I have asked this question a few times, and it feels appropriate now:
What happens when the SEC starts to eat each other?
The idea that nearly the entire conference will get into the NCAA Tournament is still valid. Mid-major leagues aren’t loading up with potential at-large bids, and the ACC/Big East aren’t juicy bid leagues either. Someone has to grab those bids, and the SEC/Big Ten/Big 12 figure to grab most of them.
But how do we justify teams with bad conference records? Potential tournament teams Oklahoma, Arkansas, LSU, Texas, and South Carolina have started 0-3. A tough conference doesn’t mean everyone will finish between 10-8 and 8-10. Good teams will likely finish 6-12 or 5-13. How do you handle them? This is a story that will evolve as the season goes on.
The Big Ten will have a similar storyline, though their teams figure to be more tightly bunched. The Big 12 is top-heavy (and that top is impressive!). Cincinnati, like Rutgers in the Big Ten, is one of the nation’s most disappointing teams.
As for the mid-majors, it isn’t promising for the “little guys” this season. The WCC features Gonzaga and St. Mary’s, two teams hardly seen as mid-major programs. If we look beyond them and the Mountain West teams, the highest-ranked team (NET) is San Diego, currently 53rd thanks to an impressive road win over Utah State. It won’t end up being a resume for at-large dreams, however. The A-10 is a dead zone, as Dayton’s slump has dropped them to 61st.
Top 25:
1. Auburn (15-1) (1) – The Tigers have yet to play the best of the SEC, but they won two conference road games last week.
2. Duke (14-2) (4) – Imagine combining an elite defense with a super freshman scorer. The Blue Devils are a problem.
3. Iowa State (14-1) (3) – A miracle win on Saturday. The Cyclones are the only team besides Duke with a top-ten offensive and defensive rating.
4. Florida (15-1) (6) – Individual games shouldn’t influence rankings much because you will spin in circles. However, their win over Tennessee is impossible to ignore.
5. Tennessee (15-1) (2) – Did their loss to Florida unmask a less-than-ideal offense? Or should we understand that elite teams sometimes have bad days?
6. Alabama (14-2) (5) – Texas A&M’s defense is legit. The Crimson Tide scored 94 points against the Aggies. Alabama is averaging 96.3 PPG in three SEC contests.
7. Marquette (14-2) (8) – The only Big East squad with a top 20 offense and defense.
8. Kansas (12-3) (12) – It’s been over a month since the Jayhawks allowed an opponent to score more than 62 points.
9. Texas A&M (13-3) (7) – Their trademark defense faltered against Alabama. To their credit, the offense mostly kept up.
10. Houston (12-3) (15) – The ranking systems love them, and rightfully so. However, they remain 0-3 in Quadrant 1.
11. Kentucky (13-3) (10) – Fun with college basketball: The Wildcats have conference wins over Florida and Mississippi State but weren’t competitive against Georgia.
12. Michigan State (14-2) (16) – Their 5-0 Big Ten start includes three road wins.
13. Michigan (13-3) (18) – UCLA is slumping, but beating the Bruins by 19 on the road is wildly impressive. The Wolverines have yet to lose a game by more than two points.
14. Mississippi State (14-2) (13) – Definition of a 6-game gauntlet: Kentucky (loss), Auburn (road), Mississippi (home), Tennessee (road), South Carolina (road), Alabama (home).
15. Oregon (15-2) (11) – Back-to-back conference road wins = dropping four spots? One of my favorite sayings is that a drop in my rankings often isn’t a reflection of anything you did wrong.
16. Illinois (12-4) (9) – “Didn’t they beat Oregon by a zillion on the road?” Yes. “Didn’t you say you Florida’s destruction of Tennessee is why they are ahead of them?” As I said, spin yourself in circles.
17. UConn (13-4) (14) – The Huskies are 111th in adjusted defense. I know they are dealing with an injury to a significant player, but their defense wasn’t spectacular with him either.
18. Gonzaga (14-4) (20) – The Bulldogs will remain loved by the computers. The schedule likely offers only one more Quadrant 1 opportunity (St. Mary’s on the road. The home game might fall into Quadrant 2.
19. Purdue (13-4) (NR) – Their six Big Ten games have been decided by double digits (5-1). The Boilermakers own two wins over the big, bad SEC (Alabama (home) and Ole Miss (neutral)).
20. Wisconsin (13-3) (23) – They have put their 3-game losing streak to Michigan, Marquette, and Illinois in the rearview mirror.
21. Ole Miss (14-2) (NR) – Have I been too harsh? I don’t love their schedule, but they are 4-2 in Quadrant 1 and are off to a 3-0 start in the SEC.
22. Memphis (13-3) (22) – I won’t move them up or down this week. The Tigers have impressive wins and a horrible loss. They defeated East Carolina by only four at home.
23. Arizona (10-5) (NR) – A team needs to be special for me to rank them at 10-5. The Wildcats are better than you think, though I won’t ignore the 2-5 mark in Quadrant 1.
24. Utah State (16-1) (NR) – The Mountain West isn’t at last year’s level, but is still the top-ranked conference (NET) outside the “Big 5.” The Aggies’ 2-point loss to the University of San Diego suppresses their computer numbers.
25. Georgia (14-2) (NR) – Their SEC schedule is front-loaded. So far, the Bulldogs are holding their own (road loss to Ole Miss, home wins over Kentucky and Oklahoma). Their reward for good effort? Games this week against Tennessee (road) and Auburn (home). Yikes.
Dropped Out:
Oklahoma (13-3) (17) – Three straight losses after their 13-0 start. The computers weren’t in love with them at 13-0. At 13-3, they approach bubble status.
UCLA (11-5) (19) – The Bruins are 1-4 in their last five games. They have lost by a combined 37 points in their last two games.
Pittsburgh (12-4) (21) – Competiton for Duke? A 76-47 loss (followed by a home loss to Louisville) says otherwise.
Nebraska (12-4) (24) – The margins in a competitive Big Ten are small. Losing to Iowa in overtime on the road isn’t horrible. Losing by 36 at Purdue? That’s enough for a demotion.
West Virginia (12-3) (25) – As long as they don’t collapse, those wins over Gonzaga (neutral), Arizona (neutral), and Kansas (road) will carry a lot of weight in the committee room.
Just Missed:
Baylor (11-4) – The Bears have an interesting resume. Their 3-4 Quad 1 record includes a 0-4 mark in Top 25 games. They are firmly on the Top 25 bubble.
St. John’s (14-3) – The Big East has an obvious leader (Marquette) with two teams in the “second tier” (UConn and St. John’s). The Red Storm lacks a bad loss but has a singular Quad 1 victory.
Maryland (13-4) – Firmly in the Big Ten conversation, the Terrapins have run into bad luck: Their four losses are by a combined 19 points. Three of those games were against top competition (Marquette, Purdue, Oregon).