My Take: The End of the Camilo Doval Era

The trade:

The Yankees acquire C Omar Alfonzo and OF Luis Cruz from the Pirates for RHP Camilo Doval

The Yankees rarely make trades for prospects alone for Major League talent. While the Andrew Miller trade comes to mind, even the Aroldis Chapman move included Adam Warren coming back.  Last year, they made what looked like a minor deal by acquiring Wilberson De Pena for Oswald Peraza.  There is still a long way to go for De Pena, but he’s already a success story.

What the Pirates get:

Doval is an enigma. His cutter, which looks like a pitch nobody should be able to hit, consistently gets knocked around the park due to poor command of the pitch. It makes no sense to scrap it, but without command, it sails harmlessly into the strike zone, begging for a bat to take it out of its misery. The average exit velocity off of him this season is 90 MPH.

I loved the deal when the Yankees made it because Doval’s stuff is great when its on. However, it is rarely on and it leads to stuff like a 4.54 ERA and under a strikeout per inning. He’s never been one with great control, but the tanking of his strikeout rate this season stands out.

The Pirates are gaining a reliever who still generates a lot of ground balls (56.3%).  They hope he starts missing bats again. He’s not a bad fit for their bullpen as they try to win a Wild Card berth. A reliever like Doval is capable of going on a 2-month run of excellence.

What the Yankees get:

The Yankees need catching prospects. Alfonzo fits that bill, though there are warts. Interestingly enough, the Pirates built up their catching depth last year by acquiring Rafael Flores and Edgleen Perez from the Yankees in the David Bednar trade. Using the Pipeline list (not the only list in town, but convenient), Perez is ranked 8th, Flores is ranked 14th, and Alfonzo was ranked 17th. Alfonzo was expendable.

The 22-year-old left-handed hitter (don’t worry about that) has played in 60 games for the Pirates’ Double-A squad in Altoona, hitting .239/.338/.420 (100 wRC+) with nine home runs and 30 RBI. He has solid plate discipline, but the strikeout rate is high (30%). However, everything you read about him talks about the power potential. Can he fully tap into that?  Additionally, the Yankees will need to put him through catching bootcamp, as he grades out poorly behind the plate. Say what you want about the Yankees’ development system (I’ve said it myself), but one thing they are good at is improving a catcher’s defense.  Is it possible they acquired Alfonzo to flip him in a trade for an established MLB catcher? Sure. I doubt that is the case, however.

The Yankees have been linked to Hunter Goodman of the Rockies. The ceiling for Alfonzo is not exactly Goodman, who was mashing home runs in Double-A while Alfonzo still leans more “raw power” than “game power.”  It’s stil an interesting comparison. Perhaps a poor man’s Goodman?  That would still be a solid MLB catcher if that ceiling is reached. Both have defensive concerns.

Like De Pena, the 18-year-old Cruz is a long-term lottery ticket. Signed by the Pirates in 2025 for an undisclosed bonus (which means he cost peanuts), Cruz has hit .264/.420/.338 in 195 DSL plate appearances. He has yet to hit a professional home run. He has walked more than he has struck out.

While I call him a lottery ticket like De Pena, some lottery tickets have better odds than others.

Sometimes, a team has interest in a player from a young age and targets them when a trade like this comes up. That could be the case with Cruz. However, that doesn’t make him a prospect. His journey will be so long that AI baseball players may already be on rosters before he is ready.

Bottom Line:

Did the Yankees give up more for Doval than what they acquired for him?  Yes. Jesus Rodriguez is back up in MLB with the Giants, where he is hitting .235/.316/.412 (105 OPS+) over 58 plate appearances. If you tell me that isn’t much to go on, you are right.   Parks Harber continues to rake in the minors. This year, he is hitting .299/.379/.513 with 14 home runs for Double-A/Triple-A. He is crushing it in 13 Triple-A games, though the PCL Sacramento angle is worth mentioning. Trystan Vrieling recently pitched against the Patriots and is having a meh campaign. He owns a 4.22 ERA (5.49 FIP) and unsightly 19.7% K/14.6% BB rates. Carlos De La Rosa, the lottery ticket, posted a 6.55 ERA in 44 innings for the Giants’ ACL (equivalent to the FCL) squad.

While I answered “Yes” to the question, it isn’t obvious. Rodriguez being in MLB instantly makes it better. That changes if Rodriguez/Harber become little to nothing while Alfonzo ascends. It’s a wait-and-see, like all trades.

Overall, I don’t mind the trade. Doval moved down the pecking order, and the Yankees will try to replace him. First up, it’s Yovanny Cruz. You know Cruz’s story:  Throws extremely hard, is working on a splitter, and his walk rate needs improvement. He’s at least here for a few days while the Yankees explore other options.

 



category : Minor League Reports, Yankees

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