairs better in the KenPom.

This all comes down to whether the committee values a tougher non-conference schedule vs. the team that won the toughest conference.

I am going with the former.

 

 

 

History: Until 2017, the Ivy League awarded their automatic bid to the regular-season champions. In the five tournaments played starting in 2017 (remember, the 2020 and 2021 tournaments were canceled), Princeton and Yale have won two apiece. The other title went to Penn. Three champions entered the tournament as the #2 seed, while two entered as the #1 seed.

While the Ivy League has some history in the NCAA Tournament, last year’s Princeton squad was the first to win an NCAA Tournament game in the Ivy League Tournament Era. Cornell has never won the tournament, but their 2010 regular-season title catapulted them to the Sweet 16 as a #12 seed.

Returning Champion: Princeton

Losing the tie-breaker to Yale, the Tigers entered the tournament as the #2 seed. They defeated the Bulldogs by nine before pulling off a major NCAA Tournament upset, defeating Arizona in the 15-vs-2 game.

Format:  Four of the eight teams make the compressed field. With Brown earning the #4 seed this year, only two teams have never qualified: Dartmouth (at least they can unionize), and Columbia.

Favorite:  Princeton (24-3, 12-2)

The Tigers were in the early bubble discussion, but a pair of in-conference road losses shattered those dreams. However, their #48 NET ranking is better than South Carolina, Northwestern, Virginia, Utah, Ohio State, and Seton Hall. The KenPom ranks them 56th, and they have the 28th most efficient offense in the nation.

They didn’t play any Quad 1 games, though they did defeat Rutgers on a neutral court and Hofstra/Duquesne on the road. You may laugh at those two wins, but they are in Quad 2, while the Rutgers win sits in Quad 3. Two sophomores lead the way, as guard Xaivian Lee averages 17.7 points/5.9 rebounds/3.7 assists while forward Caden Pierce averages 16.3/9.3/3.2. They commit only 8.1 turnovers (362nd) and try to kill you with volume 3-point shooting (their 10.5 makes per game rank 9th).

If they are in the lead late, fouling them is nearly fruitless as they shoot 81.3% from the line, the second-best number in the nation.

Contenders: Cornell (22-6, 11-3), Yale (20-9, 11-3), Brown (12-17, 8-6)

Live Long Shot:  None, as only four teams make it.

Preview:

As dominant as Princeton may appear, Cornell and Yale each came within a game of matching them. The three top teams all split with each other. The tie-breaker for the #2 seed came down to computer rankings. Does it matter? No, as the tournament is played on a neutral court (Columbia). The tiebreaker is all about which team gets to wear their home uniforms.

Cornell played Syracuse within 11 on the road and defeated Patriot League juggernaut Colgate by 13 at home. Their win over Princeton (83-68) easily outshines their loss (79-77). While Princeton is as efficient as any team in the country, Cornell piles up the points (83.0; 16th). The Big Red has an incredible 62.7% rate from 2-point range, the top number in the nation. While only two players average double-digits, six players average 8.8+ points. Instead of a star, they are a collection of solid players. You can see why they are tough to beat.

Yale was pesky in the non-conference. One may not brag about a pair of 15-point losses, but they came on the road against Gonzaga and Kansas. The 2-vs-3 game against Cornell promises to be good, as they defeated Cornell by two and lost to them by three. Five players average between 10.0 and 14.4 points. 7’0″ sophomore forward Danny Wolf averages 14.4 points/9.7 rebounds. Additionally, the big guy shoots 35.7% from three.

Brown is the misfit in the field, but don’t tell them that. Percentage-wise, they have the third-worst record in the conference, but they cruised to the #4 seed by three games over Harvard.  They finished the regular season on a 6-game winning streak. They defeated Cornell and Yale on the road during the streak. Yes, one of the reasons why Cornell and Yale couldn’t keep up with Princeton was because they lost to Brown.  Kino Lilly is an Ivy League scoring machine, averaging 18.4 points. He relies on volume, as he shoots 38.6% from the field.

Bottom Line:

Brown is hot but didn’t fare well against their first-round opponent (Princeton). The hard way to choose the winner would be to “guess” who wins the Cornell-Yale game and pick them to dethrone Princeton.

Winner: Why not be daring? I pick Cornell to defeat Yale and Princeton to take the title.