1. Auburn (27-2) (1) – Any team that wins ten Quadrant 1 games should be taken seriously. The Tigers have 16.
2. Duke (26-3) (2) – Since their loss to Clemson, Duke has won 6 straight by an average of 31.7.
3. Houston (25-4) (4) – Meanwhile, Houston has won eight in a row. Three of their four losses occurred in overtime.
4. Tennessee (24-5) (5) – Their conquest of Alabama was their 10th Quadrant 1 win. Their offensive rating does scare me, however.
5. Florida (25-4) (3) – In a conference filled with Quad 1 opportunities, the Gators are only 6-4. Some of that is tied into their non-conference slate. The Gators are one of three teams in the top ten offensively and defensively (Duke, Houston).
6. Alabama (23-6) (6) – Have they fallen off the pace for a #1 seed? Perhaps, but they finish with Florida and Auburn.
7. Michigan State (24-5) (8) – The surge continues, as the Spartans are 10-3 in Quadrant 1 and are nearly guaranteed the #1 seed in the Big Ten. I hate to say that a Tom Izzo team is a “sneaky” Final Four contender, but given the hype of the SEC and Duke, it fits.
8. St. John’s (26-4) (7) – The Final Four isn’t an impossible dream, but the offense will need to steal a game at some point.
9. Texas Tech (22-7) (9) – A slow-tempo team with a strong offensive efficiency will drive opponents crazy. Houston and Duke are the same, but their defenses are better.
10. Wisconsin (22-7) (10) – The Badgers have a solid upper-tier resume. They should have Elite Eight dreams.
11. Missouri (21-8) (15) – Like Alabama, their offense will carry them. Comfortably in the second tier within the SEC, the Tigers are 6-8 in Quad 1.
12. Clemson (24-5) (16) – The 3-OT loss at home to Georgia Tech keeps them from the top seed in the ACC. This senior-laden squad made a surprise run to the Elite Eight in 2024. The relative weakness of the ACC doesn’t mean you should ignore them.
13. Maryland (22-7) (11) – 6 Quad 1 wins, no bad losses, and a soul-crushing loss to Michigan State. Their non-conference schedule is the biggest knock.
14. Iowa State (22-7) (12) – The Cyclones had #1 seed dreams at one point. A big win over Arizona stopped a 4-5 slide.
15. Saint Mary’s (27-4) (17) – Some squads with slow tempos aren’t as good defensively as you think. The Gaels are different, as they are methodical offensively and tough defensively. They cruised to the WCC title and will be the #1 seed.
16. Marquette (22-7) (19) – It is easy to forget that the Golden Eagles went 4-0 against the Big Ten/SEC (Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, Georgia). They get a second crack at UConn and St. John’s to close the season.
17. Louisville (23-6) (20) – Like Clemson, the Cardinals are kicking themselves for losing to Georgia Tech. It’s their only loss after losing to Kentucky on 12/14.
18. Michigan (22-7) (13) – The Wolverines were smoked at home by Illinois, likely ending their Big Ten title dreams. Positives? 8-4 in Quad 1 and only two Quad 4 games.
19. Kentucky (19-10) (18) – The Wildcats are 9-9 in Quadrant 1. The unbalanced league schedule meant two games against Tennessee (sweep) and Alabama (swept). Like Missouri, a top offense and not-so-great defense.
20. Oregon (21-8) (22) – Four straight wins after a 1-6 stretch destroyed their Big Ten dreams.
21. BYU (21-8) (24) – Incredible how a team that was going nowhere (15-8 without any big wins) has three Quad 1 wins in their last four games. Can they keep it going against Iowa State?
22. Purdue (20-9) (NR) – The Boilermakers stopped a 4-game losing streak by knocking off UCLA. They have eight Quad 1 wins (16 Quad 1 games)
23. Arizona (19-10) (21) – A weird season for the Wildcats. The computers love them (top 20 offense and defense; 7 Quad 1 wins; zero bad losses), but they are 2-4 in their last six games. It’s no wonder they are considered one of the unluckiest teams in the nation.
24. Texas A&M (20-9) (14) – The Aggies struggle against the top of the SEC and have four straight losses. Their defense remains strong, however, and they proved they can beat good teams in the non-conference.
25. Memphis (23-5) (NR) – I’ll finally give in and rank them, but I am still skeptical. Nice road win over UAB.
Dropped Out:
Mississippi State (20-9) (23) – I said it before conference play began: Once the SEC schedule begins, we will see separation. Being 20-9 and 8-8 within the conference isn’t anything to be ashamed of, but the top of the conference has exposed some weaknesses.
Mississippi (20-9) (25) – Nice bounceback over bubble squad Oklahoma, but Auburn torched them. The Rebels are over .500 within the conference (9-7) and own zero losses outside Quadrant 1. They finish with Tennessee and Florida.
Just Missed:
UC San Diego (26-4) – The Tritons are suddenly 34th in the NET and are legitimate at-large contenders if they were to lose in the conference championship game (I don’t think they make it with a loss before that). The Quad 4 home loss to Seattle is a dagger, though it borders on Quad 3.
VCU (24-5) – The Rams are cruising and looking strong for an at-large. Tip: Don’t lose at Duquesne this week.
Illinois (19-11) – Their spot in the NCAA Tournament was never in doubt, but they needed that road destruction of Michigan.
Vanderbilt (20-9) – Michigan, Louisville, and Missouri get a lot of press for their turnaround seasons. Vanderbilt was 9-23 last season and hasn’t sniffed the NCAA Tournament since 2017. First-year coach Mark Byington (32-4 for James Madison last season) has authored the resurgence.