History: Kentucky has 32 titles. The rest of the conference has 31. The Wildcats haven’t won since 2018.
No team has pulled off the SEC Tournament/NCAA Tournament double since 2007 when Florida accomplished the feat for the second straight year.
Returning Champion: Alabama
The Crimson Tide won their eighth championship. As the #1 seed, they won three games by a combined 63 points. In the final, they mauled #2 Texas A&M, 82-63. As the #1 seed in the South Region, they continued their dominance with back-to-back slaughters of Texas A&M – Corpus Christi and Maryland. However, in the Sweet 16, they ran into upstart San Diego State, who beat them by seven.
Format: All 14 teams make the field (yes, including 0-18 Missouri). The top four teams are automatically placed in the quarterfinals.
Favorite: Tennessee (24-7, 14-4)
The Volunteers are in the running for the 4th #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Before losing to Kentucky in the season finale, they were on a 7-game winning streak that featured wins over Texas A&M, Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina.
Ranked #5 in the KenPom, Tennessee is third in adjusted defensive efficiency. On offense, they average 80.2 points, thanks to senior guard Dalton Knecht, who averages 21.4 points on 47.4% shooting (40.5% from three).
Contenders: Kentucky (23-8, 13-5), Alabama (21-10, 13-5), Auburn (24-7, 13-5), South Carolina (25-6, 13-5), Florida (21-10, 11-7)
Live Long Shot: Arkansas (15-16, 6-12)
Preview:
Kentucky is flying. After losing a road game to LSU on 2/21, the Wildcats finished with five straight wins. Amongst those wins are conquests of Alabama, Mississippi State (road), and Tennessee (road). For most of the season, Kentucky was all about their offense. Their 89.5 average is second in the nation and their 3-point shooting percentage (41.2%) is the country’s top number. While their defense won’t be their calling card, they played better down the stretch. When you score like the Wildcats, you don’t need a top defense – you need a competent one. If they keep up their recent play, they have a competent one.
Alabama doesn’t know what defense is. The nation’s top-scoring team (90.8), their defense allows 80.4 (352nd). Despite how awful that is, their defensive efficiency is just outside the Top 100 (hardly great). The Crimson Tide is paced by senior guard Mark Sears (21.1 points (50.6% FG)/4.1 assists/4.0 rebounds). The key is to force teams to play at their frantic pace. They struggled to win against the top competition on their non-conference schedule, with a 102-80 win over Indiana State ranking as their best.
Auburn had a strange season. The Tigers, consistently a Top 10 NET squad, won only one Quad 1 game – a home conquest of Alabama. However, they went 9-0 in Quad 2. Like Kentucky and Alabama, the Tigers like to score (83.5; 13th in the country). In addition, they ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, allowing them to rank 4th in the KenPom. Essentially, Auburn is a Final Four threat that couldn’t get over the Quad 1 hump. We’ll see if they can turn that around.
South Carolina is one of the country’s most surprising teams. Their poor non-conference schedule hid how good they were early in the season. The Gamecocks were the first team to beat Tennessee on the road and they finished the season on a 4-1 run that included wins over Ole Miss (road), Texas A&M (road), Florida, and Mississippi State (road). In-conference road wins are gold, and they piled up an impressive array of them. They are likely on the second tier (the KenPom and NET aren’t fond of them), but they have proven the doubters wrong all year.
Florida finished their season with a 79-78 loss to Vanderbilt. It was their first Quad 3/4 loss, but it doesn’t damage their profile much. With a balanced offensive attack, the Gators average 84.9 points (7th) as they like to play at a high tempo. They rank first in the country in field goal attempts (65.6), shooting 45.7%. This is all made possible by being the country’s second-best offensive-rebounding squad (15.2).
Arkansas is supposed to be an NCAA Tournament team. An early-season win over Duke likely had them dreaming of Final Four possibilities. It wasn’t meant to be, as they struggled inside the conference. Maybe a “nothing to lose” attitude can catapult them to a run. If they beat Vanderbilt, their path includes upstart South Carolina and Quad 1-challenged Auburn. At the very least, you can see a path to a run.
Bottom Line:
According to the NET, the SEC has three top teams and a 4th (Kentucky) that is in the top 20. This tournament has the makings of a good one.
Winner: Kentucky