History:
The CAA has changed through the years and last won an NCAA Tournament game 13 years ago (VCU).
William & Mary has never received a bid to the NCAA Tournament. They are one of three “original” Division I schools with that distinction (Army, the Citadel). Elon has also never made it to the Big Dance.
Returning Champion:
Charleston has won two in a row. Last year’s squad needed overtime to defeat Stony Brook. In the NCAA Tournament, they went toe-to-toe with super-paced Alabama, losing by a reasonable 109-96 score. In 2023, they lost to San Diego State (who made a run to the title game) by six.
Format:
The CAA has 14 squads, and it invites all of them. The top four squads get byes to the quarterfinals, while seeds 5-10 get byes to the second round.
Contenders:
Towson (21-10, 16-2) is cruising into this tournament, winning 15 of their last 16 games. The Tigers play a low-tempo game, averaging only 69.5 PPG (they allow 65.9, 33rd in the nation). A team that plays within margins this small is ripe for an upset, but they keep winning.
UNC Wilmington (24-7, 14-4) is the league’s highest-scoring team (79.9 PPG) and ranks 79th in efficiency. The Seahawks feature a balanced attack. Only one player has started every game (Donovan Newby) and 11 players average 10+ minutes. When you average nearly 80 points per game and nobody scores 15, that is balance.
The CAA plays its share of Quadrant 1 games, but only one team has a win. That team is Charleston. It isn’t the most impressive Quad 1 win (St. Joseph’s), but it qualifies. 6’10” senior forward Ante Brzovic averages 18.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG, and 2.9 APG.
Sleeper:
Hampton (16-15, 8-10) didn’t have a good season but their ending is intriguing. Down the stretch, they defeated UNC Wilmington and lost on the road to Drexel by one and Towson by three. As the #10 seed, they must defeat Northeastern to get another shot at Wilmington. They split with Northeastern during the season.
How it should play out:
14 teams. Many of them bunched together. While Monmouth went 12-19, the Hawks are 10-8 in league play. The top seed plays a lot of close games. The only two teams that would shock me if they win this tournament are Stony Brook and North Carolina A&T.
Winner:
I could toss a 14-sided coin and be nearly as accurate as a more data-driven approach. I didn’t feature them, but can this be the year for William & Mary? They are a fun squad that tosses up a bunch of three-point shots (29.9, 8th in the nation).
William & Mary makes their first NCAA Tournament.