Top 25:
1. Auburn (21-2) (1) – How good are the Tigers? I would have debated whether they should stay at #1 even if Duke won their game.
2. Alabama (20-3) (3) – Auburn’s loss allowed Alabama to tie them atop the SEC. They still play each other twice. The first game is this weekend. Defense won’t be their calling card, but they are now in the Top 40 in defensive efficiency.
3. Duke (20-3) (2) – The Blue Devils proved one thing: It is hard to go unbeaten in conference play, no matter how much better you are than the competition. They are still the lone team in the top five offensively and defensively.
4. Florida (20-3) (6) – The lone knock on the Gators is a mediocre non-conference schedule. A win at Auburn erases a little of that.
5. Houston (19-4) (4) – The Cougars are the only power conference school without a road loss.
6. Tennessee (20-4) (5) – Beat Missouri and Oklahoma (road game) and move down a spot? It comes down to rewarding Florida for their win.
7. Purdue (19-5) (7) – The Boilermakers are 11-1 in their last 12 games and 14-5 in Quad 1/Quad 2 contests.
8. Texas A&M (18-5) (10) – The Aggies have four SEC road wins (Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Missouri).
9. St. John’s (21-3) (12) – The Red Storm needed to prove themselves last week and passed the test. Villanova (road) and red-hot Creighton will try to humble them.
10. Wisconsin (19-5) (14) – The Badgers are 9th best in OFFENSIVE efficiency and their tempo rating is mid-tier. That isn’t their typical style (304th in Adjusted Tempo last season)
11. Arizona (17-6) (17) – One of the hottest teams in the country, the Wildcats – Houston game on Saturday may determine the Big 12 champion.
12. Texas Tech (18-5) (9) – Played Arizona within nine on the road and are the only team to beat the Wildcats since December 14th.
13. Michigan State (19-4) (11) – The Spartans lost a pair on the West Coast but bounced back with a home win over Oregon. Their one game against Purdue is coming soon.
14. Iowa State (18-5) (8) – TCU isn’t very good, but the Cyclones needed that blowout to stop the bleeding. No longer a #1 seed contender.
15. Michigan (18-5) (22) – Only one blowout loss and one game in Quadrant 4. The Cardiac Wolverines’ have outscored their opponents by 18 in their last five wins.
16. Marquette (18-6) (13) – This may be too high for the slumping Golden Eagles, but it’s still a solid profile. Their schedule eases up before revenge games against UConn and St. John’s to close the season.
17. Maryland (18-6) (15) – Their poor non-conference slate knocks them down, but they are 2-3 in Quadrant 1A games, all within in the Big Ten. All three losses were close road games (Purdue, Ohio State, Oregon)
18. Ole Miss (18-6) (NR) – The Rebels didn’t play a great non-conference schedule. However, the strength of the SEC has pushed their overall SOS to one of the toughest. Does it get easier? That’s funny, as their remaining schedule includes Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida.
19. Mississippi State (17-6) (25) – The Bulldogs received a much-needed break, playing only one game last week (a road win over Georgia). Their next three games? Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M.
20. Clemson (19-5) (20) – The Tigers put pressure on Duke with their Saturday win, as they own the conference tiebreaker. The profile is middling but (obviously) tournament-worthy.
21. Kansas (16-7) (16) – The computers still love the Jayhawks, thanks to a strong non-conference schedule and only six Quad 3/Quad 4 games. That said, they aren’t playing near expectations, following up a quality win over Iowa State with a loss to Kansas State.
22. Missouri (17-6) (18) – The Tigers lost two games last week by a combined seven points against Tennessee (road) and Texas A&M. They’ll live.
23. Kentucky (16-7) (19) – Their profile is up-and-down but the Wildcats are 7-6 in Quadrant 1. They are a mid-tier SEC team, which is nothing to be ashamed about.
24. Creighton (18-6) (NR) – The Blue Jays are (suddenly) the only threat to a St. John’s conference championship. If they defeat UConn and St. John’s this week, they will be in the driver’s seat.
25. Saint Mary’s (21-4) (21) – An 8-4 record in Quadrant 1/2. Their loss to San Francisco isn’t damaging, as their NET is in the Top 25.
Dropped Out:
UConn (16-7) (23) – Their defense is not championship caliber. Can they flip the switch? Certainly. But they have to prove it.
Oregon (16-8) (24) – The Ducks are 40th in the KenPom and 35th in the NET. Their strength of schedule + Quad 1 wins will impress the committee but the bleeding must stop.
Just Missed:
Memphis (20-4) – Plenty of wins, a middling computer profile. I feel like the outlier by keeping them out of the Top 25.
New Mexico (20-4) – The Lobos have taken over the Mountain West, courtesy of six straight wins. The committee will appreciate their strong schedule, though they will be docked for that awful home loss to New Mexico State (Quadrant 4).
UCLA (18-6) – After a strong start to their campaign, the Bruins fell off the radar during a 1-5 stretch. Now? They have won seven straight since that stretch, including wins over Wisconsin, Oregon, and Michigan State.
Louisville (18-6) – Their profile includes zero bad losses ane enough quality wins to keep them on the edge.