Most disappointing teams, by conference:
Big East:
Seton Hall (6-15, 1-10; NET: 193) – Nobody expected the Pirates to contend for a Big East title, but the reigning NIT champions should be better than this.
Big Ten:
Rutgers (11-11, 4-7; NET: 76) – It was a tough call between the Scarlett Knights and Indiana (14-8; NET: 65). However, everyone wanted to see their top freshman compete in the NCAA Tournament. That seems like a faraway dream.
Big 12:
Cincinnati (12-9, 2-8; NET: 48) – The Bearcats maintain a solid NET despite their 0-6 record in Quadrant 1 and seven Quadrant 4 wins. The good news is that their NET gives them a launching point if they were to wake up.
ACC:
North Carolina (13-10, 6-5; NET: 44) – Like Cincinnati, their NET (likely bolstered by a strong schedule and lack of bad losses) is within the at-large range. However, they are a brutal 1-9 in Quadrant 1 and it is hard to justify them being in contention.
SEC:
Arkansas (13-8, 2-6; NET: 47) – Another squad with a middling NET, Arkansas is bolstered by their conference and neutral court win over Michigan. However, they are 2-7 in Quadrant 1. How will the committee treat the bottom of the nation’s top league?
The race for the top seeds:
Auburn and Duke are in great shape to enter the NCAA Tournament as #1 seeds. Both have potential roadblocks. For Auburn, the Tigers plan in a tough conference, which has pros (plenty of Quadrant 1 games!) and cons (the potential for an extended cold stretch). Duke is the opposite – they play in a weaker conference, giving them little margin for error. For example, Auburn losing to South Carolina would be less damaging (by a long shot) than Duke losing to Miami.
The NET isn’t the only tool used to determine #1 seeds, but it is the NCAA’s official ranking system so it needs to be taken seriously. The teams that appear to be in contention for the other #1 seeds are Houston, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, and Iowa State. Three squads play in the SEC, while the other two are in the Big 12. Can a team from another conference sneak in? I don’t see it. The Big Ten has six teams in the NET Top 20, but the highest-ranked team (Purdue) is 10th in the NET and 8th in the KenPom. Expect the league to have a steady stream of squads on the 2-5 lines.
The Mountain West watch:
Once again, this conference is bunching up, which will cause a headache for the committee. Four teams are in the NETT Top 50, though only Utah State (19-3; NET: 39) is in the Top 40. It looks like a 2-bid league with the potential for three if we get an upset in the conference tournament. I do not see it falling to a 1-bid league.
Top 25:
1. Auburn (20-1) (1) – The Tigers are 12-1 (!!) in Quadrant 1. One of the most remarkable regular seasons in recent history, but no one remembers if you don’t finish it.
2. Duke (19-2) (2) – 15 straight wins, including an annihilation of North Carolina. That said, the Blue Devils have been unable to put away the ACC, as Clemson is hanging in there.
3. Alabama (19-3) (7) – Their win over Georgia was their 11th 90+ point game. Still have two games with Auburn.
4. Houston (17-4) (5) – The Cougars are 1-3 in overtime games (their other loss was by five against Auburn on a neutral court)
5. Tennessee (18-4) (6) – Talk about revenge: They lost to Florida by 30 on 1/7. They defeated Florida by 20 on 2/1, holding one of the country’s best offenses to 44 points.
6. Florida (18-3) (4) – Brutal loss, but they remain one of three teams with a Top 10 offense and defense (KenPom). The other teams are Duke and Houston (Auburn misses by a nose).
7. Purdue (17-5) (9) – The Boilermakers lost one of college’s biggest stars this season and continue to motor along. Impressive.
8. Iowa State (17-4) (3) – Their loss to Kansas State, for now, falls into Quadrant 3. That won’t impact their tournament status but can eventually impact their tournament seed.
9. Texas Tech (17-4) (17) – Though their non-conference schedule was bad, the Red Raiders have still shut people like me up. They are 5-0 in conference road games, including their conquest of Houston.
10. Texas A&M (17-5) (13) – The Aggies are 12-5 in Quad 1/2 (7-5 in Quad 1). They have offensive struggles but their defense is elite.
11. Michigan State (18-3) (8) – The computers will hate you for losing to USC, but the road game still falls into Quadrant 1 (barely).
12. Saint John’s (19-3) (15) – The Red Storm is jumping up in the NET, but continues to be suppressed by their conference. We will find out how good they are (games vs. Marquette and UConn this week).
13. Marquette (18-4) (10) – Their loss to UConn falls into Quadrant 2 (for now). That said, they are an impressive 11-4 in Quad 1/2.
14. Wisconsin (17-5) (11) – Their loss at Maryland helps the Terrapins more than it hurts the Badgers.
15. Maryland (17-5) (19) – A squad with plenty of question marks most of the season is on a 4-game winning streak that includes wins vs. Illinois (road), Indiana (road), and Wisconsin (home). They have yet to lose a game by more than six.
16. Kansas (15-6) (12) – I’ve hinted at it for a month: There is something off with the ultra-talented Jayhawks. They need to flip that switch.
17. Arizona (15-6) (NR) – The hot Wildcats put a stamp on their revival with their win over Iowa State. The win over Arizona State was “chippy,” to put it mildly.
18. Missouri (17-4) (24) – If you want to get someone’s attention, win an SEC road game by 27 points.
19. Kentucky (15-6) (16) – A win over Tennessee on Wednesday primed them for a climb. Their home loss to Arkansas on Saturday knocked them back down a peg or two.
20. Clemson (18-4) (21) – The Tigers can shock the world by taking over the ACC lead with a win over Duke this weekend.
21. Saint Mary’s (20-3) (23) – Just like that, the Gaels go from zero Quad 1 wins to two, as they beat Santa Clara (road) and Gonzaga. Additionally, their loss to Boise State has climbed into Quadrant 1.
22. Michigan (16-5) (25) – Rutgers is underachieving, but beating them in New Brunswick is still an achievement. Their profile is amplified by having only one Quadrant 4 game.
23. UConn (16-6) (NR) – For their own confidence, they badly needed that win over Marquette. Now, it’s about the follow-up.
24. Oregon (16-5) (18) – The Ducks are hanging on by a thread, but I remain impressed by their eight Quad 1 wins.
25. Mississippi State (16-6) (14) – The Bulldogs were handed an 8-game gauntlet. They went 3-5. The schedule doesn’t ease up, and they need to start winning these games.
Dropped Out:
Illinois (15-7) (20) – The computers remain in love, which makes sense since they have split 12 Quadrant 1 games. I believe results matter, and the Fighting Illini are 2-4 in their last six games.
Louisville (16-6) (22) – The lack of power in the ACC impacts the league’s top teams any time they lose. Losing to Georgia Tech on the road was, at one time, nothing to be ashamed about.
Just Missed:
Creighton (16-6) – Work is needed, but the Blue Jays have won seven in a row and are 2-1 against St. John’s/Marquette/UConn. They play the three squads again, in succession between 2/8 and 2/16.
Ole Miss (16-6) – It’s been a rough stretch for the Rebels, but they are playing close road games in the SEC (including a win over Alabama).
Memphis (18-4) – What hurts Memphis? The losses to Arkansas State and Temple stand out (though Arkansas State is a sneaky Top 100 NET team). However, when you play in a middling conference, you will be hurt by winning close games against Rice, Wichita State, and East Carolina. The Tigers’ standout wins likely = a bid if they lose the conference tournament, but their margin for error isn’t wide.