Month: March 2025

Conference Tournament Preview: Big South

History:

Winthrop has won 33% of the Big South’s conference championships (13 of 39). The Eagles are also the last team to win an NCAA Tournament game (2007, when they defeated Notre Dame in an 11-vs-6 game). Traditionally, this isn’t a conference you look to for an NCAA Tournament upset, though their 2025 NET conference ranking (18th) isn’t so bad.

Returning Champion:

Longwood won its second title in three years. Despite finishing 6-10 in conference play, the #5 seed knocked off top-seeded High Point in the semi-finals before destroying #2 seed UNC-Asheville in the championship.

Format:

All nine teams make the field. The first round is an 8-vs-9 game. After that, the tournament plays out normally.

Contenders:

One team can avoid a bad NCAA Tournament seed, and that squad is High Point. Ranked in the Top 100 in the NET, the Panthers have won 11 straight. Furthermore, while they didn’t play a Quad 1 game, they own a decent Quad 2 victory over North Texas. They went 2-0 against the AAC, also knocking off UAB. It is an offense you don’t want to mess with, as they are ranked 26th in offensive efficiency and 20th in PPG (82.4). If they have a lead late, they are amongst the best free-throw shooting squads (76.7%). The issue? Their defense. While it doesn’t look so bad on the surface (68.8 PPG), the KenPom ranks them 225th.

One of the teams High Point lost to in conference play is UNC-Asheville, who will enter this tournament as the #2 seed. Like High Point, the Bulldogs like to score (82.5 PPG) with bad defense. Not to be outdone, Winthrop is one of the nation’s highest-scoring squads (85.0). Their top four scorers are seniors, and they ended the season with a 103-90 triumph over UNC-Asheville.

Sleeper:

Presbyterian enters the tournament on a three-game winning streak, including road wins over Radford (19-12, 9-7) and UNC-Asheville.

How it should play out:

High Point entered the 2024 tournament as the favorite and lost. They have yet to make it to the NCAA Tournament. While it shouldn’t be a cakewalk (it never is), their team is far better than the rest of the league.

Winner:

Expect High Point to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance, where they will likely receive a “chance to win” seed.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Sun Belt

History:

The storied Sun Belt had at-large credentials in the past but hasn’t sent multiple teams to the NCAA Tournament since 2013. The conference has many transformations over the years and six current squads have won the tournament.

Last season, James Madison became the first squad since Little Rock in 2016 to win an NCAA Tournament game.

Returning Champion:

James Madison was special last season, compiling a 32-4 record and being ranked in the AP poll eight times. Interestingly, despite their big year, the Dukes were the #2 seed in the conference tournament behind Appalachian State, a squad that handed them two of their four losses. In the NCAA Tournament, they upset Wisconsin in a 12-vs-5 upset before losing to Duke. 

Format:

All 14 squads make this unique “step ladder” tournament, where the top two seeds automatically advance to the semi-finals. That is important this season, as I will outline below.

Contenders:

Wow. Four teams went 13-5 while a fifth (Marshall) went 12-6. Various tiebreakers were needed to create the bracket, with South Alabama and James Madison earning the coveted #1 and #2 seeds. The tiebreaker losers (Troy and Arkansas State) will automatically advance to the quarterfinals.

Arkansas State is in the NET Top 100. The Red Wolves own a massive win at Memphis and played Alabama within nine on the road. Additionally, they defeated Mid-American champion Akron and AAC 3rd place squad UAB. They are a slow-tempo squad with a solid team defense.

Despite those credentials, they are the #4 seed, as they went 1-4 against South Alabama/James Madison/Troy.

Like Arkansas State, South Alabama plays a slow style (352nd in tempo!) and strong defense (99th). They allow only 64.3 points per game.

James Madison isn’t the same team this year. They couldn’t win a Quad 1 or Quad 2 game (0-4) and their lone matchup against South Alabama was a disaster (77-49 loss). However, we must respect them as they only need two wins to cut down the nets.

Fitting the theme, Troy is also slow-paced and defensive. They held Houston to 62 points (but scored only 42) and Arkansas to 65 (only scored 49). They went 5-1 in February, including an impressive win at Arkansas State.

Sleeper:

Texas State plays a different style, averaging 76.7 points. Late in the season, they played three overtime games against South Alabama (split) and James Madison (win).

How it should play out:

This is a fun tournament with the format I prefer. Allowing your best teams to go straight to the semifinals won’t tire them out heading into a potential NCAA Tournament game, and it rewards great regular-season play.

Arkansas State stands out, though it isn’t a slam dunk. If there aren’t any upsets, they will play Marshall in a tough quarterfinal matchup. Marshall won their only meeting this season.

Winner:

This is a bunched-up league that could avoid a dreaded #16 seed. Picking a name out of a hat, I will take Troy. James Madison isn’t a scary #2 seed, and they are on Troy’s side of the bracket.

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Patriot League

History:

Colgate has romped through this conference, winning the last four titles by 66 points. Additionally, the Raiders have reached the title game for seven straight seasons. Unfortunately, their conference dominance hasn’t resulted in an NCAA Tournament win. The last Patriot League team to win a main bracket game was Lehigh in 2012, where they knocked off Duke in a 15-vs-2 contest.

Army and Loyola Maryland have never won the conference tournament. While Loyola has reached the NCAA Tournament twice (while playing for a different league), Army has zero NCAA Tournament appearances.

Returning Champion:

Colgate reached the NCAA Tournament as a #15 seed, succumbing to Baylor by 25.

Format:

All ten squads make the field, with the top six squads receiving a first-round bye.

Contenders:

Bucknell and American compiled the best seasons, with Bucknell making a late surge (6 straight wins) to take the #1 seed. Four teams (Boston University, Army, Colgate, Navy) went 10-8 in conference play, giving this tournament the most wide-open look in many years.

The widest average margin of victory is 1.0 (Bucknell) while the widest average margin of defeat is 2.3 (Holy Cross).

Sleeper:

Navy defeated American on the road late in the season, perhaps boosting their confidence heading into the conference tournament.

How it should play out:

The Patriot League was one of the easiest leagues to handicap in recent seasons, but that isn’t the case in 2025. Would it shock me if Colgate continued dominating, despite a down season? Nope. Matt Langel has coached them to four straight conference championships and it is hard to ignore that pedigree.

However, I won’t go in that direction. Army is the sentimental favorite, but they fell apart late.

Winner:

This one is tough. I will pick Navy, as they boast the league’s best scorer (Austin Benigni) and rebounder (Aidan Kehoe). 

 

Conference Tournament Preview: Horizon

History:

The Horizon League has a rich NCAA Tournament history, highlighted by Butler’s back-to-back appearances in the title game in 2010 and 2011. The 2011 squad was the last team to win an NCAA Tournament game until 2024, when Oakland pulled off one of the biggest upsets in the NCAA Tournament, defeating Kentucky by four in a 13-vs-4 game. They followed that up by taking the eventual Final Four squad of North Carolina State to overtime in the second round.

Returning Champion:

As I just mentioned, Oakland won the tournament as the #1 seed, avoiding a 1-vs-7 upset against Cleveland State by three.

Format:

All 11 teams make it, with seeds 1-5 receiving first-round byes. One unique feature is that the Horizon reseeds after every round. For example, for as long as Robert Morris is in the tournament, they will play the lowest remaining seed.

Contenders:

Robert Morris is the top seed after a 23-8 (15-5) regular season. According to the NET, the best squad is #3 seed Milwaukee (21-10, 14-6). Milwaukee owns a non-conference Quadrant 2 win over Akron. Also at the top are Cleveland State (20-11, 14-6) and Youngstown State (19-12, 13-7) to go along with high-scoring Purdue Fort Wayne (19-12, 12-8). It should come as no surprise that this is a wide-open conference.

The Horizon is the 19th-ranked conference and should be able to avoid a #16 seed unless there is a major upset winner.

Sleeper:

Oakland (14-17) challenged themselves in the non-conference, playing five Quadrant 1 games. In the Diamond Head Classic, they defeated Loyola-Chicago before losing to Oregon State in overtime in the title game. The Golden Grizzles swept Milwaukee but were swept by Robert Morris in close contests.

How it should play out:

Firstly, I won’t completely ignore the 4-27 campaign for broadcaster-turned-head coach Doug Gottlieb at Green Bay. The Phoenix aren’t traditional powers (they have 20+ losses in three of their last four campaigns), but they were coming off an 18-14 season.

I like Purdue Fort Wayne, though to pick them means I am confident they can beat Youngstown State on the road in the quarterfinals (the quarterfinals are played at campus sites). Hence, I have to scratch them.

I like Milwaukee’s path the best, but this is a crapshoot.

Winner:

Milwaukee.

 

College Basketball 3/3: Top 25

1. Auburn (27-2) (1) – Any team that wins ten Quadrant 1 games should be taken seriously. The Tigers have 16.
2. Duke (26-3) (2) – Since their loss to Clemson, Duke has won 6 straight by an average of 31.7.
3. Houston (25-4) (4) – Meanwhile, Houston has won eight in a row. Three of their four losses occurred in overtime.
4. Tennessee (24-5) (5) – Their conquest of Alabama was their 10th Quadrant 1 win. Their offensive rating does scare me, however.
5. Florida (25-4) (3) – In a conference filled with Quad 1 opportunities, the Gators are only 6-4. Some of that is tied into their non-conference slate. The Gators are one of three teams in the top ten offensively and defensively (Duke, Houston).
6. Alabama (23-6) (6) – Have they fallen off the pace for a #1 seed? Perhaps, but they finish with Florida and Auburn.
7. Michigan State (24-5) (8) – The surge continues, as the Spartans are 10-3 in Quadrant 1 and are nearly guaranteed the #1 seed in the Big Ten. I hate to say that a Tom Izzo team is a “sneaky” Final Four contender, but given the hype of the SEC and Duke, it fits.
8. St. John’s (26-4) (7) – The Final Four isn’t an impossible dream, but the offense will need to steal a game at some point.
9. Texas Tech (22-7) (9) – A slow-tempo team with a strong offensive efficiency will drive opponents crazy. Houston and Duke are the same, but their defenses are better.
10. Wisconsin (22-7) (10) – The Badgers have a solid upper-tier resume. They should have Elite Eight dreams.
11. Missouri (21-8) (15) – Like Alabama, their offense will carry them. Comfortably in the second tier within the SEC, the Tigers are 6-8 in Quad 1.
12. Clemson (24-5) (16) – The 3-OT loss at home to Georgia Tech keeps them from the top seed in the ACC. This senior-laden squad made a surprise run to the Elite Eight in 2024. The relative weakness of the ACC doesn’t mean you should ignore them.
13. Maryland (22-7) (11) – 6 Quad 1 wins, no bad losses, and a soul-crushing loss to Michigan State. Their non-conference schedule is the biggest knock.
14. Iowa State (22-7) (12) – The Cyclones had #1 seed dreams at one point. A big win over Arizona stopped a 4-5 slide.
15. Saint Mary’s (27-4) (17) – Some squads with slow tempos aren’t as good defensively as you think. The Gaels are different, as they are methodical offensively and tough defensively. They cruised to the WCC title and will be the #1 seed.
16. Marquette (22-7) (19) – It is easy to forget that the Golden Eagles went 4-0 against the Big Ten/SEC (Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Georgia). They get a second crack at UConn and St. John’s to close the season.
17. Louisville (23-6) (20) – Like Clemson, the Cardinals are kicking themselves for losing to Georgia Tech. It’s their only loss after losing to Kentucky on 12/14.
18. Michigan (22-7) (13) – The Wolverines were smoked at home by Illinois, likely ending their Big Ten title dreams. Positives? 8-4 in Quad 1 and only two Quad 4 games.
19. Kentucky (19-10) (18) – The Wildcats are 9-9 in Quadrant 1. The unbalanced league schedule meant two games against Tennessee (sweep) and Alabama (swept). Like Missouri, a top offense and not-so-great defense.
20. Oregon (21-8) (22) – Four straight wins after a 1-6 stretch destroyed their Big Ten dreams.
21. BYU (21-8) (24) – Incredible how a team that was going nowhere (15-8 without any big wins) has three Quad 1 wins in their last four games. Can they keep it going against Iowa State?
22. Purdue (20-9) (NR) – The Boilermakers stopped a 4-game losing streak by knocking off UCLA. They have eight Quad 1 wins (16 Quad 1 games)
23. Arizona (19-10) (21) – A weird season for the Wildcats. The computers love them (top 20 offense and defense; 7 Quad 1 wins; zero bad losses), but they are 2-4 in their last six games. It’s no wonder they are considered one of the unluckiest teams in the nation.
24. Texas A&M (20-9) (14) – The Aggies struggle against the top of the SEC and have four straight losses. Their defense remains strong, however, and they proved they can beat good teams in the non-conference.
25. Memphis (23-5) (NR) – I’ll finally give in and rank them, but I am still skeptical. Nice road win over UAB.

Dropped Out:

Mississippi State (20-9) (23) – I said it before conference play began: Once the SEC schedule begins, we will see separation. Being 20-9 and 8-8 within the conference isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but the top of the conference has exposed some weaknesses.
Mississippi (20-9) (25) – Nice bounceback over bubble squad Oklahoma, but Auburn torched them. The Rebels are over .500 within the conference (9-7) and own zero losses outside Quadrant 1. They finish with Tennessee and Florida.

Just Missed:

UC San Diego (26-4) – The Tritons are suddenly 34th in the NET and are legitimate at-large contenders if they were to lose in the conference championship game (I don’t think they make it with a loss before that). The Quad 4 home loss to Seattle is a dagger, though it borders on Quad 3.
VCU (24-5) – The Rams are cruising and looking strong for an at-large. Tip: Don’t lose at Duquesne this week.
Illinois (19-11) – Their spot in the NCAA Tournament was never in doubt, but they needed that road destruction of Michigan.
Vanderbilt (20-9) – Michigan, Louisville, and Missouri get a lot of press for their turnaround seasons. Vanderbilt was 9-23 last season and hasn’t sniffed the NCAA Tournament since 2017. First-year coach Mark Byington (32-4 for James Madison last season) has authored the resurgence.

Conference Tournament Preview: ASUN

History:

Most of the dominant schools are no longer members of this conference. 5-time tournament winner Belmont is now in the Missouri Valley, while Liberty (who won three straight titles between 2019 and 2021) is now in Conference USA.

The Atlantic Sun is not to be taken lightly in the NCAA Tournament. In 2023, Kennesaw State played Xavier within five in a 14-vs-3 matchup, while Liberty pulled off a 12-vs-5 upset in 2019. No team is more famous than the 2013 Florida Gulf Coast squad. The Eagles won a pair of games in the NCAA Tournament, becoming the first #15 seed to make it to the Sweet 16 despite finishing second in conference play.

Returning Champion:

Stetson earned their first NCAA Tournament bid, losing to eventual champion UConn by 39 in the first round.

Format:

10 of the 12 teams (sorry, West Georgia and Bellarmine) make the field. The top six teams earn a bye into the Quarterfinals. In the first round, the #7 seed plays the #8 seed while the #9 seed plays the #10 seed. Interesting.

Two teams (Queens, and West Georgia) are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to their transition to Division 1. If Queens wins the conference tournament, the bid goes to the runner-up.

Contenders:

This well-balanced league was won by Lipscomb, who edged out North Alabama on tiebreakers. Both teams went 22-9 (14-4) and split the regular-season series. Lipscomb is the lone squad in the NET Top 100 (87th). All other teams are likely looking at a #16 seed, depending on how other small conference tournaments play out.

None of the teams are on a big winning streak. Florida Gulf Coast (18-13, 13-5) is on a 4-game winning streak.

Eastern Kentucky (18-13, 12-6) played Lousiville within two and Clemson within 13.

Sleeper:

North Florida (15-16, 8-10) has a win over an SEC team. Sure, that team is South Carolina, but that still impresses. The Ospreys went 2-1 in Quadrant 2 games (defeated Georgia Tech on the road). They play a high-scoring style (83.3 PPG, though they also give up 84.6).

How it should play out:

Lipscomb is comfortably the best team in the league. Using KenPom Efficiency, they are in the top 100 in offense and defense. They boast the league’s top scorer (Jacob Ognacevic). Ognacevic averages 20.3 PPG (12th in the country) and his career 65.8% rate on 2-point shots is fifth in conference history. This is the type of player big schools don’t want to see on their side of the bracket. If Lipscomb earns a 12-14 seed, they won’t be an easy out.

However, they aren’t unbeatable. They were swept by Eastern Kentucky, who could be their opponent in the semi-finals. Six teams won 18-22 games, making this a competitive conference.

Winner:

I am sticking with Lipscomb. They would be a team that many will pick for a first-round upset, and they may pull it off. As stated above, this conference should never be taken lightly.