This time of year, there are two types of teams: those that played in a big non-conference tournament and those that didn’t. Separating the two is difficult, as the teams that decide not to play in one of the big tournaments have easier weeks than those who do. However, only one team can win the tournaments, so many good teams will suffer at least one loss. In the case of UConn, it was three losses.
I place major stock in the tournaments. It’s our early-season barometer. That doesn’t mean Oklahoma and Oregon jump to #1 and #2 in the country, but it does place them in my Top 25.
The Big East
After justified complaining over their NCAA Tournament representation last season, the Big East entered this season with high expectations. Thus far, only Marquette is living up to those expectations (DePaul is 7-0 but has played the second-worst schedule in the nation (only Missouri’s is worse). Seton Hall has losses to Fordham, Hofstra, and Monmouth. St. John’s has a solid computer profile but lost its highest-profile game (Baylor). The Red Storm has also fallen to Georgia. Only three squads reside in the KenPom Top 50, weakening the conference’s position come Selection Sunday if things don’t change. Without a solid mid-conference, high-profile wins are harder to come by. Further weakening their position is the ending of the Gavitt Tipoff games, eliminating the chance to get big wins over the Big Ten Conference. They will play the Big 12, however.
Top 25:
1. Auburn (7-0) (3) – Strong wins, top offense, top ten defense. What more can we ask for from the #1 squad?
2. Kansas (7-0) (1) – They did nothing wrong to deserve a demotion. Auburn just did more to receive a promotion.
3. Tennessee (7-0) (9) – One of the top teams not to play in a tournament, their 22-point road win over Louisville carries more weight now than it did then.
4. Florida (8-0) (15) – A massive boost for the Gators, who dominated the ESPN Invitational (admittedly, it wasn’t a strong field but we saw plenty of upsets elsewhere). Their average margin of victory is 22 points.
5. Kentucky (7-0) (6) – The Wildcats own that win over Duke, but it’s otherwise Cupcake City so far. Their SOS (KenPom) is 272.
6. Marquette (8-0) (14) – Georgia’s 7-1 start helps Marquette (Georgia’s only loss), and it doesn’t hurt that they mauled Purdue by 18.
7. Gonzaga (7-1) (4) – Tough loss to West Virginia but a combination of tough schedule, elite offense, and good defense keeps them in the Top 10.
8. Oregon (8-0) (NR) – The surprise winners of the inaugural Players Era Festival, Oregon didn’t take an easy path. They knocked off Texas A&M and Alabama to secure the crown.
9. Wisconsin (8-0) (13) – Who knew their win over Pitt would look better than beating Arizona?
10. Iowa State (5-1) (10) – Lost by only 2 to Auburn and won their final two games in Maui.
11. Alabama (6-2) (12) – I am giving them extra credit for their schedule, but the defense needs to improve.
12. Purdue (7-1) (18) – They bounced back from the 18-point loss to Marquette to take the Rady Children’s Invitational. Like Alabama, they are strong offensively but need defensive improvement.
13. Memphis (6-1) (20) – Ran into the buzzsaw known as Auburn in the title game in Maui. Before that, they knocked off UConn and Michigan State.
14. Pittsburgh (7-1) (NR) – There is a lot to like in their early-season profile. That true road win over Ohio State (on a miracle 3-pointer) will resonate later.
15. Duke (5-2) (7) – Kansas lost one of their best players due to a flagrant foul, but the Blue Devils couldn’t take advantage. They have played a solid Top 50 schedule and the KenPom ranks their defense as the best. Can they conquer Auburn at home?
16. Baylor (5-2) (17) – Wins over St. John’s and Arkansas. Losses to Tennessee and Gonzaga. I think this is an appropriate ranking.
17. Cincinnati (6-0) (11) – How did an unbeaten team fall 6 spots? While others are challenging themselves, the Bearcats have one of the worst schedules in the country.
18. Michigan (6-1) (NR) – The Wolverines took care of business in the Fort Myers Tip-Off, knocking off previously-ranked Xavier.
19. Oklahoma (7-0) (NR) – The unexpected winners of the Battle 4 Atlantis, as they knocked off another surprising squad (Louisville) in the championship tilt.
20. Houston (4-3) (5) – The KenPom still loves them, as their “luck” ranking is amongst the worst in the country (5th unluckiest team in college basketball).
21. North Carolina (4-3) (8) – They survive in my Top 25 due to the closeness of their losses to tough competition. However, you have to start winning some of those contests.
22. Texas A&M (6-2) (NR) – The season-opening loss to UCF hurts them, but wins over Ohio State, Creighton, and Rutgers help their cause.
23. Dayton (6-2) (NR) – “How can you rank the 7th place team in Maui?” Easily. The Flyers could have easily been in the championship game (coulda, woulda, shoulda) before dismantling UConn in the 7th-place contest. This wasn’t your run-of-the-mill 7th-place finish.
24. Illinois (6-1) (NR) – The schedule leaves something to be desired, but they defeated Arkansas by 13 on a neutral court (lost to Alabama on a neutral court)
25. Drake (7-0) (23) – It will be hard for Drake to maintain a ranking unless they have a ridiculous season. Their schedule doesn’t support it. However, I will still give them credit for an early-season tournament win.
Dropped out:
UConn (5-3) (2) – The Huskies were handed the “easier” side of the bracket in Maui and fumbled the ball. Their schedule is awful, and Dan Hurley threatens to decline to play in these tournaments again. Grow up.
Indiana (5-2) (16) – Louisville might be a surprise team this season, but that is no excuse to lose by 28 on a neutral court. Indiana laid a giant egg in the Bahamas.
Arizona (3-4) (19)—The Battle 4 Atlantis tournament was wonky, and Arizona was a part of it, losing to Oklahoma and West Virginia.
Mississippi State (6-1) (21) – Losing to a Butler team that lost to Austin Peay is not a good look.
Xavier (7-1) (22) – They may not be ashamed of losing to Michigan, but the follow-up (3-point win over South Carolina State) raises questions.
Arkansas (5-2) (24) – Illinois humbled them and their offense has not clicked.
Creighton (5-3) (25) – Back-to-back-to-back losses to Nebraska, San Diego State, and Texas A&M knocks them out. They knocked off Notre Dame to finish 7th in the Players Era Festival.
Just Missed:
San Diego State (4-2) – Huge wins over Creighton and Houston place them on the cusp. Their losses are to Gonzaga and Oregon. As you may suspect, they have played one of the toughest schedules (3rd).
UCLA (6-1) – I had them ranked originally thanks to their incredible defensive ranking. However, I need to see them perform against tougher competition.
Arizona State (7-1) – Perhaps there is bias after hearing about Duke mauling them in a scrimmage. The Sun Devils lost to Gonzaga by only 8 in a true road game and defeated previously unbeaten St. Mary’s last time out.