What is going on in Piscataway?
Rutgers, with two of the best freshmen in the college game, is having trouble converting talent into wins. It isn’t the fault of those freshmen, as Dylan Harper averages 23.3 points per game while Airious (Ace) Bailey is at 17.6 points and 7.6 rebounds. Yet, they have losses to Kennesaw State and Princeton. They struggled with Seton Hall, a 5-7 squad ranked 136th in the KenPom. While it is justified to say that in-state rivalry games can be close regardless of strength, it stands out.
According to KenPom, the Scarlet Knights are a mediocre 67th offensively and an even-worse 107th defensively.
Is this a squad that is having trouble gelling? If so, expect them to be a dangerous Big Ten team as they figure that out. However, if they don’t figure it out, they will have nothing to show for having two potential lottery picks on their team. Not only is that bad for Rutgers basketball, it would be bad for the sport. This is the type of talent you want in the NCAA Tournament.
Top 25:
1. Auburn (11-1) (2) – The Tigers played a Top Ten non-conference schedule and romped. Their destruction of Purdue cemented their rise back to the top.
2. Tennessee (11-0) (1) – I say this often: Sometimes, a team does nothing to warrant a move down. It’s other teams that did something to warrant a move up. Will their 1/7 game against Florida be a battle of the unbeaten?
3. Florida (12-0) (3) – I won’t claim they played a strong non-conference schedule, but back-to-back wins over Virginia, Arizona State, and North Carolina aren’t so bad.
4. Iowa State (10-1) (4) – Their lone loss remains the 2-point thriller against Auburn.
5. Duke (10-2) (6) – I discussed their insane defense last week, saying their offense will improve. This week? Their offensive efficiency is up to 11th. Can anyone challenge them in the ACC?
6. Alabama (10-2) (7) – North Dakota exploited the Crimson Tide’s less-than-ideal defense. It won’t be a top-tier defense, but it needs to improve.
7. Kansas (9-2) (8) – While the Missouri and Creighton losses stand out, the Jayhawks defeated Duke, Michigan State, and North Carolina during a solid non-conference slate.
8. Oregon (11-1) (10) – While many teams had issues against the SEC, the Ducks went 2-0 against the nation’s top conference.
9. Texas A&M (10-2) (9) – Head-to-head isn’t everything (see: Duke ahead of Kansas), but I felt I needed to correct placing them ahead of Oregon last week. Their profiles don’t support it.
10. Marquette (11-2) (13) – In the top 20 in offense and defense, the Golden Eagles are currently the class of the Big East.
11. Oklahoma (12-0) (14) – Everyone knows I place value in SOS, and Oklahoma’s is not good. Their luck factor should have jumped to #1 after that win over Michigan.
12. Kentucky (10-2) (5) – Their defense is exploitable, and did Ohio State ever exploit it.
13. UConn (10-3) (12) – Speaking of exploitable defense, the Huskies are 98th in the KenPom. It explains why they are winning, but not convincingly. Still dangerous.
14. Houston (8-3) (18) – If you want my criticism, it is simple: Losing close games to good teams while destroying not-so-good teams. Further complicating my evaluation is their early-season Big 12 schedule isn’t strong.
15. San Diego State (8-2) (19) – Some metrics aren’t encouraging, but the Aztecs have played well against tough competition.
16. Gonzaga (9-3) (20) – One more game (UCLA) before they enter the part of their schedule where they can’t win the minds of fans (dominating the WCC again? Ho hum)
17. Cincinnati (10-1) (21) – Completed an Ohio sweep (Xavier, Dayton). Teams are scoring 59.5 PPG against the tough Bearcats defense.
18. Michigan State (10-2) (22) – Like many teams, the Spartans are on cruise control heading into 2025.
19. Mississippi State (11-1) (24) – The loss to Butler is weird, but it’s college basketball. I feel as if we are all underrating them.
20. UCLA (10-2) (11) – When the dust clears, North Carolina benefits more from the win than UCLA will be hurt by the loss.
21. St. John’s (10-2) (NR) – The metrics like them despite the lack of a defining win. I weigh both of those factors to place them 21st this week.
22. Michigan (9-3) (16) – The Wolverines are kicking themselves. Their three losses are by a combined five points. Trouble finishing close games, or just dumb basketball luck?
23. Illinois (8-3) (25) – Their win over Missouri (in St. Louis) was as good of a basketball game as you will find.
24. Dayton (10-3) (15) – The Flyers went 2-3 against non-conference heavyweights (North Carolina, Iowa State, UConn, Marquette, Cincinnati). The Atlantic-10 is a solid mid-major conference, and Dayton is well-positioned for an at-large come March.
25. Maryland (10-2) (NR) – I have been teasing the Terrapins for a few weeks, and it’s time to pull the trigger. Metrically, they are as good as anyone in the conference. That said, the schedule is terrible. Considering all factors, this feels appropriate.
Dropped Out:
Purdue (8-4) (17) – Unlike Maryland, Purdue has played a strong schedule. How do you balance a strong schedule vs. results? It’s always enough to fry your brain.
Memphis (9-3) (23) – I may never rank them again. No, not this year. Ever. I can’t figure them out, so why should I bother?
Just Missed:
Drake (11-0) – Three SEC schools and Drake are our final unbeaten. They survived an obstacle against Kansas State. Are they this year’s Indiana State?
Arkansas (10-2) – While Maryland and St. John’s were promoted from “Just Missed” to “In,” Arkansas continues to wait for their turn. One thing we know: The SEC will offer opportunities.
Pittsburgh (10-2) – That loss to Mississippi State resonates in my brain, but their overall profile is impressive. It’s early and things will change, but the NET has them solidly placed behind Duke as the ACC’s second-best squad.