Yankees Notes and Opinions for 11/28
Other off-season pieces:
11/25/25
11/18/25
11/15/25
11/7/25
10/30/25
Japanese Free Agents
Rule 5 Primer
1. Yankees re-sign Michael Arias
You know things are a little slow when this is my opening note.
The Yankees didn’t tender Arias a contract last Friday, but decided to bring him back on a minor league deal. This isn’t uncommon. Terms of minor league deals are rarely disclosed, but I hope Arias was able to negotiate a raise for himself.
Arias, acquired from the Cubs for cash before the 2025 season, pitched in only 23 games in 2025, most of which were for Somerset.
Originally signed as a shortstop by the Toronto Blue Jays ($10,000), Arias never played a professional game at the position. To be exact, the Blue Jays released him before he appeared for them in any capacity. The Cubs signed him, moved him to the mound, and he turned himself into a prospect.
In 120 professional games (35 starts), he owns a 4.04 ERA over 211.2 innings with a 263/152 K/BB. It isn’t uncommon for converted position players to struggle with control.
There’s enough “arm” to work with, and he is fine as a minor league depth piece with some MLB upside. He turned 24 years old earlier this month.
2. The Blue Jays sign Dylan Cease (7 years, $210M)
I recently turned 52 years old and recall baseball transactions dating back over 40 years.
Some things have remained relatively unchanged over those years. One such thing is fans acting surprised over pitchers signing for insane amounts of money.
We are far removed from the day that Nolan Ryan signed an “obscene” 4-year, $4.5 million contract with the Astros.
As for Cease, he is an interesting pitcher who will improve the Blue Jays’ staff. One can point out his inconsistency year-to-year (though his FIP and xERA metrics are fairly consistent). It is easy to marvel at his durability while criticizing the length of his starts (he tossed only 168 innings in 32 starts).
However, it is hard to criticize the talent. Over his career, he owns a 3.88 ERA (3.67 FIP) over 1,015.1 innings with a 28.6% K and 10.0% BB. That strikeout rate climbs to 29.7% if you remove his 2019 rookie campaign and 2020 COVID year.
There might be some A.J. Burnett in his profile. Burnett was known for his stretches of dominance mixed with stretches of frustration. Both pitchers struck out and walked more hitters than average. Both were tough to hit. Finally, Burnett often made you wonder why he wasn’t better. I have heard the same whispers about Cease, who owns a career ERA+ of 110.
The Blue Jays are showing us that they want to be the king of the hill in the American League East. They struck early to get the pitcher they wanted.
3. The Red Sox acquire Sonny Gray from the Cardinals
Gray doesn’t have Cease’s durability, but he is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter coming off a season when he posted a 4.28 ERA (3.39 FIP) over 180.2 innings. He struck out 200+ batters in both of his seasons in St. Louis.
As Yankees fans, we remember a Gray who was … not good. Whether you want to blame Larry Rothschild for trying to change his approach or Gray himself, that’s up to you. However, the performance wasn’t there, and he was ultimately traded for the infamous Shed Long Jr., who the Yankees dealt to the Mariners for Josh Stowers. While Stowers hasn’t appeared in MLB (he has spent the last two years in the Mexican League), Long hit .216/.284/.376 in 110 games over three seasons in Seattle.
The Red Sox gave up old friend Richard Fitts (part of the Alex Verdugo trade we all want to forget) and LHP Brandon Clarke. After the trade, Pipeline named Clarke as the 7th-best prospect in the Cardinals system.
If you aren’t scared of Gray, I get it. I am not panicked over this move either. However, he is a solid pitcher who should help the Red Sox rotation. I think they need to add more pitching, however.
4. Cody Bellinger?
One piece of feedback I received earlier this week was that I was too quick to dismiss the Brandon Nimmo deal regarding its impact on the Yankees. I see where people are coming from: The Mets are likely in the outfield market.
Honestly, I didn’t think that through enough. However, I think the Mets would have targeted an outfielder regardless of Nimmo’s status. I didn’t read any articles referencing how the Mets needed to trade Nimmo before targeting an outfielder.
I don’t want to get into a bidding war for Bellinger. I will say that the Yankees benefit Bellinger as much as Bellinger benefits the Yankees. Yankee Stadium is a perfect ballpark for his skill set.
Yes, I still prefer Kyle Tucker.
5. Will the Yankees clear $300 million?
Unless Brian Cashman is about to surprise us with significant deals for cost-controlled players, I don’t know how they get under $300M.
If the goal is to get under $300M, Cashman has around $39M to spend. That’s a rough estimate, and if Hal Steinbrenner is willing to go to $299.9999 million, $300 million is nothing more than a nice, round number. In other words, if Hal wants to go under $300M, Cashman doesn’t have $39M to spend. He has much less as the goal would likely be in the $275 to $280 range.
The ways to accomplish a payroll reduction:
- Sign a significant free agent, fill out the remaining roster with cheap talent;
- Ignore the significant free agents, explore trades, and … fill out the remaining roster with cheap talent.
The Yankees’ bullpen “pipeline” is a constraint to their plans. The farm is lacking a big-league-ready relief option, and the MLB bullpen has many holes to fill. Forget about Edwin Diaz. Think about the next Luke Weaver or Tim Hill.
As it stands, the 2026 bullpen consists of:
David Bednar
Camilo Doval
Fernando Cruz
Tim Hill
Ryan Yarbrough
Jake Bird
Yerry De los Santos
Kervin Castro? Brent Headrick? Whoever survives the Rule 5 draft?
Even if Doval finds consistency and Bird bounces back, it is still a bullpen with questions. Granted, Bird pitching back to first-half 2025 form would be a tremendous help.
The good news is that you can build a bullpen cheaply. The market is saturated, and we see bargains work out all around baseball every season. It can be a crapshoot, but even the high-priced options can be crapshoots (no, not lumping Diaz in that mix).
The Yankees can use another starter, and an outfielder should be high on their list.
Having constraints to stay as far under $300M as possible isn’t an easy endeavor.
Thankfully, there’s an entire winter to figure out the puzzle.
And I don’t always believe Hal Steinbrenner, anyway.