This was the last “quiet” week. Conference play goes into full gear this week, and it should be entertaining in this age of super conferences. There is a lot of talk that the SEC will get nearly the entire conference into the tournament, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. We know a few of the teams will struggle in conference play. How would the committee view an 18-14 SEC team vs. a 28-5 Drake squad? I think they will lean towards the former, but the debates will be strong.
Top 25:
1. Auburn (11-1) (1) – The Tigers seemingly have zero weaknesses. If they do, the SEC competition will find it and exploit it.
2. Tennessee (12-0) (2) – We could circle that 1/7 “battle of the unbeaten” against Florida, but they have to get past Arkansas first.
3. Florida (13-0) (3) – For Florida to hold up their part of the bargain, they will need to beat Kentucky on the road.
4. Iowa State (10-1) (4) – A scheduling quirk has them playing Colorado three times (they played a “non-conference” tilt in Maui).
5. Duke (10-2) (5) – Their offense has climbed to 10th in efficiency, making the Blue Devils the only squad with a top-10 offense and defense.
6. Alabama (11-2) (6) – They will go as far as their explosive offense will take them.
7. Kansas (9-2) (7) – Played well against a good non-conference schedule. Iowa State is the conference’s best team, but Kansas isn’t far behind.
8. Oregon (12-1) (8) – None of the teams in my Top 10 are as surprising as the Ducks.
9. Texas A&M (11-2) (9) – A Top 20 non-conference schedule and a 6th-ranked defense is enough for me.
10. Marquette (11-2) (10) – As good as the Golden Eagles have been in recent years, their last Elite Eight appearance was in 2013. Is this the year that changes?
11. Oklahoma (13-0) (11) – The KenPom remains unconvinced (37th). They can prove how good they are in SEC play as they begin conference play with a game at Alabama followed by a home game against Texas A&M.
12. UCLA (11-2) (20)—Although their non-conference SOS was mediocre, they defeated Gonzaga and Arizona. Their conference road win over Oregon is as impressive as any this season.
13. Kentucky (10-2) (12) – They remain a mysterious SEC squad. Their resume is fine, but I wonder if their defense holds up.
14. UConn (10-3) (13) – Their defense is questionable, but their conference is more forgiving than Kentucky’s.
15. Houston (8-3) (14) – The KenPom is in love and I can see why (their offensive + defensive rankings = 14, behind only Duke and Auburn).
16. Cincinnati (10-1) (17) – Great defense, questionable schedule. Their vibe is similar to UCLA’s, but UCLA has bigger wins.
17. Michigan State (10-2) (18) – The Spartans want North Carolina to start rolling, as it would represent their only big non-conference conquest.
18. Mississippi State (11-1) (19) – Can the Bulldogs rise to the top of this most difficult conference?
19. St. John’s (11-2) (21) – Where would they be ranked if they hung on to defeat Baylor? Their two losses are by a combined four points.
20. Gonzaga (9-4) (16) – Final tally against the non-conference: Wins over Baylor, Arizona State, San Diego State, Indiana. Losses to West Virginia, Kentucky, UConn, and UCLA. The rest of their schedule is against a weakened WCC (St. Mary’s is the conference’s second-best squad according to the KenPom, ranked 48th)
21. Michigan (10-3) (22) – Western Kentucky was the unfortunate “next game” after that devastating loss to Oklahoma. They are a matchup nightmare.
22. Illinois (9-3) (23) – Massive showdown with Oregon to begin the new year.
23. Dayton (10-3) (24) – It will be interesting to see how the A-10 plays out this season. Dayton will be battle-tested (they own a Top 50 non-conference schedule). The next-best non-conference schedule is owned by St. Louis, at 188th.
24. Maryland (11-2) (25) – Given their dreadful non-conference slate, a big in-conference performance is required.
25. Pittsburgh (10-2) (NR) – We will find out how serious of a contender Pitt is when they visit Duke on January 7th.
Dropped Out:
San Diego State (8-3) (15) – They had the game against Utah State under control, only to lose it by a point. The Mountain West will be ultra-competitive.
Just Missed:
Arkansas (10-2) – They are close. They may jump into the Top 15 if they beat Tennessee on the road this week (they also play Ole Miss and Florida to open up SEC play – crazy)
Baylor (8-3) – Speaking of jumping into the Top 15, the Bears begin Big 12 play at Iowa State.
Memphis (10-3) – Their roller coaster non-conference is complete. They have the nation’s 4th strongest non-conference schedule, defeating UConn, Michigan State, Clemson, and Mississippi. Meanwhile, they lost a home game to Arkansas State.