Yankees Notes and Opinions for 12/2
Other off-season pieces:
11/28/25
11/25/25
11/18/25
11/15/25
11/7/25
10/30/25
Japanese Free Agents
Rule 5 Primer
1. Devin Williams to the Mets (3 years/$50M)
Hours after securing a casino deal, Steve Cohen placed his first big bet by throwing a ton of money at a reliever coming off an uneven season.
I have written many times, going back several weeks, that I wouldn’t mind if the Yankees re-signed Devin. He is a good bounce-back candidate, though my mantra that we shouldn’t just ignore the conventional statistics remains. Are we just going to ignore the times he blew up on the mound and say he was mostly “unlucky”? Call me old school, but I can’t accept that.
As for what this means for Edwin Diaz, it’s hard to say. Williams has his big contract and isn’t looking at a Hall of Fame closer career. In other words, does he care if he is a setup guy instead of a closer?
Williams joins Ryan Helsley on the list of relievers being paid good money based on what teams think he can be instead of what he was. Helsley was bad for the Mets after they acquired him. The best I can say about Williams is that he was up-and-down.
What does this mean for the Yankees? Likely not much, unless they are thinking of dipping into the high-end market, which still includes Diaz, Robert Suarez, and Brad Keller. Rubber-armed Tyler Rogers may intrigue, but he is far from a power arm.
Keller has some Luke Weaver in him – a failed starter who suddenly blossomed out of the bullpen. It’s fair to question whether 2025 was an outlier that will be difficult for him to replicate.
There are still plenty of arms available, including some potential trade options. I am not discouraged that the Yankees have yet to find one.
2. The Yankees are interested in Sandy Alcantara
In the least shocking rumor thus far, the Yankees are reportedly interested in a Marlins pitcher! We have heard these rumors for years.
Alcantara is often seen as the big fish, although we’ve also seen Edward Cabrera rumors in the past.
I will get this out of the way: Alcantara wasn’t good in 2025. bWAR was especially down on him (0.1), though fWAR was more forgiving (1.7). Numbers-wise, he was 11-12 with a 5.36 ERA (4.28 FIP) over 174.2 innings with a 19.1% K, 7.7% BB, and 46.5% GB.
Those numbers probably don’t encourage you, but it was his first taste of action since 2023, as he missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery. Most of his bad 2025 performances occurred early, as he compiled an 8.31 ERA in April and an 8.64 ERA in May. Everything improved across the board in the second half compared to the first.
As for his contract, he has one guaranteed year left on his deal ($17.3 million). However, there is a reasonable $21 million team option for 2027. His contract also includes a $1 million trade bonus.
What would the Yankees need to give up? A good pitcher with two years of control won’t be cheap. The Marlins will likely ask about Spencer Jones and one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects. Add in a low-level “deal sweetener,” and you have yourself the makings of a good package. You have to be prepared for a Jasson Dominguez ask.
Bottom Line:
I like Alcantara. I wish he struck out more batters, but he is more of a ground baller who keeps the walk rate down. I am willing to ignore his overall 2025 performance. It takes time to find your rhythm, even when your Tommy John rehab is complete.
3. Baseball America talks up Dax Kilby
Included in the list of the Yankees’ Top Ten prospects, Baseball America did a best tools blurb. 2025 draftee Dax Kilby was placed at the top of the best hitter, fastest baserunner, and best athlete tools. This was enough to rank Kilby third, behind only George Lombard Jr. and Elmer Rodriguez.
Kilby’s first 18 professional games couldn’t have gone much better. He hit .353/.457/.441 in 81 plate appearances with a 16% BB and 13.6% K. Additionally, he stole 16 bases in 17 attempts.
It is too early to make any proclamations about his future. It doesn’t appear he is a long-term shortstop, though they didn’t play him anywhere else. We will likely see him play a few different positions in 2026, because that is what teams do with prospects. Not many questions about Lombard Jr.’s ability to play shortstop, but he is still asked to play some second and third base.
As for him being ranked 3rd, there are two ways to look at that:
- He progressed so rapidly that Baseball America had no choice but to push him near the top.
- The Yankees’ system isn’t strong, so a draftee getting off to a hot start was able to take a giant leap on their list.
The Yankees’ farm system made noticeable strides in 2025, and Cam Schlittler’s rapid ascent to the majors was a huge win. That said, I think it lacks a true superstar-level prospect. I am hoping for Lombard Jr. to provide us with one in 2026. Kilby being third can be seen as a warning signal. He only has 81 plate appearances, after all. That shouldn’t dampen our excitement about what seems to be an up-and-coming prospect.
Bottom Line:
Because the Yankees had the gall to spend money, MLB punished them by dropping their first-round pick to 39th. It feels like poetic justice if they end up with a future All-Star—someone they might have passed on had they kept their original draft position.
4. The Yankees sign OF Yostin Pena to a minor league contract.
This signing isn’t inconsequential, as the Cardinals gave the teenager a hefty $300,000 signing bonus in January.
His transaction page doesn’t offer much insight, so you may wonder: What’s happening here?
From what I could find, he may have been released due to questions about his age. Honestly, the only two things that make sense are age or disciplinary reasons. It seems unlikely they would hand $300,000 to a prospect, not play him, and release him for talent reasons. That’s what you do when they fail for several years, like most of the prospects from the ill-fated 2014-2015 Yankees’ international signing bonanza-turned-embarrassment. Heads should have rolled based on that class alone.
Bottom Line:
So, how old is Pena? If this is an age-related issue, who knows? He is officially listed as an 18-year-old, for now. Regardless, if there is talent to tap into, I don’t care how old he is.
“Wait! You used a Twitter link! I thought you hated that place!” True that. However, a web search didn’t yield many results beyond the RedBird Farmhands Xwitter page. I can’t confirm whether that page is reliable, but the information seems reasonable.
5. Winter Meetings!
On Sunday, the annual frenzy known as the Winter Meetings kicks off. The Yankees, as always, will be active. Whether “active” means something will actually get done instead of laying groundwork, who knows?
I am old enough to remember the days when you had to watch SportsCenter at 11 PM to get Winter Meetings updates from Peter Gammons. Yankees fans like myself would get excited over Greg Maddux talking to the Yankees. It was like a high school kid getting excited to talk to the head cheerleader, only for her to run off with the quarterback.
The end of the Winter Meetings brings the Rule 5 draft. As of now, the Yankees have plenty of space to add someone, though history suggests they will not. They will likely add depth through the Minor League phase of the draft. Last season, they brought in outfielder Luis Durango from the Guardians. He showed off his speed in Hudson Valley (17 stolen bases in 40 games), but power continues to elude him. He hasn’t homered since 2021.
In 2023, they added pitchers Gabriel Barbosa and Kervin Castro. After spending a year in the Yankees organization, the Phillies grabbed Barbosa in last year’s minor league phase. Castro, drafted from the Astros, should be considered a success story given that he was added to the 40-man roster to prevent him from entering free agency this winter.
Bottom Line:
The Winter Meetings have a mixed history. Sometimes, moves happen rapidly enough that it is hard to keep track. Other times, it’s a lot of rumor and conjecture with little action. To me, they have lost a little flavor because the world is better connected now than ever. You don’t need to rush into Brian Cashman’s suite (better knock first) to get something done before the flights take off.
That said, it’s still a fun few days for baseball fans. Maybe the Yankees will surprise us with something to talk about.