“How many true National Championship contenders are there?”
I like to look at teams in the Top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. According to KenPom, seven teams currently fit that criteria:
Duke
Auburn
Houston
Iowa State
Florida
Illinois
Arizona (20th in both!)
Teams that fall just outside the criterion are Tennessee (22nd offense), Purdue (21st defense), Michigan (24th defense), and Michigan State (21st offense).
It isn’t shocking that the top five teams listed above are the top five in the KenPom.
If you were filling out your bracket today, you would do well having those 11 teams win at least a game or two. You will lose a few to the inevitable upsets, but your gains should outweigh that.
Thankfully for everyone, we aren’t filling out brackets today.
Top 25:
1. Auburn (17-1) (1) – The Tigers are passing tests, as they mauled Mississippi State before grinding out at Georgia. They are now 10-1 (that isn’t a misprint) in Quad 1 games.
2. Duke (16-2) (2) – The KenPom ranks them third in offense and second in defense. They don’t play until Saturday, a tricky road game against Wake Forest.
3. Iowa State (15-2) (3) – The “Giant Killers” known as West Virginia humbled the Hawkeyes, who maintain their position at number 3 anyway.
4. Florida (16-2) (4) – “They lost to Missouri at home and maintain their position?!?!” Would you be shocked if losing to Missouri at home falls into Quadrant 1?
5. Tennessee (16-2) (5) – If you haven’t figured it out yet, there is no such thing as a “bad” loss in the SEC. Their one-point road loss against Vanderbilt barely moves the needle.
6. Houston (14-3) (10) – Two of their three losses are in overtime. The third was a neutral court loss to Auburn. They go to Kansas this weekend.
7. Alabama (15-3) (6) – The closest thing to the old-school Oklahoma and Loyola Marymount squads (they average 90.2 PPG). That said, they couldn’t survive a defensive battle against Ole Miss.
8. Michigan State (16-2) (12) – One of the few top teams to survive the week unscathed, the Spartans have won 11 in a row (7-0 in Big Ten play)
9. Kansas (13-4) (8) – Maybe they are the victims of expectations, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to call them underachievers.
10. Purdue (15-4) (19) – The Boilermakers are a computer’s dream, thanks to four road and Quadrant 1 triumphs. It doesn’t hurt that the KenPom ranks their schedule as the third toughest.
11. Marquette (15-3) (7) – It will cost you if you lose games outside of the top tier in the Big East. The Golden Eagles are the only conference squad in the NET Top 25.
12. Kentucky (14-4) (11) – It’s hard to win a shootout against Alabama, but Kentucky played them within five (102-97). The Wildcats own six Quadrant 1 triumphs, the third-highest total in the nation.
13. Texas A&M (14-4) (9)—Their defense, much-heralded early in the season, is now 11th in the KenPom. Of course, that is still a top defensive squad.
14. Mississippi State (15-3) (14) – No match for Auburn, but bounced back nicely to take an overtime game over in-state rival Mississippi.
15. Wisconsin (15-3) (20) – They aren’t beating the best in the Big Ten, but they are piling up wins.
16. Michigan (14-4) (13) – The metrics are solid, and the Wolverines have yet to suffer a multi-possession loss. Essentially, this squad isn’t good for your heart. Last year’s disaster wasn’t good for your soul.
17. Oregon (15-3) (15) – The Ducks have lost some of their edge, but their eight Quadrant 1 wins trail only Auburn. By the way, yes – it is crazy that their three losses are home games.
18. Ole Miss (15-3) (21) – I will reward a team that splits road games against Alabama and Mississippi State.
19. Illinois (13-5) (16) – Another computer darling, the Fighting Illini lost a tough one on the road to Michigan State on Sunday. They own a Top 20 offense and defense (KenPom)
20. West Virginia (13-4) (NR) – The Mountaineers have wins over Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas (road), and Iowa State. Their resume doesn’t impress the computers much, but it impresses me.
21. Missouri (15-3) (NR) – We have a new intriguing SEC team in town, as the Tigers knocked off Florida on the road. Their biggest issue is an awful non-conference slate, though they did knock off Kansas.
22. St. John’s (16-3) (NR) – You can only beat what is on your schedule. I still don’t love the singular Quadrant 1 win and 12 Quad 3/4 triumphs. The Red Storm don’t play Marquette or UConn until February.
23. UConn (13-5) (17) – Liam McNeeley’s injury doesn’t help, but where’s the depth?
24. Clemson (15-4) (NR) – To their credit, the Tigers were one of the few teams to win during the ACC-SEC Challenge (Kentucky). Can they give Duke a run? We will find out in a few weeks.
25. Saint Mary’s (16-3) (NR) – The winners of six straight, the Gaels are making their case for a potential at-large bid.
Dropped Out:
Gonzaga (14-6) (18) – A random road loss to a decent Oregon State squad wasn’t alarming. A home loss to Santa Clara, who torched the Bulldogs with a 103-point effort, is alarming.
Memphis (14-4) (22) – Is it unfair to expect a team to win every conference game? Yes. The Tigers own an impressive five Quadrant 1 wins but their losses can be exasperating. Given their history, they’ll be back in the Top 25 soon enough.
Arizona (11-6) (23) – The Wildcats don’t have to do much to make the Big Dance. I almost kept them in the Top 25 over Saint Mary’s.
Utah State (16-2) (24) – Losing in the Mountain West won’t be as forgiving this season. They are 41st in the NET and 3-0 in Quadrant 1, both impressive metrics.
Georgia (14-4) (25) – Back-to-back games against Tennessee and Auburn set them up for failure. To their credit, they hung tough with Auburn.
Just Missed:
Maryland (14-5) – The Terrapins are interesting, but their 0-4 Quadrant 1 record sticks out. That said, a 4-1 mark in Quadrant 2 keeps them afloat.
Louisville (14-5) – Michigan gets a lot of press for their turnaround, but Louisville’s is also impressive. The Cardinals have eight straight wins and three Quadrant 1 triumphs to fall back on.
Texas Tech (13-4) – The KenPom loves the Red Raiders, ranking them 12th despite a poor non-conference slate. While that is alarming, they have a win over Arizona and took Iowa State to overtime.
Vanderbilt (15-3) – I am including a fourth team this week for evaluation purposes. The Commodores’ win over Tennessee elevates their profile, but they must do more. The good news is that there are opportunities: Their next four games are against Alabama, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Florida. Three of those four games are on the road.