A Look at the 2025 (and 2026) Yankees
Depending on your perspective, the Yankees’ 2025 season either shockingly or unshockingly came to an end on Wednesday night.
The Yankees, once again, came up short of their goal of winning a World Series. Aaron Judge is on a path that would make him the best non-championship Yankees player of all time. It wouldn’t be close, as the next best career Yankees would be Don Mattingly and Mel Stottlemyre. The fact that most generations of Yankees have at least one title is amazing when you break it down. If you are a big fan of Brett Gardner or Hideki Matsui, you will always have 2009, for example.
It’s not that 2025 was a complete failure. After losing Juan Soto, the Yankees had to move on to Plan B, which included adding several pieces to make up for what Soto did alone. We have heard the expression “Moneyball with money,” and that is what the Yankees had to do. They mostly succeeded with the combination of Cody Bellinger, Max Fried, and Paul Goldschmidt.
However, part of the plan was supposed to include improvement from many of the organization’s best young players. That is where you can argue that things fell short. Anthony Volpe declined to the point where you question if he should be the 2026 shortstop. Austin Wells continued to be a good defensive catcher, but his offense was inconsistent and disappointing. Jasson Dominguez lost his job to Trent Grisham and feels like more of a question mark than he should be heading into next year.
The bright spots included the emergence of Ben Rice, who should be given the first base job in 2026, and Cam Schlittler. Schlittler went from a promising Double-A arm to pitching two elimination games in the playoffs. If that made him nervous, he didn’t show it as he walked zero batters over 14.1 innings in those two starts. While Toronto worked him harder than the Red Sox did, he still pitched better in Game 4 than he did in his previous two starts against the Blue Jays. We can also give a kudos to Will Warren, who took the ball every time through the rotation and had moments that make you believe he can settle in as a #4 or #5 starter. If he isn’t included in a trade package, he will be an important piece to the early 2026 rotation as the Yankees await the return of Gerrit Cole.
However, the ultimate goal wasn’t reached. They fell short of their 2024 season. So, the Yankees will need to answer some questions:
1. Is Volpe the 2026 shortstop?
Volpe, who will earn around $4 million in his first arbitration year, had a disastrous 2025. There is no spinning it. He ended the season with a 1.0 fWAR. Among qualified shortstops, he ranked 25th out of 26th, beating out Minnesota’s Brooks Lee, a highly-regarded youngster in his first big league season.
In three big league campaigns, Volpe has yet to post an OBP above .300 or a SLG above .400. His wRC+ numbers are consistent, but not in a good way: 83, 87, 83. His BsR rating (which measures baserunning) was the lowest of his career, and his defensive value went into negative territory for the first time.
Essentially, Volpe is unplayable for a team with championship aspirations. “Playoff Volpe” showed up for the Boston series, but Toronto’s pitching ate him up and spit him out.
The question people will ask is: If not Volpe, who?
Would the Yankees go with Jose Caballero, who hit well after being acquired? It’s hard to imagine him as an everyday shortstop, and that offensive surge isn’t his norm. He could be used as a “bridge” as the Yankees hope that George Lombard Jr. pans out.
Is there a free agent available? Bo Bichette is a strong hitter when healthy, but he doesn’t appear to be long for shortstop. Could they hold their noses with his defense for a year before moving him to another position? Do they want to invest in a player who has shown some injury trends, even though he has played at least 135 games in four of his last five seasons? I don’t see the Yankees going in this direction, but it is possible. The rest of the market offers no upgrades.
Trades are hard to project, and if one became available, the cost would be prohibitive.
The Yankees had options to improve shortstop over the years, but bet high on Volpe. That gamble isn’t working out, and now they are in a pickle.
2. How about the outfield?
The Yankees should let Trent Grisham walk. He had a fun season, but will command a solid contract in free agency.
As for Cody Bellinger, I would re-sign him. I can see Bellinger being a solid MLB contributor for the next 5-6 years, which figures to be the length of his next deal. This is his chance to cash in on a strong season, and I expect him to.
Beyond that, if Kyle Tucker makes it to free agency, you can’t rule out the Yankees as a pursuer.
There are two big question marks, however:
- Are the Yankees still confident in Jasson Dominguez?;
- Do the Yankees think Spencer Jones can overcome his strikeout issues?
Positives exist for Dominguez, including a decent 103 wRC+ and 3.0 BsR. With his speed and strong arm, one can hope his defense in left field can improve. Note that I am not saying his offense is “acceptable” – however, it is something he can potentially build on. After compiling a 94 wRC+ and 0.4 fWAR in 1991, Bernie Williams bounced back to compile a 118 wRC+ and 2.0 fWAR in 62 games in 1992.
As for Jones, anyone who reads my reports knows that I have mixed feelings. You want to bet on his insane raw ability while recognizing that there are issues that need to be fixed. His ceiling as a 30/30 hitter with above-average center field defense exists. His floor as an unsustainable high strikeout guy who won’t ever reach his ceiling also exists.
I am not putting my chips in the middle with Jones. The Yankees can keep it simple by re-signing Bellinger and using Dominguez. It doesn’t represent the change that people want, but it could be their best play. I love Tucker, who has a ceiling as one of the top outfielders in baseball. The Cubs don’t always spend as they should, but I would expect them to make a strong bid to keep him.
Remember that when discussing outfield options, the designated hitter slot should be considered. While Giancarlo Stanton will return, the odds that he will give the Yankees a full season are low.
I don’t see any other free agent outfielders as tempting.
Trades? I have seen the Steven Kwan chatter. He has two years of team control left, and a franchise like Cleveland could see this as the moment to extract the most value. Kwan is a tremendous defensive outfielder coming off an average-ish offensive campaign. His contact skills will make the fan base drool. I would be intrigued.
3. Is the starting pitching set?
Never rule out Brian Cashman looking into the pitching market. The Yankees have big investments in three starting pitchers, however, and I don’t expect them to add a fourth. A trade is possible, especially since they were rumored to be in the market at the deadline. What is scary about this is that if Cashman accomplishes his goal, we may not see Schlittler in the 2025 playoffs.
I questioned the Yankees’ depth. It didn’t become a problem because Fried, Carlos Rodon, and Will Warren each gave them 32+ starts while Schlittler developed quicker than they anticipated. Their depth didn’t work out (Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman), but they didn’t need it to.
Heading into 2026, I feel confident. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Ben Hess, Bryce Cunningham, and Carlos Lagrange can be ready at different points next season. If Brendan Beck is around, he could be on the shuttle. As for Chase Hampton, I wouldn’t count on him as an MLB option in 2026. He had Tommy John Surgery in February, meaning he should be ready to return early in the season. However, he has lost a lot of development time.
4. The bullpen was up-and-down this season. What might they do there?
First of all, I don’t see a minor leaguer breaking through next spring. Eric Reyzelman had a difficult campaign and ended it on the injured list. Harrison Cohen is likely their readiest prospect, but I don’t see him breaking camp.
They have David Bednar, Fernando Cruz, Camilo Doval, and Mark Leiter Jr. under contract. Tim Hill has a team option, and the hope is that Jake Bird will rediscover his first-half form. Yerry De los Santos had enough 2025 moments to make one believe he can be a middle-of-the-pen option. In the unlikely scenario where these seven break camp with the team, that would leave an opening. I do not expect the Yankees to have faith in Scott Effross or Ian Hamilton.
The free agent and trade markets are always saturated with talent. One member of that pool is Devin Williams, who likely wants to move on. However, might the Yankees tempt him with a 1-year prove-it deal? Williams feels like a pitcher destined for a 2026 bounce back, but I am not sure he even wants to do that here.
5. Is Ben Rice the first baseman? What about catcher?
Rice should be the first baseman, and I am keeping Wells behind the plate. If they re-sign Bellinger, he can be a backup option at first base. Additionally, Rice can be Wells’ backup at catcher. This can be important, as it opens up the squad to have a meaningful bench that isn’t wasting slots on players like Pablo Reyes. We saw how that versatility can work with Amed Rosario as their designated “lefty masher” after the deadline.
If Bellinger walks, they will need to find a bench player who can handle first base. I am not lamenting the loss of Rafael Flores to trade, but he could have filled the righty 1B/C role in 2026. As is, they would likely need to be creative in this scenario.
Note that three spots I am not questioning are right field (duh), second base (Jazz Chisholm Jr. is coming back), and third base (Ryan McMahon is strong defensively and his power is better than what he showed). Even if you wanted to move on from McMahon, not many teams are going to absorb the two years and $32 million remaining on his contract.
Bottom Line:
This is a tricky off-season. While the Yankees have work to do, many of their positions have players under contract. There is a solid chance that most of the changes they make are minor in nature, as the majority of their lineup and pitching staff remain.
Or Brian Cashman can go nuclear, replacing and trading Volpe, letting all the free agents move on, and looking at players like Tucker to complement Judge. It’s not a great free agent class for nuclear options, but you can pull it off.
By the way, I do not expect Cashman or Aaron Boone to be replaced. You can argue about that until your face and toes go blue, but there isn’t any indication that the Yankees have plans to move on. I have been steady in my opinion that Cashman will only leave on his terms, with a future advisory/baseball operations role in play. I am done with Boone and hate the “If not him, then who?” narrative, as if we are talking about prime Casey Stengel. If not him, there are plenty of baseball minds out there to choose from. What makes his job safe while other teams move on from their managers?
The Yankees’ situation is not dire, but the 2026 squad will be new because even their last dynasty included change.
However, the extent of those 2026 changes may be underwhelming to the fanbase.