Yankees: Thoughts on Cody Bellinger and Next Steps
Is the Cody Bellinger story over? In a report by Buster Olney, he claims that the Yankees and Bellinger have reached an impasse, and the Yankees’ front office expects him to sign elsewhere.
There’s been plenty of Bellinger chatter this winter, so I wouldn’t assume the negotiations are over.
However, if Bellinger can do better than the reported five-year, $150M offer the Yankees have on the table, the Yankees are likely not inclined to get into a bidding war.
Bellinger knows the market. Alex Bregman secured a five-year, $175 million deal with significant deferrals, and Bellinger can justify asking for something in that range. Additionally, he is asking for more years, even though five years is the going rate for free agent position players. So far, the Yankees have avoided playing the deferral game to such an extent that it feels like organizational policy.
Two free agents are being floated around as replacements for Bellinger. The first name (Kyle Tucker) is a simple solution (if we forget about the money). The second name (Bo Bichette) forces the Yankees to get creative with the rest of their roster.
Yes, there is a third path: Finding a right-handed hitting outfielder and having him platoon with Jasson Dominguez. That’s where a name like Austin Hays enters the conversation.
The biggest flaw with these plans is what these players cannot do. Namely, play center field. I never want to see Aaron Judge in center field again. The Yankees themselves have made it clear that Dominguez is not suited for it.
Here is a more detailed look at the possibilities. For this exercise, I am not going down the “run prevention” path, which would add pitchers to this list.
Free Agents:
If you don’t care about money, Tucker is the perfect player for the Yankees. While Bellinger was a beast in Yankee Stadium, Tucker can be even better with the bonus of hitting on the road. Bellinger hit .241/.301/.414 away from the Bronx in 2025. Tucker, meanwhile, struggled in Wrigley Field (.236/.353/.395) while hitting at an elite level elsewhere (.292/.399/.524). Interestingly, Tucker hasn’t hit well in Yankee Stadium in his career. It is a small sample size (68 plate appearances), and it was against Yankees pitchers. It would shock me if Tucker signed and hit poorly in Yankee Stadium.
Tucker is one of the most consistent performers in the league. He cleared 5.0 bWAR from 2021 to 2023 and was on pace to clear 9.0 bWAR in 2024. fWAR was less bullish due to his defensive metrics, but there isn’t any doubt that Tucker is going to be a big upgrade for somebody. Last season showed a downturn in his offense, but there was a reason for that. He missed half of the 2024 season after fouling a ball off his shin and played through a fractured hand in 2025. These injuries are flukes and shouldn’t be a concern.
The biggest negative is his defensive position. From 2018 to 2020, 72 of his 108 games were played in left field. From 2021 to 2025, all but four of his games have been played in right field. The other four games were played in center field in 2021. A move back to left field probably wouldn’t be a big deal, but in Yankee Stadium, it will take getting used to.
Bichette will require the Yankees to move around chess pieces. If he could play shortstop, I would have written 1.4 million entries this winter about how stupid it would be for the Yankees to pass. No amount of wishful thinking will magically turn him into an acceptable defensive shortstop. Hence, he must move elsewhere, and his lack of arm strength makes second base the most likely destination.
Like Tucker, Bichette has struggled at Yankee Stadium. Unlike Tucker, I’m not confident he could overcome that.
Assuming he can, however, there is no doubt he can hit. Even if we include his disastrous 2024 campaign, he is a career .294/.337/.469 hitter with a 5.7% BB and 19.4% K. In 2025, he posted a .311/.357/.483 (134 wRC+) line in 628 plate appearances.
Like Bellinger, Bichette is not a big bat speed guy, which will limit his power ceiling. That said, he hit 29 home runs in 2021, before Baseball Savant started tracking bat speed. That is where the similarities with Bellinger end, however. While Bellinger has a lot of “blue” in his Savant profile, Bichette swims in a sea of red.
Back to the position: First, the Yankees will need to shell out a big contract to secure his services. Then, they must determine how to configure the defense. Do they look to deal Jazz Chisholm Jr., one of the best second basemen in baseball? I have seen the suggestion to move him to center field, where he had some success with the Marlins (a fun fact you may have forgotten: he made his Yankees’ debut in center field, but has played only one game there since.)
Trading Chisholm would be the easiest solution, but it is a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist. He compiled 4.4 fWAR, thanks to his combination of power, baserunning, and defense. While Bichette is a good hitter who makes more contact than Jazz, he was worth 3.8 fWAR despite playing a more valuable position. It’s also impossible to conclude that Bichette will be good defensively at second base.
I would be intrigued by the “Chisholm goes to the outfield” idea. He is a better player than Trent Grisham, who would find himself in the left field/backup outfielder mix in this scenario.
“From Bellinger, Tucker, and Bichette to Hays? I am never spending money on chicken buckets ever again!”
I am not about to argue that Hays is better than that trio, because I would be an idiot to suggest that.
Hays hit a respectable .266/.315/.453 (105 wRC+) with 15 home runs in 103 games for the Cincinnati Reds in 2025. While that isn’t special for a corner outfielder, people are more intrigued by his split against left-handed pitching, where he hit .319/.400/.549 (155 wRC+) in 105 plate appearances. In his career, he has hit .282/.340/.479 (124 wRC+) over 807 plate appearances. When you combine that with Jasson Dominguez‘s numbers against right-handed pitching (.274/.348/.420 (116 wRC+)), you have an acceptable offensive left fielder. Note that I didn’t say the combination is elite, especially when you factor in Dominguez’s defensive issues.
Hays would be vastly cheaper than the top free agents. A low-cost, slightly above-average platoon in left field might sound appealing to the Yankees, but you get what you pay for.
Hayes would be better served as a backup with a better lead cast.
Trade Possibilities:
After the Cubs signed Alex Bregman, the Hoerner rumors started to make the rounds. That makes sense, as Hoerner is entering the final year of his contract, and the Cubs can slide Matt Shaw over to second base after a tough rookie season at third (.226/.295/.394).
In his minor league career, Shaw played 90 games at third, 44 at shortstop, and 34 at second base.
Like Bichette, Hoerner is a high-contact guy. He doesn’t have as much power as Bichette, but he is legitimately one of the toughest hitters to strike out in baseball. In 2025, he was one of five qualified MLB players to strike out less than 10% of the time, joining Luis Arraez, Jacob Wilson, Steven Kwan, and old friend Caleb Durbin. He has speed (29-for-35 stealing bases) and is elite defensively at second base (+14 OAA; +17 DRS). For comparison, Chisholm posted a +8 OAA and +2 DRS.
Additionally, adding Hoerner gives you coverage at shortstop. While Bichette is a disaster, Hoerner is a legitimate defensive shortstop. He was more than serviceable in 2022, when he compiled a +13 OAA and +10 DRS in 1,117.2 innings. The only reason he moved was that the Cubs added elite defensive shortstop Dansby Swanson to their roster.
While the same “fixing a problem that doesn’t exist” statement applies, Hoerner’s defensive prowess makes him more appealing. The Yankees likely wouldn’t be reluctant to play him at shortstop, freeing up Jose Caballero to play a utility role, strengthening the bench. What happens when Anthony Volpe returns? There’s an adage about crossing bridges.
That said, the Cubs are in it to win it. They can easily go with a Hoerner-Swanson-Bregman infield, while using Shaw as a Swiss Army knife for a year. After that, he can slide into second base while Hoerner explores free agency.
If he becomes available, it becomes a question of prospects over money. While the Cubs are building up a World Series-contending roster, their farm system is not highly regarded. They may not be seeking immediate help, which works in the Yankees’ favor as they can leverage their deep system to create a package that aids the Cubs in rebuilding their farm.
There isn’t any indication that the offensively-challenged Guardians are looking to move Kwan, but it is worth exploring the possibility.
Kwan is a top defensive player with outstanding contact skills (as mentioned above), though his overall offensive game is inconsistent. In his four MLB seasons, his wRC+ numbers are 125, 99, 131, and 99. The good news is that he is never bad. The bad news is that 99 is not what you want from a corner outfielder.
One issue is that Jose Ramirez has expressed some displeasure with the offense surrounding him. According to Roster Resource, the two hitters surrounding Ramirez in the 2026 lineup are George Valera and Kyle Manzardo. While Manzardo hit 27 home runs in 2025, his line was .234/.313/.455 (113 wRC+), hardly good for a 1B/DH. Valera has 16 games of Major League experience under his belt. Top prospects Travis Bazzana (2B; 17th in baseball, according to Pipeline), Chase DeLauter (OF; 58th), and Angel Genao (SS; 59th) are hoping to make some noise this season. MLB Pipeline estimates 2026 as their ETA.
The Yankees aren’t going to be able to overwhelm Cleveland with nearly-ready positional prospects unless they are impressed with Spencer Jones. It’s a tough sell, and I don’t see this move happening.
Doyle had a tough start to his 2025 campaign. This was understandable, given that he and his wife, Rose, learned that their future child no longer had a heartbeat during a routine checkup. His second-half numbers (.287/.312/.467) were encouraging and perhaps point to him tapping into his offensive potential.
Doyle is a legitimate center fielder (something other candidates cannot claim) with power and speed. While his overall offensive game is questionable, he can at least make for a solid 4th outfielder. He isn’t historically special against left-handed pitchers, but he was strong in 2025.
There is a new regime in place for the Rockies, led by Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes. Byrnes was hired away from the Dodgers’ organization this winter, while DePodesta was 31 years old when the Dodgers hired him as a General Manager in 2004. His long, strange journey includes a stint with the Cleveland Browns before returning to baseball this winter.
That makes it difficult to gauge how the Rockies value their current roster, or what it might take to acquire Doyle, who still has several years of team control.
The Rockies can use … well, everything.
When discussing the 2026 trade market, Donovan has to be part of the conversation as the Cardinals are working to reset their entire organization.
A left-handed bat with versatility (experience at every position other than pitcher, catcher, and center field), Donovan hit .287/.353/.422 with ten home runs in 118 games in 2025. He is the definition of a WYSIWYG player, as his wRC+ numbers over his four-year career are 127, 118, 115, and 119. His defense is steady, though far from elite.
While he is likely better than Dominguez in left field, that is hardly an endorsement. You are acquiring a player who can fake almost every position while providing some offense. There is plenty of value in a player who does that, as his 6.1 fWAR from 2024 to 2025 attests.
Like many others on my list, he is tough to strike out. In 2025, he struck out at a 13% clip, and while he doesn’t possess elite speed, you can justify using him in the leadoff spot.
Names like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Byron Buxton are pure fantasy. Even if Buxton were available, the extreme cost for one of the most injury-prone players in baseball would make it hard to find a suitable match.
Prospects
This will be a group of one, as the Yankees don’t have another outfield prospect ready to contribute. It’s fair to question Jones’ readiness to contribute.
His power potential is off the charts, and he can combine that with elite athleticism that allows him to handle center field and steal bases.
That said, the swing-and-miss is something nobody can ignore. It has dropped him in prospect rankings despite the 35 home runs and 29 stolen bases he compiled in 2025. Experts can’t get around the 35.4% strikeout rate, and it’s hard to blame them. If we eliminate rookie league players (which you should do), it was the 9th-worst strikeout rate in minor league baseball. His Swinging Strike Percentage was the 10th worst. While I haven’t studied those who are worse, I guess that at least some of them aren’t in top prospect conversations.
Bottom Line:
Paths for the Yankees exist, with and without Bellinger. I have wanted Tucker since Day 1, and he would remain my top choice. As much as I value Bichette’s bat, I’m not convinced he’s an ideal fit for this roster, unless you make a bold move like shifting Jazz to center field or trading him for a starting pitcher.
My second choice would be Hoerner, which might surprise you given what I just said about Bichette.
He’s not a perfect fit either, but I have confidence in his ability to play shortstop. Brian Cashman talks often about giving Aaron Boone a flexible roster, and Hoerner helps accomplish that. By the time Volpe is ready to contribute, who knows how the roster will look? If you are a lover of contact and speed, not many can claim to be as good as Hoerner.
I get it – in this market, Tucker can justify looking for nearly $40 million a season. Do I care? Not really. He is the perfect hitter to use side-by-side with Judge. While he isn’t Juan Soto (a ridiculous bar to try to hit), he has the offensive chops to be a monster.
Where do I think the Yankees end up? Probably with something not-so-exciting. I can see them looking for a right-handed 4th outfielder to use with Dominguez, hoping his offense catches fire. My hesitation remains: If they were targeting Bellinger heavily, what does that say about how they feel about Dominguez (and Jones)? Those feelings don’t just disappear because Bellinger is out of the picture.