Yankees Notes: Rule 5 Primer
The deadline for Rule 5 protection is coming next week, so it is time to look at who the Yankees will be looking to protect.
The Yankees already added one player to their roster last week: RHP Kervin Castro. However, this was to prevent him from leaving via minor league free agency.
The 40-man roster sits at 35. Teams can make moves to open up room. Players who could be on the chopping block include pitchers Michael Arias and Jayvien Sandridge, along with infielder Braden Shewmake. Of the 35 players on the roster, only 13 are position players, which could keep Shewmake safe.
With all that out of the way, let’s take a look at the Yankees:
No Brainers:
1. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz: The right-hander was arguably the most impressive pitching prospect in the system (if you don’t wish to include Cam Schlittler in that conversation). His combination of strikeouts (29%) and ground balls (54.5%) is fascinating. Rodriguez-Cruz can be rotation-ready in 2026. The Yankees will double, triple, quadruple-check their submission list to make sure they didn’t accidentally leave him off.
2. Spencer Jones: Everyone knows I am not convinced about Jones. That doesn’t mean I would leave him exposed. I don’t have to go through all the details. He is a 30/30 talent with swing-and-miss concerns (understatement).
Should be protected:
3. Chase Hampton: My only hesitation is if the Yankees have medical reports that indicate that his arm is dead. Assuming that is not the case, they aren’t going to let Hampton finish his rehab elsewhere and come back to haunt them someday. He will be picked without hesitation if organizations aren’t scared about his health (and even if they are. It is the Rule 5 draft, after all)
4. Brock Selvidge – Selvidge’s season wasn’t special (4.68 ERA in 82.2 innings with scary rates (18.9% K; 12.2% BB)). There is certainly a scenario where I can see the Yankees risking this, hoping he will be returned even if he is selected. However, I lean towards “protect”.
Yoendrys Gomez, Part 2?
The Yankees protected the oft-injured Gomez and kept him on the 40-man roster for a while. Frankly, he ran out of time. He was out of options and wasn’t ready to help the Yankees.
The next Gomez might be Henry Lalane, the big, talented left-handed pitcher who has thrown only 143 innings over five minor league campaigns (99.2 innings in 2021-2022; 43.1 innings since). What places him on the fence? He hasn’t advanced past Low-A. Any team that grabs him will have to make a major commitment to keep him. A long time ago, the Padres stole Luis Torrens from the Yankees and buried him for a season. And he is a catcher. It is easier to bury a pitcher at the bottom of your bullpen.
I can make the case either way, though I lean “Protect”. His left arm is tantalizing enough to justify it.
Some Others of Note. Some have a better shot than others, but I can’t put any of them at 0%.
C Manuel Palencia – My first instinct would be “no chance,” but the catcher was sent to the Arizona Fall League. Is that an indicator of faith? I don’t know, but it doesn’t hurt his cause.
1B T.J. Rumfield and 3B Tyler Hardman – Rumfield continues to hit well in Triple-A, and Hardman was once an interesting right-handed power prospect. Neither is projected to be protected.
OF Jace Avina – Acquired from the Brewers in the Jake Bauers deal, the 22-year-old made it to Double-A in 2025. He didn’t perform well in 46 games (.224/.314/.341; 98 wRC+), but the lack of upper-level positional prospects could keep him on their protection radar.
RHP Brendan Beck – The Yankees patiently waited for Beck as he dealt with injuries after being drafted. His 2025 season wasn’t special, but he is ready to contribute in the big leagues as a low-upside back-of-the-rotation type. Will the Yankees see him as a valuable shuttle option, given some of their early-season starting pitching concerns?
RHP Bailey Dees – The tall righty has been used as a starter and a reliever. No reason to believe he will be added to the roster.
RHP Huey Morrill – Now, here is an intriguing pitcher to discuss. The Yankees sent him to the AFL, and he was featured in an Arizona Fall League article. I would label him as 50/50.
RHP Eric Reyzelman – I didn’t even think we’d be here, as I projected him to make it to the big leagues in 2025. Tides can turn, however, and Reyzelman had a disastrous season. His ERA was OK (4.29), but it came with a 22.3% BB. Additionally, he didn’t make up for the walk rate with a high strikeout rate (23.9%). His pedigree as the system’s top relief prospect before 2025 gives him a shot, and I wouldn’t expect him to survive the Rule 5.
RHP Harrison Cohen – With Reyzelman slumping, you could argue that Cohen emerged as their best relief prospect, as evidenced by his 1.76 ERA between Somerset and Scranton. Will a decision come down to Morrill vs. Cohen? Maybe.
RHP Danny Watson – Watson, who stands 6’7″, intrigued many with his 1.58 ERA showing in 2023. However, an injury seemingly sapped him of his ability. That said, he got off to a terrible start in 2025 before getting on a roll to finish with a 4.74 ERA (3.29 FIP) with an incredible 3.4% BB. I wouldn’t mind keeping him, but there are only so many open slots.
RHP Adam Stone – Stone missed a lot of time, but did show up in the Arizona Fall League. That is the only reason why he is on this list instead of the “no chance” list. However, I don’t think this was an indication of serious interest in protecting him, as there are safer bets.
RHP Luis Serna – Serna has lost some prospect shine, with injuries playing a role. He pitched only seven innings in 2025. Working in his favor are his age and the fact that those seven innings came late in the season after missing most of the year to injury. Working against him is that he has yet to advance beyond Low-A. They’ll probably risk losing him, though I wouldn’t place a significant bet on that.
RHP Carson Coleman – Selected by the Rangers in 2023 but ultimately returned, Coleman could declare minor league free agency if he is selected a second time but doesn’t make the team. Coleman (who will be 28 in April) has a fun story, as he was once a top Yankees relief prospect who succumbed to injuries. He pitched well in seven games for Somerset, but it’s hard to imagine the Yankees using a slot for him.
RHP Yovanny Cruz – The Yankees signed Cruz recently, which is the only reason why I give him even a 0.01% chance of being protected. Pitching for Boston’s Double-A affiliate in Portland, Cruz compiled a 3.03 ERA and 72/44 K/BB over 59.1 innings in 2025. You can see what the 26-year-old struggles with, right?
LHP Will Brian – Being left-handed has its perks. That said, Brian will be 27 next April. He tossed 43.1 strong innings this season, his highest total by far (his previous best was 6.1). The thing working in Brian’s favor is his performance, as he posted a 2.48 ERA upon his promotion to Somerset. Highly unlikely to be protected.
LHP Geoffrey Gilbert – Gilbert is younger than Brian and is also coming off a solid season. He compiled an impressive 34.2% strikeout rate over 43.2 innings (44.8% GB). Gilbert is on my list of potential surprise choices, though we are still looking at below 20%.
Also eligible, but won’t be protected. If any of these players are protected, I will gladly eat crow. If the worst-case scenario is that I look bad while a youngster realizes his dream, I’ll take it.
RHP Zach Messinger
RHP Justin Lange
RHP Sebastian Keane
RHP Luis Velasquez
RHP Cole Ayers
RHP Kevin Stevens
RHP Matt Keating
RHP Ocean Gabonia
RHP Hayden Merda
RHP Angel Benitez
RHP Baron Stuart
RHP Thomas Balboni Jr.
RHP Jackson Fristoe
RHP Sean Hermann
RHP Hansel Rosario
LHP Allen Facundo
C Edinson Duran
OF Willy Montero
UTIL Hans Montero
Bottom Line:
The Rule 5 draft is intriguing in one way: It shows us which prospects the Yankees value at a higher level than others. One thing we don’t know is which prospects were in demand at the 2025 deadline. That could influence decision-making.
I do not get too worked up over who they lose. They don’t even bother to add through the Rule 5 draft (they will take players during the less restrictive minor league phase).
Yes, you will lose a Garrett Whitlock from time to time. But it’s rare. Usually, the most pain in the Rule 5 comes from losing someone you have enjoyed following for several years.
My Predictions:
Spencer Jones
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz
Chase Hampton
Brock Selvidge
Henry Lalane
Players they may create room for:
Brendan Beck
Huey Morrill
Harrison Cohen
Geoffrey Gilbert or Will Brian
We’ll see how close I get.