A look at some of the mid-major/smaller leagues. The chances for multiple bids from these leagues are small.
In the Missouri Valley, a 2-team race is developing between Drake (18-2, 8-2; NET: 66) and Bradley (18-3, 9-1; NET: 64). They are iffy at-large candidates. Drake won their first meeting this season. Maybe a sweep and an appearance in the conference title game will earn them some respect in the war room.
The Mountain West should earn multiple bids, but it won’t be like recent seasons. Utah State (18-2, 8-1; NET: 31) and San Diego State (13-5, 6-3; NET: 43) are the likeliest candidates and the committee would likely look hard at New Mexico (17-4, 9-1; NET: 56) if they win the regular-season crown.
The usual suspects in the West Coast Conference (St. Mary’s and Gonzaga) are looking good. While neither is a serious threat for an at-large bid, Oregon State and Washington State are boosting the conference’s profile. Over half the conference is in the NET Top 100. Last season, only three of nine teams had that distinction.
The A-10 is going to struggle to earn a second bid. VCU (16-4, 6-1; NET: 45) would be their best hope at an at-large bid if they don’t win the conference tournament. Dayton (14-6, 4-3; NET: 69) turned some heads by playing North Carolina and Iowa State close before beating UConn and Marquette. A 3-game conference losing streak halted their momentum.
Memphis (16-4, 6-1; NET: 43) and North Texas (15-4, 6-1; NET: 48) may intrigue the committee out of the AAC but the rest of the conference is dreadful. Memphis’ five Quadrant 1 wins will help them. While all three of their Quadrant 1 games were close, North Texas couldn’t win any of them. That would hurt their resume.
The Big West’s UC-Irvine (18-3, 8-1; NET: 50) and the Southland’s McNeese (15-5, 9-0; NET: 59) are likely on the bubble of the bubble. UC-Irvine has a Quadrant 1 win (over San Diego) and three Quad 2 conquests. Meanwhile, McNeese lost to Alabama by eight and Mississippi State by four.
Top 25:
1. Auburn (18-1) (1) – You show strength by how often you blow teams out. You show heart when you win a close, defensive struggle.
2. Duke (17-2) (2) – See Auburn.
3. Iowa State (17-2) (3) – The Cyclones own six Quad 1 wins and are 6-2 in road/neutral contests.
4. Florida (18-2) (4) – The Gators are an 18-2 SEC squad floating under the radar. How does that happen?
5. Houston (16-3) (6) – I can watch highlights every day for the next five years and still not understand how they won that game against Kansas. By the way, for those wondering how the team that dominated the AAC would do in the Big 12: Houston is now 23-3 in regular-season Big 12 play over the last two seasons.
6. Tennessee (17-3) (5) – It is justified to say that their occasional offense struggles are scary.
7. Alabama (17-3) (7) – It is justified to say that their occasional (?) defensive struggles are scary. But what a fun team to watch.
8. Michigan State (17-2) (8) – It isn’t the most mesmerizing 12-game winning streak in history, but wins are wins.
9. Purdue (16-5) (10) – How they manhandled Michigan after that loss to Ohio State was impressive. No bad losses, strong schedule.
10. Marquette (17-3) (11) – Five Quadrant 1 victories, including wins over Purdue and Wisconsin (both in double digits)
11. Wisconsin (16-4) (15) – I can forgive a 2-point road loss on the West Coast (UCLA). They mauled Nebraska upon going home.
12. Kansas (14-5) (9) – It’s a Top 10 resume on the KenPom and NET – however, it feels like something is missing. That said, 99 times out of 100, they win that game against Houston.
13. Texas A&M (15-5) (13) – The 6-5 Quad 1 record (10-5 Quad 1/2) is a separator. Their defense is the calling card.
14. Mississippi State (16-4) (14) – If ranking teams feels like a chore, you aren’t alone. The Bulldogs are 2-3 in their last five games, but those losses are to Kentucky, Auburn, and Tennessee. Comfortably mid-pack in the SEC.
15. St. John’s (17-3) (22) – They are a Top 25 NET squad despite a 1-3 record in Quadrant 1 and a whopping 12 wins in Quad 3/4. The Big East isn’t helping their cause, but they are winning the games.
16. Kentucky (14-5) (12) – Like Texas A&M, they own a 6-5 Quad 1 record. However, they are 0-0 in Quad 2. Wins over Duke and Florida enhance their resume.
17. Texas Tech (15-4) (NR) – Their non-conference SOS is bad. That said, the Red Raiders are 6-1 in their last seven games (the loss was an overtime thriller to Iowa State).
18. Oregon (16-4) (17) – The Ducks aren’t the team they were earlier in the season, but the 8-2 Quad 1 record can’t be ignored. Is that slightly misleading? Yes, as five of those wins are in Quad 1B. Could they have peaked early?
19. Maryland (16-5) (NR) – Their week consisted of back-to-back road wins over Illinois (by 21) and Indiana. Like Texas Tech, there are serious questions over their non-conference SOS (one of the worst in the country).
20. Illinois (14-6) (19) – Every team is entitled to a blowout loss from time to time. They had no answers for red-hot Maryland.
21. Clemson (17-4) (24) – The Tigers are flying through the underbelly of a weakened ACC. Big home game against Duke on 2/8.
22. Louisville (15-5) (NR) – The Cardinals are an impressive 5-5 in Quadrant 1, though only one of those wins is in the upper half. Unfortunately, they don’t get a second shot at Duke.
23. Saint Mary’s (18-3) (25) – It’s a fun resume, but trust that I realize they are 0-0 in Quadrant 1.
24. Missouri (16-4) (21) – Like Maryland, they own one of the worst non-conference SOS. However, they have piled up some impressive wins in the SEC.
25. Michigan (14-5) (16) – The Purdue loss was the first time they were non-competitive this season.
Dropped Out:
Ole Miss (15-5) (18) – How do you rate three consecutive SEC losses, all of which were by small margins? That’s the tricky part about ranking SEC squads.
West Virginia (13-6) (20) – The Mountaineers haven’t been computer darlings, and losing to Arizona State and Kansas State doesn’t help their cause. This year’s Jekyll and Hyde squad?
UConn (14-6) (23) – The Huskies aren’t in any tournament danger, but their computer ranking is falling fast. Their defense is 132nd in the KenPom. Ouch.
Just Missed:
Vanderbilt (16-4) – Close call between them and Michigan for #25. Their bad non-conference slate was the difference maker (other teams with bad non-conference slates have better overall resumes)
Arizona (13-6) – 9-1 in their last ten games + a solid schedule. Dangerous.
Creighton (14-6) – A few weeks ago, I commented on how the Big East was a 3-team league. The Blue Jays are starting to change that, as the KenPom ranks them better than UConn.