Month: January 2025

A look at some of the mid-major/smaller leagues. The chances for multiple bids from these leagues are small.

In the Missouri Valley, a 2-team race is developing between Drake (18-2, 8-2; NET: 66) and Bradley (18-3, 9-1; NET: 64). They are iffy at-large candidates. Drake won their first meeting this season. Maybe a sweep and an appearance in the conference title game will earn them some respect in the war room.

The Mountain West should earn multiple bids, but it won’t be like recent seasons. Utah State (18-2, 8-1; NET: 31) and San Diego State (13-5, 6-3; NET: 43) are the likeliest candidates and the committee would likely look hard at New Mexico (17-4, 9-1; NET: 56) if they win the regular-season crown.

The usual suspects in the West Coast Conference (St. Mary’s and Gonzaga) are looking good. While neither is a serious threat for an at-large bid, Oregon State and Washington State are boosting the conference’s profile. Over half the conference is in the NET Top 100. Last season, only three of nine teams had that distinction.

The A-10 is going to struggle to earn a second bid. VCU (16-4, 6-1; NET: 45) would be their best hope at an at-large bid if they don’t win the conference tournament. Dayton (14-6, 4-3; NET: 69) turned some heads by playing North Carolina and Iowa State close before beating UConn and Marquette. A 3-game conference losing streak halted their momentum.

Memphis (16-4, 6-1; NET: 43) and North Texas (15-4, 6-1; NET: 48) may intrigue the committee out of the AAC but the rest of the conference is dreadful. Memphis’ five Quadrant 1 wins will help them. While all three of their Quadrant 1 games were close, North Texas couldn’t win any of them. That would hurt their resume.

The Big West’s UC-Irvine (18-3, 8-1; NET: 50) and the Southland’s McNeese (15-5, 9-0; NET: 59) are likely on the bubble of the bubble. UC-Irvine has a Quadrant 1 win (over San Diego) and three Quad 2 conquests. Meanwhile, McNeese lost to Alabama by eight and Mississippi State by four.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (18-1) (1) – You show strength by how often you blow teams out. You show heart when you win a close, defensive struggle.
2. Duke (17-2) (2) – See Auburn.
3. Iowa State (17-2) (3) – The Cyclones own six Quad 1 wins and are 6-2 in road/neutral contests.
4. Florida (18-2) (4) – The Gators are an 18-2 SEC squad floating under the radar. How does that happen?
5. Houston (16-3) (6) – I can watch highlights every day for the next five years and still not understand how they won that game against Kansas. By the way, for those wondering how the team that dominated the AAC would do in the Big 12: Houston is now 23-3 in regular-season Big 12 play over the last two seasons.
6. Tennessee (17-3) (5) – It is justified to say that their occasional offense struggles are scary.
7. Alabama (17-3) (7) – It is justified to say that their occasional (?) defensive struggles are scary. But what a fun team to watch.
8. Michigan State (17-2) (8) – It isn’t the most mesmerizing 12-game winning streak in history, but wins are wins.
9. Purdue (16-5) (10) – How they manhandled Michigan after that loss to Ohio State was impressive. No bad losses, strong schedule.
10. Marquette (17-3) (11) – Five Quadrant 1 victories, including wins over Purdue and Wisconsin (both in double digits)
11. Wisconsin (16-4) (15) – I can forgive a 2-point road loss on the West Coast (UCLA). They mauled Nebraska upon going home.
12. Kansas (14-5) (9) – It’s a Top 10 resume on the KenPom and NET – however, it feels like something is missing. That said, 99 times out of 100, they win that game against Houston.
13. Texas A&M (15-5) (13) – The 6-5 Quad 1 record (10-5 Quad 1/2) is a separator. Their defense is the calling card.
14. Mississippi State (16-4) (14) – If ranking teams feels like a chore, you aren’t alone. The Bulldogs are 2-3 in their last five games, but those losses are to Kentucky, Auburn, and Tennessee. Comfortably mid-pack in the SEC.
15. St. John’s (17-3) (22) – They are a Top 25 NET squad despite a 1-3 record in Quadrant 1 and a whopping 12 wins in Quad 3/4. The Big East isn’t helping their cause, but they are winning the games.
16. Kentucky (14-5) (12) – Like Texas A&M, they own a 6-5 Quad 1 record. However, they are 0-0 in Quad 2. Wins over Duke and Florida enhance their resume.
17. Texas Tech (15-4) (NR) – Their non-conference SOS is bad. That said, the Red Raiders are 6-1 in their last seven games (the loss was an overtime thriller to Iowa State).
18. Oregon (16-4) (17) – The Ducks aren’t the team they were earlier in the season, but the 8-2 Quad 1 record can’t be ignored. Is that slightly misleading? Yes, as five of those wins are in Quad 1B. Could they have peaked early?
19. Maryland (16-5) (NR) – Their week consisted of back-to-back road wins over Illinois (by 21) and Indiana. Like Texas Tech, there are serious questions over their non-conference SOS (one of the worst in the country).
20. Illinois (14-6) (19) – Every team is entitled to a blowout loss from time to time. They had no answers for red-hot Maryland.
21. Clemson (17-4) (24) – The Tigers are flying through the underbelly of a weakened ACC. Big home game against Duke on 2/8.
22. Louisville (15-5) (NR) – The Cardinals are an impressive 5-5 in Quadrant 1, though only one of those wins is in the upper half. Unfortunately, they don’t get a second shot at Duke.
23. Saint Mary’s (18-3) (25) – It’s a fun resume, but trust that I realize they are 0-0 in Quadrant 1.
24. Missouri (16-4) (21) – Like Maryland, they own one of the worst non-conference SOS. However, they have piled up some impressive wins in the SEC.
25. Michigan (14-5) (16) – The Purdue loss was the first time they were non-competitive this season.

Dropped Out:

Ole Miss (15-5) (18) – How do you rate three consecutive SEC losses, all of which were by small margins? That’s the tricky part about ranking SEC squads.
West Virginia (13-6) (20) – The Mountaineers haven’t been computer darlings, and losing to Arizona State and Kansas State doesn’t help their cause. This year’s Jekyll and Hyde squad?
UConn (14-6) (23) – The Huskies aren’t in any tournament danger, but their computer ranking is falling fast. Their defense is 132nd in the KenPom. Ouch.

Just Missed:

Vanderbilt (16-4) – Close call between them and Michigan for #25. Their bad non-conference slate was the difference maker (other teams with bad non-conference slates have better overall resumes)
Arizona (13-6) – 9-1 in their last ten games + a solid schedule. Dangerous.
Creighton (14-6) – A few weeks ago, I commented on how the Big East was a 3-team league. The Blue Jays are starting to change that, as the KenPom ranks them better than UConn.

“How many true National Championship contenders are there?”

I like to look at teams in the Top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. According to KenPom, seven teams currently fit that criteria:
Duke
Auburn
Houston
Iowa State
Florida
Illinois
Arizona (20th in both!)

Teams that fall just outside the criterion are Tennessee (22nd offense), Purdue (21st defense), Michigan (24th defense), and Michigan State (21st offense).

It isn’t shocking that the top five teams listed above are the top five in the KenPom.

If you were filling out your bracket today, you would do well having those 11 teams win at least a game or two. You will lose a few to the inevitable upsets, but your gains should outweigh that.

Thankfully for everyone, we aren’t filling out brackets today.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (17-1) (1) – The Tigers are passing tests, as they mauled Mississippi State before grinding out at Georgia. They are now 10-1 (that isn’t a misprint) in Quad 1 games.
2. Duke (16-2) (2) – The KenPom ranks them third in offense and second in defense. They don’t play until Saturday, a tricky road game against Wake Forest.
3. Iowa State (15-2) (3) – The “Giant Killers” known as West Virginia humbled the Hawkeyes, who maintain their position at number 3 anyway.
4. Florida (16-2) (4) – “They lost to Missouri at home and maintain their position?!?!”  Would you be shocked if losing to Missouri at home falls into Quadrant 1?
5. Tennessee (16-2) (5) – If you haven’t figured it out yet, there is no such thing as a “bad” loss in the SEC. Their one-point road loss against Vanderbilt barely moves the needle.
6. Houston (14-3) (10) – Two of their three losses are in overtime. The third was a neutral court loss to Auburn. They go to Kansas this weekend.
7. Alabama (15-3) (6) – The closest thing to the old-school Oklahoma and Loyola Marymount squads (they average 90.2 PPG). That said, they couldn’t survive a defensive battle against Ole Miss.
8. Michigan State (16-2) (12) – One of the few top teams to survive the week unscathed, the Spartans have won 11 in a row (7-0 in Big Ten play)
9. Kansas (13-4) (8) – Maybe they are the victims of expectations, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to call them underachievers.
10. Purdue (15-4) (19) – The Boilermakers are a computer’s dream, thanks to four road and Quadrant 1 triumphs. It doesn’t hurt that the KenPom ranks their schedule as the third toughest.
11. Marquette (15-3) (7) – It will cost you if you lose games outside of the top tier in the Big East. The Golden Eagles are the only conference squad in the NET Top 25.
12. Kentucky (14-4) (11) – It’s hard to win a shootout against Alabama, but Kentucky played them within five (102-97). The Wildcats own six Quadrant 1 triumphs, the third-highest total in the nation.
13. Texas A&M (14-4) (9)—Their defense, much-heralded early in the season, is now 11th in the KenPom. Of course, that is still a top defensive squad.
14. Mississippi State (15-3) (14) – No match for Auburn, but bounced back nicely to take an overtime game over in-state rival Mississippi.
15. Wisconsin (15-3) (20) – They aren’t beating the best in the Big Ten, but they are piling up wins.
16. Michigan (14-4) (13) – The metrics are solid, and the Wolverines have yet to suffer a multi-possession loss. Essentially, this squad isn’t good for your heart. Last year’s disaster wasn’t good for your soul.
17. Oregon (15-3) (15) – The Ducks have lost some of their edge, but their eight Quadrant 1 wins trail only Auburn. By the way, yes – it is crazy that their three losses are home games.
18. Ole Miss (15-3) (21) – I will reward a team that splits road games against Alabama and Mississippi State.
19. Illinois (13-5) (16) – Another computer darling, the Fighting Illini lost a tough one on the road to Michigan State on Sunday. They own a Top 20 offense and defense (KenPom)
20. West Virginia (13-4) (NR) – The Mountaineers have wins over Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas (road), and Iowa State. Their resume doesn’t impress the computers much, but it impresses me.
21. Missouri (15-3) (NR) – We have a new intriguing SEC team in town, as the Tigers knocked off Florida on the road. Their biggest issue is an awful non-conference slate, though they did knock off Kansas.
22. St. John’s (16-3) (NR) – You can only beat what is on your schedule. I still don’t love the singular Quadrant 1 win and 12 Quad 3/4 triumphs. The Red Storm don’t play Marquette or UConn until February.
23. UConn (13-5) (17) – Liam McNeeley’s injury doesn’t help, but where’s the depth?
24. Clemson (15-4) (NR) – To their credit, the Tigers were one of the few teams to win during the ACC-SEC Challenge (Kentucky). Can they give Duke a run? We will find out in a few weeks.
25. Saint Mary’s (16-3) (NR) – The winners of six straight, the Gaels are making their case for a potential at-large bid.

Dropped Out:

Gonzaga (14-6) (18) – A random road loss to a decent Oregon State squad wasn’t alarming. A home loss to Santa Clara, who torched the Bulldogs with a 103-point effort, is alarming.
Memphis (14-4) (22) – Is it unfair to expect a team to win every conference game? Yes. The Tigers own an impressive five Quadrant 1 wins but their losses can be exasperating. Given their history, they’ll be back in the Top 25 soon enough.
Arizona (11-6) (23) – The Wildcats don’t have to do much to make the Big Dance. I almost kept them in the Top 25 over Saint Mary’s.
Utah State (16-2) (24) – Losing in the Mountain West won’t be as forgiving this season. They are 41st in the NET and 3-0 in Quadrant 1, both impressive metrics.
Georgia (14-4) (25) – Back-to-back games against Tennessee and Auburn set them up for failure. To their credit, they hung tough with Auburn.

Just Missed:

Maryland (14-5) – The Terrapins are interesting, but their 0-4 Quadrant 1 record sticks out. That said, a 4-1 mark in Quadrant 2 keeps them afloat.
Louisville (14-5) – Michigan gets a lot of press for their turnaround, but Louisville’s is also impressive. The Cardinals have eight straight wins and three Quadrant 1 triumphs to fall back on.
Texas Tech (13-4) – The KenPom loves the Red Raiders, ranking them 12th despite a poor non-conference slate. While that is alarming, they have a win over Arizona and took Iowa State to overtime.
Vanderbilt (15-3) – I am including a fourth team this week for evaluation purposes. The Commodores’ win over Tennessee elevates their profile, but they must do more. The good news is that there are opportunities: Their next four games are against Alabama, Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Florida. Three of those four games are on the road.

I have asked this question a few times, and it feels appropriate now:

What happens when the SEC starts to eat each other?

The idea that nearly the entire conference will get into the NCAA Tournament is still valid. Mid-major leagues aren’t loading up with potential at-large bids, and the ACC/Big East aren’t juicy bid leagues either. Someone has to grab those bids, and the SEC/Big Ten/Big 12 figure to grab most of them.

But how do we justify teams with bad conference records? Potential tournament teams Oklahoma, Arkansas, LSU, Texas, and South Carolina have started 0-3. A tough conference doesn’t mean everyone will finish between 10-8 and 8-10. Good teams will likely finish 6-12 or 5-13. How do you handle them? This is a story that will evolve as the season goes on.

The Big Ten will have a similar storyline, though their teams figure to be more tightly bunched. The Big 12 is top-heavy (and that top is impressive!). Cincinnati, like Rutgers in the Big Ten, is one of the nation’s most disappointing teams.

As for the mid-majors, it isn’t promising for the “little guys” this season. The WCC features Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, two teams hardly seen as mid-major programs. If we look beyond them and the Mountain West teams, the highest-ranked team (NET) is San Diego, currently 53rd thanks to an impressive road win over Utah State. It won’t end up being a resume for at-large dreams, however. The A-10 is a dead zone, as Dayton’s slump has dropped them to 61st.

Top 25:

1. Auburn (15-1) (1) – The Tigers have yet to play the best of the SEC, but they won two conference road games last week.
2. Duke (14-2) (4) – Imagine combining an elite defense with a super freshman scorer. The Blue Devils are a problem.
3. Iowa State (14-1) (3) – A miracle win on Saturday. The Cyclones are the only team besides Duke with a top-ten offensive and defensive rating.
4. Florida (15-1) (6) – Individual games shouldn’t influence rankings much because you will spin in circles. However, their win over Tennessee is impossible to ignore.
5. Tennessee (15-1) (2) – Did their loss to Florida unmask a less-than-ideal offense? Or should we understand that elite teams sometimes have bad days?
6. Alabama (14-2) (5) – Texas A&M’s defense is legit. The Crimson Tide scored 94 points against the Aggies. Alabama is averaging 96.3 PPG in three SEC contests.
7. Marquette (14-2) (8) – The only Big East squad with a top 20 offense and defense.
8. Kansas (12-3) (12) – It’s been over a month since the Jayhawks allowed an opponent to score more than 62 points.
9. Texas A&M (13-3) (7) – Their trademark defense faltered against Alabama. To their credit, the offense mostly kept up.
10. Houston (12-3) (15) – The ranking systems love them, and rightfully so. However, they remain 0-3 in Quadrant 1.
11.  Kentucky (13-3) (10) – Fun with college basketball: The Wildcats have conference wins over Florida and Mississippi State but weren’t competitive against Georgia.
12. Michigan State (14-2) (16) – Their 5-0 Big Ten start includes three road wins.
13. Michigan (13-3) (18) – UCLA is slumping, but beating the Bruins by 19 on the road is wildly impressive. The Wolverines have yet to lose a game by more than two points.
14. Mississippi State (14-2) (13) – Definition of a 6-game gauntlet: Kentucky (loss), Auburn (road), Mississippi (home), Tennessee (road), South Carolina (road), Alabama (home).
15. Oregon (15-2) (11) – Back-to-back conference road wins = dropping four spots? One of my favorite sayings is that a drop in my rankings often isn’t a reflection of anything you did wrong.
16. Illinois (12-4) (9) – “Didn’t they beat Oregon by a zillion on the road?” Yes. “Didn’t you say you Florida’s destruction of Tennessee is why they are ahead of them?” As I said, spin yourself in circles.
17. UConn (13-4) (14) – The Huskies are 111th in adjusted defense. I know they are dealing with an injury to a significant player, but their defense wasn’t spectacular with him either.
18. Gonzaga (14-4) (20) – The Bulldogs will remain loved by the computers. The schedule likely offers only one more Quadrant 1 opportunity (St. Mary’s on the road. The home game might fall into Quadrant 2.
19. Purdue (13-4) (NR) – Their six Big Ten games have been decided by double digits (5-1). The Boilermakers own two wins over the big, bad SEC (Alabama (home) and Ole Miss (neutral)).
20. Wisconsin (13-3) (23) – They have put their 3-game losing streak to Michigan, Marquette, and Illinois in the rearview mirror.
21.  Ole Miss (14-2) (NR) – Have I been too harsh? I don’t love their schedule, but they are 4-2 in Quadrant 1 and are off to a 3-0 start in the SEC.
22. Memphis (13-3) (22) – I won’t move them up or down this week. The Tigers have impressive wins and a horrible loss. They defeated East Carolina by only four at home.
23. Arizona (10-5) (NR) – A team needs to be special for me to rank them at 10-5. The Wildcats are better than you think, though I won’t ignore the 2-5 mark in Quadrant 1.
24. Utah State (16-1) (NR) – The Mountain West isn’t at last year’s level, but is still the top-ranked conference (NET) outside the “Big 5.” The Aggies’ 2-point loss to the University of San Diego suppresses their computer numbers.
25. Georgia (14-2) (NR) – Their SEC schedule is front-loaded. So far, the Bulldogs are holding their own (road loss to Ole Miss, home wins over Kentucky and Oklahoma). Their reward for good effort? Games this week against Tennessee (road) and Auburn (home). Yikes.

Dropped Out:

Oklahoma (13-3) (17) – Three straight losses after their 13-0 start. The computers weren’t in love with them at 13-0. At 13-3, they approach bubble status.
UCLA (11-5) (19) – The Bruins are 1-4 in their last five games. They have lost by a combined 37 points in their last two games.
Pittsburgh (12-4) (21) – Competiton for Duke? A 76-47 loss (followed by a home loss to Louisville) says otherwise.
Nebraska (12-4) (24) – The margins in a competitive Big Ten are small. Losing to Iowa in overtime on the road isn’t horrible. Losing by 36 at Purdue? That’s enough for a demotion.
West Virginia (12-3) (25) – As long as they don’t collapse, those wins over Gonzaga (neutral), Arizona (neutral), and Kansas (road) will carry a lot of weight in the committee room.

Just Missed:

Baylor (11-4) – The Bears have an interesting resume. Their 3-4 Quad 1 record includes a 0-4 mark in Top 25 games. They are firmly on the Top 25 bubble.
St. John’s (14-3) – The Big East has an obvious leader (Marquette) with two teams in the “second tier” (UConn and St. John’s). The Red Storm lacks a bad loss but has a singular Quad 1 victory.
Maryland (13-4) – Firmly in the Big Ten conversation, the Terrapins have run into bad luck: Their four losses are by a combined 19 points. Three of those games were against top competition (Marquette, Purdue, Oregon).

Top 25:

1. Auburn (13-1) (1) – The Tigers are on cruise control. Only two of their 13 wins were within single digits.
2. Tennessee (14-0) (2) – Only one of their 14 wins (Illinois) was within single digits.
3. Iowa State (12-1) (4) – Their 19-point romp over Baylor was a statement win.
4. Duke (12-2) (5) – It is safe to ask if there is any competition for the Blue Devils in the ACC.
5. Alabama (12-2) (6) – The Crimson Tide have four 100+ point efforts (Illinois and Oklahoma are amongst the victims)
6. Florida (13-1) (3) – The 5th highest-scoring squad in the nation was on the losing end of a 105-100 thriller against Kentucky. A style clash with Tennessee is next.
7. Texas A&M (12-2) (9) – Texas wasn’t much of a rival, as the Aggies torched them by 20. Scary good defensively.
8. Marquette (13-2) (10) – The metrics show they are the Big East’s best team.
9. Illinois (11-3) (22) – The Illini went to the West Coast and destroyed Oregon before squeaking past Washington.
10. Kentucky (12-2) (13) – Their high-octane offense outlasted Florida’s. The SEC is insanely strong, and the contrasting styles should make for some fun games.
11. Oregon (13-2) (8) – The Ducks tanked in the KenPom after that awful loss to Illinois, but I will stay bullish.
12. Kansas (10-3) (7) – The Jayhawks are losing annoying games and it is fair to ask why.
13. Mississippi State (13-1) (18) – How exactly did they lose to Butler in the non-conference?
14. UConn (12-3) (14) – The Huskies haven’t lost since Maui, but oof, you need to ignore many things to place them in the top ten.
15. Houston (10-3) (15) – I still want to see a signature win to move them up.
16. Michigan State (12-2) (17) – Road conference wins are gold, and the Spartans earned an impressive one over Ohio State.
17. Oklahoma (13-1) (11) – There were many questions about Oklahoma. Getting annihilated by Alabama doesn’t give them a favorable answer.
18. Michigan (11-3) (21) – Only two Big Ten squads are unbeaten in conference play (Michigan State and Michigan). Their three losses are by a combined five points.
19. UCLA (11-3) (12) – They have a win over Gonzaga but losses to North Carolina and Nebraska in their last three games.
20. Gonzaga (12-4) (20) – Pepperdine gave them a fight, but *yawn*.
21. Pittsburgh (12-2) (25) – The Panthers may be good enough to scare Duke.
22. Memphis (12-3) (NR)—Two weeks ago, I said I would never rank them again. I am a glutton for punishment.
23. Wisconsin (11-3) (NR) – Their wins over Arizona (starting to get their act together) and Pitt are looking more impressive.
24. Nebraska (12-2) (NR) – The Cornhuskers have a sneaky top-ten defense.
25. West Virginia (11-2) (NR) – Don’t look now, but the Mountaineers have wins over Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kansas. Their losses to Pitt and Louisville aren’t looking so bad.

Dropped Out:

Cincinnati (10-3) (16) – A bad non-conference schedule followed with back-to-back losses to Kansas State and Arizona to start Big 12 play. Ouch.
St. John’s (12-3) (19) – If you haven’t figured it out, signature wins are high on my list for team strength. The Red Storm continues to search for theirs.
Dayton (11-4) (23) – The Flyers will have to lick their wounds after a 20-point loss to George Washington.
Maryland (11-4) (24) – The games were close, but they lost to Washington and Oregon on the road.

Just Missed:

Mississippi (12-2) – I have yet to rank the Rebels because of schedule concerns.
Clemson (12-3) – Nice win over Kentucky and a 4-0 conference start. They don’t play Duke until February.
Utah State (14-1) – They are off to a big start in the Mountain West.