History:
South Dakota State (7), North Dakota State (4), and Oral Roberts (2) are the only winners of this tournament from 2012 – 2024.
Oral Roberts was the talk of the town in the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The Golden Eagles, as a #15 seed, knocked off Ohio State and Florida on their way to the Sweet 16. In the Sweet 16, they lost to Arkansas by two, missing a 3-pointer at the buzzer. In 2014, in a 12-vs-5 matchup, North Dakota State defeated Oklahoma in overtime.
In other words, while winning in the NCAA Tournament is uncommon, don’t underestimate the team that emerges.
Returning Champion:
South Dakota State defeated upstart Denver (7 seed) to win another title. They lost to Iowa State in a 15-vs-2 matchup.
Format:
All nine squads make the field, with #8 playing #9 in the first round. Saint Thomas, one of the league’s top squads, is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament as their transition from Division III continues.
Contenders:
Omaha (19-12, 13-3) will attempt to add some uniqueness to the wall of champions. However, despite being the top seed, they are only the fourth-best team according to the NET. They trail Saint Thomas (22-9, 12-4), South Dakota State (20-11, 11-5), and North Dakota State (21-10, 10-6). The team “in the middle” is South Dakota (18-13, 9-7).
North Dakota State is strong offensively, ranking 52nd in efficiency (KenPom). They average 81 points per game and feature two top scorers (Jackson Moni (20.6 PPG) and Jacari White (17.1)). The Bison shoot a lot of 3-pointers (30.1) and hit on an impressive 39.6% (4th in the nation).
Omaha is a vulnerable #1 seed. They don’t have a top attribute, though they can hit 3-pointers (36.7%). This squad of juniors and seniors is looking for its first NCAA Tournament bid. Before this season, they hadn’t won more than half of their conference games since 2012-2013.
For St. Thomas to win, their offense has to be shooting on all cylinders. Ranked 64th in efficiency and 14th in PPG, the Tommies can light it up from 3-point range (a trend in this league) and shoot 49.4% overall (7th in the nation). Defensively? The less said about that, the better.
South Dakota State defeated McNeese in a battle of top mid-major schools earlier this season. Additionally, they lost to Boise State by one in a Quad 1 contest. The league’s most dominant squad over the last several years isn’t quite up to previous standards, but they are dangerous.
Like Omaha, South Dakota has yet to make the NCAA Tournament. The Coyotes play one of the fastest tempos in the country (3rd), scoring a crazy 85.5 PPG. Despite their pace, they aren’t efficient and rely on volume to score. Defensively, they allow 83.2 PPG. In other words, expect a track meet when they are on the other side of the court.
Sleeper:
North Dakota (11-20, 5-11) is the best I can come up with. The Summit League is a league of haves and have-nots. The top five teams won 18 – 22 games, while the bottom four squads lost 19 – 22.
How it should play out:
If you like scoring, this is your league. Three teams average 80+ points per game (a 4th averages 79.9). Only Kansas City (67.5) gives up less than 70 PPG. If a top team gets to the NCAA Tournament, they should earn a seed that gives them an outside shot at a win.
St. Thomas winning this tournament would be a feat, though if that happens, the loser would go to the NCAA Tournament.
Winner:
St. Thomas. I think they are the best team, though it should be a fun ride.