My Take: Yankees Re-Sign Cody Bellinger
November 3, 2025: Cody Bellinger opts out of his contract, turning down $20 million (he received $5 million for opting out).
November 4, 2025 – January 20, 2026: Rumors persist that Bellinger is the Yankees’ #1 target. No rumors suggest that anyone else is seriously interested. To be exact, Jon Heyman had to bring out an old Scott Boras favorite: The existence of “mystery teams” that Boras invented in his head. “Baseball is expanding to Salt Lake City in ten years – Cody is willing to wait it out.”
On Tuesday night, the Mets announced the acquisition of super athlete Luis Robert Jr., which took away a good bluffing tool for the Bellinger camp.
Later Wednesday, Jeff Passan claimed (and I won’t doubt Passan) that Bellinger was offered one of those hip “short-term, high AAV” deals from at least one other organization.
All this doesn’t matter because the Yankees were never budging off of five years. Bluffs only work if the other side is willing to fold. If other offers existed, the Yankees were willing to move on.
I have no issues with this contract. Is it an overpay? If Bellinger repeats what he did in 2025, the answer is a resounding no. I understand he doesn’t hit well away from Yankee Stadium. Within the division in 2025, he struggled in Fenway Park and Camden Yards, but hit well in Rogers Center and Steinbrenner Field. If you are wondering about Tropicana Field, the sample size is too small for any conclusions. In 2024, he went 5-for-13 with a double and a home run. Anything before 2023 is irrelevant, as it was a different version of Bellinger.
Is there a possibility that he can improve his road splits? Yes. Bellinger has a contact approach everywhere, and it isn’t too crazy to think he can hit into some BABIP luck. In 2025, his road BABIP was .255 while his home number was .291. BABIP isn’t the end-all, be-all, but this shows you that his home numbers weren’t due to insane good luck, but at least some of his road struggles can be attributed to a little bit of bad luck.
“The Yankees are doing nothing more than running back their 2025 lineup!”
I can’t argue against this, but it comes with an assumption: That every player will play the same way as they did in 2025. I won’t convince you that everyone will be better, nor can anyone claim that the lineup will crash and burn. I will also add that this claim only pertains to the final roster. The Yankees acquired Ryan McMahon, Amed Rosario, and Jose Caballero in July. While McMahon didn’t hit, his defense was above-average. Caballero, meanwhile, was a meaningful bench piece. His on-base percentage vs. LHP could place him at the top of the lineup against southpaws to start the year.
It may not be exciting to keep a similar lineup, but how many fanbases complain about bringing back an offense that led Major League Baseball in runs while finishing eighth in batting average, second in on-base percentage, and first in slugging percentage?
Some red flags exist. The Yankees received above-average production from Paul Goldschmidt for much of the first half in 2025, which helped them make up for the loss of Giancarlo Stanton. Nobody in their right mind will project a full season out of Stanton, so can the roster make up for the loss of their designated hitter for a significant portion of the season? The Yankees’ left side of the infield projects to be below-average offensively, and we are still waiting on a possible Austin Wells breakout with the bat. Wells and/or Jasson Dominguez (assuming the Yankees find playing time for him) taking a step forward can be significant, as can better luck for Ben Rice.
This all adds up to me hoping the Yankees remain engaged in the right-handed hitting outfielder market. They can platoon Trent Grisham in center field by either moving Bellinger there against a left-handed pitcher or adding a right-handed bat who can handle center field. Austin Hays remains available, but is he ready to assume the wrong side of the platoon role? We know Rosario has come to grips with this reality.
“How about the pitching?”
The Yankees don’t lack rotation depth, but the Opening Day rotation has question marks under Max Fried. They are relying on Cam Schlittler‘s continued development, improvement from Will Warren, and the health of Ryan Weathers and Luis Gil. It is like pulling a lever and hoping that four cherries come up. While someone has to hit the jackpot, the odds aren’t great. Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn provide veteran depth, while Elmer Rodriguez is the readiest of a prospect pool that includes Carlos Lagrange, Ben Hess, and Chase Hampton
One possibility came off the board Wednesday night, when the Mets acquired Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers from the Brewers for prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. Both prospects were ranked in the Top 100 before 2025, with Sproat making his MLB debut (four starts). Williams is a fun prospect with plenty of speed and versatility. The Mets have played him at second base, shortstop, and center field in his minor league career. While he dominated in Double-A Binghamton in 2025, his numbers for Triple-A Syracuse were lacking.
I have been a fan of acquiring Peralta this winter, given his consistent success over the past several seasons. However, the Mets made a very good offer, and I am not sure if the Yankees could have matched it.
The pitching market is drying up. MacKenzie Gore may still be available. Gore is somewhere between Weathers and Peralta. He doesn’t have Peralta’s consistent results, but he is more established than Weathers.
The free agent market includes a pair of pitchers (Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen) who have qualifying offers attached to them. Lucas Giolito was an underrated member of the 2025 Red Sox, but missed the postseason due to an elbow injury. Chris Bassitt has started 30+ games for four straight years, compiling a 3.77 ERA (4.01 FIP) over 723 innings. Given his age, a long-term commitment is not required.
If you want to argue that nobody who is rumored to be available (and may interest the Yankees) is a significant enough upgrade to target, that’s a valid point. Peralta was one of the few who made sense to me.
As for the bullpen, the Yankees may enter 2026 with a feeling of “Let’s see what we have, and adjust accordingly.” That strategy didn’t pay off well in 2025, as “adjusting accordingly” equated to three trades for relief pitching at the deadline. That outcome is the outlier, however. Have the Yankees lost their “build a bullpen using scrap metal” touch, or was 2025 a random year where things just didn’t come together?
Bottom Line:
The Yankees got Bellinger on their terms. While Boras squeezed a little extra money out of Hal Steinbrenner, he did not receive the longer-term deal he craved for his client. Hence, he had to negotiate perks like opt-outs and a no-trade clause.
I understand this hasn’t been an exciting winter, but it’s not a failure. The Yankees didn’t have many holes to fill in the lineup, and that is reflected in their action (or lack thereof). “You stupid Cashman defenders annoy me!” I am not a Cashman defender. But it is easy to see the reality of the situation. Barring trading a lineup asset to acquire something else, then signing a free agent to take the place of the asset you traded, what were they going to do? If you want to argue against the Grisham qualifying offer, I am with you on that. But doing that meant no center fielder. As good as Bellinger is defensively, he didn’t grade well in center field in 2025. Neither did Grisham, but we hope it was due to an injury. Bleh.
I have no issue with a similar lineup, even if it may not be exciting. The Yankees have to start developing more bats, however. We have seen the hype surrounding Dax Kilby, and I hope he progresses in 2026. George Lombard Jr. needs to hit more in Double-A. I think he will, but we have to see it happen, right? Spencer Jones maintains his massive boom/bust potential. While they have a lot of pitching depth that allows for some failure, their position players have a smaller margin for error.
The Yankees are going to be one of the favorites to win the American League. That doesn’t mean they will. But, just like in 2025, the rest of the field is not scaring me. I am not quivering in fear over Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez. And I don’t expect Red Sox or Blue Jays fans to run in fear over the sight of Ryan Weathers and Will Warren.
As a sidenote, the Yankees recently signed veteran first baseman/outfielder Seth Brown to a minor league contract.
The left-handed hitting Brown has little (no) defensive value, and his offensive value is tied to his home run production. Once the home runs started disappearing from his profile, so did his value. He went from 45 home runs in 261 games between 2021 and 2022 to 29 home runs in 274 games since. There are likely opt-outs in his contract. If he wishes to stick around beyond Spring Training, he’ll provide depth in Scranton.