Yankees Notes and Opinions for 11/21
Other off-season pieces:
11/18/25
11/15/25
11/7/25
10/30/25
Japanese Free Agents
Rule 5 Primer
1. The Yankees non-tender Mark Leiter Jr., Ian Hamilton, Scott Effross, Jake Cousins, and Michael Arias
This middling reliever bloodbath frees up five slots on the 40-man roster. And the crowd goes mild.
“Could they have used these slots for Rule 5 protection?”
Of course. Instead of non-tendering the five, they could have released them from the roster and added whoever they wanted. They decided against doing that. They obviously don’t have the same fear as those on social media about losing those prospects (or don’t fear that those prospects would be able to stick). Everyone knows how I feel about the Rule 5 – it’s a lot of panic over something that is typically not consequential. The Yankees didn’t lose anyone in 2024. In 2023, they lost three players, including Mitch Spence, who has contributed 1.0 bWAR and a 4.77 ERA in 236 innings for the Athletics. The other two players (Carson Coleman, Matt Sauer) were ultimately returned. Their worst year was 2020, when they lost Garrett Whitlock to the Red Sox and Trevor Stephan to the Guardians. Stephan had a solid 2022 season but hasn’t seen big league action since 2023, due to injury.
Hamilton was one of those “trash heap” finds who provided value for a while. Between 2023 and 2024, he pitched to a 3.10 ERA (2.91 FIP) over 95.2 innings, with a 27.4% K, 10.0% BB, and 50.4% GB. Both fWAR and bWAR valued his 2023 season at over 1.0, which isn’t bad over 58 innings of work.
2025 showed declines across the board. Additionally, his calling card slider (or whatever he wanted to call it) lost its effectiveness after his dominant 2023 campaign.
Effross, acquired from the Cubs for RHP Hayden Wesneski (who is now in the Astros’ organization), had the look of a late-blooming, cheap late-inning option until an injury late in 2022 seemingly destroyed his progression. Between 2021 and 2022, Effross had a strikeout rate of 27.9%. Since returning from injury, that rate is 12.3%. The move looked solid on paper, but didn’t work out. Move on.
Also acquired from the Cubs, Leiter Jr. (acquired for Jack Neely) had some bad luck this season. His 3.55 FIP was 1.29 points below his ERA (4.84), and his rates (24.7% K; 7.8% BB; 45.5% GB) weren’t too far off his career norms. He was entering his final arbitration year, but may be lucky to earn a Major League deal this winter. That’s what happens when you are released into a saturated relief market. However, his Baseball Savant profile shows a lot of pink and red.
Cousins, who has struggled with health issues, had a productive 37-game sample in 2024. He pitched to a 2.37 ERA (4.06 FIP) and an impressive 34.2% K rate. Additionally, he threw in the first three games in the 2024 World Series, suffering the loss in the ill-fated Game 1 meltdown. Due to injury (again), his 2025 campaign consisted of two rehab games with Hudson Valley.
Arias is likely the name you recognize the least. That makes sense, as the 24-year-old has never appeared in a big league game. The Yankees acquired him for cash from the Cubs (there’s that team again) last winter. Injuries limited him to only 23 games, and he pitched to a 2.57 ERA in 17 games for Somerset. The strikeouts were there (29 in 21 innings), but he also walked 15.
I am not shocked by any of these moves. You may wonder the most about Cousins. Sure, the Yankees could have carried him through next spring to see if he could bounce back from his injuries. He has zero options remaining, so demoting him next spring wasn’t a possibility.
Just like their catching depth has taken a hit, their relief depth took a hit today. It’s typically easier to rebuild your relief depth. If they don’t make many moves between now and the Rule 5 Draft, perhaps they will select someone for the first time since 2011, when they selected Brad Meyers out of the Nationals’ organization. Meyers was injured for most of the 2012 campaign and was sent back to the Nationals in October. The Yankees don’t have any major success stories with their Rule 5 picks. The most prominent player they ever chose was Josh Phelps in 2006. The Yankees held onto him through June 2007.
2. The Yankees sign Oswaldo Cabrera and Clarke Schmidt
On the other side of the coin, Cabrera and Schmidt avoided arbitration by signing contracts today. Cabrera will earn $1.2M while Schmidt will bank $4.5M.
These moves are not surprising. Cabrera offers versatility. There is no chance they will cut him while he is making so little.
Half of Schmidt’s 2025 salary will be paid while he is rehabbing. The Yankees weren’t going to cut him either, as they are likely to need pitching in the second half. Plus, he is darn good when he is healthy.
3. The Yankees sign Jonathan Ornelas
I guess they found their Andrew Velazquez replacement, though he is Temu Velazquez. The versatile right-handed bat has 32 games of MLB experience between the Rangers and Braves, hitting a putrid .208/.263/.245 (49 OPS+). There doesn’t exist a redeeming quality with his bat. This is the type of transaction all MLB teams make as they try to build depth.
It’s only November, but for now, Ornelas can find himself in a similar situation as Jahmai Jones in 2024 and Pablo Reyes in 2025, potentially in a battle for the final spot on the MLB roster. One would think Braden Shewmake, already on the 40-man, would be higher on the depth chart in this scenario. Here’s hoping we don’t have to worry about this scenario, but I never had Reyes on my 2025 roster projection. I don’t think Reyes himself had the 2025 roster on his bingo card.
Like most veterans, Ornelas negotiated an opt-out into his contract. However, his opt-out doesn’t kick in until midway through the 2026 season. The Yankees would have the option to block it by adding him to the 40-man roster.
4. Brian Cashman is “talking” to Scott Boras and Casey Close
And I find blogging about the Yankees on a Friday Night more enjoyable than anything else I can potentially be doing.
Anyone shocked by this development doesn’t follow baseball closely. These two control some of the most prominent free agents in baseball, a few of whom should intrigue the Yankees.
Most notably, Boras represents Cody Bellinger, while Close has Kyle Tucker and Michael King on his talent roster.
Tucker is a great fit for the Yankees, even with his limited left field exposure. Bellinger is a “known” quantity coming off a solid season and offers more defensive versatility in his profile. King, coming off an injury, may not get the contract many were expecting at the start of 2025. Additionally, we know the Yankees tried to hold onto him in the Juan Soto talks. It was never going to happen.
The Yankees won’t sign everyone, and their projected 2026 payroll is already high. According to Spotrac, their current projected payroll is $259M. This includes expected arbitration and non-arbitration raises. The Yankees get some financial relief from the Marlins on the Giancarlo Stanton contract. From 2026 through 2028, they are required to cover $30M ($10M/year) of his contract. This is helpful, but not extremely so.
I favor Tucker over Bellinger, but we are talking about a lengthier contract with a higher AAV. Both players are in demand, so nobody is getting a bargain.
5. The Yankees are interested in a Devin Williams reunion
Many teams will have interest in Williams thanks to peripherals that point to an elite reliever who had a down year statistically.
I don’t think it is smart to look at the peripherals and ignore the bottom-line numbers. Both have importance in player evaluation, and concern over whether Williams is beyond his peak is justified.
That said, when Williams was on in 2025, he was his typical lights-out self. He didn’t do that as consistently as he did in past seasons, and that is what organizations need to figure out. If he had his typical season in 2025, his value would be higher. However, don’t expect a steep discount.
This could be due diligence on the Yankees’ part, as they try to build their 2026 bullpen. At this point in the winter, their 2026 bullpen mix can go in a million different directions.