My Take: Thoughts on Keith Law & Prospects

There was a time in my life when I was anti-Keith Law. I wasn’t a fan of his rankings or takes.

A few years ago, I decided to take a deeper look into why.  Why is it that everyone downplays what Law says while propping up Baseball America, Fangraphs, Pipeline, etc?  It dawned on me:  People didn’t like Law because he was willing to go with a “tell it like it is” approach instead of trusting highlight reels that make you think every top prospect is hitting .650 or striking out 15 batters per game.

Flaws exist for everyone. It doesn’t matter if you are Aaron Judge or Roderick Arias. I am not in the business of talking poorly about kids who are just trying to make a living in the sport. The worst prospect in baseball is better than 99% of the population. I appreciate the Max Burt types who toil in the minors forever, hoping for that one shot to live their dream. I was a card-carrying member of the “Free Colter Bean” club. Heck, I remember being mad when the Yankees called up Taylor Dugas for a day or two, but didn’t get him into a game. He was never called up again.

However, bashing Law for thinking more outside the box than your typical prospect evaluator doesn’t make sense. I used to do it myself, to the point where I disregarded most of what he said. It was stupid, because I realized that what he was saying made sense. It isn’t that he is always right or wrong, because nobody is. It’s more than I started trusting his insights more.

So, with that, Law listed only two Yankees’ prospects in his Top 100:  George Lombard Jr. (everyone will list him) and Carlos Lagrange (I expect everyone will rank him as well).  He did not rank Dax Kilby or Elmer Rodriguez. Both appeared on the Pipeline 100.

Which leads me to another point:  When you get to the bottom of these lists, you can have 50-60 prospects for 15-20 slots. I know this because when I do a Yankees’ Top 30, I go crazy when I get to spots 25-30. I have a list of prospects in my Notes app to choose from, and personal preference takes over. It is possible that Rodriguez is #101 and Kilby is #115. You are splitting hairs in this range.  I don’t fret over whether Cooper Pratt (#99, Brewers) is better than Kilby or Seth Hernandez (#100, Pirates) is more deserving than Rodriguez. It’s not worth it. By the way, Rodriguez and Hernandez are on opposite sides of the spectrum, as one (Rodriguez) is close to making his MLB debut while the other (Hernandez) has yet to throw a professional pitch. Impossible to compare, so you go with your instincts.

He noted Lombard Jr.’s solid bat speed, which should ease some concerns about his velocity issues in Double-A. One thing he wrote that resonated with me:  If Lombard Jr. spent more time in High-A and received fewer plate appearances in Double-A, there wouldn’t be as much fear right now.  It is backwards thinking, right?  A young prospect does so well that an organization has no choice but to bump him up. He struggles upon that promotion (which hardly anyone predicted would happen that quickly), and people start to panic. Relax. It’s a long process.

I agree with his notation that Lagrange is in a better spot now than Dellin Betances ever was as a starting pitcher. The comparisons make sense: Both are big kids with electric arms. However, Lagrange has the early polish that Betances didn’t possess.

Overall, I have no issues with the list. He has a 19-year-old phenom, Konnor Griffin, first. That will be a consensus across the industry. Saying he is the most exciting prospect since Mike Trout raised an eyebrow, but there is no denying how awesome Griffin has played.

If you are wondering about former Yankees on the list, there’s only one:  OF Kevin Alcantara, traded for Anthony Rizzo, is 41st. If it feels like Alcantara has been around forever, you aren’t alone. Heck, the Rizzo trade was five years ago this July. It’s time for Alcantara to put his stamp on a Major League career.

Bottom Line:

Take in all the information to draw your conclusions. Only believing what you want to hear is not prudent. I will resist the temptation to add a comma and place a political notation after that. Law’s opinions are just as valid as anyone else’s in prospect circles.