My final field of 68 is below. Teams in bold and italics are the bubble squads.
If you don’t want to go through all of it, here is my bubble:
In: Dayton, Florida Atlantic, Colorado State, Texas A&M, TCU, Seton Hall
Out: St. John’s, Oklahoma, Virginia, Indiana State
This is not an easy bubble to sort through. You can find points and counterpoints for every team above. Seton Hall has a high NET. The Pirates also beat UConn and Marquette, went 2-1 against St. John’s, and played a 3-OT game against Creighton that had its share of controversy.
So, what works against them? They didn’t play well in the non-conference. So, how do you weigh neutral court losses to Iowa and USC against going 13-7 in the Big East? Like every team, they could only play DePaul and Georgetown twice. Their other nine wins are quality.
Meanwhile, St. John’s has a better NET and a non-conference win over Utah. However, when it came to playing UConn, Marquette, and Creighton, they went 1-5 on top of their 1-2 mark against Seton Hall. This is a case where Seton Hall, by a whisker, outshines St. John’s despite the Red Storm’s better NET.
Oklahoma and TCU required a similar scrub. Neither team played a strong non-conference slate. TCU has an extra Quad 1 win, a slightly better NET, and nine neutral/road wins (Oklahoma has six). Both teams could be in, but Oklahoma’s resume is not quite there.
Indiana State, in many years, would get heavy consideration. I don’t see them surviving all the weekend chaos. Dayton and Florida Atlantic? Let’s say that Florida Atlantic should thank the basketball gods for that win over Arizona. However, the Owls also defeated Texas A&M, a team that improved their resume late.
Full field:
Atlantic Sun (1):
Auto: Stetson
America East (1):
Auto: Vermont
AAC (2):
Auto: UAB
In: Florida Atlantic
Out: South Florida
A-10 (2):
Auto: Duquesne
In: Dayton
Atlantic Coast (4):
Auto: North Carolina State
In: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Out: Virginia, Wake Forest, Pitt
Big 12 (8)
Auto: Iowa State
In; Houston, Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU, Kansas, Texas, TCU
Out: Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Kansas State
Big East (4)
Auto: UConn
In: Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall
Out: St. John’s, Providence, Villanova, Butler
Big Sky (1)
Auto: Montana State
Big South (1)
Auto: Longwood
Big Ten (6)
Auto: Illinois
In: Purdue, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State
Out: Iowa, Ohio State
Big West (1)
Auto: Long Beach State
CAA (1)
Auto: Charleston
Conference USA (1)
Auto: Western Kentucky
Horizon (1)
Auto: Oakland
Ivy League (1)
Auto: Yale
Out: Princeton
Metro (1)
Auto: St. Peter’s
Mid-American (1)
Auto: Akron
MEAC (1)
Auto: Howard
Missouri Valley (1)
Auto: Drake
Out: Indiana State
Mountain West (6)
Auto: New Mexico
In: San Diego State, Nevada, Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State
Northeast (1)
Auto: Wagner
Ohio Valley (1)
Auto: Morehead State
Pac-12 (4)
Auto: Oregon
In: Arizona, Washington State, Colorado
Out: Utah
Patriot (1)
Auto: Colgate
SEC (8)
Auto: Auburn
In: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Southern (1)
Auto: Samford
Southland (1)
Auto: McNeese
SWAC (1)
Auto: Grambling
Summit (1)
Auto: South Dakota State
Sun Belt (1)
Auto: James Madison
West Coast (2)
Auto: Saint Mary’s
In: Gonzaga
WAC (1)
Auto: Grand Canyon
#1 seeds (in order):
UConn, Purdue, Houston, North Carolina
North Carolina over Arizona because:
– Nine Quad 1 wins (Arizona has eight)
– Zero Quad 3/4 losses (Arizona has one)
Arizona’s counterpoint:
– Better NET (4th vs. 7th)
– Better KenPom (6th vs. 9th)
– Better non-conference schedule
Arizona gets neutralized because one of their most impressive non-conference wins (road against Duke) is counteracted by North Carolina going 2-0 against Duke.
North Carolina over Iowa State because:
– The non-conference schedule ranking is absurd. No matter which computer you use, North Carolina’s non-conference schedule is approximately 300 places better than Iowa State’s. It’s a testament to how well Iowa State played in the Big 12 (plus winning the tournament) that they are even in a #1 seed conversation.
Iowa State’s counterpoint:
– 16 Quad 1 games (10-6). North Carolina had 12 (9-3)
– Won the Big 12 conference tournament. The Big 12 has widely been considered the best conference in basketball.
– Their two wins over Houston were of higher difficulty than North Carolina’s two wins over Duke.
The NET and KenPom rankings are close, with North Carolina a hair better in the NET and Iowa State a few hairs better in the KenPom.
This all comes down to whether the committee values a tougher non-conference schedule vs. the team that won the toughest conference.
I am going with the former.