The race for the #1 seeds
Can Auburn, Duke, or Houston blow a #1 seed this week? Not likely. Duke has done enough to keep their position, though a loss to the Georgia Tech/Virginia winner could drop them. Auburn has 16 Quadrant 1 wins and ranks #1 in Wins Above Bubble, which the committee looks at. Their likely opponent in the quarterfinals will be either Ole Miss or Arkansas. Would losing to either team hurt them? Maybe it could hurt their shot at being the #1 overall, but that’s it. Houston will likely take on TCU or West Virginia. West Virginia is a “giant killer” this year and is 6-10 in Quadrant 1. The problem for other #1 hopefuls? Losing to them is not likely to move the needle much.
This leaves us with Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, and latecomer Michigan State.
Florida’s weakness is its non-conference schedule. Their best opponent was North Carolina (win, neutral court). The Tar Heels are a bubble team. Beating Alabama and Auburn on the road will carry a lot of weight.
Alabama is second to Auburn in Wins Above Bubble. The Crimson Tide has one of the best non-conference schedules with wins over tournament-bound Illinois, Houston, and Creighton. Like Florida, they beat North Carolina (road, while Florida beat them on a neutral court). Working against them? They played Tennessee and Florida once and lost those games. Their argument becomes clear if they can beat Florida in a potential semi-final matchup.
Tennessee is one spot behind Florida in the KenPom, NET, and Wins Above Bubble. They split a pair of blowouts with the Gators but played a tougher non-conference schedule that includes wins over Louisville (road), Baylor (neutral), and Illinois (road). Their resume will be hard to ignore if they beat Auburn in a potential semi-final matchup.
In other words, good luck to the committee when dissecting those resumes. But what about a 4th possibility? Michigan State is coming on fast and has the second-most Quadrant 1 wins (12). The Spartans rank 7th in Wins Above Bubble. Something that holds them back is big non-conference wins. Like Florida, their biggest conquest is North Carolina on a neutral court. They lost neutral court contests to Kansas and Memphis. Their surge is courtesy of a season-ending 7-game winning streak that includes juicy wins over Michigan (twice), Illinois, Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin.
It will come down to the SEC Tournament, with Michigan State settling for a #2 seed regardless of the Big Ten Tournament. The margins are thin enough that a slip-up by Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee in the SEC Tournament can make it interesting.
Meanwhile, Duke (playing in the weakest conference among the contenders) will try to protect their #1 seed in the East. A fall to the #4 overall seed could send them out west for the second weekend.
How about St. John’s?
The Big East’s weakness makes a #1 seed unattainable. Can they rise to a #2? Possibly.
I listed three #1 seeds with four teams vying for the fourth spot. It’s been a while since I took high school math, but that leaves one slot for everyone else.
The Red Storm have four Quad 1 wins, far below the other contenders:
Kentucky: 10
Texas A&M: 8
Texas Tech: 8
Iowa State: 7
Their Wins Above Bubble, however, keeps them in the race. While below Texas A&M and Kentucky, they are 10th in this valuable metric with a better chance to win their conference title than their competition.
As long as they don’t fumble the ball against a weak Big East team, their seed won’t matter. They will be a protected Sweet 16 seed that will likely find themselves in Providence for the first two rounds. They would love to feed into Newark for the Sweet 16 and beyond, but bracket rules and seed rankings will determine that.
The final #2 seed will be as intriguing as the last #1 seed. Kentucky and Texas A&M have the juicy SEC Tournament to make their statements. Iowa State is merely the #5 seed in the Big 12, though they defeated Texas Tech on the road in their only matchup.
Rising and Falling
Oregon started 5-8 in the Big Ten. While falling below the cut line for the Big Ten Tournament was improbable, the bleeding needed to stop. It did, as they won their final seven games. Meanwhile, Nebraska started 7-8 in the Big Ten with NCAA Tournament dreams. The Cornhuskers lost their final five games, including an ugly 49-46 game to Michigan and a crazy 116-114 double-overtime loss at Ohio State. Their string of poor play/bad luck knocked them out of the Big Ten Tournament. It was a shocking development for a team with wins over Illinois, Oregon, UCLA, and Creighton.
Winning the Conference Tournament
How often do we see excuses about a team failing in the NCAA Tournament due to a “grueling” conference tournament?
It’s fiction. Last year, half of the final four (UConn, North Carolina State) won their conference tournaments. Purdue went to the semi-finals in the Big Ten, where they lost a “grueling” overtime game to Wisconsin. Alabama was the only Final Four squad knocked out early in their conference tournament (yes, Auburn won the SEC title and was subsequently bounced by Yale in the first round).
It is possible that conference tournaments impact teams in different ways. However, there is no advantage to losing early or disadvantage to making a run. The goal is to play your best basketball leading into the Big Dance.
What about the bubble?
More people care about the bubble than how the top teams are sorted. SEC schools (Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma) have the most opportunities to improve their resumes. ACC schools (North Carolina, Wake Forest) have few opportunities to enhance theirs.
Three non-SEC schools that define the 2025 bubble are Baylor, Ohio State, and Xavier. Xavier has a juicy opportunity against Marquette in the 4-vs-5 game. Winning that could create a second opportunity against St. John‘s. The Musketeers control their destiny. Ohio State, meanwhile, is on the bubble despite a #10 seed in the Big Ten Tournament (and people want the NCAA Tournament to expand?). If they can avoid an upset against Iowa, the Buckeyes will get their chance against Illinois. Lose that, and I think they are out. Baylor will play the winner of Kansas State/Arizona State in the second round in the Big 12. They need to win that game to feel somewhat comfortable.
Bubble teams rejoiced on Sunday afternoon when Drake knocked off Bradley in the Missouri Valley title game. While Drake’s at-large hopes were “iffy,” they were in the conversation. Not anymore.
What other mid-major conferences should you pay attention to?
Big West: Not typically your source of an at-large school, UC San Diego is making their case to have their resume scrubbed by the committee. Projected in the 11-13 seed range if they win the Big West Tournament, a loss in the title game to UC Irvine (if they both make it) would place them in an interesting spot. Their biggest issue would be a loss to Seattle (Quad 3) which could offset their road win over Utah State (Quad 1). By the way, if UC San Diego or UC Irvine wins the conference tournament, they will be a dangerous first-round opponent.
Atlantic 10: While a 1-bid outcome is possible, bubble teams do not want to see VCU lose. They are the only squad in the NET Top 50, though the WAB metric isn’t in love (54th). Like UC San Diego, they have a soul-crushing loss (Seton Hall is a Quad 4! Ouch!). Dayton is making a late charge after a non-conference run that included wins over UConn and Marquette and close losses to North Carolina and Iowa State. They have accomplished a lot and a run to the A-10 title game could get them in the conversation.
WCC: This one is simple: If you are a bubble team, Gonzaga or St. Mary’s must win. Working in their favor is that Gonzaga or St. Mary’s always wins. The last time neither won was in 2008 when San Diego cut down the nets. That is crazy. San Francisco is a capable team and Pepperdine is making a miracle run, but I think bubble teams feel comfortable.
Mountain West: This conference will receive multiple bids. Whether it is two or three will be determined. If you are a bubble team, you are rooting for New Mexico, the only definite team. Others (Utah State, San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State) are firmly on the bubble, with Utah State being the safest. I would be hesitant to rule out San Diego State, however. The committee will like that the Aztecs challenged themselves. Furthermore, the neutral court win over Houston is gold. Hence, if I were a bubble team, I would root for New Mexico, accept Utah State or San Diego State, and start sweating hard if it is anyone else.
AAC: Memphis. What more do I need to say? Bubble teams will be watching the AAC Tournament closer than most others. The Tigers are the only team with a Quad 1 win (6). They are 25th in WAB, which will negate their borderline NET. While North Texas is a good team, they are no threat for an at-large. The problem bubble teams have is that Memphis has played down to the competition. While their non-conference resume is impressive, they lost a home game to Arkansas State. They lost to Temple and Wichita State. They have close calls against East Carolina, Charlotte, Rice, and Texas-San Antonio. What should be a slam dunk tournament win is anything but, and that is scary if you are Xavier, Texas, Oklahoma, etc.
Bubble teams always have to worry about big conference upsets (ie, North Carolina State in 2024). Is there a team out there capable of something similar? You would be looking at teams like Rutgers (path isn’t terrible), Villanova, Pittsburgh (would need to find their early-season form), North Carolina (the talent is there, even if the results aren’t), and Kansas State (five Quadrant 1 wins). I won’t include the SEC in this analysis as the most likely outcome is bubble teams eating other bubble teams. Do I see South Carolina or LSU making a run to the title? No.