March 2024 - Page 4 of 4 - Tom's Sports Blog

NCAA Basketball 3/7: The Bubble

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Wednesday, March 6th.

The bubble comes down to four things, if you want to simplify your life:

Win some Quad 1 games;
Don’t lose Quad 3/4 games;
Beat a few good opponents on the road/neutral court;
Play a respectable non-conference schedule.

If you are on the bubble, you don’t want the committee to look at your schedule and ding you. If you play in a major conference, there is zero excuse to play a poor non-conference schedule. The committee isn’t impressed by TCU going 11-2 in the non-conference when the only two good teams they played (Clemson, and Nevada) beat them. The committee will be happy to see that they have zero bad losses, but the Horned Frogs are giving the committee a reason to, at the very least, deflate their seeding.

You don’t need to dominate in Quad 1. Not every team is Houston, UConn, Purdue, etc. The committee is fine with something like 5-9 in Quad 1. You just have to win some games to impress. This is where a school like Wake Forest (2-6) loses ground.

Teams don’t need to be perfect in Quad 3/4, but they can’t afford many losses. This is where UNLV is having trouble boosting its resume. The Rebels are an impressive 5-3 in Quad 1, but are 7-3 in Quad 4. Losing three games in the worst quadrant is hard to overcome.

Finally, the NCAA Tournament isn’t played on a home court so the committee wants you to prove that you can win outside your friendly confines. South Carolina being the only team to defeat Tennessee on the Volunteers’ home court is going to be weighed significantly in their favor. It makes sense.

ACC

In:
Duke [24-6 (15-4), Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 9]
North Carolina [24-6 (16-3), Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 10]
Clemson [21-9 (11-8); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 24]

Bubble:
Wake Forest [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 42]
Pittsburgh [20-10 (11-8); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 44]
Virginia [21-9 (12-7); Quad 1: 2-6; NET: 50]
Virginia Tech [17-13 (9-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 54]

The nightmare is real: The ACC can be looking at only three bids this season. The fact that Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, and Virginia are 6-18 combined in Quadrant 1 is not instilling confidence.

Virginia can point to zero bad losses to enhance their resume. Furthermore, they have a neutral-court win over Florida and home win over struggling Texas A&M. Their win over Clemson stands out as a true road win.

I included Virginia Tech in this update because they have that extra Quad 1 win + they played a tough non-conference schedule, with wins over Iowa State and Boise State (plus a two-point neutral court loss to South Carolina). However, they are 2-9 on the road, beating only Louisville and North Carolina State. The latter is at least a decent road win.

Pittsburgh has seven road wins, including a huge one over Duke. The Panthers are 8-2 in their last ten games, so at least they are trying to stay relevant.

Bottom line? The four bubble teams need runs in the ACC Tournament. One of them likely will make that run and give the ACC a legitimate chance at a 4th bid. Your guess is as good as mine as to which team that will be.

American Athletic

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [23-7 (13-4); Quad 1: 2-3; NET: 34]
SMU [19-10 (11-6); Quad 1: 0-5; NET: 55]
Memphis [22-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 2-2; NET: 70]
South Florida [23-5 (16-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 74]

South Florida has won 15 straight games but is no closer to an at-large bid than they were a week ago. At one point, their NET was three digits, so a lot of credit to them to put themselves in this position. However, they are going to likely need to win the conference tournament to get their bid. They can point to Quad 4 losses to Central Michigan and Maine as the source of their misery.

The only team with a legitimate claim to an at-large remains Florida Atlantic. The Owls have that super win over Arizona + their neutral court win over Texas A&M has been upgraded to Quad 1. Five of their Quad 2 wins are in “Quad 2A,” including wins over Virginia Tech and Butler. The only reason why they aren’t locked in is two incredibly weird losses to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast.

For the most part, you can forget about SMU (zero Quad 1 wins) and Memphis (their late surge is likely not enough, though they can complete a sweep of Florida Atlantic on Saturday).

This is one league that bubble teams should watch in the next two weeks. If I am correct that Florida Atlantic is close to being locked in, there is a solid chance at some other team will win the tournament and steal a second bid.

Atlantic 10

Bubble:
Dayton [23-6 (13-4), Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 21]

Just like the American, the Atlantic 10 has bid-stealing possibilities. Dayton being just outside the Top 20 NET makes them as close to a lock as a mid-major can be. VCU is a tough upcoming matchup, so they won’t want to lose that game.

Richmond is 23-7 (15-2) and has won six in a row while Loyola Chicago is 21-8 (14-3) and winners of nine of their last ten. With teams like these and VCU, UMass, Saint Bonaventure, Duquesne, George Mason, and St. Joseph‘s, the odds that a team will steal a second bid from this league are high. The good news for bubble teams is that none of these squads are strong enough to give this league three bids.

Big 12

In:
Houston [27-3 (14-3), Quad 1: 12-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [24-6 (13-4); Quad 1: 7-5; NET: 8]
BYU [21-9 (9-8), Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 12]
Baylor [21-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 8-6; NET: 13]
Kansas [22-8 (10-7); Quad 1: 7-6; NET: 15]
Texas [19-11 (8-9); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 28]

Bubble
Texas Tech [21-9 (10-7); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 37]
TCU [20-10 (9-8); Quad 1: 2-10; NET: 38]
Oklahoma [20-10 (8-9); Quad 1: 3-9; NET: 41]
Cincinnati [17-13 (6-11); Quad 1: 3-10; NET: 45]

Texas is the 6th Big 12 squad to lock themselves into the tournament. My only trepidation is their non-conference slate which includes losses to UConn and Marquette. However, they have (mostly) won the games they were supposed to win while winning just enough tough games to separate themselves from other teams. It’s not a perfect resume – it’s a “good enough” resume.

Texas Tech has zero bad losses but defeated nobody of consequence in the non-conference. If the Red Raiders can beat Baylor on Saturday, that might be enough to promote them into a lock position.

TCU’s problem is their schedule. I have stated it all season – if you play nobody, you deserve to get dinged. Their supporters will point to their zero losses outside of Quadrant 1. When I look at teams I project to make the NCAA Tournament, TCU has defeated none of them since their January 30th win over Texas. I expect them to get a bid, but I don’t think it’s going to come without a sweat (or a long run in the Big 12 Tournament).

Oklahoma has similar issues, but the Sooners can at least point to decent non-conference wins over Iowa, Providence, and Arkansas. The Sooners haven’t won a game over a projected NCAA Tournament team since defeating BYU on February 6th. They pretty much only lose to good teams, but I would love to see more wins against good teams.

Cincinnati’s NET keeps them around, but just barely. In a tough league like this one, a good team will get lost in the shuffle. This season, that team is probably Cincinnati, a team that is only 6-11 since the calendar turned to 2024 (yes, their entire in-conference schedule).

Big East

In:
UConn [27-3 (17-2); Quad 1: 11-3; NET: 3]
Creighton [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 7-6; NET: 11]
Marquette [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 8-7; NET: 14]

Bubble:
Villanova [17-13 (10-9); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 29]
St. John’s [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 5-9; NET: 36]
Providence [19-11 (10-9); Quad 1: 5-8; NET: 61]
Seton Hall [19-11 (12-7); Quad 1: 6-7; NET: 63]
Butler [18-13 (9-11); Quad 1: 4-11; NET: 65]

This league is looking at the possibility of six bids. Maybe even seven if everything works out in their favor. Five is the floor.

I will start with this: Throw out Seton Hall‘s NET. If the committee is going to punish the Pirates, a team that will have 20 wins (13 in-conference), because they lost a home game to Rutgers back in December, they need to look hard in the mirror. Yes, I wish they won a big non-conference game. But they have done more than enough inside the conference, including wins over UConn, Marquette, Villanova, St. John’s (2), Butler (2), and Providence. Yes, they have wins over everyone listed above other than Creighton, and one of those losses was a 3-OT thriller.

Villanova lost to Penn, Saint Joseph’s, and Drexel. They counteracted that with wins over Texas Tech, North Carolina, and Memphis. It’s a strange resume that could end up with 15 losses if they lose to Creighton on Saturday and at some point in the Big East Tournament. In other words, they should make life easy on themselves and just beat Creighton.

St. John‘s earned two much-needed Quad 1 wins when their conquests of Utah and Villanova were elevated. Both wins can still slip back into Quad 2, so they are hoping both teams finish strong. Their path to the tournament looks like this: Don’t dare lose to Georgetown. Then, beat a good team in the Big East Tournament. Depending on how the bracket shakes out, that team might be one of the big three.

Providence has some of the same challenges as St. John‘s without a solid NET to fall back on. Unlike St. John’s, they can still improve their resume in the regular season as they play UConn on Saturday.

In case you do wonder why St. John’s and Providence have wildly different NET rankings despite some similar W-L metrics, some of it can be the offensive/defensive efficiency that is baked into the program. St. John’s is a Top 40 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency (KenPom), while Providence’s offensive efficiency is 125th. Plus, St. John’s played a better non-conference schedule, though Providence has the more impressive win (its best win is over Wisconsin, while St. John’s best win was over Utah). Anyway, when everything is added together, you end up the Red Storm having a better profile. However, as you have seen, the two teams continue to teeter on the bubble line. It’s very close. The committee doesn’t just rank by NET and choose teams.

Butler’s regular season is over, as they earned a win over Xavier in the season finale. The Bulldogs have zero bad losses but will likely require a significant Big East Tournament run to earn consideration.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [27-3 (16-3); Quad 1: 11-3; NET: 2]
Illinois [22-8 (13-6); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 16]
Michigan State [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 22]
Wisconsin [18-11 (10-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 23]

Bubble:
Nebraska [21-9 (11-8); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 43]
Northwestern [20-10 (11-8); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 53]
Iowa [18-12 (10-9); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 57]
Ohio State [18-12 (8-11); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 59]

Wisconsin is 2-7 in their last nine games, but their NET hasn’t fallen off the map. This is the advantage of playing a strong non-conference schedule + zero bad losses + a couple of strong in-conference road wins. That said, as impressive as five Quad 1 wins are, does anyone have any confidence in this school once the NCAA Tournament begins?

As for the bubble, it is a mess. Northwestern had a shot at a bid-clinching win over Michigan State but came up short. Still, they have five Quadrant 1 wins, including a non-conference win over Dayton. Their resume is dinged significantly by a non-conference slate that was pretty much Dayton and nobody else. “Nobody else” includes Division I independent Chicago State, who defeated Northwestern by a pair earlier this season. That was a devastating Quad 4 loss.

Nebraska went on the road in the non-conference to pull off a decent win over Kansas State. That win is important because it is one of only two road victories for the Cornhuskers (Indiana is the other). There’s work to do here, including securing a third road win over Michigan in the season finale.

Iowa’s non-conference slate was middle-of-the-road and included a neutral-court win over Seton Hall. Their best argument is four road wins, including conquests of Michigan State and Northwestern. It would serve them well to beat Illinois on Sunday + make a run in the Big Ten Tournament.

Ohio State is a late edition who has recent wins over Purdue, Michigan State (road), and Nebraska. Is their win over Alabama enough to overcome other flaws? Not likely. The Buckeyes have a tricky road game against Rutgers to close out their campaign.

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [26-5 (17-3); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 30]
Drake [25-6 (16-4); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 48]

By all appearances, both schools belong in the NCAA Tournament. Even though Drake didn’t play a power conference school in the non-conference, their schedule was still solid and included a neutral court win over Nevada. They split with Indiana State and swept third-place Bradley. They wish they could erase that bad 24-point neutral court loss to Stephen F. Austin.

Indiana State‘s Quadrant 4 loss to Illinois State stings but doesn’t need to be season-ending. They didn’t play nearly the same schedule as Drake, though they did play against power conference schools (102-80 loss to Alabama and 87-75 loss to Michigan State). Just like Drake, Indiana State swept third-place Bradley.

For this league to receive two bids, Indiana State and Drake must face each other in the title game.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [22-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 19]

Bubble:
Boise State [21-9 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 25]
New Mexico [22-8 (10-7); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 26]
Utah State [25-5 (13-4); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 32]
Nevada [25-6 (12-5); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 33]
Colorado State [21-9 (9-8); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 35]
UNLV [19-10 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 76]

This is the craziest league in the country, bar none. San Diego State is locked in. While its hard to lock in anyone else, the odds are better that six of these teams are in than it is that any one of them will be left out (other than UNLV).

Just breaking it down, you have Nevada with six Quad 1 wins (and 11 Quad 1 games) and only one bad loss (on the road to Wyoming). They have earned six straight wins heading into their season finale against UNLV, a game that could help determine who wins the conference title.

Speaking of the conference title, Utah State is firmly in the driver’s seat. If they beat New Mexico this weekend, they will win the outright championship. The Aggies played a good non-conference schedule, though they beat quality mid-major schools over playing bigger-name squads. The Cayman Islands Classic was a battle of mid-majors and it was Utah State that emerged as the winners. They haven’t suffered a bad loss this season.

I always say that the Mountain West teams know how to play the game, and Boise State is no different. The Broncos defeated St. Mary’s and VCU in the non-conference while losing to Washington State by five. Their 8-8 Quad 1/2 record is impressive, and they only have one bad loss (a home loss to UNLV, which is turning out to be not-so-bad).

Of every team in this league, none has a better non-conference win than Colorado State‘s destruction of Creighton. Their strong non-conference slate also includes wins over Colorado and Washington (neutral) + a 3-point loss to St. Mary’s. The Rams finished cold (2-4), though one of the wins was a 20-point victory over Utah State.

UNLV has five straight wins, including conquests of San Diego State and Colorado State. They have a shot at a 6th Quad 1 win when they travel to play Nevada in the season closer. Like Colorado State, they beat Creighton and played a close game against St. Mary’s (2-OT loss). They are done in by three Quad 4 losses + the fact that their early-season game at Dayton was canceled. What happens if they at least get to the finals of the Mountain West Tournament? We’ll see.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [23-6 (14-4); Quad 1: 7-3; NET: 4]
Washington State [23-7 (14-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 40]

Bubble:
Colorado [20-9 (11-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 31]
Utah [18-11 (9-9); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 46]
Oregon [19-10 (11-7); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 66]

At the top, the big question is whether Arizona has done enough to earn a #1 seed out West. If not, they will be the #2 team out West. That may seem like no big deal, but remember that the Wildcats lost a 2-15 game to Princeton last year.

Colorado has only that one Quad 1 win but does boast seven Quad 2 wins and zero bad losses. The Buffaloes will need to sweep their way through Oregon on Thursday/Saturday + win a Quad 1 game during the Pac-12 Tournament to feel somewhat safe.

Utah‘s resume has gained some traction. The Utes are haunted by a 3-OT home loss to Arizona and a couple of close calls in the non-conference (76-66 loss to Houston + 91-82 loss to St. John’s). To help counteract that, they own wins over BYU and St. Mary’s (road). Like with Colorado, it would be beneficial to sweep through Oregon on Thursday and Sunday.

Speaking of Oregon, they should be happy to welcome two bubble teams into their gym to close out their season. For now, the Ducks’ resume falls short, so a sweep of Colorado and Utah + two wins (I guess) in the Pac-12 Tournament would enhance their profile considerably. Failing that, the NIT is looking good.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [24-6 (14-3), Quad 1: 8-5; NET: 5]
Auburn [23-7 (12-5); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 6]
Alabama [20-10 (12-5); Quad 1: 4-9; NET: 7]
Kentucky [22-8 (12-5); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 20]
Florida [21-9 (11-6); Quad 1: 4-8; NET: 27]

Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-11 (8-9); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 39]
South Carolina [24-6 (12-5); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 47]
Texas A&M [17-13 (8-9); Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 49]
Ole Miss [20-10 (7-10); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 78]

How does a good team play a full season in the SEC and only compile one Quad 1 win? That said, Auburn is 8-0 in Quadrant 2 and 14-0 in Quad 3/4. This is an excellent team that just hasn’t been able to earn many top-top wins (except for their win over Alabama). Even their home win over South Carolina is Quad 2.

I have officially locked Florida in. Nobody is leaving them out at this point.

Mississippi State played a top 100 non-conference schedule that included wins over Washington State and Northwestern to take home the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. It also includes losses to Georgia Tech (road) and Southern. The Bulldogs ran into a gauntlet at the end of the season and haven’t responded well (0-3 against Kentucky, Auburn, and Texas A&M with a game against South Carolina to close out the season). I would place them in the “safe” category – just not locked in.

South Carolina played a terrible non-conference schedule, which is why their NET has been middling most of the year despite their 24-6 record. The Gamecocks have seven road wins this year, including one of the most impressive in all of college basketball (Tennessee). I would be shocked if they are left out.

Texas A&M has the weirdest resume in the group. You can’t ignore splitting 12 Quad 1 games, but you also can’t ignore four Quadrant 3 losses. In the non-conference, they beat Ohio State and Iowa State (neutral) while losing to Houston by four on a neutral court. If they beat Ole Miss in the finale and lose their first tournament game, would 18-14 be enough? It’s not a record that instills confidence, but it is one with a lot of quality included.

Ole Miss is 15-0 in Quad 3/4. Their lack of bad losses is impressive, but their overall resume is just not solid enough. Their only two wins since February 1st are against Missouri, and both games were close.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [28-3 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 52]

James Madison finished their regular season on a 10-game winning streak and will enter the Sun Belt Tournament as the #2 seed behind Appalachian State, the team that has given the Dukes nightmares all season (two of their three losses). I don’t think they are earning an at-large, but if they want a chance they need to get to the title game.

West Coast

In:

Gonzaga [24-6 (14-2); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 17]
St. Mary’s [24-7 (15-1); Quad 1: 4-3; NET: 18]

Bubble:

None.

Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are safely in the tournament and nobody else has a shot.

Conference Tournament Preview: Patriot League

Note: The first round of the Patriot League played out on March 5th. I missed it, but none of the contenders played.

History: Recent history has been all about Colgate, winners of three straight championships. Furthermore, the Raiders have played in the last six championship games, winning four of them. They are now tied with Bucknell and Holy Cross for the most championships in history, at six. Army and Loyola-Maryland have never won this tournament. Lehigh was the last team to win a main-bracket NCAA Tournament game when they defeated Duke in a 15-vs-2 upset back in 2012. The 2006 Bucknell squad defeated Arkansas in the 8-vs-9 game. The year before, the Bison defeated Kansas in a 14-vs-3 contest.

Returning Champion: Colgate. For the third straight season, Colgate dominated the tournament. They have played only one game within single digits in the past three years (a 77-69 win over Boston University in the 2021 quarterfinals).

Format: All ten schools make the tournament, with seeds 7-10 battling it out in the first round.

Favorite: Colgate (22-9, 16-2)

The only solace other teams can have is that perhaps Colgate hasn’t been quite as dominant this season as in years past. Both of their in-conference losses were at home, so opponents can look at that when they try to dethrone them (all tournament games are played at the site of the better-seeded team).

This is not an efficient or good offensive squad. They average 71.2 points on 46.6% shooting. Furthermore, they never get to the line and are putrid when they do (68.7%). If you watch a lot of college basketball, these metrics may surprise you as Colgate has been a solid offensive team in recent years. Last season, they shot 51.1% from the field while averaging 78.1 points.

They won a Quad 2 game this season when they went on the road to defeat Vermont in the non-conference.

Contenders: Boston University (15-16, 10-8), American (16-15, 10-8), Lafayette (11-20, 10-8)

Live Long Shot: Navy (13-17, 8-10)

Preview:

If Colgate didn’t exist, this would be a well-balanced league fighting it out for a #16 seed. Colgate is 131st in the NET. The next best school is Lehigh, ranked 274th. They enter the tournament 12-17 (9-9).

Boston University was able to secure the #2 seed, which is important as it keeps them away from Colgate until the last possible moment. The Terriers are one of the worst offensive teams in the NCAA (65.9 points) but they play at a slow tempo to try to win ugly. While the competition wasn’t great, they enter the tournament on a roll (five straight wins).

One of those five wins was over American, the only school besides Colgate with an overall winning record. The Eagles defeated Colgate on the road late in the season and would need to repeat that feat in a potential rematch in the semi-finals. Like other schools in this conference, they aren’t beating you with offense, though leading scorer Matt Rogers did average 16.4 points on 50.4% shooting.

Lafayette won ten of their 11 games within conference play (their only non-conference win was against a non-Division I school). They were hanging tough with Colgate at the top of the conference for a while before losing six of their last seven games. Just like (seemingly) everyone else in this league, they don’t score much and are in no rush on the court. It’s old-school basketball in a shot-clock world. A battle of patience.

Navy won their final four regular season games before knocking off Loyola-Maryland in the first round. Despite their less-than-stellar resume, they will next play #2 Boston College, a team they split with (62-60 win, 74-65 loss).

Bottom Line:

How can anyone bet against Colgate? Their only issue is their inability to get over the hump in the NCAA Tournament. There might be a few more holes to exploit this season than ever before, but who is good enough to exploit them?

Winner: Colgate.

Conference Tournament Preview: Northeast Conference

History: The Northeast Conference was never known for its NCAA Tournament accolades until last season when FDU defeated Purdue in a 16-vs-1 contest. More on that in a second. Robert Morris, no longer in the league, is the all-time Northeast Conference Tournament winner with nine titles. In the last six years, the league has produced six different champions.

Returning Champion: Merrimack. Say what? In case you didn’t remember, FDU did not win the tournament last year. That distinction went to Merrimack, a school that was still ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. FDU went to the NCAA Tournament as the league runner-up.

Format: Eight of the nine teams make the field. This year, Stonehill (who isn’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament) came in 9th place and is left out. This doesn’t mean that shenanigans are impossible yet again, as 4th-seeded Le Moyne is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

Favorite: Merrimack (19-11, 13-3)

Merrimack is no longer in their transition period and is eligible for the NCAA Tournament in 2024. The Warriors have no shame in announcing themselves as a defensive squad, ranking 78th in the country in defensive efficiency. They allow only 66.3 points per game and did a decent job holding Ohio State and Florida in the 70s this season. They were riding high on a 10-game winning streak until losing to Sacred Heart on the final day of the season.

Contenders: Central Connecticut (19-10, 13-3), Sacred Heart (16-15, 10-6), FDU (15-16, 9-7)

Live Long Shot: Wagner (13-15, 7-9)

Preview:

While I installed Merrimack as the favorite, it is a 1A/1B situation with Central Connecticut State. The Blue Devils are the #1 seed since they had a better record against #3 Sacred Heart in the regular season. They finished the season with four straight wins, including what turned out to be the most important game for seeding: A 1-point road victory over Sacred Heart. While they are good at suppressing scoring (66.7), they are not nearly as efficient defensively as Merrimack.

Sacred Heart finished the season on a mini 4-1 run. The Pioneers are 45th in the nation in 3-point percentage (36.6%), though they take few three-point attempts per game (20.5; 244th). They defeated Merrimack on the last day of the season, and that is a potential semi-final matchup.

FDU will need a miracle to replicate last year’s miracle. There isn’t anything in their profile that suggests they can win this tournament, but it is always fair to respect the returning champions. They have two wins this year over teams that finished above .500 (Sacred Heart, St. Peter’s). The Knights will take on Le Moyne in the 4-vs-5 game.

Wagner will play Sacred Heart in the opening round, a team they played tough in two losses. The Seahawks are one of the worst offensive teams in college, averaging only 63.9 points. Their very slow, methodical pace doesn’t allow for much scoring on the other end of the floor either (63.0). They will go as far as Melvin Council Jr. will take them. He has ten straight double-digit scoring efforts and is the only player on the squad averaging double digits.

Bottom Line:

This is typically how the Northeast Conference goes. While many smaller conferences tend to have wacky tournaments, the Northeast Conference has played mostly to the chalk, as a team near the top of the league usually cuts down the nets. No team with a conference record below .500 has ever won this tournament, which dates back to 1982.

Winner: I won’t expect that to happen in 2024, either. While it would seemingly be “fair” for Merrimack to get to the NCAA Tournament one year after missing on a technicality alone, I think Central Connecticut State will be your winner when the dust settles.

Conference Tournament Preview: Big South

History: Winthrop is the king of the Big South, winning 13 of the 38 championships in history. Their longest reign of terror was between 1999 and 2010, when they won the tournament nine times, with a singular NCAA Tournament win in 2007. No team from this conference has won a main-bracket NCAA Tournament game since.

Returning Champion: UNC Asheville dominated the regular season, winning the conference by four games, before winning three close games to take the conference championship. They lost in a 2-vs-15 game to UCLA by 33 points.

Format: All nine teams make the field. The #8 and #9 seeds play in a first-round game to determine who takes on the top seed.

Favorite: High Point (24-7, 13-3) – The Panthers have never made it to the NCAA Tournament. They entered Division I in 1999 and were once coached by Tubby Smith.

This year’s squad lost by eight to Georgia in the non-conference and rattled off nine straight conference wins at one point. This squad can score the basketball, as evidenced by their 84.6 scoring average and three players averaging between 15.5 and 17.8 points per game. They lead the nation in free throws made per game (20.9). Sometimes, a team that puts up a lot of points isn’t all that efficient. That is not the case with High Point, who rank 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency. As you may suspect, defense is not the name of their game.

Contenders: UNC Asheville (20-11, 12-4), Gardner-Webb (16-15, 11-5), Winthrop (17-14, 8-8)

Live Long Shot: USC Upstate (10-19, 5-11)

Preview:

This seems like a good year for High Point to get to the Big Dance, but UNC Asheville won’t be giving up its title easily. The Bulldogs split the season series with High Point and earned a Quad 2 win by beating Appalachian State on a neutral court. Like High Point, they like to score as they average 80.0 points per game with Drew Pember averaging 20.4 points and 7.9 rebounds. They aren’t nearly as efficient as High Point, though they do play slightly better on the defensive end.

Gardner Webb, as you might predict based on their 5-10 non-conference record, played a tough schedule this year. They went 0-7 in Quad 1/2, losing at Baylor by only 15 (that’s not bad). They won’t need to worry about High Point until a potential championship showdown. In the meantime, they might face UNC Asheville in the semifinals, a team they beat twice. While they play at a decent tempo, they are not much of an offensive team.

Winthrop is no longer the conference bully, but they should be respected. The Eagles lost to South Carolina by ten and Florida State by six on the road. While they lost their final two games, they were close against stiff conference competition: Four points to High Point (road) and one point to Gardner Webb. They are a volume free-throw shooting squad, leading the nation in attempts per game. If they were better than 70.2 percent, they would especially be dangerous.

Why is USC Upstate a live longshot? Only for one reason: They are in the 8-9 game. If they win that game, they play High Point, a team they upset on the road this year.

Bottom Line:

High Point is very good and could be a handful for someone in the NCAA Tournament. They are the cream of this crop – a team that is nearly a Top 100 team in the NET (107). Sometimes, I look for a hot team to dethrone the beast – but nobody in this league is hot enough to make you think that is happening.

Winner: High Point

Conference Tournament Preview: Ohio Valley

History: The conference that gave us the Belmont – Murray State rivalry for years (Murray State won this tournament 18 times before moving to the Missouri Valley) looks different nowadays. 11 teams compete in the conference, with Morehead State’s the current leader with five titles. Murray State won an NCAA Tournament game out of this conference in 2022, defeating San Francisco in the first round before losing to upstart St. Peter‘s in the Round of 32. Going back further, Morehead State defeated Louisville in a 13-vs-4 upset in 2011.

Returning Champion: Southeast Missouri State, as the #5 seed, knocked off #2 seed Tennessee Tech in overtime to take last year’s title. They lost to Texas A&M – Corpus Christi in the First Four.

Format: Eight of the 11 schools made the tournament (Tennessee Tech, Southeast Missouri State, and Lindenwood didn’t qualify). The tournament plays a stepladder format, where the top two schools go straight to the semifinals. In the first round, the #5 seed takes on the #8 seed while the #6 seed takes on the #7 seed.

Favorite: Little Rock (20-11, 14-4) – Three teams finished the season 14-4, while another finished 13-5. Given the stepladder format, it makes sense to list the #1 or #2 seed as the favorite. Little Rock wins the spot for me, as they closed the season with nine straight wins and 12 wins in their last 13 games.

Little Rock’s three top scorers are seniors, with Khalen Robinson‘s 15.8 leading the squad. Robinson was a Top 100 recruit for Arkansas back in 2020. He didn’t get much playing time for the Razorbacks or Texas A&M, so he transferred to Little Rock this year.

Contenders: UT-Martin (21-10, 14-4), Morehead State (23-8, 14-4), Western Illinois (20-11, 13-5)

Live Long Shot: Eastern Illinois (14-17, 8-10)

Preview:

The Ohio Valley is a top-heavy conference this season, with three teams tying for the regular-season title. None of the teams pulled off a Quad 1 win.

By the way, #8 seed Southern Indiana (8-23, 5-13) is in its transition period (year 2) and is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament.

UT-Martin has never made it to the NCAA Tournament. The Skyhawks have won seven straight games, including a win over Morehead State. This is an offensive-minded squad that finished 24th in the country with 81.6 points. Furthermore, the Skyhawks averaged the most defensive rebounds in the country (31.1/game). They need good defensive rebounding because the overall team defense is not solid. Two standout guards lead the charge, with Jordan Spears averaging an impressive 21.2 points per game, while 6’7″ Jacob Crews averages 19.3 points and 8.2 rebounds.

Morehead State went through a lull recently when they lost three straight games. The Eagles followed that up by winning their final three games. They played a tough non-conference schedule that included blowout losses to Alabama and Purdue. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but Riley Minix was still able to average 20.5 points.

Western Illinois doesn’t score much, but they do keep opponents off of the scoreboard. The Leathernecks hold opponents to 40.4% shooting and only 29.6% from three-point territory. Against Division I opponents, they topped 80 points only twice. They are one of the best stories in the conference, as they have never made it to the NCAA Tournament and are rarely a top-tier team. Last season’s 16-14 mark was the first time they were over .500 since the 2012-2013 season.

Bottom Line:

I don’t think Western Illinois has the horses to pull off the tournament win, but that would be impressive. I am going with another first-time NCAA Tournament team.

Winner: UT-Martin

Conference Tournament Preview: Horizon League

History: Even though they both left the league eons ago, Butler (7) and Xavier (6) are the top two in conference tournament titles. The active leaders are Milwaukee and Northern Kentucky (4). Nobody from this league has won an NCAA Tournament game since 2011, when Butler made it to the National Championship game.

Returning Champion: Northern Kentucky, as the #4 seed, knocked off Oakland (5), Youngstown State (1), and Cleveland State (3) to take the championship. As a #16 seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Norse played Houston tough, losing by only 11.

Format: All 11 teams make the field, with the top five advancing automatically to the quarterfinals.

Favorite: Oakland (20-11, 15-5) – One of the most balanced conferences in college basketball, the Horizon had eight teams between 15-5 and 11-9. The overall records of those teams ranged between 17-14 and 22-9.

Amongst those teams, Oakland still stands out a tad above the rest. The Grizzles played six Quadrant 1 games, defeating Xavier on the road. In other games, they hung tough with Ohio State (79-73), and Illinois (64-53). They are paced by 6’6″ forward Trey Townsend, who averages 16.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. They enter the tournament on a 7-3 run.

Contenders: Youngstown State (22-9, 14-6), Green Bay (18-13, 13-7), Wright State (18-13, 13-7), Northern Kentucky (17-14, 12-8), Milwaukee (17-14, 12-8), Cleveland State (18-13, 11-9), Purdue-Ft. Wayne (20-11, 11-9)

Live Long Shot: None

Preview:

I normally like to pare down the number of contenders, but how does one do that with these teams? The top eight teams all have legitimate title aspirations. The bottom three teams? Not so much, as they are a combined 17-76 (and Robert Morris has ten of those 17 wins). At the very bottom is Detroit Mercy, a 1-30 squad who happens to have the league’s best scorer (Jayden Stone, at 20.5 ppg).

Youngstown State can score (81.5) and rebound (40.2, 12th in the nation). Coming off the bench, 7’3″ freshman center Gabe Davis averages 2.3 blocks per game, despite only averaging 13.8 minutes. The top five scorers are all seniors, with forward D.J. Burns averaging a double-double (12.9 points/10.8 rebounds). This is a flexible, dangerous squad who lost to Dayton by eight in a road game.

Green Bay doesn’t care so much about the offense, averaging 68.5 points. The Phoenix play around the margins, with an average margin of victory of only 0.4 points. They can win for as long as Noah Reynolds (19.7 points/4.4 assists) wishes to carry them. The problem? He hasn’t played since mid-February, and the squad has been losing by large margins since.

If offense is your thing, you want to root for Wright State, the country’s fifth-best offensive team by points per game (86.1). The Raiders shoot 53.1% from the field, the top number in the nation, and 38.3% from three (11th). Their top two scorers are a pair of senior guards: Trey Calvin (19.6/4.3 assists) and Tanner Holden (16.1/6.3 rebounds).

Northern Kentucky played well down the stretch and split a pair of overtimes games with Oakland. Their quarterfinals opponent is Wright State in the 4/5 game, a team they lost to twice by a combined 13 points. They don’t have Wright State’s explosiveness, but they have an explosive player: 6’2″ senior guard Marques Warrick, who averages 19.9 points per game Their biggest issue is that Sam Vinson has been out since December.

Milwaukee won three straight to close the season, including a 21-point walloping of Green Bay. Dominated by junior guards, the Panthers have a star in guard BJ Freeman, who averages 20.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. Those numbers lead the team. This is a high-tempo school that loves to shoot (62.9 field goal attempts), though they aren’t very good at doing so (44.1%).

Like Oakland, Cleveland State won a Quad 1 game this season, defeating Bradley on the road. They have been alternating wins and losses going back to February 1st (5-4). Senior guard Tristan Enaruna, a former Top 100 recruit for Kansas, has become a big fish in a smaller pond, averaging 20.2 points per game.

Purdue Fort Wayne has four players averaging between 13.3 and 16.2 points per game. The Mastodons piled up wins against bad competition (one of the worst schedules in the country), though they can at least claim they beat a big-conference school (3-26 DePaul). They hit 9.6 three-pointers per game, while averaging 9.5 steals. They are 4-1 in their last five games, and split their games with Oakland (their potential quarterfinal opponent). They do need to be careful, however, as they are in an 8-9 matchup with Robert Morris, who pulled off a split against the Mastodons.

Bottom Line:

Any of the top eight teams can win. Green Bay is probably towards the bottom of the eight, thanks to an injury to their best player. The league ranks 20th best (by NET) in the country, meaning that the winner should be able to avoid the First Four at the very least.

Winner: I am going with the highest-octane offense. Wright State.

Conference Tournament Preview: Sun Belt

History: Georgia State has won this title three times in the last five seasons, though they will not be the favorites to win in 2024. The last time the Sun Belt winner won an NCAA Tournament game was in 2016, when Little Rock knocked off Purdue, 85-83, in two overtimes. Little Rock has since left the conference. Western Kentucky, despite being out of the conference since 2014, has the most conference championships with nine.

Returning Champion: Louisiana, as the #2 seed, avoided the upset bug on their way to defeating the #7 seed (Georgia Southern), the #11 seed (Texas State), and the #8 seed (South Alabama) to take the championship. In the NCAA Tournament, they put a scare into #4 seed Tennessee, ultimately losing 58-55.

Format: All 14 teams make the field, with the top four seeds earning byes to the quarterfinals.

Favorite: Appalachian State (26-5, 16-2) – Close to being a bubble team, the Mountaineers swept mid-major darling James Madison. They rank 26th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, as they need the nation in blocked shots per game and second in defensive rebounds. Their 78.7 scoring average shows that they can hold their own on the offensive side of the floor, though they are not a high-impact 3-point shooting team.

The 26 wins are a new school record and the first time they have won 20+ games since the 2009-2010 season. They are 0-3 all-time in the NCAA Tournament.

Contenders: James Madison (28-3, 15-3), Troy (20-11, 13-5), Louisiana (18-13, 10-8), Arkansas State (16-15, 11-7)

Live Long Shot: Texas State (14-17, 7-11)

Preview:

Appalachian State is trouble – but this tournament has more than one potential NCAA Tournament disrupter.

James Madison captured everyone’s attention when they defeated Michigan State in the season opener. After that win, the Dukes appeared in the AP poll eight straight weeks, peaking at #18 on December 4th. A bad 10-point loss to Southern Mississippi knocked them out of the poll permanently. The Dukes are a high-scoring team, ranked 9th in the nation with 84.6 points per game. Everything runs through 6’6″ junior guard Terrence Edwards, who averages 17.6 points and 3.3 assists per game. After their six-point loss to Appalachian State on January 27th, they have rattled off ten straight wins, scoring 80+ points in their last six contests.

Schedules are weird sometimes. Troy didn’t play James Madison once this year. They played Appalachian State once, beating them 66-62 in January. Given their fortune, you would think they would have played even better than their 13-5 conference mark. The Trojans like tempo in their game, as they are 65th in adjusted tempo while averaging 79.9 points per game. They are on the same side of the bracket as James Madison and have a potential quarterfinals date with Southern Mississippi, who they split with this season.

Louisiana is trying to pull off the repeat. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a junior-laden squad (to say the least), as their top six scorers all fall into that bucket. Looking like a contender most of the year, a late-season 4-game losing streak dropped them down to the #5 seed, meaning they will need to win an extra game in their journey to a championship. Awaiting them in the quarterfinals would be Arkansas State. Unlike Louisiana, the Red Wolves enter the tournament on a hot streak, finishing the season on a 6-1 run to clinch the coveted #4 seed. During that stretch, they defeated Troy twice but lost to Appalachian State by 23 to close out the season.

Texas State is the 11 seed. The Bobcats won their final three games, including the season-ending conquest of Troy, which is who they would face if they can win a pair of games. Offensively, you are looking at one of the worst teams in the nation. However, they can play some defense and they did challenge themselves with a tough non-conference slate that included games against Texas and Houston.

Bottom Line:

I want to see James Madison – Appalachian State III, and there is a very good chance that it will happen. It is a fairly competitive conference, but those two teams have dominated it from the jump. If we get a Part 3, I believe James Madison will finally get over the hump.

Winner: James Madison

Conference Tournament Preview: A-SUN

One of the best parts of the college basketball season is the conference tournaments. I especially love watching the tournaments where only the winner goes to the NCAA Tournament. When Bobby Knight used to say that everyone should be invited to the NCAA Tournament, I always felt that the conference tournaments accomplish that (it is true that some conferences don’t invite all teams to the tournaments, but it is a very low percentage).

The first preview of 2024 will be the Atlantic Sun Conference.

History: In 2013, tournament champion Florida-Gulf Coast became the first #15 seed in history to make it to the Sweet 16. The very next year, #14 Mercer defeated #3 Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The most recent NCAA Tournament conquest came in 2019 when #12 Liberty defeated #5 Mississippi State.

Returning Champion: Kennesaw State, the #1 seed, won three games by a combined 11 points (including two 67-66 wins) to take the tournament. In the NCAA Tournament, they put a deep scare into Xavier before succumbing by five.

Format: Ten of the 12 teams are in the field (Bellarmine and Central Arkansas didn’t make it in 2024). When the tournament gets to the semifinals, they reseed the teams so that the best team remaining plays the 4th best team remaining.

Favorite: Stetson (19-12, 11-5) – The only team in the conference with a Quad 1 win (at UCF), the Hatters will enter this field as the #2 seed. Junior guard Jalen Blackmon is a handful for any team trying to curtail their offense. He averages 21.1 points per game, connecting on just shy of 40% of his three-point attempts. If this team grabs a lead late, Blackmon is the perfect guard as he won’t give up the game on the free throw line (92.1% this year; 91.4% in his career). While they are a solid offensive squad, their defense is easily exposed. According to the KenPom, they are 323rd in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Contenders: Eastern Kentucky (17-13, 12-4), Lipscomb (20-11, 11-5), Austin Peay (17-14, 10-6)

Live Long Shot: Florida Gulf Coast (14-17, 8-8)

Preview:

Stetson has the star scorer and a big quality non-conference win, but does that mean the rest of the conference should go home? Of course not.

Eastern Kentucky came out of the gates flying. The Colonels were 7-0 in conference play heading into February and 9-1 after games of February 7th. While they did enough to hang on for the title down the stretch, they finished with back-to-back losses. Unlike Stetson, Eastern Kentucky relies on a balanced offensive attack as three players average 14+ points per game. Offense is their key, as they average 81.3 points per game, good for 28th in the country.

Lipscomb has the conference’s best NET rating (160th), as they own a decent Quadrant 2 win at Florida State and a three-point loss at Arkansas. They enter the tournament on a 4-game winning streak by a combined 62 points, including wins over Eastern Kentucky and Austin Peay (road). For much of the season, they were paced by a trio of junior guards (Will Pruitt, A.J. McGinnis, and Derrin Boyd). However, Boyd hasn’t played since February 10th. If he was healthy, I likely install this squad as both the favorites and as a team to watch in the NCAA Tournament, given their ability to drain three-pointers (38.1%; 12th in the country). I have no idea if Boyd is coming back or not.

Austin Peay enters the tournament on a 7-1 run, placing them in contention to take the championship. The Governors are a senior-laden operation, as their four top scorers are all in their senior year. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the nation, but (like most of their league brethren), they rely on their offense more than their defense. They rank 33rd in the country in three-point shooting percentage (37.1%), while committing only nine turnovers per game.

Florida Gulf Coast defeated Florida Atlantic this season, a win that has fallen into Quad 2. If they get past Queens in the first round, a date with Stetson would await. During the regular season, the Eagles split with the Hatters, winning at home by 24 while losing on the road by a point.

Bottom Line:

This tournament promises to be close and fun, and I would never count the winner out in the NCAA Tournament. It just feels as if teams in this conference have a knack for driving teams crazy in the Big Dance. If Lipscomb was whole, I would be choosing them. However, I have no idea if they will be or not.

Winner: Stetson

NCAA Basketball 3/2: The Bubble

A look at the NCAA Tournament bubble. Team records and NET rankings are through games on Friday, March 1.

NET, not my bubble preference is how I rank the teams. I have to rank by something, and using the NCAA’s tool seems like a good start.

ACC

In:
North Carolina [22-6 (14-3), Quad 1: 7-4; NET: 9]
Duke [22-6 (13-4), Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 13]
Clemson [20-8 (10-7); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 22]

Bubble:
Wake Forest [18-10 (10-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 27]
Virginia [21-8 (12-6); Quad 1: 3-5; NET: 46]
Pittsburgh [18-10 (9-8); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 49]

North Carolina is a solid #2 seed while Duke appears headed for a #3 seed. Clemson is now a lock, looking at a #5 or #6 seed in the Big Dance.

Wake Forest has a resume with good points and bad points. The Demon Deacons have zero bad losses (12-0 in Quad 3/4) but their road/neutral record (3-10) doesn’t impress, especially since those wins are over Towson, Boston College, and Georgia Tech.

Virginia goes on the road to play Duke on Saturday. If they win, the Cavaliers will be sitting pretty. If they lose, it won’t crush them but ACC Tournament damage would be needed.

Pittsburgh could have added Clemson to their road conquests of Duke and Virginia but fell by seven. Their final three games don’t offer much in terms of resume-boosting, but they can’t afford to lose any of them.

American Athletic

Bubble:
Florida Atlantic [21-7 (11-4); Quad 1: 1-2; NET: 35]
SMU [18-9 (10-5); Quad 1: 0-4; NET: 44]
South Florida [21-5 (14-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 85]

Being ranked in the Top 25 doesn’t mean anything to the committee, but South Florida is emerging as an intriguing story if they don’t win the AAC tournament.

Florida Atlantic has a lot of good in its profile. Their profile has taken a hit thanks to the three teams they beat in the ESPN Events Invitational (Butler, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech) struggling recently. A strong schedule + a win over Arizona should outweigh their two Quad 4 losses, but it is much closer than it needs to be.

SMU is 2-8 in Quad 1/2. The wins were over non-tournament squads (Florida State on the road, Memphis at home). Their profile does not scream NCAA Tournament team.

As mentioned above, South Florida is an interesting story. The Bulls finally earned a Quad 1 win, from a game played weeks ago (their away win over Memphis on 1/18 now qualifies) but suffered a pair of bad Quad 4 losses back in November. One of their biggest issues was something they couldn’t control: They only played Florida Atlantic once, and it was at home. A game at Charlotte (11-1 at home) awaits on Saturday.

Atlantic 10

Bubble:
Dayton [22-6 (12-4), Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 21]

Dayton likely lost any chance they had at the regular-season title with their loss to Loyola-Chicago on Friday. Now, they are in danger of falling to the #4 seed, as they finish the season on 3/8 against VCU. The positives still exist: A top ten non-conference schedule that included wins over St. John’s (neutral), Cincinnati (neutral), and SMU (road). The Flyers also lost by five on the road to Northwestern and 14 on a neutral court to Houston. Beyond that, they have zero Quad 3/4 losses. It all adds up to a resume that never required an A-10 title to justify its worthiness. They should be in, but don’t want to tempt fate by losing at St. Louis on Tuesday.

Richmond (NET: 72), VCU (NET: 74), and Loyola-Chicago (NET: 93) are three solid teams with seasons to be proud of, but all three will likely require a conference tournament crown to get in. It has been a season of close calls for VCU, as they have losses to Iowa State (by four), Boise State (four), and Memphis (five). What happens if they complete a sweep of Dayton on March 8th? We’ll see if that can at least get them a closer bubble look.

Big 12

In:
Houston [25-3 (12-3), Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 1]
Iowa State [22-6 (11-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 8]
BYU [20-8 (8-7), Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 10]
Baylor [19-8 (9-6); Quad 1: 6-7; NET: 14]
Kansas [21-7 (9-6); Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 17]

Bubble
Texas [18-10 (7-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 33]
TCU [19-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 37]
Oklahoma [19-9 (7-8); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 41]
Texas Tech [19-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 42]
Cincinnati [16-12 (5-10); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 45]

I am sure more than one person said “Let’s see how Houston does when they join a deep conference!” Well, the Cougars joined the toughest conference in America and continue to dominate. Is this their year?

Texas jumped seven places in the NET to jump to the top of the bubble list. The Longhorns are 4-5 in road games, but only one of those games was against a bad team (West Virginia). The funny thing is that West Virginia won that game. The committee loves quality road wins, and that will carry Texas safely into the tourney.

TCU can do themselves a major favor by beating BYU on the road Saturday If they lose that game, the Horned Frogs would be wise to not lose to West Virginia or UCF. In other words, they are on solid ground but they can’t give the committee a reason for using their atrocious non-conference slate against them.

Oklahoma is 1-3 during a tough stretch of their schedule (the one win was against the not-so-good team (Oklahoma State) in overtime). The Sooners close with Houston, Cincinnati, and Texas. Would an 0-3 finish followed by a first-round loss in the Big 12 tournament place them in danger?

Texas Tech didn’t earn any quality wins in the non-conference but has quality in-conference wins. For the sake of their fans’ sanity, they would be wise to win the road games against West Virginia and Oklahoma State.

Cincinnati is teetering on extinction. The Bearcats are 3-8 in their last 11 games, with losses to West Virginia and Oklahoma State mixed in. When the only thing that is keeping you afloat is the conference you play in, that’s not a good sign.

Big East

In:
UConn [25-3 (15-2); Quad 1: 9-3; NET: 4]
Marquette [22-6 (13-4); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 11]
Creighton [21-8 (12-6); Quad 1: 6-5; NET: 12]

Bubble:
Villanova [16-12 (9-8); Quad 1: 3-8; NET: 32]
St. John’s [17-12 (9-9); Quad 1: 4-9; NET: 39]
Providence [18-10 (9-8); Quad 1: 5-7; NET: 56]
Seton Hall [18-10 (11-6); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 64]
Butler [16-13 (7-11); Quad 1: 3-11; NET: 69]

This puzzle is hardly being solved. The only thing for certain is that the Big East is a 3-team league this season. Everyone else is fighting for whatever number of crumbs the committee wishes to throw their way. If I had to place percentages on it: 5-bid league: 65%; 6-bid league: 30%; 7-bid league: 5%.

Villanova mauled Georgetown, which is exactly what they needed to do. Their remaining three games include two road contests (Providence, Seton Hall) and one home contest (Creighton). Suffice it to say, 16-15 (9-11) isn’t going to impress the committee, so they should win at least one of these games + do some Big East Tournament damage.

St. John’s earned a big road win over Butler, and their neutral court win over Utah months ago has risen (barely) into Quad 1. The Red Storm have two games remaining (at DePaul, Georgetown). Those games can only hurt them, not help them, so they will need to beat a strong team in the Big East Tournament to have a shot.

How well have the bubble teams played against the “Big Three” in the Big East? For Providence, the answer is very well. The Friars are 2-2 with one game left (home against UConn). The Friars have zero bad losses. If they sweep their two remaining home games, lock them in. Those games are against Villanova and UConn, so good luck.

Seton Hall had no answers in their loss to Creighton on Wednesday. If they complete the sweep of UConn on Sunday, everything else is gravy. If not, a 2-1 finish leaves them at 20-11 (13-7), which would be a solid case for an at-large heading into the Big East Tournament.

When Butler defeated Creighton on the road on February 2nd, they were 15-7 and looked like a solid NCAA Tournament team. The Bulldogs are 1-6 since, as a tough schedule caught up to them. They will need a solid Big East Tournament run.

Big Ten

In:
Purdue [25-3 (14-3); Quad 1: 9-3; NET: 2]
Illinois [21-7 (12-5); Quad 1: 4-5; NET: 16]
Wisconsin [18-10 (10-7); Quad 1: 6-6; NET: 23]
Michigan State [17-11 (9-8); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 24]

Bubble:
Nebraska [20-9 (10-8); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 43]
Northwestern [20-8 (11-6); Quad 1: 5-5; NET: 48]
Iowa [17-12 (9-9); Quad 1: 2-8; NET: 60]
Ohio State [17-12 (7-11); Quad 1: 3-6; NET: 63]

The Big Ten appears destined for six bids. Can they earn a 7th? Iowa and Ohio State are trying to make their cases.

Nebraska shouldn’t feel 100% comfortable themselves. Their loss to Ohio State dropped them to 2-8 in road games and their non-conference schedule wasn’t good. That said, the Cornhuskers have zero bad losses. Their final two games (Rutgers, at Michigan) are games they should win.

Northwestern has an overtime win and loss against Purdue and an impressive win over Dayton in the non-conference (a much-needed win, since their non-conference schedule was bad). The Wildcats are as good of a story as any this season, and a 2-1 finish probably clinches a bid.

Iowa has work to do. Part of that work includes winning their final two games: Northwestern (road), and Illinois. The KenPom (50th) likes them more than the NET.

Ohio State is starting to roll at the right time. The Buckeyes are 3-1 in their last four games, with the three wins all of the high quality (Purdue, Michigan State, Nebraska). From 1/6-2/6, they went 1-8 with losses to Michigan (ouch) and Indiana mixed in. They can point to their win over Alabama as a counter to that terrible stretch. It should be noted that they only have one true road win – their 2/25 defeat of Michigan State.

Ivy League

Bubble:
Princeton [22-3 (10-2); Quad 1: 0-0; NET: 51]

The winners of seven straight, the Tigers have a big game against Cornell on Saturday. The winner will likely earn at least a share of the regular-season title (along with Harvard, also 10-2). It is important to earn the #1 seed in the tournament because there are three strong teams in this league. As of this moment, the top seed would play #4 Brown (9-17; NET: 219).

Missouri Valley

Bubble:
Indiana State [25-5 (16-3); Quad 1: 1-3; NET: 28]
Drake [24-6 (15-4); Quad 1: 3-1; NET: 52]

Indiana State jumped up five places in the NET, which is important. No Top 30 team in the NET has ever been left out of the tournament. That said, if they lose in the conference tournament, their NET will likely drop. Anyway, the Sycamores have won three straight by a combined 52 points as they are seemingly over their malaise. They close the season on Sunday against Murray State.

Drake came close to wiping themselves off the map but outlasted UIC 107-105 in three overtimes. Their season-closing game against Bradley on Sunday is a Quad 2 contest. Drake enters the game on a 20-game home winning streak.

Mountain West

In:
San Diego State [22-7 (11-5); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 18]

Bubble:
New Mexico [21-7 (9-6); Quad 1: 3-4; NET: 25]
Boise State [20-8 (11-4); Quad 1: 5-4; NET: 26]
Colorado State [20-9 (8-8); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 29]
Utah State [24-5 (12-4); Quad 1: 4-4; NET: 36]
Nevada [24-6 (11-5); Quad 1: 6-4; NET: 40]
UNLV [17-10 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-3; NET: 81]

I don’t care what league your favorite team is in – nothing beats the Mountain West for pure insanity. Five teams are either 12-4, 11-4, 11-5, or 10-5 with a few games left to go.

All the bunching up makes it hard to differentiate between resumes. New Mexico was locked in by me until the weird home loss to Air Force. They haven’t played since, but better be ready for Saturday’s road contest against Boise State.

Speaking of Boise State, the Broncos have taken care of the easier part of their schedule, going 4-0 against Fresno State, San Jose State, Wyoming, and Air Force. They finish with a flurry of toughies: New Mexico, Nevada, and San Diego State (road).

Colorado State has lost three in a row, knocking them out of the conference race. To their credit, all three losses were close (a combined 11 points). The Rams should finish 22-8, as their final two games are against Wyoming and Air Force.

Utah State gave their supporters a heart attack before pulling through to beat Fresno State in overtime. As you can see, the teams at the bottom of the conference aren’t rolling over for the “big boys.” The Aggies finish their season with games against San Jose State and New Mexico.

Nevada was 3-4 in conference play at one point. The Wolf Pack are on a 8-1 run since and have the most Quad 1 wins in the league. Their NET may be the second worst amongst the bubble teams, but they are in very good shape.

UNLV is all about the potential for chaos. Their final two games are against San Diego State and Nevada, giving them a chance at seven Quad 1 wins. Their strong non-conference schedule included a win over Creighton and a 2-OT loss to St. Mary’s. The Rebels are where they are because of three losses: Southern, Loyola Marymount, and Air Force. The Air Force loss was by 32 at home. While this might not be a big detail, they still have a shot to win the regular-season conference title. I can see the committee rewarding a shock bid, but a lot of things still need to go right.

Pac-12

In:
Arizona [22-6 (13-4); Quad 1: 8-3; NET: 3]
Washington State [22-7 (13-5); Quad 1: 6-3; NET: 38]

Bubble:
Colorado [19-9 (10-7); Quad 1: 1-5; NET: 30]
Utah [17-11 (8-9); Quad 1: 4-7; NET: 50]
Oregon [19-9 (11-6); Quad 1: 2-4; NET: 65]

A NET of 39 is not typically something one should lock-in, but that sweep of Arizona will shine a big light in the committee’s eyes. Washington State must avoid losing to UCLA/Washington in the final two games. Washington has played a lot of close games against tough competition, so that is no gimmie.

Colorado finishes their season on the road against the two Oregon schools. Their resume is iffy (despite having a better NET than Washington State) because of that singular Quad 1 win. Their NET is lifted by their zero Quad 3/4 losses + seven wins in Quad 2. It is far from a slam dunk for the Buffaloes.

Utah has only two road wins (one of which is high quality – St. Mary’s). The Utes can claim strong non-conference conquests, as they defeated St. Mary’s, BYU, and Wake Forest. They split with Colorado and Washington State while taking Arizona to three overtimes on 2/8. They check a lot of boxes, but work is required in the Pac-12 tournament. Like Colorado, they travel to Oregon to play the two Oregon schools to finish off the season.

A team like Oregon just wants a chance to prove themselves. Well, here is their chance: Their final three games are Arizona (road), Colorado, and Utah. The Ducks defeated nobody of consequence in the non-conference, so they need to do some late-season damage.

SEC

In:
Tennessee [22-6 (12-3), Quad 1: 5-5; NET: 5]
Alabama [20-8 (12-3); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 6]
Auburn [21-7 (10-5); Quad 1: 1-7; NET: 7]
Kentucky [20-8 (10-5); Quad 1: 5-5; NET: 20]

Bubble:
Mississippi State [19-9 (8-7); Quad 1: 4-6; NET: 31]
Florida [20-8 (10-5); Quad 1: 3-7; NET: 34]
South Carolina [23-5 (11-4); Quad 1: 3-3; NET: 47]
Texas A&M [15-13 (6-9); Quad 1: 5-6; NET: 58]
Ole Miss [19-9 (6-9); Quad 1: 2-7; NET: 78]

Draw a bold line in ink underneath South Carolina. The seven teams above that line are getting their names called on Selection Sunday. The two teams under them need to fix things in a hurry.

Mississippi State won five in a row against teams they were supposed to beat before falling to Kentucky by two at home. Two of their Quad 1 wins are in the top ten, which is impressive. Their losses to Georgia Tech (road) and Southern are damaging but they have done enough to cover for that. All this said, their tough end-of-the-season schedule continues as their final three games are against Auburn (road), Texas A&M (road), and South Carolina.

Florida has zero bad losses, though their best non-conference win was on a neutral court against Pittsburgh. A 20/10 SEC team is not likely to be left out.

That bodes well for South Carolina as well. The computers have dinged the Gamecocks for most of the season, and for good reason as they played a bad non-conference schedule. They are 10-3 on road/neutral courts, including recent back-to-back wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M. It would feel like a travesty if they didn’t get in.

Texas A&M has lost five in a row at the worst possible time. Their resume is drowning, though they can still claim those five Quad 1 wins on their tax return. The Aggies defeated Ohio State and SMU in non-conference road games and lost to Houston by only four on a neutral court. They can be a high-loss at-large but they have to stop this gushing wound in a hurry.

Ole Miss is 14-0 in Quad 3/4 (yay!), but the rest of the resume has tanked. Their only win in February came against Missouri. To be fair to the Rebels, February was probably the toughest month of games that any team in the country was asked to play. However, you have to win at least a few of them.

Southland

Bubble:

McNeese [25-3 (14-1); Quad 1: 1-0; NET: 55]

The Cowboys will be 28-3 (unless something bizarre happens) entering the Southland Tournament. They played a solid non-conference schedule, but don’t have that “Look at us!” win to point to. Furthermore, the Southland is the 27th-ranked conference (out of 33). Essentially, McNeese is a rare outlier as the Southland rarely (never?) has bubble teams.

Their best win was on the road against VCU, which keeps teetering between a weak Quad 1 and a strong Quad 2. We all love to see these teams in the NCAA Tournament, so let’s hope they can win their conference tournament.

Sun Belt

Bubble:

James Madison [28-3 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 53]

West Coast

In:

St. Mary’s [24-6 (15-0); Quad 1: 4-2; NET: 15]

Bubble:

Gonzaga [23-6 (13-2); Quad 1: 2-5; NET: 19]

St. Mary’s needs to beat Gonzaga on Saturday to complete their unbeaten conference season.

While Gonzaga is locked into the #2 seed, it is a chance at a huge road win for the Bulldogs. Adding St. Mary’s to their conquests of Kentucky and San Francisco will probably clinch their spot.

San Francisco falls off the bubble as their loss to Gonzaga will be too much to overcome. The Dons are the third-best team in the conference, but the gap between them and the top two still feels significant.

WAC

Bubble:

Grand Canyon [25-4 (15-3); Quad 1: 1-1; NET: 54]

Grand Canyon deserves their chance to pull off a NCAA Tournament upset in 2024. Their path to doing that comes through winning the conference tournament.